21:09 UTC
Broader uptrend, correcting from September high · RSI 45 · price 80,742.08
Lower highs since 87,270, retesting September breakout zone.
The quarter-long uptrend from the Aug 19 breakout out of the 62,000–65,000 base stalled at the Sept 21 cycle high of 87,270. A double top near 87,000 gave way below the 82,500 range floor in early October, and the lower-high sequence that followed peaked at 84,800 on Oct 21 before rejection. Price now sits below a flattening EMA(50) near 82,000, retesting the mid-September breakout zone, where the fib 61.8% at 79,630 and the Oct low at 79,170 have absorbed two weeks of pressure. The in-line Fed hold at 4% left direction to USD and yield moves into Thursday's core PCE.
What it said to watch
- Daily close below the 79,170 oct low breaks the fib 61.8% hold and exposes the 74,900 sept low
- Close back above the ema50 near 82,000 and the lower-high trendline would neutralise the corrective read
- A break above the 84,800 lower high ends the lower-high sequence and reopens the 87,270 cycle high
- Core PCE and GDP Thu 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read via USD and Treasury yields