Higher lows off 83,064 day low; tight 83,810–84,075 range.
NY session unwound the London run to 85,076. The drop bottomed at the 83,064 day low into the 14:00 UTC Michigan print, as mixed-to-firm US data and sticky inflation expectations kept a mild rates headwind on. Since then price has printed higher lows at 83,244 and 83,510 along a rising lows line and is now pressing the 84,000 psych area, where the 50% retrace of the selloff (~84,070) capped the late-NY high at 84,075.
What it said to watch
M15 close above 84,075 (50% retrace) opens the path to the 84,466 bounce high
Loss of the 83,810 range floor and the rising lows line refocuses on the 83,510 higher low
Break below the 83,064 day low would resume the NY-session downtrend
Thin weekend trade with no US data until Tue JOLTS; Fed speakers Musalem, Goolsbee and Williams could shift yields and risk tone
20:32 UTC
Sideways after NY selloff, lows rising · RSI 54 · price 83,941.56
Higher lows compressing under a flat 84,000–84,015 range cap.
London ran above the Asian high to 85,076, then NY unwound the move to an 83,065 NY low around the Michigan print. Since then price has printed higher lows at 83,244, 83,510 and 83,785 under a flat range cap at 84,000–84,015, and late NY bars are compressing at the EMA50 near 83,940 with RSI(14) near 54; Hammack's 18:00 UTC remarks produced no break.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 84,015 range cap opens the fib 50% at 84,070, then the Asian high at 84,710
Break of the 83,785 swing low puts the 83,510 higher low and the rising-lows line in play
Failure to hold 83,510 exposes the NY low at 83,065 and ends the higher-low sequence
Thin post-NY liquidity into the weekend; next scheduled macro input is Tue JOLTS and Fed speakers
20:17 UTC
Down from session high, now compressing · RSI 54 · price 83,860.65
Lower highs and higher lows since the NY sell-off; tight range after NY close.
After the rejection at the 85076 day high late in London, BTC sold off through the NY open to an 83064 day low around the 14:00 UTC Michigan print, as mixed-to-firm US data kept a mild rates headwind in place. Since then it has printed higher lows (83244, 83510) under lower highs (84466, 84014). It is now compressed in an 83816–83972 range at the 38.2% retrace of the drop, with a pennant shape forming and RSI(14) flat near 54.
Support: 83,510.03
Resistance: 84,465.98, 85,076.31
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 83972 range top breaks the falling trendline and opens the 84466 lower high near the 61.8% retrace
Loss of the 83816 range floor exposes the 83510 swing low and the rising trendline
A break back below the 83064 day low negates the higher-low sequence
No US data until JOLTS on Tuesday; thin weekend liquidity can produce outsized moves out of a tight range
20:04 UTC
Down from London high, basing in late NY · RSI 52 · price 83,906.60
Higher lows compressing under 84,015.
London pushed above the Asian range to a session high at 85,076, then NY reversed through the Asian low to an 83,065 session low as the slide sped up around the mixed US durables and Michigan releases. Higher lows at 83,244 and 83,510 have since squeezed price into an 83,817–84,015 box, holding just above the 38.2% retrace of the drop, with RSI(14) near 52 and price between EMA20 and EMA50.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 84,015 range top opens the 84,466 breakdown area, with the 50% retrace near 84,070 in between
Loss of the rising-lows line and the 83,817 range floor exposes the 83,510 higher low
Break below the 83,510 higher low reopens the 83,065 session low
Friday late-NY into weekend: thinner liquidity; next scheduled US risk is Tuesday's JOLTS and Fed speakers
19:47 UTC
Down from the 85,076 London high, now basing · RSI 51 · price 83,903.60
Higher lows from the 83,064 NY low under flat-to-lower highs, a tightening pennant.
London's run to 85,076 fully unwound in the NY session, with a flush to the 83,064 NY low around the 14:00 UTC Michigan/UoM data as a firm USD weighed. Since then, higher lows at 83,244 and 83,510 have formed beneath a lower high at 84,014. Late NY has compressed into an 83,785 range low / 83,972 range top box near the 38.2% retrace of the sell-off, with RSI(14) flat at 51.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 84,014 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence and opens the 84,070 50% fib
Loss of the 83,510 higher low breaks the pennant and exposes the 83,064 NY low
Break of the 83,785 range low or 83,972 range top ends the post-Hammack compression
No scheduled US data in the next 8h; the next macro catalyst is Tue JOLTS
19:32 UTC
Down from session high, basing with higher lows · RSI 50 · price 83,891.61
Higher lows 83064-83244-83510 under a flat cap near 84015.
London's run to 85076 was rejected, and NY hours unwound it to an 83064 session low around the 14:00 UTC Michigan print, with the mixed-to-firm US data adding no lift. Since then, late in NY, price has built higher lows at 83244 and 83510 under a range cap near 84015 and is sitting at the 38.2% fib, with RSI(14) flat near 50.
Support: 83,510.00, 83,244.00, 83,064.00
Resistance: 84,015.00, 84,460.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 84015 range cap opens the 50% fib near 84070, then the 84460 breakdown area
Loss of the rising trendline and the 83510 swing low breaks the higher-low chain; below 83244 the 83064 session low is exposed
Calendar is clear until Tuesday's JOLTS; thin weekend liquidity can exaggerate moves around these levels
19:17 UTC
Post-selloff recovery, rising lows under a flat cap · RSI 54 · price 83,909.59
Higher lows since the 83,065 low, capped near 84,000.
The London push to 85,076 reversed hard through NY morning and bottomed at 83,065 around the 14:00 UTC Michigan release, with firm US data weighing. Since then lows have risen at 83,244 and 83,510, while the range cap near 84,000 has rejected price four times. Price sits mid-range late in the NY session, just above the 38.2% fib, with RSI(14) neutral near 54.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 84,014 range cap opens the 61.8% fib at 84,308
Break of the 83,510 higher low negates the rising-lows structure and puts the 83,065 session low back in view
Thin late-Friday liquidity can exaggerate a break of either edge; next scheduled US risk is JOLTS on Tuesday
Higher lows off 83064 session low, capped under 84000.
London's push above the 84710 Asian high to 85076 failed, and NY sold through the Asian low to an 83064 session low around the Michigan release. Since then BTC has printed higher lows at 83244 and 83510 along a rising trendline but keeps stalling at the 84014 range top. Price sits near the 38.2% fib of the drop, and Hammack's 18:00 UTC remarks produced no break.
Support: 83,510.00, 83,244.00, 83,064.00
Resistance: 84,014.00, 84,465.00, 84,710.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 84014 range top opens the 50% fib near 84070 and the 84465 lower high
Loss of the 83510 swing low breaks the higher-low trendline and exposes the 83244 higher low and 83064 session low
Late NY into Friday's thin close; no scheduled US data until JOLTS on Tue, so crypto-native headlines would dominate
Higher lows off the NY session low, capped below 84015 swing high.
London's push through the asian high at 84700 failed at 85076. NY unwound the move through the Asian low to a session low at 83064 around the mixed US durables and Michigan data. Late NY has since printed a rising chain of lows (swing low 83244, higher low 83510) back to the 38.2% fib near 83830, with the 84015 swing high capping and RSI(14) flat near 49.
Support: 83,510.03, 83,244.33
Resistance: 84,465.98
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 84015 swing high breaks the late-NY cap and opens the prior shelf near 84466
Failure to hold the 83510 higher low breaks the rising trendline and exposes the 83244 swing low, then the 83064 session low
Reclaim of the asian high at 84700 would neutralise the NY selloff read
Thin late-NY liquidity after Hammack's 18:00 UTC remarks can stretch bars beyond the ~265-point ATR
Higher lows under a flat range top after an NY flush.
London pushed through the Asian high to 85,076, but the move failed. NY then sold through the Asian low to an 83,064 ny low around the UoM release before reclaiming the range. Late NY is compressing between a higher-lows line (83,244 higher low, 83,510 swing low) and a range top near 84,015, with price parked at the 38.2% retrace of the drop and RSI(14) flat near 48.
What it said to watch
Close above the 84,015 range top clears the 50% retrace and opens the prior shelf at 84,465, then the asian high at 84,710
Loss of the 83,510 swing low breaks the higher-lows line and puts the 83,244 higher low and 83,064 ny low back in play
Hammack remarks (18:00 UTC) and any move in USD yields are the live macro risk into thin weekend liquidity
18:17 UTC
Intraday downtrend, recovering off NY low · RSI 51 · price 83,903.60
Higher lows since the NY low, capped by 84014 swing high.
London cleared the Asian range high but was rejected at the 85076 session high. NY then broke through the Asian low to an 83064 NY low around the 14:00 UTC Michigan release. Since then, higher lows at the 83244 swing low and 83510 are compressing price under the 84014 swing high, between the 38.2% and 50% fib retracements.
Support: 83,510.03, 83,244.33
Resistance: 84,014.48, 84,464.00, 85,076.31
What it said to watch
Close above the 84014 swing high clears the 50% fib near 84070 and opens the 84464 breakdown area
Failure to hold the 83510 higher low and rising support line reopens the 83244 swing low and the 83064 NY low
Nothing scheduled in the next 8h after Hammack; weekend liquidity and equity risk tone set the drift
18:05 UTC
Down off London high, stabilising · RSI 49 · price 83,726.79
Higher lows vs lower highs, back inside Asian range.
London's push above the Asian range to 85,076 failed. The NY selloff through the 14:00 UTC US data window swept the asian low down to 83,064 before price reclaimed it. Since then, higher lows from 83,244 have met a lower high at 84,014 and 83,882, compressing price just under the ema20 and the 38.2% retrace of the drop near 83,830.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the asian low at 83,609 and the 83,510 swing low breaks the higher-lows sequence
Close above the 83,882 lower high and 84,014 swing high clears the post-selloff cap and the 38.2% retrace
Loss of the 83,064 session low reopens the NY downleg
Fed's Hammack speaking at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read via USD and yields
London pushed through the Asian high at 84,710 to 85,076 but the break failed. NY unwound the whole move in a sell-off to the 83,064 NY low around the mixed-to-firm US data. Since then price is coiling in a pennant, with rising lows at 83,244 and 83,510 against lower highs at 84,014 and 83,882, while RSI(14) sits near 43 and price holds below both EMAs.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 84,014 swing high breaks the lower-high chain and puts the 50% fib of the sell-off near 84,070 in play
Close below the 83,510 rising low breaks the pennant and exposes the 83,244 higher low, then the 83,064 NY low
A close back above the 83,882 lower high would mark the first break of the pennant's upper line
Fed's Hammack at 18:00 UTC is the next catalyst that could force the pennant to resolve
Reclaim of the 84,710 Asian high would negate the false-break read
17:32 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since the London sell-off · RSI 44 · price 83,546.99
Lower-high chain beneath 84015, price pressing the NY-session lows.
London faded from the 85,076 session high through the 12:30 UTC US data and bottomed at the 83,065 day low. The NY bounce stalled at the 84,015 bounce high, below the 50% sell-off fib, and has since printed a lower high at 83,880. Price is now slipping under the 83,570 NY-session low with RSI(14) near 44, and the 83,244 swing low is the next reference below.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 83,244 swing low exposes the 83,065 day low
Recovery above the 83,880 lower high and the 84,015 bounce high breaks the lower-high chain
Only a reclaim of the 84,710 asian high restores the pre-sell-off range
Fed's Hammack at 18:00 UTC could shift USD and yields and materially change this read
17:17 UTC
Intraday down leg, stabilising · RSI 48 · price 83,856.65
Compression between 83,244 higher low and 84,014 lower high after NY selloff.
London's break above the 84,710 Asian high peaked at a 85,076 session high around the US durables release. It then failed, and NY hours sold roughly 2,000 into an 83,064 session low as firm data and sticky 4.6% inflation expectations kept the hawkish read intact. Price has since compressed between an 83,244 higher low and an 84,014 lower high, sitting near the 38.2% fib and EMA20 with RSI(14) flat near 48.
What it said to watch
Fed's Hammack at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 84,014 lower high and 50% fib opens a retest of the 84,710 Asian high
Break of the rising lows line and the 83,600 swing low exposes the 83,244 higher low
Loss of 83,244 puts the 83,064 session low back in play
17:06 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since London high · RSI 43 · price 83,668.86
London's push to 85,076 reversed hard into early NY, cutting through the Asian range and printing a session low at 83,064 as mixed-to-firm US data kept the rates backdrop firm. The late-NY bounce met rejection at a lower high of 84,014, just under the 50% fib, and price is back below both EMAs pressing the 83,600 swing low with RSI(14) near 43.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 83,600 swing low exposes the 83,244 higher low and the 83,064 session low
M15 close above the 84,014 lower high and the lower highs trendline undercuts the downtrend read, with the 84,466 breakdown point above
Fed's Hammack at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read via yields and the USD
16:47 UTC
Down since London high, now compressing · RSI 45 · price 83,760.76
Lower high at 84014 under 85076 high; range 83244–84014 after London close.
London broke above the Asian range to 85076 but failed there. NY hours then swept below the Asian low at 83609 to an 83064 session low as mixed-to-firm US data landed. Since then price has compressed between the 83244 swing low and the 84014 swing high, stalling just under the 50% retrace of the NY selloff, with RSI(14) near 45 and price sitting below the ema20 around 83890.
Support: 83,608.92, 83,244.33
Resistance: 83,890.00, 84,014.48
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 83609 asian low reopens the 83244 swing low
M15 close above the 84014 swing high breaks the lower-high sequence and clears the 50% retrace of the NY selloff
Break of the 83064 session low extends the NY selloff
Fed's Hammack at 18:00 UTC could shift USD and yields and materially change this read
16:32 UTC
NY sell-off paused, early recovery · RSI 45 · price 83,868.64
Higher low at 83,244 after session low; bounce capped below fib 50%.
The London rally to 85,076 reversed through the NY session. The sell-off hit a 83,064 session low around the 14:00 UTC releases, as mixed-to-firm US data left the hawkish USD read intact. Price has since carved a higher low at 83,244 and sits on the 38.2% retracement near 83,830, flat around EMA20 and capped at the 84,014 bounce high just under the fib 50% at 84,070.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 84,014 bounce high and fib 50% at 84,070 opens the 84,466 lower high
Loss of the 83,610 asia low exposes the 83,244 higher low, then the 83,064 session low
Fed's Hammack at 18:00 UTC could shift USD and yields, and with them this read
NY flush to 83,065, higher low at 83,244, capped at 83,995.
Rejection at the 85,076 London high led a sharp NY-session drop through the Asian low to an 83,065 session low. The mixed-to-firm US data gave no clear catalyst. Buyers stepped in, printed a higher low at 83,244 and reclaimed 83,609, and price is now pressing the 83,995 lower high just under the 50% fib at 84,070, with RSI(14) near 45 and price hugging EMA20.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 83,995 lower high and the 50% fib at 84,070 opens the 61.8% fib at 84,308
Slip back below the Asian low at 83,609 would negate the false-break reclaim
Failure to hold the 83,244 higher low reopens the 83,065 session low
Fed's Hammack at 18:00 UTC could shift USD and yields, and with them this read
16:04 UTC
Downtrend, early stabilisation · RSI 39 · price 83,730.79
Lower highs from 85,076; NY range 83,065–83,995 with a tentative higher low.
The London push above the Asian range high failed at 85,076. NY then sold through the Asian low to a session low of 83,065 around the 14:00 UTC Michigan and inflation-expectations release. The bounce stalled at the 83,995 NY swing high, just below the 50% fib of the London-NY drop, and a higher low at 83,244 is holding with price sitting just under the 83,784 Asian low.
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 83,784 Asian low and the 83,995 NY swing high breaks the lower-highs trendline read
Failure to hold the 83,244 higher low reopens the 83,065 session low
84,466 breakdown level near the 61.8% fib caps any extended bounce
Fed's Hammack at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read via USD and yields
Lower highs from 85076, trading below Asian range.
London's run to 85076 reversed in NY hours. Price broke through the Asian low at 83784 and flushed to a session low at 83065 around the firm US data (Michigan beat, inflation expectations sticky). The bounce was rejected at 83995, between the 38.2% and 50% fib of the drop, which keeps the lower-high chain intact below the asian low.
Support: 83,338.22, 83,064.52
Resistance: 83,783.73, 84,465.98
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 83995 bounce high breaks the lower-high chain and reopens the 84466 lower high
Failure to hold the 83338 swing low exposes the 83065 session low
Fed's Hammack at 18:00 UTC could shift this read; thin weekend liquidity follows
NY flush broke the Asian range low; lower highs since 12:00 UTC.
London ran from the 83,609 london low to 85,076 before NY broke the Asian range low and flushed to the 83,065 session low by 14:00 UTC, against a firm US data backdrop (durables and sentiment beats) that leans against easing. The rebound capped at the 83,996 bounce high, under the fib 50% near 84,070 and the lower-high trendline from 84,466, and price is back on the london low.
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 83,609 london low exposes the 83,456 higher low and the 83,065 session low
M15 close above the 83,996 bounce high breaks the lower-high trendline and brings 84,466 lower high into view
Fed's Hammack at 18:00 UTC and thin weekend crypto liquidity could materially shift this read
Failed push above 85,000, lower low at 83,064, corrective bounce.
London broke through the Asian range high but stalled at 85,076. Firmer US durables and Michigan prints during NY hours then drove price through the london low to an 83,064 session low. The bounce has retraced to the 38.2% fib and is capped just under the 84,000 round number, with a higher low at 83,456 underneath.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 84,000 round number and the 84,070 fib 50% opens a retest of the 84,466 breakdown shelf
Loss of the 83,456 higher low exposes the london low at 83,609 first, then the 83,064 session low
Fed's Hammack at 18:00 UTC and thin weekend crypto liquidity could stretch moves well beyond ATR
London high rejected, NY sell-off lower low at 83,065, bounce back inside Asian range.
London ran through the Asian high to 85,076, but supply capped that level and the NY sell-off swept the Asian low and London low to an 83,065 NY low as firm US durables and Michigan data weighed. Price has since reclaimed the Asian low and sits just above the 38.2% fib of the sell-off, with RSI(14) at 44 and ATR(14) near $342.
What it said to watch
Holding the Asian low at 83,784 keeps the rebound intact; losing it reopens the London low at 83,609 and the NY low at 83,065
An M15 close above the 84,000 round number and the 50% fib at 84,070 opens the 84,221 breakdown shelf
The Asian high at 84,710 caps the day's range above; the 85,076 London high was rejected
Fed's Hammack at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs since late-London peak; Asian range low broken in NY.
The late-London spike to 85,076 met rejection, and NY hours extended a chain of lower highs through the Asian low at 83,609 to a session low of 83,065 after firmer US durables and Michigan data leaned against easing hopes. The rebound capped at the 83,815 bounce high, close to the 38.2% of the sell-off fib, and price is back below the Asian low with RSI(14) near 31.
What it said to watch
Sustained trade back above the asian low at 83,609 would turn the break into a false break
M15 close above the 83,815 bounce high and the lower highs trendline ends the sell-off sequence
Failure to hold the 83,338 swing low reopens the 83,065 session low
Fed's Hammack at 18:00 UTC, followed by thin weekend liquidity, could materially shift this read
14:32 UTC
Intraday downtrend after NY reversal, bounce in progress · RSI 35 · price 83,601.93
Lower highs from 85076 session high, range break below Asian low, sweep of prior low.
London's rally to an 85076 session high reversed in the NY session into a lower highs sequence capped at the 84466 lower high. Price broke down through 83990 and below the Asian range, then the 14:00 UTC UoM bar swept the prior low at 83240 to an 83065 sweep low; sentiment beat and inflation expectations held steady, a mix that leans against a dovish repricing. Price is now bouncing off that sweep low, with RSI(14) near 35 and ATR expanding.
Support: 83,338.22, 83,240.33, 83,064.52
Resistance: 83,989.50, 84,465.98
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 83990 breakdown level, near the 50% of the selloff fib, would neutralise the lower-high sequence
Loss of the 83338 bounce low reopens the 83065 sweep low; a close below it confirms a lower-low
Close back under the 83240 prior low undermines the sweep read
A break of the lower highs trendline off 85076 and the 84466 lower high would negate the downtrend read
Fed's Hammack at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
14:17 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since London peak · RSI 33 · price 83,558.98
Lower-high/lower-low chain; Asian range broken to the downside.
The London peak at 85,076 gave way to a lower-high sell-off through NY. The break of the Asian low at 83,609 extended across the 14:00 UTC UoM window to a session low at 83,064, sweeping the prior low at 83,240. RSI(14) near 33 with price below both EMAs; the hot US data run and a firm USD frame the pressure.
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the asian low at 83,609 would turn the range break into a false break
A rebound that stalls at the fib 38.2 near 83,833 keeps the lower-high trendline intact
Close above the 84,466 lower high breaks the NY-session downtrend structure
Failure to hold the session low at 83,064 exposes the 83,000 round number; holding above the prior low at 83,240 keeps the sweep read
Fed's Hammack at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
14:04 UTC
Downtrend off the session high, momentum soft · RSI 34 · price 83,837.67
False break above Asian high, then lower highs and a new NY low below the London low.
London's push through the Asian range high to the 85,076 session high failed. The sell-off has since printed a lower high at 84,466 and a new NY low at 83,437, undercutting the London low, as hot US data and a firm USD weigh. Price sits below both EMAs with RSI(14) near 34, and the 84,000 round number is the first cap on the bounce.
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 84,466 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence off the session high
Failure to hold the 83,437 NY low opens the prior low at 83,240
Reclaim of the 83,609 London low would signal the NY breakdown is losing traction
UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC, printing into the current bar, could materially shift this read; Hammack at 18:00 UTC is the next risk
Lower highs off the 85076 session high, back at the Asian range floor.
London cleared the asian high at 84710 and tagged a session high of 85076, then failed back inside the range. The unwind has since printed a lower high at 84466 as hot US data keeps yields and USD firm. Price has retraced about 87% of the London rally to sit near the 83690 swing low, below both EMAs with RSI(14) near 40, heading into UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC.
Support: 83,690.00, 83,609.00, 83,240.00
Resistance: 84,466.00, 84,710.00, 85,076.00
What it said to watch
UoM 1y/5y inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC (17:00 broker) could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 83609 london low confirms a lower low and exposes the 83240 prior low
M15 close back above the 84466 lower high breaks the lower-highs sequence, putting the asian high back in play
Fed's Hammack at 18:00 UTC is a second rate-path risk into the NY afternoon
Failed London breakout above Asian high, now back inside Asian range with a lower-high sequence.
The London rally from the 83609 london low broke the 84710 asian high to a session high at 85076, then failed. Price has since retraced to the 78.6% fib, back inside the Asian range, after a NY lower high at 84466. RSI(14) sits near 41, and the 83773 ny low is the next reference below ahead of UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC.
Support: 83,773.00, 83,609.00
Resistance: 84,466.00, 84,710.00, 85,076.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 83773 ny low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 83609 london low
Recovery above the 84466 lower high breaks the NY lower-high trendline
Reclaim of the 84710 asian high needed to revive the London rally structure
UoM 1y/5y inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC (about 30 min) could materially shift this read; Hammack at 18:00 UTC follows
False break above Asian high, mid-range consolidation.
London swept the Asian low to 83,609, then rallied through the 84,710 Asian high to an 85,076 session high. That break failed and price fell back to an 83,773 spike low. Price has since held a 84,220–84,466 range around 50% of the London rally fib, RSI(14) neutral near 51, as this week's hot US data weighs ahead of NY.
What it said to watch
UoM sentiment and inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could break the 84,220–84,466 range either way
M15 close above the 84,466 range top reopens the 84,710 Asian high, then the 85,076 session high
Failure to hold the 84,220 range base exposes the 83,773 spike low and 83,609 London low
Fed's Hammack at 18:00 UTC could shift the rates read behind the move
13:06 UTC
Two-way, fading from session high · RSI 43 · price 84,244.22
Back inside Asian range after failed London breakout; lower highs since 85,076.
London opened by probing below the Asian range to the london low at 83,609. It then ran through the asian high to a session high at 85,076, but that break failed and price rotated back into the range. The mixed durables print (ex-transport miss) spiked price to a data low at 83,773, beyond the 78.6% retracement of the london leg fib. That dip was bought back above the pre-data low, and price now sits mid-range near the 61.8% level with RSI(14) in the low 40s.
What it said to watch
UoM sentiment and inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC (1y f/c 4.6%) could break the current range; Hammack speaks at 18:00 UTC
Failure to hold the 84,096 pre-data low reopens the 83,773 data low; a break of that exposes the 83,609 london low
M15 close above the 84,464 swing high puts the 84,710 asian high back in play; the 85,076 session high caps the false break
Holding the 61.8% of the london leg fib (~84,170) keeps the spike-and-recover structure intact
12:47 UTC
Intraday range after failed breakout · RSI 48 · price 84,324.14
Failed break of Asian high, back mid-range below 85076.
London swept below the Asian low to the 83609 london low, then ran through the 84710 asian high to an 85076 session high. That break failed, and price is back inside the Asian range near the 50% of the london rally fib. A 12:15 UTC spike to the 83773 spike low was bought quickly ahead of mixed durables. Price sits at 84324 between EMA20 and EMA50, with RSI(14) at about 48 and ATR near 27000 pips.
Support: 84,220.00, 83,773.00, 83,609.00
Resistance: 84,436.00, 84,710.00, 85,076.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 84436 rebound high reopens the 84710 asian high, with the 85076 session high above
Loss of the 84220 micro low exposes the 83773 spike low, then the 83609 london low
UoM 1y/5y inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC and Hammack at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read via USD and yields
False break above Asian high; price back inside the 83,784–84,710 Asian range.
London dipped to a 83,609 london low, then broke the 84,710 asian high to an 85,076 session high, but the move failed and price slid back into the Asian range. During the London-NY transition price swept the 83,784 asian low and was bought back to the 50% of the London leg. It now sits between the ema50 near 84,260 and the ema20 near 84,410, with RSI(14) neutral at ~49 against a firm-USD backdrop after a week of hot US data.
What it said to watch
Durable Goods (12:30 UTC) and UoM inflation expectations (14:00 UTC, 1y f/c 4.6%) could materially shift this read; a hot print extends the firm-USD headwind
M15 close below the 83,784 asian low exposes the london low at 83,609 and breaks the higher-low sequence
Reclaim of the ema20 and a hold above the 84,710 asian high would negate the false break; 85,076 session high is the cap above
Fed's Hammack at 18:00 UTC is a secondary risk for NY-session range extension
False break above Asian high, back inside Asian range.
London broke the Asian high at 84,710 and printed a session high at 85,076, then reversed in four bars. Price is back inside the Asian range and has slipped below the 61.8% fib of the London leg near 84,170. It sits just above the 84,000 psych level heading into US Durable Goods, with a firm-USD backdrop after a week of hot US data.
What it said to watch
Durable Goods (12:30 UTC) and UoM 1y inflation expectations (14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
Loss of the 84,000 psych level exposes the asian low at 83,784 and the london low at 83,609
A move back above the asian high at 84,710 negates the false break, with the session high at 85,076 next above
London trendline from the 83,609 low has broken, so the London higher-low chain no longer holds
Hammack at 18:00 UTC is a later risk for USD tone
12:04 UTC
Intraday uptrend from London low, pulling back · RSI 54 · price 84,513.93
Higher lows from 83,609; false break above Asian high reversed.
The London open dipped below the Asian range to the london low at 83,609, then rallied through the asian high at 84,710 and prior NY highs to a session high of 85,076. Rejection from there pulled price back inside the Asian range. The pullback now sits on the 38.2% fib of the London rally near 84,515, with ema20 just below at ~84,445 and the swing low at 84,240 intact. A firm-USD macro backdrop from this week's hot US data sits behind the capped extension.
What it said to watch
Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC, about 30 min out: core capex vs 0.5% f/c could expand the range via USD and yields
M15 close back above the asian high at 84,710 reopens the session high at 85,076
Loss of ema20 and the 84,240 swing low breaks the HL chain from the London low
Break below the london low at 83,609 would put a lower-low on the chart
UoM 1y inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC (f/c 4.6%) could materially shift this read
Higher lows from London open; failed hold above prior high.
London dipped under the Asian low to a session low at 83,609, then ran through the Asian high and the prior high at 84,749 to a session high of 85,076. Within two bars the move was rejected, and price is back under 84,749, near the 38.2% of the London leg fib. The firm-USD macro tape leaves BTC sensitive to today's US data.
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the prior high at 84,749 would negate the false break and put 85,076 session high back in play
Loss of the ema20 (~84,430) and the swing low at 84,240 on the London rising line would open the London leg fib 61.8% near 84,170
Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
11:32 UTC
Uptrend off the London low, momentum pausing · RSI 63 · price 84,740.68
Higher lows since 07:00 UTC; breakout above the 84,700–84,750 prior high cluster now being retested after a rejection at 85,076.
The London rally off the 83,609 session low cleared the 84,700–84,750 prior high cluster and tagged 85,076, then met rejection at the session high just above 85,000 psych. Price is back retesting the prior high near 84,710 with RSI(14) near 63, and the rising trendline from the 07:00 UTC low is intact. The leg came as USD eased off 101.40 and yields softened into Friday.
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 84,710 prior high turns the breakout into a false break and exposes the 50% london rally fib near 84,340 and the 84,240 swing low
Acceptance above 85,000 psych and the 85,076 session high extends the higher-high sequence
Break of the rising trendline from the 07:00 UTC session low ends the higher-low chain
Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC land around the NY open and could materially shift this read
London swept below the Asian range to 83609, then built higher lows at 84240 into a breakout through the Asian high (84710) and yesterday's 84749 prior high. The move extended through Williams' remarks and is now pressing the 85076 session high above the 85000 psych level, with RSI(14) near 73, hot but not extreme.
Support: 85,000.00, 84,748.67, 84,240.23
Resistance: 85,076.31
What it said to watch
Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read, with a hot print adding USD pressure
A move back below 85000 psych and the 84749 prior high would turn the breakout into a false break
A break of the rising lows trendline and the 84240 swing low would end the London higher-low sequence
A clean extension above the 85076 session high keeps the breakout leg intact
London lifted BTC off the 83,609 london low into the 84,700–84,750 range top, which has now capped four times in 24h, most recently at 84,733 after a rejection following Williams' 09:15 UTC remarks. The pullback held a higher low at 84,240, near the fib 38.2 of the London leg, and RSI(14) sits at ~61, so price is pressing the top again despite the firm-USD macro tone.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 84,740 range top opens the 85,000 round number
Loss of the fib 38.2 at 84,303 and the 84,240 higher low breaks the London HL trendline
Break below the 83,609 london low returns price to the lower half of the 24h range
Durables at 12:30 UTC and UoM 1y inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
10:48 UTC
Range-bound, intraday recovery into range top · RSI 64 · price 84,637.79
London sweep of Asian lows, V-recovery, higher low at 84240, testing 84700–84750 highs.
London open swept below the Asian lows to the 83609 london low, then reversed. The London leg printed a higher low at 84240 and now presses the 84710 asia high / 84749 ny high cluster that has capped price three times in 24h. RSI(14) is near 64, and a firm-USD macro tape remains a mild headwind.
Support: 84,240.23, 84,005.49, 83,608.92
Resistance: 84,709.71, 84,748.67, 85,000.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 84749 ny high breaks the 24h range top, with 85000 psych next
Loss of the 84240 higher low exposes the 84005 swing low and weakens the recovery structure
Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and UoM 1y inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could shift this read; hot prints extend the firm-USD headwind
10:32 UTC
Intraday recovery, pressing range top · RSI 62 · price 84,608.82
Higher lows off the London low into a 84,700–84,750 resistance band.
London open swept below the asian low at 83,783.73 to a london low of 83,608.92. The London leg higher then built a higher low at 84,240.23 on the pullback after Williams, and late London is now back at 84,608, just under the 84,709.71 asian high. RSI(14) sits near 62, and the 84,700–84,750 band, which includes the 84,748.67 24h high, has capped price four times since yesterday's NY session. There is no BTC-specific driver; firm US data remains the backdrop.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 84,748.67 24h high clears the band that has capped price since yesterday's NY session
Another rejection at the 84,709.71 asian high keeps the 24h range intact
Loss of the 84,240.23 higher low breaks the London leg structure and exposes the asian low and london low
Durable Goods (12:30 UTC) and UoM 1y inflation expectations (14:00 UTC) around the NY open could materially shift this read
10:17 UTC
Range-bound, higher lows since London open · RSI 57 · price 84,354.10
24h range capped at 84700–84750; London false break below Asian low reversed into higher lows.
London open broke the asian low at 83909 and ran to 83609, a false break that reversed straight back up to the 84699 session high around Williams' 09:15 UTC remarks, where it met rejection. That 84700–84750 area has now capped four times in 24h, prior high 84749. Mid-London, price is pulling back toward the rising trendline and 84240 swing low, just above the 38.2% of the London-low leg fib near 84282.
Support: 84,240.23, 83,908.59, 83,608.92
Resistance: 84,698.72, 84,748.67
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 84749 prior high breaks the 24h range top
Loss of the 84240 swing low and rising trendline exposes the asian low at 83909
A break back below the 83609 london low negates the false-break reversal
Durable Goods 12:30 UTC and UoM inflation expectations 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
10:04 UTC
Range-bound, London rebound stalling at the top · RSI 61 · price 84,419.03
83,600–84,750 range; higher lows since London open, capped at range top.
London open dipped below the Asian range to the 83,609 london low. A higher-low sequence then lifted price back to 84,699, where the range top has now rejected four times since Thursday's NY session. Price is easing toward the 84,283 fib 38.2, with RSI(14) near 61, as a week of hot US data keeps a firm-USD headwind in place ahead of Durables.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 84,749 prior high breaks the range top that has capped since Thursday
Loss of the 84,140 swing low breaks the London higher-low chain and exposes the 83,609 london low
Holding the 84,283 fib 38.2 keeps the London leg intact below the range top
Durable Goods 12:30 UTC and UoM inflation expectations 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
09:48 UTC
Range-bound, London upswing stalling · RSI 60 · price 84,460.99
83,610–84,750 range with higher low; range top capped four times.
London lifted BTC about 1,090 off the 83,609 Asian low to 84,699, where the 09:30 UTC bar printed a rejection under the range top. That is the fourth failure in the 84,700–84,749 NY high zone in 24h. RSI(14) sits near 60 with price above both EMAs, against a firm-USD backdrop after a week of hot US data.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 84,749 NY high breaks the range top and ends the four-test cap
Loss of the 84,139 minor low puts the 50% of the London leg (~84,150) behind price and reopens the 83,609 Asian low
Break of the 83,609 Asian low undoes the higher low and exposes the 83,240 swing low from yesterday's NY session
Durable Goods (12:30 UTC) and UoM inflation expectations (14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
09:32 UTC
Intraday uptrend since London open, pressing range top · RSI 63 · price 84,680.74
Higher-low chain off the London low, testing Asian high and prior high.
London opened with a sweep below the Asian range to the 83,609 london low. A steady rising lows climb since then has carried BTC back to the 84,710 asian high, just under yesterday's 84,749 prior high, despite the firm-USD backdrop after a week of hot US data. RSI(14) at 63 is not stretched, and the 38.2% fib of the london rally at 84,276 is the first pullback reference.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 84,749 prior high clears the 24h range top; 85,000 round number next overhead
Rejection at the asian high / prior high cluster with a close back below the 38.2% fib at 84,276 points to a deeper retrace of the london rally
Failure to hold the 84,139 higher low breaks the rising lows chain
Loss of the 83,609 london low reopens yesterday's 83,240 NY-session low
US Durable Goods 12:30 UTC and UoM inflation expectations 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read via USD and yields
09:17 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher lows since London open · RSI 61 · price 84,450.00
False break of Asian low, HH/HL chain inside 83,240–84,750 range.
London open broke below the Asian low at 83,784 to a London low of 83,609, then reversed. The rebound built a higher-low chain to a London high of 84,588, retracing about 78% of the Asian-session decline from 84,710. Price is capped under the Asian high and the prior high at 84,749, with RSI(14) near 61 and no extreme, against a firm-USD macro backdrop with no BTC-specific driver.
What it said to watch
Rejection at the 84,588 London high keeps price inside the 24h range
M15 close above the 84,710 Asian high and the 84,749 prior high breaks the range top
Loss of the 84,139 higher low breaks the London trendline and the HH/HL chain, putting the 83,609 London low back in focus
Williams (09:15 UTC), Durable Goods (12:30 UTC) and UoM inflation expectations (14:00 UTC) could shift this read via USD and yields
09:05 UTC
Range-bound, recovering off London low · RSI 55 · price 84,297.17
Higher lows since London open inside 83600–84750 day range.
Early London: BTC bounced off the 83609 London low with higher lows and pushed to a session high at 84359, near the 61.8% fib of the 84710–83609 Asian decline. The 83600–84750 day range holds, with a flat range top from 84749 to the 84710 Asian high overhead. Softer oil and yields overnight took some pressure off, and there is no BTC-specific news.
Support: 84,000.00, 83,608.92
Resistance: 84,359.10, 84,709.71
What it said to watch
Close back below the 84000 round number puts the 83609 London low back in play
Acceptance above the 84359 session high and 61.8% fib opens a test of the 84710 Asian high / range top
Williams 09:15 UTC, Durables 12:30 UTC and UoM inflation expectations 14:00 UTC could shift the read via USD and yields
08:32 UTC
Rebounding inside 24h range · RSI 59 · price 84,283.18
London low swept, Asian lower-high chain broken.
Asia faded from the 84,710 Asian high into a London-open sweep of 83,609. The 08:15 bar reclaimed 84,280, the 61.8% fib of that leg, and broke the Asian lower-high chain; RSI(14) is near 59. With no BTC-specific news, the firm-USD macro tape frames the move into Williams at 09:15 UTC.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 84,359 London high clears the fib 61.8% and puts the 84,710 Asian high and 84,749 24h high in view
Failure to hold the 84,000 round number reopens the 83,609 London low
Williams 09:15 UTC, Durables 12:30 UTC and UoM inflation expectations 14:00 UTC could shift USD and this read
08:17 UTC
Intraday downtrend from Asia high, bouncing off London low · RSI 51 · price 84,010.48
Lower highs since Asia high; London open false break of Asian low, higher low at 83752.
Asia faded from the 84,710 Asia high in a chain of lower highs. The London open pushed below the Asian low to 83,609 and was reclaimed quickly, printing a higher low at 83,752. Price is back near 84,010 at the 38.2% fib of the drop, pressing the descending line, with lower highs around 84,200 overhead; the firm-USD macro tape remains a mild headwind.
What it said to watch
A close above 84,200 (lower highs, near the 50% fib) breaks the Asia lower-high sequence and puts the 84,710 Asia high back in view
Loss of the 83,752 higher low reopens the 83,609 London low
Thursday's 84,749 prior high caps the 24h range; a double top sits there with the Asia high
Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC and Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC could shift this read through USD and yields
08:04 UTC
Downtrend since Asia high, bouncing off session low · RSI 42 · price 83,915.59
Lower highs and lower lows from 84710 into London open.
Asia stalled at 84710, just under yesterday's 84735–84750 prior high, and has since stepped lower through a swing high at 84200 to a session low of 83609 at London open. Price is holding a modest bounce below the 83962 lower high and EMA20, with a firm USD after hawkish Fedspeak and strong US data as the backdrop.
Support: 83,608.92, 83,240.33, 82,801.81
Resistance: 83,961.54, 84,200.27
What it said to watch
A close above the 83962 lower high and the falling trendline breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 84200 swing high back in focus
Failure to hold the 83609 session low extends the downtrend toward yesterday's 83240 spike low, then the 82802 prior low
A return to the 84700–84750 prior high would test the level that has rejected price three times
Williams at 09:15 UTC, durables at 12:30 UTC and UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
LH/LL chain; 83,900–84,200 range floor broken, bounce capped at 83,962.
Lower highs from the 84,710 prior high have ground price through the 83,900–84,200 range floor to a 83,609 swing low. The bounce stalled at the 83,962 lower high under the falling trendline. RSI(14) sits near 40, and the week's hot US PMI and claims prints remain a mild headwind.
What it said to watch
Close below the 83,609 swing low extends the lower-low chain toward the 83,240 spike low; 82,802 window low beyond
Recovery above the 83,962 lower high and the falling trendline breaks the sequence; fib 50% at 84,159 next, 84,710 prior high above
Williams 09:15 UTC, Durables 12:30 UTC and UoM inflation expectations 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
07:32 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since Asia · RSI 47 · price 83,923.58
Lower-high sequence from the 84,710 Asian high; London open swept below the Asian low, then reclaimed it.
London open broke the Asian low near 83,780 and dropped to 83,609 (london low), then snapped back to 83,920 in a false break. Lower highs from the 84,710 asian high still cap price, and the descending trendline plus the 84,000 round number sit just overhead. The week's hawkish US data run is a mild macro headwind.
What it said to watch
M15 close above 84,000 and the descending trendline breaks the lower-high sequence, putting the 84,200 lower high and the fib 50% near 84,160 in play
Failure to hold the 83,609 london low reopens yesterday's 83,240 ny spike low
Williams at 09:15 UTC, durables at 12:30 UTC and UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
07:17 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs through Asia · RSI 33 · price 83,705.82
LH/LL chain from 84,710; Asian range low broken at London open.
Asia faded from the 84,710 Asian high in a chain of lower highs, and the London open broke the asian low at 83,784 to a session low of 83,609, with RSI(14) near 33. Hawkish US data and a firm USD remain the macro headwind. Below sits yesterday's 83,240 swing low and the 82,802 24h low.
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 83,784 asian low turns the London break into a false break
Failure to hold the 83,609 session low exposes the 83,240 swing low
Reclaim of 84,000 psych and the 84,200 lower high breaks the Asia lower-highs trendline
Williams at 09:15 UTC, Durables at 12:30 UTC and UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
07:04 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since Asia · RSI 41 · price 83,904.60
LH/LL sequence off the Asian high, pressing the session low.
The Asian high at 84709.71 stalled just under yesterday's prior high at 84748.67. Since then the tape has printed lower highs, the latest at 84200.27, and lower lows into the London open, with price at 83904 just above the 83783.73 session low. The drift sits alongside a USD bid on this week's hawkish US data run, and RSI(14) is near 41, not stretched.
Support: 83,783.73, 83,718.80
Resistance: 84,200.27, 84,709.71, 84,748.67
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 83783.73 session low and the 83718.8 swing low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 83240 area
Recovery through the 84200.27 lower high, near the 38.2–50% fib of the Asian decline, breaks the descending trendline and neutralises the downtrend read
Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC, US durables at 12:30 UTC and UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
A retest of the asian high / prior high zone at 84709–84748 would put the rejection there back in focus
Lower highs and lower lows since Asia high; inside 83240–84750 range.
The Asia high at 84710 was rejected just under yesterday's NY prior high at 84750. Price has since stepped down in lower highs, latest at 84148, and printed a fresh session low at 83784 into the London open, trading below both EMAs with RSI(14) near 43. A hawkish US data run and a firm USD, per the digest, sit behind the soft tone.
Support: 83,783.73, 83,240.33, 82,801.81
Resistance: 84,148.33, 84,709.71
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 83784 session low exposes the 83240 NY spike low, then the 82802 day low
M15 close above the 84148 lower high and the descending trendline breaks the lower-high sequence
Retrace toward the Asia high / prior high cluster at 84710–84750 reopens the range-top read
Williams at 09:15 UTC, Durables at 12:30 UTC and UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
06:32 UTC
Sideways, fading after Asian high · RSI 43 · price 83,964.53
Tight range 83,820–84,220 with lower highs, below EMA20.
BTC was rejected at the 84,710 Asian high and has compressed into an 83,820–84,220 range into the London open, with lower highs under the range top and price below the EMA20 near 84,095. RSI(14) near 43 is neutral. Price sits just under the 38.2% fib of the 82,800–84,750 move, with the firm USD and yields after hot US PMIs and claims keeping BTC heavy.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 83,820 asian low exposes the 50% fib near 83,775 and the 83,720 swing low
M15 close above the 84,220 range top reopens the 84,710 asian high
Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC, US durables at 12:30 UTC and UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
06:17 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs off Asian peak · RSI 43 · price 83,955.54
Lower highs from 84710, compressing into 83910–84200 range above swing low.
The Asian session ran to an 84710 Asian high, just shy of yesterday's 84749 prior high, and was rejected. Price has since faded about $890 into an 83910–84200 range with a series of lower highs. The 06:00 UTC dip tagged 83819, matching the late-NY swing low near 83820. RSI(14) sits at 43 with price below both EMAs, and the hawkish run of US data is keeping macro a mild headwind heading into London open.
Support: 83,910.00, 83,820.00, 83,719.00
Resistance: 84,200.00, 84,710.00, 84,749.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 83820 swing low confirms a lower low and opens the 83719 prior low
Close back above the 84200 range top, near the fib 38.2% of the Asian drop, breaks the lower-highs trendline read
Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC could jolt yields and USD during London hours
Durables 12:30 UTC and UoM inflation expectations 14:00 UTC are the main macro risk to the range floor
Lower high at 84,710, then a tight 83,909–84,220 range since 03:00 UTC.
BTC was rejected at the 84,710 Asia high, a lower high under the 84,749 24h high, and has compressed since 03:00 UTC between the 83,909 Asia low and the 38.2% fib near 84,215. Lower highs cap each bounce. Price sits below EMA20/50 with RSI(14) near 42 heading into the London open, and this week's hot US data keeps the macro backdrop a mild headwind.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 83,909 Asia low exposes the 83,719 swing low
M15 close above the 38.2% fib at 84,215 breaks the lower-highs sequence
Reclaim of the 84,710 Asia high reopens the 84,749 24h high
Williams 09:15 UTC, Durables 12:30 UTC and UoM inflation expectations 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
05:48 UTC
Intraday range, drifting lower off Asia high · RSI 44 · price 84,142.34
Lower highs off 84710, flat floor near 83910.
Rejection at the 84710 asian high, just under Thursday's 84750 NY high, sent price back to the 61.8% of the overnight rally from the 83823 swing low. Late Asia is compressing between a lower high at 84220 and a flat asian low at 83909, with price pinned just under EMA20 and hawkish US data still weighing on the tone.
Support: 83,908.59, 83,822.69
Resistance: 84,220.25, 84,709.71
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 83909 asian low exposes the 83823 swing low
Close above the 84220 lower high breaks the lower-highs sequence off 84710
London open (07:00 UTC) typically decides which side of the Asian range gives way
Williams 09:15 UTC, then Durables 12:30 UTC and UoM inflation expectations 14:00 UTC could shift this read
Lower highs above a flat 83908 Asian low, inside the 83720–84750 NY range.
Late Asia session: a rejection at the 84710 range top, just shy of Thursday's 84749 NY high, has left price in a tight 83910–84220 band under both EMAs, with RSI(14) near 41 and ATR around $185. Bounces are stalling at the fib 38.2 of the Asian drop (84215), and the asian low at 83908 has held twice going into London open. Hawkish US data leaves BTC exposed to rates.
Resistance: 84,215.00, 84,709.71
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 83908 asian low opens the 83720 swing low
M15 close above 84215 (fib 38.2) breaks the lower-high sequence toward the 84710 range top
Williams 09:15 UTC, US durables 12:30 UTC and UoM inflation expectations 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 84710 into a 83910–84220 box, late Asia.
The Asian session rally was rejected at the 84710 Asian high, just shy of the 84749 NY high, and price has faded into an 83910–84220 box under lower highs, sitting near the 78.6% of the overnight fib. The Asian low at 83910 held twice. RSI(14) is near 44 and price is below both EMAs, with the hawkish US data run a mild backdrop headwind.
Support: 83,910.00, 83,822.00
Resistance: 84,220.00, 84,710.00, 84,749.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 83910 Asian low exposes the 83822 swing low
Close above the 84220 range top breaks the lower-highs line and reopens 84710 Asian high / 84749 NY high
London open in ~2h may set a new session range
Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC; Durables at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
04:47 UTC
Intraday range, Asia leg fading · RSI 44 · price 84,134.35
Lower highs from 84710 Asia high, holding 83910 Asian low.
The Asia session rally was rejected at the 84710 Asian high, just short of yesterday's NY high at 84749. It then faded on lower highs to an 83910 Asian low that held twice. Price is bouncing back toward the 84220 lower high, below both EMAs with RSI(14) near 44. The backdrop is a firm USD on hawkish-Fed repricing heading into London open.
Support: 83,910.00, 83,823.00
Resistance: 84,220.00, 84,710.00, 84,749.00
What it said to watch
A close above the 84220 lower high breaks the Asia downtrend line and puts the 84710 Asian high back in play
Failure to hold the 83910 Asian low exposes the 83823 swing low from late NY
A reclaim of 84710–84749 (Asian high / NY high) would invalidate the rejection read
Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC and US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC could shift this read via USD and yields
04:32 UTC
Intraday downswing inside a 24h range · RSI 37 · price 84,004.49
Lower highs since the 84709 Asia high, pressing the session low.
The Asia session stalled at 84709, a third rejection just under Thursday's 84748 range top. Price has since slid into the Asian range floor, with a lower-high chain off 84220 and price sitting just above the 83908 session low, below both EMAs, RSI(14) ~37. Macro is a mild headwind, with strong US data and a firm USD keeping Fed pricing hawkish.
Resistance: 84,220.25, 84,500.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 83908 session low opens the 83822 swing low and the 83718 NY low
Reclaim of the 84220 lower high (fib 38.2% area) breaks the lower-high chain; 84500 round number is next
A push through the 84748 range top would end the range read
Fed's Williams 09:15 UTC, US durables 12:30 UTC and UoM inflation expectations 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 84710 session high, testing session low.
Late in the Asia session, BTC was rejected at the 84710 session high, just shy of yesterday's NY high at 84749. It has since retraced about 90% of the Asian rally, printing a lower high at 84220 and slipping below the 84000 psych level. Price now sits on the 83909 session low with RSI(14) near 39, not oversold, against a hawkish US-data backdrop.
Support: 83,908.59, 83,822.69, 83,240.33
Resistance: 84,000.00, 84,220.25, 84,709.71
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 83823 swing low extends the lower-low sequence from the session high
Failure at 83823 exposes the 83240 spike low from yesterday's NY reversal
Reclaim of 84000 psych and a break of the 84220 lower high neutralises the Asian fade
London open in about 3h may set the session low or extend the range
Williams 09:15 UTC, durables 12:30 UTC and UoM inflation expectations 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
04:04 UTC
Range-bound, short-term pullback from range top · RSI 41 · price 84,077.41
Third rejection at 84,700–84,750; retracing the Asia leg, below both EMAs.
The Asia session tagged 84,710, a third rejection of the 84,700–84,750 range top after Thursday's 84,734 and 84,749 highs. Price has since retraced ~70% of the Asia leg to 84,077, with RSI(14) at 41 and price below both EMAs. It is holding just above the 83,909 Asia low, with the 84,220 minor high capping the bounce.
What it said to watch
Break of the 83,909 Asia low exposes the 83,823 swing low and the 83,719 range low
Recovery above the 84,220 minor high re-opens the 84,710 Asia high
M15 close above the 84,749 range top invalidates the range read
Williams 09:15 UTC, Durables 12:30 UTC and UoM inflation expectations 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read after a week of hot US data
03:47 UTC
Intraday range, pulling back from range top · RSI 41 · price 84,042.45
Lower highs off the 84,710 Asia high inside a 83,820–84,750 range.
The Asia session pushed to an asia high at 84,710 but stalled under the prior high cluster at 84,733–84,749 from yesterday's NY session. It has since printed lower highs back to an 83,909 session low, sitting near the 78.6% of the 83,823–84,710 leg with RSI(14) near 41 and price below both EMAs. Hawkish US data and a firm USD are the only macro input.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 83,909 session low and the 83,823 swing low confirms a lower-low and a third failure at the range top
Recovery above the 84,220 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence and neutralises the Asia pullback; 84,710–84,749 prior high remains the range cap
Fed's Williams 09:15 UTC, US durables 12:30 UTC and UoM inflation expectations 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Asia rejection under range top; lower highs, testing late NY low zone.
The Asia session ran to 84,710 but was rejected just under Thursday's 84,749 NY high at the range top. It has since unwound the whole Asian gain, dropping through the 84,240 asia pivot and the 84,000 psych level. Price now sits about 85% into the 83,822–84,710 fib, just above the late NY low, with RSI(14) near 34 and a hawkish USD backdrop weighing.
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 84,000 psych and the 84,240 asia pivot would neutralise the breakdown
Loss of the 83,822 late NY low turns the 84,710 range top into a double-top-style failure and exposes the 83,240 ny swing low
Williams 09:15 UTC, durables 12:30 UTC and UoM inflation expectations 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower high at 84710 under 84749 day high; testing Asian low.
Late in the Asia session, price pushed to the 84710 Asian high but stalled just under the 84749 day high, then shed ~700 to the 84005 Asian low. Price now sits below EMA20/50, between the 50% and 61.8% fib of the 83719–84710 advance, with RSI(14) at 46. The week's hot US data is a mild macro headwind, and there is no BTC-specific news.
Support: 84,005.49, 83,822.69, 83,718.80
Resistance: 84,320.00, 84,709.71, 84,748.67
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 84005 Asian low exposes the 83823 swing low and the rising lows line
Loss of the 83719 prior low breaks the higher-low sequence since the NY session
Recovery above the 84320 breakdown area reopens the 84710 Asian high and 84749 day high
Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC, then Durables at 12:30 UTC and UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
03:03 UTC
Range, intraday momentum rolling over · RSI 44 · price 84,065.42
83,720–84,750 range since yesterday's NY session; Asia rally rejected under the prior high.
The Asia session rallied to a session high of 84,710 but stalled just under yesterday's NY prior high at 84,749. The last two bars broke back through the Asian low near 84,200 to a session low of 84,005, a deep retrace of the Asia leg past its 61.8% level. Price sits in the lower half of the range with RSI(14) at 44, while this week's hot US data has kept BTC capped.
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 84,005 session low exposes the 83,823 swing low and then the 83,720 range low
M15 close back above the 84,200 Asian low returns price to the 84,710 session high and the prior-high range top
Williams at 09:15 UTC, durables at 12:30 UTC and UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Asian breakout above late-NY range retracing to breakout base; day range 82,802–84,749.
Asia session broke out of the late-NY range and ran to the 84,710 asian high, stalling just under Thursday's 84,749 prior high. A two-bar rejection has taken price back to the 84,250 asian base and the 50% fib of the ny low to asian high leg, with RSI(14) neutral near 49 and a hawkish US data run weighing on BTC.
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 84,198 swing low turns the Asian breakout into a false break and reopens the 83,823 ny low
Recovery through the 84,710 asian high and 84,749 prior high breaks the day's range top
Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC, then US durables at 12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
02:31 UTC
Higher lows since late NY, capped at range top · RSI 62 · price 84,520.92
HL chain pressing the top of the 82,802–84,749 day range.
Asia session is building higher lows off the 83,823 late NY low and the 84,198 swing low, but the latest push stalled with a rejection at the 84,710 session high, just under the 84,749 NY high. The day's range has held since London's flush to 82,802 against a firm USD backdrop, and RSI(14) near 62 shows no extreme.
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 84,749 NY high breaks the top of the day range
Failure to hold the 84,198 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and the trendline
A move below the 83,823 late NY low returns price to mid-range
Williams at 09:15 UTC, Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows since the late-NY low; Asia session testing the NY session top at 84,700–84,750.
The Asia session has built higher lows off the 83,823 NY low and is now testing the 84,700–84,750 prior high set during yesterday's NY session. RSI(14) sits near 66 and is not stretched. The firm-USD backdrop after hot PMIs and low claims has not capped this intraday grind so far.
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 84,749 prior high clears the NY session top and brings the 85,000 round number into view
A break below the 84,198 asian low undercuts the higher lows trendline and ends the Asia HL chain
A move back under the 83,823 ny low would reopen the lower half of the 24h range
Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC and Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
02:03 UTC
Recovering, higher lows under a flat cap · RSI 61 · price 84,436.01
Higher-low chain from 82802 compressing beneath 84644–84749 highs.
Asia session pushed to 84644, the asian high, and was rejected. The pullback held the 84198 asian low, near the 50% of the 83823–84644 asian leg, extending higher lows off the 82802 London low beneath the 84749 NY high. No BTC-specific driver in the feed; the macro backdrop is hawkish-USD after hot PMIs and firm claims.
Support: 84,198.27, 83,822.69
Resistance: 84,643.78, 84,748.67
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 84749 NY high breaks the cap on the higher-low sequence
Loss of the 84198 asian low and the higher lows trendline shifts focus to the 83823 swing low
Williams 09:15 UTC, Durables 12:30 UTC and UoM inflation expectations 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows from 83240 against lower highs from 84749; mid-range inside the Asian range.
Asia session pushed to an 84644 Asia high before a rejection faded price back to about 84330. The Asia low sits at 84198. Thursday's swings are compressing between higher lows off 83240 and lower highs from the 84749 prior high, with no fresh driver overnight beyond this week's hot US data.
Support: 84,198.27, 83,822.69
Resistance: 84,643.78, 84,748.67
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 84644 Asia high re-tests the lower highs line and the 84749 prior high
Loss of the 84198 Asia low exposes the higher lows line and the 83823 swing low
Fed's Williams (09:15 UTC) and US durables (12:30 UTC) could break the compression
01:17 UTC
Intraday uptrend, higher lows since late NY · RSI 65 · price 84,557.88
Asia breakout above late-NY range, HH/HL chain beneath NY high.
Asia session opened with a breakout from the late-NY 83820–84360 range off the asia base at 84247. Price is making higher lows from the 83823 swing low and printed a session high at 84644, still under the NY high at 84749 where two NY spikes were capped. The move comes despite a firm USD after strong claims, with RSI(14) near 65 and no extreme.
Support: 84,247.22, 83,822.69
Resistance: 84,643.78, 84,748.67
What it said to watch
M15 close above 84749 ny high clears Thursday's double cap from the NY session
Failure to hold 84247 asia base puts price back inside the prior range; below 83823 swing low ends the higher-low sequence
Fed's Williams (09:15 UTC), then durables and UoM inflation expectations later Friday, could materially shift this read
Rising lows from 82802 compressing under 84749; Asia-open breakout from 84220–84310 base.
Early Asia session: price lifted out of the 84220–84310 base at 00:00 UTC to a session high at 84555 and is holding just below it. Higher lows since yesterday's London low at 82802 (83240, 83719, 83823) define a rising trendline near 84045. The 84749 prior high capped twice during NY, and the 83719 pullback held near the 50% fib of the 82802–84749 leg.
Support: 84,247.00, 84,045.00, 83,823.00
Resistance: 84,555.00, 84,749.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 84749 prior high breaks the flat top that has capped since NY hours
Failure to hold the 84247 breakout level returns price to the overnight base and puts the trendline near 84045 in play
Break below the 83823 swing low ends the higher-low sequence
Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC, then durables and UoM inflation expectations later Friday, could shift this read on a hawkish-data backdrop
00:47 UTC
Recovering, higher lows since NY dip · RSI 58 · price 84,442.01
Asia range break above late-NY cap, below NY high.
Early in the Asia session, price broke the late-NY 84,020–84,360 range and the 84,495 prior high, tagging an Asia high of 84,555. It is now holding above the 84,247 Asia low with RSI(14) near 58. The NY high at 84,734–84,749, set after the London-open flush to 82,802 and the rebound following the firm US claims print, still caps, while rising lows from the 83,719 NY low and the 83,823 swing low remain intact.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 84,749 NY high clears the double-high cap from NY hours
Loss of the 84,247 Asia low puts price back inside the late-NY range
Break of the 83,823 swing low ends the rising-lows sequence
Williams at 09:15 UTC and Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
00:33 UTC
Range-bound, compressing after London selloff · RSI 59 · price 84,442.01
Higher lows under a lower-high cap; Asia pushed out of the late-NY band.
The London-open slide to 82802 was fully recovered through NY. Since then higher lows at 83240, 83719 and 83823 have formed under a descending cap from the 84749 day high, a compression the hawkish US data run has not broken. The first Asia bar lifted price out of the late-NY 84000–84360 band to a 84555 session high, and the current bar is easing back toward that band top.
Support: 83,822.69
Resistance: 84,554.88, 84,748.67
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 84749 day high breaks the lower-high cap
Loss of the 84360 band top puts price back inside the late-NY range
Break of the rising trendline and the 83823 higher low ends the compression read
Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC, just beyond this window, is the next macro input
00:17 UTC
Recovering, higher lows since NY whipsaw · RSI 59 · price 84,460.99
Late-NY range broken higher at Asia open, below day high.
Asia open lifted BTC off the 84,247 asia base, through the 84,495 NY-afternoon high to an 84,555 asia high. That extends the higher-low sequence from the 83,240 NY-hours low and continues the recovery from the 82,802 London flush, capped so far below the 84,749 day high. RSI(14) near 59, not stretched.
What it said to watch
A return below the 84,247 asia base puts price back inside the late-NY range and negates the range break
Acceptance above the 84,555 asia high exposes the 84,749 day high
Loss of the higher-lows trendline and the 83,823 swing low ends the higher-low sequence
Williams (09:15 UTC), durables (12:30 UTC) and UoM inflation expectations (14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
Lower highs and higher lows since the NY session high; early Asia.
London pushed above the Asian high to 84501, then unwound to the 82802 day low. NY recovered the whole leg to a 84749 session high, retested near 84734, before fading. Since then price has compressed between lower highs (84495 swing high, 84362 lower high) and higher lows (83719 ny low, 83823 swing low), holding the 84100 shelf into early Asia with RSI(14) flat near 51 and firm US data keeping rallies contained.
Support: 84,100.00, 83,823.00, 83,719.00
Resistance: 84,362.00, 84,495.00, 84,749.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 84362 lower high breaks the compression; the 84495 swing high is next
Loss of the 84100 shelf reopens the 83823 swing low and 83719 ny low, near the 50% fib of the london-ny leg
Session high at 84749 remains the ceiling of the day's range
Williams 09:15 UTC, durables 12:30 UTC and UoM inflation expectations 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read