21:10 UTC
Uptrend since mid-August, momentum fading below 87K · RSI 44 · price 82,918.68
Higher-low chain intact; 82.5–87.3K range floor broken, now being retested.
BTC has been in an uptrend since the mid-August breakout from the 62–66K base, with higher lows at the 74.9K sept low and the 80.3K swing low this week. Three daily tests of 87K since late September formed a triple top that capped the 82.5–87.3K range. Firm USD on euro-debt stress and hawkish FOMC minutes drove midweek closes below the range floor, but the drop stalled at the swing low, near the 50% retracement of the Sept swing. Price is back at the 82.5K range floor, below the ema20 near 83.9K but above EMA50 around 81K, with RSI near 44.
What it said to watch
- Daily close below the 80,263 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the sept low at 74,902
- Sustained closes above the ema20 near 83,900 would turn the break of the range floor into a false break
- Daily close above the 87,273 triple top resumes the uptrend sequence
- US CPI Wed Oct 14 12:30 UTC (f/c 3.6%) could materially shift this read, with Fed's Waller and Bowman speaking ahead of it