BTC/USD AI Live Scan, 1-hour chart, Wednesday, 14 October 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the BTC/USD 1-hour chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:06 UTC
Downtrend after range break, momentum stalling · RSI 34 · price 81,608.13
82,900–84,250 range lost post-CPI; lower highs since Monday, basing above 81,350.
The 82,900–84,250 range held from Sunday until Wednesday's NY session. Equal highs at 84,078 on Tuesday and Wednesday, under Monday's 84,258, formed a double top along a line of lower highs. The hot core CPI print (0.3% vs 0.2%) then broke the range floor: the CPI bar spiked to 83,817 before reversing to the 81,350 post-cpi low. Price is now compressing 81,350–82,065 below the EMA(20) near 82,240, with RSI(14) near 34 and no divergence yet; Tuesday's Asia flush to the 80,965 week low was fully reversed within hours.
What it said to watch
Hourly close back above the 82,900 range floor, near the 61.8% of the CPI leg fib (~83,040), undermines the breakdown read
Failure to hold the 81,350 post-cpi low exposes Tuesday's 80,965 week low
EMA20 near 82,240, just under the 38.2% CPI leg fib (~82,390), is the first cap on any rebound
Thu 12:30Z PPI / Retail Sales / claims cluster could materially shift this read
22:05 UTC
Downtrend after range breakdown, momentum stalling · RSI 33 · price 81,686.04
Double top at 84,078 under the 84,258 week high; post-CPI lower highs, basing 81,450–81,900.
BTC spent Monday through Wednesday's London session ranging 82,910–84,080. 84,078 capped two London-hour rallies, forming a double top below the 84,258 week high. The hot US CPI print at 12:30 UTC Wednesday broke the range floor and drove a NY-session slide to the 81,458 cpi low. Price has since compressed in a tight 81,450–81,900 band beneath EMA(20) near 82,330, with RSI(14) holding in the low 30s rather than pressing oversold.
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 82,910 range floor would negate the breakdown and return price to the prior range
Failure to hold the 81,458 cpi low exposes Tuesday's Asia-session week low at 80,965
Recovery above ema20 (~82,330), which sits near the 38.2% retrace of the CPI drop fib, would break the post-CPI lower highs
US PPI, retail sales and claims at 12:30 UTC Thursday (~15h) could materially shift this read via USD and yields
21:09 UTC
Downtrend after range break, momentum stalling · RSI 31 · price 81,718.01
Range low lost on CPI, lower highs, tight base above week low.
Price failed a second time at the 84,078 double top late Tuesday. The 82,900–84,250 range then broke lower on Wednesday's hotter US core CPI: the 12:00 UTC bar spiked to 83,817 and reversed, and selling extended through NY hours to a 81,458 cpi low. Post-CPI trade is a tight 81,460–81,910 consolidation below both EMAs, with EMA(20) near 82,400 overlapping the 38.2% fib of the CPI drop, RSI(14) near 31 and a series of lower highs capping each bounce.
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 82,400 ema20 and the 38.2% fib would break the post-CPI lower highs sequence
A move back inside the range low at 82,910 would neutralise the range break read
Failure to hold the 81,458 cpi low exposes Tuesday's 80,965 week low, where a break extends the lower-low sequence
Thu 12:30 UTC US PPI and Retail Sales (~16h) could materially shift this read, with DXY pressing 103.00 a headwind if it clears
20:05 UTC
Downtrend after a range break, selling pressure easing · RSI 36 · price 81,806.91
Weekly range lost on CPI; lower high at 84078, holding above Monday low.
BTC spent Sunday through Wednesday morning rotating in an 82910–84250 band. Monday's late flush to 80965 was fully reclaimed, but Tuesday and Wednesday stalled at the same 84078 high, leaving a double top. The hot US CPI print around the NY open broke the range floor, and price slid to a 81458 session low during NY hours as the dollar firmed. RSI(14) is near 36 after a dip below 30, and price sits under EMA(20) near 82470, which lines up with the 38.2% retracement of the CPI leg.
Support: 81,458.00, 80,965.00
Resistance: 82,470.00, 82,910.00, 84,078.00
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 81458 session low exposes the 80965 Monday low and the 81000 round number
H1 close back above the ema20 / 38.2% zone near 82470 eases the breakdown read
Recovery above the 82910 range floor (61.8% near 83077) would turn the break into a false break back into the range
Thursday 12:30 UTC PPI, Retail Sales and claims (~16.5h) could materially shift this read via the USD/yield reaction
19:05 UTC
Turned down after CPI, oversold · RSI 28 · price 81,664.07
82,910–84,078 range broken lower; double top completed, lower highs since Monday.
Wednesday's hot core CPI (0.3% vs 0.2%) at 12:30 UTC knocked BTC out of the 82,910–84,078 range it had held since Tuesday. That range had already failed twice at the 84,078 double top during the London open on both days. The NY session extended the CPI drop to a CPI low of 81,458 before stalling, leaving price below EMA(20) near 82,600 with RSI(14) oversold near 28, while lower highs from Monday's 84,258 week high cap the structure.
What it said to watch
Hourly close below the 81,458 cpi low exposes Tuesday's 80,965 week low
Recovery back above the 82,910 range floor would turn the CPI break into a false break
A new low with RSI(14) holding above today's reading would set up bullish divergence
Thu 12:30 UTC PPI, Retail Sales and Jobless Claims could materially shift this read
Rejection at EMA(20) near 82,600 would keep the post-CPI lower-high sequence intact
18:06 UTC
Downtrend after range break, momentum oversold · RSI 28 · price 81,498.25
Double top at 84,078 under lower highs; Tue–Wed range floor broken post-CPI.
Tuesday's Asia-session rally from the 80,965 week low stalled at 84,078. That level capped again in Wednesday's London session, completing a double top beneath a lower-highs line from Monday's 84,258 peak. The hotter-than-forecast US core CPI (0.3% vs 0.2%) at 12:30 UTC broke the 82,910 range floor, and NY-session selling extended the drop to the 81,458 session low, through the 78.6% level of the Tue rally fib. RSI(14) near 28 is oversold, with price roughly 1,100 below the ema20 at ~82,610.
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 81,458 session low exposes the 80,965 week low and a full retracement of Tuesday's rally
Recovery above the ema20 (~82,610) and back inside the 82,910 range floor would neutralise the range-break read
A higher RSI(14) low on any retest of the 80,965 week low would mark bullish divergence
Beige Book at 18:00 UTC and Thursday's 12:30 UTC PPI/retail sales could materially shift this read
83055–84078 range broken lower; lower highs from 84258.
The Tuesday–Wednesday 83055–84078 range broke lower after the hot US core CPI print at 12:30 UTC. The NY session dropped about 2,300 from 83817 to an 81539 cpi low as the firmer USD weighed. Earlier, Wednesday's London-hours rejection at 84078 matched Tuesday's high, forming a double top beneath Monday's 84258 peak, and a lower-highs trendline now caps the week. Price sits below EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) near 35, and the bounce so far stalls short of the 82410 fib 38.2 of the CPI drop.
Support: 81,539.20, 80,964.84
Resistance: 84,078.41
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 81539 cpi low exposes Tuesday's Asia-session week low at 80965
Recovery through the 82410 fib 38.2 and back above the 83055 range floor would undercut the breakdown read
Beige Book at 18:00 UTC and Thursday's 12:30 UTC PPI / retail sales could materially shift this read
H1 close above the lower-highs trendline near 84078 (double top) would negate the lower-high sequence
16:05 UTC
Downtrend after post-CPI range break, oversold · RSI 27 · price 81,661.07
Lower highs from Monday's 84,258; Tue–Wed 82,910–84,078 range broken lower.
Monday's 84,258 week high was followed by matching lower highs at 84,078 on Tuesday and Wednesday, forming a double top over an 82,910–84,078 range. The hotter US core CPI at 12:30 UTC broke the range floor and EMA(20) in the first hour of NY. Four straight bearish bars printed an 81,551 CPI low, and RSI(14) sits near 27, oversold. Tuesday's 80,965 week low, set in the Asia session, is the next reference below.
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 82,910 range floor and EMA(20) near 82,825 would undercut the breakdown read; that zone also holds the CPI drop's 50% retracement
Failure to hold the 81,551 CPI low exposes Tuesday's 80,965 week low
Reclaiming the weekly open at 83,685 would bring the lower-high trendline from 84,258 back into play
Beige Book at 18:00 UTC and Thursday's 12:30 UTC PPI and retail sales could materially shift this read
Double top at 84,078 resolved lower; Tue–Wed range floor broken.
BTC capped twice at the 84,078 lower high, on Tuesday and Wednesday mornings, below Monday's 84,258 week high. The hotter-than-forecast US core CPI at 12:30 UTC broke the Tue–Wed range floor near 82,910 and the 82,264 monday low, with the selloff reaching a cpi low of 81,641 into NY hours. Price now sits below EMA(20) (~82,970) and EMA(50), with RSI(14) near 27 in oversold territory and Tuesday's 80,965 week low the next structural floor.
What it said to watch
Hourly close back above the 82,264 monday low would show the CPI break losing traction
Recovery through the range floor at 82,910, near the 50% fib of the CPI leg (~82,860), would negate the double top follow-through
Failure to hold the 81,641 cpi low exposes the 80,965 week low
Reaction to Bowman's remarks (14:55 UTC), the Beige Book at 18:00 UTC and Thursday's 12:30 UTC PPI and retail sales could materially shift this read
14:05 UTC
Range broken lower on CPI, momentum turning down · RSI 33 · price 82,332.33
Lower highs from Monday's 84,258 peak; 83,050–83,880 range floor lost.
The hotter US core CPI print at the start of today's NY session broke the 83,050–83,880 range that had held since Tuesday's rebound. The CPI bar first spiked to 83,817 and then reversed to a cpi low at 82,262, and price now sits below EMA(20) near 83,130 with RSI(14) near 33. Two pushes at 84,078 in Tuesday's and today's London sessions failed and left a double high below Monday's 84,258 peak, extending the lower highs. The pullback is now sitting between the 50% and 61.8% fib levels of Tuesday's Asia-session rally off the 80,965 week low.
What it said to watch
An H1 close back above the 83,050 range floor would mark the CPI breakdown as a false break
Failure to hold the 61.8% fib at 82,154 exposes the 80,965 week low
Recovery through the cpi spike high at 83,817 would reopen the double high at 84,078
Bowman at 14:55 UTC and the Beige Book at 18:00 UTC could extend or unwind the post-CPI move
Thursday's 12:30 UTC PPI and retail sales could materially shift this read
13:06 UTC
Range breaking lower after hot CPI · RSI 41 · price 82,709.91
Lower highs at 84260/84080; 82910 range floor lost.
Monday's slide from the 84258 week high ran through the NY session. Asia hours early Tuesday then flushed to the 80965 week low, and price recovered all of it by London. That rally stalled at 84078, and the London-open push on Wednesday was rejected at the same level, forming a double top under a line of lower highs. The hot US core CPI print (0.3% m/m vs 0.2%) sent price through the 82910 range floor to the 82611 cpi low, below the ema20 and close to the 50% retrace of the Tuesday rally fib.
Support: 82,611.00, 82,264.00, 80,965.00
Resistance: 82,910.00, 83,300.00, 84,078.00
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 82910 range floor negates the range break and puts the ema20 near 83300 back in play
Failure to hold the 82611 cpi low and the 50% retrace near 82520 exposes the 82264 monday low
A break below 82264 leaves the 80965 week low as the next swing reference
Fed's Bowman at 14:55 UTC and the Beige Book at 18:00 UTC could extend or reverse the post-CPI move
A reclaim of the 84078 double top and the lower highs line would void the topping read
Lower highs against flat lows inside an 82910–84080 range.
Monday's London-into-NY sell-off from the 84258 week high bottomed at 80965 at Tuesday's Asia open. The V-shaped rebound has since compressed into an 82910–84080 range, with price pinned near ema20 (~83380), RSI(14) flat near 51 and Wednesday's high at 83879 as the intermediate cap. Supply capped London-hours pushes at 84078 on both Tuesday and Wednesday, an unconfirmed double top under a run of lower highs, while dips into the range floor near the 38.2% rebound fib were absorbed as the firm dollar kept a lid on price into today's US CPI.
Support: 83,380.00, 82,910.00, 82,264.00
Resistance: 83,879.00, 84,078.00, 84,258.00
What it said to watch
US CPI at 12:30 UTC (core m/m f/c 0.2%) could materially shift this read
H1 close above the 84078 double top negates the twin-rejection read and exposes the 84258 week high
H1 close below the 82910 range floor, near the 38.2% rebound fib, confirms the double top and opens the monday low near 82264
Sustained H1 closes below ema20 (~83380) would shift focus back to the range floor
11:05 UTC
Recovered from Tuesday flush, now flat and compressing · RSI 48 · price 83,352.21
Range 82910–84080 after V-shaped recovery; equal highs above, higher lows below.
Monday's selloff from the 84258 week high began in NY hours and carried through the Asia session to a sweep of the 80965 week low. A V-shaped recovery then lifted price back above the weekly open by Tuesday's London open. Since then price has held a 82910–84080 range: supply capped the 84078 equal highs at London open on both Tuesday and Wednesday, while higher lows at the range floor sit on the 38.2% fib of the recovery. Price is pinned at EMA(20), RSI(14) is flat near 48 and it trades below the 83685 weekly open, with a firm USD keeping the range compressed into today's US CPI.
Support: 82,910.00, 82,264.00, 80,965.00
Resistance: 83,685.00, 84,078.00, 84,258.00
What it said to watch
US CPI at 12:30 UTC (~1.5h): core m/m vs the 0.2% forecast could break the range in either direction
H1 close above the 84078 equal highs and the 84258 week high invalidates the range read
Failure to hold the 82910 range floor (38.2% fib) exposes the 50% retracement near 82520 and the 82264 monday low
Recovery of the 83685 weekly open would put price back in the upper half of the range
Fed's Bowman at 14:55 UTC and the Beige Book at 18:00 UTC could extend the post-CPI move
10:05 UTC
Range after V-recovery, momentum fading · RSI 46 · price 83,178.40
82,910–84,078 range below week high, equal highs capping.
BTC slid from Monday's 84,258 week high and flushed to an 80,965 swing low at Tuesday's Asia open, then staged a V-shaped recovery that has since rotated inside an 82,910–84,078 range. A second London-open rejection at 84,078 today formed a double top, leaving price below EMA(20), sitting on EMA(50), with RSI(14) near 46. The firm USD and revived Fed hike risk ahead of CPI have kept the rebound capped beneath the week high.
What it said to watch
US CPI at 12:30 UTC today (core m/m f/c 0.2%) could materially shift this read
H1 close below the 82,910 range floor (38.2% fib) completes the double top and exposes the 82,264 monday low
H1 close above 84,078 negates the double top and puts the 84,258 week high back in play
Failure to hold the 82,264 monday low reopens the 80,965 swing low and the recovery lows trendline
Range 82,910–84,078 with higher lows pressing into a twice-rejected top.
Tuesday's Asia-session flush to the 80,965 week low was fully reversed by London open. Since then price has been boxed between the 82,910 Tuesday low, which held at the 38.2% fib of that rebound, and 84,078. Supply capped 84,078 again at this morning's London open, a potential double top, while a firm dollar into US CPI keeps follow-through thin. Price is hugging a flat EMA(20) near 83,375 with RSI(14) pinned around 50, as rising lows since Tuesday's NY session squeeze the range.
What it said to watch
Hourly close above the 84,078 double top exposes Monday's 84,258 week high
Break of the rising lows near 83,290 shifts focus back to the 82,910 Tuesday low and 38.2% fib
Loss of 82,910 completes the double top and reopens the 80,965 week low
US CPI at 12:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% m/m) could materially shift this read; Fed's Bowman speaks at 09:40 and 14:55 UTC
08:06 UTC
V-recovery stalling, range compressing · RSI 57 · price 83,578.96
Lower highs vs higher lows since Tuesday's rebound high.
Monday's NY-session selloff extended into a flush to 80,965 at Tuesday's Asia open, briefly undercutting Monday's 82,264 lows before a sharp V-recovery to the 84,078 tue high by London open. Since then price has compressed between a lower high at 83,879 and higher lows at 82,910 (swing low, near the 38.2% retracement of the rebound) and 83,290, with the last close holding above EMA(20) near 83,400. A softer dollar off Monday's high has steadied the tape, but the coil is tightening directly into today's US CPI.
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 83,879 lower high breaks the compression and puts the 84,078 tue high and 84,258 week high back in play
Failure to hold the 83,290 higher low and EMA(20) shifts focus to the 82,910 swing low and the 38.2% retracement
Loss of 82,910 would undo most of Tuesday's V-recovery and reopen the 81,000 area
US CPI at 12:30 UTC, core m/m vs the 0.2% forecast, could materially shift this read
Fed's Bowman at 09:40 and 14:55 UTC adds event risk around the range edges
Lower highs against higher lows; narrowing range below the week high.
Monday's London-session slide from the 84258 week high broke the 82264 monday low and reached 80965 early Tuesday, then retraced the entire drop to the 84078 tue high within eight hours. That makes the break a false one. Since then, lower highs at 84078 and 83878 against higher lows at 82910 and 83049 have squeezed price into a narrowing consolidation. The 82910 low held at the fib 38.2 of the 80965–84078 rebound. Price sits on EMA(20) just below the weekly open near 83685, with RSI(14) around 54, as a firm USD and pre-CPI caution keep ranges contained.
Support: 83,048.54, 82,909.69, 82,264.40
Resistance: 84,078.41, 84,258.21
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 83878 lower high breaks the compression and brings the 84078 tue high and 84258 week high back into view
Failure to hold the 83049 higher low and the 82910 fib 38.2 would re-expose the 82264 monday low
US CPI at 12:30 UTC today (core f/c 0.2% m/m) could materially shift this read; a hot core would add to the USD/yields headwind
Fed's Bowman at 09:40 UTC could jolt the range ahead of the print
06:06 UTC
Range after V-shaped recovery, momentum neutral · RSI 52 · price 83,416.14
Compression: lower highs from 84258, higher lows from 80965.
Monday's week high at 84258 near London open gave way to a NY-session sell-off to 80965. A V-shaped rebound then stalled at 84078 into Tuesday's London open. Since then H1 has compressed between lower highs (84078, today's 83879 Asian high) and higher lows (82910, 83049), with price back below the 83685 weekly open and sitting on EMA(20) near 83390 as RSI(14) idles around 52. The firm USD and pre-CPI caution in the digest fit the fading rallies, and the 82910 swing low lines up with the fib 38.2 of the rebound.
Support: 83,390.00, 83,049.00, 82,910.00
Resistance: 83,685.00, 83,879.00, 84,258.00
What it said to watch
US CPI at 12:30 UTC (~6h): core vs the 0.2% m/m forecast could resolve the compression either way
H1 close back above the 83685 weekly open and 83879 Asian high breaks the lower-highs line
Failure to hold the 83049 higher low exposes the fib 38.2 at 82910 and breaks the higher-lows line
Fed's Bowman at 09:40 UTC could move yields and the dollar before CPI
05:07 UTC
V-shaped recovery, now compressing · RSI 56 · price 83,640.89
Lower highs vs higher lows after Tuesday's false break.
Monday's 84258 week high gave way in London, and NY-session selling with a firm dollar carried price to 80965 in early Tuesday Asia. That move was a false break below the 82264 Monday low, reclaimed within three bars. Since then price has compressed between a lower high sequence (84078, 83879) and a higher low sequence (82910, 83049). The Tuesday low held near the 38.2% fib of the rebound. Price trades above EMA(20) near 83390 and just under the 83685 weekly open, with RSI(14) in the mid-50s as the dollar's pre-CPI pullback lends support.
Support: 83,390.00, 83,048.54, 82,909.69
Resistance: 83,684.84, 83,878.63, 84,258.21
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 83879 lower high breaks the compression and opens 84078 and the 84258 week high
Acceptance back above the 83685 weekly open would mark a shift from recovery to this-week gains
Loss of the 83049 higher low and the 82910 tuesday low breaks the higher-low sequence and the 38.2% fib
US CPI at 12:30 UTC (core vs 0.2% m/m f/c) and Bowman at 09:40 UTC could materially shift this read
04:06 UTC
Two-way, recovering inside a contracting range · RSI 56 · price 83,598.93
Lower highs from 84,258 against higher lows since Tuesday's 80,965 sweep.
Monday's slide from the 84,258 week high started around the London-NY transition. It swept Monday's lows to print 80,965 in Tuesday's Asia session, then recovered in a V that stalled at 84,078 into London open. Since then price has compressed between lower highs at 84,258, 84,078 and 83,878 and a rising line of higher lows off Tuesday's 82,910 low, which held near the 38.2% of the rebound; price now sits just under the weekly open at 83,685, with EMA20 near 83,330 catching pullbacks and RSI(14) at 55. A firm USD ahead of US CPI has kept rallies contained, and the digest flags no BTC-specific driver.
What it said to watch
US CPI at 12:30 UTC (core m/m f/c 0.2%) could materially shift this read; Fed's Bowman at 09:40 UTC comes first
H1 close above the 83,878 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence and brings 84,078 and the 84,258 week high into view
Holding above the weekly open at 83,685 would put price back above the week's starting level
Failure to hold the 83,050 higher low and the rising higher-lows line reopens Tuesday's 82,910 low near the 38.2% rebound fib
Lower highs from 84078 vs higher lows from 82910 inside the 80965–84258 week range.
Monday's London-session week high at 84258 gave way to a slide through NY. The drop spiked to 80965 at Tuesday's Asia open, a false break below the 82264–82302 lows that was fully reclaimed by London open. Since then H1 has compressed: lower highs from 84078 against higher lows from the 82910 Tuesday low, which sits on the 38.2% retracement of the recovery leg. Price is back above EMA(20) near 83330 and testing the 83620 Asia high with RSI(14) around 57, with no BTC-specific catalyst and a firm USD into CPI.
Support: 83,330.00, 83,050.00, 82,910.00
Resistance: 83,620.00, 83,780.00, 84,258.00
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 83780 lower high breaks the compression and puts the 84258 week high back in play
Failure to hold the 83050 higher low, then the 82910 Tuesday low, invalidates the higher-lows read
Repeated rejection at the 83620 Asia high keeps the lower-highs line intact
US CPI at 12:30 UTC (~9h): a core print away from the 0.2% m/m forecast could materially shift this read; Bowman speaks at 09:40 UTC
Compression between 82,910 and 83,780 below a lower high at 84,078.
Sunday's breakout from the weekend 82,500–83,200 range ran to an 84,258 week high early Monday. A NY-session sell-off then swept below Monday's 82,260 lows to an 80,965 week low, and that drop was reclaimed within hours, with the rebound capped at an 84,078 lower high in Tuesday's London session. Since Tuesday's NY open, price has compressed inside an 82,910 range low to 83,780 range high band, with lows holding near the 38.2% fib of the recovery. Price is flat around the ema20 near 83,240 and RSI(14) sits at ~50, while a firm dollar keeps BTC contained ahead of US CPI.
What it said to watch
US CPI at 12:30 UTC (~10h): a core print away from the 0.2% m/m forecast could break the range in either direction
An hourly close below the 82,910 range low breaks the 38.2% fib hold and exposes the 80,965 week low
A close above the 83,780 range high and the lower highs line puts the 84,078 lower high and 84,258 week high back in play
Repeated hourly closes either side of the ema20 near 83,240 keep the read as range rather than trend
01:06 UTC
Range after V-shaped recovery, momentum neutral · RSI 51 · price 83,310.25
Contracting range: lower highs from 84,078 against higher lows from 82,910.
Monday's NY session selloff from the 84,258 week high cut through the Monday low near 82,264 and reached 80,965 in Tuesday's Asian session. Price then reclaimed the level in a V-shaped move into London, a false break that stalled at the 84,078 rebound high. Since then price has compressed between a lower high at 83,613 and a higher low at 83,050, with Tuesday's NY low at 82,910 holding on the 38.2% rebound fib, EMA(20) and EMA(50) flattening around 83,200–83,250, RSI(14) near 51, and a firm dollar into US CPI keeping the tape two-way with no BTC-specific driver.
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 83,613 lower high breaks the compression and puts the 84,078 rebound high back in view
Failure to hold the 83,050 higher low and the 82,910 ny low exposes the Monday low near 82,264
A close above the 84,258 week high would end the lower-high sequence from the rebound
US CPI at 12:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% m/m) could materially shift this read; Fed's Bowman at 09:40 UTC comes first
Contracting range under lower-high trendline, 82,910–83,780.
Monday's London-to-NY sell-off from the 84,258 week high extended to 80,965 at Tuesday's open. A V-shaped recovery through Asia and London then stalled at 84,078, a lower high, as supply capped the move below the prior peak. Since then price has compressed below EMA(20) between a falling line of lower highs (84,078 to 83,471) and rising lows off the 82,910 tue low, which sits on the 38.2% fib of the recovery, with RSI(14) flat in the mid-40s as a firm USD and hike-risk pricing keep rebounds under the 83,685 weekly open into US CPI.
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 82,910 tue low breaks the 38.2% recovery fib and the higher lows, exposing the 82,264 monday low
Loss of the 82,264 monday low puts the 80,965 week low back in focus
H1 close above the lower-high trendline and 83,471 opens the 83,685 weekly open, then the 84,258 week high
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% m/m) and Fed's Bowman at 09:40/14:55 UTC could materially shift this read