1.1104–1.1273 range; lower high at 1.1251 vs rising lows.
EUR/USD has rotated inside a 1.1104–1.1273 range for three weeks, with the 1.1251 lower high and rising lows at the 1.1104 range low and 1.1131 swing low squeezing the structure. The hot US CPI print drove a rejection from 1.1251 down to the 1.1145 CPI low, leaving price below both EMAs as EMA(20) at 1.1193 crosses under EMA(50) at 1.1195, with RSI at 41.9. ATR(14) has lifted to 27 pips from a 24.5 trough, ending the recent compression.
Support: 1.11448, 1.11308, 1.11042
Resistance: 1.1193, 1.12511, 1.12728
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 1.1131 swing low breaks the rising-lows line and exposes the 1.1104 range low
Recovery stalling at 1.1198–1.1211 (50–61.8% of the CPI drop fib, next to the ema20) keeps the lower-highs sequence intact
H4 close back above 1.1200 and the ema20 neutralises the post-CPI drop; above the 1.1251 lower high puts the 1.1273 range high back in play
Fed's Bowman/Paulson at 23:30 UTC, then Wed German final HICP (07:00 UTC) and Lagarde (09:45 UTC) could materially shift this read
18:01 UTC
Range-bound, rolling lower after a lower high · RSI 40 · price 1.11553
3-week range 1.1104–1.1273; lower high at 1.1251, higher low at 1.1131.
EUR/USD has been confined to a 1.1104–1.1273 range for three weeks. The hot US CPI print produced a rejection from the 1.1251 lower high and sent price back below the flat, converged ema20/50 cluster at 1.1196. Price now sits near the 78.6% retracement of the rally fib off the 1.1131 swing low, with RSI at 39.6. ATR has turned up from 24.5 to 28.2 pips, so volatility is re-expanding rather than compressing.
Support: 1.1131, 1.1104
Resistance: 1.1196, 1.1251, 1.1273
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 1.1131 swing low breaks the higher-low sequence and exposes the 1.1104 range low
Recovery back above the ema20/50 cluster at 1.1196 would neutralise the CPI rejection and return focus to the 1.1251 lower high
A close above the 1.1273 range high would mark a range break
Eurozone HICP Wed 07:00 UTC and Lagarde 09:45 UTC could materially shift this read
Fed's Bowman 20:30 UTC on 25bp vs 50bp framing is the near-term USD risk
14:01 UTC
Range-bound, rolled over after hot US CPI · RSI 46 · price 1.11868
Contracting range: lower highs from 1.1273, higher lows from 1.1104.
EUR/USD has held a 1.1104–1.1273 range for three weeks. Lower highs at 1.1273 and 1.1251 and higher lows at 1.1104 and 1.1131 are tightening the swings, while ATR(14) compressed from ~32 to ~25 pips. The hotter-than-forecast US October CPI (headline 0.4% vs 0.3%, core MoM 0.3% vs 0.2%) produced a rejection from the 1.1251 lower high and a ~65-pip drop back below the flat ema20 and ema50, leaving price near the 50% fib of the 1.1131–1.1251 leg with RSI at 46.3.
Support: 1.11308, 1.11042
Resistance: 1.12003, 1.12511, 1.12728
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 1.1131 swing low breaks the higher-lows sequence and exposes the 1.1104 range low
Recovery and close back above the ema20 at 1.1200 would neutralise the CPI rejection and refocus on the 1.1251 lower high
A close above the 1.1273 range high would break the contracting range to the upside
Fed's Bowman tonight, EZ HICP Wed 07:00 UTC (f/c 2.8%) and Lagarde Wed 09:45 UTC could materially shift this read
ATR uptick off the compression low is worth tracking for range-break follow-through
1.1105–1.1273 range; higher low at 1.1131, range top tested three times.
EUR/USD has spent three weeks in a 1.1105–1.1273 range, with the range top capping three separate tests. Friday's post-payrolls slide stopped at a higher low of 1.1131. The oil slump and Iran de-escalation then erased that USD bid, and the rebound has retraced about 70% of the 1.1268–1.1131 drop, stalling below the 1.1251 swing high. EMA20 has crossed back above EMA50 with price above both, while ATR(14) has compressed from roughly 31 to 24 pips going into US CPI.
Support: 1.1202, 1.1131, 1.1105
Resistance: 1.1251, 1.1270
What it said to watch
US October CPI at 13:30 UTC (core MoM f/c 0.2%) could materially shift this read
An H4 close above the 1.1270 range top would mark a range break after three failed tests
Failure to hold 1.1200 and ema20 puts the 1.1131 swing low back in focus and breaks the higher-lows trendline
A close below the 1.1105 range low would turn the structure into a lower-low sequence
Euro area HICP on Wednesday at 07:00 UTC (f/c 2.8%) and Lagarde at 09:45 UTC are the next EUR-side risks
1.1105–1.1273 range; higher low at 1.1131, lower high at 1.1244.
EUR/USD has held a 1.1105–1.1273 range for three weeks. The 1.1270 area capped twice to form a double top, and Friday's post-NFP slide to the 1.1131 swing low left a higher low above the 1.1105 range low. This week's rebound has cleared the 61.8% retrace of that NFP slide and pushed EMA(20) back above EMA(50), while ATR(14) has compressed from ~32 to 23.8 pips heading into today's US CPI.
Support: 1.11996, 1.1131, 1.1105
Resistance: 1.1244, 1.1272
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 1.1244 lower high opens a retest of the 1.1270 double top area
Slip back below ema20 near 1.1200 returns focus to the 1.1131 swing low
Break of the 1.1105 range low ends the higher-low sequence and the range read
US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read; EZ HICP Wed 07:00 UTC follows
02:01 UTC
Range-bound, rebounding from range lows · RSI 56 · price 1.12262
Three-week range 1.1104-1.1273, higher low at 1.1131.
EURUSD has held a 1.1104-1.1273 range for three weeks. Friday's NFP-driven drop stopped at 1.1131, a higher low than the late-October range low at 1.1104. The rebound since, helped by oil relief and US-Iran deal hopes, has cleared the 61.8% retracement of the 1.1273→1.1131 leg and is now retesting the 1.1237 prior high, with price back above both EMA20 and EMA50. ATR(14) near 23 pips sits mid-regime, neither compressed nor expanding.
Support: 1.1200, 1.1131, 1.1104
Resistance: 1.1237, 1.1273
What it said to watch
US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read; the market digest frames a soft core print as the larger-move scenario given crowded EUR shorts
H4 close above the 1.1237 prior high opens the path to the 1.1268-1.1273 range high
Failure to hold the 1.1200 round number returns focus to the 1.1131 nfp low and the higher-lows line
A break of the 1.1104 range low would end the range read