Higher low at 1.1131 vs 1.1104; recovering 61.8% of NFP leg.
Friday's blowout US payrolls drove a 140-pip slide from the 1.1273 swing high to the 1.1131 friday low. Monday's recovery, helped by lower oil and a softer dollar, has already retraced to the 61.8% fib of that leg and lifted price back above the 1.1200 round number and both EMAs. The 1.1131 low holds above late October's 1.1104 trough, so the higher-low line stays intact inside a broad 1.1104–1.1273 range, with ATR(14) near 25 pips showing no compression.
Support: 1.1200, 1.1185, 1.1131
Resistance: 1.1244, 1.1273
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 1.1244 prior pivot exposes the 1.1273 swing high and the top of the range
Slip back below the 1.1200 round number and the 38.2% fib at 1.1185 reopens the 1.1131 friday low
Break below the friday low and the rising higher-low line would turn the structure into a lower-low sequence
US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC (core m/m f/c 0.2%) could materially shift this read, with Eurozone HICP following Wed 07:00 UTC
1.1104-1.1273 range; double top at 1.1273, higher lows.
The double top at 1.1273 gave way on Friday's blowout US NFP, which dropped the pair to a friday low of 1.1131 that still sits above the 1.1104 range low, so higher lows are intact. A softer USD and lower oil have since lifted price back to the 50% retracement of that drop near 1.1200, retesting the broken 1.1203-1.1212 neckline zone, with the 61.8% fib at 1.1219 just above. Both EMAs are flat and price sits only marginally above them, and ATR(14) near 25 pips shows a contained regime rather than trend expansion.
Support: 1.1175, 1.1131, 1.1104
Resistance: 1.1219, 1.1244, 1.1273
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 1.1244 lower high would negate the double top and reopen the 1.1273 range top
Rejection at the 61.8% fib (1.1219) and a break of the 1.1175 swing low would put the 1.1131 friday low back in play
Loss of 1.1104 range low would break the higher-low sequence and the range read
US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read; EZ HICP Wed 07:00 UTC is the next risk
14:01 UTC
Sideways, rebounding inside a three-week range · RSI 50 · price 1.11926
Range 1.1104-1.1273 with lower highs from 1.1273 and higher lows from 1.1104 converging.
EURUSD has spent three weeks inside a 1.1104-1.1273 range. Since the range high at 1.1273 the pair has printed lower highs (1.1268, then 1.1244), while the post-NFP selloff stalled at a 1.1131 swing low, above the 1.1104 range low, so the swings are compressing into a triangle-like shape. Monday's rebound came on a softer USD and oil relief. It has retraced past the 38.2% fib at 1.1185 and is now sitting on EMA20 just under the 1.1200 round number, with ATR(14) near 26 pips showing a contained regime.
Support: 1.1185, 1.1131, 1.1104
Resistance: 1.1200, 1.1244, 1.1273
What it said to watch
An H4 close above the 1.1200 round number, which is also the 50% retracement, opens a test of the 1.1244 lower high and the descending trendline
A break above the 1.1273 range high would end the lower-highs sequence and the range read
Failure to hold the fib 38.2 at 1.1185 puts the 1.1131 swing low back in focus; losing that exposes the 1.1104 range low
US October CPI on Tue 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read; core MoM forecast 0.2%
ECB speakers on Tue and Eurozone HICP on Wed 07:00 UTC test December-hike pricing, with specs already heavily short EUR
Lower highs off 1.1273 inside 1.1104–1.1273 range, rebounding from nfp low.
EURUSD has spent three weeks inside a 1.1104–1.1273 range. Last week's push to the 1.1273 range high rolled over into lower highs, and Friday's NFP beat (165K vs 65K) extended the slide to the 1.1131 nfp low. The rebound toward 1.1170 is retracing the NFP leg from beneath both EMAs. The 1.1200 round number lines up with the 50% fib and the EMA cluster, and ATR(14) near 25 pips points to a moderate rather than compressed regime.
Support: 1.1131, 1.1104
Resistance: 1.1200, 1.1243, 1.1273
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 1.1200 round number would reopen the 1.1243 lower high and the lower highs trendline
Failure to hold the 1.1131 nfp low exposes the 1.1104 range low
US CPI Tue 13:30 GMT could materially shift this read, as could Tuesday's ECB speakers
Eurozone HICP Wed 07:00 UTC is a second catalyst at the 1.1200 round number
Double top at 1.1270 completed; higher-low sequence broken by the Friday low.
The higher lows from late October (1.1104 → 1.1136 → 1.1175) gave way after a double top near 1.1270. Price broke the 1.1213 neckline and slid to the 1.1131 Friday low on the blowout US NFP and the EZ retail sales miss, with lower highs capping each bounce since. Price is holding just above the Friday low, both EMAs sit overhead, and ATR(14) near 26 pips is easing back from Friday's expansion as the pair consolidates under the 38.2% fib at 1.1185.
Support: 1.11308, 1.11042
Resistance: 1.1185, 1.12128, 1.12728
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 1.1131 Friday low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.1104 window low
Recovery through the 38.2% fib at 1.1185 and the lower highs line would put the 1.1213 neckline back in play
Reclaiming the neckline at 1.1213 undermines the double top breakdown
US CPI Tue 13:30 GMT and EZ HICP Wed 07:00 UTC could materially shift this read
02:01 UTC
Downleg within a broad range, momentum stretched · RSI 31 · price 1.11473
Double top at 1.1273/1.1268 broken; lower highs since the range high.
The 1.1104–1.1273 range is still intact, but price rejected twice near the range high and printed lower highs along a descending trendline. The strong 165K US NFP beat broke the 1.1200 round number, the double-top neckline, and price fell to the 1.1131 nfp low. Price is now below both EMAs and sits beyond the 61.8% fib of the 1.1104→1.1273 rally, with RSI near 31 and ATR(14) around 27 pips, so the leg is stretched toward the range low.
Support: 1.1131, 1.1104
Resistance: 1.1169, 1.1200, 1.1273
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 1.1131 nfp low exposes the 1.1104 range low; a break there ends the range read
Recovery back above the 61.8% fib at 1.1169 and the 1.1200 round number would neutralise the double-top breakdown
Close above the lower-high trendline and the 1.1273 range high would invalidate the topping structure
US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% m/m) could materially shift this read
Eurozone HICP Wed 07:00 UTC (f/c 2.8% y/y) could materially shift this read