Higher lows since Monday, double test of 81700 capped.
BTC has carved higher lows since Monday's 79285 week low. The Tuesday London-to-Wednesday rally from 79405 peaked at 81717 at Wednesday's London open, and the midday pullback held the 61.8% retracement at the 80300 pre-fomc low. The post-FOMC USD sell-the-fact lifted price back to 81703, where supply capped it just shy of the week high. Price has since slipped back below the 81500 prior shelf and sits just above ema20 near 80960, with RSI(14) at 55 cooling from the post-FOMC push.
Support: 80,960.00, 80,300.00, 79,285.00
Resistance: 81,500.00, 81,717.00
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 81717 week high breaks the double test and extends the higher-high sequence
Failure to hold ema20 near 80960 puts the higher-lows trendline and 80300 pre-fomc low back in focus
A break below 80300 (61.8% of the rally) undoes the higher-low structure and exposes the 79285 week low
Hourly closes back above the 81500 prior shelf would neutralise the post-FOMC rejection
Core PCE and GDP at 12:30 UTC Thu could materially shift this read via USD and yields
Higher lows since Monday, double rejection near 81,700.
Higher lows since Monday's 79,285 low, with the Tuesday London-session breakout off the 79,405 swing low carrying price to a 81,717 week high early Wednesday. The pre-FOMC dip found demand at 80,298, close to the 61.8% retrace of that leg. The in-line Fed hold and a less-hawkish-than-feared presser then lifted price back to 81,703 before supply capped it beneath the week high again, leaving price above EMA(20) near 80,980 with RSI(14) in the mid-50s.
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 81,717 week high breaks the two-touch rejection and opens the 82,000 round number
Loss of the 80,298 pre-Fed low would complete a double-top shape off 81,700 and break the higher-lows trendline
Sustained trade below EMA(20) near 80,980 shifts focus to the 61.8% retrace and rising trendline
A break of the 79,405 swing low unwinds the week's rally structure
Core PCE and GDP Thu 12:30 UTC (~14h) could materially shift this read
21:08 UTC
Uptrend since Tuesday, stalling below week high · RSI 56 · price 81,265.50
Breakout from 79300–80700 range, higher low at 80300, double rejection near 81700.
BTC held a range base near 79300 from Sunday into Tuesday, then broke higher through Tuesday's London and NY sessions to a week high at 81717 early Wednesday. Wednesday's pullback found a higher low at 80300, near the 61.8% retracement of the Tuesday leg. The FOMC hold at 4% (in line) and a softer USD lifted price back to 81703, but the presser faded it toward 81250, leaving price above ema20 with RSI(14) near 56 and a possible double top at the week high.
Support: 80,990.00, 80,300.00, 79,300.00
Resistance: 81,717.00
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 81717 week high clears the double-top risk and extends the breakout
Loss of ema20 near 80990 brings the 80300 higher low back into play
Break below the 80300 higher low invalidates the Tuesday breakout structure and reopens the range base near 79300
Core PCE and GDP Thu 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read via USD and yields
20:05 UTC
Uptrend, pressing week high · RSI 64 · price 81,620.11
Higher lows since Tue; pullback held near 61.8% fib.
Monday's grind lower ended at Tuesday's London-session low of 79,405. Since then H1 has printed higher lows, reaching an 81,717 week high at Wednesday's London open. The pullback from that high held at the 80,300 wed low, close to the 61.8% retracement of the leg. BTC then rallied through the Fed's in-line 4% hold and into the presser despite a firm USD read, clearing the 81,185 tuesday high and EMA(20) near 80,950, with RSI(14) at about 64.
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 81,717 week high opens the 82,000 round number
Slip back below the 81,185 tuesday high and EMA(20) near 80,950 would turn the FOMC move into a range read
Break of the 80,300 wed low and the rising higher-low trendline ends the sequence from 79,405
Powell presser tone and Thu 12:30 UTC core PCE/GDP could materially shift this read
Higher low at 61.8% retracement, capped below week high.
BTC broke out of Monday–Tuesday's 79,300–80,500 range during Tuesday's NY session, and the Tue-Wed rally ran to the 81,717 week high in Wednesday's London open hour. A ~1,400-point pullback through the London-NY transition stalled at 80,300 (the Wed low), near the 61.8% retracement and above the higher-lows trendline. The in-line Fed hold at 4% then spiked price to an 81,240 FOMC high before it settled back above EMA(20) near 80,790, with RSI(14) in the mid-50s as the Powell presser is still being digested.
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 81,240 FOMC high reopens the 81,717 week high
Failure to hold the 80,300 Wed low breaks the higher-lows trendline and exposes the 79,285 week low
Sustained trade back below EMA(20) near 80,790 would shift the read toward a deeper retracement of the rally
Powell presser underway now, then core PCE/GDP Thu 12:30 UTC (~17.5h), could materially shift this read
18:05 UTC
Recovery uptrend, pulled back after failed high · RSI 50 · price 80,794.02
Higher lows since Monday; Wednesday spike to week high rejected, pullback holding 61.8%.
BTC has built higher lows since Monday's Asia-session low at 79,285, and the Tuesday NY session drove the push through the weekly open to the 81,185 Tuesday high. Wednesday's London-open spike to the 81,717 week high failed. The NY-morning selloff then retraced about 58% of the week's rise to the 80,299 Wednesday low, where demand stepped in just above the 61.8% fib and near the ema50. Price now sits on EMA(20) around the 38.2% level with RSI(14) near 50, in pre-FOMC wait mode after hot US activity data.
What it said to watch
Fed decision at 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser at 18:30 UTC fall in the current bar; a dovish tilt against the hot PMI and durables backdrop could materially shift this read
H1 close back above the Tuesday high at 81,185 would reopen the 81,717 week high and negate the false break
Loss of the Wednesday low at 80,299 would break the higher-low trendline and expose the weekly open at 80,052
Repeated H1 closes below the ema50 near 80,510 would weaken the higher-low sequence
Thursday 12:30 UTC core PCE could confirm or reverse the post-FOMC move
17:06 UTC
Pullback within this week's range, momentum fading · RSI 41 · price 80,461.39
False break above Tuesday high; Tuesday impulse retracing to 61.8%.
Tuesday's rally from the 79,405 low extended to a week high of 81,717 at the London open. The push above the Tuesday high at 81,184 failed, and a roughly 600-dollar drop from 12:00 UTC took price back to the 61.8% fib near 80,300, breaking the rising Tuesday trendline. Price now trades below EMA(20) near 80,800 and just under EMA(50) around 80,550, with RSI(14) back near 41, in pre-Fed wait mode as hot US data keeps the USD firm and no BTC-specific news is in play.
What it said to watch
Fed decision at 18:00 UTC and presser at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 close below the 61.8% fib at 80,300 opens the path to the 80,000 round number, then the Tuesday low at 79,405
Reclaim of EMA20 near 80,800 and a close back above the Tuesday high at 81,184 would negate the false break at the week high
Thursday 12:30 UTC Core PCE as follow-through risk to any post-FOMC move
Breakout to 81,717 fully rejected; price back inside the weekend range.
BTC held a 79,285–80,955 range from Saturday into Tuesday morning. Tuesday's 79,405 higher low fed a NY-session breakout that reached a 81,717 week high in Wednesday's London session. That move was rejected into the London-NY transition, cutting through the rally line and dropping price below EMA(20) and EMA(50) to an 80,330 session low near the 61.8% fib, with RSI(14) back near 42 as hot US data leaves the tape in pre-FOMC wait mode.
What it said to watch
Fed decision at 18:00 UTC and the 18:30 UTC presser could materially shift this read
H1 closes back above the ema20 near 80,840 and the 80,955 range top would revive the breakout toward the week high
Loss of the 80,330 session low and the 80,000 round number returns price to the weekend range, with the 79,405 higher low next
Thursday 12:30 UTC core PCE could confirm or reverse any FOMC-driven move
False break above range top, back inside 79,285–80,955 range on rising lows.
BTC held a 79,285–80,955 range from Saturday into Tuesday morning, before Tuesday's NY session lifted it off the 79,406 Tue low and through the range top. Today's London-open push to the 81,717 week high met rejection, and NY hours dragged price back below the range top to an 80,330 Wed low near the 61.8% retracement of the Tue–Wed impulse. Price now sits on EMA(50) at ~80,560, under a flattening EMA(20) near 80,790, with RSI(14) back near 49 as the market positions for this evening's FOMC.
What it said to watch
An H1 close back above the 80,955 range top would neutralise the false break read and reopen the 81,717 week high
Failure to hold the 80,330 Wed low breaks the rising lows line and exposes the 79,406 Tue low, then the 79,285 week low
EMA(20) near 80,790 capping rebounds would confirm the rejection from the week high
Fed decision at 18:00 UTC and the 18:30 UTC press conference could materially shift this read; core PCE on Thursday at 12:30 UTC follows
14:05 UTC
Rising lows since Monday, sharp pullback from week high · RSI 45 · price 80,554.29
Higher lows intact; false break above 81,185 reversed to EMA(50).
Tuesday's NY-session rally off the 79,405 higher low cleared the 81,185 prior high and printed a week high at 81,717 around London open. The push was fully rejected: a ~600-point drop into the London-NY transition took price back below EMA(20) near 80,810, and RSI(14) fell from ~71 at the high to ~45. Price now sits on EMA(50) and the 50% retracement of the Tuesday–Wednesday leg near 80,560, with BTC in pre-FOMC limbo against a firm USD and no crypto-specific driver.
What it said to watch
H1 close below today low at 80,330, near the 61.8% fib, exposes the 80,000 round number
Break of the 79,405 higher low and the rising higher-lows trendline would end the week's rising structure
Recovery above EMA(20) and the 81,185 prior high would neutralise the false break at the week high
Fed decision 18:00 UTC and presser 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read; core PCE Thursday 12:30 UTC adds follow-up risk
13:07 UTC
Tuesday recovery stalled, pulling back from the week high · RSI 48 · price 80,671.16
Higher lows since Monday; false break above the Tue high has reversed.
BTC climbed from Tuesday's 79,406 low and spiked to a week high of 81,717 in the London session. The push above the Tue high at 81,185 failed, and the 12:00 UTC bar unwound to a day low of 80,607, breaking the Tuesday rally line. Price now sits below EMA(20) near 80,840, between the 38.2% and 50% retracement of the Tuesday rally, with RSI(14) back in the high-40s and EMA(50) near 80,450 still below. The pullback comes into Fed day: firm US data and a hawkish-hold base case in the macro digest are keeping risk appetite contained.
What it said to watch
The FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC and the presser at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read.
Failure to hold the day low at 80,607 and the Asia low at 80,518 (near the 50% retracement) exposes the weekly open around 80,052.
An H1 close back above EMA(20) and the Tue high at 81,185 would negate the false-break read and bring the week high at 81,717 back into focus.
Thursday 12:30 UTC Core PCE (MoM f/c 0.3%, YoY f/c 3.1%) is follow-through risk for the post-Fed structure.
12:05 UTC
Uptrend after range break, pulling back from week high · RSI 61 · price 81,261.51
Sat–Tue 79,200–80,950 range broken higher; higher lows since Tue.
BTC held a 79,200–80,950 range from Saturday through Tuesday morning. Tuesday's 79,405 low launched an impulse in the NY session that cleared the range top and the 81,185 Tue high, then spiked to the 81,717 week high at London open. Price is back near 81,260, around the 23.6% retracement of the Tuesday–Wednesday impulse, still above the tue high and EMA(20). RSI(14) has cooled to the low 60s, and a higher-low line from Wednesday's 80,518 swing low sits below price, with USD firm at two-week highs into tonight's FOMC.
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 81,185 tue high exposes the 80,955 range top and the higher-low line near 80,950
Failure to hold the 80,518 swing low breaks the higher-low sequence and undercuts the range break
H1 close above the 81,717 week high opens the 82,000 round number
Fed decision 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read; hawkish guidance has firmed USD into the meeting
Thu 12:30 UTC Core PCE (f/c 0.3% m/m, 3.1% y/y) is a second macro catalyst for risk mood
11:04 UTC
Uptrend since Tuesday, breaking out of the weekend range · RSI 66 · price 81,390.37
Higher lows off 79,405 and a range break above the 81,185 prior high.
BTC held a 79,170–80,950 range from Saturday through Monday. Tuesday's swing low at 79,405 started a higher-low sequence: the NY session lifted price to the 81,185 prior high, and London open today broke above it to a week high of 81,717. Price sits above EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) near 66, short of overbought, and the firm US data and hawkish-hold expectations into tonight's FOMC have not capped the move so far.
What it said to watch
An H1 close back below the 81,185 prior high would turn the range break into a false break
Loss of the rising trendline from 79,405, then the 80,518 higher low, would break the higher-low sequence
Acceptance above the 81,717 week high puts the 82,000 round number in play
Fed decision at 18:00 UTC and the presser at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Thursday 12:30 UTC Core PCE (f/c 0.3% m/m, 3.1% y/y) is follow-through risk
10:05 UTC
Uptrend from Tuesday low, extended into Fed · RSI 70 · price 81,469.28
Higher lows through Sat–Tue range, now trading above the 80,955 range top.
Saturday through Tuesday held a 79,170–80,955 range with a rising sequence of lows. The Tuesday low at 79,405 launched a NY-session advance that cleared the range top, even with USD near two-week highs after firm Durable Goods. The London open today extended to a week high at 81,717 before stalling, and the 80,518 swing low and the rally trendline mark the higher-low structure, with RSI(14) near 70 and EMA(20) at about 80,940 sitting on the old range top.
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 80,955 range top and EMA(20) would turn the breakout into a false break
Loss of the 80,518 swing low and the rally trendline breaks the higher-low sequence from the Tuesday low
H1 close above the 81,717 week high opens the 82,000 round number
FOMC decision 18:00 UTC and presser 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Thu 12:30 UTC Core PCE adds a second event risk after the Fed
09:06 UTC
Uptrend, fresh range break · RSI 69 · price 81,378.38
Higher lows since Tuesday's 79405 low; Sat–Tue range top cleared.
BTC spent Saturday through Tuesday morning boxed between roughly 79300 and the 80955 range top. The Tuesday rally then built higher lows off the 79405 low through the NY session. The early London push today cleared the 81184 prior high and tagged 81717 before giving back about 340, with RSI(14) near 69 and price well above a rising EMA(20). The break came against a firm USD at two-week highs into the FOMC, so the move sits on thin macro footing.
Support: 80,954.85, 80,518.33
Resistance: 81,717.01, 82,000.00
What it said to watch
Fed decision 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read; a hawkish hold is the digest's base case
H1 close back below the 81184 prior high would turn this morning's push into a possible false break
Loss of the 80955 range top and the higher-lows trendline puts the 80518 swing low and the 61.8% retracement near 80290 back in play
Clearing the 81717 wed high exposes the 82000 round number; RSI near 70 leaves little room before overbought
Thu 12:30 UTC Core PCE (f/c 0.3% m/m, 3.1% y/y) as follow-through risk after the Fed
08:04 UTC
Uptrend, range break holding · RSI 64 · price 81,019.78
Higher lows since Saturday; Tuesday break above the weekend range top.
BTC spent Saturday through Tuesday morning inside a 79,170–80,955 range, with each sell-off printing higher lows. Tuesday's impulse from 79,405 ran from London into NY, cleared the range top and set a week high at 81,185 late in the NY session. It came despite firm US durables and a stronger USD ahead of the Fed. Since then, dips have held the fib 38.2 near 80,505 and are finding EMA(20) around 80,780, with RSI(14) in the low-60s. Price now sits just above the prior high at 80,955 and below the 81,123 Asia high.
What it said to watch
Fed decision at 18:00 UTC and Powell presser at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 close back below the prior high at 80,955 and EMA20 near 80,780 puts the range break in question
Failure to hold the fib 38.2 near 80,505 would return price to the old range
Close above the 81,185 week high clears the Asia high cap and extends Tuesday's impulse
Thursday 12:30 UTC Core PCE is a second risk event for this structure
Higher lows since Tuesday's London session, lower high at 81,123 under the week high.
BTC held a 79,285–80,955 range from Saturday into Tuesday, absorbing Monday's Asia-session flush to the week low near the weekly open area. A London-led rally off Tuesday's 79,405 low carried through NY to the 81,185 week high before a wick rejection, and Wednesday's Asian push stalled at a lower high of 81,123. Price sits above EMA(20) with RSI(14) near 61, while firm US durables and a two-week DXY high keep the tape measured into today's FOMC.
What it said to watch
H1 close below the higher-lows trendline and the Wednesday low at 80,518 puts the Tuesday rally fib 50% at 80,295 in play
Failure at 80,295 exposes the weekly open at 80,052 and returns price to the range midpoint
H1 close above the 81,185 week high clears the lower high and confirms a range break
Fed decision at 18:00 UTC and press conference at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Range break from 79300–80450, higher lows, lower high in Asia.
BTC spent Monday and early Tuesday boxed in a 79300–80450 range. Twice it washed out near 79300, then turned up from 79405 during Tuesday's London session and cleared the range top into NY hours. The advance printed a week high at 81184.59 late Tuesday, but the Asia session's 81122.66 asia high came in as a lower high, and price has slipped back toward the sunday high zone near 80950. Price holds above EMA(20) and EMA(50), the Wednesday 01:00 UTC higher low at 80518 sits on the rising trendline, and RSI(14) has cooled to the high 50s. Firm US data and a two-week-high dollar frame a hawkish-leaning FOMC later today as the main macro risk.
Support: 80,518.33, 80,450.00
Resistance: 81,122.66, 81,184.59
What it said to watch
Hourly close below the 80518 higher low breaks the rising trendline and puts the 38.2% retracement near 80500 under test
Close back inside the range below the 80450 range top would turn the Tuesday breakout into a false break and expose the 80050 week open
Close above the 81184.59 week high would clear the Asia lower high and extend the uptrend structure
FOMC decision 18:00 UTC and Powell presser 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read, with Thursday 12:30 UTC Core PCE as follow-through risk
05:06 UTC
Recovering from range lows, stalling at the range top · RSI 61 · price 80,867.94
Higher lows off 79285, capped by the 80955–81185 range top.
BTC carved a triple bottom at 79285–79405, from Monday's Asia session into Tuesday's London morning. Tuesday's rally then ran through NY hours despite the firm Durable Goods beat (1.8% vs 0.6%), lifting price back above EMA(20) and EMA(50) and through the 80730 prior cap. The 81185 week high printed after NY close, and Wednesday's Asian session faded below it again, leaving the 80955 weekend high as the near-term lid with RSI(14) near 61 and the ema20 at ~80590 as the first pullback reference.
Support: 80,590.00
Resistance: 80,954.85, 81,184.59
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 81185 week high clears the range top and voids the rejection read
Failure to hold the 80730 prior cap and the ema20 near 80590 puts the 38.2% retracement of Tuesday's rally (~80505) in play
Break below the 79405 higher low undoes the triple bottom structure
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC and presser at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read; a hawkish hold with a firm USD is the digest's base case
04:05 UTC
Turning higher, range break in progress · RSI 67 · price 81,041.75
Higher lows under a 79,170–80,950 range; price now pressing above the range top.
BTC was capped in a 79,170–80,950 range from Saturday through Tuesday morning, with a run of higher lows at 79,285 and 79,405 showing dips being absorbed. Tuesday's NY-session rally from the 79,405 higher low cleared the range top even as US data ran firm. A spike to the 81,185 week high was rejected late Tuesday, but the Asia session has since pushed back above 81,000. Price sits above EMA(20) near 80,576, and RSI(14) around 67 is firm but short of overbought heading into Fed day.
What it said to watch
Hourly close back below the 80,955 range top would point to a false break and return price to the range
Clean break above the 81,185 week high extends the range break
EMA(20) near 80,576 is the first test of the Tuesday rally on any pullback
Failure to hold the 79,405 higher low breaks the rising-lows sequence
FOMC decision Wed 18:00 UTC and presser 18:30 UTC; a hawkish hold could materially shift this read
Thu 12:30 UTC Core PCE (f/c 0.3% MoM) is a follow-through risk
Higher lows since Tuesday; tight band beneath the week high.
BTC has built higher lows since Tuesday's 79,405 swing low. Tuesday's NY-session rally broke the weekend lower-highs line and printed a week high at 81,184, even with firm US durables and a stronger USD in the background. Price has since held an 80,500–81,040 band through the Asia session above EMA(20), with RSI(14) easing to about 60 and the 38.2% fib of the Tuesday leg near 80,505 lining up with the Asia low and the rising trendline.
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 80,505 38.2% fib and Asia low breaks the rising trendline and opens the 80,000 round number
Close above the 81,184 week high extends the Tuesday breakout; the 81,040 Asia high is the first cap
Loss of the 79,405 swing low would undo the higher-low sequence and the breakout read
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC today and the 18:30 UTC presser could materially shift this read; hawkish guidance is the digest's base case
02:04 UTC
Range with higher lows, pressing the top · RSI 63 · price 80,828.99
79170–80950 range since Saturday, lows stepping higher; range top tested.
BTC has held a 79170–80950 range since Saturday, with lows stepping up from 79174 to 79285 on Monday and the 79406 Tue low. Tuesday's London-session base turned into a steady climb through NY hours, despite the firm Durable Goods beat, lifting price back above the 80052 weekly open and EMA(20) near 80480. The late-Tuesday spike to the 81185 week high was rejected back under the 80955 range top, and price now holds just below it on a pullback low at 80518, with RSI(14) near 63.
Support: 80,518.33, 80,051.84, 79,405.55
Resistance: 80,954.85, 81,184.59
What it said to watch
An H1 close above the 80955 range top, then the 81185 week high, would mark a range break.
Failure to hold the 80518 pullback low and EMA(20) puts the 50% retracement of Tuesday's rally (~80295) and the weekly open at 80052 back in play.
A break of the higher-lows trendline and the 79406 Tue low would undo the rising-lows read inside the range.
FOMC decision Wed 18:00 UTC and the 18:30 UTC presser could materially shift this read; Thursday's Core PCE at 12:30 UTC is the follow-up risk.
01:06 UTC
Range with rising lows, upside momentum fading · RSI 57 · price 80,596.24
BTC has held a 79285–80955 range since Saturday's flush to 79174 was reclaimed. Dips into the Asia and NY sessions on Monday and Tuesday printed higher lows at 79285, 79365 and 79405. Tuesday's NY-session rally carried through the firm US durables print, and a late-NY spike to the 81185 week high was rejected back below the sunday high, a false break. Price now drifts at 80596, above the ema20 near 80420 and EMA(50) near 80270, with RSI(14) easing from the mid-60s to 57 ahead of the Fed.
Support: 80,420.00, 79,405.00, 79,285.00
Resistance: 80,955.00, 81,185.00
What it said to watch
Hourly close back above the 80955 sunday high reopens the 81185 week high
Loss of the ema20 near 80420 brings the 50–61.8% Tuesday rally fib zone (80295–80085) into view
Failure to hold the 79405 higher low breaks the higher-lows trendline; below 79285 range low the range read ends
FOMC decision Wed 18:00 UTC and presser 18:30 UTC, with a hawkish hold as the base case, could materially shift this read
Thu 12:30 UTC Core PCE (f/c 0.3% MoM) is the follow-through test after the Fed
Higher lows since Monday; lower-highs line broken Tue, stalling under 81,016–81,185.
Around the 80,052 weekly open, BTC has printed higher lows at 79,285, 79,365 and 79,406. The lower highs carried over from the weekend capped it until Tuesday's NY session broke that line, and the rally held despite the firm Durable Goods beat. Price sits above EMA(20) near 80,400 with RSI(14) at 64, but the late-Tuesday spike to the 81,185 tue high faded back under the 81,016 weekend high, keeping the 79,174–81,185 range intact.
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 81,185 tue high breaks the four-day range top; repeated failure under the 81,016 weekend high keeps the range read
Loss of EMA(20) at 80,400 and the 38.2% of the Tuesday rally fib near 80,505 shifts focus to the weekly open and 61.8% zone at 80,050–80,085
Break of the higher-lows line below the 79,406 swing low ends the rising-lows sequence
FOMC decision Wed 18:00 UTC and presser at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read; a hawkish hold is the digest's base case