19:10 UTC
Recovery leg off cycle low inside broader post-ATH decline · RSI 68 · price 86,264.00
Q3 2026 base broken higher in August; higher lows since, price now above the 38.2% retracement.
The regime shifted from a post-ATH decline to a recovery in mid-August 2026. The decline ran from the October 2025 peak near 126,170 to a cycle low at 57,741 in late Q2, and a single-week range break from the 58k–67k Q3 base marked the turn. The September low at 74,903 held above the breakout zone. Price has reclaimed the W1 EMA50 (ema50 ~81,345) for the first time since late 2025 and closed above the fib 38.2% at 83,882, with the swing high at 87,273 capping so far. RSI near 68 is approaching overbought without confirming it, while a hawkish Fed and a USD near 18-month highs act as macro headwinds against the advance.
What it said to watch
- Weekly close above the 87,273 swing high opens the fib 50% near 91,957 and the 90,000 psych level; the jan high at 97,709 sits beyond
- Weekly close back below the ema50 near 81,345 would undercut the recovery read
- Loss of the 74,903 sept low would put the Q3 base and the 57,741 cycle low back in focus
- US CPI on Oct 14 (f/c 3.6% y/y), plus Fed speakers Hammack, Waller and Bowman beforehand, could materially shift this read via hike pricing and USD strength
- RSI pushing above 70 into the fib 50% would mark the first overbought W1 reading of this recovery