21:08 UTC
Uptrend, pulling back from the 87k ceiling · RSI 44 · price 82,410.24
HH/HL chain since the mid-August breakout; the 82.5k–87.3k range has broken lower and price is testing the higher-low zone.
BTCUSD has been in an uptrend since the Aug 19 breakout from the 62k–66k base. It printed a higher low at the 74.9k sept low (Sep 16) and still trades above a rising EMA(50) near 79.9k. Repeated tests of the 87k cycle high failed between Sep 21 and Oct 5. The Oct 7–8 drop then broke the 82.5k range floor, and price has spent the past week churning beneath it and below EMA(20). Today's hot US PPI drove a sweep of the Oct 8 low to a 79,737 oct low, near the 61.8% retracement of the September leg, before the close recovered to 82,410.
What it said to watch
- A daily close back above the 82.5k range floor and the 84.3k week high would reopen the 87k cycle high
- A daily close below the 79.7k oct low and EMA(50) would break the higher-lows sequence and expose the 74.9k sept low
- Fed Chair Warsh speaks Fri 03:30 UTC; a hike signal would add to the hawkish-PPI pressure, while a patient tone could lift price back into the range
- An RSI slide under 40 alongside a lower close would confirm momentum rolling over within the uptrend