BTC/USD AI Live Scan, 1-hour chart, Tuesday, 27 October 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the BTC/USD 1-hour chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:05 UTC
Range-bound, rebounding from a higher low · RSI 66 · price 80,788.03
79,174–81,185 range since Saturday with rising lows; spike above sunday high rejected.
BTC has held a 79,174–81,185 range since Saturday, with lows stepping higher on Monday and at the 79,405 tuesday low along the rising-lows line. Tuesday's rebound ran from the London session through NY hours despite firm US durables and a bid dollar, lifting price back above EMA(20) and the 80,052 weekly open. The late-NY spike to the 81,185 week high failed back under the 80,955 sunday high, leaving price at the range top with RSI(14) near 66, short of overbought, ahead of the FOMC.
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 80,955 sunday high, then the 81,185 week high, would break the range top
Loss of EMA(20) near 80,360 exposes the 61.8% of Tuesday's impulse and the weekly open around 80,050–80,085
Break below the 79,405 tuesday low and the rising-lows line would end the higher-low sequence
FOMC decision Wed 18:00 UTC and the 18:30 UTC presser could materially shift this read, with Core PCE due Thu 12:30 UTC
22:05 UTC
Range-bound, short-term upswing into range top · RSI 67 · price 80,757.06
Higher lows inside a 79,170–81,185 range; lower-highs line broken Tuesday.
BTCUSD has held a 79,170–81,185 range since Friday. Lows have stepped higher from 79,285 on Monday to 79,405 on Tuesday, and the lower-highs line from Friday's 81,137 high gave way in Tuesday's London session. The rally ran through NY hours despite the Durable Goods beat and a firm USD, tagging a new week high at 81,185 before price slipped back under the 81,000 round number. RSI(14) is near 67, price sits above EMA(20) at about 80,350, and the 38.2% fib at 80,505 is the first gauge of how much of Tuesday's leg holds.
What it said to watch
An H1 close above the 81,185 week high would break the range top; failure to clear it keeps the late-NY spike as a rejection
Loss of the fib 38.2 at 80,505 and the ema20 near 80,350 points to a deeper retrace of Tuesday's leg
A break below the 79,405 higher low and its trendline reopens the 79,170 range floor
FOMC decision Wed 18:00 UTC with the presser at 18:30 UTC; hawkish-hold guidance could materially shift this read
21:09 UTC
Range-bound, higher lows building · RSI 60 · price 80,702.12
Higher lows since Saturday under a flat 80,730 cap.
BTC has held a 79,170–80,960 range since Saturday, with higher lows stepping up from the 79,174 swing low through Monday's 79,285 and the 79,405 tue low. The Tuesday rally started at the London-NY transition and carried through NY hours despite firm US data (Durable Goods 1.8% vs 0.6% f/c) and a bid USD, lifting price back above EMA20 near 80,262 with RSI(14) near 60. The 80,730 range cap has now been tested three times since Monday's NY session.
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 80,730 range cap opens the sunday high at 80,955, then the friday high at 81,367
Close back below ema20 at 80,262 returns price to mid-range; the Tuesday rally 50% retracement sits near 80,069
Break of the higher lows trendline and the 79,405 tue low would expose the 79,174 swing low
FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC (hold f/c 4%) and the 18:30 UTC presser tone could materially shift this read
Higher lows since Saturday; Tuesday rally cleared the lower-high line and is now testing the week high.
BTC has held a 79,170–80,955 range since Saturday. Lows have stepped higher (79,174 Sat, 79,285 Mon, 79,405 Tue), while highs from the 80,955 range top and the 80,851 sunday high faded into a lower-high sequence. Tuesday's rally off the 79,405 tuesday low built through the London-NY transition and NY session, clearing the lower-high line and EMA(20) despite the firm durable goods print. It is now pressing the 80,732 week high with RSI(14) near 68, with the ema20 sitting close to the 38.2% retracement of that leg and the weekly open at 80,052 just beneath.
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 80,732 week high exposes the 80,851 sunday high and the 80,955 range top
Rejection at the week high with a close back below the ema20 near 80,180 returns price to the middle of the range
A break of the weekly open at 80,052 and the 61.8% retracement near 79,910 undercuts Tuesday's leg
Loss of the 79,405 tuesday low breaks the higher-low line from Saturday
FOMC decision Wed 18:00 UTC (presser 18:30) could materially shift this read; a hawkish hold is the digest's base case
19:05 UTC
Sideways, range contracting · RSI 62 · price 80,567.27
Higher lows vs lower highs since Saturday's low.
Saturday's slide set the sat low at 79174. Lows have since stepped up to 79285 on Monday and the 79405 tue low, while highs faded from the 80954 sun high to the 80732 tue high, leaving a contracting range between a rising support line and a falling resistance line. Tuesday's NY-session push off the tue low came through the firm Durable Goods beat (1.8% vs 0.6% f/c) and lifted price back above EMA(20) near 80170, with RSI(14) in the low 60s. Price now sits at the 61.8% retracement of the Friday–Saturday drop near 80575, just under the falling resistance line.
Support: 80,170.00, 79,173.81
Resistance: 80,732.09, 81,442.31
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 80732 tue high and the falling resistance line breaks the contracting range, exposing the 80954 sun high and then the 81442 fri high
Failure to hold EMA(20) near 80170 returns price to the middle of the range
A break of the rising support line and the 79405 tue low would end the higher-low sequence and put the 79174 sat low back in focus
FOMC decision Wed 18:00 UTC and presser 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read; Thu 12:30 UTC Core PCE (f/c 0.3% m/m) adds follow-through risk
18:05 UTC
Sideways, range compressing · RSI 59 · price 80,375.48
Higher lows against lower highs since Saturday.
BTC has compressed between the 79,174 sat low and the 80,955 sun high. Dips have printed higher lows: Monday's Asia-session 79,285 and today's 79,405 tue low. Rallies have stalled on lower highs, with today's NY-session push rejected at the 80,732 tue high, a near-match of Monday's NY peak, as the US data slate firmed the dollar into Fed week. Price now sits back above the ema20 (~80,080), the weekly open (80,052) and the 50% retracement of the tue rally fib, with RSI(14) easing from the low 60s.
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 80,730 tue high breaks the lower highs line and opens the 80,955 sun high, with the 81,442 fri high above
Failure to hold the ema20 and 50% tue rally fib near 80,070 returns focus to the 79,405 tue low
Break below the higher lows line and the 79,405 tue low exposes the 79,174 sat low and ends the compression read
FOMC decision Wed 18:00 UTC, presser 18:30 UTC, could resolve the range either way given BTC's sensitivity to USD and yields
17:06 UTC
Sideways, short-term bounce into range resistance · RSI 62 · price 80,510.34
Converging range: lower highs since Sunday, higher lows since Saturday.
BTC has compressed since Saturday's 79174 swing low. Lower highs run from the 80955 range top through the 80728 Monday high, while higher lows have formed at 79285, 79365 and the 79405 Tuesday low. Tuesday's NY session lifted price back through EMA(20) near 80066 and into the lower-highs line at the 80594 session high, even with a firmer USD after the 1.8% durables beat. RSI(14) recovered to around 62 from the low 40s, and hourly ranges are near 400 points.
Support: 80,066.00, 79,405.00, 79,174.00
Resistance: 80,594.00, 80,728.00, 80,955.00
What it said to watch
An H1 close above the 80728 monday high breaks the lower-highs sequence and exposes the 80955 range top
Rejection at the 80594 session high and a slip back under ema20 (~80066) keeps the range mid in play
Failure to hold the 79405 tuesday low breaks the higher-lows line and puts the 79174 swing low back in focus
FOMC decision Wed 18:00 UTC and presser at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read via USD and yields
16:05 UTC
Range-bound after Friday's slide, pressing the upper half · RSI 60 · price 80,481.37
Converging range, lower highs from 80955 against higher lows from 79285.
Since the weekend low at 79174, BTC has held a narrowing range. Lower highs at the sunday high of 80955 and the monday high of 80728 have formed against higher lows at 79285 and the tuesday low of 79405. Tuesday's NY-session lift from the London low took price back above EMA(20) near 80010 and into the 50% retrace of the 81765–79174 decline, despite firm Durable Goods and a bid USD into Fed week. The session high at 80594 poked the lower-highs line but has not closed above it, and RSI(14) near 60 sits mid-cycle rather than stretched.
Support: 80,010.00, 79,173.81
Resistance: 80,594.24, 80,728.10, 80,954.85
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 80594 session high and the lower-highs line would break the converging range, with the monday high at 80728 and the 61.8% retrace near 80775 next
Slip back below EMA(20) near 80010 returns price to the middle of the range
Failure to hold the higher-lows line and the tuesday low at 79405 reopens the weekend low at 79174
FOMC decision Wed 18:00 UTC and the 18:30 UTC presser could materially shift this read; a hawkish hold is the digest's base case
15:05 UTC
Range-bound after Friday's drop, testing the upper half · RSI 57 · price 80,365.50
Contracting range: lower highs since Sunday, higher lows since Saturday.
BTC has been rotating inside a narrowing band since Friday's slide from 81765 to Saturday's 79174 swing low. Each rally since Sunday has stalled at a lower high (80955, 80851, 80728). Each dip has held above the rising support line from that low, and Tuesday's day low at 79405 printed the latest higher low. Price reclaimed EMA(20) near 79960 and the 80050 weekly open during NY-session swings around today's firm US data, and is now pressing the 80381 day high just under the fib 50% retracement of the drop, with RSI(14) holding the high 50s.
Support: 80,050.00, 79,173.81
Resistance: 80,381.48, 80,728.10
What it said to watch
H1 acceptance above the 80381 day high and the fib 50% at ~80470 would expose the 80728 lower high; a break there ends the lower-high sequence
Slipping back below the weekly open at 80050 and EMA(20) returns price to the lower half of the range
Failure to hold the 79405 day low and the rising support line opens a retest of the 79174 swing low
FOMC decision Wed 18:00 UTC and Powell's 18:30 presser could materially shift this read
Thu 12:30 UTC core PCE is a second macro risk for the range
14:05 UTC
Down from Friday high, now compressing · RSI 44 · price 79,855.06
Lower highs against higher lows, narrowing consolidation.
BTC has held below Friday's 81765 high since a late-NY selloff that ended in Saturday's 79174 swing low. Since Sunday's 80955 peak it has printed lower highs at the 80728 Monday high and the 80381 Tuesday high. Lows have stepped up from the 79285 Monday low to the 79406 Tuesday low, compressing price into a narrowing consolidation that sits around the 23.6% retracement of the Friday drop. Tuesday's spike on the firm durable goods print met rejection at the lower-highs line within the hour as USD held two-week highs, leaving price just under the ema20 and EMA(50) with RSI(14) near 44.
Support: 79,406.00, 79,285.00, 79,174.00
Resistance: 80,381.00, 80,728.00
What it said to watch
An H1 close above the lower-highs line and the 80381 Tuesday high breaks the compression and opens the path to the 80728 Monday high
Failure to hold the 79406 Tuesday low breaks the higher-lows line and exposes the 79285 Monday low and the 79174 swing low
A sustained hold above the ema20 with RSI(14) back over 50 would mark a shift in the intraday cycle
Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC today, then the FOMC decision Wed 18:00 UTC and the 18:30 UTC presser, could materially shift this read
Lower highs against higher lows, contracting range.
BTC has compressed since Saturday's flush to the 79174 swing low. Highs are stepping lower from the Sunday high at 80955 to the Monday high at 80728 and today's high at 80381, while lows are rising along a higher-lows line from 79285 through today's low at 79405. The durable-goods hour lifted price back above EMA(20) and EMA(50) to the 38.2% retracement of the Friday–Saturday drop near 80245, with RSI(14) recovering to 56 from around 41 earlier today, as price holds just above the 80000 round number while the dollar stays firm on a hawkish-hold lean into the Fed.
Support: 80,000.00, 79,173.81
Resistance: 80,381.48, 80,728.10, 80,954.85
What it said to watch
H1 close above today's high at 80381 breaks the lower-highs line and opens the Monday high at 80728
Sunday high at 80955 sits near the 61.8% of the Friday–Saturday drop; acceptance above it would end the lower-highs sequence
Loss of the 80000 round number and today's low at 79405 breaks the higher-lows line and exposes the 79174 swing low
Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC today and the Fed decision Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Contracting range, lower highs against higher lows.
BTCUSD has printed lower highs since Friday's 81,975 peak. The Saturday rebound stalled near the 61.8% retracement of the Fri–Sat decline, and Monday's NY-session mon high at 80,728 extended the sequence. On the downside, the 79,174 week low has held. The mon low at 79,285 and today's London low at 79,406 came in progressively higher, compressing price into a 79,400–80,050 band. Price sits just below a flattening EMA(20) with RSI(14) near 46, consistent with BTC tracking a firm USD as a risk proxy into Wednesday's Fed rather than starting a fresh impulse.
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 80,048 today high breaks the lower-highs line and brings the 80,271 asia high and the 80,728 mon high into play
Loss of the 79,406 today low breaks the higher-lows trendline, exposing the 79,285 mon low and the 79,174 week low
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC today could break the compression before the Fed
Fed decision Wed 18:00 UTC: guidance validating a December hike versus a vague or dovish statement could materially shift this read
Lower highs into a flat-to-rising base, range compressing.
BTCUSD has printed lower highs since Sunday's 80,955 peak, which stalled near the 61.8% retrace of the Friday–Saturday drop. A base of higher lows from the 79,285 sunday low held through Monday's NY sell-off and this morning's London dip to 79,405 (london low). Price sits on EMA(20) and just under the 80,052 weekly open, with RSI(14) near 47 and ranges narrowing as the USD firms into Wednesday's Fed.
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 79,285 sunday low breaks the higher-low base and puts the 79,174 sat low back in play
Reclaim of the weekly open at 80,052 and the 80,270 asia high would challenge the lower-high sequence toward the 80,728 monday high
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC today, then the Fed decision Wed 18:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
Since Friday's NY-session peak at 81975, BTCUSD has printed lower highs at 80955 on Sunday and the 80728 Monday high. Higher lows at the 79174 weekend low, the 79285 Monday low and the 79474 Tuesday low have compressed price between a falling resistance line and a rising support line, and the Sunday bounce stalled near the 61.8% fib of the Friday–Saturday drop. Price is below EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) near 46, and the Asian and early London sessions today drifted from the 80270 Tuesday high toward the lows as the USD firmed into Wednesday's Fed decision.
Support: 79,474.48, 79,284.69, 79,173.81
Resistance: 80,000.00, 80,728.10
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 79474 tuesday low and the rising support line near 79380 exposes the 79285 monday low and 79174 weekend low
Reclaim of the 80000 round number and the 80270 tuesday high breaks the falling resistance line and the lower-high sequence, with the 80728 monday high next
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC could break the narrowing range before the Fed
FOMC decision Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs since Sunday, lows holding 79285–79474.
Friday's slide from 81975 bottomed at Saturday's 79174 swing low, and Sunday's rebound stalled at 80955, close to the 61.8% retrace of that drop. Since then the lower-high line has capped price at 80851, the 80728 monday high and the 80271 tuesday high. Rising lows from the 79285 monday low to the 79474 tuesday low are squeezing price into a narrowing band below the 80052 weekly open. Price sits under both EMAs with RSI(14) near 46, in line with a third day of USD firmness ahead of the Fed and BTC tracking broad risk appetite.
Support: 79,474.00, 79,285.00, 79,174.00
Resistance: 80,052.00, 80,271.00, 80,728.00
What it said to watch
Hourly close below the 79474 tuesday low breaks the rising lows and exposes the 79285 monday low, then the 79174 swing low
Reclaiming the 80052 weekly open and the 80271 tuesday high would challenge the lower-high line near the 80728 monday high
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC during the NY session could break the compression
Fed decision Wed 18:00 UTC is the main event risk for this structure
Lower highs and higher lows compressing below EMA(20).
BTC has printed lower highs since Friday's NY-session peak at 81975. The impulse bottomed at the weekend low of 79174 on Saturday, and each bounce since has capped lower: Sunday's 80955 near the fib 61.8, then the 80728 monday high and the 80271 tuesday high. Lows have edged up from the 79285 monday low to the 79474 tuesday low in the Asia session, squeezing price into a narrowing consolidation below EMA(20) and EMA(50), with RSI(14) flat in the mid-40s. With no crypto-specific catalyst, the tape is tracking a firm USD into Wednesday's Fed.
Support: 79,474.48, 79,284.69, 79,173.81
Resistance: 80,270.60, 80,728.10, 80,954.85
What it said to watch
An H1 close above the lower-highs line and the 80271 tuesday high breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 80728 monday high back in play
A break of the higher-lows line and the 79285 monday low exposes the 79174 weekend low; a close below it resumes the downtrend
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC today could resolve the compression
The Fed decision on Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs since Friday over flat-to-rising lows near 79,200-79,500.
BTC has printed a run of lower highs since Friday's NY-session peak at 81,975. Rebounds stalled near the 50–61.8% retracement of the Friday-Saturday drop, then at the 80,728 Mon high and the 80,271 lower high, all along a descending lower-high line. Price is now testing the Tuesday Asia low at 79,477 below EMA(20) near 79,800 with RSI(14) in the high 30s, while the Sat low at 79,174 and Mon low at 79,285 form a rising lows line underneath. A firm USD into Wednesday's FOMC has capped each bounce, consistent with BTC trading as a risk and liquidity proxy.
What it said to watch
An H1 close below the 79,285 Mon low and the 79,174 Sat low breaks the rising lows line and confirms a lower-low
A reclaim of EMA(20) and a close above the 80,271 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC today could set pre-Fed risk tone
FOMC decision Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from Friday high, higher lows since Monday, compressing.
BTC has carried lower highs since Friday's 81975 peak. Sunday's rebound stalled at 80955, near the 61.8% retracement of the Friday-to-Saturday drop, and each later bounce has topped out lower: the monday high at 80728, then the asian high at 80270. Lows have firmed from the monday low at 79285 to today's asian low at 79536, coiling price into a tightening band below the weekly open at 80052 and EMA(20) near 79935, with RSI(14) flat around 48. The tape is tracking a USD that is firm for a third day on pre-FOMC short covering, with no crypto-specific catalyst.
Support: 79,536.41, 79,284.69, 79,173.81
Resistance: 80,051.84, 80,728.10
What it said to watch
Hourly close back above the weekly open (80052) and the asian high (80270) would break the lower-highs sequence
Failure to hold the asian low (79536) breaks the higher-lows line and exposes the monday low (79285) and saturday low (79174)
A move through the monday high (80728) would put the descending lower-highs line from Friday's peak under test
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC could break the compression
Fed decision Wed 18:00 UTC; December-hike guidance is the main risk to this read
Lower highs from 81,975 into a flat 79,170–79,540 base.
BTC has printed lower highs since Friday's 81,975 peak. The bounce off Saturday's 79,174 week low met rejection near the 61.8% retracement at 80,955, and Monday's NY-session spike faded from the 80,728 monday high. Lows have held a tighter shelf from the week low to the 79,285 monday low and today's 79,536 Asia session low, while Tuesday's 80,270 high stalled at the fib 38.2 (80,245) and price slipped back under the ema20 near 79,920 with RSI(14) around 39. There are no crypto-specific catalysts, so BTC is trading as a macro risk proxy, and the firmer USD into Wednesday's Fed decision has capped each rebound.
What it said to watch
Hourly close below the 79,174 week low turns the flat base into a fresh lower-low
Loss of the asia low at 79,536 puts the 79,285 monday low back in focus
Recovery above the ema20 and the 80,245 fib 38.2 eases pressure; a close above the 80,728 monday high breaks the lower highs line
Durable Goods 12:30 UTC today and the Fed statement Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read via USD and yields
04:05 UTC
Downtrend from Friday high, momentum fading into compression · RSI 40 · price 79,727.20
Lower highs from 80955 against rising lows from 79174; contracting range below EMA20.
BTC has traded lower since Friday's 81975 high in NY hours. The Saturday low at 79174 has held since, and price has compressed between lower highs (sunday high 80955, monday high 80728) and rising lows at the monday low 79285 and the Asia low 79540. Today's Asian session faded from the 80270 Asia high, which sits on the 38.2% retracement of the Friday–Saturday decline, back below EMA20 with RSI(14) near 40. The move tracks a firmer USD and rising yields into the Fed, with no BTC-specific driver in the feed.
Support: 79,540.00, 79,285.00, 79,174.00
Resistance: 80,270.00, 80,728.00, 80,955.00
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 79285 monday low breaks the rising-lows line and exposes the saturday low at 79174
Reclaim of the 80270 asia high and the 38.2% fib would ease the lower-high sequence; the 80728 monday high caps the lower-highs line
A push through the 80955 sunday high and 61.8% fib invalidates the downtrend read
Durable Goods 12:30 UTC and Consumer Confidence 14:00 UTC today, with the FOMC statement Wed 18:00 UTC, could break the compression either way
Lower highs pressing into rising lows, compressing around 80,000.
BTC has printed lower highs since Friday's 81,975 NY-session peak. Sunday's bounce stalled at the 61.8% retracement, and Monday's NY spike faded from the monday high at 80,728. Rising lows from the saturday low at 79,174 and the monday low at 79,285 have compressed price into a narrowing consolidation, now below EMA(20) and EMA(50), with RSI(14) near 45 after the asia high at 80,270 capped the latest rebound. A firmer USD into Fed week has kept the round number at 80,000 acting as a pivot, with the swing low at 79,614 the nearest reference beneath.
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 80,728 monday high and the lower-highs trendline would break the descending sequence
Failure at the 79,285 monday low, then the 79,174 saturday low, would break the rising lows and confirm a lower-low
Durable Goods Tue 12:30 UTC and the Fed decision Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
The dominant leg was Friday's NY-session slide from 81975 to Saturday's 79174 low. Sunday's rebound stalled at the fib 61.8% of that Friday leg near 80955. Since then, H1 has compressed between lower highs at 80955 and the 80728 Monday high, with higher lows building above the 79285 Monday low. Price sits just under EMA(20) and the weekly open with RSI(14) near 46, as USD short-covering into Fed week caps each bounce.
Support: 79,614.32, 79,284.69, 79,173.81
Resistance: 80,400.00, 80,728.10
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 80728 Monday high breaks the lower highs line and the compression read
Failure to hold the 79614 Asia low, then the 79285 Monday low, ends the higher lows sequence and exposes the 79174 Saturday low
Reclaiming EMA(20) and the 80400 weekly open would shift price back to the top half of the range
Durable Goods (12:30 UTC today) and the Fed statement (Wed 18:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
Lower highs and higher lows compressing below the 61.8% retrace.
BTC has printed lower highs since Friday's 81,975 NY-session peak, and Saturday's slide set the swing low at 79,174. Since then, lows have stepped up to 79,285 in Monday's Asia session and to a higher low at 79,614 late Monday. Highs at the 80,955 Sunday high (near the 61.8% retrace) and the 80,728 lower high, rejected in Monday's NY session, have faded, compressing price between converging trendlines. Price sits just above EMA(20) near 80,070 but under the EMA(50) / fib 38.2% confluence around 80,240, with RSI(14) flat near 47 as USD short-covering into Fed week caps rebounds.
What it said to watch
Hourly close above the lower-high trendline and 80,728 lower high breaks the compression; the 80,955 Sunday high is the next reference
Loss of the 79,614 higher low, then the 79,174 swing low, would resume the downtrend from Friday
Acceptance above the EMA(50) / fib 38.2% confluence near 80,240 shifts the read toward a deeper retrace of the Friday–Saturday drop
Durable Goods (Tue 12:30 UTC) and Consumer Confidence (14:00 UTC) could jolt USD and yields and break the range
FOMC decision and statement Wed 18:00 UTC is the main risk to this structure
00:05 UTC
Downtrend, compressing above base · RSI 46 · price 80,035.86
Lower highs since Friday over a 79,170–79,365 base.
Highs have stepped down from Friday's 81,975 friday high to Sunday's 80,955 lower high and Monday's 80,728, while base lows have held between the 79,174 weekend low and 79,285–79,365 on Monday. Price is pinned at EMA(20) near 80,050 with RSI(14) at 46, and rebounds keep stalling around the 50% level of the Friday–Saturday drop fib. Firmer USD into Wednesday's Fed decision has kept rallies capped, and Monday's NY low at 79,695 is the nearest reference below.
What it said to watch
Hourly close below the 79,285 monday low and 79,174 weekend low breaks the base lows and confirms a lower-low
Close above the 80,728 monday high clears the lower highs trendline; 80,955 lower high and then 81,975 friday high are the next references
Durable Goods Tue 12:30 UTC and the Fed statement Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read