BTC/USD AI Live Scan, 15-minute chart, Monday, 19 October 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the BTC/USD 15-minute chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:47 UTC
Post-selloff range, lower highs off day high · RSI 54 · price 81,970.73
Tight range 81,870–82,185 with rising lows above the 81,643 day low.
BTC printed its 83,057 day high early in the London session, then broke down from the 82,679 pre-NY high in the first hour of NY to an 81,643 day low as the hawkish-Fed, firm-USD backdrop weighed. After the NY close, price has compressed into an 81,870–82,185 range on rising lows, hovering just above EMA20 near the 23.6% fib, with the range high capping at the 38.2% fib.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 82,185 range high (38.2% fib) opens the 82,465 bounce high, then the 82,679 pre-NY high
Break of the rising lows line and the 81,870 range low exposes the 81,643 day low
Thin Asia session open, then Tue 12:30 UTC US housing starts/permits as the next USD data risk
23:32 UTC
Intraday downtrend, flattening into a range · RSI 48 · price 81,929.77
Lower highs since the NY open, compressing in 81,690–82,185.
The NY open selloff took BTC from 82,440 to an 81,643 NY low as the hawkish-Fed backdrop from last week's hot PPI kept pressure on. Since then price has compressed between the 81,692 range low and the 82,185 range high, which stalled at the 50% fib. Early Asia trade is flat near 81,930 with RSI(14) neutral around 48.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 82,185 range high breaks the compression and brings the 82,465 lower high into view
Failure to hold the 81,692 range low and then the 81,643 NY low extends the lower-low sequence
Tue 12:30 UTC US housing starts and permits could shift USD tone and break the range
23:19 UTC
Downtrend, compressing above the NY low · RSI 46 · price 81,897.81
Lower highs from 83,000 into a flat base near 81,650–81,700.
London rejected 83,000 twice in a double top, then NY broke the Asian low at 81,922 and set a session low at 81,643, with the hawkish-Fed USD backdrop still weighing. Since then a base near 81,692 has held, while bounces stalled at the 82,465 lower high and the fib 38.2 at 82,185. Early in the new Asia session, price sits just under the Asian low with RSI(14) neutral at 46.
What it said to watch
M15 close above 82,185 (fib 38.2) and the falling trendline breaks the lower-high chain
Acceptance back above the asian low at 81,922 turns it from resistance into a pivot
A reclaim of the 82,465 lower high would undo the NY breakdown
Failure at the 81,692 base and the 81,643 session low extends the downtrend
No US data in the next 8h; Tue 12:30 UTC housing starts and permits are the next macro input
Compression 81640–82190 after NY drop from London high.
London printed the session high at 83057 before a slide into the NY low at 81643. Price has since compressed between 81640 and 82190 on rising lows, and the late-session bounce was rejected at 82185, the fib 38.2 retracement of that drop. RSI(14) is neutral near 49 and early Asia is quiet, with no fresh data and BTC trading off last week's hawkish-Fed backdrop.
Support: 81,915.00, 81,643.00
Resistance: 82,185.00, 82,465.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above 82185 (fib 38.2) opens the 82465 lower high
Failure to hold the 81915 higher low puts the 81643 NY low back in play
A break of the rising lows trendline ends the compression read
Tue 12:30 UTC US housing starts/permits are the next macro input for USD
22:47 UTC
Intraday downtrend, basing after NY close · RSI 52 · price 81,975.72
Lower highs from 83,057; 81,640–82,190 range with higher lows.
A London open spike to 83,057 failed, and the slide ran through NY to an 81,643 session low as the hawkish-Fed USD backdrop weighed. After NY close, price is basing with higher lows at 81,692 and 81,709. The late high at 82,185 met rejection at the 38.2% retrace of the London-NY drop.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 82,185 late high clears the 38.2% retrace and opens the 82,465 NY bounce high, then the 82,679 pre-NY high
Failure to hold the 81,709 higher low breaks the basing structure and exposes the 81,643 session low
Tue 12:30 UTC US housing starts/permits is the next scheduled USD risk; hawkish-Fed pricing keeps rebounds capped unless data softens
22:32 UTC
Intraday downtrend, stabilising off the lows · RSI 56 · price 82,021.67
Lower highs from the London high; higher lows forming since the NY low.
The London open spike to 83057 rolled over. NY-open selling, with US 10y yields up near 5.13%, printed the 81643 NY low and capped the bounce high at 82465. Higher lows at 81692 and 81709 followed, but the late push stalled at 82185, the 38.2% retracement of the London high to NY low drop, and price is back near 82020 at the start of Asia.
Support: 81,709.02, 81,643.09
Resistance: 82,185.49, 82,465.18, 82,678.95
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 82185 late high breaks the post-NY cap and exposes the 82465 bounce high, then the 82679 pre-NY high
Loss of the 81915 late base, then the 81709 higher low, reopens the 81643 NY low
Tue 12:30 UTC US housing starts/permits is the next scheduled USD catalyst; a renewed yield push would weigh on this structure
22:19 UTC
Intraday downtrend from London high, compressing late · RSI 58 · price 82,084.60
Lower highs since London open; post-NY range 81,690–82,120 with higher lows.
BTC has printed lower highs since the 83,057 London-open high and set the NY low at 81,643. Late NY and after-hours trade compressed into an 81,690 range floor to 82,120 range top band, with higher lows now pressing the top and RSI(14) near 58. The macro backdrop is unchanged, with last week's hot PPI keeping Fed-hike pricing in place and no fresh drivers today.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 82,120 range top breaks the compression and exposes the 82,465 NY swing hi, then the 82,680 pre-NY high near the 38.2–50% fib of the London-NY drop
Loss of the 81,915 higher low and the higher-lows trendline puts the 81,690 range floor back in play
Break of the 81,643 NY low extends the lower-low sequence from London
No US data until Tue 12:30 UTC housing starts/permits; thin Asia session liquidity ahead
22:05 UTC
Intraday downtrend stalling into a flat range · RSI 56 · price 81,998.70
Lower highs from 83,057; post-NY range 81,643–82,120.
The Asia-session rally topped at 83,057 at London open and printed lower highs from there, with the NY open drop finding a floor at the 81,643 NY low. Since then BTC has been boxed between a range base near 81,700 and a range top at 82,120. Price has pushed back above the lower-high line but is stalled near the 23.6% fib, below EMA50, with RSI(14) neutral and the hawkish Fed backdrop from last week's PPI beats still the macro tone.
What it said to watch
Close above the 82,120 range top opens the 38.2% fib at 82,183, then the 82,465 lower high
Loss of the 81,700 range base and the 81,643 NY low resumes the lower-low sequence
Holding back above the lower-high line keeps the downtrend read stalled rather than active
Thin Asia session ahead, with no US data until Tue 12:30 UTC housing starts/permits
Lower highs from 83,057; higher lows at 81,690–81,710 since NY low.
BTC sold off from the 83,057 London-open high through NY hours to an 81,643 session low, with the hawkish-Fed backdrop from last week's hot PPI still the only macro driver. Since then it has held an 81,690–82,120 consolidation with higher lows near the range low. The late-NY push to the 82,120 range top poked through the lower-highs trendline but faded back toward 81,950, and RSI(14) sits neutral at 51.
What it said to watch
Close above the 82,120 range top opens the 82,465 lower high, with the 50% fib of the NY selloff near 82,160 in between
Failure to hold the 81,700 range low exposes the 81,643 session low, and a break below it extends the lower-low sequence
Slip back below the lower-highs trendline (~81,870) turns the late-NY break into a false break
No US data in the next 8h; Asia session flow sets the next test of the range
21:32 UTC
Downtrend from London-open high, now basing · RSI 51 · price 81,985.71
Lower highs since 83,057; post-NY range 81,700–82,120.
BTC has printed lower highs since the 83,057 London-open high. The NY open broke the 82,020 pullback low and set a 81,643 NY low, with the hawkish-USD backdrop from last week's hot PPI still weighing. Since late NY, price has compressed between the 81,700 range floor and the 82,120 range top under the lower-highs line, with RSI(14) flat near 51.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 82,120 range top breaks the lower-highs line and brings the 38.2% retrace of the London-NY drop (~82,180) into play
Reclaiming the 82,465 NY high would end the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 81,700 range floor re-exposes the 81,643 NY low
No US data in the next 8h. Tue 12:30 UTC housing starts/permits is the next scheduled macro risk
21:17 UTC
Intraday downtrend, basing late NY · RSI 59 · price 82,080.61
Lower highs from 83057, after-hours range 81643–82045 with rising lows, now poking above range top.
The Asia rally faded at the London-open spike to 83057. Lower highs followed, and NY broke the Asian low to a 81643 NY low against a still-hawkish US rates backdrop. Late-session rising lows (81643, 81709, higher low 81858) lifted price just above the 82045 range top, where it sits under the fib 38.2 of the London-NY drop at 82183. The fib 50 at 82350 and the 82465 swing high sit above that.
Support: 81,643.09
Resistance: 82,183.40, 82,350.30, 82,465.18
What it said to watch
Close back below the 82045 range top turns the poke into a false break inside the range
Rejection at fib 38.2 (82183) keeps the lower-high sequence intact; acceptance above opens fib 50 / 82465 swing high
Loss of the 81858 higher low and the rising lows line puts the 81643 NY low back in play
Thin early-Asia liquidity with no US data for 8h; Tue 12:30 UTC housing data is the next macro input
21:07 UTC
Downtrend from London high, compressing · RSI 52 · price 81,974.72
Lower highs onto a flat 81,650–81,710 floor.
The London-open spike to 83,058 was rejected. A lower-high chain then carried price to the 81,643 ny low after the NY open, against a hawkish-Fed backdrop with no BTC-specific news. Since the NY close the market has compressed between the range floor near 81,700, defended three times, and the 82,045 swing high, and price is now pressing the descending trendline from 82,998.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 82,045 swing high clears the descending trendline and breaks the lower-high chain, with the 82,465 ny high next
Failure at the 81,700 range floor and a break of the 81,643 ny low extends the lower-low leg
Renewed USD bid on AI-equity or Fedspeak headlines could reassert pressure on the compression
Lower highs compressing into a 81,690–82,045 range.
London's push to 83,057 failed to hold above 83,000, and the NY open broke the Asian range low near 81,920 to a session low at 81,643. Price has since compressed between the 81,692 range low and the 82,045 range high under a line of lower highs. RSI(14) sits near 50 with no US data in the window, so the hawkish macro backdrop from last week remains the main driver.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 82,045 range high and the lower highs line brings the 82,465 bounce high and the 38.2% of the London-NY drop (~82,180) into view
A break of the 81,643 session low extends the lower-low sequence from the 82,679 pre-NY high
Tue 12:30 UTC US housing starts and permits are the next scheduled macro input for USD-driven moves
20:32 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 49 · price 81,925.78
Lower highs since London high, tight range above session low.
London broke above the Asian range to an 83058 day high and faded. NY selling then took out the Asian low and printed an 81643 session low, with the firm USD and 5.13% 10y keeping the hawkish-Fed tone. Since 16:00 UTC price has compressed between the 81692 range low and the 82046 range high, pressing a falling lower-high line with RSI(14) neutral near 49.
Support: 81,692.00, 81,643.00
Resistance: 82,046.00, 82,465.00, 83,058.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 82046 range high and the lower-high line, near 82000, breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 82465 lower high and the 38.2% fib near 82180 in view
Loss of the 81643 session low extends the London-NY drop
A DXY push back through 102.00 adds macro pressure on this range
Tue 12:30 UTC housing starts and permits are the next scheduled USD catalyst
20:17 UTC
Downtrend from London high, compressing · RSI 49 · price 81,930.77
Lower highs off 83,057; tight 81,640–82,050 range since mid-NY.
London open spiked above the Asian high to 83,057 and reversed. Selling ran through the NY open to an 81,643 session low as the hawkish-Fed USD backdrop and a 5.13% 10y weighed. Since then price has compressed between the 81,700 swing low and the 82,045 range top, pressing a falling trendline of lower highs from 82,465.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the falling trendline and the 82,045 range top breaks the lower-high sequence, with the 82,465 lower high next and the 38.2% of the London-NY drop near 82,185 in between
Failure at the 81,700 swing low and the 81,643 session low resumes the downtrend
No US data in the next 8h; Tue 12:30 UTC housing starts/permits is the next scheduled USD risk
Lower highs from 83,057 pressing into a flat base near 81,700.
BTC rolled over from the 83,057 London high, and NY hours broke below the Asian range low near 81,920. Lower highs have followed since, with a firmer USD and the 10y yield at 5.13% weighing. Late in the NY session price is compressing above a base at 81,700, with the 81,643 NY low just below. RSI(14) sits near 43, not at an extreme.
What it said to watch
Break of the 81,643 NY low extends the lower-low sequence
M15 close above the 81,990 lower high and the lower highs trendline breaks the descending structure, with the 82,465 NY high next above
Repeated holds of the 81,700 base keep the read a compression rather than a fresh leg down
Tue 12:30 UTC US housing starts/permits are the next macro test for USD and BTC
Lower highs since London open, late-NY compression 81640–82050.
The Asia-session rally topped at 83057 at the London open and was rejected. A descending trendline of lower highs since then led into a NY-open slide through the 82022 London low to an 81643 session low. Late NY is compressing between that low and the 82046 lower high, with price pinned at EMA20 and RSI(14) near 48, while firmer US yields at 5.13% keep the macro backdrop hostile.
Support: 81,692.00, 81,643.00
Resistance: 82,046.00, 82,465.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 82046 lower high and descending trendline breaks the lower-high sequence, with 82465 NY high next
Failure to hold the 81692 higher low and 81643 session low extends the NY downleg
A reclaim of the 50% fib (82350) of the day high-session low drop is needed to repair the London-NY damage
No US data until Tue 12:30 UTC housing starts/permits; yields and equity jitters stay the driver
19:32 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 45 · price 81,881.83
Lower highs from the Asia peak; late-NY range 81,643–82,046.
BTC has printed lower highs since the 83,058 Asia-session peak. The NY open selloff hit a day low of 81,643 against a firm USD and hawkish-Fed backdrop. Late NY trade is compressing below the 82,046 range top, with the 81,692 recent low marginally higher, RSI(14) neutral near 45, and a descending trendline capping the 82,465 NY high and 82,679 lower high.
What it said to watch
A close above the 82,046 range top and the descending trendline (~82,070) breaks the lower-high chain and opens the 38.2% fib retrace near 82,183, then the 82,465 NY high
Failure to hold the 81,692 recent low and the 81,643 day low extends the lower-low sequence
Reclaiming the 82,679 lower high would neutralise the intraday downtrend read
Firm USD with 10y yields near 5.13% keeps the macro headwind in place; Tue 12:30 UTC housing data is the next scheduled US release
Lower highs since London open, compressing above 81,640–81,700 floor.
The 83,057 London-open high has been followed by a chain of lower highs. The NY selloff broke the Asian low at 81,922 and set a session low at 81,643. Late NY trade is now compressing between that floor and the 82,045 lower high, RSI(14) neutral near 42, with no fresh data and last week's hot PPI/hawkish Fed backdrop still setting the tone.
What it said to watch
Close below the 81,643 session low (and the 81,692 swing low) extends the lower-low sequence
Recovery above the 82,045 lower high, near the 38.2% of the NY selloff, breaks the lower-highs trendline and reopens the 82,465 NY high
Reclaim of the 81,922 Asian low would put price back inside the earlier Asian range
Tue 12:30 UTC US housing starts/permits is the next scheduled data risk
18:47 UTC
Downtrend from London high, momentum flattening · RSI 40 · price 81,919.78
Lower highs from 83057; late-NY compression 81692–82045 just below Asian range low.
Rejection at the 83057 London open high set a lower-highs chain (82998, 82679 lower high, 82465 NY high), and NY broke the Asian range low near 81922 before holding the 81643 NY low. Late NY is compressing between the 81692 swing low and the 82045 swing high, with a firmer USD and 10y yields at 5.13% as the backdrop.
Support: 81,692.03, 81,643.09
Resistance: 82,465.18, 82,678.95
What it said to watch
Close below 81643 NY low extends the lower-low sequence
Close above 82045 swing high breaks the late-NY range; 82465 NY high and the lower-highs trendline sit above
Reclaim of the 82679 lower high invalidates the downtrend read
18:33 UTC
Intraday downtrend, compressing late NY · RSI 39 · price 81,750.97
Lower highs since London open rejection; Asian low broken in NY, tight box above session low.
The London open spike to 83,057 was rejected, and every rally since has printed a lower high along the lower highs trendline. NY broke the 81,922 Asian low and set a session low at 81,643. Late NY is compressing in an 81,690–82,045 box below EMA20, RSI(14) near 39, with a firm USD and hawkish-Fed pricing in the backdrop and no fresh US data today.
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 81,922 asian low and the 82,046 lower high would break the lower-high chain
Failure to hold the 81,692 swing low and 81,643 session low extends the lower-low sequence
Reclaim of the 82,465 ny high and the lower highs trendline invalidates the downtrend read
Next US data is Tue 12:30 UTC housing starts/permits; nothing scheduled in the next 8h
Lower highs and lower lows since London open; tight late-NY range 81,736–82,046.
The London open break above the Asian range high to 83,057 failed, and price has since made lower highs and lower lows. NY broke the Asian low and set a ny low at 81,643, and price is now compressing between the 81,736 swing low and the 82,046 minor high, below both EMAs with RSI(14) near 37. The backdrop stays the hawkish-Fed read from last week's hot PPI, and the only print today was a soft NAHB.
What it said to watch
A close above the 82,046 minor high and the falling trendline near 82,180 would interrupt the lower-high chain. That trendline area also lines up with the 38.2% fib of the 83,057–81,643 leg.
Failure to hold the 81,736 swing low and the 81,643 ny low would extend the lower-low sequence.
A recovery through the 82,465 lower high would invalidate the intraday downtrend read.
The calendar is quiet into Asia. The next scheduled USD risk is Tue 12:30 UTC housing starts and permits.
Lower highs from the London-open high, price below the Asian range.
Rejection at the 83,058 session high on the London open started a lower-high chain. NY hours broke the Asian range and printed an 81,643 session low; the 82,465 lower high stalled just under the 61.8% retrace. Price has held a tight 81,640–82,000 range under the descending trendline for two hours, with RSI(14) near 41 and USD steadying on the 10y yield bounce.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 82,000 range top and through the descending trendline (~82,230) would break the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 81,643 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 81,000 round number
A move back above the 82,465 lower high reopens the 83,058 session high
Tue 12:30 UTC US housing starts/permits could shift USD and alter this read
Lower highs since London open, compressing above NY session low.
BTC peaked at 83,057 into London open. Lower highs at 82,998, 82,679 and the 82,465 NY high have stepped it down since, and NY printed a 81,643 session low as the firm-USD, hawkish-Fed backdrop held. After London close price is compressing in a tight 81,800–82,000 band (range low to range top), with RSI(14) near 42 and price under both EMAs.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 82,000 range top opens a retest of the 82,465 NY high
Close above 82,465 breaks the lower-highs trendline and the lower-high sequence from 82,679
Failure to hold the 81,800 range low exposes the 81,643 session low; a break there extends the lower-low chain
Lower highs and lower lows since London open high; tight shelf above session low.
The Asia rally peaked at the 83,057.53 London high at London open, followed by a falling trendline of lower highs. NY selling reached the 81,643.09 session low as USD firmed on the 10y rebound to 5.13%. Late NY is compressing on a shelf low near 81,810, capped by the 82,000 round number, with RSI(14) near 42.
What it said to watch
Break of the 81,643 session low extends the lower-low sequence; the 81,810 shelf low is the first floor
M15 close above the 82,000 round number ends the late-NY compression
Reclaim of the 82,465 lower high and the falling trendline breaks the lower-high chain; the fib 50% sits at 82,350
Only a return to the 83,057 london high would undo the London-to-NY decline
Further gains in the 10y yield or DXY above 102.00 would add to the USD-led pressure on this read
17:07 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since London · RSI 41 · price 81,899.81
Lower-high/lower-low chain, price just under Asian low.
London open pushed through the Asian high at 82810 to a 83058 london high and failed. Price has since carved lower highs at 82998, 82679 and 82465, and NY extended to a 81643 session low. After London close price sits just under the 81922 Asian low with RSI(14) near 41, against a firmer-USD, hot-PPI macro backdrop.
Support: 81,643.09, 81,000.00
Resistance: 81,921.78, 82,465.18, 83,057.53
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 81922 asian low returns price to the Asian range
Break below the 81643 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 81000 round number
Close above the 82465 lower high and the descending trendline breaks the lower-high sequence; fib 50–61.8% sits at 82350–82517
Tue 12:30 UTC US housing data is the next scheduled USD input; DXY and 10y moves remain the macro driver
16:47 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since London open · RSI 38 · price 81,897.81
Lower-high chain from 83057; Asian range low broken in NY.
London open briefly pushed above the Asian range high to the 83057 london high, then failed. Since then BTC has carved lower highs at 82998, 82679 and 82465 and broken the 81922 asian low during NY hours, printing a 81643 ny low against a strong-USD, hawkish-Fed backdrop. Price is now pinned just under the asian low, with RSI(14) near 38 and well clear of oversold.
Support: 81,643.09, 81,452.30
Resistance: 81,921.78, 82,465.18
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 81922 asian low and then the 82465 lower high would break the lower-high chain and the descending trendline
Failure to hold the 81643 ny low exposes the 81452 swing low at the base of Sunday's rally
Bounces stalling in the 82180–82350 zone (38.2–50% of the 83057–81643 fib) keep the downtrend sequence intact
A DXY push through 102.03–102.10 would add to the USD headwind behind the NY selling
16:32 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since London open · RSI 38 · price 81,898.81
LH/LL sequence from 83,057; price just below Asian range low.
London's push above the Asian range high to 83,057 failed. Since then the chart has printed lower highs at 82,998, 82,679 and 82,465, and lows stepped down to the 81,643 session low during NY hours. Price sits just under the 81,922 Asian low with RSI(14) near 38, against a hot-US-data, firm-USD backdrop.
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 81,922 Asian low puts price back inside the Asian range
Failure to hold the 81,643 session low exposes the 81,442 prior pivot from Sunday's breakout
Close above the lower-highs trendline and the 82,465 lower high breaks the LH sequence
16:17 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since early London · RSI 38 · price 81,944.76
Lower highs and lower lows; NY probing below the asian low.
The early-London spike to the 83058 london high was rejected. Since then, lower highs at 82998, 82679 (pre-ny high) and 82465 (lower high) have formed a descending trendline. NY session broke the 81922 asian low and printed a 81643 session low; price is back near the asian low with RSI(14) ~38, below EMA20/50, against a hawkish-Fed macro backdrop.
Support: 81,922.00, 81,643.00
Resistance: 82,465.00, 82,679.00, 83,058.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 82465 lower high and the lower-highs trendline breaks the descending sequence
Acceptance below the 81643 session low extends the NY lower-low chain
Sustained closes back above the 81922 asian low would mark the NY break as a false break
Tue 12:30 UTC US housing starts/permits is the next scheduled USD risk; nothing on the calendar in the next 8h
15:47 UTC
Intraday downtrend from London-open high · RSI 39 · price 81,983.71
Lower highs since 83,057; NY bounce capped below trendline.
BTC ground higher through the Asian session to a 83,057 session high at London open, then printed lower highs at the 82,679 prior high and 82,465 against the hawkish-Fed backdrop left by last week's hot PPI. The NY open drop set a 81,678 NY low, and the rebound stalled at the 82,465 lower high, under the 61.8% fib and the descending trendline. Price is now back near the 81,814 swing low with RSI(14) near 39.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 82,465 lower high and the descending trendline breaks the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 81,814 swing low exposes the 81,678 NY low
A break of the NY low confirms a fresh lower-low in the London-NY downtrend
Recovery through the 82,679 prior high puts the 83,057 session high back in play
15:32 UTC
Intraday downtrend from London high, stabilising · RSI 44 · price 82,208.47
Lower highs since 83,058; NY sweep low reclaimed, mid-range.
The London-open spike to the 83,058 London high failed back inside the Asian range and started a lower-high chain. At the NY open, price swept the London low at 82,023 and the Asian low to an NY low of 81,678, then reclaimed both. Price is now pivoting at the 38.2% retracement near 82,205, capped by the 82,465 NY high under the lower-high line, with RSI(14) neutral near 44 and no BTC-specific driver beyond AI-equity-led USD swings.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 82,465 NY high and the lower-high line breaks the lower-high sequence and opens the 82,679 lower high
Failure back below the 82,023 London low and the 81,922 Asian low re-exposes the 81,678 NY low
A move through the 83,058 London high would negate the false-break read
AI/tech equity direction during NY hours is the main macro driver per the USD digest
15:17 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since London open · RSI 45 · price 82,145.54
Lower highs and lower lows from the London high; price back inside the Asian range.
The Asian rally off the Sunday low was rejected at the 83,057 london high at London open. Lower highs followed at 82,998 and 82,679, and the first hour of NY swept the asian low at 81,922 to an 81,678 ny low. The rebound stalled at the 82,459 spike high, inside the 50–61.8% retrace of the London-NY drop, with price under both EMAs against a hawkish-Fed macro headwind.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 82,679 lower high breaks the lower-highs sequence and puts the 83,057 london high back in play
Failure to hold the 81,922 asian low re-exposes the 81,678 ny low; a close below it extends the lower-low chain
Rejection at the 82,459 spike high keeps the rebound contained within the London-NY drop retrace
Tue 12:30 UTC US housing starts/permits and AI-equity-driven USD swings could shift this read
15:04 UTC
Intraday downtrend from the London high, stabilising · RSI 48 · price 82,175.50
Lower highs since London; NY swept the Asian low and reclaimed, price back inside the Asian range.
London's break of the Asian high failed at the 83,058 london high. The NY open slide then swept the asian low (81,922) to a 81,678 ny low before reclaiming it. The bounce stalled at the 82,459 spike high, near the 50–61.8% retrace of the London high-NY low drop, and price sits below both EMAs with RSI(14) near 48. There was no BTC-specific catalyst; the move traded the broader US rates and AI-equity backdrop.
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the london low 82,023 reopens the asian low 81,922
Failure to hold the ny low 81,678 confirms a lower-low below the Asian range
Close above the spike high 82,459 and the lower highs line puts the pre-NY high 82,679 in play; london high 83,058 caps the session
AI-equity swings and front-end yields during NY hours are the live macro input for this read
14:47 UTC
Intraday downtrend from London high, NY dip reclaimed · RSI 49 · price 82,135.55
Lower highs since London open; NY swept the Asian low then recovered.
London open pushed above the Asian range to 83,058 and was rejected, leaving a sequence of lower highs at 82,998 and 82,679. NY open broke the asian low near 81,922 to a ny low of 81,678 before buyers stepped in. Price is back at 82,135, under EMA20 with RSI(14) neutral near 48, against a macro backdrop driven by the AI-equity selloff and front-end yields.
What it said to watch
A close back below the asian low at 81,922 would undo the reclaim and put the ny low at 81,678 back in play
The fib 38.2 retracement of the London-high-to-NY-low drop at ~82,205 is the first cap on the recovery
A break of the descending trendline near 82,520 and a close above the lower high at 82,679 would negate the lower-high sequence
Holding the london low at 82,022 keeps the NY-open drop reading as a sweep rather than a fresh lower low
No US data in the next 8h; AI/tech equity swings remain the main macro driver, with US housing data due Tue
14:32 UTC
Downtrend since London open high · RSI 42 · price 81,985.71
Lower highs from 83,058; Asian low broken at NY open.
The Sunday-evening rally from 80,601 topped at the 83,058 London high. Since then the tape has printed lower highs at 82,998 and 82,680, and the NY open broke the Asian low at 81,922. The sweep to the 81,678 NY low drew a sharp rejection wick, but rebounds are capping near 82,180, with price below EMA20/50 and RSI(14) around 42 as the strong-USD, hawkish-Fed backdrop weighs; there is no BTC-specific driver.
What it said to watch
Repeated M15 closes back below the 81,922 Asian low would turn the 81,678 rejection into a failed hold
A break of the 81,678 NY low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 80,601 Sunday low
An M15 close above the 82,680 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline and neutralises the downtrend read
AI-equity swings and front-end yields during NY hours are the main USD driver into Tuesday's housing data
14:17 UTC
Pullback from day high, lower highs forming · RSI 44 · price 82,164.51
Lower highs below 83057; NY low swept 81678 and reclaimed.
The overnight rally from 80601 topped at the 83057 day high around London open, and London then printed a lower high at 82998 and a 82022 london low. The NY open flush ran to an 81678 ny low before closing back near 82145, a sweep, while the 82679 lower high continues to cap with price under both EMAs against a firm-data, hike-risk USD backdrop.
Support: 81,678.05
Resistance: 82,678.95
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 82022 london low would turn the NY wick into a lower-low sequence and put the 81678 ny low back in play
M15 close above the 82679 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline and reopens the 83057 day high
Fib 50–61.8% band of the day-high-to-NY-low drop (82368–82530) is the first area to watch for rejection or acceptance
US tech-equity swings and front-end yields are steering USD into the NY afternoon and could shift this read
14:04 UTC
Intraday downtrend from London high, momentum heavy · RSI 35 · price 81,953.75
Lower highs and a fresh lower low after London false break above the Asian range.
London's push above the Asian range to 83,057 failed. It left lower highs at 82,998 and the NY lower high at 82,679. The NY open sell-off has cut through the 82,023 prior low and is now pressing the Asian low at 81,922 with RSI(14) near 35, between the 38.2% and 50% retracement of the Sunday-night rally.
What it said to watch
Sustained trade below the 81,922 asian low exposes the 50% fib near 81,830 and the 81,625 rally base
Recovery back above the 82,023 prior low would mark the break below it as a false move
M15 close above the 82,679 lower high invalidates the lower-high trendline read
No BTC-specific catalyst in the feed; a deeper US tech equity sell-off is the main macro swing factor this session
13:47 UTC
Intraday pullback, lower highs since London open · RSI 37 · price 82,144.54
Lower highs from 83,058 London high; London low at 82,023 being retested.
BTC reversed from the 83,058 London high and capped at a lower high of 82,679, near the 61.8% retracement of the London drop. The first NY bars sold back toward the 82,023 London low, with RSI(14) at 37 and price below both EMAs. ATR(14) is about 180 points.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 82,023 London low confirms a lower-low and exposes the 81,922 Asia pivot
Close above the 82,679 lower high and the descending trendline breaks the lower-high sequence and reopens the 83,058 London high
No US calendar risk in the next 8h; per the digest, US tech-equity moves and dollar direction are the macro driver
Lower highs from 83057 against a 82020 base, compressing into NY.
The Sunday-evening rally from 80601 topped at the 83057 London high. The 82998 lower high then gave way to a drop to the 82022 London low, near the 38.2% fib of the rally, where a double bottom formed with 82047. The first hour of NY was rejected at the 82680 NY high, and price is back below EMA20 with RSI(14) at 44.
Support: 82,022.00, 81,922.00
Resistance: 82,680.00, 82,998.00, 83,057.00
What it said to watch
A close below the 82022 London low voids the double bottom and exposes the 81922 Asia low.
A recovery through the 82680 NY high breaks the lower-highs trendline and reopens the 82998 lower high and the 83057 London high.
No US data is scheduled in the next 8h. US tech-equity swings and Fed-hike repricing remain the macro driver.
Lower highs from the 83057 London-open top; double bottom at 82025 holding.
The Sunday-night rally from 80601 ran through Asia into an 83057 London-open high. A lower high at 82998 gave way to a drop to 82023, where a double bottom formed just under the 38.2% fib. The rebound has stalled at a lower high at 82680 into the London-NY transition, with price sitting between EMA50 and EMA20 and RSI(14) near 46; the macro feed has no BTC-specific driver.
Support: 82,120.00, 82,025.00, 81,830.00
Resistance: 82,680.00, 83,057.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 82680 lower high breaks the lower-highs line and brings the london high at 83057 back into play
Loss of the 82025 london low negates the double bottom and exposes the 50% fib at 81830
Repeated failure under the 82680 lower high keeps the 38.2% fib at 82120 in focus
NY open is imminent with no US data today; the softer USD tone tied to the AI-equity sell-off is the main external swing factor
13:07 UTC
Intraday uptrend from Sunday low, in correction since London open · RSI 50 · price 82,507.14
Asian high swept and rejected at 83,057; lower highs since, double bottom at 82,023/82,047 holding.
The Asia-session rally from the 80,601 Sunday low ended in a London-open sweep of the Asian high to the 83,057 24h high, which was rejected. A lower high at 82,998 followed, and London sold off to the 82,023 london low, a ~42% retrace of the rally fib that held above the fib 50% at 81,829. A double bottom at 82,023/82,047 has lifted price back to 82,500 into the NY open, with RSI(14) neutral near 50 and the 82,613 recovery high capping so far. The macro backdrop reads as a firm-USD headwind, though nothing BTC-specific is in the feed.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 82,613 recovery high breaks the lower-highs trendline and reopens the 82,998 lower high and the 83,057 24h high
Failure to hold the 82,023 london low turns the pullback into a lower low and exposes the fib 50% at 81,829
NY open at 13:30 UTC and US AI/tech equity moves are the main near-term volatility driver; no US data is scheduled in the next 8h
12:47 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pulled back and rebuilding · RSI 50 · price 82,525.12
Asian-range false break at London open, pullback held 38.2% fib, higher lows since 82,022.
The London open spike to the 83,057 london high failed back inside the Asian range, and the 82,998 lower high preceded a slide to the 82,022 pullback low. That low held between the 38.2% fib and 50% of the 80,601–83,057 rally. Price has rebuilt to 82,525 into the NY session, sitting just above both EMAs with RSI(14) near 50 and ATR(14) around $197; the 82,613 bounce high is capping the recovery.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 82,022 pullback low breaks the higher-low sequence and exposes the 81,922 asian low
M15 close above the 82,613 bounce high reopens the 82,998 lower high and 83,057 london high
No US data scheduled in the next 8h; NY-open equity tone and the AI-stock sell-off are the main swing factors for the USD backdrop
Lower high at 82,998, double low near 82,020, rebuilding.
The overnight leg from Sunday's 80,601 low topped at the 83,057 asian high. London posted a rejection at an 82,998 lower high and dropped to the 82,023 london low, holding near the fib 38.2. Price is rebuilding into the London-NY transition, with RSI(14) neutral at 51 and the swing high at 82,548 capping for now; there is no BTC-specific news, so the macro dollar tone is setting the backdrop.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 82,548 swing high reopens the 82,998 lower high and 83,057 asian high
Failure to hold the 82,020 london low and the fib 38.2 voids the double low and exposes the 81,921 asian low
No USD data in the next 8h. NY open dollar flows are the main swing factor ahead of Tue housing data
Lower high at 82998 after 83058 rejection; higher low 82023 held above Asian low.
The overnight rally from 80601 ended in a false break of the 82809 Asian high at the London open. Price was rejected at the 83058 London high, set a lower high at 82998 and slid to the 82023 London low, near the 38.2% fib of the rally. Twin lows at 82023/82047 held above the 81922 Asian low, and price has recovered to 82526 in late London, back above EMA20/EMA50 with RSI(14) near 46, against a firm-USD macro backdrop.
Support: 82,023.00, 81,922.00
Resistance: 82,809.00, 82,998.00, 83,058.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 82023 london low breaks the double bottom and exposes the 81922 asian low
Reclaim of the 82809 asian high reopens the 82998 lower high and 83058 london high
No US data before Tue housing/ADP; NY-session US equity direction is the near-term USD driver for BTC
False break of Asian high, lower high, holding above session low.
London open pushed the 80,601–83,058 rally above the 82,810 Asian high, but the break failed. A lower high at 82,998 preceded a drop through the 82,496 London low. Price is now basing above the 82,023 session low, just under the 38.2% retrace, with the 82,386 bounce high capping into the London-NY transition; there is no BTC-specific news and macro inputs are thin.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 82,023 session low exposes the 81,922 Asian low and the 50% retrace near 81,829
Reclaim of the 82,386 bounce high and the 82,496 London low would neutralise the lower-highs sequence
Return above the 82,810 Asian high reopens the 83,058 session high
NY open and US AI-equity direction are the main near-term USD swing factors; no scheduled US data in the next 8h
The rally from Sunday's 80601 low was rejected at a double top of 82997–83057 (session high) during London. A 10:15 UTC flush then set the London low at 82022 and broke the overnight higher-low chain, and a lower high at 82386 is now capping rebounds. Price sits below EMA20/50 with RSI(14) near 38, and lows are holding close to the 38.2% fib at about 82119. There is no BTC-specific catalyst and the dollar backdrop is mixed.
Support: 81,921.78
Resistance: 82,386.27
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 82386 lower high would negate the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the London low at 82022 would expose the Asia low at 81922 and the 50% fib near 81829
Only a reclaim of the 82997–83057 double top / session high would restore the uptrend read
NY open at 13:30 UTC is the next session test; no scheduled US data in the next 8h, US housing data due Tue 12:30 UTC
Lower high under 83057, London breakdown to 82023, basing at 38.2% fib.
Asia extended Sunday's rebound from 80601 into a London-open spike to the 83057 session high, which was rejected. A lower high at 82998 gave way to a sell-off at 10:15 UTC to the 82023 London low, and price is now pinned near the 38.2% fib of the rally at 82119, with RSI(14) near 38 and a firm-USD backdrop per the digest.
Support: 82,022.67, 81,921.78, 81,829.40
Resistance: 82,386.27, 82,997.60
What it said to watch
Close below the 82023 london low exposes the 81922 asian low and the 50% fib near 81829
Recovery above the 82386 bounce high would negate the post-London breakdown read; the lower high at 82998 and the 83057 session high cap above
No US data due in the next 8h. USD direction and AI-equity tone are the main external drivers into Tuesday's housing releases
Asian HH/HL chain broken; London printing lower highs below 83,057.
Asia rallied steadily off Sunday's 80,601 low. At London open price swept the Asian high near 82,809 to an 83,057 session high and was rejected. A lower high at 82,998 followed, and price then broke the 82,496 broken low and the rising Asian trendline. Price now sits on the 38.2% fib of the rally near 82,105, just above the 82,023 session low, RSI(14) ~36 and below both EMAs, with a firm-USD backdrop after last week's hot PPI.
What it said to watch
M15 close below 82,023 session low exposes the 81,922 asian low and the 50% fib near 81,830
Reclaim of the 82,386 bounce high and 82,496 broken low would neutralise the London lower-high sequence
NY open in ~2h is the first test of whether the session low holds; 83,057 session high caps the rally structure
Double top at 83,058/82,998 with neckline 82,496 broken; bounce off 82,023.
The Asia session rally from Sunday's 80,601 low was rejected at the 83,058 session high early in London. A lower high at 82,998 then gave way to a slide through the 82,496 broken low, printing a double top. The drop stalled at the 82,023 swing low near the 38.2% fib, against a firm-USD backdrop left by last week's hot PPI and retail sales.
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 82,023 swing low exposes the 81,922 asia low and the 50% fib near 81,830
A close back above the 82,496 broken low weakens the double top read
A close above the 82,998 lower high breaks the lower highs line and reopens the session high
RSI(14) near 37 leaves room for further downside before oversold
Tue US housing data is the next scheduled USD input; the main macro risk sits with Fri PMIs
Double top at 83,058/82,998, Asian range broken lower.
The overnight rally from 80,601 stalled at the 83,058 london high in early London. A lower high at 82,998 then gave way to a sharp drop through the 82,496 prior low and the Asian low, printing a session low at 82,023. Price is now pinned at the 82,259 asian low from beneath, below both EMAs with RSI(14) near 35, and there is no BTC-specific catalyst in play.
What it said to watch
Failure to reclaim the 82,259 asian low keeps the double top and range break read intact
A return above the 82,496 prior low neutralises the double top
An M15 close below the 82,023 session low exposes the 81,922 swing low from the overnight base
NY open liquidity could extend or reverse the London drop; no US data due in the next 8h
Lower high at 82,998 after false break of the Asian high; London low and rising support broken.
Early London pushed through the Asian high to a session high at 83,057 and failed, then printed a lower high at 82,998. Price has since broken the 82,496 London low and the rising support from the Asia session, and now sits on the session low near 82,110, roughly the 38.2% fib of the Sunday rally, with RSI(14) near 31. There is no BTC-specific news, and the drop lines up with the heavy risk tone from the AI-equity sell-off.
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 82,110 session low and the fib 38.2 exposes the asian low at 81,920 and the fib 50 near 81,830
A reclaim of the 82,496 london low would neutralise the breakdown, with the 82,998 lower high and 83,057 session high above
RSI(14) pushing under 30 marks the London drop as stretched on this timeframe
US housing data on Tue at 12:30 UTC is the next scheduled macro input for the USD/risk backdrop
10:17 UTC
Uptrend off Sunday low, stalling in London · RSI 44 · price 82,588.05
HH/HL chain from 80,601 intact; London lower high below the 83,057 false break.
BTC rebuilt from the 80,601 Sunday-evening low through Asia as the dollar gave back its Monday gap. London's push through the Asian high at 82,810 to the 83,057 session high closed back inside, and a lower high at 82,998 has dropped price toward the 82,496 London low and rising support; RSI(14) is near 44 and ATR(14) about 178 USD.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 82,496 London low and rising support breaks the overnight HL chain, exposing the 82,381 swing low
Reclaim of the 82,810 Asian high puts the 82,998 lower high and 83,057 session high back in play
DXY back above 102.00 would add to the macro headwind flagged in the BTC digest
Higher lows intact; London false break of Asian high, lower high at 82998.
The late-Sunday reversal from 80601 carried through Asia on higher lows as DXY slipped back below 102.00. The London open spike above the asian high to the 83057 london high was rejected. The 82998 lower high also failed, putting price back under 82810 and EMA20 mid-London, with RSI(14) near 47 and ATR around 178 USD.
Support: 82,496.00, 82,381.00
Resistance: 82,810.00, 82,998.00, 83,057.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 82496 london low breaks the higher-low line and the higher-low sequence, turning 83057/82998 into a double top
Asia pivot at 82381 is the next swing support if 82496 gives way
Recovery back above the 82810 asian high reopens the 82998 lower high and 83057 london high
DXY reclaiming 102.00 is the main macro headwind flagged for BTC
HH/HL chain off Sunday's 80,601 low; retesting the London session high.
The V-recovery from Sunday's 80,601 low built higher highs and higher lows through Asia. The London open spike to the 83,057 session high was rejected, but the 82,496 London low held and a higher swing low formed at 82,643. Price is back above the Asian high and pressing the 83,000 round number with RSI(14) near 64. The firm-USD macro headwind in the digest has not shown on this tape.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 83,057 session high extends the higher-high chain; a second rejection there would leave a flat top under 83,000.
Loss of the 82,643 swing low and then the 82,496 London low would break the higher-low sequence. The 38.2% rally fib sits near 82,120.
Asian high at 82,810 is the first area to monitor on pullbacks; a move back under it puts price back inside the overnight range.
No scheduled US data in the next 8h. Moves in USD and AI-linked equities into the NY open are the main macro swing factor.
09:32 UTC
Uptrend, pressing back toward London high · RSI 61 · price 82,879.73
HH/HL chain from 80,601 low intact; early-London spike to 83,058 rejected, higher low held at 82,496.
BTC built a steady HH/HL climb off Sunday's 80,601 low through Asia. Early London spiked to the 83,058 London high and was rejected to the 82,496 London low, near the 23.6% fib, before reclaiming the Asian high at 82,810. Price is now at 82,880, just under that rejection high, with RSI(14) ~61 and ATR around $165, trading off the macro dollar backdrop with no BTC-specific news.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 83,058 London high negates the early-London rejection and extends the HH chain
Failure to hold the 82,810 Asian high and the rising trendline (~82,630) exposes the 82,496 London low
Break below the 82,496 London low, then the 82,259 swing low, ends the higher-low sequence from 80,601
DXY push back above 102.03 is the main macro headwind; no scheduled USD data in the next 8h
09:16 UTC
Uptrend, stalling below London spike high · RSI 56 · price 82,743.88
Higher lows off Sunday low; London false break above Asian high, now ranging 82496–82875.
The Sunday rally from 80601 carried through the Asian session, but London's push above the asian high to the 83058 session high was rejected within the bar. Price has since printed a lower high at 82875 and held the 82496 london low, with RSI(14) cooled to ~56. Higher lows from the 82381 swing low remain intact despite the firm-USD macro backdrop.
Support: 82,496.15, 82,381.28
Resistance: 82,809.80, 82,874.73, 83,057.53
What it said to watch
Acceptance back above the 82810 asian high and the 82875 lower high reopens the 83058 session high
M15 close below the 82496 london low breaks the higher lows line and exposes the 82381 swing low
Loss of 82381 swing low ends the higher-low chain from the Sunday rally and puts the 38.2% fib near 82119 in play
No US data in the next 8h; dollar direction around DXY 102 remains the main external driver
Higher-low chain from 80601 intact; lower high after London rejection.
BTC turned up from Sunday's 80601 low as the USD gave back its Monday open gap, building higher lows through Asia. Early London pushed above the Asian high to a session high at 83057 and was rejected. The 82875 lower high and the 82496 London low now frame the range, with price sitting on EMA20 and RSI(14) neutral near 54.
Support: 82,496.15, 82,381.28
Resistance: 82,874.73
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 82496 london low breaks the higher-lows trendline and puts the 82381 swing low in play
Close back above the 82875 lower high reopens the 83057 session high; acceptance above it voids the false-break read
23.6% fib of the 80601-83057 leg sits near 82478, alongside the london low
08:47 UTC
Uptrend, stalling at Asian high · RSI 59 · price 82,767.85
Higher lows since 80,601; London false break above Asian range.
The rally from Sunday's 80,601 low carried through Asia despite the hot-US-data macro headwind. London open spiked above the 82,810 Asian high to an 83,058 session high and was rejected, a false break. The pullback held the 82,496 London low near the 23.6% retracement of the rally fib and on the rising lows line, and price is back under the Asian high with RSI(14) near 59.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 83,058 session high negates the false break and resumes the HH chain
Loss of the 82,496 London low and the rising lows trendline exposes the 82,381 swing low
Acceptance below the 82,381 swing low breaks the overnight higher-low sequence
HH/HL chain off 80,601 low, now pausing after a London-open rejection.
BTC climbed through the Asia session from the 80,601 Sunday low in a clean HH/HL chain. At London open it spiked to the 83,057 session high above the Asian range, then reversed. That makes it a false break, and price is back inside 82,500–82,840. The pullback held at the 82,496 london low, above the 82,458 swing low, so the rising trendline is intact. There is no BTC-specific driver; the macro backdrop is still last week's hot US PPI and retail sales.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 82,840 lower high reopens the 83,057 session high
Break below the 82,458 swing low and the 82,381 asian hl would end the HH/HL chain and the rising trendline
Deeper pullback would bring the 38.2% fib of the overnight rally near 82,120 into view
No US data in the next 8h; a firmer USD remains the main macro headwind into Tuesday's housing data
08:17 UTC
Uptrend from Sunday low, stalling after London rejection · RSI 48 · price 82,611.02
Higher-high chain through Asia; London false break above the Asian high, price back inside the range.
The overnight rally from Sunday's 80,601 low built higher highs through the Asia session. The London open spike to the london high at 83,057, above the asian high at 82,810, reversed fast, and price is back near 82,611, just under EMA20, with RSI(14) neutral near 48. No BTC-specific catalyst. The broader backdrop is the residual hawkish US macro tone from last week's hot PPI.
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the asian high at 82,810 negates the false break read
Loss of the london low at 82,496, near the 23.6% fib of the overnight rally, confirms the break of the higher-low line and exposes the swing low at 82,381
Below the swing low, the 38.2% fib near 82,120 is the next reference
No US data until Tuesday's housing releases at 12:30 UTC; drift stays macro-tone driven
08:05 UTC
Uptrend off Sunday low, stalling after rejection · RSI 55 · price 82,665.96
Asia higher-low chain; London false break of Asian high, trendline lost.
BTC recovered from Sunday's 80601 low with a higher-low chain through the Asia session, then the London open pushed through the 82810 Asian high to 83057 and was rejected straight back inside the range. That rejection broke the Asian trendline. Price is now holding the 82590 swing low, with RSI(14) near 55. The quiet weekend tape leaves the residual hawkish US macro tone as the only backdrop.
Support: 82,590.00, 82,478.00, 82,120.00
Resistance: 82,810.00, 83,057.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 82590 swing low confirms a lower low after the rejection and exposes the fib 23.6 near 82478
Reclaim of the 82810 Asian high and the Asian trendline negates the false-break read
Acceptance above the 83057 London high re-establishes the HH chain
Failure at fib 38.2 near 82120 would put most of the overnight rally fib move at risk
07:47 UTC
Uptrend, rejection at highs · RSI 67 · price 82,793.82
HH/HL chain off Sunday low; London-open spike above Asian high rejected.
The overnight rally from the 80,601 Sunday low lifted BTC through the 82,784 Asian high. The London-open spike to the 83,057 spike high was rejected, with the bar closing back at 82,794, just under the 82,810 range cap. The higher-low chain holds above the rising tl near 82,640 and RSI(14) sits near 67; with no BTC-specific news, residual hawkish US macro is the backdrop.
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 82,710 micro low exposes the 82,580 swing low and the rising tl near 82,640
An M15 close above the 83,057 spike high negates the rejection read
An M15 close back inside the 82,810 range cap keeps the push contained to an Asian-high sweep
US calendar is empty until Tue 12:30 UTC housing data; USD direction remains the macro driver
The Asia session extended the recovery from Sunday's 80,601 low into a clean HH/HL chain, clearing the 82,201 Sunday high. Early London is stalling under a flat 82,810 session high, with four bars capped there, RSI(14) near 69 and the latest higher low at 82,586. There are no BTC headlines in the feed, so price is trading off the residual hawkish US macro tone with ATR around $128.
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 82,810 session high opens the 83,000 round number.
A break of the 82,586 higher low and the rising trendline would end the Asia HH/HL chain, with the 82,458 swing low next.
Losing the 82,201 Sunday high puts the recovery fib 38.2–50% zone (81,966–81,705) back in play.
Higher-low chain through Asia, highs compressing at 82,780–82,810.
BTC has rebounded about 2,200 from Sunday's 80,601 low. It cleared the sunday high at 82,201 during the Asia session and printed higher lows at 82,381, 82,458 and 82,586 into the London open. Gains are stalling just under the 82,810 session high with RSI(14) near 66. There are no BTC headlines, and the move ran alongside the USD giving back its Monday opening gains.
What it said to watch
A M15 close above the 82,810 session high extends the higher-low sequence toward the 83,000 round number
A break of the 82,586 higher low and the higher-low trendline flattens the structure into a range below 82,810
Failure at the 82,458 swing low points to a deeper pullback toward the sunday high at 82,201, with 38.2% of the rebound fib at ~81,966 below
No US data in the next 8h. Tue housing starts and permits at 12:30 UTC are the next scheduled USD risk
The rally off Sunday's 80601 swing low ran through Asia in a clean HH/HL chain, and price is now pressing the 82810 session high into London open. The 82586 higher low and 82458 swing low hold the rising support line. RSI(14) near 66 is warm but not stretched, and the residual hawkish US macro tone is not visible on this tape.
Support: 82,586.05, 82,458.19
Resistance: 82,809.80, 83,000.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 82810 session high extends the HH chain toward the 83000 round number
A break of rising support and the 82586 higher low would be the first dent in the overnight structure
Loss of the 82458 swing low would mark a lower low and end the HH/HL read
USD safe-haven headlines (Hormuz, French yields) could disrupt the rally off 80601
Higher-low chain off Sunday low, highs stalling near 82,800.
BTC has rebuilt from the 80,601 Sunday low into a higher-low chain through the Asia session. It cleared the 82,201 prior high overnight and printed a session high at 82,810. Into the London open, highs are only marginally higher while RSI(14) eases to ~63, and with no US data since the hot PPI and a soft dollar, there is no fresh macro push.
What it said to watch
Close below the 82,458 higher low and the rising support line breaks the intraday higher-low chain
Loss of the 82,381 swing low exposes the 82,201 prior high as the next retest area
Acceptance above the 82,810 session high opens the 83,000 round number
London open is the first test of the Asian range; a USD bid would add headwind to the overnight rally
06:32 UTC
Uptrend, stalling under session high · RSI 60 · price 82,671.96
Higher-high/higher-low chain off Sunday low, coiling below 82784.
Sunday's slide to 80601 reversed late in the day, and the Asia session has stacked higher lows at 82381 and 82458 up to an 82784 session high, clearing the 82201 sunday high. Price is now compressing just below that high with RSI(14) near 60. The weekend tape was quiet with no BTC-specific news and a soft USD.
Support: 82,458.19, 82,381.28, 82,201.47
Resistance: 82,783.83, 83,000.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 82784 session high extends the higher-high chain toward the 83000 round number
Break below the 82458 higher low and the rising trendline puts the 82381 swing low in play and ends the higher-low sequence
Loss of 82381 exposes a return to the 82201 sunday high and the 38.2% retracement near 81950
London open in ~30 minutes is a likely trigger for a break of the current coil
Higher-low chain off 80601 low, compressing under 82784.
The rebound from Sunday's 80601 low carried through the Asia session in a clean higher-low chain, printing a session high at 82784 before compressing just beneath it, with the 82458 higher low holding. RSI(14) sits near 60. There is no BTC-specific driver in the window, so last week's hot US PPI backdrop remains the macro overhang.
Support: 82,458.19, 82,381.28, 81,921.78
Resistance: 82,783.83, 83,000.00
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 82784 session high opens the 83000 round number
A break of the 82458 higher low and the rising trendline would end the HH/HL chain and expose the 82381 swing low
Loss of 82381 puts the 81922 Asian low back in view
London open is the first test of the Asian range top
Tue US ADP and housing data (12:15–12:30 UTC) is the next scheduled macro risk for the USD backdrop
V-shaped rebound from 80,601 into a higher-lows chain through Asia.
The rebound from Sunday evening's 80,601 low carried through the Asia session, clearing the sunday high at 82,201 and printing higher lows along a rising trendline. Price is now consolidating just under the 82,784 session high, with RSI(14) near 63. The weekend tape was quiet with no BTC-specific headlines, and last week's hot US PPI backdrop is still in the background.
What it said to watch
Close above the 82,784 session high opens the 83,000 round number
Break of the 82,458 swing low and the higher-lows trendline turns the read to range
Loss of the 82,381 pullback low exposes a retest of the 82,201 sunday high, with the 38.2% rebound fib near 81,950
London open in about 1h may break the Asian range; no US data is due in the next 8h
HH/HL chain from 80601 low; consolidating under 82784.
BTC recovered from Sunday's 80601 low, cleared the sunday high at 82201 and printed a session high of 82784 during the Asia session, with higher lows at 82381 and the 05:00 UTC swing low at 82458. Price is holding on the rising trendline with RSI(14) near 63; there is no fresh BTC news, and the hawkish US data backdrop from last week remains the macro headwind.
Support: 82,458.19, 82,381.28, 82,201.47
Resistance: 82,783.83, 82,711.91
What it said to watch
Break below the 82458 swing low and the rising trendline would interrupt the HH/HL chain; the 82381 higher low is next
Close above the 82784 session high, after the prior high at 82712 capped once, extends the higher-high sequence
Loss of 82201 sunday high exposes the 38.2% retrace of the 80601–82784 leg near 81950
London open in ~75 min often expands the Asian range; next US macro risk is Tue ADP and housing data
05:31 UTC
Uptrend, higher highs through Asia · RSI 58 · price 82,604.03
V-shaped recovery from 80601, HH/HL chain intact below session high.
Sunday's NY-hours slide to 80601 fully reversed in a steady Asia session climb, with no BTC headlines and the hawkish US data backdrop not yet reasserting. Late Asia saw a rejection off the 82784 session high, but the 82458 pullback low held above the 82381 swing low, leaving the HH/HL chain intact with RSI(14) a neutral 58.
Support: 82,458.19, 82,381.28
Resistance: 82,783.83, 83,000.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 82381 swing low breaks the higher-low chain
Clean break of the 82784 session high exposes the 83000 round number
Loss of the 82458 pullback low turns the session-high rejection into a lower-high test
London open in ~90 min may bring the first macro-driven flows of the week
Higher highs and higher lows off the 80,601 low; shallow pullback after a rejection at 82,784.
Since Sunday's 80,601 low, BTC has built a higher-high/higher-low chain through the Asia session and cleared the 82,201 Sunday high. The latest push to a session high at 82,784 met rejection back to the 82,458 pullback low. RSI(14) has cooled to ~59 with no fresh crypto catalyst, as the hot US PPI backdrop from last week lingers.
What it said to watch
Loss of the 82,381 higher low breaks the overnight HH/HL chain, exposing the 23.6% fib near 82,268 and the Sunday high at 82,201
M15 close above the 82,712 prior high and the 82,784 session high reopens the 83,000 round number
London open typically expands the Asian range. Holding the 82,458 pullback low keeps the retracement shallow
No US data in the next 8h. Tuesday's ADP and housing releases are the next macro input
05:06 UTC
Uptrend, last thrust fading from high · RSI 58 · price 82,613.02
HH/HL chain off 80601 low, Sunday high cleared.
Asia session is extending a HH/HL chain off Sunday's 80601 low. The rally cleared Sunday's 82201 high and printed a session high at 82784 before the current bar faded to 82613, with RSI(14) near 58 and cooling. The weekend tape was quiet, and BTC is trading off last week's hot US PPI backdrop with no fresh data.
Support: 82,381.28, 82,259.41, 82,000.00
Resistance: 82,783.83, 83,000.00
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 82381 swing low, then the 82259 higher low, breaks the HH/HL chain and the higher-low line
M15 close above the 82784 session high opens the 83000 round number
Loss of 82000 psych, near the 38.2% rally fib, shifts the read from pullback to deeper retracement
No US data in the next 8h; Tue ADP/housing (12:15–12:30 UTC) is the next macro risk
04:47 UTC
Uptrend, testing session high · RSI 63 · price 82,667.96
Higher-high/higher-low chain off Sunday's 80601 low; prior high 82201 cleared.
BTC has rebounded from Sunday's 80601 low through the Asia session, with USD soft and flat in Asia. The move cleared the 82201 prior high, then printed a higher low at 82259 and a swing low at 82381. Price is now pressing the 82712 session high, RSI(14) is near 63 and not stretched, and the macro backdrop remains a low-conviction headwind after last week's hot US PPI.
Support: 82,381.28, 82,259.41, 82,201.47
Resistance: 82,711.91, 83,000.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 82712 session high extends the higher-high chain and opens the 83000 round number
Break below the 82381 swing low stalls the advance into a range under the session high
Loss of the 82259 higher low and the higher-low line breaks intraday structure; the 82201 prior high is then the retest zone
Deeper pullback toward the 38.2% fib of the 80601–82712 rally (~81906) would signal the rebound has lost momentum
A firm USD bid into the London open, on the French-yield and haven themes, could cap the bounce
V-reversal from 80601 into HH/HL chain, now a tight range below the 82712 swing high.
Sunday's selloff bottomed at 80601 during NY hours, then reversed late in the day. The rebound cleared the 82201 prior high and ran through the Asia session to an 82712 swing high. Since then price has compressed between the 82381 range low and the 82536 range high, with RSI(14) cooling to the mid-50s. Weekend flow was quiet with no fresh driver, and the hawkish backdrop from last week's hot US PPI has not capped the rebound.
Support: 82,381.00, 82,259.00, 82,201.00
Resistance: 82,536.00, 82,712.00
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 82381 range low, then a break of the 82259 swing low, would print the first lower low since the 80601 reversal
M15 close above the 82536 range high reopens a test of the 82712 swing high; a break above extends the HH chain
Loss of the 82201 prior high puts the 38.2% fib near 81906 in play
London open in ~2.5h is the first test of whether the Asia range holds
HH/HL recovery from 80,601, shallow lower-high pullback.
Sunday's NY-hours flush to 80,601 reversed into a steady HH/HL climb through the Asian session, topping at the 82,712 session high. Price is now drifting in a shallow pullback with lower highs into 82,449. The swing low at 82,259 and Sunday's prior high near 82,201 sit just below, and the tape is quiet with no fresh driver beyond the hawkish-Fed backdrop.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 82,259 swing low breaks the HL chain and exposes the 82,201 prior high and 23.6% fib
Reclaim of the 82,449 lower high and the pullback line puts the 82,712 session high back in play
Loss of the 81,922 asian low, near the 38.2% fib, would mark a deeper retrace of the overnight rally
London open in ~3h is the first test of the Asian range
Higher-low chain from 80601, pullback from 82712 high.
BTC rallied from the 80601 weekend low starting Sunday 22:00 UTC, printing higher highs to an 82712 session high at 02:45 UTC before a rejection. The Asia session has since drifted back toward the 82381 pullback low with RSI(14) cooling near 62. Weekend news flow was quiet and the hawkish US data backdrop is unchanged; the higher-low chain holds above the 82259 swing low, with the 82514 prior high capping the first rebound.
Support: 82,381.28, 82,259.41, 82,213.80
Resistance: 82,514.13, 82,711.91
What it said to watch
A break below the 82259 swing low ends the higher-low chain from the 80601 weekend low.
Holding the 82381 pullback low, then a close above the 82514 prior high, puts the 82712 session high back in play.
The fib 23.6% at 82214 sits beside Sunday's 82201 high; losing that area exposes the 38.2% retracement near 81906.
London open is roughly 3h away and no USD data is scheduled in the next 8h; Tue housing data is the next macro catalyst.
Sunday's slide bottomed at 80601 at 20:15 UTC. Price then rallied from the weekly open through the Asia session in a higher-low sequence, reclaiming the Sunday high at 82201. A rejection at the 82712 session high has pulled price back to 82411. The rally fib's 23.6% level sits near 82214 and the 38.2% fib near 81906. Quiet weekend newsflow, with the macro backdrop still digesting last week's hot US PPI and retail sales.
Support: 82,259.41, 82,201.47, 81,905.60
Resistance: 82,514.13, 82,711.91
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 82259 swing low breaks the higher-lows trendline and the HL chain
Hold of the 82201 sunday high / 23.6% fib keeps the pullback shallow
Close above the 82514 minor high puts the 82712 session high back in play
Loss of the 38.2% fib at 81906 would undercut the rally from the weekly open
London open in ~3h; no scheduled US data in the next 8h, housing data Tue
03:32 UTC
Uptrend, pulling back from session high · RSI 61 · price 82,479.17
Higher-high/higher-low chain off 80,601 low, testing rising trendline.
The rebound from Sunday's 80,601 low built a higher-high/higher-low chain through the Asia session and topped at the 82,712 session high. Price has since eased back onto the rising trendline near 82,470, with the 82,514 minor high now capping and RSI(14) cooling to about 61. There was no fresh BTC news over the weekend, so the move is chart-driven against the firm-USD backdrop left by last week's hot PPI.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the rising trendline and the 82,259 swing low breaks the higher-low chain
Loss of the 81,922 asian low, near the 38.2% fib of the rebound, would retrace most of the Monday leg
Close above the 82,514 minor high and then the 82,712 session high resumes the higher-high sequence
The Asia session extended the rebound from Sunday's NY-hours low at 80,601, clearing the Sunday high at 82,201 and printing a session high at 82,712 on no fresh news. The higher-low chain from the 81,922 hl pivot is intact. Price is holding just under the session high with RSI(14) near 68, warm but not stretched.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 82,712 session high opens the 83,000 round number
Close below the 82,259 swing low breaks the rising lows and shifts focus to the 82,201 sunday high
Loss of the 81,922 hl pivot puts price back near the 38.2% rebound fib at ~81,906
London open liquidity may test the Asia-session range; no US data until Tue housing releases
03:05 UTC
Uptrend, extending into Asia · RSI 68 · price 82,610.02
Higher-high/higher-low chain off the 80601 swing low, Sunday high reclaimed.
The V-recovery from Sunday's 80601 swing low pushed through the Sunday high at 82201 and printed a fresh session high at 82712 in the Asia session, with a rising trendline of higher lows intact. RSI(14) is near 68, hot but not stretched. There was no fresh BTC news over the quiet weekend, so the move is unfolding against a hawkish-Fed backdrop after last week's hot US PPI.
Support: 82,514.00, 82,259.00, 82,201.00
Resistance: 82,712.00, 83,000.00
What it said to watch
Session high at 82712 is the area to watch for rejection or a break, with the 83000 round number just above
A close back below the 82514 prior high would put the breakout at risk of a false break
A break of the rising trendline and the 82259 swing low would end the higher-low chain
Tue US housing data (12:15–14:00 UTC) is the next macro risk to this read
02:47 UTC
Uptrend, pressing session high · RSI 66 · price 82,461.19
V-shaped recovery from 80,601, higher highs through Asia; Sunday high 82,201 broken.
BTC has recovered roughly 1,900 from Sunday's late low at 80,601. It cleared the Sunday high at 82,201 in the Monday Asia session and printed a session high at 82,514. The 82,259 swing low and a rising support line off the 81,922 Asia low have held pullbacks; RSI(14) near 66 is firm, not stretched, with USD softer on Fed-pause pricing and no fresh crypto headlines.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 82,514 session high extends the higher-high chain toward the 83,000 round number
Loss of the 82,259 swing low and rising support exposes the 82,201 Sunday high as a retest
Close back below the 82,201 Sunday high reads as a false break; below that, the 81,922 Asia low and the fib 38.2% near 81,783 come into view
Strait of Hormuz headlines could trigger a haven USD bid and override this read
02:32 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling at session high · RSI 63 · price 82,309.36
HH/HL chain from 80,601; first dent under 82,315 higher low.
After a thin-weekend low at 80,601, price built a steady HH/HL climb into the Monday Asia session as the USD opened soft on Fed-pause pricing. It cleared the Sunday high at 82,201 and topped at the 82,514 session high. The 02:15 UTC bar rejected that high and slipped under the 82,315 higher low, with RSI(14) cooling to the low 60s.
What it said to watch
A retest that holds the 82,201 sunday high keeps the HH/HL chain intact.
A close below the 81,922 swing low breaks the sequence and exposes the fib 38.2 near 81,783.
An M15 close above the 82,514 session high reopens the 83,000 round number.
No scheduled US data in the next 8h. Strait of Hormuz headlines are the main unscheduled USD risk.
02:17 UTC
Uptrend, pressing session high · RSI 74 · price 82,467.18
HH/HL chain off the 80,601 low, trading above the prior Sunday high.
BTC reversed Sunday's slide from 80,601 with a steady HH/HL climb into the Monday Asia session. It cleared the 82,201 prior high and printed a session high at 82,514, with RSI(14) near 74. The bid has held despite weekend Hormuz risk-off headlines and the hawkish-Fed backdrop.
What it said to watch
Holding above the 82,201 prior high keeps the breakout intact. A close back below it reads as a false break.
Rejection at the 82,514 session high with RSI rolling over from the mid-70s would mark a near-term stall. A clean break puts the 83,000 round number in view.
Loss of the 81,922 pullback low breaks the HL chain. That exposes the 38.2% fib near 81,780 and the 81,625 rally base.
Hormuz/Iran headlines into the London open could materially shift this read.
The reversal leg from Sunday's 80,601 low gathered pace from 22:00 UTC and cleared the 82,201 Sunday high early in the Asia session, with higher lows printed at 82,176 and 82,315. Price is holding just under the 82,471 session high, RSI(14) near 72. With no fresh BTC news, the move runs against a hawkish-Fed backdrop after last week's hot PPI.
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 82,201 sunday high would turn the breakout into a false break
Loss of the 81,920 pullback low breaks the higher-low chain and the rally trendline
Acceptance above the 82,471 session high and 82,500 round number extends the reversal leg
Hormuz/Iran headlines into the London open could shift the risk tone and this read
01:46 UTC
Uptrend, stretched near highs · RSI 80 · price 82,426.23
V-reversal from 80601, HH/HL chain through prior high.
Sunday's slide during NY hours bottomed at 80601 and reversed sharply. The Asia session has extended the rally's HH/HL chain through Sunday's 82201 prior high to an 82438 session high. RSI(14) near 80 is stretched, and the move is running against a hawkish-Fed, firm-USD macro backdrop.
Support: 82,201.47, 81,921.78
Resistance: 82,438.21, 82,500.00
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 82201 prior high puts the breakout in question, with the 81922 swing low as the next pivot.
A break of rising support from 81442 would end the intraday HH/HL chain.
Rejection at the 82438 session high or the 82500 round number with RSI(14) near 80 would mark a short-term stall.
Hormuz/Iran headlines during Asia hours could shift risk tone and this read.
Sunday's 80,601 low has fully reversed in a V-recovery into the Asia session. A higher-high/higher-low chain cleared the 82,201 prior high and printed a session high at 82,428, while RSI(14) near 77 runs hot but not extreme. The bid held through the weekend Hormuz headlines that the USD digest reads as haven-supportive.
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 82,201 prior high would turn the breakout into a false break
Loss of the 81,922 swing low breaks the HH/HL chain and the rising trendline
Acceptance above the 82,428 session high opens the 82,500 round number
Oil and Hormuz headlines through the Asia session could reverse the risk tone
HH/HL chain since the Asia open, holding above the 82,201 prior high.
BTC has rebounded about $1,800 from Sunday's 80,601 low. The Asia session pushed through the 82,201 prior high from Sunday morning to a session high of 82,428, and the higher low at 81,625 and the 81,922 swing low anchor rising support. RSI(14) is near 76 after the run, and the weekend Hormuz haven-USD headlines have not capped the move so far.
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 82,201 prior high would turn the breakout into a false break
Loss of the 81,922 swing low and rising support breaks the higher-low chain; below the 81,625 higher low, the recovery fib 50% near 81,515 comes into view
Acceptance above the 82,428 session high opens the 82,500 psych level
Oil/Hormuz headlines into the London open could firm USD and shift risk tone
HH/HL chain off 80601 low; marginal break of prior high then rejection wick.
BTC reversed Sunday's slide from 80601 in a stepped HH/HL rally into the early Asia session. Price pushed through the 82201 prior high to a 82428 window high before a rejection wick pulled it back onto that level. RSI(14) near 76 is extended, and the bid runs against the digest's haven-USD read on weekend Hormuz escalation.
Support: 82,201.00, 81,922.00, 81,625.00
Resistance: 82,428.00, 82,500.00
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 82201 prior high turns the 82428 push into a false break
Loss of the 81922 swing low and the rising trendline breaks the HL chain, exposing the 38.2% rally fib near 81730 and the 81625 rally base
M15 close above the 82428 window high extends the breakout toward the 82500 round number
Hormuz/oil headlines through the Asia session could materially shift this read
Higher-low chain off 80,601; prior high 82,201 broken.
A V-shaped recovery from Sunday's 80,601 low, set during NY hours, has built a higher-low chain into the Monday Asia session. The 00:30 UTC bar cleared the 82,201 prior high and printed a session high at 82,339. RSI(14) near 79 is stretched but not extreme, and the push runs against the haven-USD tone tied to weekend Hormuz headlines.
What it said to watch
An M15 close back below the 82,201 prior high would turn the breakout into a false break.
Loss of the 81,921 swing low and the rising trendline would break the higher-low chain, with fib 38.2 at 81,675 next.
Acceptance above the 82,339 session high opens the 82,500 round number.
Hormuz/Iran escalation headlines into the week open could materially shift this read via a haven-USD bid.
V-recovery from 80601 Sunday low, HH/HL chain retesting the window high.
Sunday's NY-hours slide to the 80601 Sunday low fully retraced. A stair-step HH/HL rally into the Asia session has price pressing the 82155 session high, just under the 82201 window high, with RSI(14) near 77. The bounce runs against the digest's hawkish-Fed, firm-USD backdrop. Dips have held at the 81922 pullback low within the past hour.
Support: 81,922.00, 81,630.00, 80,601.00
Resistance: 82,155.00, 82,201.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above 82201 window high clears the top of the 24h range
Loss of the 81922 pullback low exposes the 81630 prior range near the 38.2% retracement, then the 50% at ~81378
A break of the recovery line ends the HL sequence from the Sunday low
Monday open headline risk from Hormuz vessel attacks, weekend IMF meetings and Warsh speech read-through could gap this read
Higher-low chain off 80,601, testing the 82,155–82,201 top.
The rebound from the 80,601 Sunday low began at the 22:00 UTC traditional-market reopen. It has retraced the whole afternoon selloff, printing higher lows at 81,442, 81,625 and 81,935 along a rising lows line, and price is now in a tight consolidation just under the 82,155 rebound high and the 82,201 Sunday high. RSI(14) sits near 75 and price is above EMA20 and EMA50, while the macro backdrop stays USD-firm after the hot US PPI and retail sales run.
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 82,201 Sunday high clears the day's range top. Repeated rejection in the 82,155–82,201 band leaves a double test of the high.
Failure to hold the 81,935 pullback low and the rising lows line exposes the 81,625 breakout low and the 38.2% rebound fib near 81,562.
A loss of the 81,442 higher low would break the rebound's higher-low structure.
Hormuz shipping and oil headlines at the Asian open, plus IMF sovereign-debt headlines, carry gap-style risk for this read.
V-shaped recovery from 80601 low; HH/HL chain intact.
The recovery leg from Sunday's 80601 low accelerated into the early Asia session and retraced nearly all of the 82201–80601 drop. Price is now capped just under the 82135 session high and the 82201 24h high, with RSI(14) at 75: hot but not extreme. The rebound runs against the firm-USD, hawkish-Fed backdrop in the macro digest.
Support: 81,625.11, 81,549.40
Resistance: 82,201.47
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 82201 24h high extends the HH chain and clears the Sunday top
Stalling at 82135–82201 followed by a break of the 81934 swing low sets up a lower-high under the 24h high
Loss of the 81625 higher low breaks the HL sequence from 80601 and exposes the 38.2% fib of the recovery leg near 81549
Hormuz/oil headlines at the Asian open and weekend IMF sovereign-debt headlines carry gap-style risk on thin liquidity