EUR/USD AI Live Scan, 1-hour chart, Monday, 2 November 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the EUR/USD 1-hour chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:02 UTC
Uptrend, pulling back from 1.1237 · RSI 50 · price 1.11878
Higher lows since Thursday; Monday high rejected, retracing.
Higher lows run from Thursday's post-GDP thu low at 1.1104 through Friday's 1.1136 and the 1.1149 monday low. London then lifted price through the 1.1214 prior high to a 1.1237 monday high as crude and the USD slid on US-Iran diplomacy headlines. That high was rejected, early NY printed a lower high at 1.1229, and the drop after the 15:00 UTC ISM release pulled price back under the ema20 at 1.1193 and the 1.1200 round number. Price now sits at the 61.8% retracement of Monday's leg, alongside the ema50 near 1.1183, with RSI(14) back at 50 after topping above 70.
Support: 1.1183, 1.1149, 1.1104
Resistance: 1.1193, 1.1214, 1.1237
What it said to watch
Hourly close below the ema50 and 61.8% near 1.1183 exposes the monday low at 1.1149 and the higher-low trendline near 1.1177
Reclaiming the ema20 and 1.1200 round number reopens the prior high at 1.1214 and the monday high at 1.1237
A break of the thu low at 1.1104 ends the higher-low sequence
US midterm results overnight and Wednesday's 10:00 UTC Eurozone flash HICP could materially shift this read
Higher lows intact since Thursday; lower highs since Monday's 1.1237 peak.
EUR/USD has printed higher lows since Thursday's NY-session low at 1.1104. At Monday's London open, sliding oil and Kažimír's hawkish remarks lifted price through the friday high at 1.1214 to a 1.1237 week high. That break did not hold: price formed lower highs into NY hours, slipped after the ISM beat, and now sits just under EMA(20) and the 1.1200 psych level with RSI(14) back to 50 from 71, while the 1.1190 ny low is holding above EMA(50) at 1.1182 and the 38.2% rally fib at 1.1186.
Support: 1.1190, 1.1182, 1.1153
Resistance: 1.1200, 1.1214, 1.1237
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.1190 ny low and EMA(50) at 1.1182 exposes the week open at 1.1153, near the 61.8% rally fib
H1 close back above 1.1200 psych and the friday high at 1.1214 breaks the lower highs and brings the 1.1237 week high back into play
A break of the higher lows trendline from Thursday's low would undo the uptrend read
US midterms, JOLTS at 15:00 UTC and ECB Nagel at 18:00 UTC Tue could shift this read ahead of Wed's flash HICP
The leg from Thursday's 1.1104 NY-session low has printed higher lows since. London drove Monday's push from the 1.1153 weekly open to a 1.1237 week high as oil slid and Kažimír's hawkish ECB comments lifted EUR. NY hours faded the move from a 1.1229 lower high to the 1.1190 NY low, just above the 38.2% fib of the Thursday-to-Monday impulse, and price is now chopping around the 1.1200 round number, pinned at EMA(20) with RSI(14) back near 52.
Support: 1.1190, 1.1153, 1.1136
Resistance: 1.1200, 1.1229, 1.1237
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.1190 ny low exposes the 50% fib near 1.1170 and the 1.1153 weekly open
Failure to hold the weekly open and the rising trendline from Thursday's low puts the 1.1136 friday low in play and breaks the higher-low sequence
Acceptance above the 1.1229 lower high reopens the 1.1237 week high, the upper edge of supply flagged at 1.1200–1.1250
US midterm results on Tuesday and Wednesday's 10:00 UTC flash HICP could materially shift this read
20:01 UTC
Uptrend from Thursday's low, pulling back from 1.1237 · RSI 54 · price 1.11954
Higher lows since Thu; lower high at 1.1229 below week high.
Higher lows have formed from Thursday's 1.1104 low through the 1.1136 Friday low and Monday's Asian dip. London then pushed to a 1.1237 week high on the Kažimír headline and oil's slide. Rejection inside the 1.1200–1.1250 supply area and a lower high at 1.1229 in the NY session have pulled price back to the 1.1200 round number, sitting on EMA(20) near 1.1195 with RSI(14) easing to ~54. The ny low at 1.1190 sits between the 38.2% and 50% retrace of the Fri-Mon leg, with the weekly open at 1.1153 below.
Support: 1.1190, 1.1153, 1.1136
Resistance: 1.1200, 1.1229, 1.1237
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 1.1200 round number and the 1.1229 lower high reopens the 1.1237 week high
Break of the 1.1190 ny low exposes the 50% Fri-Mon leg retrace near 1.1186 and the weekly open at 1.1153
Loss of the friday low at 1.1136 breaks the higher lows sequence
US midterm results Tue, JOLTS Tue 15:00 UTC and Wed flash HICP 10:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows since Thursday; shallow pullback from the Monday high.
Since Thursday's NY low at 1.1104, H1 has printed higher lows at 1.1136 on Friday and 1.1149 at Monday's open. Lower oil and Kažimír's hawkish ECB remarks drove the London session through the 1.1214 prior high to a 1.1237 Monday high. The NY session then faded the move to a 1.1190 swing low near the 50% retracement of the Friday-to-Monday leg, after the mixed ISM data. Price is back at 1.1203, holding just above ema20 with RSI(14) near 58.
Support: 1.1199, 1.1190, 1.1153
Resistance: 1.1214, 1.1237, 1.1250
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1214 prior high reopens the 1.1237 monday high and the 1.1250 supply zone
Break below the 1.1190 swing low and the 61.8% at 1.1175 exposes the 1.1153 weekly open and the higher-low trendline
US midterm results Tue into Wed and Eurozone flash HICP Wed 10:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows since Thursday, pullback from 1.1237 holding at EMA20.
Higher lows from Thursday's 1.1104 through Friday's 1.1136 and Monday's opening dip to 1.1149 carried the pair to a week high of 1.1237 in London, as falling oil and Kažimír's hawkish ECB remarks lifted EUR. The advance stalled below the week high, and the ISM beat during NY hours knocked price back under the 1.1214 prior high. The NY low at 1.1190 held at EMA(20), near the 38.2% level of the Thursday–Monday fib, while RSI(14) has cooled to the low 60s beneath the 1.1200–1.1250 supply zone.
Support: 1.1190, 1.1170, 1.1153
Resistance: 1.1214, 1.1237, 1.1250
What it said to watch
Hourly close below the 1.1190 NY low and EMA(20) exposes the 50% fib at 1.1170 and the week open at 1.1153
Break of the higher lows trendline, now near 1.1160, would end the sequence from Thursday's low
Acceptance back above the 1.1214 prior high and the 1.1237 week high puts the top of the 1.1250 supply zone in play
US midterms Tue and ECB Nagel/Sleijpen at 18:00 UTC Tue could materially shift this read; Wed flash HICP is the week's key EUR risk
17:01 UTC
Uptrend from Thursday low, stalling at 1.1200 · RSI 57 · price 1.1197
Higher lows intact; false break above 1.1200 left a lower high.
Higher lows since Thursday's 1.1104 low carried price to a 1.1237 week high in London this morning, helped by hawkish ECB talk and the PMI beats. The push through the 1.1200 round number did not hold: a 1.1229 lower high formed at 13:00 UTC, and a NY-session drop pulled price back under the level as French fiscal stress capped EUR. Price now sits on EMA(20) near 1.1194 with RSI(14) cooled to the high 50s, while the fib 50% of the Thursday–Monday impulse at 1.1170 and the weekly open at 1.1153 sit beneath.
Support: 1.1194, 1.1170, 1.1153
Resistance: 1.1200, 1.1229, 1.1237
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 1.1229 lower high negates the false break and brings the 1.1237 week high back into play
Sustained trade below EMA(20) and the fib 50% at 1.1170 would expose the weekly open at 1.1153 and test the higher-lows sequence
Repeated rejection at the 1.1200 round number keeps the move contained below the cited 1.1200–1.1250 supply
US midterm results into Wednesday and Wed HICP flash (f/c 3.9% y/y, core 2.5%) could materially shift this read
Higher lows since Thursday, breakout above 1.1214 now retesting.
EUR/USD has built higher lows since Thursday's 1.1104 low. Monday's London open broke through the 1.1214 Thursday high to a 1.1237 week high, on hawkish ECB talk, manufacturing PMI beats and softer oil. Since then a lower high at 1.1229 around NY open and a hold of the 1.1202 pullback low have left price coiling just above 1.1200, inside the cited 1.1200–1.1250 supply zone, with RSI(14) easing from the low 70s and price still above EMA(20).
Support: 1.1202, 1.1186, 1.1153
Resistance: 1.1229, 1.1237, 1.1250
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.1202 pullback low exposes the fib 38.2 at 1.1186 and turns the breakout into a false break
Acceptance above the 1.1229 lower high and the 1.1237 week high puts the 1.1250 supply top in play
Failure to hold the weekly open at 1.1153 would break the higher-lows sequence
US midterms (Tue, results overnight) and Wed HICP flash at 10:00 UTC (f/c 3.9% y/y, core 2.5%) could materially shift this read
Tue JOLTS at 15:00 UTC and ECB's Nagel/Sleijpen at 18:00 UTC are nearer-term catalysts
15:01 UTC
Uptrend since Thursday low, stalling under 1.1240 · RSI 66 · price 1.12132
Higher lows have stacked up since Thursday's 1.1104 low near the 1.1100 area: 1.1136 on Friday and the 1.1149 weekly open low on Monday. The London open drove the dominant move, a two-bar spike to the 1.1237 Monday high on Kazimir's hawkish ECB remarks and firm PMIs, before a rejection inside the 1.1200–1.1250 supply zone. The pullback held the 1.1202 london low, just above the 38.2% retracement of the Friday-to-Monday leg, and price is now coiling around 1.1213 with EMA(20) rising beneath at 1.1193 and RSI(14) easing from the high 70s to the mid 60s.
Support: 1.1202, 1.1193, 1.1153
Resistance: 1.1237, 1.1250
What it said to watch
US ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC and Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC could materially shift this read
An H1 close above the 1.1237 monday high puts the 1.1250 round number in play
A break of the 1.1202 london low and EMA(20) would expose the 50% retracement near 1.1186 and the 1.1153 weekly open
A loss of the higher lows trendline would break the sequence in place since Thursday
US midterms Tuesday and Eurozone HICP Wednesday are the next scheduled event risk
14:01 UTC
Uptrend from Thursday's low, pausing below week high · RSI 67 · price 1.12142
Higher lows since Thursday; London-led push to a week high, pullback held the 38.2% fib.
Since Thursday's NY low at 1.1104, H1 has printed higher lows at 1.1136 Friday and 1.1149 at Monday's open. London then drove a 50-pip leg to a week high at 1.1237, helped by softer oil, a weaker USD into the midterms and hawkish ECB talk. Price met rejection there, and the pullback low at 1.1202 held the 38.2% fib of Monday's impulse. Price is rebuilding around 1.1214, well above the H1 ema20 near 1.1189, with RSI(14) easing from the high-70s.
Support: 1.1202, 1.1189, 1.1153
Resistance: 1.1237, 1.1250
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1237 week high opens the 1.1250 round number, the top of the 1.1200–1.1250 supply area flagged this week
Loss of the 1.1202 pullback low and the H1 ema20 near 1.1189 would break the higher-lows sequence back toward the 1.1153 weekly open
ISM Manufacturing and ECB's Escrivá at 15:00 UTC, then Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC, could materially shift this read
US midterms Tuesday and Wednesday's HICP are the larger swing risks to the 1.12 handle
13:01 UTC
Uptrend, pulling back from week high · RSI 66 · price 1.12071
Higher lows since Thursday; pullback to 38.2% of Monday's impulse.
Higher lows have held since Thursday's 1.1104 post-US-data low, Friday's 1.1136 low and Monday's 1.1149 low near the weekly open. Monday's rally ran from the Asian session into the London morning. The move came on Kazimir's hawkish ECB remarks and lower oil. It cleared Friday's 1.1214 prior high and printed a 1.1237 week high before supply inside the 1.1200–1.1250 zone produced a rejection. Price is now holding the 1.1202 pullback low, which sits on the 38.2% of Monday's impulse. EMA20 sits just below near 1.1189 and RSI(14) has eased from overbought to the mid-60s.
Support: 1.1202, 1.1189, 1.1153
Resistance: 1.1214, 1.1237, 1.1250
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.1189 ema20 and the 50% fib near 1.1193 shifts the read from pullback to deeper retracement toward the weekly open at 1.1153
Reclaiming the 1.1214 prior high, then a close above the 1.1237 week high, opens the 1.1250 supply top
Break of the higher lows trendline (about 1.1157 now) invalidates the week's uptrend structure
US ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC (f/c 54.6) could materially shift this read
Wed HICP flash at 10:00 UTC (YoY f/c 3.9%) is the key catalyst for a test of the 1.1200–1.1250 zone
12:02 UTC
Uptrend, stalling at supply · RSI 58 · price 1.1204
Higher lows since Thursday; false break above Friday high.
Higher lows since Thursday's 1.1104 NY-session low have carried EURUSD through the window. Monday's grind from Asia into the London open, helped by lower oil and Kazimir's hawkish ECB remarks, lifted price above the 1.1214 Friday high to a 1.1237 week high, but the move stalled inside the ING-flagged 1.1200–1.1250 zone and the next hour closed back below 1.1214 as RSI(14) eased from ~68 to 58. Price holds the 1.1200 round number with EMA(20) at 1.1186, which lines up with the 38.2% fib of the Thursday–Monday leg.
Support: 1.1200, 1.1186, 1.1153
Resistance: 1.1214, 1.1237, 1.1250
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 1.1214 friday high would undo the false-break read and bring the 1.1237 week high and 1.1250 supply top back into view
Loss of the 1.1200 round number and the ema20 at 1.1186 (38.2% of the Thursday–Monday leg) opens the 50% retracement near 1.1170 and the 1.1153 weekly open
A close below the higher lows trendline from Thursday would break the uptrend structure
US ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC today and Wednesday's HICP flash (f/c 3.9%) could materially shift this read
Higher lows since Thursday; London-open breakout above Friday's high.
Higher lows at 1.1104 on Thursday, 1.1136 after Friday's HICP-miss drop and 1.1149 at Monday's weekly open frame the uptrend. Price climbed steadily through the Asia session, and at London open it broke through the 1.1200 round number and Friday's prior high at 1.1214, helped by hawkish ECB repricing after Kazimir and a softer USD as oil eased. The 1.1237 session high left a long upper wick, so price sits just above 1.1214 with RSI(14) near 71, while EMA(20) around 1.1186 trails some 30 pips below.
Support: 1.12143, 1.1200, 1.11864
Resistance: 1.12366, 1.1250
What it said to watch
Hourly closes back below the 1.1214 prior high and then the 1.1200 round number would turn the breakout into a false break
A sustained push through the 1.1237 session high exposes the 1.1250 psych level
The 38.2% retracement of the Thursday–Monday impulse sits near 1.1186, alongside ema20; a deeper pullback there tests the uptrend
A close below the higher-lows trendline from Thursday's 1.1104 low would break the sequence of higher lows
ECB's Nagel (12:00 UTC), plus Escrivá and US ISM Manufacturing (both 15:00 UTC), could materially shift this read; Tuesday's US midterms add event risk
10:01 UTC
Uptrend, extended into overbought · RSI 76 · price 1.12258
Higher lows since Thursday; break above Friday's high.
Higher lows at 1.1104 (Thu NY), 1.1136 (Fri) and 1.1149 (Mon Asia) frame the advance, and price has ground higher since the 1.1153 week open. London open did the heavy lifting, taking out the 1.1200 round number and the 1.1214 prior high to set a week high at 1.1228, as hawkish ECB repricing met a USD softened by Iran-diplomacy hopes and lower oil. RSI(14) near 76 shows the Thursday-to-Monday impulse is stretched, with the 38.2% retracement sitting close to ema20 around 1.1178.
Support: 1.12143, 1.1200, 1.1178
Resistance: 1.12275, 1.1250
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 1.1214 prior high, then the 1.1200 round number, would mark a false break of Friday's range
ECB's Nagel (12:00 UTC) and Escrivá (15:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
US ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC (f/c 54.6) is the main USD risk to the breakout
Pullback holding ema20 / 38.2% near 1.1178 keeps the higher-lows trendline intact
Acceptance above the 1.1228 week high leaves the 1.1250 psych level as the next reference
US midterms Tuesday could jolt depressed implied vol either way
Higher lows since Monday open, retest of Friday's rejection zone.
EUR/USD opened the week at 1.1153 (weekly open), slightly below Friday's close, and has climbed steadily through the Asia session into the London open with higher lows on most hours. Softer USD on Iran-diplomacy hopes and lower oil is offsetting the German retail sales miss. Price is back above EMA(20) near 1.1176 with RSI(14) around 67, retesting the 1.1200 round number just under the 1.1214 friday high. Friday's NY-session rejection from that zone unwound roughly 70% of the Thursday–Friday impulse to a 1.1136 friday low.
Support: 1.1176, 1.11534, 1.11361
Resistance: 1.1200, 1.12143
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1214 friday high breaks the repeated cap near 1.12 and extends the Thursday–Friday impulse
Rejection at the 1.1200 round number plus a break of the Monday higher-lows trendline and ema20 (1.1176) returns price inside Friday's range toward the weekly open at 1.1153
Loss of the 1.1136 friday low puts the 0.786 retracement of the Thursday–Friday impulse in view
Final HCOB manufacturing PMI and ECB Vujčić/Nagel this morning, then US ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
US midterm elections on Tuesday add event risk to the 1.12 test
Higher lows since Thursday against lower highs from Friday; contracting range 1.1136–1.1214.
The Thursday–Friday impulse ran from the 1.1104 NY-session low to Friday's 1.1214 week high. Friday's NY selloff retraced about 70% of that move to 1.1136, and the pair has since printed higher lows against the lower highs set Friday. Monday's opening gap below Friday's close filled during the Asia session, and price then climbed through the weekly open at 1.1153 and EMA(20) near 1.1173 on a softer USD (Iran-diplomacy hopes, lower oil), with RSI(14) near 58. The session high at 1.1188 sits just under the lower-highs line from Friday's peaks, with the 1.1200 round number and the week high stacked above.
Support: 1.11725, 1.11534, 1.11361
Resistance: 1.11879, 1.1200, 1.12143
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1200 round number and the lower-highs line reopens Friday's 1.1214 week high
Slip back below ema20 and the weekly open at 1.1153 puts the friday low at 1.1136 and the higher-lows line back in focus
Final HCOB Manufacturing PMIs (08:15–08:55 UTC) and ECB Vujčić/Nagel remarks on a December hike could shift this read
US ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC and Tuesday's US midterms could materially shift this read
Higher low at 1.1136 inside the 1.1104–1.1214 week range; Asia higher lows.
Thursday's ECB-day sweep of 1.1104 reversed into a 1.1214 week high in Friday's Asia session. NY hours then unwound most of the move to the 1.1136 friday low as tech-stock jitters lifted the USD. Monday opened with a gap below Friday's close that filled within two hours, and Asia session higher lows on Iran-diplomacy USD softness have carried price back above the weekly open at 1.1153 and EMA(20) near 1.1172. The session high at 1.1184 sits on the 61.8% retracement of Friday's drop, with RSI(14) near 60 and the round number 1.1200 plus the 1.1214 week high still capping the range top.
Support: 1.1172, 1.1153, 1.1136
Resistance: 1.1184, 1.1200, 1.1214
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1184 session high (61.8% of Friday's drop) opens the round number 1.1200 and the 1.1214 week high
Loss of EMA(20) at 1.1172 and the Asia higher lows line returns focus to the weekly open 1.1153, then the friday low 1.1136
German Retail Sales (07:00 UTC), HCOB PMIs (08:15–08:55 UTC) and ECB Vujčić/Nagel could test the London session's hold above EMA(20)
US ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC and Tuesday's midterms could materially shift this read; a fresh USD bid puts the 1.1104 week low back in play
Higher lows from 1.1104, capped below 1.1214 week high.
EUR/USD briefly undercut Wednesday's low to print the week low at 1.1104 in Thursday's NY session, then reversed hard to the 1.1214 week high in Friday's Asia session. The USD recovery into Friday's NY session pulled it back to the 1.1136 friday low, almost exactly the 61.8% fib of that rally. Monday's Asia session gapped lower but has filled the gap and is back above EMA(20) and EMA(50) near 1.1176 on the Eurozone GDP beat and a softer USD, with RSI(14) at 54 and the 38.2% fib at 1.1194 the first cap.
Support: 1.1169, 1.1149, 1.1136
Resistance: 1.1194, 1.1214
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 38.2% fib at 1.1194 reopens the 1.1214 week high
Loss of the monday low at 1.1149 puts the higher-lows line and the 1.1136 friday low in play
Break below the 1.1136 friday low exposes the 1.1104 week low
German Retail Sales (07:00 UTC) and final HCOB PMIs (08:15–08:55 UTC) could shift the read early in London
US ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC is the main NY-session risk to this range
05:02 UTC
Range-bound, mild Asia recovery · RSI 52 · price 1.11719
Higher low at 1.1136 inside the 1.1104–1.1214 range, below the 1.1206 lower high.
EUR/USD spent last week rotating inside a 1.1104–1.1214 range. The post-ECB low gave way to a Friday Asia peak at the 1.1214 week high, then a London lower high at 1.1206, then a NY drop to the 1.1136 friday low as the USD rebounded on risk-off. Monday's Asia session gapped lower to the 1.1153 weekly open but has since ground higher, reclaiming the flat ema20/50 cluster near 1.1167 with RSI(14) back at 52 and price pressing the 1.1173 fri ny high.
Support: 1.1167, 1.1153, 1.1136
Resistance: 1.1173, 1.1206, 1.1214
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1173 fri ny high and then the 1.1206 lower high reopens the 1.1214 week high at the range top
Loss of the ema20/50 cluster and the 1.1153 weekly open breaks the higher-lows line and puts the 1.1136 friday low back in play, with the 1.1104 17-month low beneath
50% retracement of the 1.1104–1.1214 swing at 1.1159 has acted as a pivot; repeated H1 closes below it shift the read back toward the range low
Final HCOB manufacturing PMIs (08:15–08:55 GMT), ECB speakers and US ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
04:02 UTC
Two-way, mid-range after failed push to 1.1214 · RSI 48 · price 1.11675
Range 1.1104–1.1214, higher low Friday under a lower high.
Thursday's post-ECB drop through 1.1113 to the 1.1104 week low reversed into a false break. The rebound ran through Friday's Asia session to the 1.1214 week high, but the 1.1206 lower high in London gave way to NY-session USD demand. That slide held a higher low at the 1.1136 friday low near the 61.8%–78.6% retracement zone. Monday opened with a small gap to the 1.1149 monday low, which held on the higher-low line. The Asia session recovered to a 1.1172 asia high just under the 38.2% fib as Iran-diplomacy hopes softened the USD, leaving price pinned on EMA(20) near 1.1168 with RSI(14) flat near 48.
Support: 1.1149, 1.1136, 1.1104
Resistance: 1.1172, 1.1206, 1.1214
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1172 asia high and 38.2% fib opens the 1.1206 lower high and 1.1214 week high
Break of the 1.1149 monday low and the higher-low line exposes the 1.1136 friday low, then the 1.1104 week low
Eurozone retail sales (07:00 UTC) and final HCOB PMIs (08:15–08:55 UTC) could shift the morning range
US ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC is the main NY-session risk to this mid-range read
03:02 UTC
Two-way after V-reversal off 1.1104, momentum neutral · RSI 50 · price 1.11681
Higher lows from 1.1104, capped below 38.2% fib.
The 1.1104 17-month low printed in Thursday's NY session around the ECB and US GDP, and price then rebounded sharply to the 1.1214 week high in Friday's Asia session. The USD recovered on tech jitters during Friday's NY session and dragged price back to the 1.1136 friday low, setting a lower high at 1.1206 on the way down. Monday's opening gap to the 1.1149 monday low has been filled in the Asian range, leaving a sequence of higher lows. Price now sits on the ema cluster near 1.1165, where EMA20 and EMA50 have converged, with RSI(14) flat at 50. Friday's and Monday's highs both stalled at the 38.2% fib of the Thursday–Friday impulse near 1.1172.
Support: 1.1165, 1.1149, 1.1136
Resistance: 1.1172, 1.1206, 1.1214
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 38.2% fib at 1.1172 reopens the 1.1206 lower high and the 1.1214 week high
Break of the higher lows line and the 1.1149 monday low exposes the 1.1136 friday low, then the 1.1104 17-month low
Eurozone Retail Sales at 07:00 UTC, HCOB PMIs from 08:15 UTC and ECB Vujčić/Nagel could shift the read during the London session
US ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC is the main NY-session risk to the current range
02:02 UTC
Rebound from ECB low, stalling at EMA20 · RSI 50 · price 1.11678
Higher lows since Thursday; mid-range below Friday's lower high.
Thursday's ECB-driven false break to the 1.1104 ecb low reversed into a 110-pip impulse to the 1.1214 week high in Friday's Asia session. A NY-session USD recovery then knocked price back to the 1.1136 friday low. Monday's Asian session filled the gap below the 1.1153 weekly open, and price now sits on EMA(20) near 1.1167, above EMA(50), with RSI(14) flat at 50 and higher lows intact since Thursday; the 1.1172 fri ny high lines up with the 38.2% retracement of the ECB-low-to-week-high move and is capping so far, with Friday's 1.1206 lower high above.
Support: 1.11534, 1.11361, 1.11042
Resistance: 1.11724, 1.12056, 1.12143
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.1172 (fri ny high / 38.2%) opens the 1.1206 lower high and the 1.1214 week high
Loss of the 1.1153 weekly open, then the 1.1136 friday low, breaks the higher lows sequence and exposes the 1.1104 ecb low
Eurozone Retail Sales (07:00 UTC), HCOB PMIs (08:15–08:55 UTC) and ECB Vujčić/Nagel could materially shift this read
US ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC (f/c 54.6) is the main USD risk into the NY session
01:01 UTC
Two-way range after a failed push above 1.1200 · RSI 43 · price 1.11564
1.1104–1.1214 range, lower high Friday, higher low at 1.1136.
Thursday's NY-session low at 1.1104 (week low) gave way to a rally into Friday's Asian session as post-FOMC USD softness hit 1.1214 (week high). Supply capped a second attempt at 1.1206, a lower high. The first hour of Friday's NY session then erased half the move on the USD rebound and tech risk-off, stopping at 1.1136 (friday low), near the 61.8% retracement. Monday opened slightly below the 1.1166 prior close, and the 1.1149 monday low is holding so far. Price sits near the 50% retracement, just under EMA(20) and EMA(50), with RSI(14) near 43.
Support: 1.1149, 1.1136, 1.1104
Resistance: 1.1166, 1.1206, 1.1214
What it said to watch
Hourly close back above 1.1166 prior close and EMA(20) would return the read to the upper half of the range
Failure to hold the 1.1149 monday low exposes the 1.1136 friday low and the higher-low trendline
A break below 1.1136 would turn the higher-low structure into a test of the 1.1104 week low
Clearing the 1.1206 lower high and the 1.1214 week high would break the range top
EZ retail sales, HCOB PMIs and Nagel/Vujčić on December hike odds during London could shift this read
US ISM Manufacturing and Prices Paid at 15:00 UTC are the main NY-session risk
V-shaped rebound from the 1.1104 week low capped at 1.1214, then a lower high and a deep retracement into mid-range.
Thursday's NY session flush to the 1.1104 week low reversed into a sharp rally that topped at the 1.1214 week high in Friday's Asia session. A lower high at 1.1206 preceded the NY session reversal to the 1.1136 Friday low, near the 61.8% retracement, as the USD rebounded on tech risk-off. The Sunday open gapped below the 1.1166 Friday close and printed a Sunday low at 1.1149, leaving price under both EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI(14) near 41, mid-range between 1.1104 and 1.1214.
Support: 1.11491, 1.11361, 1.11042
Resistance: 1.11659, 1.12056, 1.12143
What it said to watch
An H1 close back above the 1.1166 Friday close fills the weekend gap and regains EMA20
Failure to hold the 1.1149 Sunday low and the 1.1136 Friday low exposes the 1.1104 week low
A push through the 1.1206 lower high and the 1.1214 week high breaks the range top
Eurozone retail sales and PMIs at 07:00–08:55 UTC, then ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC, could materially shift this read