Monday's Asia-to-London rally from the 1.1153 week open topped at the 1.1237 week high. Price has since retraced into the 50–61.8% zone of that Monday impulse, with lower highs at 1.1229, 1.1206 and 1.1199. Tuesday compressed into a ~31-pip range above the 1.1175 Tuesday low, and both the London-open and NY pushes toward 1.1200 met rejection as JOLTS and Factory Orders beats kept USD firm. Price now sits just below EMA(20) at 1.1190, with RSI(14) near 46 and ATR(14) contracted to ~10 pips ahead of the overnight US midterm results.
Support: 1.11748, 1.11534, 1.11361
Resistance: 1.11901, 1.12062, 1.12366
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.1175 Tuesday low breaks the base and exposes the 1.1153 week open, then the 1.1136 Friday low
H1 close above the lower-highs trendline and the 1.1206 Tuesday high reopens the 1.1237 week high
Holding back above EMA(20) at 1.1190 would neutralise the lower-highs read
US midterm results overnight could materially shift this read, with Senate control the swing factor
Eurozone flash HICP at 10:00 UTC Wed (f/c 4%, core 2.5%) and US ADP at 13:15 UTC are the next scheduled catalysts
From the 1.1153 weekly open, London drove Monday's rally to the 1.1237 week high, but the move faded into NY and Tuesday has compressed into a 1.1175–1.1206 range, with the tue high followed by successively lower highs. The tue low at 1.1175 held three tests across London and NY even as firm JOLTS and factory orders gave USD a mild bid ahead of the midterms. Price sits on EMA(20) near 1.1191 and around the 50% retracement of the Monday rally, with RSI(14) at 44 and ATR near 10.5 pips.
Support: 1.1175, 1.1153, 1.1136
Resistance: 1.1206, 1.1214, 1.1237
What it said to watch
An H1 close below the 1.1175 tue low breaks the range floor and exposes the 1.1153 weekly open, then the 1.1136 friday low
A close above the 1.1206 tue high negates the lower highs and opens the 1.1214 prior high and 1.1237 week high
US midterm results overnight could materially shift this read
Euro-area flash HICP Wed 10:00 GMT and US ADP 13:15 UTC are the next scheduled range-break risks
Lower highs from week high above a flat 1.1175 floor.
Monday's London rally from the 1.1153 weekly open met rejection at the 1.1237 week high. Since then H1 has printed lower highs at 1.1229, the 1.1206 tuesday high and 1.1201, while the 1.1175 tuesday low held three tests. That floor lines up with the 61.8% retracement of the friday low-to-week high leg. Price is flat around EMA(20) near 1.1191 with RSI(14) in the mid-40s, as Tuesday's JOLTS beat and pre-midterm caution kept USD firm; the 1.1136 friday low sits below.
Support: 1.1175, 1.1153, 1.1136
Resistance: 1.1206, 1.1237
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.1175 tuesday low breaks the floor and exposes the 1.1153 weekly open
H1 close above the 1.1206 tuesday high breaks the lower highs line and reopens the 1.1237 week high
A move through the 1.1136 friday low would erase Monday's advance
US midterm results from ~23:00 UTC and Wed 10:00 GMT flash HICP (f/c 4.0% y/y) could materially shift this read
20:01 UTC
Range after Monday's spike, compressing · RSI 53 · price 1.11956
Higher lows since Thursday, lower highs from Monday peak.
Monday's London-session rally from the 1.1149 week open to the 1.1237 week high has been retraced by roughly 70%. Tuesday has held a 1.1175–1.1206 band, and the Tuesday low at 1.1175 held twice, including on the NY-session dip after the US JOLTS beat. Price is back above EMA(20) near 1.1191 with RSI(14) flat around 53, as higher lows since Thursday's 1.1104 trough meet the lower highs from Monday's peak heading into the US midterms.
Support: 1.1191, 1.11748, 1.11491
Resistance: 1.12062, 1.12366
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1206 Tuesday high clears the lower-highs line and reopens the 1.1237 week high
Failure to hold the 1.1175 Tuesday low exposes the 1.1149 week open and the higher-lows trendline
US midterm results overnight could materially shift this read
Wed 10:00 GMT flash HICP (f/c 4.0% y/y) and later US ADP are the next volatility points
19:01 UTC
Sideways after Monday spike, lower highs since · RSI 53 · price 1.11943
1.1175–1.1206 range under a lower-highs line.
Monday's London-open rally from the 1.1153 weekly open tagged a week high at 1.1237 as oil slumped, then renewed US-Iran strikes and firm US data drew about half of it back into NY. Tuesday has held a 1.1175–1.1206 range. The range low sits on the 61.8% retracement of the impulse from Friday's low and has been tested three times, while each rally prints a lower high along the lower-highs line. Price is sitting on EMA(20) near 1.1191, which has been flattening, with RSI(14) flat around 53.
Support: 1.1191, 1.1175, 1.1153
Resistance: 1.1206, 1.1237
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.1175 range low breaks the impulse fib support and exposes the 1.1153 weekly open
H1 close above the 1.1206 range top and the lower-highs line reopens the 1.1237 week high
Repeated H1 closes back under ema20 near 1.1191 would keep the drift toward the range low in play
US midterm results from ~23:00 UTC tonight and Wed's 10:00 UTC eurozone flash HICP (f/c 4.0%) could break the range
Wed US ADP (13:15 UTC) and ISM Services (15:00 UTC) add NY-session event risk
Lower highs from 1.1237 against a flat 1.1175 base.
The monday rally ran from the 1.1153 weekly open to the 1.1237 week high into London open, helped by the energy de-escalation the digest flags. Renewed Iran strikes then knocked it back to the 50% retracement. Since then, supply has capped each bounce at lower highs of 1.1229 and 1.1206, while the 1.1175 swing low has absorbed three tests across Tuesday's London and NY sessions. Price sits on EMA(20) near 1.1191 with RSI(14) flat around 51, a compressing consolidation just under the 1.1200 pivot, with the friday low at 1.1136 the next reference beneath the base.
Support: 1.1175, 1.1153, 1.1136
Resistance: 1.1206, 1.1237
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.1175 swing low breaks the base and exposes the weekly open at 1.1153, then the friday low at 1.1136
H1 close above the 1.1206 lower high breaks the descending sequence and reopens the 1.1237 week high
ECB Nagel/Sleijpen tonight, US midterm results overnight and Wednesday's 10:00 UTC flash HICP (f/c 4.0%) could materially shift this read
Monday's oil-relief rally ran from the 1.1153 weekly open through Asia into London and topped at the 1.1237 monday high. Since then price has printed lower highs while basing on a flat floor at 1.1175, which is both Tuesday's low and the 61.8% retracement of the Friday-to-Monday advance. The firm JOLTS and factory-orders prints during NY hours knocked price back to that tuesday low before the dip was absorbed, leaving EUR/USD compressed below the 1.1206 tuesday high and the lower-highs line near 1.1197, sitting on EMA(20) at 1.1191 with RSI(14) a neutral ~56.
Support: 1.1175, 1.1153, 1.1136
Resistance: 1.1206, 1.1214, 1.1237
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.1175 tuesday low breaks the floor and exposes the 1.1153 weekly open, then the 1.1136 friday low
H1 close above the lower-highs line and the 1.1206 tuesday high reopens the 1.1214 friday high and 1.1237 monday high
ECB's Nagel and Sleijpen from 18:00 UTC and US midterm results overnight could materially shift this read
Wed Eurozone flash HICP at 10:00 UTC (f/c 4.0% y/y) and ISM Services at 15:00 UTC are the next catalysts for a break of the compression
16:01 UTC
Higher lows since Thursday, stalling below Monday's high · RSI 55 · price 1.11933
Narrowing range: rising lows vs lower highs since Monday's high.
From the 1.1153 weekly open, the week's dominant move came in Monday's London session, a rally to the 1.1237 week high on the oil-relief move, with the 1.1149 week low left behind at the open. Since then, lower highs at 1.1206 (the Tuesday high, London open) and 1.1201 have formed. The Tuesday low at 1.1175 held in both the Asia session and ahead of NY, and the higher-lows line from Friday's 1.1136 is still intact. Price is pinned near EMA(20) and the 50% retrace of Monday's rally at 1.1193, with RSI(14) flat in the mid-50s and ATR(14) compressing to about 11 pips.
Support: 1.1175, 1.1149
Resistance: 1.1206, 1.1237
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1206 tuesday high breaks the lower-highs line and reopens the 1.1237 week high
Failure to hold the 1.1175 tuesday low breaks the higher-lows sequence and exposes the 1.1149 week low
ECB's Nagel (18:00 UTC) and Sleijpen (18:15 UTC), plus US midterm results from ~23:00 UTC, could resolve the narrowing range
Wednesday's Eurozone flash HICP at 10:00 UTC (headline f/c 4.0%) is the next scheduled catalyst for a break of either line
15:02 UTC
Uptrend from Thursday's low, stalling below week high · RSI 49 · price 1.11879
Lower highs pressing a flat 1.1175 floor.
The thu-mon rally from 1.1104 peaked at the 1.1237 week high during Monday's London open, as the dollar and oil slid on US-Iran diplomacy. Since then the pair has printed lower highs, at 1.1229 Monday, then Tuesday's 1.1206 day high and a 1.1201 probe in the first hour of NY, against a day low near 1.1175 that held three times. Price sits on the 38.2% retracement of the thu-mon rally, a pip under EMA(20) and above EMA(50), with RSI(14) flat near 49 and ATR(14) compressed to about 11 pips.
Support: 1.11748, 1.11534, 1.11361
Resistance: 1.12062, 1.12366
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.1175 day low exposes the 50% retracement at 1.1170 and the weekly open at 1.1153, which lines up with the 61.8% level
Failure to hold the weekly open would put the friday low at 1.1136 in view
Close above the lower highs trendline and the 1.1206 day high would reopen the 1.1237 week high
JOLTS at 15:00 UTC and US midterm results from about 23:00 UTC could break the compression
Eurozone flash HICP Wed 10:00 UTC: the core vs headline split could shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since Monday's 1.1237 peak.
EUR/USD ran from Friday's NY low at 1.1136 to a week high of 1.1237 in Monday's London session as oil and the dollar eased on US–Iran diplomacy headlines. The high was rejected, and the pair has since printed a lower-high sequence at 1.1229, 1.1209 and the 1.1206 Tuesday high as oil rebounded. Price has slipped back under the 1.1200 pivot and the ema20 near 1.1188, and is now testing the 61.8% fib of the Friday-to-Monday leg at 1.1175 with RSI(14) near 40.
Support: 1.1175, 1.1153, 1.1136
Resistance: 1.1188, 1.1206, 1.1237
What it said to watch
H1 close below 1.1175 (61.8% fib) extends the lower-low sequence toward the week open at 1.1153, then the friday low at 1.1136
Recovery above the ema20 and the 1.1206 tuesday high breaks the lower-high trendline and puts the 1.1237 week high back in play
US JOLTS and Factory Orders at 15:00 UTC, then midterm results from ~23:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
Eurozone flash HICP Wed 10:00 UTC (f/c 4.0% y/y) after last week's national undershoot is the main EUR-side risk
Lower highs since 1.1237 week high, testing session low.
Monday's London session carried price from the 1.1149 monday low to the 1.1237 week high as US-Iran diplomacy knocked oil and the dollar lower. That move met rejection under the 1.1235–1.1250 cap, and NY hours gave much of it back. Since then H1 has printed a sequence of lower highs, with Tuesday's high at 1.1206. Price has slipped back below EMA(20) near 1.1189 and is pressing the 1.1175 session low, around the 61.8% retrace of Monday's impulse, with RSI(14) at 42.
Support: 1.1175, 1.1149, 1.1136
Resistance: 1.1189, 1.1206, 1.1237
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.1175 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.1149 monday low
Reclaim of EMA(20) at 1.1189 and a close above the 1.1206 tuesday high breaks the lower-highs trendline
Loss of 1.1149 exposes the 1.1136 friday low, near the 1.1135 pivot flagged in the digest
US JOLTS at 15:00 UTC today and overnight midterm results could materially shift this read
Eurozone flash HICP Wed 10:00 UTC; a soft core print follows Friday's 2.8% miss
Lower highs since 1.1237 week high; Thursday-Monday higher lows intact.
Monday's Asia-to-London rally ran from the 1.1153 weekly open to a 1.1237 week high as oil and the dollar slid on US-Iran diplomacy hopes. Price has since retraced to the 61.8% fib of that rally, with lower highs at 1.1229 in the NY session and 1.1206 at Tuesday's London open. Price now sits just below EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) near 45. The 1.1177 Tuesday low is the nearest floor, and the 1.1136 Friday low sits beneath the weekly open.
Support: 1.1177, 1.1153, 1.1136
Resistance: 1.1192, 1.1206, 1.1237
What it said to watch
H1 close back above ema20 at 1.1192 and the 1.1206 tuesday high breaks the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 1.1177 tuesday low exposes the 1.1153 weekly open, then the 1.1136 friday low
US JOLTS at 15:00 UTC and overnight midterm results could materially shift this read
EZ flash HICP Wed 10:00 UTC (f/c 4.0%) — a miss echoing Oct 30's undershoot pressures the 1.1136 area; acceptance above the 1.1237 week high resumes the rally structure
Pennant: lower highs from 1.1237 week high, higher lows from the 1.1149 weekly open area.
Monday's London open produced this week's main impulse. Price ran from the weekly open at 1.1153 to a 1.1237 week high as softer oil and Iran-diplomacy headlines weighed on USD, and it has since compressed into a pennant of lower highs and higher lows. Today's London push stalled at a 1.1206 lower high and faded back under EMA(20) near 1.1193, with RSI(14) flat in the mid-40s. The Asia-session Tuesday low at 1.1177 sits near the 61.8% retracement of Monday's impulse and anchors the pennant base.
Support: 1.1177, 1.1153, 1.1136
Resistance: 1.1193, 1.1206, 1.1237
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1206 lower high breaks the pennant top and reopens the 1.1237 week high
Loss of the 1.1177 Tuesday low breaks the pennant base and the higher-low sequence, exposing the weekly open at 1.1153 and the Friday low at 1.1136
US JOLTS at 15:00 UTC and overnight midterm results could resolve the compression; a GOP Senate hold is the USD-side surprise
EZ flash HICP Wed 10:00 UTC (f/c 4.0%) is the next EUR-side catalyst for the range
Lower highs off 1.1237 into a 1.1177–1.1206 range.
Monday's London session drove the week's impulse from the 1.1149 weekly low to the 1.1237 week high as oil and the USD slid on US-Iran diplomacy. NY then gave back about half, and price has since compressed below 1.1200. Highs have stepped lower at 1.1229 and 1.1206, and today saw two rejections at the 1.1206 range top. Price now sits on the 50% fib of Monday's leg and is hugging EMA(20) near 1.1192, with RSI(14) flat around 48 and the Asian low at 1.1177 marking the range floor.
Support: 1.1177, 1.1149
Resistance: 1.1206, 1.1229, 1.1237
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1206 range top and the lower-high trendline reopens the 1.1229 lower high and the 1.1237 week high
Failure to hold the 1.1177 Asian low, just under the 61.8% fib, exposes the 1.1149 weekly low
US JOLTS at 15:00 UTC and midterm results overnight could materially shift this read
EZ flash HICP Wed 10:00 UTC (f/c 3.9% y/y) is the next catalyst for a break of the range
Higher lows since Thursday; consolidating below week high.
EUR/USD ran from the 1.1153 weekly open to a 1.1237 week high in Monday's London session as oil and the dollar slid on US-Iran diplomacy. It gave back about half of that in NY hours as firmer US data steadied the dollar. Tuesday's Asian low at 1.1177 held near the 61.8% retracement of Monday's impulse, leaving the higher-lows trendline from Thursday's 1.1104 low intact. Price has since reclaimed the EMA20 near 1.1192, with RSI(14) back in the mid-50s, and is pressing today's high at 1.1206 below the week high and the 1.1250 round number, the top of the 1.1235–1.1250 supply band.
Support: 1.1192, 1.1177, 1.1153
Resistance: 1.1206, 1.1237, 1.1250
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.1177 Asian low would break the higher-lows sequence and expose the 1.1153 weekly open
Acceptance above the 1.1237 week high and the 1.1250 round number would extend the higher-high structure
US JOLTS at 15:00 UTC and overnight midterm results could materially shift this read
EZ flash HICP Wed 10:00 UTC (f/c 3.9%, core 2.5%) is the next scheduled volatility risk
08:01 UTC
Sideways, fading off week high · RSI 45 · price 1.11923
Lower highs from 1.1237 against higher lows from 1.1149, contracting around EMA(20).
Monday's rally ran from the 1.1153 weekly open to a 1.1237 week high into London, as falling oil weighed on USD and Kazimir's hawkish ECB remarks lifted EUR. Supply capped the move there, and price faded through NY hours into a tight Asian range. It now sits on EMA(20) near the 50% retracement of Monday's rally, with RSI(14) near 45. Lower highs off the week high are pressing toward the 1.1177 asian low and the higher-lows line from Monday's open, keeping price inside the 1.1104–1.1237 range of the past four sessions.
Support: 1.1177, 1.1153, 1.1136
Resistance: 1.1200, 1.1237
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.1177 asian low breaks the higher-lows line and exposes the 1.1153 weekly open
Failure to hold 1.1153 puts the 1.1136 friday low back in play, near the 1.1135 pivot cited in the digest
H1 close above the lower-highs line and the 1.1200 round number reopens a test of the 1.1237 week high
US JOLTS at 15:00 UTC and overnight midterm results could materially shift this read, ahead of Wednesday's EZ flash HICP at 10:00 UTC
Higher lows since Thursday; pullback from 1.1237 holding above 1.1177.
Monday's London-morning leg ran from the 1.1150 week open to the 1.1237 week high on hawkish ECB remarks from Kazimir, falling oil and the Eurozone PMI beat. Supply capped a NY lower high at 1.1229, and price slipped back below the 1.1200 psych level. The Asia low at 1.1177 held just beyond the 61.8% retracement of Monday's leg, and price is now coiling at the 50% level on a flat EMA(20) with RSI(14) in the mid-40s, keeping the higher-lows sequence from Thursday's 1.1104 and the 1.1136 Friday low intact.
Support: 1.1177, 1.1150, 1.1136
Resistance: 1.1200, 1.1229, 1.1237
What it said to watch
An H1 close back above the 1.1200 psych level reopens the 1.1229 lower high and the 1.1237 week high
A break of the 1.1177 Asia low and the higher-lows line exposes the 1.1150 week open
Loss of the 1.1136 Friday low would print a lower low and break the week's higher-lows structure
US midterm results and JOLTS at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read; Wednesday's Eurozone flash HICP at 10:00 UTC is the next scheduled test
Monday impulse half-retraced; tight 1.1177–1.1200 range around EMA(20).
Monday's London session drove EUR from the weekly open at 1.1153 to a week high of 1.1237, helped by the euro-area PMI beats, Kažimír's tightening call and the oil slump. The pair has since faded about half the move as USD steadied in NY. Tuesday's Asia low at 1.1177 held just under the 61.8% of that impulse, and price is now flat around the ema20 near 1.1191, with RSI(14) slipping to the mid-40s. The rising lows from Thursday's 1.1104 remain intact, but supply has capped every recovery below the round number at 1.1200 since Monday's NY session.
Support: 1.11767, 1.11659, 1.11534
Resistance: 1.1191, 1.1200, 1.12366
What it said to watch
Hourly close above the round number at 1.1200 reopens Monday's week high at 1.1237
Break below the asia low at 1.1177 puts the prior close at 1.1166 and the rising lows line in play
Failure to hold the weekly open at 1.1153 breaks the higher-low sequence that has held since Thursday
US JOLTS at 15:00 UTC and ECB Nagel/Sleijpen from 18:00 UTC today could shift the range read
US midterm results overnight and Wednesday's EZ flash HICP at 10:00 UTC are the larger risk to this structure
05:01 UTC
Pullback within this week's rebound, momentum fading · RSI 54 · price 1.11913
Lower highs from Monday's 1.1237 peak; price testing EMA(20) at the 50% retrace.
EURUSD rallied about 85 pips from the 1.1153 weekly open into a 1.1237 week high in Monday's London session, lifted by Kazimir's hawkish ECB remarks and an oil-led USD dip. It met rejection there, and the ISM beat plus weak German retail sales drove a NY-session slide that has since printed a lower high at 1.1229. Price is now sitting on EMA(20) near 1.1191, at the 50% retrace of Monday's rally, with the Asian range holding between the 1.1177 asia low and the 1.2000 round number and RSI(14) back near mid-range.
Support: 1.1177, 1.1153, 1.1149
Resistance: 1.1200, 1.1229, 1.1237
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 1.1200 round number and the lower-highs trendline would neutralise the pullback read, putting the 1.1229 lower high and 1.1237 week high back in focus
Failure to hold the 1.1177 asia low (near the 61.8% retrace) exposes the 1.1153 weekly open and the 1.1149 monday low
US midterm results overnight could materially shift this read
US JOLTS and Factory Orders at 15:00 UTC are scheduled USD risk
Wednesday's Eurozone flash HICP at 10:00 UTC (f/c 3.9% y/y) is the main EUR event
04:02 UTC
Uptrend from Thursday's low, in a corrective pullback · RSI 52 · price 1.11866
Higher lows intact; lower highs since Monday's week high.
Monday's London-open leg carried EUR/USD from the 1.1153 weekly open to a 1.1237 week high as oil and the dollar slid on US-Iran headlines. A rejection followed, and the pair has printed a run of lower highs since, slipping below EMA(20) as USD firmed on the ISM beat. Price now sits on the 38.2% fib of the 1.1104–1.1237 advance near 1.1186, with EMA(50) just beneath, RSI(14) cooled to around 52 and the Asia low at 1.1177 holding so far.
Support: 1.1177, 1.1170, 1.1153
Resistance: 1.1190, 1.1229, 1.1237
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 50% fib at 1.1170 and the higher-lows trendline from Thursday puts the 1.1153 weekly open back in view
H1 close back above EMA(20) and 1.1197 breaks the lower-highs sequence, reopening the 1.1229 lower high and 1.1237 week high
US midterm results through Asia/London hours and JOLTS at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
ECB Nagel/Sleijpen at 18:00 UTC are near-term event risk; Wednesday's euro area HICP flash (f/c 3.9%) is the larger one
03:02 UTC
Pullback within a corrective rebound, momentum fading · RSI 46 · price 1.11846
Higher lows since Thursday's 1.1104 base; lower highs since Monday's 1.1237 peak.
Monday's London session carried EUR/USD from the weekly open near 1.1153 to a week high of 1.1237 as oil and the dollar slid on US-Iran deal hopes. The move met rejection there and has since printed a run of lower highs, with the NY-session drop arriving as the USD firmed on upbeat US data. Price is back below EMA(20) near 1.1191 and is testing the 61.8% fib of Monday's rally at 1.1183 in a tight Asia session, holding just above EMA(50) with RSI(14) at 46 and the Friday close at 1.1166 underneath.
Support: 1.11825, 1.11659, 1.11534
Resistance: 1.11914, 1.12085, 1.12366
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 61.8% fib at 1.1183 exposes the Friday close at 1.1166 and the weekly open at 1.1153
Close above the lower-highs trendline and the 1.1209 lower high would break the sequence and reopen the week high at 1.1237
US midterm results and Iran headlines through Asia/Europe hours, plus JOLTS at 15:00 UTC and ECB Nagel/Sleijpen at 18:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
Wednesday's euro area HICP flash (f/c 3.9%) is the main event risk for a retest of the 1.1235–1.1250 area near the week high
Higher lows since Thursday's 1.1104 low; lower highs off the 1.1237 week high.
Monday's push into the London open lifted EURUSD from the 1.1149 monday low through Friday's 1.1214 high to a 1.1237 week high, as oil-driven USD weakness ran. The break failed, and NY hours, including the ISM-beat bar, printed a string of lower highs back to the 61.8% fib of the move near 1.1183. Price now sits below EMA(20) at ~1.1193 and pinned on EMA(50), with RSI(14) slipping to ~41, while the Thursday-to-Monday higher lows and the 1.1166 prior close sit underneath.
Support: 1.11836, 1.11659, 1.11491
Resistance: 1.1193, 1.12143, 1.12366
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 1.1214 friday high reopens the 1.1237 week high and the 1.1200–1.1250 supply zone
Failure to hold the 61.8% fib at 1.1183 exposes the 1.1166 prior close and the higher-lows trendline
A break below the 1.1149 monday low invalidates the higher-lows structure from Thursday
JOLTS at 15:00 UTC and overnight US midterm results could materially shift this read; euro-area flash HICP Wednesday 10:00 UTC follows
01:02 UTC
Pullback within recovery from 1.1104 low · RSI 39 · price 1.11868
Lower highs from Monday's 1.1237 peak; testing 38.2% retrace.
The rebound off Thursday's 1.1104 post-GDP low ran to a week high of 1.1237 in Monday's London session, as oil-driven USD weakness lifted EUR into the cited 1.1200–1.1250 supply zone. Rejection there produced lower highs through NY hours, and price slipped back below EMA(20) near 1.1197. Price now sits on the 38.2% fib of the Thursday-to-Monday leg at 1.1184 and is testing EMA(50), with RSI(14) easing toward 39.
Support: 1.1184, 1.1170, 1.1149
Resistance: 1.1197, 1.1229, 1.1237
What it said to watch
Hourly close below the 38.2% fib at 1.1184 opens the 50% fib at 1.1170, then the Monday low at 1.1149
Recovery above EMA(20) at ~1.1197 and the 1.1229 lower high would negate the pullback read and put the week high at 1.1237 back in view
US midterms, JOLTS at 15:00 UTC and ECB's Nagel at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read; euro-area flash HICP Wednesday 10:00 UTC is the larger event risk
00:02 UTC
Uptrend, pulling back from week high · RSI 48 · price 1.11878
Higher lows since Thursday; Monday lower highs off 1.1237.
EUR/USD has built higher lows since Thursday's 1.1104 low. On the oil slump, Monday's Asia-into-London rally cleared Friday's 1.1214 prior high and tagged a 1.1237 week high, but price could not hold above the breakout. The NY session faded the move after the ISM beat, and a run of lower highs took price back below EMA(20) at 1.1193 to the 38.2% fib at 1.1186, just above EMA(50) at 1.1183, with RSI(14) cooling from near 71 to 48.
Support: 1.1183, 1.1153, 1.1136
Resistance: 1.1193, 1.1214, 1.1237
What it said to watch
H1 close below EMA(50) at 1.1183 and the 38.2% fib opens the weekly open at 1.1153, near the 61.8% retracement
Failure to hold Friday's 1.1136 swing low would break the higher-low sequence from Thursday
A reclaim of EMA(20) at 1.1193, then a close back above the 1.1214 prior high, would negate the false break and put the 1.1237 week high back in play
A break of the Monday lower highs trendline would signal the pullback is stalling
US midterm results overnight, JOLTS at 15:00 UTC and ECB's Nagel/Sleijpen from 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read ahead of Wednesday's flash HICP