Higher lows since Monday open; testing 61.8% of Wed–Fri decline.
EURUSD has climbed steadily off Friday's NFP-driven friday low at 1.1131 since the Monday open, as oil and US yields slid on US-Iran deal hopes. The London open drove the first leg, and a late NY session push carried price through 1.1200 to a monday high at 1.1225, which sits on the 61.8% retracement of the Wed–Fri decline. The ema20/fib50 confluence near 1.1200 lies just below, the pullback low at 1.1186 anchors the Monday trend of higher lows, and EMA(20) has just crossed above EMA(50), while RSI(14) near 71 shows an overbought, near-unbroken run.
Support: 1.1200, 1.11855, 1.11308
Resistance: 1.12245, 1.12435, 1.12728
What it said to watch
US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC (core MoM f/c 0.2%) could materially shift this read; Waller at 09:00 UTC and ECB speakers precede it
H1 close back below the ema20/fib50 zone at 1.1200 and the Monday trend line would undercut the higher-low sequence
Loss of the 1.1186 pullback low would expose the Wed–Fri decline structure again toward the friday low at 1.1131
A close above the 1.1225 monday high clears the 61.8% fib and opens the thu high at 1.1244, then the wed high at 1.1273
Overbought RSI(14) at the 61.8% fib is an area to monitor for rejection or a pause
Higher lows all Monday; 1.1200 cleared, 61.8% of post-NFP drop reclaimed.
EUR/USD has climbed steadily from the 1.1142 weekly open. London drove the push through 1.1170–1.1190, and a late-NY leg cleared the 1.1200 round number as the USD faded on US-Iran deal hopes, lower oil and slipping yields. Price holds above EMA(20) near 1.1194 and the Monday trendline of higher lows, and sits back above the 61.8% retrace (1.1216) of the post-NFP decline fib from Thursday's 1.1268 high; RSI(14) at 73 is overbought into the Monday high at 1.1225, with the Thu NY high at 1.1244 the next cap.
Support: 1.1200, 1.1194, 1.1142
Resistance: 1.12245, 1.12435, 1.12728
What it said to watch
US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC (core MoM f/c 0.2%, headline 0.3%) could materially shift this read; Fed's Waller speaks at 09:00 UTC
Hourly close back below the 1.1200 round number and the Monday trendline (~1.1211) would mark a false break
Close above the 1.1244 Thu NY high opens the path toward the 1.1273 prior-week high
Loss of EMA(20) near 1.1194 would expose the 1.1142 weekly open; Wed HICP (f/c 2.8% y/y) is the next EUR-side risk
Monday rallied steadily from the Asia session off Friday's 1.1131 post-NFP low. It cleared the 1.1200 round number late in the NY session as the USD faded on US-Iran deal hopes, lower oil and softer yields. Price now holds just above the 61.8% retracement of the week's 1.1273–1.1131 sell-off, with Monday's higher lows forming a rising trendline beneath and RSI(14) near 75 in overbought territory. The Friday high at 1.1235 and Thursday high at 1.1244 sit directly overhead, and the week high at 1.1273 still caps a sequence of lower highs.
Support: 1.1200, 1.1190, 1.1131
Resistance: 1.1235, 1.1244, 1.1273
What it said to watch
US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC (core m/m f/c 0.2%) could materially shift this read; Waller at 09:00 UTC precedes it
H1 close back below the 1.1200 round number and the 1.1190 swing low breaks Monday's higher-lows trendline and returns price into the NVP sell-off range
H1 close above the 1.1235 friday high and 1.1244 thu high would clear the week's lower-high sequence, leaving the 1.1273 week high as the next reference
Failure to hold above the fib 61.8% at ~1.1219 with RSI rolling from overbought would mark the recovery as a retracement only; the 1.1131 friday low is the lower reference
Higher lows since Monday open; late-NY break above 1.1200.
Monday has retraced most of Friday's NFP-driven slide. London drove the first leg off the 1.1142 weekly open, and a late-NY push cleared the 1.1200 round number as the dollar faded on US-Iran deal hopes and lower oil. Price now sits at the monday high near the 61.8% retracement of the 1.1273–1.1131 drop, above EMA(20) and a rising trendline of higher lows that held at the 1.1186 pullback low through the NY session. RSI(14) near 76 is in overbought territory.
Support: 1.1200, 1.1186, 1.1142
Resistance: 1.1224, 1.1244, 1.1273
What it said to watch
US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC (core m/m f/c 0.2%), with Waller at 09:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
An H1 close back below the 1.1200 round number would turn the late-NY breakout into a false break
A break of the rising trendline and the 1.1186 pullback low would expose the 1.1142 weekly open
A close above the 1.1224 monday high and the 61.8% level opens the 1.1244 thu high, then the 1.1273 prior high
Higher lows since Monday open, testing 1.1200 near the 55% retracement of the Wed-Fri drop.
Monday's rebound from 1.1134 has built steady higher lows along the Monday trendline. The London open leg did most of the work, and the NY session extended it to a 1.1209 Monday high as softer USD and lower oil on Iran-diplomacy headlines lifted EUR. That recovers roughly 55% of the Wed-Fri drop from the 1.1273 week high to the 1.1131 Friday low set after the NFP beat, with price pressing the 1.1200 psych level above ema20 (~1.1189) and the 61.8% fib at 1.1219 just overhead. RSI(14) near 66 is firm but not yet overbought.
Support: 1.1200, 1.1189, 1.1131
Resistance: 1.12085, 1.1219, 1.1273
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the Monday trendline and ema20 near 1.1189 would mark the rebound as a lower high beneath the week high
A close above the 1.1219 61.8% fib of the Wed-Fri drop opens Thursday's 1.1244 lower high and the 1.1273 week high
Failure to hold the 1.1200 psych level exposes the 1.1142 weekly open and the 1.1131 Friday low
US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC and ECB speakers (De Guindos 08:30, Lane 16:45 UTC) could materially shift this read
18:02 UTC
Rebound within a broader pullback, momentum stretched · RSI 71 · price 1.12023
Higher lows since Monday open, testing 50% of Wed–Fri drop.
Friday's post-NFP slide set the friday low at 1.1131, but EUR has climbed steadily since Monday's open on a softer USD and lower oil. The leg came in two steps: a London open push through 1.1170, then NY hours lifting price to the monday high at 1.1209. Price is now holding above the EMA(20) near 1.1185 and sitting on the 50% retracement of the Wed–Fri drop from the 1.1273 week high, with RSI(14) near 71 and the 61.8% fib at 1.1219 directly overhead.
Support: 1.1185, 1.1131
Resistance: 1.1209, 1.1219, 1.1273
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 61.8% fib at 1.1219 opens the path toward the 1.1273 week high
Break of the Monday higher lows line and the ema20 near 1.1185 would undo Monday's rebound structure, exposing the 1.1131 friday low
Failure to clear the 1.1209 monday high with RSI(14) rolling over from overbought would mark a rejection at 1.1200 resistance
US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC, with Waller at 09:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
ECB speaker slate Tue from 08:15 UTC adds event risk ahead of CPI
17:02 UTC
Rebound from Friday low, pressing 1.1200 · price 1.12043
Higher lows since Monday open beneath last week's lower-high sequence.
Monday has climbed about 60 pips off the 1.1142 weekly open and the 1.1131 Friday low. It ground higher through Asia, then got a London-open push as USD softened on lower oil and US-Iran talk headlines. Price now presses the 1.1205 session high, just above the 50% retrace of last week's 1.1273–1.1131 decline, with RSI(14) near 75 and EMA(20) trailing at roughly 1.1183. NY-hours pullbacks held the 1.1190 pullback low and the rising trendline drawn off Monday's higher lows.
Support: 1.1190, 1.1142, 1.1131
Resistance: 1.1205, 1.1219, 1.1244
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1205 session high and 1.1200 opens the 61.8% fib at 1.1219, then the 1.1244 swing high
Loss of the 1.1190 pullback low and the rising trendline would expose the 1.1142 weekly open
A break of the 1.1131 Friday low would resume last week's lower-high, lower-low sequence
US CPI Tue 13:30 GMT, plus Waller and ECB speakers (De Guindos, Lane) on Tuesday, could materially shift this read
Lower highs from Wednesday's 1.1273 peak; Monday higher lows capped at the 50% retracement.
EURUSD has rebounded from the 1.1134 Monday open low as the USD softened on lower oil. The move retraced exactly half of last week's decline, which ran from the 1.1273 Wednesday high to the 1.1131 Friday low after the NFP beat. The advance accelerated at London open and stalled at the 1.1202 Monday high in the first hour of NY, a retest of the 1.1200 area that gave way on Friday, and RSI(14) has eased to ~64 from near 70. Price holds above EMA(20) ~1.1180 and EMA(50) ~1.1184, which cluster with the 38.2% fib at 1.1186 as nearest support; the weekly open sits at 1.1142.
Support: 1.1186, 1.1142, 1.1131
Resistance: 1.1202, 1.1231, 1.1273
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1202 Monday high clears the 50% retracement and opens the path to the 1.1231 Friday high
Failure to hold the 38.2% fib near 1.1186, where both EMAs and the Monday trendline converge, would turn the rebound into a lower high below 1.1273
Slip back under the 1.1142 weekly open puts the 1.1131 Friday low back in play
US CPI Tue 13:30 GMT, the ECB speaker slate Tue and the Trump–Qatar PM meeting at 17:00 GMT today could materially shift this read
Monday higher lows retesting the 1.1200 breakdown zone.
EUR/USD has climbed back to the 1.1200 area after Friday's NFP-driven drop to 1.1131. The London session supplied Monday's main leg as USD softened on lower oil and US-Iran headlines. Price is now testing the monday high at 1.1202, which is also the 50% retracement of last week's 1.1273–1.1131 decline. It trades above both EMAs, with EMA(20) curling up toward EMA(50), RSI(14) near 63, and the ema50/38.2% confluence near 1.1185 the first support under the Monday higher lows.
Support: 1.1185, 1.1177, 1.1131
Resistance: 1.1202, 1.1219, 1.1235
What it said to watch
H1 close above the monday high at 1.1202 opens the 61.8% fib at 1.1219 and the friday high at 1.1235
Break of the Monday higher lows line and the ema20 at 1.1177 returns focus to the nfp low at 1.1131
Fed speakers today, ECB speakers (De Guindos, Lane) and US CPI Tue 13:30 GMT could materially shift this read
14:02 UTC
Rebound within a lower-high sequence · RSI 64 · price 1.11923
Double bottom off 1.1131, testing 1.1200 from below.
EUR has recovered roughly half of the post-NFP slide from the nov 4 high (1.1273) to the friday low (1.1131). Lower oil and hawkish ECB talk drove a London-open push off the weekly open, completing a double bottom with Monday's 1.1134 low and clearing the 1.1170 breakout level. Since then, highs have stalled just under the 1.1200 round number, which also marks the 50% retracement, through the London-NY transition. RSI(14) is near 64, and an upturning EMA(20) has climbed to about 1.1174, sitting on the breakout level.
Support: 1.1170, 1.1142, 1.1131
Resistance: 1.1200, 1.1235, 1.1273
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1200 round number / 50% retracement opens the path to the friday high at 1.1235
Loss of the Monday higher lows and the 1.1170 breakout level puts the weekly open at 1.1142 and the friday low back in focus
Trump–Qatar PM meeting at 17:00 GMT today (Iran/oil headlines) could shift the read into the close
US October CPI Tue 13:30 UTC and Tuesday's ECB speaker cluster could materially shift this read
Lower highs have defined the window since Wednesday's 1.1273 last-week high. Friday's NFP beat (165K vs 65K) drove the break from the 1.1190s down to the 1.1131 swing low. Monday rebounded from the weekly open near 1.1142, with most of the move at London open as lower oil on Iran headlines eased the USD; price is back above EMA(20) and EMA(50), RSI(14) is near 61, and the bounce is stalling just under the 1.1200 round number, retesting Friday's breakdown area at the 50% retracement of last week's decline.
Support: 1.1172, 1.1142, 1.1131
Resistance: 1.1200, 1.1235, 1.1273
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1200 round number and 50% retracement breaks the lower-high sequence and exposes the friday high at 1.1235
Loss of Monday's higher-low trendline and ema20 near 1.1172 puts the weekly open at 1.1142 and the 1.1131 swing low back in focus
Trump-Qatar meeting at 17:00 GMT today: oil and Iran headlines have driven Monday's leg
US CPI (Tue 13:30 UTC, core m/m f/c 0.2%) and Tuesday's ECB speakers could materially shift this read
Lower highs Wed–Fri, Monday higher lows retracing the NFP drop.
Friday's beat on US payrolls (165K vs 65K) took EURUSD to a 1.1131 low. Since Monday's Asia open the pair has printed steady rising lows, cleared the weekly open at 1.1142, and London lifted it to a 1.1195 session high as lower oil and risk-on softened the dollar. Price is back above EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) near 65, wedged between the 38.2% fib (1.1185) and the 50% fib (1.1202) of the week's decline from the 1.1273 week high, a zone that overlaps the 1.1200 area broken on Friday.
Support: 1.1185, 1.1166, 1.11419
Resistance: 1.11954, 1.12018, 1.12728
What it said to watch
H1 close above the session high and 50% fib near 1.1202 opens Thursday's 1.1244 rebound high, with the week high at 1.1273 beyond
Break of the Monday rising lows and the 38.2% fib at 1.1185 shifts focus to ema20 near 1.1166, then the weekly open at 1.1142
Trump–Qatar PM meeting at 17:00 GMT today; ceasefire or oil headlines feed the risk-on driver behind this rebound
Tuesday's ECB speakers and US CPI at 13:30 GMT could materially shift this read
Lower highs from Wednesday's 1.1273 peak; Monday higher lows off the 1.1131 Friday low.
Last week's slide from Wednesday's 1.1273 high bottomed at the 1.1131 Friday low after the 165K NFP beat. Since Monday's 1.1142 weekly open, price has stepped higher along a rising Monday trendline. The London open leg lifted it back above EMA(20) at 1.1168 and EMA(50) at 1.1180, helped by risk-on flows and hawkish ECB commentary. Price is now retesting the 1.1190–1.1200 round number zone, which was Friday's breakdown area and sits at the 50% fib of the weekly decline, with RSI(14) near 64 and ATR compressed to about 10 pips.
Support: 1.1168, 1.1142, 1.1131
Resistance: 1.1200, 1.12186, 1.12728
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1200 round number opens the 61.8% fib at 1.1219, with the last wk high at 1.1273 above that
Rejection at 1.1200 plus a break of the Monday trendline puts EMA(20) at 1.1168 back in play
Loss of the 1.1142 weekly open exposes the 1.1131 Friday low and resumes the lower-high sequence
Fed speakers today and US CPI Tue 13:30 GMT could materially shift this read; ECB speakers Tue and HICP Wed follow
10:02 UTC
Rebounding off NFP low, still inside the week's decline · RSI 66 · price 1.11925
Double top 1.1273/1.1268, lower highs into Friday; Monday higher lows.
The week round-tripped. Wednesday's push stalled at the 1.1273 week high, Thursday's retest at 1.1268 failed, and Friday's NFP beat (165K vs 65K) flushed price to the 1.1131 NFP low. Since Monday's open near 1.1142 the pair has printed higher lows and lifted through ema20 and ema50 into the London open, helped by lower oil and sticky ECB December-hike pricing. Price is now retesting the 1.1200 range top, which lines up with the 50% retracement of the week's decline, with RSI(14) near 66.
Support: 1.1180, 1.1168, 1.1131
Resistance: 1.1200, 1.1235, 1.1273
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1200 range top (50% fib) opens the 1.1235 lower high from Friday's Asian session
Rejection at 1.1200 and a slip back below ema50 at 1.1180 brings ema20 and the Monday higher lows near 1.1170 into focus
Failure to hold 1.1168 exposes the 1.1131 NFP low
Fed speakers today (Bowman 13:40 GMT), ECB speakers Tue and US October CPI Tue 13:30 GMT could materially shift this read
09:03 UTC
Downtrend from midweek high, corrective bounce in progress · RSI 63 · price 1.11875
Lower highs from 1.1273; Monday higher low at 1.1134 above Friday's 1.1131 low.
The dominant leg came from Wednesday's 1.1273 high: a lower high at 1.1268 in Thursday's Asia session, then a Thursday London selloff, and Friday's NFP beat extended the drop to the 1.1131 friday low. Monday has based above the 1.1142 weekly open, and the London open pushed price through the ema20 and ema50 into a 1.1190 session high. That level sits at the 38.2% fib of the decline and the prior pivot zone, helped by hawkish-ECB commentary and a softer USD. RSI(14) has recovered to ~63 from sub-20 readings on Friday, while the 1.1200 round number lines up with the 50% retracement and the lower highs trendline.
Support: 1.1180, 1.1165, 1.1131
Resistance: 1.1190, 1.1200, 1.1235
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1190 session high and 1.1200 round number (50% fib / lower highs trendline) would break the lower-high sequence, with the 1.1235 friday high next
Slip back below the ema50 at 1.1180 and the ema20 near 1.1165 would mark the London push as a rejection at the 38.2% fib
Failure to hold the 1.1131 friday low confirms a lower-low and resumes the downtrend
Sentix 09:30 UTC and Fed speakers today (Bowman 13:40, Goolsbee 15:00 UTC) could shift the read; US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC is the main risk before EZ HICP Wed 07:00 UTC
Lower highs since Wednesday's 1.1273 peak; Monday higher lows off the weekly open.
Wednesday's Asia-to-NY rally topped at 1.1273. Lower highs on Thursday and Friday preceded the NFP-driven drop during Friday's NY hours to the 1.1131 Friday low. Monday's Asia and early London trade has built higher lows off the weekly open at 1.1142, lifting price back above EMA(20) at 1.1161 on hawkish ECB commentary and a softer dollar. It is now retesting Friday's pre-NFP breakdown area under EMA(50) at 1.1180, with the Wed-Fri fib 38.2% near 1.1185 and Friday's lower high at 1.1192 just above.
Support: 1.1161, 1.1142, 1.1131
Resistance: 1.1180, 1.1192, 1.1235
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1192 lower high clears the Wed-Fri fib 38.2% and breaks the lower-high sequence, opening the Friday high at 1.1235
Break of the Monday higher lows trendline and an H1 close back below EMA(20) at 1.1161 returns focus to the weekly open at 1.1142 and the Friday low at 1.1131
Fed speakers today (Bowman 13:40, Goolsbee 15:00 GMT) and US CPI Tue 13:30 GMT could materially shift this read
German HICP and Lagarde on Wed morning are the EUR-side risk to the 1.1190 cap
Lower highs from 1.1273; higher lows since Monday open.
The week's dominant leg was lower. Lower highs from Wednesday's 1.1273 peak gave way to a Friday London slide, and the 165K NFP beat extended the drop to the 1.1131 nfp low. Monday opened on a small gap above Friday's close at the 1.1142 weekly open, and higher lows through Asia and early London on ECB hike talk have lifted price back above the ema20 to the 23.6% retracement near 1.1164, with RSI(14) recovering to 51. Overhead, EMA(50) and the 1.1180 pre-nfp high sit just below the 38.2% fib at 1.1185 and the 1.1192 london high.
Support: 1.11598, 1.11419, 1.11308
Resistance: 1.11797, 1.1185, 1.1192
What it said to watch
An H1 close back below the ema20 near 1.1160 and the Monday higher lows line turns focus back to the 1.1142 weekly open and the 1.1131 nfp low
Acceptance above the 1.1180 pre-nfp high and EMA(50) would expose the 38.2% fib at 1.1185 and the 1.1192 london high, the level capping Friday's London session
Fed speakers today (Bowman 13:40, Goolsbee 15:00, Barkin 17:15 GMT) and ECB Cipollone/Lane on Tue could shift the read ahead of US CPI, due Tue 13:30 GMT
Wed 07:00 UTC HICP is the euro-side risk for a break of the 1.1131–1.1192 band
Lower highs from Wednesday's 1.1273 peak; Monday higher lows off 1.1134.
The week's dominant leg was the slide from Wednesday's 1.1273 high, which was extended by Friday's NFP beat (165K vs 65K) to a 1.1131 friday low during NY hours, with Friday's lower highs stepping down hour by hour. Monday's Asia session has built higher lows off the 1.1142 weekly open and lifted price back onto EMA(20) at 1.1158. It is now testing the 1.1160 monday high just under the 23.6% Wed–Fri slide retracement at 1.1164, with RSI(14) recovered to ~45 from the mid-20s. EMA(50) at 1.1181 still sits overhead.
Support: 1.1158, 1.1142, 1.1131
Resistance: 1.1160, 1.1181, 1.1200
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1160 monday high and the 23.6% retracement at 1.1164 opens a test of the ema50 at 1.1181
Break of the Monday higher-lows line and the 1.1142 weekly open would put the 1.1131 friday low back in focus
Recovery through the 1.12 psych level, near the 50% retracement at 1.1202, would end the lower-high sequence since Wednesday
Fed speakers today from 13:40 GMT, ECB Lane/Cipollone and US CPI Tue 13:30 GMT could materially shift this read
Lower highs from Wednesday's 1.1273 peak; Monday bounce testing EMA20.
The week's dominant move was the slide from Wednesday's 1.1273 high. Lower highs formed from Thursday's London session, and the blowout NFP (165K vs 65K) broke the pair to the 1.1131 Friday low during NY hours. Monday's Asia session has lifted price off the weekly open at 1.1142 onto EMA(20) at 1.1158, pressing the Friday NFP bounce high at 1.1160 with RSI(14) recovering to ~44. EMA(50) at 1.1180 sits just below the lower-highs trendline and the 38.2% fib of the week's decline, both near 1.1185, a stacked ceiling overhead.
Support: 1.1158, 1.1142, 1.1131
Resistance: 1.1160, 1.1180, 1.1200
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1160 NFP bounce high opens the 1.1180 EMA50 and the lower-highs trendline / 38.2% fib near 1.1185
Failure back through the 1.1142 weekly open puts the 1.1131 Friday low in focus; a close below confirms a lower-low
Round number 1.1200 aligns with the 50% fib retracement of the week's decline, the upper bound of any corrective bounce
US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC and ECB Cipollone/Lane on Tuesday could materially shift this read; Eurozone HICP Wed 07:00 UTC follows
04:02 UTC
Downtrend, pausing near lows · RSI 35 · price 1.11519
Lower highs from 1.1273 week high; tight Monday range above 1.1131.
EUR/USD has printed lower highs since Wednesday's NY-session week high at 1.1273. A London-led slide on Friday was extended by the 165K NFP beat to a 1.1131 Friday low. Monday's Asia bounce off the week open at 1.1142 has stalled at EMA(20) near 1.1158, short of the 23.6% level of the drop fib at 1.1164, with RSI(14) recovering only to the mid-30s and the 1.1200 round number the first structural cap above.
Support: 1.1142, 1.1131
Resistance: 1.1158, 1.1200, 1.1273
What it said to watch
H1 close above the ema20 at 1.1158 and the 1.1164 drop fib level opens a corrective path toward the 1.1200 round number
Failure to hold the week open at 1.1142, then a break of the 1.1131 friday low, extends the lower-low sequence
Only a reclaim of the 1.1273 week high negates the lower-high structure
Fed's Bowman 13:40 UTC today and ECB's Cipollone/Lane on Tue could shift the read
US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC and EZ HICP Wed 07:00 UTC are the main risks to this structure
03:02 UTC
Downtrend, early Asia bounce under ema20 · RSI 41 · price 1.11544
Lower highs and lower lows since Wednesday; basing above the NFP low.
H1 has printed lower highs since Wednesday's 1.1273 week high. The slide accelerated through Friday's London and NY sessions as the 165K NFP beat drove a low at 1.1131. Monday's Asia session has lifted price off the weekly open at 1.1142 on hawkish ECB chatter, but EMA(20) near 1.1160 is capping the bounce, the same area that stopped Friday's post-NFP rebound, with RSI(14) recovering only to about 41.
Support: 1.1142, 1.1131
Resistance: 1.1160, 1.1192, 1.1273
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1160 ema20 exposes the 1.1192 lower high, near the 38.2% fib at 1.1185 and the lower-high trendline around 1.1190
Failure to hold the weekly open at 1.1142 exposes the NFP low at 1.1131; a break there extends the lower-low sequence
Fed's Bowman (Mon 13:40 UTC) and US CPI (Tue 13:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
Eurozone HICP Wed 07:00 UTC (f/c 2.8% YoY) and Tuesday's ECB speakers are the EUR-side risk to the structure
02:02 UTC
Downtrend, Asia bounce stalling at EMA20 · RSI 41 · price 1.11564
Lower highs since Wednesday; tight base above NFP low.
Each daily high since Wednesday's 1.1273 week high has come in lower, and Friday's 165K NFP beat extended the slide to a 1.1131 NFP low in the first hour of NY. Monday's Asia session has held above that low and lifted back through the 1.1150 round number on softer USD and ECB hike talk, with RSI(14) recovering to ~41 from Friday's oversold reading. Price is now pressing the underside of the EMA(20) near 1.1159, with the pre-NFP base at 1.1170 and the 23.6% level of the Wednesday-to-Friday fib just above.
Support: 1.1150, 1.11308
Resistance: 1.1159, 1.1170
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1170 pre-NFP base would mark the first reclaim of the post-NFP break
Failure to hold the 1.1150 round number turns focus back to the 1.1131 NFP low; a break below it extends the lower-low sequence
Descending lower-highs line from Wednesday's high sits near 1.1206; the downtrend read stays intact while price trades under it
Fed's Bowman (13:40 UTC) and Goolsbee (15:00 UTC) today, then US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Lower highs from midweek peak; tight base above NFP low.
Wednesday's Asia-session spike carried EURUSD to the 1.1273 midweek high, but a run of lower highs from Thursday gave way to the NY-session drop on Friday's NFP beat (165K vs 65K), printing the 1.1131 nfp low and erasing the week's gains. Price sits below the ema20 (~1.1159), which matches the post-NFP cap, and below the ema50 (~1.1184), near the 38.2% fib of the midweek-to-NFP decline. RSI(14) has recovered to ~36 from sub-25 after the print, and Monday's Asia session is holding a tight 1.1134–1.1151 range just above the low.
Support: 1.11308, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.1159, 1.1184, 1.1200
What it said to watch
Hourly close below the 1.1131 nfp low resumes the lower-low sequence and opens the 1.1100 round number
Reclaim of the ema20 near 1.1159 would mark the first higher high since the NFP drop
Acceptance above the ema50 / 38.2% fib at ~1.1184 puts the 1.12 psych pivot back in play
Fed speakers Mon 13:40–17:15 UTC and US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs since Thursday, tight base above the NFP low.
The week's rally topped at 1.1273 around the London-NY transition on Wednesday. Thursday's London session faded it, and lower highs carried into Friday, when the US payrolls beat (165K vs 65K) extended the leg to the 1.1131 nfp low. Since then price has held a 1.1136–1.1160 base, with the Asia session open holding just above the 1.1142 weekly open. Price is capped by the ema20 near 1.1160, which also marks Friday's post-NFP bounce high. RSI(14) is flattening in the high 30s, and EMA(50) sits near the 38.2% fib at 1.1185.
Support: 1.1142, 1.1131, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.1160, 1.1185, 1.1200
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1160 ema20 clears Friday's lower-highs line and brings the 1.1185 38.2% fib into view
Failure to hold the 1.1142 weekly open puts the 1.1131 nfp low back in focus; a break there extends the downtrend toward the 1.1100 round number
1.1200 pivot (ING's consolidation level) is the upper boundary for any rebound to clear
Fedspeak from Mon 13:40 UTC and US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read