Lower high at 84,078 under the 84,258 week high; higher low at 82,910.
Sunday afternoon's breakout from the 83,000 base ran to an 84,258 week high on Monday. A sell-off from London into NY then swept to an 80,965 week low in Tuesday's Asian hours. The V-shaped recovery stalled at the 84,078 Tuesday high, a lower high, and price has since consolidated between 82,910 and 83,780, with the swing low holding at the 38.2% fib of the week-low recovery and the higher-lows line intact. Price sits back above EMA(20) with RSI(14) flat near 52, while a firm USD and hawkish Fed pricing into CPI keep upside capped below the lower high.
What it said to watch
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% m/m) could materially shift this read; a hot core is the cited headwind
H1 close below the 82,910 swing low breaks the higher-lows line and exposes the 80,965 week low
Acceptance above the 83,780 lower high and the 84,078 Tuesday high reopens the 84,258 week high and the lower-highs line
Loss of EMA(20) near 83,260 returns price to the middle of the range
22:04 UTC
Range after V-shaped recovery, lower highs · RSI 49 · price 83,354.20
Lower highs from week high compressing above 82910-83055 base.
Monday's selloff from the 84258 week high ran through the London and NY sessions to an 80965 week low late in US hours, before a V-shaped recovery in Asia retraced most of the drop. The rally met rejection at 84078, a lower high, and Tuesday's NY dip held 82910, the 38.2% fib of that recovery, with the Tue high at 83778 capping since. Price sits marginally above the flattening EMA(20) and EMA(50), RSI(14) is near 49, and the firm USD and pre-CPI caution leave the hourly chart compressing between the Tue low at 83055 and the lower-highs line.
Support: 83,055.00, 82,910.00, 80,965.00
Resistance: 83,778.00, 84,078.00, 84,258.00
What it said to watch
Hourly close above 83778 (tue high) and the lower-highs line opens a retest of 84078-84258
Failure to hold 82910 (38.2% fib) exposes Monday's 82264-82300 lows and then the 80965 week low
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC: core vs 0.2% m/m forecast could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 84258 week high; higher low at 82910 after 80965 false break.
BTC broke out of a quiet weekend range on Sunday afternoon and set the week high at 84258 into Monday's London open. A Monday NY selloff then ran into Tuesday's Asian session, with a false break below the 82300 lows to the 80965 week low that was reclaimed within two bars. The rebound stalled at the 84080 tue high at London open, and price has since compressed under an 83780 lower high while the 82910 swing low held at the 38.2% fib; price sits just above ema20 near 83210 with RSI(14) at 56 as a firm USD keeps the tape cautious ahead of CPI.
Support: 83,210.00, 82,910.00, 80,965.00
Resistance: 83,780.00, 84,080.00, 84,258.00
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 83780 lower high and the 84080 tue high reopens the 84258 week high
Failure to hold the 82910 swing low (38.2% fib) exposes the 50% retracement near 82520 and then the 80965 week low
Repeated H1 closes below the ema20 near 83210 would shift the consolidation toward the 82910 swing low
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (core m/m f/c 0.2%) could materially shift this read through the USD
20:04 UTC
Range after V-shaped recovery, momentum fading · RSI 53 · price 83,206.37
Lower highs since Tuesday's 84078 peak, coiling on EMA20/EMA50.
The week high at 84258 printed in Monday's London session before a NY-led slide broke the 82264 Monday low and extended into Asian hours to the 80965 week low, which was reclaimed within two bars. Tuesday's recovery stalled at 84078, a lower high, and NY hours have added lower highs at 83779 and 83652, with a rejection below the 83685 weekly open. Price is now coiling around EMA20/EMA50 near 83150, with the fib 38.2% at 82890 lining up with today's NY low. With no BTC-specific news and a firm USD into CPI, RSI(14) sits neutral near 53 and the 82900–84100 range is intact.
Support: 82,890.00, 82,264.00, 80,965.00
Resistance: 83,685.00, 84,078.00, 84,258.00
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 84078 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence and opens the 84258 week high
Failure to hold the fib 38.2% near 82890 exposes the 82264 monday low and the 0.5 retracement near 82520
Repeated rejection below the 83685 weekly open keeps the trendline of lower highs in control
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (~16h) could materially shift this read. A hot core print adds to USD strength, while a soft core print eases it
Wide 82,300–84,250 range; V-recovery from 80,965 sweep now fading.
Sunday's NY-hours breakout from the 82,900–83,100 weekend range topped at the 84,258 week high on Monday. A selloff from London into NY then broke the 82,300 range floor and printed an 80,965 week low at Tuesday's Asia open, before a V-shaped rebound. Tuesday's London high at 84,078 and NY high at the 83,779 lower high form a descending sequence. Price has slipped back under a flattening EMA(20) near 83,160, with RSI(14) back at 50. The Tuesday low at 82,910 sits on the 38.2% fib of the rebound, and with no BTC-specific news the tape is tracking the firm-USD, pre-CPI tone.
What it said to watch
Hourly close below the 82,910 tuesday low and 38.2% fib exposes the 82,300 range floor
Loss of the 82,300 range floor puts the 80,965 week low back in focus
Close above the 83,779 lower high breaks the lower-highs sequence and reopens 84,078–84,258 week high
Sustained hold back above ema20 (~83,160) would neutralise the fading read
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (core m/m f/c 0.2%) could materially shift this read; a hot core print feeds the firm-USD backdrop
Lower highs at 84,258, 84,078 and 83,779 inside an 80,965–84,258 range.
Sunday's breakout above 83,100 stalled at the 84,258 week high into Monday's London open. NY-hours selling then extended into a late flush to the 80,965 week low, which was reclaimed during the Asia session. Tuesday's rebound capped at 84,078 and a second lower high formed at the 83,779 ny high, with price now back under the ema20 near 83,175 and testing the 38.2% rebound fib around the 82,910 day low. RSI(14) near 43 and a firmly bid dollar into Wednesday's US CPI leave the tape compressing beneath lower highs.
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 82,910 day low and 38.2% rebound fib exposes the 82,264 monday low
Failure to hold 82,264 brings the 80,965 week low back into view
Reclaiming the ema20 and closing above the 83,779 ny high breaks the lower-highs sequence
Close above the 84,258 week high invalidates the range top
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% MoM) could materially shift this read; Bowman speaks at 09:40 UTC beforehand
17:06 UTC
Two-way range after V-shaped recovery · RSI 51 · price 83,228.34
Lower high under 84,258; 83,055–83,779 range.
Sunday afternoon's jump through the weekend range carried to a week high at 84,258 into Monday's London open. A two-stage selloff through NY and late Monday then broke the 82,264 Monday low and printed 80,965 early in Tuesday's Asia session. That false break reversed sharply but stalled at an 84,078 lower high at London open, and price has since held an 83,055–83,779 range through London and NY. RSI(14) is flat near 50 and price is pinned to EMA(20) and EMA(50) around 83,130–83,210, as a firm USD caps follow-through ahead of Wednesday's CPI.
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 83,779 range high reopens the 84,078 lower high and the 84,258 week high; the lower highs line caps that path
Loss of the 83,055 range low exposes the 38.2% tue rebound fib near 82,890 and the 82,264 mon low
A break below the 80,965 tue low invalidates the false break read
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (core MoM f/c 0.2%) and Fed's Bowman (09:40 and 14:55 UTC) could materially shift this read
16:04 UTC
Recovering from week low, stalling below weekly open · RSI 57 · price 83,436.11
V-shaped reclaim of Monday lows, now ranging 83,055–83,780 with a lower high at 84,078 under the 84,258 week high.
BTC slid from Monday's 84,258 week high through London and NY hours. The decline extended late in the NY session to a week low at 80,965, a sweep of Monday's 82,260–82,300 lows, before an Asia-session reversal ran to a lower high at 84,078 into Tuesday's London open. Since then price has held an 83,055–83,780 range, sitting above EMA(20) near 83,200 but below the weekly open at 83,685, with RSI(14) flattening in the high 50s as a firm USD and hawkish-Fed pricing weigh in the absence of BTC-specific news.
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 83,055 range low and EMA(20) exposes the 82,890 area (38.2% of the recovery) and Monday's 82,300 lows
Acceptance back above the weekly open at 83,685 and a break of the 84,078 lower high would challenge the 84,258 week high and the lower-highs trendline
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (core m/m f/c 0.2%) could materially shift this read via the USD and yields
Failure to hold above the 80,965 week low would negate the sweep-and-reclaim read
Lower highs at 84,258 and 84,078 above a 83,055 higher low; compressing.
Monday's London-open week high at 84,258 gave way to a slide through NY hours and an Asia-session flush to an 80,965 week low below Friday's 82,200 base, which was fully reclaimed by London open Tuesday. The rebound stalled at the 84,078 Tuesday high, a lower high. Price has since compressed between the 83,055 pullback low and an intraday lower high at 83,779, with EMA(20) near 83,210 catching each dip and RSI(14) cooling to ~53. No fresh crypto driver; a firm USD and hawkish Fed pricing frame the tape into Wednesday's CPI.
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 83,055 pullback low and EMA(20) opens a deeper retracement toward the 38.2% rebound fib near 82,890
Break of the rising support line from the week low signals the V-recovery is losing structure
Close above the 83,779 lower high, then the 84,078 Tuesday high and the 84,258 week high, breaks the lower-highs sequence
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (core m/m f/c 0.2%) could materially shift this read; Bowman and the Beige Book follow
14:05 UTC
Two-way and volatile, recovery stalling at a lower high · RSI 48 · price 83,167.41
V-recovery from week low, compressing below weekly open.
Sunday's jump out of the 83000 weekend range set the weekly open at 83685. Monday's London-open week high at 84258 then gave way to a NY-hours slide, which ran into a false break of the monday low and a flush to the 80965 week low at Tuesday's Asia open. The V-shaped recovery stalled at a lower high of 84078 in early London, and price has since compressed between the 83055 range low and 83645, just under the weekly open. It sits on flat EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) back near 48, while macro inputs stay thin and dollar-led with DXY firm near 102.35 ahead of US CPI.
Support: 83,055.00, 82,265.00, 80,965.00
Resistance: 83,685.00, 84,078.00, 84,258.00
What it said to watch
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (core MoM f/c 0.2%) could materially shift this read; a core beat with DXY extending above 102.35 is the stated headwind
H1 close back above the weekly open at 83685 and the 84078 lower high would break the lower-highs line and reopen the 84258 week high
Failure to hold the 83055 range low exposes the fib 38.2% near 82890 and then the monday low at 82265
A return below 82265 would put the 80965 week low back in focus and void the V-recovery read
13:05 UTC
Two-way, lower high below week high · RSI 49 · price 83,216.36
V-recovery off 80,965 sweep, capped at lower high.
The weekend's 82,200–83,200 range broke higher in Sunday's 15:00 UTC hour and topped at the 84,258 week high in Monday's Asian session. Selling through Monday's London-NY transition gave way to a late-NY flush to the 80,965 swing low, which swept the 82,264 Monday low before a V-shaped recovery. That rebound stalled at 84,078 during London today, a lower high that sets up a lower-highs line from the week high. Price is now hugging EMA(20) near 83,140 with RSI(14) back to ~49 and the London low at 83,056 holding, against a firm-USD, hawkish-Fed backdrop into Wednesday's CPI.
What it said to watch
Hourly close below the 83,056 London low opens the 38.2% rebound fib near 82,890 and the 82,264 Monday low
A close above the 84,078 lower high and the 84,258 week high breaks the lower-highs line and the rejection read
Failure to hold the 80,965 swing low confirms a lower-low on this window
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC: core m/m vs 0.2% forecast could materially shift this read
12:05 UTC
Two-way; V-recovery stalling below the week high · RSI 51 · price 83,281.28
82300–84260 range; false break to 80965 reclaimed, lower high at 84078.
Against a firm-USD, hawkish-Fed backdrop, Monday's NY-session breakdown from 83300 to the 82300 range floor extended into an Asia-session flush to the 80965 swing low. That move was fully reversed into the London open. The rebound capped at 84078 as the day high, a lower high against Monday's 84258 week high. London has since faded the move to the 83085 session low, just under the 23.6% fib of the V-recovery, where EMA(20) ~83150 and EMA(50) ~83080 have converged, with RSI(14) back to a neutral 51.
Support: 82,300.00, 80,964.84
Resistance: 84,078.41, 84,258.21
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 83085 session low and the EMA(20)/EMA(50) cluster puts the 50% fib near 82520 and the 82300 range floor back in play
Close back above the 83600 weekly open reopens the 84078 day high and the lower-highs line toward the 84258 week high
Loss of 82300 would re-expose the 80965 swing low and negate the false-break read
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read; Fedspeak beforehand and DXY near 102.35 remain the macro drivers
80,965–84,258 range; sweep low reclaimed, then lower high at 84,078.
Sunday's breakout from the 82,200–83,200 weekend range ran to a 84,258 week high early Monday. London and NY then unwound the entire move as the USD firmed on hawkish Fed pricing, and the slide extended into a sweep low at 80,965 in Tuesday's Asian session. That break below the 82,264 monday low was fully reclaimed. The rebound stalled at a 84,078 lower high in the first hour of London, and price has since faded roughly 30% of the 80,965–84,078 recovery back to the flat ema20/EMA50 cluster near 83,100, with RSI(14) near 53.
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 82,264 monday low re-exposes the 80,965 sweep low and the range floor
Clearance of the 84,078 lower high and 84,258 week high breaks the lower-highs sequence
Sustained trade under the ema20 near 83,130 puts the 38.2% retrace of the rebound (~82,890) in view
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC today and US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read via the USD
82,265–84,258 range; false break to 80,965 reclaimed, lower high at 84,078.
BTCUSD held an 82,300–83,100 weekend range before Sunday's push to a 84,258 week high. Monday's London and NY sessions gave that back as DXY printed an 18-month high on risk-off flows, and the slide broke the range floor near 82,265 to an 80,965 swing low into the Asia handover. The false break was reclaimed in a V-shaped Asia-session recovery as the USD eased Tuesday, putting price back above EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) near 56. London open then met rejection at 84,078 (today high), a lower high under the week high, and price is consolidating above the 83,289 pullback low, close to the 23.6% level of the recovery fib.
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 84,258 week high breaks the lower-highs line and the range top
Failure to hold the 83,289 pullback low exposes the 38.2–50% recovery fib zone toward the 82,265 range floor
A move back under the 80,965 swing low would negate the false-break read
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC today and US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read via the USD
Lower high at 84,078 under the 84,258 week high, after a reclaimed false break to 80,965.
BTC held a 82,200–83,200 band through Friday and the weekend. A Sunday-afternoon push then set the 84,258 week high in Monday's London session. The firm-USD, hawkish-Fed tape drove a slide through NY hours to an 80,965 swing low early in the Asia session, a false break below the range floor that was fully reclaimed within hours. The rebound was rejected at the 84,078 Tuesday high on the London open, a lower high under the week high, and price now sits above a flattening ema20 (~83,085) and EMA50 (~83,060) with RSI(14) near 55.
What it said to watch
Hourly close back below the ema20 near 83,085 shifts focus to the 50% fib of the Tuesday rebound at 82,520
Failure to hold the 82,520 50% fib reopens the 80,965 swing low
Close above the 84,078 Tuesday high and the 84,258 week high clears the lower-high line from Monday
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (f/c 0.6% MoM / 3.7% YoY) and Bowman's remarks beforehand could materially shift this read, with DXY near 102.35 the macro driver
Overnight sweep below week lows fully reclaimed; price back in Sunday–Monday range 83200–84260.
Monday's London-into-NY slide from the 84258 week high came as the USD printed fresh highs on hawkish Fedspeak. It extended after NY close into a sweep of the 82200–82300 Friday/Monday lows, with the 80965 swing low printing at the start of Tuesday's Asia session. Asia then reclaimed the move as yields and the dollar eased, retracing ~87% of the Monday–Tuesday decline and lifting price back above the weekly open (83685) and the converged ema20/50 near 83090. RSI(14) has recovered to ~62, and the session high at 83966 is the first cap below the week high.
Support: 83,685.00, 83,090.00, 80,965.00
Resistance: 83,966.00, 84,258.00
What it said to watch
Hourly close back below the weekly open at 83685 puts the reclaim in question; loss of the ema20/50 near 83090 reopens the 82200–82300 area
Close above the 83966 session high, then the 84258 week high, would turn the false break into a fresh weekly high
A return below the 80965 swing low would confirm the sweep as a genuine breakdown
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (f/c 0.6% m/m, 3.7% y/y) and Bowman Wed 09:40 UTC could materially shift this read; DXY back above 102.60 has been a direct headwind
07:05 UTC
Two-way, sharp V recovery off Monday low · RSI 60 · price 83,693.83
Monday lower highs broken; price back in upper part of week range.
The week high at 84258 printed early Monday. The Monday selloff that followed tracked DXY to fresh highs on Hammack's hawkish remarks, and the mon base near 82264 gave way late in NY hours to a 80965 low. That break failed within hours: the Asia session reclaimed the base and the Monday lower-high trendline as Treasury yields slipped and the dollar took profits, retracing beyond the fib 78.6 at 83553 with RSI(14) back near 60. Price holds above EMA(20) and EMA(50), with the tue high at 83844 the first cap beneath the week high.
Support: 83,553.40, 83,000.10, 82,264.40
Resistance: 83,843.67, 84,258.21
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the fib 78.6 at 83553 would leave the Asia bounce as a lower high under 84258
Failure to hold the fib 61.8 near 83000, close to EMA(20), reopens the mon base at 82264
H1 close above the week high at 84258 invalidates Monday's lower-high sequence
Waller at 07:45 UTC, Bowman Wed 09:40 UTC and US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (f/c 0.6% m/m, 3.7% y/y) could materially shift this read via the USD
82,200–84,260 weekly range; Asia flush below prior lows fully reclaimed.
BTC built a base around 82,200–83,100 from Friday through Sunday, then pushed to an 84,258 week high around Monday's London open. A firm USD on hawkish Fedspeak drove the slide through NY hours to the Monday NY low at 82,264, and the Asia session flush to an 80,965 sweep low took out Friday's and Monday's lows before being fully reversed, breaking Monday's lower-highs line. Price has reclaimed EMA(20) and EMA(50) near 83,000, which is also the 61.8% retracement of the week's drop. RSI(14) has rebounded to around 60, and price sits near the 78.6% level just under the 83,844 Asia high.
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 83,844 Asia high exposes the 84,258 week high
Loss of the EMA(20) / 61.8% zone near 82,930–83,000 puts the Monday NY low at 82,264 back in focus
A break back below the 80,965 sweep low invalidates the false-break read
Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC today and US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read via the USD
05:06 UTC
Range, sharp V-recovery off a sweep low · RSI 56 · price 83,350.21
Monday lower highs from 84,258; sweep below Friday lows reclaimed.
Sunday's breakout from the weekend 82,900–83,200 shelf set the week high at 84,258 into Monday's London open. Price then slid through Friday's 82,200 prior lows late Monday under a firm USD and risk-off tone, completing a sweep to 80,965 at the Asia session open. That move was reclaimed within three bars, lifting price back above EMA(20) near 82,830, the 61.8% retracement of the Monday decline and the lower-high line from the week high, with RSI(14) back in the mid-50s; the 83,531 rebound high sits just under the 78.6% level.
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the ema20 near 82,830 puts the sweep reclaim in doubt and refocuses the 82,200 prior lows
Clearance of the 83,531 rebound high and 78.6% retracement opens the path to the 84,258 week high
Loss of the 82,200 prior lows re-exposes the 80,965 sweep low
Fed's Waller 07:45 UTC today and Bowman Wed, then US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC; a hot core print against a firm USD could materially shift this read
Sunday's breakout from the 82,150–83,150 weekend range ran to an 84,109 sunday high. It extended to the 84,258 week high into Monday's London open. From there a firm-USD, hawkish-Fed tape (DXY at YTD highs, no crypto catalyst) drove lower highs through NY and a late flush to the 80,965 swing low. That break below the 82,265 prior floor failed within an hour. The Asia session V-reversal has reclaimed EMA(20) near 82,750 and EMA(50) near 82,960, stalling at the 83,531 asia high near the 78.6% retrace of Monday's drop, with RSI(14) back in the mid-50s from near 30.
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 83,531 asia high puts the 84,109 sunday high and 84,258 week high back in play
Loss of ema20 near 82,750 would leave the rebound as a retracement within Monday's lower-high sequence
Return below the 82,265 prior floor negates the false break and exposes the 80,965 swing low
Fed's Waller 07:45 UTC today and Bowman Wed, ahead of US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
03:05 UTC
Failed upside break, sharp V-rebound off the low · RSI 49 · price 82,783.83
Lower highs from Monday's 84258 peak; Asia rebound stalled at the 61.8% fib.
Sunday's push out of the 82450–83150 weekend range peaked at the 84258 week high early Monday. It reversed from London open as the USD bid built on hawkish Fedspeak and haven flows. NY Monday printed a lower high at 83081 above the 82264 NY lows, then a late-session flush into the Asia session swept Friday's low to 80965. The V-rebound has reclaimed ema20 (~82660) but stalled at the 61.8% fib near 83000, with EMA50 (~82950) also overhead and RSI(14) back at a neutral 49.
Support: 82,660.00, 82,264.00, 80,965.00
Resistance: 83,000.00, 83,685.00, 84,258.00
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 61.8% fib at 83000 and the 83081 lower high reopens the weekly open at 83685, with the 84258 week high above
Loss of ema20 near 82660 and then the 82264 NY lows would leave the 80965 sweep low exposed
Waller at 07:45 UTC today and US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read; DXY extending above 102.60 has been a direct headwind for BTC
02:05 UTC
Downtrend, sharp rebound off the low · RSI 45 · price 82,376.28
Lower highs from 84,258; V-shaped bounce off 80,965 pressing into EMA(20).
The weekend push to an 84,258 week high faded from Monday's London open. Lower highs at 83,550 and 83,081 printed through the NY session as the USD pressed year-to-date highs on oil, geopolitics and Hammack's hawkish remarks. The slide extended to an 80,965 Asia low before a 1,000-point rebound reclaimed the 82,264 range floor. Price now sits just under EMA(20) near 82,614, which lines up with the 50% level of the week drop fib and the lower-high trendline, while RSI(14) has recovered to the mid-40s from near 30 at the low.
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 82,614 ema20 and the lower-high trendline puts the 83,081 lower high back in play
Failure to hold the 82,264 range floor reopens the 81,687 swing low and the 80,965 asia low
Waller Tue 07:45 UTC and US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read via the USD
Reclaiming the 84,258 week high would negate the lower-high sequence
01:05 UTC
Downtrend, oversold after Asia flush · RSI 29 · price 81,449.30
Lower highs and lower lows since Monday's 84,258 high.
Monday's push to the 84,258 week high in early London reversed through the London-NY transition as the USD bid to year-to-date highs and Hammack's hawkish remarks fed the macro drag. The NY bounce stalled at a lower high of 83,081, near the 61.8% retracement, before the Asia session cut through the Friday low at 81,816 to an 80,965 Asia low. Price sits below EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) near 29, oversold.
What it said to watch
An H1 close back above the 81,816 Friday low would turn the break into a false break
Failure to hold the 80,965 Asia low exposes the 80,000 round number
Monday's 82,264 broken low sits on the 38.2% fib; rejection there keeps the lower-high sequence intact
A close above the 83,081 lower high and the lower-high trendline invalidates the downtrend read
Fed's Waller (Tue 07:45 UTC) and US CPI (Wed 12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since Monday's 84,258 peak.
Monday's 84,258 week high printed in Asia hours, and supply took over from the London open, with the NY session extending the slide as a firm USD (DXY ~102.6) and hawkish Fedspeak weighed on risk. A late-NY bounce stalled at an 83,081 lower high, just above the 38.2% retrace of Monday's sell-off, before price broke the 82,264 broken low and tagged a 81,687 session low. Price is now below EMA(20) near 82,650 with RSI(14) near 31, sitting just above Friday's 81,515 low.
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 81,515 friday low extends the lower-low sequence to a new window low
H1 close back above the 82,264 broken low and ema20 near 82,650 would signal the downside break is stalling
Close above the 83,081 lower high, near the 50% retrace of the sell-off, invalidates the lower-highs downtrend read
Fed's Waller (Tue 07:45 UTC) and US CPI (Wed 12:30 UTC, f/c 0.6% m/m, 3.7% y/y) could materially shift this read via the USD