London faded inside the Asian range and held above the 81120 Asian low. The NY open then broke above the 82187 Asian high in a roughly 2,100-point leg to the 83305 session high, timed with the soft US housing prints and a softer dollar. The pullback retested the Asian high area at 82162 and held. Higher lows have built since, the latest the 82759 late low, with price pressing the 83064 late high and RSI(14) near 61.
Support: 82,758.86, 82,287.38, 82,187.49
Resistance: 83,063.52, 83,305.26
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 83064 late high puts the 83305 session high back in play
A break of the rising higher-low trendline and the 82759 late low ends the late-session climb
A loss of the 82287 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and reopens the Asian high retest zone near 82187
No scheduled US data in the next 8h; Thursday's jobless claims are the next macro risk
23:32 UTC
Uptrend since NY open, momentum fading · RSI 58 · price 82,798.82
Higher lows from 82287, lower high at 83064 under 83305.
NY open broke the London base near 81200 and the Asian range high at 82187. The leg coincided with the soft US housing prints, and the 83305 ny high was rejected hard. Since then a higher-low sequence from the 82287 pullback low has stalled at the 83064 late high, a lower high under the lower-high line, and price is easing toward the 82729 swing low with RSI(14) near 58 in early Asia trade.
Support: 82,728.89, 82,287.38
Resistance: 83,063.52, 83,305.26
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 82729 swing low exposes the 50% retracement of the 82287–83064 leg near 82675
Close above the 83064 late high clears the lower-high line and reopens the 83305 ny high
Loss of the 82287 pullback low negates the post-NY higher-low structure
No scheduled US data in the next 8h; Thursday's jobless claims are the next macro risk
23:17 UTC
Uptrend, lower high below spike top · RSI 62 · price 82,849.76
Higher lows since NY spike, capped below 83305.
NY broke the London range (81200–81650) and the Asian high at 82187 in a spike to 83305. The move came alongside soft US housing data and a softer USD. The pullback held near the Asian high, around the 50–61.8% of the NY rally, and a higher-low chain (82287, 82729) has since carried price to a late high at 83063, still below the spike high, as Asia opens.
Support: 82,728.89, 82,287.38, 82,187.49
Resistance: 83,305.26
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 82729 higher low breaks the late-NY rising trendline
Loss of the 82287 swing low puts the Asian high retest zone back in play
Close above the 83063 late high opens a retest of the 83305 spike high
23:04 UTC
Uptrend, grinding back toward NY high · RSI 71 · price 82,966.63
Higher lows since NY spike retrace.
Soft US housing data around 14:00 UTC drove a breakout from the 81200 London base to a NY high at 83305. The retrace found demand at 82161, near the 50% fib of the spike. Higher lows since then have lifted price to a late high at 83063 after NY close, with RSI(14) near 71.
Support: 82,728.89, 82,287.38
Resistance: 83,305.26
What it said to watch
Close above the 83305 NY high extends the breakout leg
Failure to hold the 82729 swing low breaks the rising-lows chain toward the 82287 higher low
Rejection at the 83063 late high with RSI rolling from 71 would point to a range below the NY high
US Initial Jobless Claims Thu 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
22:47 UTC
Intraday uptrend, higher lows after NY breakout · RSI 66 · price 82,908.70
Post-spike higher lows; push stalling under 83,050 session high.
BTC broke out of the 81,200–82,200 Asian/London range at the NY open and spiked to the 83,305 day high, coinciding with soft US housing data and a softer dollar. The pullback held the 82,161 spike low near the 50% of the spike fib. Late NY then set a 82,287 swing low and a rising trendline, but the advance is stalling just under the 83,050 session high with RSI(14) ~66.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 83,050 session high opens a retest of the 83,305 day high
Break of the rising trendline and the 82,287 swing low ends the higher-low chain
Loss of the 82,161 spike low puts the 61.8% of the spike fib near 82,005 in play
US-Iran or oil-driven USD swings are the main headline risk into Asia; next scheduled US data is Thu jobless claims
22:32 UTC
Uptrend, higher lows since 19:15 UTC · RSI 66 · price 82,907.70
HL chain pressing the 83050 swing high, below the 83305 day high.
Soft US housing data around 14:00 UTC broke BTC out of its 81200 London base to an 83305 day high, which drew a sharp rejection within the hour. Since the 82287 swing low in late NY hours, a higher-low chain has lifted price back to the 83050 swing high after the NY close, with RSI(14) near 66.
Support: 82,728.89, 82,578.90, 82,287.38
Resistance: 83,305.26
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 83050 swing high opens a retest of the 83305 day high
Close below the 82729 higher low breaks the rising trendline and the HL chain
Loss of the fib 61.8 at 82579 and the 82287 swing low would unwind the post-data recovery
US-Iran headlines moving USD and yields could shift this read in thin early-Asia trade
22:17 UTC
Uptrend, grinding higher after NY close · RSI 71 · price 82,998.60
Higher lows since 19:15 UTC, pressing 83000 below the NY spike high.
Price broke out of the London range near 81200 at the NY open. The move coincided with soft US housing data and ran to an 83305 spike high, which was rejected straight back to the 82162 dump low. Since the 82287 swing low, a higher-low chain has carried price back to 83000 after the NY close. RSI(14) sits near 71 as price approaches the spike close at 83113.
Support: 82,728.89, 82,287.38, 82,161.52
Resistance: 83,113.47, 83,305.26
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 83305 spike high would clear the NY rejection and extend the uptrend
Close below the 82729 pullback low breaks the higher-low trendline
Loss of the 82287 swing low reopens the 82162 dump low and the 50–61.8% fib zone of the NY move
Thursday's jobless claims and Friday's PMIs are the next macro risks for USD-driven moves
Higher lows from 82161 after NY spike; capped under 82907.
Soft US housing data around 14:00 UTC sparked a NY-session spike from 81203 through the Asian range high to the spike high at 83305, then a pullback low at 82161 held near the 50% retracement. Price has since built higher lows, the latest a swing low at 82287, and is pressing the late high at 82907 into the Asia session with RSI(14) firm but not stretched.
Support: 82,287.38
Resistance: 82,906.70, 83,305.26
What it said to watch
M15 close above the late high at 82907 extends the higher-high chain toward the spike high at 83305
Failure to hold the swing low at 82287 breaks the higher-low sequence and exposes the pullback low at 82161
Rejection at 82907 during thin Asia hours would leave a range between 82287 and 82907
21:47 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher lows since NY spike · RSI 62 · price 82,764.85
Post-breakout HH/HL chain capped below the 83,305 spike high.
BTC broke out of the 81,200–81,650 London range in the first hour of NY. It spiked to the 83,305 spike high as the Pending Home Sales miss landed and the USD eased, then was rejected sharply to the 82,161 spike low, a ~54% retrace of the NY breakout fib. Since then the after-close recovery has printed higher lows into an 82,906 swing high, with RSI(14) at 62 and price above EMA20/50.
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 82,287 higher low and the rising trendline undoes the post-spike recovery structure
Close above the 82,906 swing high opens a retest of the 83,305 spike high
Loss of the 82,161 spike low breaks under the 50% level of the NY breakout fib and returns focus to the 81,650 London range top
No scheduled US data in the next 8h; US-Iran headlines moving USD and yields could override the thin late-session structure
Asian range broken higher in NY; higher-low chain from 82287 swing low.
NY broke the 81120–82187 Asian range at 14:00 UTC on the soft housing data, spiking to the 83305 spike high before a rejection back to the 82161 spike low, near the old Asian high and the 50% fib of the NY spike. Since then price has printed higher lows off the 82287 swing low along a rising trendline and is pressing the 82907 evening high after NY close. RSI(14) is near 63.
Support: 82,287.38
Resistance: 82,906.70, 83,305.26
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 82907 evening high opens a retest of the 83305 spike high
Failure to hold the 82287 swing low breaks the rising trendline and the higher-low chain
Loss of the 82161 spike low puts price back toward the 61.8% NY spike fib near 82006
Thin post-NY trade into the Asia session; Thursday's Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC) is the next scheduled US risk
Higher low at 82287 after the NY spike-and-reject from 83305, now through the 82824 prior high.
NY broke the 82187 asian high with a fast rally to the 83305 session high as the dollar eased on soft US housing data. The pullback from that high stopped near 82161, just under the asian high. Rising lows at 82161 and the 82287 higher low have since carried price through the 82824 prior high into late NY, with RSI(14) near 62 and the NY rally fib retrace holding shallow of the 61.8%.
Support: 82,823.79, 82,287.38, 82,187.49
Resistance: 83,000.00, 83,305.26
What it said to watch
Holding above the 82824 prior high keeps the rising lows intact; a slip back below exposes the 82287 higher low
83000 psych and the 83305 session high are the overhead areas to watch for rejection or break
A close below the 82187 asian high puts price back inside the prior Asian range
Thin Asia session liquidity ahead; US Initial Jobless Claims Thu 12:30 UTC is the next scheduled risk
21:07 UTC
Uptrend since NY breakout, momentum rebuilding · RSI 57 · price 82,740.88
Higher low at 82287 after spike reversal, pressing 82824 swing high.
NY session broke out of the 81200–82190 overnight range as soft US housing data landed around 14:00 UTC, spiking to the 83305 ny high before a sharp reversal to the 82162 spike low, near the 50% retrace of the breakout leg. Price has since printed a higher low at 82287 and is pressing the 82824 swing high late in NY hours, with RSI(14) neutral near 57.
Support: 82,287.38, 82,161.52
Resistance: 82,823.79, 83,305.26
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 82824 swing high extends the higher-low sequence and opens the path back to the 83305 ny high
Failure to hold the 82287 higher low exposes the 82162 spike low and the 50% retrace of the breakout leg
US-Iran deal headlines and moves in the 10y yield near 5.12% are the main USD swing factor ahead of Thursday's jobless claims
20:47 UTC
Uptrend after NY breakout, consolidating · RSI 54 · price 82,677.95
BTC broke out of the 81200–81650 London range at the NY open. The move coincided with soft US housing data and a softer USD, and price spiked to 83305 before retracing to the 82162 spike low, near the 50–61.8% fib of the NY breakout. Since then the swing low at 82287 marked a higher low, and late in the NY session price is grinding back toward the 82824 swing high with RSI(14) neutral near 54.
Support: 82,287.38, 82,161.52
Resistance: 82,823.79, 83,305.26
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 82824 swing high extends the higher-low chain and reopens the 83305 spike high
Failure to hold the 82287 swing low breaks the rising higher-lows line and exposes the 82162 spike low
Loss of 82162 puts price back below the 61.8% retracement of the NY breakout, near 82000
No US data is due in the next 8h; the Asia session hands over a thinner tape before Thursday's jobless claims
NY spike to 83,305 half-retraced; higher low at 82,287 inside 82,160–82,825 range.
BTC broke above the Asian range during NY hours and spiked from the 81,200 London low to an 83,305 session high as soft US housing data eased hawkish-Fed pressure, then gave back half the move to the 82,162 spike low. Late NY has printed a higher low at 82,287 on rising lows and is pressing the 82,600 range cap. RSI(14) is neutral near 49.
What it said to watch
Close above the 82,600 range cap and the 82,824 lower high reopens the 83,305 session high
Loss of the 82,287 higher low breaks the rising lows; below the 82,162 spike low the 61.8% fib near 82,006 is next
Thin late-NY to Asia session liquidity; US-Iran deal headlines moving USD and yields could jolt this range
20:17 UTC
Post-breakout consolidation above Asian range · RSI 57 · price 82,511.13
NY-open impulse to 83305, now compressing between lower highs and higher lows.
BTC sat inside the 81120–82187 Asian range through London, then broke out at the NY open as soft US housing data eased hawkish-Fed pressure. The rally topped at the 83305 session high and reversed sharply to the 82161 spike low near the 50% fib. Late NY trade is compressing between a lower high at 82824 and a higher swing low at 82287, with price at the 38.2% fib around 82500.
Support: 82,287.38
Resistance: 82,823.79, 83,305.26
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 82287 swing low breaks the higher-low sequence and exposes the 82161 spike low / 50% fib
Close above the 82824 lower high reopens the 83305 session high
US-Iran deal headlines moving USD and yields could shift this read in thin late-session trade
NY breakout above Asian range, retested, now ranging 82287–82824 with lower highs.
NY broke the Asian high at 82187 with a 13:30–14:45 UTC surge from the 81200 base to the 83305 ny high, as soft US housing data and a weaker dollar eased hawkish pressure. The 15:00 reversal retested the Asian high from above, and price has since consolidated between the 82287 swing low and the 82824 swing high, near the 38.2% fib with RSI(14) neutral around 49.
Support: 82,287.38, 82,187.49, 82,005.70
Resistance: 82,560.08, 82,823.79, 83,305.26
What it said to watch
A close below the 82287 swing low exposes the asian high at 82187 and the fib 61.8 near 82006
Loss of 82006 (fib 61.8) would undermine the breakout read and reopen the 81200 base
A close above the 82560 lower high, then the 82824 swing high, opens the path back to the 83305 ny high
No scheduled USD events in the next 8h; Thursday's jobless claims are the next catalyst
Lower high under NY spike high, higher lows since rejection.
Soft US housing data and a weaker USD drove a breakout from the 81,200–82,190 overnight range early in NY hours. The spike stalled at the 83,305 NY high, and a sharp rejection followed. Late in the NY session, price is coiling near the 38.2% fib at 82,500, between a lower high at 82,824 and rising lows, the latest a swing low at 82,287. RSI(14) is neutral at 55.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 82,824 lower high reopens a test of the 83,305 NY high
Failure to hold the 82,287 swing low breaks the rising-lows line and exposes the asia high near 82,187 and the 50% fib
No US data due in the next 8h; Thursday jobless claims are the next scheduled macro risk
BTC broke out of the 81,200–81,650 London range and the Asian high when soft US housing data hit at 14:00 UTC. It spiked to the 83,305 session high, then a full-bar rejection dropped it back to the 82,161 spike low. Late in the NY session, bars have printed lower highs since 82,824 and are now pressing the 82,240 range low, which sits just above the 50% fib of the spike, with RSI(14) near 45.
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 82,240 range low and the 82,161 spike low would retrace more than half the data spike and expose the 61.8% fib near 82,006
Recovery above the 82,598 range top and the 82,824 lower high breaks the late-NY lower-high sequence and puts the 83,305 session high back in play
DXY reclaiming 102.00 would undercut the soft-data bounce; Thursday 12:30 UTC jobless claims are the next scheduled US risk
Range 82240–82820 above Asian high, lower high in place.
NY broke the 81120–82187 Asian range with a 13:00–13:45 UTC spike to the 83305 NY high as soft US housing data eased USD, but the 14:00 bar rejected back to 82161. Late NY now sits in an 82240–82820 range with a lower high at 82823. Price at 82440 is between the 38.2% and 50% retracement of the NY leg, with RSI(14) near 48.
Support: 82,361.30, 82,187.49, 82,005.70
Resistance: 83,305.26
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 82361 swing low exposes the 82187 Asian high and the 50% fib near 82254
A break below the Asian high opens the 61.8% fib at 82006
Close back above the 82823 lower high reopens the 83305 NY high
No US data in the next 8h; Thu 12:30 UTC jobless claims is the next scheduled USD risk
19:04 UTC
NY up-break, now fading below highs · RSI 52 · price 82,452.20
Post-breakout range 82160–82820, lower high under the 83305 spike high.
NY session broke the overnight 81120–82190 range on the soft US housing data, spiking to the 83305 spike high before a single-bar rejection to the 82160 pullback low. Since then a lower high at 82824 has formed. Price is drifting just under the fib 38.2 near 82500 into late NY, with RSI(14) neutral near 52.
Support: 82,361.00, 82,160.00, 82,006.00
Resistance: 82,824.00, 83,305.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 82361 swing low and the 82160 pullback low exposes the fib 61.8 at 82006, the old range top
Close above the 82824 lower high breaks the descending trendline and reopens the 83305 spike high
No US data in the next 8h; next scheduled risk is Thu 12:30 UTC jobless claims, with the DXY sub-102.00 drift the main external driver
NY spike faded; 82240–82820 range with a lower high at 82824.
NY session broke the Asian high at 82187 on soft US housing data, running from the London low near 81200 to an 83305 NY high before a full-bar fade. Since then price has been ranging 82240–82820, with a rejection at the 82824 swing high. It now sits on EMA20 between the 38.2% and 50% retracement of the spike, just above the range floor.
Support: 82,240.00, 82,187.00, 82,006.00
Resistance: 82,824.00, 83,305.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 82240 range floor (≈50% fib) exposes the Asian high at 82187 and the fib 61.8 at 82006
Close above the 82824 swing high reopens the 83305 NY high
DXY reclaiming 102.00 would undercut the post-data relief bid
Higher lows under a lower high after the NY spike.
Soft US housing data around 14:00 UTC drove a breakout from the 81200–82187 Asian/London range to an 83305 NY high, followed by a sharp pullback to the 82160 spike low near the Asian high and the 50% fib. Since then, higher lows at 82240 and 82440 have formed beneath a lower high at 82824, compressing after London close with RSI(14) near 57.
Support: 82,440.00, 82,160.00
Resistance: 82,824.00, 83,305.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 82440 higher low breaks the higher-lows trendline and exposes the 82160 spike low
Loss of the 82160 spike low puts price back inside the prior Asian range and the 61.8% fib near 82005
M15 close above the 82824 lower high reopens the 83305 NY high
USD back below 102.00 on DXY is the backdrop; a USD rebound would test the breakout
NY breakout above the 82,185 prior high; retest held, now ranging 82,240–82,824.
The soft US housing data (pending home sales -7.3% vs -0.5% f/c) drove a NY-open breakout through the 82,185 prior high and the Asian range top to an 83,305 spike high. A 15:00 UTC flush retested that prior high at 82,160 and held. Price has since built a range from the 82,240 range floor, with the 82,824 swing high capping. At 82,587 after London close, price sits near the 38.2% of the NY rally, with RSI(14) ~61.
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 82,240 range floor exposes the 82,165 prior high and the 50–61.8% zone of the NY rally fib
A close above the 82,824 swing high reopens the 83,305 spike high
Losing the 82,165 prior high would turn the NY breakout into a false break
No US data before Thursday's jobless claims; DXY around 102.00 and US-Iran headlines are the main swing factors for this read
18:04 UTC
Intraday uptrend after NY breakout, grinding higher · RSI 56 · price 82,681.94
Higher lows above Asian range high; spike high 83305 still capping.
BTC held the 81200 area through London, then broke above the Asian high in the first hour of NY. The move came as the housing misses and US-Iran headlines softened the USD, and price spiked to 83305. The 15:00 UTC flush retested the old Asian high at the 82161 pullback low, and price has since printed higher lows near 82440, with the recent high at 82824 the nearest cap.
Support: 82,440.00, 82,161.00
Resistance: 82,824.00, 83,305.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 82824 recent high reopens the 83305 spike high
Loss of the 82440 higher low breaks the rising-lows trendline
Failure to hold the 82161 pullback low (61.8% of the post-data rally) puts price back inside the Asian range
Unconfirmed US-Iran headlines remain live USD tail risk after London close
NY open broke out of the London range (81,200–81,650) to an 83,305 session high, then a sharp rejection retested the overnight 82,185 prior highs, putting in the retest low near the 50–61.8% fib. A chain of higher lows since has price pressing the 82,779 swing high after London close, with soft USD on US-Iran deal headlines and weak housing data in the background.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 82,779 swing high and the 83,000 round number reopens the 83,305 session high
Break of the 82,587 swing low and the higher lows line puts the 82,161 retest low back in focus
Failure to hold the retest low returns price toward the 81,650 range top and 81,203 range low
Conflicting US-Iran headlines can swing USD and yields at any time and shift this read
17:32 UTC
Intraday uptrend, rebuilding after NY spike · RSI 61 · price 82,666.96
Higher lows above retested Asian high.
NY broke the Asian high at 82187 as the soft US housing data hit the dollar, running to a 83305 NY high before the 15:00 bar gave back most of the move. That drop retested the Asian high (82161 wick, near the 50–61.8% fib). Price has since built higher lows from 82240 and is pressing the 82779 pivot high late in the NY session, RSI(14) near 61.
Support: 82,240.00, 82,187.00
Resistance: 82,779.00, 83,305.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 82779 pivot high reopens 83113–83305 (ny high)
Loss of the 82240 higher low exposes the 82187 asian high retest zone
A close back below 82187 turns the NY breakout into a false break
No US data in the next 8h; Thursday's jobless claims are the next scheduled USD risk
Asian range breakout, retest held, higher lows in late NY.
BTC broke out of the 81,120–82,190 Asian range in the first hour of NY as weak US housing data hit the dollar. It ran to an 83,305 spike high, then a sharp rejection took it to an 82,161 pullback low, just above the old Asian high and near the 50% fib. Late NY is printing higher lows, the latest at 82,386, and price is pressing the 82,779 swing high with RSI(14) at 61.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 82,779 swing high reopens the 83,305 spike high
Loss of the 82,386 higher low breaks the late-NY rebuild
Break below the 82,161 pullback low and the 61.8% fib (~82,006) returns price to the Asian range
No US data due in the next 8h; Thu jobless claims and Fri PMIs are the next macro tests
NY breakout above the Asian range, retest held, now building a range above 82240.
The 81200–82190 Asia/London range broke higher at 14:00 UTC as the US housing misses and a slipping USD landed. The spike topped at the 83305 NY high, and the pullback retested the 82165 Asian high. Late NY, price is holding above the 82240 range floor and the fib 38.2 near 82500 and pressing the 82745 range top, with RSI(14) near 60.
Support: 82,240.00, 82,165.00
Resistance: 82,745.00, 83,305.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 82745 range top opens a retest of the 83305 NY high
Failure to hold the 82240 range floor and the 82165 Asian high would void the breakout-retest read
A slip back under the fib 38.2 at 82500 returns price to the lower half of the post-spike range
No US data in the next 8h; Thu jobless claims and Fri PMIs are the next macro tests for the USD-driven move
16:47 UTC
Impulsive NY breakout, now consolidating · RSI 60 · price 82,449.20
Post-spike range 82,240–82,600 above London base.
The 14:00 UTC miss in US housing data sparked a NY-session breakout from the 81,200–81,650 London range to an 83,305 session high. The 15:00 bar then gave back about half the move. Price is now compressing between the 82,240 range low and the 82,600 range high, holding the 38.2–50% zone of the breakout fib with RSI(14) near 60.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 82,240 range low exposes the 61.8% fib near 82,006
Close above the 82,600 range high reopens the 83,305 session high
A return below the 81,659 london high would negate the NY breakout
16:32 UTC
Post-breakout consolidation above Asian high · RSI 61 · price 82,447.20
NY breakout from London base, spike rejected, now ranging 82240–82600.
NY session lifted off the 81,205 London lows through the 82,187 Asian high to an 83,305 session high as weak US housing data (Pending Home Sales -7.3%) softened the USD. A ~1,000-point rejection bar at 15:00 UTC retested the Asian high. Price has since held a 82,240–82,600 range after London close, with the range low sitting on the 50% retrace of the NY breakout leg.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 82,600 range high reopens the 83,305 session high
Close back below the 82,187 Asian high turns the breakout into a false break and exposes the 81,205 London lows
Loss of the 82,240 range low breaks the 50% retrace of the NY breakout leg, leaving the 61.8% near 82,006 next
No scheduled US data in the next 8h. Thursday jobless claims and Friday PMIs are the next macro tests
NY breakout above prior high, spike rejected, retest holding.
BTC broke out of its overnight 81,200–82,190 range in the first hours of NY as soft US housing data weighed on the dollar, running to a spike high at 83,305 before a sharp rejection. The pullback held the prior high at 82,190, between the 50% and 61.8% fib of the spike. Since London close, price has compressed under a range top near 82,600 with RSI(14) near 61.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 82,600 range top opens a retest of the 83,305 spike high
Failure to hold the 82,190 prior high turns the breakout into a false break and exposes the London low at 81,200
A firmer USD rebound off sub-102.00 DXY would pressure the post-housing-data bid
16:04 UTC
NY breakout higher, consolidating after spike reversal · RSI 61 · price 82,533.11
Asian/London range 81120–82187 broken in NY; spike to 83305 fully faded to the range top, now basing above it.
NY session broke the 81120–82187 Asian/London range in a sharp leg to the 83305 spike high as USD softened on weak US housing data. The 15:00 UTC bar wiped most of that move but held at the prior high near 82185, and the 50% fib of the 81200 day low to 83305 move has since contained three bars, with price pressing the 82590 rebound high.
Support: 82,185.00, 81,200.00
Resistance: 82,590.00, 83,305.00
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 82185 prior high returns price to the old range and exposes the 81200 day low
Close above the 82590 rebound high reopens the 83305 spike high
London close at 16:30 UTC may thin liquidity and widen intrabar swings
DXY reclaiming 102.00 would undercut the USD-softness driver behind the breakout
15:47 UTC
NY breakout, sharp rejection, holding mid-retrace · price 82,300.36
Asian high broken at NY open, now retested from above.
No narrative produced.
Support: 82,187.49, 82,005.80, 81,202.57
Resistance: 82,588.05, 83,305.26
15:32 UTC
NY up-break, momentum faded after rejection · RSI 59 · price 82,438.21
Break above Asian range high, sharp pullback retesting the break level.
BTC held a day low near 81202 through London, then broke out in early NY hours as the dollar slipped on soft US housing data. The move reached a session high at 83305 before a single bar handed back roughly 1000 points to retest the asian high at 82187. The retest held near the 50% fib, and price is now drifting back toward the 82536 bounce high.
Support: 82,187.00, 81,202.00
Resistance: 82,536.00, 83,305.00
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the asian high at 82187 turns the breakout into a false break and reopens the 81202 day low
Close above the 82536 bounce high puts the 83305 session high back in view
Further USD weakness below DXY 102.00 has been the tailwind; a dollar reversal during NY hours would test the 50% fib hold
NY breakout above Asian range, now retesting the broken Asian high.
After London held a base near the 81,200 london low, the NY open broke above the Asian high (82,187) and cleared 83,000 as the USD sagged on the US housing misses. The move ran to an 83,305 session high, but the 15:00 UTC bar gave back about $1,000. Price now sits near the 50% retrace, just above the asian high, with RSI(14) cooled to the high 50s.
What it said to watch
Holding the asian high at 82,187 keeps the breakout-retest read intact
A close below fib 61.8 at 82,006 would turn the NY move into a false break back inside the Asian range
Reclaiming fib 38.2 at 82,502 reopens the round number at 83,000 and the session high at 83,305
Breaking the london low at 81,203 would erase the whole NY breakout
DXY reclaiming 102.00 would undercut the USD-softness driver behind the rally
NY breakout above the Asian range, higher lows at 82729 and 82877 under the 83305 session high.
At the NY open, price swept the London low at 81202, then ran about 2,100 dollars through the asian high at 82187 and the prior high at 82465. The 14:00 UTC pending home sales miss hit USD and drove the move. Price is now holding a tight band between the 82729 pullback low and the 83305 session high, with RSI(14) at about 71 and cooling off the impulse.
Support: 82,728.89, 82,465.18, 82,187.49
Resistance: 83,305.26, 83,500.00
What it said to watch
A M15 close below the 82729 pullback low opens a retrace of the NY impulse fib toward the 82465 prior high.
Loss of the asian high at 82187, near the 50% of the NY impulse fib, would undo most of the breakout.
A break above the 83305 session high exposes the 83500 round number.
A USD reclaim of DXY 102.00 would undercut the housing-miss move that drove this leg.
14:47 UTC
Sharp uptrend off NY open, momentum pausing · RSI 71 · price 83,025.57
Range break higher; tight consolidation below session high.
The NY open broke the 81,200–82,200 Asian/London range in a roughly $2,000 leg. The 14:00 UTC bar did most of the work, clearing the prior high at 82,465 and printing a session high at 83,244, against a softer US housing/ADP backdrop. Price is now consolidating just above 83,000 with RSI(14) near 71. The fib 38.2% of the breakout leg sits on that prior high.
What it said to watch
Holding the 82,729 pullback low keeps the post-breakout higher-low intact
A loss of the pullback low exposes the prior high / fib 38.2% retest zone at 82,465
An M15 close back below the 82,187 Asian high would mark the move as a false break
An M15 close above the 83,244 session high extends the breakout leg
The Pending Home Sales actual is not yet in the feed; a deep miss would extend the soft-housing theme
14:32 UTC
Impulsive uptrend off NY open, RSI warm · RSI 71 · price 82,960.64
Range break from London base; first pullback held above prior high.
The NY open impulse broke out of the 81200–81650 London base, cleared the 82187 Asian high and the 82465 prior high, and printed an 83244 session high as soft US housing data and a weaker USD lifted risk. The first pullback low at 82729 held, RSI(14) is near 71, and price sits just under the 83000 round number.
Support: 82,728.89, 82,465.18, 82,187.49
Resistance: 83,000.00, 83,244.33
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 82465 prior high (38.2% of the NY impulse fib) undercuts the breakout
Loss of the 82187 asian high would mark a false break of the session range
Close above the 83000 round number and the 83244 session high extends the impulse
Pending Home Sales (14:00 UTC) actual not yet in feed; a deep miss would add to the soft-USD read
24h range break; Asian and prior highs cleared in the first hour of NY.
NY open dipped to the 81203 NY low under the London lows, then three wide bars ran through the asian high at 82187 and the prior high at 82465 into the 14:00 UTC Pending Home Sales window, against soft housing/ADP data and a softer dollar. Price now sits near the 83244 session high with RSI(14) about 76, and ATR is inflated by the roughly $2,000 impulse.
Support: 82,465.18, 82,187.49, 81,202.57
Resistance: 83,244.33
What it said to watch
Holding the 82465 prior high on any pullback keeps the range break intact
A return below the 82187 asian high, near the 50% fib of the NY leg, would mark a false break
Rejection at the 83244 session high would leave the impulse capped for now
Pending Home Sales actual is not yet in the feed; a confirmed deep miss would add to the soft-data backdrop behind the move
London lower-high sequence broken; NY impulse off London low into Asian range top.
In the first hour of NY, price swept the London low at 81,202, then rallied about $850 through the London high at 81,655 and the London downtrend line. It is now pressing toward the 82,187 Asian high with RSI(14) near 64, not stretched. The bid lines up with a softer US tape after the Housing Starts miss and cooling ADP average, which eased hike pressure at the margin.
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the London high at 81,655 would turn the NY breakout into a false break
50% of the NY impulse fib at ~81,630 sits on the London high; holding there keeps the higher-low read intact
Clearance of the Asian high at 82,187 exposes the prior high at 82,465 from yesterday's US session
Loss of the London low at 81,202 and the Asian low at 81,120 would resume the lower-low sequence
Pending Home Sales at 14:00 UTC (f/c -0.5%) lands in the current bar and could extend or fade the move
Lower highs off the 82187 Asia high; flat lows at 81200–81230; early-NY bounce pressing the 81660 range top.
London held BTC in an 81200–81660 range after the slide from the 82187 Asia high, with the triple low at 81200–81230 holding. The 13:15 UTC bar swept to 81202, then reversed into early NY and is now pressing the range top near the 38.2–50% retrace, as the soft Housing Starts miss and the cooler ADP read ease hike fears at the margin.
Support: 81,450.00, 81,205.00, 81,120.00
Resistance: 81,660.00, 81,800.00, 82,187.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 81660 range top opens the 81800 swing high, near the 61.8% retrace
Loss of the ema20 near 81450 puts the 81205 triple low back in play; a break there exposes the 81120 asia low
Pending Home Sales at 14:00 UTC (f/c -0.5%) lands within the next bar and could shift this read
13:32 UTC
Intraday downtrend, flattening into a base · RSI 45 · price 81,360.40
Lower highs from the Asian high, flat base near 81216–81280.
Price has printed lower highs since the 82187 Asian high, with London and early NY holding a base just above the 81216 session low. The soft Housing Starts and ADP prints lifted price to 81655 (data high), between the 38.2% and 50% fib of the drop, but the move faded back to 81360. RSI(14) is neutral near 45.
Support: 81,119.67
Resistance: 81,655.08, 81,799.92
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 81655 data high breaks the lower-high trendline, with the 81800 lower high next
Failure to hold the 81216 session low exposes the 81120 asian low
Pending Home Sales at 14:00 UTC (f/c -0.5%) could shift this read inside the next two bars
13:17 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since Asia · RSI 46 · price 81,346.42
Lower highs from 82187; London range 81216–81655 above Asian low.
The Asia high at 82187 capped the rebound, and price has ground lower since, holding a 81216–81655 London band above the 81120 Asian low. The soft Housing Starts and ADP prints at 12:15 UTC lifted price to a 81655 data high, but that spike was rejected back toward the session low within the hour.
Support: 81,119.67
Resistance: 81,655.08, 81,799.92, 82,187.49
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 81216 session low exposes the 81120 Asian low
A recovery above the 81655 data high breaks the lower-highs line, with the 81800 swing high next
Pending Home Sales at 14:00 UTC falls in the first hours of NY and could extend the range in either direction
A move back to the 82187 asia high would negate the intraday lower-highs sequence
13:05 UTC
Downtrend, stalling in a range · RSI 53 · price 81,461.29
Lower highs from the 82187 Asia high; London range 81230–81550 holding.
London ground sideways in an 81230–81550 band, and the noon dip swept it to a fresh session low at 81216. The 12:15 UTC US data (Housing Starts miss, softer ADP) lifted price to an ny high at 81655. That push above the london high failed between the 38.2% and 50% fib of the Asia drop, leaving price back inside the range at 81461 with the lower highs sequence intact.
Support: 81,119.67
Resistance: 81,655.08
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 81655 ny high breaks the lower highs line and exposes the 50% fib near 81700
Failure to hold the 81216 session low reopens the 81120 asia low
Pending Home Sales at 14:00 UTC could extend the soft-growth read and move price out of the London range
Lower highs from Asian high; London range 81217–81550, NY probing top.
Lower highs since the 82187 Asian high, with London holding a flat 81217–81550 range above the 81120 Asian low. Early NY has lifted price to the 38.2% fib near 81590 and into the EMA50, with the NY high at 81655 so far. Macro flow is thin, with no BTC news and only medium-tier US housing data today.
Support: 81,217.00, 81,120.00
Resistance: 81,655.00, 81,800.00, 82,187.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 81655 ny high and the 38.2% fib reopens the 81800 swing high (61.8%)
Failure back inside the range and a loss of the 81217 london low exposes the 81120 asian low
Recovery of the 82187 asian high would break the lower-high sequence
Pending Home Sales at 14:00 UTC, a medium-tier USD input, could jolt the NY session range
12:31 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 51 · price 81,423.33
Lower highs from 82187, flat lows 81216–81280.
Lower highs from the 82187 asian high have pressed BTC into a tight 81216–81573 band through London. Price is still inside the Asian range. The 12:15 bounce off the 81216 session low stalled at the 81573 swing high, just under the 38.2% fib. Price is hugging EMA20 ahead of the NY open, with no fresh BTC news against a hawkish-Fed macro backdrop.
Support: 81,119.67
Resistance: 81,573.17, 81,799.92, 82,187.49
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 81573 swing high and descending resistance shifts the read toward a retest of the 81800 lower high
Loss of the 81216 session low exposes the 81120 asian low and breaks the flat base
Housing Starts and Building Permits at 12:30 UTC and Pending Home Sales at 14:00 UTC; any USD and yield spillover could break the band
Lower highs from 82,187 Asian peak; London range 81,230–81,550 now breaking at the floor.
London has ground lower in a series of lower highs off the 81,800 swing high, with price tagging a fresh session low at 81,216 late in London and ahead of the NY open. Price sits in the lower half of the Asian range, with the asian low at 81,120 the next reference below. RSI(14) near 41 is not stretched, and the firm-USD macro backdrop offers no BTC-specific driver.
What it said to watch
Sustained trade below the 81,216 session low exposes the 81,120 asian low
Recovery above the 81,550 range top breaks the lower-highs sequence
Close above the 81,800 swing high invalidates the intraday downtrend read
US Housing Starts and Building Permits at 12:30 UTC, then the NY open, could widen the range
Lower highs from 82187 Asian high; London compressing in a 81230–81550 band.
BTC has printed lower highs since the 82,187 Asian high and spent the London session compressing in a 81,230–81,550 band. Price sits below EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI(14) near 45, only about 18% into the fib of the Asian high to London low leg. The backdrop is a hawkish-Fed, firm-yield headwind with no BTC-specific driver; the NY open is next.
What it said to watch
A close below the 81,335 micro low and the 81,230 London low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 81,120 Asian low
A close above the 81,550 London high breaks the lower-highs line; the 81,800 lower high and the 50% fib near 81,710 sit above
US Housing Starts and Building Permits at 12:30 UTC, then Pending Home Sales at 14:00 UTC, could jolt the NY open via USD and yields
11:47 UTC
Downtrend from Asian high, now flattening · RSI 46 · price 81,410.35
Lower highs compressing into a tight 81,230–81,550 London range.
Lower highs from the 82,187 Asian high (81,800, then 81,551) have stalled into an 81,230–81,550 range through late London. Price sits below both EMAs and the 23.6% fib with RSI(14) near 46. The london low has held above the 81,120 asian low on a firm-USD macro backdrop.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 81,550 range top breaks the lower-high sequence and opens the 81,800 lower high
Failure to hold the 81,230 london low exposes the 81,120 asian low
US Housing Starts and Building Permits at 12:30 UTC, around the NY open, could break the range
A move back above 81,800 would bring the 82,187 asian high and the 38.2–50% fib zone (81,600–81,710) into play
11:32 UTC
Downtrend, compressing · RSI 47 · price 81,403.35
Lower highs since Asian high, tight London range.
BTC has printed lower highs since the 82187 Asian high, and the London session is compressing in a 81230–81550 box above the 81120 Asian low. Price sits below both EMAs and under the 23.6% fib of the drop from the Asian high, with a firmer USD on the oil-driven rebound capping recoveries.
Support: 81,119.67
Resistance: 81,551.19, 81,799.92, 82,187.49
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 81551 london high and the lower-highs trendline breaks the descending sequence; the next lower high is 81800
Failure to hold the 81230 london low exposes the 81120 asian low swept in Asia
A recovery through the 50% fib near 81710 would put the 82187 asian high back in view
US ADP 4-wk avg (12:15 UTC) and housing data (12:30 UTC) near NY open could break the London range
Lower highs from 82187 Asian high; London range 81230–81551 inside Asian range.
Since the 82187 Asian high, London has printed lower highs and compressed into an 81230–81551 band. Price sits inside the Asian range (81120–82187), capped by a descending trendline and just under EMA20, with RSI(14) neutral near 47. The backdrop is still the residual hawkish US data impulse from last week's hot PPI and retail sales.
Support: 81,119.67
Resistance: 81,551.19, 81,799.92, 82,187.49
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 81551 london high and the descending trendline breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 81800 swing high in view, near the 61.8% fib of the drop from the Asian high.
Failure to hold the 81230 london low exposes the 81120 asian low, the window low.
US ADP 4-wk avg, housing starts and pending home sales (12:15–14:00 UTC) land around the NY open and could break the London range.
Reclaim of the 82187 asian high would invalidate the intraday downtrend read.
Lower highs from Asian high, compressing above session low.
BTC has stepped lower through London from the 82187 asian high, printing a 81230 session low before a shallow bounce capped at the 81550 swing high. Price is compressing just under EMA20 with RSI(14) near 46, against a firm dollar tone left over from last week's hot US data, and the 81120 asian low is still intact.
Support: 81,119.67
Resistance: 81,799.92, 82,187.49
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 81550 swing high and the 38.2% fib near 81600 breaks the lower-highs sequence, with the 81800 prior high next
Failure to hold the 81230 session low exposes the 81120 asian low
US ADP 4-wk avg and housing data (12:15–14:00 UTC) around the NY open could materially shift this read
10:47 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since the Asian high · RSI 41 · price 81,403.35
Lower highs from 82187; London holding a 81230–81551 band.
London has extended the run of lower highs off the 82187 asian high, printing a session low at 81230 before a bounce to the 81551 swing high stalled below the 38.2% retrace. Price sits below EMA20 and EMA50 in the lower half of the Asian range, RSI(14) near 41. Last week's hot US PPI and retail sales still frame the macro backdrop.
Support: 81,119.67
Resistance: 81,551.19, 81,799.92, 82,187.49
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 81230 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 81120 asian low
Close above the 81551 swing high and the lower-highs trendline breaks the sequence; 81800 lower high is next
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and housing starts/permits (12:30 UTC) around the NY open could jolt the 81230–81551 band
Lower highs from the 82,187 Asian high; London range 81,230–81,770 sits above the Asian low.
Mid-London, BTC has extended the lower-high sequence from the 82,187 Asian high and printed a 81,230 London low that holds above the 81,120 Asian low. Price is trading below EMA20 inside the 61.8–78.6% zone of the Asian bounce fib, RSI(14) near 41. Residual USD firmness after last week's hot PPI keeps the tone heavy.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 81,550 lower high and the descending lower-highs trendline breaks the sequence; the 81,800 swing high is next above
Failure to hold the 81,230 London low exposes the 81,120 Asian low and the base of the Asian bounce fib
US ADP 4-wk avg (12:15 UTC) and housing data (12:30 UTC) ahead of NY open could shift USD tone and this read
Lower highs below Asian high; London in 81230–81530 range.
BTC rolled over from the 82187 Asian high. Lower highs printed at the 81800 swing high and the 81530 range top, while the 81120 Asian low held. London has compressed between 81230 and 81530, and the latest bar is testing the range top, EMA20 (~81515) and the 23.6% retrace of the Asian high selloff. RSI(14) sits at 46 and ATR runs near $160; last week's hot US data keeps the dollar backdrop firm.
Support: 81,119.67
Resistance: 81,799.92, 82,187.49
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 81530 range top, then the 81800 swing high, breaks the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 81230 london low exposes the 81120 asian low
US ADP/housing data 12:15–14:00 UTC around NY open could break the London range
Lower highs from 82187 Asian high into London; session low 81230 above Asian low.
Mid-London, BTC has ground lower from the 82187 Asian high. A chain of lower highs, the latest at 81522, led into a session low at 81230, while the 81120 Asian low has held. RSI(14) is near 34 and price is pressing the descending trendline, with thin crypto news leaving residual hawkish US data as the backdrop.
Support: 81,119.67
Resistance: 81,522.22, 81,799.92, 82,187.49
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 81522 lower high breaks the descending trendline and the lower-high chain
Failure to hold the 81230 session low exposes the 81120 Asian low
Reclaim of the 81800 swing high opens a retest of the 82187 Asian high
ADP 12:15 UTC and housing data 12:30 UTC could shift this read into the NY open
09:47 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs through London · RSI 31 · price 81,303.46
Lower highs and lower lows since the Asian high, holding above the Asian low.
Early London: price has bled roughly 900 from the 82,187 Asian high. It printed a London high at 81,800, a lower high at 81,522 and a fresh session low at 81,266, with RSI(14) near 31. The firm-USD backdrop from last week's hot PPI and retail sales still weighs. The 81,120 Asian low is the next reference below.
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 81,522 lower high breaks the London lower-high chain and puts the 81,800 London high back in view
Failure to hold the 81,266 session low exposes the 81,120 Asian low; a break there leaves the Asian range, with the 81,000 round number next
US ADP and housing data from 12:15 UTC, around the NY open, could shift USD tone and this read
Lower highs from the Asian high, compressing above the London low.
BTC has slid through the London session from the 82,187 Asian high, printing lower highs at the 81,800 swing high and the 81,522 lower high. Price is now compressing just above the 81,281 London low, with RSI(14) near 39 and price below both EMAs. No fresh BTC catalyst: the digest attributes the pressure to the lingering hawkish US data impulse.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 81,281 London low exposes the 81,120 Asian low and the bottom of the overnight range
Reclaim of the 81,522 lower high, then the 81,800 swing high (near the 61.8% fib), breaks the lower-high chain
US housing data and ADP 12:15–14:00 UTC could shift USD tone and this read during NY hours
09:17 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since Asia · RSI 34 · price 81,300.47
Lower-high chain from 82,187 Asian high, lows flattening near 81,281.
London has extended the slide from the 82,187 Asian high, printing lower highs at 81,800 and 81,520 and now pressing the 81,281 session low. Price has given back about 80% of the Asian rally off 81,120. RSI(14) is near 34 and not oversold, with no BTC-specific catalyst and the macro read still the hot mid-October US data.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 81,281 session low exposes the 81,120 Asian low
M15 close above the 81,520 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline
Reclaim of the 81,800 swing high would neutralise the London downtrend; the asian high at 82,187 caps above
US ADP and housing data 12:15–14:00 UTC, around the NY open, could materially shift this read
09:05 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since Asia · RSI 38 · price 81,489.26
Lower-high chain from 82,187, basing at 81,281–81,310 inside the Asian range.
Early London: BTC has printed lower highs from the 82,187 asian high and is holding the 81,281 london low, near the 78.6% retrace of the Asian swing up from the 81,120 asian low. RSI(14) near 38 is soft but not stretched, and the residual hawkish US data impulse remains the backdrop with no fresh crypto news.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 81,281 london low exposes the 81,120 asian low and confirms a lower-low
Close above the 81,522 lower high and the lower-highs trendline breaks the sequence, with the 81,800 swing high next
US ADP 4-wk avg at 12:15 UTC and housing data into 14:00 UTC could shift this read during NY hours
08:47 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since 05:15 UTC · RSI 33 · price 81,448.30
Lower highs and lower lows through London open, inside the Asian range.
The Asia session bounced from the 81,120 asian low to the 82,187 asian high at 05:15 UTC. London has since printed lower highs at the 81,800 swing high and the 81,522 bounce, under a falling trend line, with a session low at 81,281. Price is holding just above that low with RSI(14) near 33, as the residual hawkish US data impulse keeps BTC heavy.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 81,281 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 81,120 asian low
A break of the asian low takes price out of the Asian range to the downside
Close above the falling trend line and the 81,800 swing high breaks the lower-high sequence
US ADP and housing data at 12:15–14:00 UTC could shift this read in the NY session
Lower-high sequence from 82,187; London low 81,281 sits above the 81,120 Asia low.
Highs have stepped lower from the 82,187 Asian high to the 81,800 lower high. The first hour of London extended the slide to an 81,281 session low, still above the 81,120 24h low. RSI(14) near 41 and price below both EMAs, against a hawkish US rate backdrop after last week's hot PPI and retail sales.
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 81,281 session low exposes the 81,120 24h low and extends the lower-low chain
M15 close above the 81,800 lower high breaks the descending-highs structure
Reclaim of the 82,187 Asian high would negate the slide
US ADP and housing data 12:15–14:00 UTC could shift the read during NY hours
08:17 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since Asia · RSI 32 · price 81,360.40
Lower highs and lower lows from the 82187 Asian high into London open.
BTC has carved lower highs off the 82187 Asian high, and the London open pushed it to a fresh session low at 81281. That is a ~78% fib retracement of the Asian rebound from the 81120 asian low. RSI(14) sits near 32, soft but not oversold, and the softer USD tone in the digest has not translated into a bid.
Support: 81,281.49, 81,119.67
Resistance: 81,799.92, 82,187.49
What it said to watch
A close below the 81281 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 81120 asian low
A recovery through the 81800 lower high breaks the descending trendline and the lower-high sequence
A move back toward the 82187 asian high would leave the full Asian rebound intact
US housing data from 12:30 UTC could shift the read during NY hours
08:04 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since 04:15 UTC · RSI 31 · price 81,450.30
Asian rally fully faded; London opening into lows near 81,370, mid-Asian range.
The Asian rally from the 81,120 asian low to the 82,187 asian high has retraced about 76%. Lower highs at 81,800 pushed price into the 81,370 london low early in the London session, RSI(14) near 31 and price below both EMAs. With no BTC-specific news, price is drifting on the residual hawkish-Fed tone despite a softer USD.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 81,800 lower high breaks the lower-highs sequence
Failure to hold the 81,370 london low, just above the 78.6% level of the Asian rally (~81,348), exposes the 81,120 asian low
US housing starts/permits at 12:30 UTC could shift the intraday read
07:47 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since Asia peak · RSI 36 · price 81,490.26
Lower highs and lower lows inside the Asian range, early London.
Early London is trading in the lower half of the Asian range (81120–82187). Lower highs have stepped down from the 82187 Asian high to the 81800 lower high, and the London open printed a new session low at 81403. Price sits just below the 61.8% retrace of the Asian rally, with RSI(14) near 36 and the macro tone quiet on a residual firm-USD, hawkish-Fed backdrop.
Support: 81,403.35, 81,119.67
Resistance: 81,799.92, 82,187.49
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 81403 session low exposes the 81120 Asian low
M15 close above the 81800 lower high breaks the descending sequence
US housing starts/permits at 12:30 UTC could shift the read during NY hours
07:32 UTC
Intraday downtrend since the Asia session high · RSI 30 · price 81,519.23
Lower highs from 82187, testing the 81520 session low at the 61.8% of the Asian rally.
The Asia session rally from the 81120 asian low to the 82187 asian high has been reversed. Early London is pressing 81520, next to the 81500 round number and the 61.8% retracement, with a lower high at 81800 and the prior low at 81643 now overhead. RSI(14) sits near 30 against a residual hawkish-Fed backdrop, and there is no crypto-specific driver.
Support: 81,500.00, 81,362.00, 81,120.00
Resistance: 81,643.00, 81,800.00, 82,187.00
What it said to watch
A close below the 81500 round number exposes the 81362 swing low, then the 81120 asian low
A recovery above the 81800 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline and neutralises the downtrend read
Reclaiming the 81643 prior low would turn the 61.8% area into a hold
US housing starts and permits at 12:30 UTC could shift tone during NY hours
Lower highs from 83058; Asian low 81120, fade to 50% fib.
Asia session swept under the NY lows to 81120, bounced to an Asian high at 82187 that matched last night's cap, and has faded back to the 50% retracement of that Asian swing near 81655 in early European trade. Highs keep stepping lower from 83058, with the 81539 swing low holding and the 81800 swing high capping. The macro backdrop is still a hawkish Fed after last week's hot PPI.
Support: 81,539.20, 81,119.67
Resistance: 81,799.92, 82,187.49, 82,465.18
What it said to watch
Close below the 81539 swing low (61.8% of the Asian swing) exposes the 81120 Asian low
M15 close above the 81800 swing high and the lower-highs line near 82060 would break the descending sequence, with the 82187 Asian high next
Only a move through the 82465 NY high would clear the full lower-highs structure
US housing starts/permits at 12:30 UTC could shift the USD and this read
Inside Asian range, pullback holding at 61.8% fib.
London opens Tuesday with BTC mid-Asian range (81120–82187). The overnight rebound met rejection at the lower-highs line and retraced to a swing low at 81540, the 61.8% fib of the Asian rebound. Monday's lower highs (83058 → 82679 → 82465 → 82187) remain intact despite a softer dollar, with RSI(14) near 41 and price below both EMAs.
Support: 81,540.00, 81,120.00
Resistance: 81,800.00, 82,187.00, 82,465.00
What it said to watch
Break below the 81540 swing low exposes the 81120 Asian low and resumes the lower-low sequence
Close above the 81800 bounce high and the lower-highs line near 82100 would put the 82187 Asian high back in play, then the NY high at 82465
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and housing starts/permits (12:30 UTC) could shift the read via USD and yields
Late Asia session, just ahead of London open. The Asian high at 82187 capped price twice, at 22:15 and 04:15 UTC. The pullback from the second rejection held a swing low at 81540, near the 61.8% fib of the 81120–82187 Asian leg, and price has bounced back to 81765 with RSI(14) neutral near 49. Price sits just under both EMAs, with no crypto-specific driver and a mixed USD backdrop.
Support: 81,540.00, 81,120.00
Resistance: 82,000.00, 82,187.00
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 81540 swing low exposes the asian low at 81120 and breaks the higher-low sequence
An M15 close above the 82000 round number puts the 82187 asian high back in play; a close above it breaks the Asian range
London open may set direction out of the Asian range
US housing starts and permits at 12:30 UTC could shift USD and risk tone
06:32 UTC
Downtrend, Asian bounce faded · RSI 46 · price 81,728.99
Lower highs from 82465 NY high; higher low at 81539 inside Asian range.
The NY-open sell-off from the 82465 NY high set a lower-highs sequence. Asia printed an 81120 Asian low, rallied to 82187 and was rejected under the falling trendline, and the pullback held the 81539 swing low near the 61.8% fib of that rally. Price sits mid Asian range into London open with RSI(14) neutral at 46, and the softer USD has given little lift.
Support: 81,539.20, 81,119.67
Resistance: 82,000.00, 82,187.49, 82,465.18
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 81539 swing low breaks the Asian higher low and exposes the 81120 Asian low
Close above the 82000 round number and the 82187 Asian high clears the lower-highs trendline, with the 82465 NY high next
London open in ~30 min could set the session range off the 81539–82187 Asian range
US ADP 4-week average 12:15 UTC and housing starts/permits 12:30 UTC could shift USD and this read in the NY session
Lower-high sequence from 83057; Asia rebound capped at 82187, now retracing toward 61.8%.
Asia swept to an 81120 asian low before a rebound stalled at 82187, another lower high in the sequence from 83057. The London open is giving back that leg after a breakdown through 81920. Price is near the 61.8% retrace at ~81530, RSI(14) 42, with BTC lagging a softer USD amid the residual hawkish-Fed tone.
Support: 81,460.00, 81,120.00
Resistance: 81,920.00, 82,187.00
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 81460 pivot low exposes the 81120 asian low
An M15 close back above the 81920 breakdown level neutralises the pullback read
A break of the 82187 asian high ends the lower-highs sequence
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and housing starts/permits (12:30 UTC) during the NY session could shift this read
Lower highs from 83,057; Asia rebound capped at 82,187, now at 50% retrace.
The Asia rebound from the 81,120 asian low stalled at the 82,187 asian high, a second rejection at the session's opening peak. Price has faded back to the 50% fib near 81,640 into the late Asia session ahead of London open. The lower-high sequence from yesterday's 83,057 peak is intact, and RSI(14) at ~40 shows a softer USD giving little lift against the hawkish-Fed backdrop.
What it said to watch
A close below the 81,485 swing low takes out the 61.8% fib and exposes the 81,120 asian low for a lower-low extension
A reclaim of the 82,000 round number reopens the 82,187 asian high; a close above the 82,465 ny high breaks the lower-high sequence
US housing data at 12:30 UTC is the next macro catalyst via USD and yields
Asia session broke below Monday's 81,643 NY low to the Asian low at 81,120, then reclaimed it and rallied to the Asian high at 82,187. The pullback has held a swing low at 81,741, just past the 38.2% retrace and on the rising lows line, with price sitting mid-range ahead of London open and RSI(14) near 56. The softer USD tone in the digest has not yet carried price through the Asian high.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the Asian high at 82,187 opens the NY high at 82,465
Failure to hold the 81,741 swing low breaks the rising lows line and exposes the 81,485 higher low
A break below 81,485 brings the Asian low at 81,120 back into play
US housing starts and permits at 12:30 UTC could shift the USD read during the NY session
Higher lows off session low, capped at twin highs.
The early-session drop swept the prior 81643 lows into a session low at 81120. Higher lows then carried price back to 82187, where late-yesterday's twin highs capped it again. Price is now easing toward the 38.2% fib of that rebound near 81780, sitting just above EMA20/EMA50, RSI(14) cooling to ~53, with no crypto-specific driver and only a residual hawkish-Fed backdrop.
Support: 81,760.00, 81,547.00, 81,120.00
Resistance: 82,187.00, 82,679.00
What it said to watch
Hold of the 81760 pullback low keeps the higher-low sequence intact; a break of the 81547 higher low unwinds it
A close above the 82187 twin highs opens the path to the 82679 swing high
Failure at 81120 session low confirms a lower low on the day
US ADP 12:15 UTC and housing starts/permits 12:30 UTC could shift USD tone and this read
Lower highs from 83,058; Asia recovery capped at prior high.
Asia session flushed to the 81,120 asian low, then recovered to 82,187. That asian high matched the late-NY high and was rejected under the lower-highs trendline from 82,679. Price is now near 81,930, about 24% back into the bounce on the fib, with RSI(14) flat near 50 and EMAs sitting just below.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 82,187 asian high breaks the lower-highs trendline and puts the 82,465 NY swing high in view
Loss of the 81,681 higher low, near the 38.2% fib at ~81,780, reopens the asian low at 81,120
London open in under 2h typically expands the Asian range
US ADP 4-week average (12:15 UTC) and housing starts/permits (12:30 UTC) are the next USD-driven risk
05:05 UTC
Recovering from early-Asia flush, stalling below Asia high · RSI 60 · price 81,987.71
Higher-low recovery off 81120 now flattening into a tight 81965–82100 box.
Early Asia swept Monday's NY low near 81640 down to the 81120 asia low, then rebuilt in a higher-low chain to 82187. That asia high capped price at the same zone as late-Monday's 82185 top. Price is now compressing in a 81965–82100 box into the London open on a quiet, residual-hawkish macro tape, with RSI(14) near 60 and the 23.6% fib of the bounce sitting just under the micro low.
Support: 81,965.00, 81,680.00, 81,120.00
Resistance: 82,187.00, 82,465.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 82187 asia high breaks the rejection and opens the 82465 ny high
Loss of the 81965 micro low puts the 81680 higher low (near the fib 50%) in play
Break below 81680 negates the higher-low recovery and exposes the 81120 asia low
US ADP and housing data from 12:15 UTC could shift USD and BTC tone into the NY session
04:46 UTC
Intraday recovery, stalling at session high · RSI 64 · price 82,018.68
HH/HL chain off the 81,120 Asian low, capped at 82,187.
Early Asia session took out Monday's NY lows near 81,640 down to the 81,120 Asian low, then rebuilt a HH/HL chain into an 82,187 session high, matching the late-NY 82,185 top where it was rejected. Price is holding above the 81,914 higher low into London open with RSI(14) near 64. No fresh crypto news, and the hawkish-Fed tone is the residual drag.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 82,187 session high breaks the twin-top cap and opens the 82,679 prior high
Loss of the 81,914 higher low ends the HL chain; below that, the rising support line and the 81,485 swing low come into play
Fib 50% of the Asian recovery sits near 81,653, the midpoint of the move
Failure to hold the 81,120 Asian low confirms a fresh lower-low
US housing starts/permits at 12:30 UTC could shift the USD-driven read
04:32 UTC
Intraday uptrend off the Asian low, stalling at 82187 · RSI 66 · price 82,003.69
Higher-high/higher-low chain from 81120, rejection wick at the asia high.
Early in the Asia session, price swept below the prior ny low at 81643 to an asia low of 81120. It then rebuilt a higher-low chain back to an asia high of 82187, where the latest bar left a rejection wick. Late Asia now sits above both EMAs with RSI(14) near 66, on a quiet tape still carrying the hawkish-Fed, firm-USD backdrop.
Support: 81,643.09, 81,119.67
Resistance: 82,187.49, 82,465.18
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 82187 asia high opens the path to the 82465 ny high
Loss of the 81913 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the 81643 ny low
Break of the Asian rising trendline would invalidate the recovery read; the fib 61.8% sits near 81528
London open in ~2.5h and US housing data at 12:30 UTC could shift this read
04:17 UTC
Intraday uptrend off Asia low, pressing range top · RSI 60 · price 82,033.66
V-recovery with HH/HL chain after Asia sweep of NY low; testing late-NY highs.
Asia session swept below yesterday's ny low at 81643 to an asia low of 81120, then V-recovered. A higher low at 81485, near the 61.8% of the Asia recovery, has lifted price back to the 82099 session high just under the 82185 prior high. RSI(14) near 60 is not stretched, and macro is quiet with a hawkish-Fed, firm-USD backdrop and no BTC-specific news.
Support: 81,643.09, 81,485.26, 81,119.67
Resistance: 82,098.59, 82,185.49, 82,465.18
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 82185 prior high clears the late-NY range top and opens the 82465 ny high; rejection there keeps price capped under yesterday's highs
Slip back below the 81643 ny low turns the Asia sweep into a failed recovery
Loss of the 81485 higher low and the higher-low trendline breaks the Asia recovery structure and reopens the 81120 asia low
US housing starts/permits at 12:30 UTC could shift the USD tone and this read
04:04 UTC
Intraday rebound, higher lows since Asia low · RSI 62 · price 82,058.63
V-recovery from 81120 Asia low, HH/HL chain pressing the 82185 range top.
Early Asia trade broke below yesterday's 81643 NY low to an 81120 Asia low, then reclaimed it. A higher low at 81485 followed, and price has since retraced about 88% of the overnight 82185–81120 drop to 82059. RSI(14) is near 62 with price above both EMAs, and there is no crypto-specific driver beyond the lingering hawkish-Fed tone.
Support: 81,485.00, 81,120.00
Resistance: 82,185.00, 82,465.00
What it said to watch
A close above the 82185 range top erases the overnight drop and opens the 82465 NY high; rejection there leaves the 82185–81120 swing intact
Failure to hold the 81485 higher low breaks the Asia HH/HL chain and puts the 81120 Asia low back in focus
US housing starts/permits at 12:30 UTC could shift the USD tone and this read
03:46 UTC
Intraday rebound within a broader decline · RSI 61 · price 81,924.78
Higher lows since Asian low, testing session high.
Early Asia took out Monday's 81643 NY low to an 81120 Asian low, then reclaimed it and built a higher-low chain at 81485 (asia hl) and 81763. Price is now back at the 81981 session high, near the 78.6% of the 82185-81120 fib, with RSI(14) at 61 and no extreme.
Support: 81,763.00, 81,485.00, 81,120.00
Resistance: 81,981.00, 82,185.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 81981 session high opens the 82185 swing high (Monday's late-NY top).
Loss of the 81763 higher low breaks the rebound chain and exposes the 81485 asia hl near the rising trendline.
Rejection at 81981 turns the Asian range into a lower high under 82185.
US housing data at 12:30 UTC could shift USD tone and this read; the macro backdrop is hawkish-Fed and firm-USD.
03:32 UTC
Downtrend, rebounding off the Asia low · RSI 51 · price 81,776.94
Lower highs since London high; higher lows off 81,120.
Yesterday's lower-high sequence from 83,057 extended into Asia with a sweep of the 81,643 lows to an 81,120 session low. The rebound has printed higher lows at 81,458/81,485, and price is now pausing at the 61.8% retrace of the 82,185–81,120 leg, just under the 81,929 session high and the falling trendline. The backdrop is the residual hawkish-Fed, firm-USD tone, with no BTC-specific news.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 81,929 session high and the falling trendline breaks the lower-high sequence and exposes 82,185
Failure to hold the 81,458 higher low re-exposes the 81,120 session low
US housing starts and permits at 12:30 UTC could shift the USD read and this structure
03:17 UTC
Downtrend of lower highs, Asia rebound in progress · RSI 49 · price 81,818.90
Sweep below prior low reclaimed, higher-low chain into trendline.
Late in the Asia session. Price flushed below Monday's 81643 prior low to an 81120 asia low, then reclaimed it on a higher-low chain from 81458. It is now testing the falling trendline off 82998 near the 81929 bounce high, above the 61.8% of the 82185–81120 drop and pressing the 50-EMA; RSI(14) is neutral near 49 with no BTC-specific catalyst in the feed.
Support: 81,643.00, 81,458.00, 81,120.00
Resistance: 81,929.00, 82,185.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 81929 bounce high and the falling trendline opens the 82185 range top
Slip back below the 81643 prior low turns the sweep into a fresh test of the 81120 asia low
Break of the 81458 higher low negates the rebound chain
US housing data 12:30 UTC Tue could shift USD tone and this read
03:04 UTC
Downtrend, Asia bounce in progress · RSI 45 · price 81,697.03
Lower highs since London high; Asia higher lows forming.
Lower highs have held since Monday's 83058 London-session high. Asia broke Monday's 81643 low and printed an 81120 Asia low before rebounding to the 50% fib of the 82185–81120 leg. Higher lows at 81120 and 81485 now frame a short-term bounce, with the 81856 swing high capping it, price pinned at EMA20 and RSI(14) neutral near 45, while a firm-USD, hawkish-Fed tone lingers.
Support: 81,485.26, 81,119.67
Resistance: 81,855.85, 82,185.49
What it said to watch
Close above the 81856 swing high breaks the lower-high chain and exposes the 82185 late NY high
Loss of the 81485 higher low breaks the Asia trendline and returns focus to the 81120 Asia low
US housing data at 12:30 UTC could shift the rate-sensitive USD read
02:47 UTC
Downtrend, consolidating after Asia low · RSI 42 · price 81,590.15
Lower highs and lower lows intact; tight range under prior low.
Lower highs run from the 83,057 London high on Monday. The Asia session broke Monday's 81,643 prior low and hit 81,120 (asia low). The bounce stalled at the 81,767 swing high, near the 61.8% fib of the drop from the 82,185 lower high. Price is now compressing between the 81,458 higher low and 81,767, below EMA20 with RSI(14) near 42. The tape is quiet against a firm-USD, hawkish-Fed backdrop.
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 81,643 prior low puts the 81,767 swing high in play; a break there ends the lower-high chain
Failure to hold the 81,458 higher low reopens the 81,120 asia low
Reclaim of the 82,185 lower high invalidates the downtrend read
US housing data at 12:30 UTC could add NY-session volatility to a quiet tape
Asia range break below Monday's NY range low, rebound capped under prior shelf.
The Asia session broke the 81643 range low built during Monday's NY hours and swept to 81120. The rebound stalled at 81767, just under the 61.8% retracement and below the lower highs line, and price is back under the old range low, which is now acting as resistance. RSI(14) is neutral at 46. A firm USD and higher yields remain the macro drag.
Support: 81,458.29, 81,119.67
Resistance: 81,643.09, 81,766.95, 82,185.49
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 81767 bounce high breaks the lower-highs sequence and reopens the 82185 range high.
A failure to hold the 81458 higher low exposes the 81120 asia low.
Acceptance back inside the range, above the 81643 range low, would turn the Asia break into a false break.
US housing starts and permits at 12:30 UTC could shift USD and yields, the main drag on BTC.
LH/LL chain; Asia bounce capped below 61.8% of the drop.
Asia session broke Monday's NY low at 81643 and extended to a session low at 81120, with the firm-USD, 5.13% 10y backdrop still weighing. The bounce stalled at 81767, just under the 61.8% retrace of the Asia drop from 82185, and price has slipped back below the old NY low.
Support: 81,362.40, 81,119.67
Resistance: 81,643.09, 81,766.95, 82,185.49
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 81767 bounce high and the lower-highs trendline breaks the LH/LL chain
Loss of the 81362 swing low puts the 81120 session low back in play; a break there extends the lower-low sequence
Reclaiming 81643 (prior NY low) would turn it from resistance back to support
US housing data at 12:30 UTC and yields/equity tone into London open could shift this read
02:04 UTC
Downtrend, early-Asia rebound off new low · RSI 42 · price 81,671.06
Lower highs from 83057; Monday low broken then reclaimed.
Lower highs run from the 83057 London-open peak to the 82185 lower high in late NY. Early Asia broke the Monday low at 81643 and swept to an 81120 session low before reclaiming it; the bounce high at 81767 stalled just under the 61.8% retrace of the Asia drop. Price sits below both EMAs with RSI(14) near 42, and the backdrop is still last week's hot US data and firm USD with no crypto-specific driver.
Support: 81,643.09, 81,362.40, 81,119.67
Resistance: 81,766.95, 82,185.49
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 81643 monday low turns the reclaim into a failed hold and reopens the 81362 swing low and the 81120 session low
M15 close above the 81767 bounce high clears the 61.8% retrace and points to 82000, then the lower-highs trendline near 82050 and the 82185 lower high
US ADP 4-week average (12:15 UTC) and Housing Starts/Permits (12:30 UTC) later today could shift the read during NY hours
01:46 UTC
Downtrend, bouncing off Asia session low · RSI 39 · price 81,623.11
Lower highs and lower lows since Monday's 83,058 high; retesting broken prior low.
A lower-high chain from Monday's 83,058 top carried into the Asia session, which extended the slide to an 81,120 session low before price bounced back into the 81,655 prior low, near the 50% fib of the 82,185–81,120 leg. RSI(14) sits near 39 with price below both EMAs, and the move fits the firm-USD, hawkish-Fed backdrop with no crypto-specific driver.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 81,655 prior low and 50% fib reclaims the breakdown level; rejection there keeps the lower-high sequence intact
Loss of the 81,360 swing low exposes the 81,120 session low again
Lower-highs trendline and Monday's range top converge near 82,000
US Housing Starts and Building Permits at 12:30 UTC could shift USD tone during NY hours
Lower highs and lower lows; Asia open broke the evening range.
Asia open broke out of the 81,700–82,100 evening range and through yesterday's NY low at 81,643, printing a session low at 81,120. The bounce is stalling just above the 23.6% fib of the 82,185–81,120 leg, with RSI(14) near 34 and the lower-highs line from 82,465 intact against a firm-USD, hawkish-Fed backdrop.
What it said to watch
A reclaim of the 81,643 ny low would turn the Asia range break into a false break
Loss of the 81,120 session low exposes the 81,000 round number
An M15 close above the 82,185 lower high breaks the lower-highs chain
US Housing Starts and Building Permits at 12:30 UTC could shift the read
Lower highs and lower lows from 83,057; overnight range broken to downside.
Early Asia session broke the 81,692–82,185 overnight range and Monday's 81,643 prev day low, printing a session low at 81,120. The 81,652 bounce failed under that level before the latest leg, extending the lower-highs sequence. The backdrop is macro-driven, with firm-USD and hike-pricing pressure and no crypto-specific catalyst. RSI(14) is near 30 but not at an extreme.
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 81,362 broken low would show the break stalling
Reclaim of 81,652 prev day low invalidates the breakdown read
Failure to hold 81,120 session low exposes the 81,000 round number
Break of the lower-highs trendline from 82,998, or above the 82,185 swing high, ends the downtrend sequence
US Housing Starts and Permits at 12:30 UTC, after ADP at 12:15, could shift the USD-driven tone
Lower highs from 83057, Asia broke Monday's NY low.
BTC has printed lower highs since Monday's 83057 London-open rejection, with the hawkish-Fed, firm-USD tone from last week's hot PPI still the backdrop. Early in the Asia session it broke the evening's 81700–82000 range and Monday's NY prior low at 81643, reaching a 81362 session low. The bounce is stalling at 81650, where the prior low lines up with the 38.2% fib of the drop from the 82185 swing high. RSI(14) is near 34.
Support: 81,451.30, 81,362.40
Resistance: 81,650.00, 81,990.00, 82,185.49
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 81650 prior low turns the Asia break into a false break and reopens the 81990 range top
Failure to hold the 81451 bounce low exposes the 81362 session low
Reclaim of the 82185 swing high and the lower-highs line would neutralise the downtrend read
US housing starts and permits at 12:30 UTC are the next macro input for USD-driven moves
00:46 UTC
Downtrend, fresh lower low in Asia · RSI 31 · price 81,542.20
Lower highs since the London-open rejection at 83057; NY floor broken at Asia open.
Early in the Asia session, price broke below the 81643 prior low that capped Monday's NY lows and printed a session low at 81362. The bounce stalled just under the broken level, near the 38.2% fib of the late selloff. Highs have stepped lower from the 83057 London-open rejection through the 82465 NY high and the 82185 late-NY high, with RSI(14) near 31 and the backdrop still set by last week's hot US PPI.
Support: 81,362.40, 81,000.00
Resistance: 81,643.09, 82,185.49, 82,465.18
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 81643 prior low and the 38.2% fib (~81677) would mark the Asia break as a false break
Failure to hold the 81362 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 81000 round number
M15 close above the 82185 late-NY high breaks the lower highs trendline running from the 82465 NY high
US Housing Starts / Building Permits at 12:30 UTC could shift USD and this read
00:32 UTC
Downtrend, fresh lower low in Asia · RSI 26 · price 81,512.23
Lower highs from 82185; NY range floor broken at the Asia open.
London's 83057 high was rejected and the NY open sold off to the 81643 ny low. NY then ranged 81690–82045 under a run of lower highs from the 82185 late high. Early Asia broke that range floor to a session low at 81362, with RSI(14) near 26 and a firm-USD, Fed-hike backdrop after last week's hot PPI.
Support: 81,362.40, 81,000.00
Resistance: 81,643.09, 81,871.00, 82,185.49
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 81643 (ny low) would mark the Asia break as a false break
Failure to hold the 81362 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 81000 round number
Close above the lower-high trendline and the fib 61.8 near 81871 negates the lower-high sequence back toward the 82185 late high
US Housing Starts / Building Permits at 12:30 UTC later today could shift the USD-driven read
00:18 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since London high · RSI 36 · price 81,692.03
Lower-high chain from 83057, retesting day low.
Lower highs since the 83057 London high, with the NY open breaking 82022 to set the 81643 day low as a firm USD and hawkish Fed pricing weigh. Asia opened with a drop from below the 82000 psych cap to 81668, retesting the day low with RSI(14) at 36.
Support: 81,643.09
Resistance: 82,000.00, 82,185.49, 82,465.18
What it said to watch
M15 close below 81643 day low extends the lower-low sequence
Recovery above the 82185 swing high breaks the lower-high chain; NY high at 82465 caps above
US Housing Starts and Permits at 12:30 UTC could shift the read via USD
00:04 UTC
Downtrend, compressing into a range · RSI 43 · price 81,837.87
Lower highs from 83,057; tight 81,640–82,190 range since NY hours.
London open spiked to the 83,057 day high and was rejected. NY hours extended the lower-high chain down to an 81,643 day low under a still-hawkish Fed backdrop. Since then price has held a tight range, with the 81,700 swing lows absorbing dips, the 82,080 range cap and descending trendline capping bounces, and the 82,185 late high stalling at the 38.2% fib; the new Asia session opens in the lower half, RSI(14) ~43.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 82,185 late high breaks the descending trendline; 82,465 lower high is the next pivot
Failure to hold the 81,700 swing lows and the 81,643 day low confirms a lower-low
Range cap at 82,080 is the area to watch for rejection or break during the Asian range build
US housing starts/permits Tue 12:30 UTC is the next macro catalyst for USD-driven moves