21:10 UTC
Downtrend, rebounding off swing low · RSI 56 · price 83,602.93
Lower highs from 87,180; failed break of Sept floor.
Lower highs at 87,180, 86,870 and 86,525 frame the window. The early-October slide broke the sept floor near 82,570 and reached an 80,264 swing low, then reclaimed the old range. Thin weekend trade lifted price to the 50% retracement of the drop, with the 84,110 rebound high capping and price pressing the EMA50, while the EMA20 stays below the EMA50 and ATR has compressed sharply from the sell-off. A firm USD on a hawkish Fed and euro-debt stress frames the backdrop into Wednesday's US CPI.
What it said to watch
- H4 close above the fib 61.8% at 84,344 and the 84,110 rebound high would open the 85,500 breakdown level
- Failure back below the sept floor at 82,570 and the 82,200 weekend low revives the 80,264 swing low
- EMA20 crossing back above EMA50 would challenge the lower-highs read
- US CPI Wed Oct 14 12:30 UTC (f/c 3.6%) could materially shift this read; thin weekend liquidity can exaggerate wicks before then