22:50 UTC
Transitioning to downtrend from Sep 21 peak · RSI 36 · price 76,884.33
Lower highs and lower lows since 87,270; Oct range floor broken.
The Aug–Sep uptrend topped at 87,270 on Sep 21, and price has since printed a lower-highs chain at 87,060, 84,800 and the Oct 29 lower high at 81,890, which was capped near EMA(50). Friday's close at 76,880 broke the Oct 24 low at 79,170, ending a five-week 79,200–87,000 range, and tagged the early-September prior low at 76,230. Little dovish fuel came from sticky 3.1% core PCE and the GDP beat. The 50% retracement of the Aug–Sep advance, near 74,900, sits on the Sept swing low.
What it said to watch
- Daily close below the 76,230 prior low confirms a lower low and exposes the Sept swing low / fib 50% near 74,900
- A recovery back above the Oct 24 low at 79,170 would turn Friday's drop into a false break inside the range
- A daily close above the 81,890 lower high and EMA(50) would break the lower-highs trendline sequence; the Oct 21 high at 84,800 is next above
- Thin weekend liquidity precedes ISM Manufacturing and Prices Paid on Mon Nov 2 at 15:00 UTC; the Nov 3 midterms could materially shift this read