19:07 UTC
Downtrend from Oct-2025 ATH, reversal attempt underway · RSI 63 · price 85,444.90
Double bottom 57.7k/60.0k, May-high neckline broken.
The downtrend from the 126,174 record in Oct 2025 based out in a double bottom at 60,039 (Feb) and 57,741 (Jun). This week's close at 85,445 clears the 82,670 May high neckline and holds above the W1 EMA(50) near 80,350 for a second straight week, the first sustained reclaim of the macro filter since November 2025, with price just above the 83,880 38.2% retracement of the ATH-to-cycle-low drop. There is no crypto-specific news; the backdrop is macro, with US 10y yields above 5% and a firm USD acting as a headwind into the 90,000 round number and the 97,710 Jan high.
What it said to watch
- A weekly close back below the 82,670 May high would turn the neckline break into a false break
- Loss of the W1 EMA(50) near 80,350 returns the regime to basing below the macro filter
- The double bottom read holds while price stays above the 66,900 base high of the Jun–Aug range
- A weekly close above the 90,000 round number opens the 97,710 Jan high and the 100,000 psych level at the 61.8% retracement
- ADP, GDP and PCE on Sep 30, plus Fed speakers Tuesday, could shift yields and the USD, the main macro channel for BTC