21:09 UTC
Post-breakout range, drifting lower since early October · RSI 47 · price 81,285.48
Lower highs from 87,270 with marginally lower lows near 79,200.
BTC broke out of the 62,000–65,000 August base on Aug 19 and has since held a wide 74,900–87,300 range. The Sep low held at the 50% fib of that breakout leg. The Sep 21 spike to the 87,270 sep high was capped on three more attempts into early October. Since then the chart shows lower highs and marginally lower lows, with demand stepping in at the oct lows near 79,200 on Oct 24–26. Price sits near 81,300, just under the ema20 (~81,700) but above a flattening ema50 (~80,600), and RSI is a neutral 46. The macro backdrop offers no fresh tailwind after the in-line Fed hold at 4%, the Q3 GDP beat and sticky 3.1% core PCE.
What it said to watch
- A daily close below the oct lows at 79,200 extends the lower-low sequence and exposes the sep low/50% fib at 74,900
- A close above the oct high at 84,800 breaks the lower highs line and reopens the 87,270 sep high
- Failure to hold the ema50 near 80,600 would weaken the broader range read
- ECI (Fri 12:30 UTC, f/c 0.8%) and Fed speakers Daly/Musalem could materially shift this read via yields and USD