False break above Wednesday highs reversed into a break of the week's range floor.
From the weekly open near 80,052, BTC built higher lows into the twin 81,717/81,703 Wednesday highs. Thursday's US data dump, with a GDP beat and sticky 3.1% core PCE, sparked a spike to an 81,893 week high that failed to hold. Later on Thursday a single bar sliced through Monday's 79,285 range floor to a 78,249 week low, and the rebound high at 79,716 stalled near the 38.2% retracement of the drop. Price now sits below EMA(20), around 80,050 just above the weekly open, with RSI(14) near 38.
What it said to watch
Hourly close back above the 79,285 range floor would turn Thursday's break into a false break
Failure to hold the 78,549 rebound low exposes the 78,249 week low and the 78,000 round number
A recovery into the weekly open / EMA(20) zone near 80,050 meets the 50% retracement of the Thursday drop
Fri ECI (f/c 0.8%) at 12:30 UTC and Daly/Musalem remarks could materially shift this read
Weekly range breakdown, first lower high at 79,716.
BTC rotated in a 79,300–81,900 range from Monday to Thursday. Supply capped three pushes into 81,700–81,900, the last on Thursday's run-up around the US data dump, where a GDP beat and sticky core PCE gave no dovish relief. That high met rejection, and a roughly 3,600-point flush late in the NY session broke the range floor near 79,285 and the rising line off the Monday and Wednesday lows, printing a week low at 78,249. The rebound stalled at the 79,716 bounce high near the 38.2% retrace of the flush, with price now below EMA(20) and EMA(50) and RSI(14) near 38.
What it said to watch
Hourly close back above the 79,285 range floor would turn the breakdown into a false break
Failure to hold the 78,249 week low extends the leg toward the 78,000 round number
Bounce high at 79,716 (38.2% of the flush) capping keeps the lower-high sequence intact; the week open at 80,052 sits near the 50% level
ECI (Fri 12:30 UTC), Chicago PMI and Daly/Musalem remarks could materially shift this read
Mon–Thu range 79,285–81,890 broken to downside; failed push at week high.
BTC held a 79,285–81,890 range from Monday's open, with the 81,700–81,890 area rejected three times: Wednesday's London session, after the Fed hold Wednesday evening, and Thursday's NY session. The NY rally that followed the 12:30 UTC GDP/PCE release pushed briefly above the prior top to a new week high and then reversed. The 20:00 UTC bar broke the range low and printed a 78,249 week low, leaving price below EMA(20), EMA(50) and the weekly open with RSI(14) near 33. The data mix of a GDP beat with sticky core PCE gave BTC no dovish relief.
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 79,285 range low would turn the breakdown into a false break
Rebounds failing below the weekly open at 80,183 (EMA(20) close by) and the 38.2% fib near 79,640 would keep the lower-high sequence intact
Failure to hold the 78,249 week low exposes the 78,000 round number
A move back through the week high at 81,890 would invalidate the breakdown read
ECI Fri 12:30 UTC (f/c 0.8%) and Daly/Musalem 16:00–16:30 UTC could materially shift this read
20:06 UTC
Two-way range with rising lows, momentum neutral · RSI 51 · price 80,671.16
Higher lows from 79,285; 81,700–81,900 caps highs, false break above.
BTC has traded a 79,285–81,893 range since Sunday's open, printing higher lows at 79,285, 79,405 and the 79,621 swing low, while the 81,700–81,900 area capped Wednesday's push, the post-Fed spike and today's move. The NY-session rally after the mixed US data dump (GDP beat, core PCE in line) set a new week high at 81,893 but could not hold above the 81,717 prior high, with RSI(14) peaking near 67 versus ~70 on Wednesday's high, a mild bearish divergence. Price has since faded to the 80,520 session low area near the 61.8% retracement of the NY rally, holding just above EMA(20) at ~80,625 and the 80,402 weekly open with RSI(14) back at 51.
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 81,000 round number and the 81,717 prior high would reopen a test of the 81,893 week high
Failure to hold the 80,520 session low and the 80,402 weekly open exposes the 79,621 swing low and the higher-lows trendline near 79,700
A break below the 79,621 swing low would end the higher-lows sequence and shift the read to range breakdown
Employment Cost Index (Fri 12:30 UTC, f/c 0.8%) and Fed's Daly/Musalem later Friday could materially shift this read
BTC has rotated inside a 79,300–81,900 range since Sunday's open. Supply capped the 81,700–81,900 zone twice on Wednesday, with the wed high at 81,717, and again on Thursday's NY-session spike to the 81,893 week high after the 12:30 UTC US data dump (GDP beat, core PCE in line), which faded within two bars. Price now sits at the 50% retracement of the 79,621–81,893 leg, just above EMA(20) near 80,625. RSI(14) has reset to ~50, and the 80,519 pullback low and the weekly open at 80,473 form the nearest floor.
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 38.2% fib at 81,025 reopens the wed high 81,717 and the week high 81,893
Failure to hold the weekly open at 80,473 exposes the Thursday low at 79,621 and rising support from Tuesday
A sustained break above 81,893 invalidates the range read
US ECI Fri 12:30 UTC and Fed's Daly/Musalem 16:00–16:30 UTC could materially shift this read
18:07 UTC
Range with rising lows, upside extension rejected · RSI 53 · price 80,790.03
BTC has rotated inside a roughly 79,300–81,900 range since Sunday evening. Swing lows stepped up Monday, Tuesday and in Thursday's Asia session, while Wednesday's post-Fed push stalled near 81,700 twice. After the mixed US data dump (GDP beat, core PCE in line), the rally into the NY session cleared the wed high by about $175 to a new week high at 81,893, then reversed sharply. Price is now back at the 50% retracement of the post-data leg, just above ema20 near 80,600, with RSI(14) eased to ~53.
What it said to watch
Hourly acceptance above the tue high at 81,185 and then the 81,717 wed high would undo the false-break read and put the 81,893 week high back in play
Hourly closes below ema20 near 80,600 and the 80,300 wed low would retrace most of the post-data leg toward the 61.8% level
A break of the rising lows line near the 79,620 thu low would end the higher-low sequence and return focus to the 79,285 week low
Friday's ECI (12:30 UTC, f/c 0.8%) and Fed's Daly/Musalem (16:00/16:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
BTC has rotated inside a roughly 79,300–81,900 range since Monday, with this week's swing lows stepping higher from 79,285 to 79,405 and then the 79,621 thu low. The NY session rally after Thursday's mixed US data dump pushed through the 81,700 prior high to a 81,893 week high. The 16:00 UTC bar then closed back near 81,190, a rejection that leaves the range top intact. Price holds above EMA(20) near 80,610 with RSI(14) in the mid-60s, and the digest flags no crypto-specific driver behind the move.
What it said to watch
An H1 close above the 81,893 week high would break the range top that the prior high has capped since Wednesday
Loss of the ema20 near 80,610 and the 50% Thu rally fib at 80,757 puts the 80,300 wed low back in play
A break of the 79,621 thu low and the rising lows trendline would end this week's higher-lows sequence
ECI (Fri 12:30 UTC) and Daly/Musalem Fedspeak from 16:00 UTC could materially shift this read
16:06 UTC
Range resolving higher, NY impulse into week high · RSI 71 · price 81,702.02
Higher lows from 79,285 into a break above the 81,700 prior highs, now retesting.
Since Sunday's open BTC has rotated inside a 79,285–81,717 band. Lows have stepped higher, and the early-Thursday Asia session drop from the 81,700 prior highs held near 79,620. The 12:30 UTC US data dump triggered a roughly 2,200-point NY session rally to a week high at 81,824, with the soft GDP price index offsetting in-line core PCE. Price now sits back on the 81,700 prior highs with RSI(14) near 71. The 38.2% fib of the NY rally at 80,980 and Thursday's Asian range top near 80,440 are the nearest supports below.
What it said to watch
Hourly close back below 81,700 prior highs would turn the range break into a false break
Acceptance above the 81,824 week high exposes the 82,000 round number
Loss of the 38.2% fib at 80,980 puts the 80,440 range top and the higher-lows line back in focus
Employment Cost Index Fri 12:30 UTC (f/c 0.8%) and Daly/Musalem from 16:00 UTC could materially shift this read
15:05 UTC
Range-bound, NY rebound into upper half · RSI 64 · price 81,192.58
79,285–81,717 weekly range; Wed double top broke down, Thu NY rebound retraced most of the drop.
Since Sunday's open BTC has held a 79,285–81,717 range. On Wednesday, price tested ~81,700 twice, once in the London morning and again after the Fed's 4% hold. That double top broke down in Thursday's Asia session to the Thursday low at 79,621. After the mixed 12:30 UTC US data (GDP beat, core PCE in line), price rebounded about 1,200 points into the NY session, reclaiming EMA(20) near 80,430 and retracing close to 78.6% of the Thursday drop, with RSI(14) back in the mid-60s. The higher lows at 79,405 and 79,621 sit above the week low, so the range floor is still rising.
What it said to watch
An H1 close above the 81,433 session high puts the 81,700 double top back in play. A rejection there keeps the range read intact.
A move back below EMA(20) near 80,430 would undo the NY rebound and return price to the higher-lows trendline.
Failure to hold the 79,621 Thursday low breaks the higher-lows sequence and exposes the 79,285 week low.
The ECI at 12:30 UTC Friday (f/c 0.8%) and Fed's Daly/Musalem at 16:00 and 16:30 UTC could materially shift this read.
14:07 UTC
Range-bound, rolled over from week high · RSI 45 · price 80,286.58
Double top near 81700, price retesting broken 80300 neckline from below.
The Tuesday–Wednesday advance off 79405 topped twice near 81700, first at Wednesday's London open and again after the Fed's hold. Thursday's Asia session then slid through the 80300 neckline at Wednesday's low, completing a double top. Since then price has carved higher lows from the 79621 Thursday low and is back at the neckline and EMA(20) near 80300, with RSI(14) recovering to ~45; today's mixed GDP/PCE print drew only a modest NY-hours bid. Still below EMA(50) and hovering just above the 80052 weekly open, the week remains a 79285–81717 range with the neckline as the pivot.
Support: 80,052.00, 79,621.00, 79,285.00
Resistance: 80,300.00, 80,662.00, 81,717.00
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 80300 neckline and EMA(20) undercuts the double-top read; the 50% fib of Thursday's drop at 80662 is the next reference
Rejection at the neckline followed by a break of the weekly open 80052 and the Thursday low 79621 would expose the week low at 79285
A break of the Thursday higher lows line would negate the recovery structure off 79621
US Employment Cost Index Fri 12:30 UTC (f/c 0.8%) and Fed's Daly/Musalem later Friday could materially shift this read
13:07 UTC
Range-bound, post-Fed fade from the highs · RSI 43 · price 80,035.86
79285–81717 week range; double top at the ceiling, higher lows beneath.
BTC spiked to 81703 after the Fed's in-line 4% hold yesterday. The move stalled just under Wednesday's London-open high of 81717, forming a double top, and the pair then dropped about 1,100 in the Asia session to a today low of 79621. The rebound stalled at 80438, the 38.2% fib of the post-Fed drop, and later bounces were capped beneath the ema20 near 80300. Price is now sitting on the weekly open at 80052 with RSI(14) near 43, and there has been little visible reaction so far to the 12:30 UTC GDP/PCE cluster.
Support: 79,621.00, 79,285.00
Resistance: 80,052.00, 80,300.00, 81,710.00
What it said to watch
Hourly close back above the ema20 near 80300 and the 38.2% fib at 80440 would break the post-Fed lower-high sequence
Failure to hold today low at 79621 breaks the higher lows trendline and exposes the week low at 79285
Double top at 81700–81717 remains the range ceiling unless cleared on a closing basis
GDP/PCE actuals from 12:30 UTC are not yet in the feed; a core PCE MoM print away from 0.3% could materially shift this read
Double top at 81700 broken; lower highs capped under the neckline.
Tuesday's rally from 79405 peaked at 81717 at Wednesday's London open. The post-Fed spike during NY hours stalled at 81703, completing a double top, and the hold at 4% left no lasting impulse. The 80298 neckline gave way in the Asia session today with a 1,100-point drop to the thu low at 79621. Since then price has rotated around the weekly open near 80050, and the 05:00 UTC retest stalled at 80438, a lower high at the 38.2% of the post-top fib. EMA(20) sits near 80315 alongside the neckline and RSI(14) is pinned below 50 around 39.
Support: 80,051.84, 79,621.32, 79,284.69
Resistance: 80,438.42, 81,717.01
What it said to watch
Core PCE/GDP at 12:30 UTC (~25 min) could materially shift this read via yields and the dollar
H1 close above the 80438 lower high reclaims the neckline and EMA(20), weakening the double top read
Failure to hold the weekly open at 80052 puts the thu low at 79621 back in play
A break of 79621 exposes the week low at 79285 and extends the lower-highs sequence
11:05 UTC
Range-bound, heavy after post-FOMC rejection · RSI 46 · price 80,223.65
Double top near 81700, lower high at 80440 inside 79285–81717 week range.
Wednesday's Fed-driven rally in NY hours stalled at 81703, just shy of the 81717 week high, and formed a double top. The pattern confirmed when the Asia session cut through the 80330 neckline to a 79621 day low. Price has since held between that low and an 80440 day high, which sits at the 38.2% fib of the drop. It trades below EMA(20) near 80355 and EMA(50) near 80460, with RSI(14) flat around 46, while rising lows from Monday's 79285 week low keep the broader range intact.
Support: 80,000.00, 79,621.00, 79,285.00
Resistance: 80,355.00, 80,440.00, 81,710.00
What it said to watch
Core PCE and GDP at 12:30 UTC (~1.5h) could materially shift this read via the USD and yields reaction
Hourly close back above the 80440 day high and ema20 cluster negates the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold 80000 psych and the 79621 day low exposes the rising lows trendline toward the 79285 week low
Recovery toward the double top at 81710 would need to clear the 50–61.8% fib zone at 80660–80910 first
Double top near 81,710 with neckline broken; lower highs since FOMC, rising lows intact.
The FOMC hold briefly softened the USD and lifted BTC to 81,703 during NY hours yesterday, but the move stalled just under Wednesday's 81,717 London-open high, forming a double top. As the dollar recovered, the Asia session drop broke the 80,299 neckline. Price is now chopping around the 80,052 week open below EMA(20) near 80,367, and RSI(14) has eased to about 44. The 79,621 swing low still sits above Tuesday's 79,406 and the 79,285 week low, so the rising lows line from Monday remains intact.
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 80,299 neckline and EMA(20) would weaken the double top read and reopen the upper half of the week's range
Failure to hold the 79,621 swing low breaks the rising lows line and puts the 79,285 week low in play
Sustained trade under the week open keeps the lower highs sequence from the 81,703 post-Fed high in control
Core PCE and Q3 GDP at 12:30 UTC (~2.5h) could materially shift this read via the USD and yield reaction
Double top near 81710 with the 80300 neckline broken; lower highs since the FOMC peak.
BTC rallied from Tuesday's London-session low at 79405 to a week high of 81717 on Wednesday. The post-FOMC spike stalled at 81703, completing a double top, and an 1,100-dollar drop in the Asia session cut through the 80300 neckline as the USD recovered from its post-presser dip. Price now sits below EMA(20) near 80370, which has crossed under EMA(50), with RSI(14) near 41 and the Thursday bounce high at 80440 capping, between the 61.8% and 78.6% retracements of the Tuesday–Wednesday rally.
Support: 79,620.00, 79,405.00, 79,285.00
Resistance: 80,300.00, 80,440.00, 81,710.00
What it said to watch
Core PCE and GDP at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read through the USD and yields channel
Hourly close back above the 80300 neckline and 80440 bounce high, and through the lower highs line, would neutralise the double top
Failure to hold the 79620 Asia low exposes the 79405 Tue low and the 79285 week low at the range floor
Double top at 81700s, neckline broken; holding above week's higher lows.
The Tuesday-Wednesday rally from the 79405 tue low stalled at 81717, and the post-FOMC push back to 81703 formed a double top before Asia-session supply took price through the 80298 wed low neckline. The hawkish-split Fed hold firmed the USD, and the move has now retraced beyond 78.6% of the rally. Price sits below EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) near 38. Thursday's bounce failed at an 80438 lower high, while the higher lows from the 79285 mon low still hold underneath.
Support: 79,621.32, 79,284.69
Resistance: 80,438.42, 81,717.01
What it said to watch
An H1 close back above the 80298 wed low and the 80438 lower high negates the double top break
Failure to hold the 79621 thu low exposes the 79405 tue low and the Monday higher-lows trendline
A break of the 79285 mon low would mark a fresh week low and end the higher-lows sequence
Core PCE and GDP at 12:30 UTC (~4.5h) could materially shift this read via USD and yields
07:06 UTC
Rolled over from week high, below both EMAs · RSI 38 · price 79,886.02
Double top at 81.7k, neckline broken, lower highs since FOMC.
Wednesday's NY-session rally after the in-line Fed hold reached 81,703 but stopped just under the 81,717 week high, forming a double top. As the USD recovered in Asia on oil and yield pressure, a single 1,100-point bar broke the 80,300 neckline and the rising HL line from Tuesday's 79,405 swing low. The bounce from the 79,621 Asia low stalled at 80,438, the 38.2% fib of the drop and a fresh lower high, leaving price below both EMAs with RSI(14) near 38.
What it said to watch
Core PCE and GDP at 12:30 UTC today could materially shift this read via the USD and yields
H1 close back above the 80,300 neckline and the 80,438 lower high weakens the double top read
Failure to hold the 79,621 Asia low exposes the 79,405 swing low and the 79,285 week low
Recovery of the 81,717 week high would invalidate the double top
06:06 UTC
Range-bound, rolled over after post-FOMC double top · RSI 45 · price 80,153.73
79,300–81,700 range; double top at the week high, neckline broken, higher lows intact.
BTCUSD has held a 79,300–81,700 range since Sunday. Wednesday's London-open spike to the 81,717 week high and the post-FOMC push to 81,703 formed a double top, and the reversal came in the Asia session as the dollar recovered from its post-Warsh dip, breaking the 80,298 neckline. The Asia low at 79,621 is still a higher low above Tuesday's 79,405 and the rising trendline from Monday's week low; price sits below EMA(20) near 80,560 and EMA(50), with RSI(14) near 45 and the bounce stalling at 80,438, the 38.2% fib of the post-FOMC drop.
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 80,298 neckline and EMA(20) near 80,560 would weaken the double top read
Break of the 79,621 Asia low and the rising trendline exposes the 79,405 higher low and the 79,284 week low
Core PCE and GDP at 12:30 UTC (~6.5h) could materially shift this read via the USD and yield reaction
05:08 UTC
Range-bound, rolled over from week highs · RSI 46 · price 80,177.70
Double top at 81,700 with neckline broken; rebound testing below EMA(20).
BTCUSD spiked to 81,703 after the Fed's in-line 4% hold but stalled just under Wednesday's 81,717 high, forming a double top, then shed about 1,100 in the first hour of the Asia session as the USD firmed. The drop broke both the rising trendline off Tuesday's lows and the 80,300 neckline. The rebound from the 79,620 Asian low has carried price back to the weekly open near 80,050, still below EMA(20) at about 80,600 and EMA(50), with RSI(14) at 46.
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 80,300 neckline and EMA(20) near 80,600 (50% fib of the post-FOMC drop) would undercut the double top read
Failure to hold the 79,620 Asian low exposes the 79,285 week low and the bottom of the range
Core PCE and Q3 GDP at 12:30 UTC (~7h) could materially shift this read through the USD and yields
04:06 UTC
Range, rolled over from range top · RSI 37 · price 79,739.19
79,285–81,717 range; double top at 81,700 broke its 80,300 neckline.
BTC has held a 79,285–81,717 range since Monday's week low. A double top formed at 81,700, first on Wednesday's London-open spike and again during the FOMC presser. The hawkish-split Fed hold and a firmer USD in Asia hours then drove a ~1,100-point hourly drop through the 80,300 neckline and the rising trendline off Tuesday's low, retracing more than 78.6% of the week range advance. Price now sits below the weekly open and EMA(20) near 80,600 with RSI(14) at 37, and the Asia low at 79,621 is the nearest floor above the week low.
What it said to watch
Hourly close back above the 80,300 neckline negates the double-top break
Reclaim of the 80,050 weekly open would mark the drop being absorbed
Failure to hold the 79,621 Asia low and then the 79,285 week low opens the double-top measured move toward ~78,890
Core PCE and GDP at 12:30 UTC (~8.5h) could materially shift this read via USD and yields
03:06 UTC
Range, rolling over from double top · RSI 39 · price 79,884.03
79,300–81,700 range; rising trendline broken, price back in lower third.
The NY-session rally off the 79,405 Oct 27 low ran to 81,717 on Wednesday, and the post-FOMC push stalled at 81,703, leaving a double top at the range high after the in-line 4% Fed hold. A 1,100-point drop in the Asia session broke the rising trendline and the 80,300 Wed low, and price has retraced about 79% of that rally. Price now sits under both EMAs with RSI(14) near 39, holding just above the 79,621 Asia low.
What it said to watch
H1 close back above 80,300 (Wed low) would undercut the breakdown read
Rebounds meeting the ema20 near 80,720 are the first test of whether supply caps the bounce
Failure to hold the 79,621 Asia low exposes the 79,405 Oct 27 low and the 79,285 week low
A break of the week low turns the range into a lower-low sequence
US core PCE and GDP at 12:30 UTC Thu (~9.5h) could materially shift this read via USD and yields
02:06 UTC
Range, rolling over from double top · RSI 38 · price 79,877.03
4-day range 79285–81717; neckline at 80298 broken in Asia.
Tuesday's NY-to-London rally from the 79405 swing low peaked at 81717. After the in-line Fed hold, a second push stalled at 81703, completing a double top near 81710. A ~1,100-point drop during the Asia session, as the USD recovered from its post-presser dip, took out the 80298 neckline (also the 61.8% fib of the rally) and left price below EMA(20) near 80790 with RSI(14) at 38. Price now sits at the 78.6% retracement, inside the range above the rising lows from Monday's 79285 week low.
Support: 79,405.00, 79,285.00
Resistance: 80,298.00, 80,790.00, 81,710.00
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 80298 neckline negates the double top break and returns price to the mid-range
Failure to hold the 79405 swing low and rising lows line exposes the 79285 week low
Core PCE and GDP at 12:30 UTC Thursday could materially shift this read via the USD and yields
Reclaim of EMA(20) near 80790 needed before the double top area at 81710 is back in play
01:08 UTC
Higher lows since Tuesday, stalling below week high · RSI 49 · price 81,017.78
Higher lows from the 79,300s base, capped by equal highs near 81,700.
BTC built a 79,300–79,400 base from Monday's Asia session into Tuesday, then rallied to a week high at 81,717 around Wednesday's London open. The pullback that followed held the 80,298 swing low near the 61.8% retracement of that impulse. After the Fed's in-line hold, the USD softened and the NY session pushed price to 81,703, a second rejection just shy of the week high; price has since faded from the post-fed cap at 81,366 and now sits on EMA(20) near 81,005, with RSI(14) back at 49.
What it said to watch
Hourly closes below EMA(20) near 81,005 shift focus to the rising higher-low trendline, now near 80,570
Failure to hold the 80,298 swing low would complete a double top against 81,717 and expose the week low at 79,314
A close above the 81,717 week high voids the equal-highs cap; the post-fed cap at 81,366 is the first hurdle
Core PCE and GDP Thu 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read via USD and yield moves
00:06 UTC
Uptrend since Tuesday, stalling at week high · RSI 55 · price 81,282.49
Higher lows 79405→80298; equal highs near 81710.
After basing at the 79285 week low, BTC broke out of the early-week 79285–80850 range in Tuesday's London-NY transition. It set a 81717 week high at Wednesday's London open, then retraced to the 80298 swing low at the 61.8% fib, keeping the higher-low sequence intact. The post-FOMC sell-the-fact USD dip lifted price back to 81703 in NY hours, a rejection just under the week high, and price now sits above the ema20 with RSI(14) in the mid-50s.
Support: 81,050.00, 79,284.69
Resistance: 81,717.01, 82,000.00
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 81717 week high clears the equal highs and opens the path to the 82000 round number
Holding the ema20 near 81050 keeps the post-FOMC rebound structure intact
Failure to hold the 80298 swing low (61.8% fib) breaks the higher-low sequence and points back into the early-week range
Core PCE and GDP Thu 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read via the USD and yields