21:09 UTC
Uptrend stalling, lower highs since late Sept · RSI 42 · price 81,353.41
Triple top near 87k, ~82.6k neckline broken; price testing EMA(50).
The mid-August breakout from the 62–65k base built a HH/HL chain to the 87,273 cycle high on Sep 21. Three failed tests near 87k into early October then turned the tape into a lower-high sequence, and the Oct 6 drop broke the ~82.6k neckline; the Oct 9–12 retest of that zone capped at the 84,258 lower high. Price now sits just above a flattening EMA(50) near 80,450, between the 38.2% and 50% levels of the Sept leg fib measured off the 74,903 sept low. Thursday's hot PPI and retail sales beats wicked the bar to a 79,737 swing low before demand pulled it back above 82k.
What it said to watch
- Daily close below the 79,737 swing low confirms a lower low and puts the 61.8% retracement near 79,630 in play
- Daily close above the 84,258 lower high breaks the falling trendline and negates the triple top read
- Sustained closes below the EMA(50) near 80,450 flip the swing-trend filter; the 74,903 sept low is the next major pivot below
- Jobless claims Thu Oct 22 and S&P PMIs Fri Oct 23 could shift the hawkish-Fed headwind; weekend IMF headlines carry gap risk