21:47 UTC
Downtrend from the Sep 20 peak, extending · RSI 39 · price 77,468.69
Lower highs and lower lows since Sep 20; October floor near 79,170 broken.
The Aug–Sep rally peaked at 87,273 on Sep 20. Since then BTC has printed a six-week chain of lower highs (87,058, 84,797, then the 81,893 lower high on Oct 26) and lower lows, and price now sits below a flattening EMA(20)/ema50 cluster near 80,000–80,450. The Oct 29 break of the oct 22 low at 79,170 ran to 76,227, matching the Sep 1 swing low and sitting just under the 38.2% retracement of the Aug–Sep rally near 77,800. On the macro side, hot Q3 GDP and core PCE stuck at 3.1% leave little dovish support heading into a thin weekend.
What it said to watch
- A daily close below the 76,227 swing low opens the sep low at 74,900, which coincides with the 50% retracement near 74,880
- A reclaim of the oct 22 low at 79,170, followed by a close back above the ema50 near 80,000, would neutralise the breakdown
- A daily close above the 81,893 lower high breaks the lower-high chain and challenges the downtrend read
- ISM Manufacturing and Prices Paid (Mon Nov 2, 15:00 UTC) and the US midterms (Nov 3) could materially shift this read