19:07 UTC
Macro downtrend from Oct 2025 record high, Q3 2026 recovery stalling at EMA50 · RSI 56 · price 81,095.69
Double bottom near 58–60k, Aug range break, retest of 82.7k neckline after 87.3k high.
BTC has been in a macro downtrend since the October 2025 record near 126,200. A double bottom formed at 60,000 in Q1 and the 57,740 cycle low in late June, and the August range break from the 58–67k base cleared the broken downtrend line from the record high. The recovery peaked at the 87,270 swing high in late September, between the 38.2% (83,900) and 50% (91,950) levels of the ATH-to-low retrace, and price has since slipped back to a flattening W1 EMA50 near 81,700, with resilient US data and 4.7% inflation expectations a mild macro headwind into the Fed.
What it said to watch
- A weekly close back above the ema50 near 81,700 and the 82,700 neckline keeps the double bottom recovery structure intact
- Failure to hold the 80,000 psych level and the 74,900 higher low reopens the 58–67k base, with the 57,740 cycle low back in focus
- A weekly close above the 87,270 swing high exposes the 50% retrace near 91,950 and the 97,710 jan high
- Fed decision Wed 28 Oct 18:00 UTC: December-hike signalling could firm USD and pressure the 80,000 psych level; a dovish lean on housing weakness could do the opposite