HH/HL chain through London-NY, tight hold above 1.1200 breakout.
EUR/USD left the 1.1146–1.1166 Asian range in early London and cleared the 1.1200 round number late in NY, printing a 1.12245 session high as the USD gave back post-NFP gains on lower oil and US-Iran relief. Since then price has held a tight 1.1218–1.1224 band through the rollover, with the rollover low at 1.12177 intact, RSI(14) flat near 50 and ATR(14) compressed to about 3 pips. The 38.2% fib of the NY leg sits at 1.1211, above the 1.1200 breakout level.
Support: 1.12177, 1.12112, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.12245, 1.1250
What it said to watch
Break of the 1.12177 rollover low opens a pullback toward the fib 38.2 at 1.1211 and the 1.1200 round number
Close back below 1.1200 would turn the NY breakout into a false break
Clearance of the 1.12245 session high resumes the HH chain toward the 1.1250 round number
US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC, with Waller at 09:00 UTC and ECB speakers from 08:15 UTC, could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain from Monday's Asian low; tight 7-pip range under the NY high.
London cleared the Asian range and NY pushed through the 1.1200 round number. A late-NY leg from the 1.12085 breakout lvl tagged a 1.12245 ny high as the USD slid on US-Iran relief, lower oil and lower yields. The rollover dip held 1.12177 (rollover low), and early Asia is pinned just under the high on a 3-pip ATR.
Support: 1.12177, 1.12085, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.12245
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.12245 ny high extends the HH chain beyond the day's rally fib
Break of the 1.12177 rollover low opens a retest of the 1.12085 breakout lvl
Loss of the 1.1200 round number would turn the NY breakout into a false break
US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC is the main catalyst; Waller at 09:00 UTC and ECB speakers from 08:15 UTC could move the pair first
HH/HL chain from Asian low; tight consolidation after late-NY breakout above 1.1200.
Steady HH/HL climb from the 1.1143 Asian low through London and NY as USD softened on falling oil and yields. A late-NY breakout from the 1.1205 breakout base cleared the 1.1200 round number to a 1.1224 session high, and price has since compressed in 1.1218–1.1224. The thin rollover low at 1.1218 held above the 38.2% of the NY breakout leg; RSI(14) is neutral near 55 and ATR(14) is about 4 pips.
Support: 1.1218, 1.1205, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.12245, 1.1250
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1224 session high opens the 1.1250 psych level
Loss of the 1.1218 rollover low exposes the 1.1205 breakout base and the 1.1200 round number
Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC (core MoM f/c 0.2%) could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain intact; tight early-Asia consolidation under the session high.
Monday's session rally from the 1.1143 Asian low broke the Asian range at London open. It pushed through 1.1200 late in NY as the USD slid on lower oil and yields, topping at the 1.12245 session high. Early Asia is holding a 3-pip-ATR band between the 1.1218 asia low and the high, above the 1.1208 prior high, with RSI(14) neutral near 55.
Support: 1.12177, 1.12085, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.12245, 1.1250
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1218 asia low opens a retest of the 1.1208 prior high and the 1.1200 psych level
A break of the 1.12245 session high extends the higher-high chain toward the 1.1250 round number
Waller (09:00 UTC) and US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read; ECB speakers from 08:15 UTC
Higher lows since London open; tight box under the session high.
London broke the 1.1135–1.1166 Asian range. NY then cleared the 1.1200 round number at 16:00 UTC and pushed late in the session to the 1.1225 session high, as oil and US yields slid on US-Iran deal hopes. Price has since held a 1.1218–1.1225 box. Thin post-rollover bars are probing the box low, and RSI(14) has cooled to about 59.
Support: 1.1218, 1.1204, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.12245, 1.1250
What it said to watch
Sustained trade below the 1.1218 box low exposes the 1.1204 breakout shelf and the 1.1200 round number, the 50–61.8% fib zone of the NY leg
M15 close above the 1.1225 session high reopens the 1.1250 psych level
US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC, with Waller at 09:00 UTC beforehand, could materially shift this read
22:31 UTC
Uptrend, stalling at highs · RSI 68 · price 1.1221
London cleared the Asian range high near 1.1166, and NY pushed through the 1.1200 round number as USD faded on US-Iran deal hopes, softer oil and lower yields. A late-NY spike set the 1.12245 session high, and price has since held a tight band above the 1.1219 range low into rollover, with RSI(14) cooling to about 68. The NY-leg fib from the 1.1190 swing low puts 38.2% near 1.1211.
Support: 1.1219, 1.1201, 1.1190
Resistance: 1.12245, 1.1250
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1219 range low opens a pullback into the NY-leg fib, 38.2% at 1.1211
Return below the 1.1200 round number would mark the breakout as a false break
Clearance of the 1.12245 session high extends the leg toward 1.1250 psych
Loss of the 1.1190 swing low would break the intraday higher-low chain
Waller 09:00 UTC and US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher-low chain from the Asian low; tight post-breakout range above 1.1219.
EUR/USD cleared the 1.1200 pivot during late NY hours, helped by a softer dollar as US-Iran deal hopes dragged oil and yields lower. That move extended a day-long higher-low chain from the 1.1134 Asian low to a 1.1225 session high. Price is now compressing in a 5-pip band above the 1.1219 range floor into the Asia session, with RSI(14) near 68 and ATR(14) about 4 pips.
Support: 1.1219, 1.12085, 1.1201
Resistance: 1.12245, 1.1230
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1219 range floor opens a retest of the prior high at 1.1208
Failure to hold the 1.1201 NY floor, near the 23.6% fib of the day's advance, breaks the higher-low chain
Clearance of the 1.1225 session high exposes the 1.1230 round number
Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
HH/HL staircase from Asian low, tight flag above 1.1200 breakout.
Price stair-stepped out of the 1.1134–1.1166 Asian range through London and NY, cleared the 1.1200 round number, and a late-NY spike on the softer USD and Iran-deal oil slide set the session high at 1.1225. Since then it has held in a tight 1.1219–1.1225 flag above the 1.1208 prior high and the rising trendline, with RSI(14) cooled to ~66.
Support: 1.1219, 1.1208, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.12245, 1.1250
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1225 session high extends the rally fib leg and opens 1.1250 psych
Loss of the 1.1219 flag low puts the 1.1208 prior high retest in play
A break of the rising trendline and close back below the 1.1200 round number would undo the breakout
Asia session opens next on thin liquidity; Fed Waller (09:00 UTC) and US CPI (Tue 13:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
21:46 UTC
Uptrend, pausing near session high · RSI 71 · price 1.1221
HH/HL chain since the London open; tight flag-like hold above the late-NY breakout.
EUR/USD cleared the Asian range high at 1.1166 in London and broke the 1.1200 round number in NY as the USD faded on US-Iran deal hopes and lower oil and yields. A late-NY leg from the 1.1208 prior high printed a 1.12245 session high. Price is now holding a 5-pip band above the 1.1219 consol low after the NY close, with RSI(14) near 71.
Support: 1.1219, 1.1208, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.12245, 1.1250
What it said to watch
Loss of the 1.1219 consol low opens a retest of the 1.1208 prior high, which sits at the 38.2% fib
M15 close back below the 1.1200 round number, the 61.8% fib, would mark the breakout as a false break
Clearance of the 1.12245 session high extends the HH chain toward 1.1250 psych
Break of the intraday HL trendline would end the higher-low sequence
US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC (core MoM f/c 0.2%) could materially shift this read
21:31 UTC
Uptrend, pausing at session high · RSI 73 · price 1.1222
HH/HL chain from Asian low; late-NY breakout above 1.1200, tight consolidation under 1.1225.
Steady HH/HL climb from the 1.1134 Asian low. Late in the NY session price broke through the 1.1200 psych level and the 1.1208 prior high to a 1.1225 session high, as USD faded on US-Iran deal hopes and lower oil and yields. Price is now coiling just under the high near the NY close, with RSI(14) at 73 hot but not extreme and ATR(14) at about 4.5 pips.
Support: 1.1208, 1.1200, 1.1186
Resistance: 1.12245, 1.1250
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.1200 psych level returns price to the prior range and negates the breakout
Hold of the 1.1208 prior high, which aligns with the 38.2% retrace of the pullback-low leg, keeps the HH/HL chain intact into Asia
Clearance of the 1.1225 session high exposes the 1.1250 round number
Loss of the 1.1186 London pullback low breaks the intraday higher-low sequence
Fed Waller (09:00 UTC) and US CPI (Tue 13:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
21:17 UTC
Uptrend, extended into late NY · RSI 74 · price 1.12224
HH/HL chain from Asia; late-NY breakout above 1.1208 holding.
EUR/USD has climbed steadily from the 1.1134 Asian low as the dollar faded on US-Iran deal hopes, lower oil and softer yields. Price cleared the 1.1200 round number during NY and broke the 1.1208 prior high late in the session to a 1.12245 session high. It is now holding a tight shelf above the 1.1219 swing low, with RSI(14) cooling from overbought.
Support: 1.12193, 1.12085, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.12245, 1.1250
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1219 swing low puts the 1.1208 prior high retest in play
Loss of 1.1200 round number and the rising support line would break the intraday HL chain
Clearance of the 1.12245 session high exposes the 1.1250 psych level
Thin post-NY and Asia session liquidity can produce erratic moves around the session high
US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC (core m/m f/c 0.2%) and Fed Waller 09:00 UTC could materially shift this read
21:02 UTC
Uptrend, pausing near highs · RSI 71 · price 1.12222
HH/HL chain from Asia; late-NY breakout above 1.1208 holding.
EUR/USD has climbed steadily since the Asian range (1.1134–1.1166), which London broke above early. A late-NY leg cleared the 1.1208 prior high to a 1.12245 session high as the USD faded on US-Iran deal hopes, lower oil and softer yields. Price is now holding a tight 1.1219–1.1224 band after NY close, with the pause low at 1.12193 the nearest support and RSI(14) near 71.
Support: 1.12193, 1.12085, 1.11897
Resistance: 1.12245, 1.1250
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.1208 prior high puts the late-NY breakout at risk; the 1.1207 50% fib sits just below it
Loss of the 1.1190 swing low would break the London-NY higher-low chain
A push through the 1.12245 session high leaves the 1.1250 round number as the next reference
US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC, after ECB De Guindos 08:30 and Fed Waller 09:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain from Asian low; late-NY break above 1.1200, now a tight shelf.
EUR/USD has climbed in steady higher lows and higher highs from the 1.1134 Asian low. A late-NY burst cleared the 1.1200 round number and reached a 1.12245 session high as the USD faded on US-Iran deal hopes and softer yields. After NY close, price is holding a tight 1.1219–1.1224 shelf, with RSI(14) cooling to ~65 and the 38.2% fib of the day's leg sitting on the 1.1190 ny base.
Support: 1.12085, 1.1200, 1.1190
Resistance: 1.12245, 1.1250
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.12085 prior high would mark the late-NY breakout as a false break
Failure to hold the 1.1200 round number exposes the 1.1190 ny base and the 38.2% fib
Acceptance above the 1.12245 session high opens the 1.1250 psych level
US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC (Fed's Waller 09:00 UTC first) could materially shift this read
EUR/USD climbed from the 1.1134 Asian low in a steady HH/HL chain and cleared the 1.1200 psych level in NY as the dollar faded on US-Iran deal hopes and lower oil. A late-NY spike printed a session high at 1.12245, and price is holding just beneath it with RSI(14) near 72. The 50% fib of the leg from the 1.1190 swing low sits at 1.1207, with rising support just above it.
Support: 1.1207, 1.1200, 1.1190
Resistance: 1.12245, 1.1250
What it said to watch
M15 close back below 1.1200 psych would mark the late-NY move as a false break
Failure to hold rising support and the 50% fib at 1.1207 breaks the HH/HL chain
Clearance of the 1.12245 session high exposes the 1.1250 round number
Fed Waller (09:00 UTC) and US CPI (Tue 13:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
20:17 UTC
Uptrend, extended into late NY · RSI 74 · price 1.12234
HH/HL chain all session; late break above 1.1208 to new session high.
EURUSD has printed higher highs and higher lows all Monday, from the 1.1134 Asian low through a London-open leg and a NY break of 1.1200 psych as the USD faded on US-Iran deal hopes and lower oil. A late-NY push cleared the 1.1208 prior high to a 1.1224 session high, and the day's rally has had no pullback deeper than the 1.1190 ny swing low. RSI(14) near 74 is hot but not extreme.
Support: 1.1208, 1.1200, 1.1190
Resistance: 1.12238, 1.1250
What it said to watch
An M15 close back below the 1.1208 prior high would mark the late-NY breakout as a false break
Loss of 1.1200 psych and the intraday trendline (~1.1204) opens the 1.1190 ny swing low, the 38.2% retrace of the day's rally
1.1250 round number is the next reference above the 1.1224 session high; thin late-NY and Asia trade can exaggerate moves
US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC, preceded by Waller and ECB De Guindos, could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain since Asia; NY broke the 1.1201–1.1208 range top.
The USD selloff on US-Iran deal hopes drove EUR/USD from the 1.1134 Asia low through London. Late NY broke the 1.1201–1.1208 range top to a 1.1224 session high, clearing the 1.1200 round number, with RSI(14) at 76. Demand held the 1.1190 NY low twice, near the 38.2% fib of the day's move.
Support: 1.1208, 1.1200, 1.1190
Resistance: 1.12238, 1.1250
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.1208 range top flags a false break
Loss of the 1.1200 round number and the 1.1190 NY low breaks the HL chain
Session high at 1.1224 is the area to watch for rejection; acceptance above puts the 1.1250 round number in view
US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC and Fed Waller 09:00 UTC could materially shift this read
London broke the Asian range top near 1.1166 and NY extended the higher-low chain, clearing the 1.1200 round number as DXY slipped below 102.00 on US-Iran deal hopes. A spike after London close cleared the 1.1208 prior high to a 1.1224 session high. RSI(14) is near 76, hot on thin late-session liquidity.
Support: 1.12085, 1.1200, 1.1190
Resistance: 1.12236, 1.1250
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.1208 prior high turns the late spike into a false break
Loss of the 1.1200 round number, the 23.6% fib, and the rising lows line negates the NY breakout
Break of the 1.1190 ny base, at the 38.2% fib, ends the HH/HL sequence
Hold above the 1.1224 session high leaves the 1.1250 round number as the next reference
Fed Waller (09:00 UTC) and US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain since Asia; 1.1200 broken and retested.
EUR/USD broke out of the 1.1134–1.1166 Asian range at London open and cleared 1.1200 late in the NY session as the dollar slid on US-Iran ceasefire hopes and lower oil. The post-breakout dip held at 1.1201 (retest low), and the pair now sits just under the 1.1212 session high with RSI(14) near 65. Rising support from the Asian low is intact.
Support: 1.1201, 1.1190, 1.1186
Resistance: 1.1212
What it said to watch
M15 close back below 1.1200 turns the breakout into a false break and puts the 1.1190 ny lows back in focus
Failure to hold 1.1186 london low breaks the HH/HL chain and the rising support line
M15 close above the 1.1212 session high extends the uptrend sequence
Fed's Waller (09:00 UTC) and US CPI (13:30 UTC) on Tuesday could materially shift this read, with ECB speakers from 08:15 UTC
19:17 UTC
Intraday uptrend, momentum flattening late NY · RSI 62 · price 1.12048
London broke the Asian range top near 1.1166 and ran to 1.1190 as USD fell on Iran-diplomacy hopes and lower oil. NY held the 1.1190 ny swing low twice before clearing the 1.1200 round number to a 1.12085 session high. Price is now compressing in a 7-pip band above 1.1201 after London close, with RSI(14) near 62.
Support: 1.1201, 1.1190, 1.11855
Resistance: 1.12085
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.1200 round number turns the break into a false break
Loss of the 1.1190 ny swing low and the rising lows line breaks the HL chain; london low at 1.1186 sits below
Clearance of the 1.12085 session high extends the HH sequence into Asia
US CPI Tue 13:30 GMT and Tuesday ECB speakers (De Guindos 08:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
19:01 UTC
Uptrend, momentum fading late NY · RSI 62 · price 1.12042
Higher lows, NY range broken, tight hold above 1.1200.
London broke the Asian range top at 1.1166 and extended the climb from the 1.1134 Asian low as the USD and oil slid. NY then broke out of its 1.1190–1.1202 range at 16:00 UTC and printed the session high at 1.12085. Price is now coiling just above the 1.1200 psych level, with RSI(14) near 62 and ATR(14) shrinking to ~4 pips late in NY hours.
Support: 1.1200, 1.1190, 1.11855
Resistance: 1.12085
What it said to watch
M15 close back below 1.1200 psych returns price to the 1.1190 range low and negates the range break
Loss of the higher-lows trendline and the 1.11855 swing low breaks the intraday HL chain
Clearance of the 1.12085 session high extends the uptrend leg
ECB speakers from 08:15 UTC and US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain from Asian low; tight consolidation above 1.1200 late NY.
Dollar weakness on US-Iran talks and lower oil lifted EURUSD through the Asian range high at 1.1166 in London. NY then broke above 1.1200 psych to a session high at 1.12085, with higher lows at 1.11855 and 1.1190. Price has since compressed in a 1.1201–1.1208 band late NY, holding above the 38.2% fib of the NY leg.
Support: 1.1200, 1.1190, 1.11855
Resistance: 1.12085
What it said to watch
M15 close back below 1.1200 psych puts the breakout in false break territory
Loss of the 1.1190 swing low breaks the higher-lows trendline and the HH/HL chain
Clearance of the 1.12085 session high extends the uptrend sequence
US CPI Tue 13:30 GMT and ECB speakers from 08:30 UTC could materially shift this read; a break under the 1.11855 pullback low would undo the NY leg
18:31 UTC
Uptrend, momentum flattening in late NY · RSI 64 · price 1.12061
Higher lows above 1.1200 after breakout; consolidating under 1.12085 session high.
The day's rally ran from the 1.1134 Asia low through London and cleared 1.1200 in the NY session, as USD and oil slipped on Iran ceasefire hopes. Session high printed at 1.12085 at 17:30 UTC. Late-NY dips have held the 1.1200 round number, with rising lows from the 1.1190 swing low and RSI(14) near 64.
Support: 1.1200, 1.1190, 1.11855
Resistance: 1.12085
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.1200 round number turns the breakout into a false break
Loss of the 1.1190 swing low breaks the rising lows chain, with the 1.11855 midday low next
M15 close above the 1.12085 session high resumes the higher-high sequence
Waller (Tue 09:00 UTC) and US CPI (Tue 13:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain intact; holding above 1.1200 after NY breakout.
London broke the Asian range high near 1.1166 and ran to 1.1190. After London close, NY cleared the 1.1200 round number as the USD softened on lower oil and Iran diplomacy, and printed a session high at 1.12085 before stalling. Price is now retesting 1.1200 with the higher-low trendline intact and RSI(14) near 58.
Support: 1.1200, 1.11897, 1.11855
Resistance: 1.12085
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.1200 round number would mark a false break and expose the 1.1190 ny low
Break of the higher-low trendline and the 1.11855 swing low ends the HH/HL chain
Acceptance above the 1.12085 session high extends the breakout; another rejection there keeps price capped
Trump–Qatar Iran headlines, ECB speakers and Waller Tue morning could materially shift this read
18:01 UTC
Intraday uptrend, extended late NY · RSI 62 · price 1.12027
Higher lows, holding above 1.1200 after NY break.
EUR/USD cleared the Asian range high near 1.1166 at the London open and stair-stepped higher. A softer USD on lower oil and US-Iran talk headlines helped NY push through the 1.1200 round number off a 1.1190 NY low that held above the 1.1186 London low, extending the higher-lows chain. Price set a session high at 1.1209 and is now holding just above 1.1200 after London close, with RSI(14) near 62.
Support: 1.1200, 1.11897, 1.11855
Resistance: 1.12085
What it said to watch
An M15 close back below the 1.1200 round number would turn the NY breakout into a false break.
A break of the 1.1190 NY low, where the 23.6% fib of the Asian low rally sits, ends the higher-lows sequence and exposes the 1.1186 London low.
Clearance of the 1.1209 session high extends the higher-high chain.
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC Tuesday, plus the ECB speaker slate, could materially shift this read.
EURUSD climbed through the day's range from the 1.1134 Asia low, helped by a softer USD and lower oil. NY broke the 1.1190–1.1200 consolidation at 15:00 UTC and set a day high at 1.12085 after London close. Price is now holding the 1.1200 breakout as a retest, with RSI(14) near 60 and ATR around 5.6 pips.
Support: 1.1200, 1.11897, 1.11855
Resistance: 1.12085
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.1200 breakout returns price to the prior box
Loss of the ny low at 1.1190 breaks the rising lows and the HH/HL chain
A fall through the london low at 1.11855 would retrace a deeper share of the day's range
Close above the day high at 1.12085 extends the breakout
Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC Tue could materially shift this read; Trump–Qatar headlines are live now
Higher lows since Asia, 1.1190–1.1200 range broken to upside.
Steady climb from the 1.1134 Asian low, with a softer USD and lower oil behind it, pushed through the 1.1190–1.1200 NY range in the last two hours. Price is at a fresh session high at 1.1208 with RSI(14) near 68. Higher lows held at the 1.1186 london low and the 1.1190 ny low before the breakout.
Support: 1.1200, 1.1190, 1.11855
Resistance: 1.1208
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.1200 breakout level would mark it a false break and put price back inside the 1.1190–1.1200 range
Loss of the 1.1190 ny low breaks the higher-low trendline; 1.1186 london low is next below
Trump–Qatar PM meeting and oil headlines could shift USD tone late in the NY session
Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC Tuesday could materially shift this read
Higher lows since London open, tight hold around 1.1200.
The Monday rally broke above the Asian range at the London open on a softer USD and lower oil, and NY pushed it to a 1.1206 session high. Price is holding the 1.1200 round number in a tight 1.1190–1.1206 band, with RSI(14) near 55 and the NY low and rising support from the London lows intact.
Support: 1.1200, 1.11897, 1.11855
Resistance: 1.12055
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.1190 NY low breaks the higher-low chain
Failure to hold the 1.1186 swing low confirms a lower-low below rising support
Acceptance above the 1.1206 session high extends the Monday rally structure
Trump–Qatar PM meeting and Fed Barkin late NY session could jolt USD; US CPI Tue 13:30 GMT is the bigger event risk
17:01 UTC
Uptrend, pressing 1.1200 · RSI 65 · price 1.12038
HH/HL chain since London open, holding above 1.1200.
London cleared the Asian range high near 1.1160 and NY has kept the higher-low sequence intact. The 1.11897 higher low fed the push through 1.1200 psych to a 1.12045 session high, helped by a softer USD on lower oil and US-Iran talk hopes. The last four bars held 1.1200 on the retest, and RSI(14) at 65 is not overbought.
Support: 1.1200, 1.11897, 1.11855
Resistance: 1.12045
What it said to watch
M15 close back below 1.1200 psych would turn the breakout into a false break
Loss of the 1.11897 higher low and the higher-low line breaks the HH/HL chain, exposing the 1.11855 swing low
Acceptance above the 1.12045 session high extends the higher-high sequence after London close
Barkin (17:15 GMT) and Trump–Qatar PM meeting headlines could shift USD during late NY hours
16:46 UTC
Uptrend, pressing 1.1200 · RSI 62 · price 1.12017
Higher lows from 1.11855, marginal higher highs at 1.1200.
EUR/USD has climbed from the 1.1134 Asian low on a softer USD and lower oil. London broke the Asian range high and NY has pushed through the 1.1200 round number to a 1.12045 session high. Higher lows at the 1.11855 swing low and the 1.1190 triple low hold the micro-structure, and RSI(14) near 62 shows no extreme.
Support: 1.1200, 1.1190, 1.11855
Resistance: 1.12045
What it said to watch
Acceptance above the 1.12045 session high extends the higher-high chain
M15 close back below the 1.1200 round number puts price back inside the 1.1190–1.1200 chop
Break of the 1.1190 triple low and the 1.11855 swing low ends the higher-lows sequence
Trump–Qatar PM meeting at 17:00 GMT and Fed's Barkin at 17:15 GMT could jolt USD
US CPI Tue 13:30 GMT could materially shift this read
16:31 UTC
Uptrend, pushing to fresh session high · RSI 62 · price 1.12019
HH/HL from Asia, NY range 1.1190–1.1200 broken higher.
London broke the 1.1134–1.1166 Asian range, and NY then held a tight 1.1190–1.1200 box, with the ny lows near 1.1190 defended three times, before the latest bar printed a session high at 1.1203. The move fits a softer USD as oil and yields slip on US-Iran hopes. RSI(14) at 62 is not stretched.
Support: 1.1200, 1.1190, 1.11855
Resistance: 1.12033
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.1200 round number turns the push into a false break inside the NY range
Failure to hold the 1.1190 ny lows exposes the 1.1186 london low and the rising support line
Hold above the 1.1203 session high extends the HH chain off the asia-ny leg
Trump–Qatar PM meeting 17:00 GMT and Fed's Barkin 17:15 GMT could materially shift this read
16:16 UTC
Uptrend, stalling into consolidation · RSI 58 · price 1.11943
Post-breakout range 1.1190–1.1202 under 1.1200.
London open broke the Asian high at 1.1166 and extended the rally from 1.1134 into the 1.1190s as a softer USD and lower oil lifted EUR. The NY push to a session high at 1.1202 met rejection, and price has since compressed between a 1.1190 range floor and 1.1200, RSI(14) cooling to ~58.
Support: 1.1190, 1.11855, 1.1166
Resistance: 1.12024
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1202 session high breaks the 1.1200 cap and resumes the rally
Failure to hold the 1.1190 range floor exposes the 1.1186 pullback low, then the 38.2% rally fib near 1.1176
Trump–Qatar PM meeting (17:00 GMT) and Fed's Barkin (17:15 GMT) could shift USD tone within the hour
US CPI Tue 13:30 GMT is the next major catalyst for the range
16:01 UTC
Uptrend, stalling at 1.1200 · RSI 57 · price 1.11938
HH/HL chain from Asia low, now compressing below session high.
Broad USD weakness on risk-on flows and lower oil drove a 68-pip climb from the 1.1134 Asia low. London cleared the asian high at 1.1166, and early NY tagged the 1.1200 round number before a rejection from the 1.1202 session high. Late in the NY session price is compressing between the ny low at 1.1190 and the london high at 1.1198, with RSI(14) cooled to ~57.
Support: 1.11897, 1.11855, 1.1166
Resistance: 1.11981, 1.12024
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1202 session high invalidates the rejection read
Failure to hold the 1.1190 ny low exposes the 1.1186 london low, which sits at the 23.6% of the Monday rally fib
A break below the 1.1166 asian high would unwind most of the London breakout
Trump–Qatar PM meeting 17:00 UTC and Fed's Barkin 17:15 UTC could shift USD tone into the close
London breakout of Asian range, now a tight 1.1190–1.1202 range with lower highs.
London broke the Asian high at 1.1166 and ran 50+ pips on broad USD weakness from risk-on and falling oil. The NY open probed 1.1200 and was rejected from the 1.12024 session high. Price has since printed lower highs above repeated ny lows near 1.1190, sitting just under EMA20 as momentum fades.
Support: 1.1190, 1.11855, 1.1166
Resistance: 1.11981, 1.12024
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1190 ny lows exposes the 1.11855 pullback low and the rising trend line
Loss of 1.11855 shifts focus to the 38.2% retrace of the asia-ny leg near 1.1176, then the 1.1166 asian high
Acceptance above the 1.12024 session high clears the london high cap and the 1.1200 handle
Trump–Qatar PM meeting at 17:00 UTC and Fed's Barkin at 17:15 UTC could move USD late in the NY session
HH/HL from Asian low; tight NY consolidation 1.1190–1.1202.
London broke the Asian high at 1.1166 and ran to a 1.12024 session high in the first hour of NY, helped by a softer USD on risk-on and lower oil. The 1.1200 psych area has produced a rejection since, with the ny low at 1.1190 holding twice and the swing low at 1.11855 sitting near the 38.2% of the london rally fib.
Support: 1.1190, 1.11855, 1.1166
Resistance: 1.12024
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.12024 session high breaks the cap at 1.1200 and extends the HH chain
Failure to hold the 1.1190 ny low opens a retrace toward the 1.11855 swing low / 38.2% fib
Loss of 1.11855 breaks the HL sequence; 1.1166 asian high is the next reference
Trump–Qatar PM meeting 17:00 UTC and Barkin 17:15 UTC could shift USD tone after London close
15:16 UTC
Uptrend, stalling at 1.1200 · RSI 54 · price 1.11957
HH/HL climb from Asia low, now a tight NY range under 1.1200.
London open broke the Asian high near 1.1166 and EUR climbed in a HH/HL chain into a 1.1202 session high in the first hour of NY, as USD softened on US-Iran hopes and lower oil. Supply is capping at the 1.1200 round number. Price is now coiling between the 1.1190 NY lows and the session high, with the 1.11855 swing low holding near the 23.6% fib of the Asia low–session high move.
Support: 1.1190, 1.11855, 1.1166
Resistance: 1.12024
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1202 session high breaks the 1.1200 cap
Failure to hold the 1.1190 NY lows exposes the 1.11855 swing low
Loss of the 1.11855 swing low breaks the HL chain and puts the 1.1166 asian high back in view
Trump–Qatar PM meeting at 17:00 GMT and Fed's Barkin at 17:15 GMT could shift this read late in NY
US CPI Tue 13:30 GMT is the next major volatility event for the pair
15:01 UTC
Uptrend, stalling at 1.1200 · RSI 54 · price 1.11925
Higher lows intact under session high, lower high forming.
Monday's rally from the 1.1134 open low broke the Asian high at 1.1166 in London on a softer USD (US-Iran hopes, lower oil), then met rejection at a 1.1202 session high just above the 1.1200 round number in the first hour of NY. A higher low at 1.1190 holds above the 1.1186 swing low, which sits on the 23.6% fib of the Monday rally. RSI(14) has cooled to about 54 and price is pinned near EMA20.
Support: 1.1190, 1.11855, 1.1166
Resistance: 1.11981, 1.12024
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1202 session high clears the 1.1200 round number and negates the rejection read
Break below the 1.1190 higher low exposes the 1.1186 swing low and the 23.6% fib of the Monday rally
Loss of the 1.1186 swing low opens a retest of the 1.1166 asian high
Sub-1.1198 prior high lower highs extend the consolidation under 1.1200
Goolsbee 15:00 and Trump–Qatar 17:00 GMT could shift USD tone; US CPI Tue 13:30 GMT could materially change this read
14:46 UTC
Uptrend, stalling at 1.1200 · RSI 56 · price 1.11949
HH/HL chain from Asian low; upper wicks at 1.1200.
London broke the Asian high at 1.1166 and ran to 1.1190. After a higher low at 1.11855, the NY session pushed through the 1.1200 psych level to a 1.12024 session high, helped by broad USD weakness on US-Iran peace hopes and lower oil. Three straight upper wicks there have pulled price back to 1.1195, with RSI(14) near 56.
Support: 1.11898, 1.11855, 1.1166
Resistance: 1.1200, 1.12024
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.12024 session high extends the HH chain beyond the 1.1200 psych cap
Loss of the 1.1190 NY swing low, then the 1.11855 higher low, breaks the intraday HH/HL sequence
Deeper pullback would bring the 1.1166 Asian high into play near the 50% fib of the Asia-NY rally
Goolsbee at 15:00 and the Trump-Qatar PM meeting at 17:00 GMT could shift USD tone ahead of Tuesday's US CPI
HH/HL chain from Asia; NY probe above 1.1200 faded back under the figure.
Steady higher-highs/higher-lows climb from the 1.1134 Asian-open low, extended through London on a softer USD and lower oil. In the first hour of NY price printed a 1.12024 session high and slipped back under the 1.1200 round number, then the london high; the higher-low chain holds while price sits above the 1.1190 ny low and the 1.1186 swing low.
Support: 1.11898, 1.11855, 1.1166
Resistance: 1.11981, 1.1200, 1.12024
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.12024 session high would negate the rejection at the round number
Break below the 1.1186 swing low (near the 23.6% fib) ends the rising lows sequence; the 1.1166 asian high is the next shelf
Goolsbee 15:00, the Trump–Qatar PM meeting 17:00 and Barkin 17:15 GMT could shift the USD tone; US CPI Tue 13:30 GMT is the larger risk
14:16 UTC
Uptrend, pressing 1.1200 · RSI 60 · price 1.11993
Higher-low staircase since London open, testing round number.
London broke the asian high at 1.1166 and stepped higher. The first NY hour poked through the 1.1200 round number to a session high at 1.12024, with softer USD on lower oil and hawkish ECB talk behind the move. Rising lows at 1.11839 and the 1.11855 swing low remain intact, with the 1.1190 base absorbing three dips since late London.
Support: 1.1190, 1.11855, 1.1166
Resistance: 1.1200, 1.12024
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.12024 session high extends the breakout through the round number
Close back below the 1.1190 base, then the 1.11855 swing low, breaks the rising lows
Return inside the range below the asian high at 1.1166 would mark the London breakout as a false break
Fed's Goolsbee (15:00) and Barkin (17:15), plus the Trump–Qatar PM meeting at 17:00 GMT, could shift this read
US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC is the next major volatility event
London break of Asian range, now consolidating under session high.
London cleared the Asian high at 1.1160 and ran to a 1.1198 session high, helped by lower oil and hawkish ECB talk. Since late London, price has held a tight 1.1186–1.1198 box. Early NY printed slightly lower highs under the 1.1200 psych level, with RSI(14) neutral near 49.
Support: 1.11855, 1.11738, 1.11603
Resistance: 1.11981, 1.1200
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1198 session high and 1.1200 psych extends the uptrend
Failure to hold the 1.1186 swing low opens the 38.2 fib at 1.1174
Loss of the 38.2 fib exposes the old Asian high at 1.1160
Trump–Qatar PM meeting at 17:00 GMT and Fed speakers (Goolsbee, Barkin) could shift this read via oil and USD
London breakout above Asian range, now a tight box under session high.
London cleared the Asian high at 1.1166 and Friday's high at 1.1160, running to a 1.1198 session high as USD softened on oil relief and hawkish ECB talk. Into NY, price is boxed between the 1.1186 swing low and the session high just under the 1.1200 psych level. RSI(14) has cooled to a neutral 53 and the pullback has held near the top of the London rally fib.
Support: 1.11855, 1.1166, 1.1160
Resistance: 1.11981, 1.1200
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.1200 psych breaks the consolidation box and the session high
Loss of the 1.1186 swing low opens a deeper retrace of the London rally toward the Asian high at 1.1166
Friday high at 1.1160 failing would unwind the London breakout
Fed's Goolsbee (15:00 UTC) and the Trump–Qatar meeting (17:00 UTC) could materially shift USD and this read
13:31 UTC
Uptrend, stalling under 1.1200 · RSI 54 · price 1.11924
Post-breakout consolidation 1.1185–1.1198.
London broke the Asian high near 1.1166 and ran the London leg to a 1.1198 session high, helped by lower oil and firm ECB December-hike pricing. Since late morning price has compressed between the 1.1185 range low and the session high, just under the 1.1200 round number. Early NY printed a marginal lower high at 1.1197 and RSI(14) is neutral near 54.
Support: 1.11855, 1.1166
Resistance: 1.11981, 1.1200
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1200 round number breaks the consolidation and extends the London leg
Failure to hold the 1.1185 range low opens a retrace toward the 50% of the London leg, near the 1.1166 asian high
Fed speakers (Goolsbee 15:00 UTC) and the Trump-Qatar meeting at 17:00 GMT could shift this read via oil and USD
Post-breakout consolidation 1.1185–1.1198 under psych.
London broke the Asian high at 1.1166 and ran to a 1.1198 session high, helped by lower oil and firm ECB December-hike pricing. Since then price has held a tight 1.1185–1.1198 consolidation just under 1.1200 psych. The first NY push stalled a pip short of the session high, and RSI(14) at ~55 is neutral.
Support: 1.1185, 1.1166
Resistance: 1.1198, 1.1200
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.1200 psych breaks the consolidation and clears the session high
Failure to hold the 1.1185 range floor exposes the Asian high at 1.1166, which is also the 50% fib of Monday's leg
Fed's Bowman (13:40 UTC) and the Trump-Qatar meeting at 17:00 GMT could materially shift this read; US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC is the larger risk
London breakout above the Asian range, tight rotation under the session high.
London broke the Asian high at 1.1166 and ran to a 1.1198 session high on lower oil and hawkish ECB commentary. Supply capped the London leg just shy of the 1.1200 round number. The pullback held 1.1186, and price is rotating near the highs into the NY open with RSI(14) cooled to ~57.
Support: 1.11855, 1.1166
Resistance: 1.11981, 1.1200
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1198 session high and the 1.1200 round number extends the London leg
Failure at the 1.1186 pullback low exposes the rising lows line and the 1.1166 Asian high
Fed's Bowman at 13:40 UTC and the Trump-Qatar meeting at 17:00 GMT could shift this read
US October CPI Tue 13:30 UTC is the next major volatility event for USD
London HH/HL chain from the Asian low; first pullback off the session high.
EUR/USD climbed steadily from the 1.1134 Asian low and accelerated in the London session. The 08:15 UTC push extended the post-NFP rebound on lower oil and firm ECB December-hike pricing, and the session high at 1.1198 met rejection just shy of the 1.1200 round number. Price is now sitting on the 1.1186 pullback low, with the 1.1184 shelf low and the fib 38.2 retracement at 1.1174 below.
Support: 1.11855, 1.11839, 1.11738
Resistance: 1.11981, 1.1200
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 1.1184 shelf low breaks the London HL chain and exposes the fib 38.2 at 1.1174
A clear break of the 1.1198 session high and the 1.1200 round number extends the uptrend
Fed speakers Bowman (13:40 GMT) and Goolsbee (15:00 GMT) during NY hours, plus the Trump–Qatar Iran meeting at 17:00 GMT, could materially shift this read
London breakout above Asian high, shallow pullback from session high.
London broke above the 1.1166 Asian high and ran to a 1.1198 session high, helped by a softer USD and lower oil. Price met rejection just under the 1.1200 round number. The pullback low at 1.1186 is holding on EMA20, shallow of the 23.6% fib of the Asia low–session high leg, and RSI(14) has cooled to 54.
Support: 1.11855, 1.11761, 1.1166
Resistance: 1.11981, 1.1200
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1186 pullback low exposes the 1.1176 breakout origin and the 38.2% fib near 1.1174
M15 close above the 1.1198 session high and 1.1200 round number extends the London leg
Loss of the 1.1166 Asian high would undo the breakout read
Fed's Bowman (13:40 GMT) and the Trump–Qatar Iran meeting (17:00 GMT) could materially shift this read; US CPI is due Tue 13:30 GMT
Asian range broken higher at London open; pullback from session high.
London open broke the Asian high near 1.1174 and extended to a 1.1198 session high as USD softened on lower oil, then stalled just under the 1.1200 round number. Price has eased back into the 1.1184 London base, where EMA20 and the 23.6% fib sit, with RSI(14) cooling to ~57.
Support: 1.1184, 1.1174
Resistance: 1.1198, 1.1200
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1184 London base exposes the 1.1174 Asian high, near the 38.2% fib
Close above the 1.1198 session high and the 1.1200 round number extends the London breakout
Fed speakers Bowman (13:40 GMT) and Goolsbee (15:00 GMT) during NY hours could shift this read; US CPI Tue 13:30 GMT is the bigger risk
HH/HL chain from Asia low; London high rejected, pullback to London base.
London broke the Asian high at 1.1166 and ran to a 1.1198 session high as the dollar gave back NFP gains on risk-on oil weakness. The 11:30 UTC bar rejected just shy of the 1.1200 round number, and price is back at 1.1188, testing EMA20 just above the 1.1184 london base.
Support: 1.1184, 1.1166
Resistance: 1.1198, 1.1200
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1184 london base breaks the HL chain and puts the 1.1166 asian high retest in play
Close above the 1.1198 session high and the 1.1200 round number extends the London breakout
Fed speakers Bowman 13:40 and Goolsbee 15:00 GMT, plus the Trump–Qatar meeting at 17:00 GMT, could shift the read into NY hours
HH/HL chain through London; Asian range high broken, session high capped under round number.
London cleared the Asian high at 1.1166 and stair-stepped to a 1.1198 session high as USD gave back NFP gains on risk-on and lower oil. The 11:15 UTC probe was rejected just under the 1.1200 round number. RSI(14) is near 71, with the 1.1190 swing low and the London trendline still holding.
Support: 1.1190, 1.1184, 1.1166
Resistance: 1.11981, 1.1200
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1200 round number extends the London leg past the session high
Close below the 1.1190 swing low and the London trendline opens a pullback toward the london base at 1.1184 and the Asian high at 1.1166, near the fib 38.2–50% zone
Fed speakers Bowman 13:40 and Goolsbee 15:00 GMT, plus the Trump–Qatar PM meeting at 17:00 GMT, could shift USD tone into the NY session
London-open breakout, then tight shelf under session high.
EURUSD climbed steadily through Asia off the 1.1134 open low along a rising asia trend line, then broke higher at London open as lower oil and risk-on softened USD. Since 08:30 UTC price has held a 1.1184–1.1198 shelf, the london base, just under the 1.1200 round number. The 11:15 bar wicked to a 1.1198 session high and closed back at 1.1191, a rejection, with RSI(14) near 67.
Support: 1.1190, 1.1184, 1.1174
Resistance: 1.11981, 1.1200
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1198 session high and the 1.1200 round number extends the London breakout
Loss of the 1.1190 micro low and then the 1.1184 london base breaks the shelf and exposes the fib 38.2 near 1.1174
A break of the asia trend line, near 1.1180 by midday, ends the higher-low sequence from the Asia low
Fed's Bowman at 13:40 GMT and the 17:00 GMT Trump–Qatar Iran meeting could shift USD during NY hours
US CPI on Tue 13:30 GMT is the larger event risk for this range
11:16 UTC
Uptrend, stretched into resistance · RSI 78 · price 1.11948
HH/HL chain from the Monday low; London broke above the Asian range, mid-session.
London broke the Asian high at 1.1166 and pushed to a 1.1196 session high. Price is now pressing the 1.1190–1.1200 cap as a softer USD on Iran headlines and hawkish ECB talk lift EUR. Higher lows are holding along the London trendline, with the 1.1190 pullback low and the 1.1184 London base underneath. RSI(14) near 78 is stretched but not extreme.
Support: 1.1190, 1.1184, 1.1166
Resistance: 1.11958, 1.1200
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1200 round number and the session high clears the cap
M15 close below the 1.1184 London base breaks the HL chain and the London trendline, exposing the 38.2% of the Monday rally near 1.1172
A loss of the Asian high at 1.1166, the 50% of the Monday rally, unwinds the London breakout
Fed speakers Bowman 13:40 and Goolsbee 15:00 GMT, plus the Trump–Qatar PM Iran meeting at 17:00 GMT, could shift the read during NY hours
HH/HL chain from the 1.1134 Sunday low, tight consolidation under the session high.
London broke the 1.1166 asian high and extended to a 1.1195 session high, carrying the rebound from Friday's post-NFP 1.1131 low on risk-on flows and hawkish ECB talk. Price is coiling just under the 1.1200 round number while holding the 1.1190 prior high, with RSI(14) near 76.
Support: 1.1190, 1.11839, 1.1166
Resistance: 1.11954, 1.1200
What it said to watch
A close above the 1.1200 round number clears the session high and the 1.1190–1.1200 cap flagged in the digest.
Failure to hold the 1.1184 consol low breaks the HH/HL chain. The overnight rally fib 38.2% at 1.1172 and the 1.1166 asian high sit below it.
The rising trendline from the Sunday higher lows sits near 1.1178. A break would end the intraday uptrend read.
Fed speakers Bowman (13:40 GMT) and Goolsbee (15:00 GMT) into the NY open, plus the Trump–Qatar meeting at 17:00 GMT, could materially shift this read.
10:46 UTC
Uptrend, stretched near highs · RSI 78 · price 1.11933
HH/HL chain since Asia; London broke Asian high, flag resolved higher.
London broke the Asian high at 1.1166 and extended to a 1.1195 session high. A flag between 1.1184 and 1.1190 then resolved higher. The move tracks ECB December-hike talk and a softer dollar. RSI(14) near 78 is hot but not extreme, and two touches at the 1.1195 session high sit just under the 1.1200 round number.
Support: 1.11839, 1.1166
Resistance: 1.11954, 1.1200
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.1200 round number extends the HH chain beyond the session high
Close back below the 1.1184 flag low turns the breakout into a false break
Loss of the 1.1166 asian high or the rising trendline breaks the intraday HL structure
Fed speakers (Bowman 13:40, Goolsbee 15:00 GMT) and the Trump–Qatar meeting at 17:00 GMT could materially shift this read during NY hours
10:31 UTC
Uptrend, stretched near 1.1200 · RSI 81 · price 1.11927
HH/HL chain; London broke above Asian range.
London open cleared the Asian high at 1.1166 and Friday's high at 1.1180, then paused in a flag at 1.1184–1.1190 before pushing to a session high at 1.1195. The move matches the digest's hawkish-ECB and risk-on driver, and RSI(14) near 81 is stretched with price just under the 1.1200 round number.
Support: 1.1184, 1.1180, 1.1166
Resistance: 1.11954, 1.1200
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1200 round number extends the London breakout
Loss of the 1.1184 flag low exposes the Friday high at 1.1180, near the 23.6% fib of the Asia-London leg
A return below the Asian high at 1.1166 would mark the London move as a false break
Fed speakers Bowman (13:40 GMT) and Goolsbee (15:00 GMT) during NY session could shift USD tone ahead of Tuesday's CPI
10:16 UTC
Uptrend, stretched into resistance · RSI 81 · price 1.11952
HH/HL chain from Asia low; London broke Asian range, flag resolved higher.
EUR has recovered from 1.1134 in Asia, retracing the Friday NFP flush on lower oil and Iran-peace hopes. London broke the 1.1166 asian high and printed a 1.1184–1.1190 flag that resolved higher. Price is pressing the 1.1195 session high just under the 1.1200 round number, with RSI(14) near 81.
Support: 1.1190, 1.11839, 1.1166
Resistance: 1.11954, 1.1200
What it said to watch
Rejection at the 1.1195 session high or 1.1200 round number with RSI above 80 would leave a short-term top; an M15 close above 1.1200 extends the HH chain
A close back below the 1.1190 flag top, then the 1.1184 flag low, would mark a false break
Loss of the 1.1166 asian high, near the 50% of the Monday rally fib and the rising support line, breaks the intraday HL structure
Fed speakers Bowman (13:40 GMT) and Goolsbee (15:00 GMT) during NY hours could shift USD tone
10:01 UTC
Uptrend, stretched into resistance · RSI 79 · price 1.11915
London breakout above Asian range; HH/HL chain, tight pause under 1.1193.
London open drove EURUSD out of the Asian range, clearing the asian high near 1.1160 as lower oil and Iran-peace hopes eased USD. After a tight 1.1184–1.1190 pause, price printed a new session high at 1.1193, just under the 1.1200 round number. RSI(14) near 79 is stretched, and the rising trendline from the Asia lows is well below price.
Support: 1.1184, 1.1171, 1.1160
Resistance: 1.1193, 1.1200
What it said to watch
Rejection at the 1.1193 session high or the 1.1200 round number, with RSI near 79, would mark a stall in the London leg
M15 close back below the 1.1184 pause low exposes the fib 38.2 near 1.1171 and the rising trendline
Loss of the 1.1160 asian high returns price to the Asian range and negates the breakout
Fed speakers Bowman (13:40 GMT) and Goolsbee (15:00 GMT) during NY hours could shift USD tone
Asian-range breakout extended in London, tight flag under 1.1190.
EURUSD broke above the 1.1160 Asian high before London and extended through the 1.1179 Friday high. It tagged a 1.1190 session high at 08:30 UTC and has since held a tight flag between 1.1184 and 1.1190. The move tracks a softer USD on oil relief and hawkish ECB talk, while German trade data gave little net impulse; RSI(14) near 76 is hot but not extreme.
Support: 1.11839, 1.1179, 1.11603
Resistance: 1.1190, 1.1200
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 1.1190 session high clears the digest's first resistance and opens the 1.1200 round number
A close back below the 1.1184 flag low exposes the 1.1179 Friday high as the breakout retest
Loss of the Monday rally trendline near 1.1167, around the 38.2% rally fib, would undo the move above the Asian high
Sentix at 09:30 UTC, Fed speakers (Bowman 13:40, Goolsbee 15:00 GMT) and the Trump–Qatar meeting at 17:00 GMT could shift USD tone
09:01 UTC
Uptrend, extended after London push · RSI 80 · price 1.11872
HH/HL chain from Sunday low; London broke Asian range and Friday's prior high.
Pair has fully retraced Friday's NFP drop. The steady Asian grind lifted price out of the Asian range, and the London session cleared the 1.1170 london base and Friday's 1.1180 prior high before stalling at a 1.1190 session high. The move fits the softer-USD tone on lower oil and hawkish ECB talk. RSI(14) near 80 is stretched after back-to-back 7-12 pip bars, against ATR around 4.6 pips.
Support: 1.1180, 1.1170, 1.1160
Resistance: 1.1190, 1.1200
What it said to watch
Sentix at 09:30 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close back below the 1.1180 prior high would mark the breakout as a false break
Hold of the rising trendline from the Asian lows and the 1.1170 london base keeps the HL chain intact
Close through the 1.1190 session high opens the 1.1200 round number; a deeper pullback targets the 38.2% fib near 1.1169
A slide back toward the 1.1160 asian high would put the session's breakout in question
Fed speakers from 13:40 UTC (Bowman, Goolsbee, Barkin) ahead of Tuesday's US CPI could reprice USD
08:46 UTC
Uptrend, extended into London · RSI 85 · price 1.11857
HH/HL chain from Monday low; Asian range and Friday high broken.
London open broke the Asian high at 1.1166 and cleared Friday's high near 1.1181, extending the Monday rally off 1.1134 to a 1.1190 session high, the barrier flagged in the digest, on hawkish ECB December-hike talk and a softer USD. RSI(14) near 85 is stretched, and the 08:30 bar wicked off 1.1190 while the rising trendline from the Asian lows sits near 1.1165.
Support: 1.1181, 1.1166
Resistance: 1.1190, 1.1200
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.1181 friday high would turn the breakout into a false break
M15 close above the 1.1190 session high opens the 1.1200 round number
Loss of the rising trendline and the 1.1166 asian high would end the HH/HL chain
Sentix at 09:30 UTC and Fed's Bowman at 13:40 UTC could shift the read
08:31 UTC
Uptrend, RSI stretched · RSI 86 · price 1.11852
Higher lows through Asia, break above Asian high into London open.
Monday's grind higher from the 1.1134 Asian low cleared the Asian high at 1.1166 and pushed through Friday's pre-NFP top near 1.1180 into London open. The move printed a session high at 1.1188, just under the 1.1190 barrier, on hawkish ECB talk and a softer USD. RSI(14) near 86 is extreme for M15.
Support: 1.1180, 1.1166, 1.1155
Resistance: 1.11883, 1.1200
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.1180 pre-nfp top would mark the London open push as a false break
Session high at 1.1188 is the area to watch for rejection or break; a close above opens the path to the 1.1200 round number
Loss of the rising Asian trendline and the 1.1166 Asian high would put the fib 61.8 near 1.1155 in play
Sentix 09:30 UTC and Fed's Bowman 13:40 UTC could shift this read
08:16 UTC
Uptrend, RSI stretched · RSI 83 · price 1.11784
London broke above Asian range high, higher highs and higher lows since Sunday open.
London open cleared the Asian high at 1.1166 and pushed to 1.1178. That fully retraces Friday's NFP drop back to the pre-payrolls prior pivot near 1.1180, on hawkish ECB commentary and a softer USD. RSI(14) near 83 is stretched, with the Friday high at 1.1192 just above.
Support: 1.1166, 1.11635, 1.11344
Resistance: 1.1180, 1.1192
What it said to watch
Rejection at the 1.1180 prior pivot with RSI rolling over from 83 would mark a short-term exhaustion point
M15 close above the 1.1192 friday high extends the London breakout
Slip back below the 1.1166 asian high, then the 1.11635 swing low and rising support, turns the breakout into a false break
Sunday low at 1.11344 is the base of the Asia-London leg
Sentix at 09:30 UTC and Fed's Bowman at 13:40 GMT could shift the NY session read
08:01 UTC
Uptrend, stretched into early London · RSI 77 · price 1.11706
Higher lows from Sunday low, Asian high broken at London open.
Steady rally from the 1.1134 Sunday low through Asia on hawkish ECB talk and a softer dollar. London open cleared the 1.1165 Asian high and printed a 1.1173 session high, which retraces Friday's NFP drop almost in full and puts price back at the pre-NFP shelf around 1.1175–1.1180. RSI(14) near 77 is hot but not extreme, and the rising trendline from the Sunday low is intact.
Support: 1.1165, 1.1160, 1.1134
Resistance: 1.1173, 1.1180, 1.1192
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.1165 Asian high would mark the London breakout as a false break, exposing the 1.1160 nfp bounce high and the rally fib 38.2% near 1.1159
Acceptance above the 1.1180 nfp shelf opens the 1.1192 friday high, the 1.1190 barrier flagged in the digest
Break of the rising trendline, near 1.1163 by mid-London, would end the higher-low sequence from the Sunday low
Sentix at 09:30 UTC and Fed's Bowman at 13:40 GMT are the near-term event risks; US CPI on Tue 13:30 GMT is the larger catalyst
07:46 UTC
Uptrend, extended into resistance · RSI 75 · price 1.11704
HH/HL chain from Asian low; London broke above Asian range.
The first hour of London cleared the 1.1160 Asian high and extended the HH/HL chain to 1.1173, just under the Friday nfp shelf at 1.1172-1.1176 where the post-payrolls selloff began. RSI(14) is near 75, hot but not extreme. Hawkish ECB commentary and a softer USD drove the recovery from Friday's 1.1131 low.
Support: 1.1160, 1.1154, 1.1134
Resistance: 1.1176, 1.1192
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 1.1176 nfp shelf opens the path to the 1.1192 friday high and the 1.1190 barrier.
Rejection at the nfp shelf and a close back below the 1.1160 asian high would expose the fib 50% at 1.1154 and the asian trendline.
A break of the asian trendline and the 1.1134 asian low would undo the Monday rebound.
Sentix at 09:30 UTC, Fed's Bowman at 13:40 GMT and the Trump–Qatar meeting at 17:00 GMT could shift the intraday read.
Asian range top broken, testing Friday pre-NFP base.
A higher-low chain from the 1.1134 Sunday low has cleared the Asian high and Friday's post-NFP bounce high at 1.1160. Early London set a session high at 1.1168 on hawkish ECB talk and a softer dollar, just under the 1.1171 Friday base from the pre-NFP range. RSI(14) near 74 is running hot but not extreme.
Support: 1.1160, 1.11508, 1.11344
Resistance: 1.11683, 1.1171, 1.1192
What it said to watch
An M15 close back below the 1.1160 asian high would put the breakout in question; session trendline support sits near 1.1162.
Acceptance above the 1.1171 friday base opens the path to the 1.1192 friday high.
A loss of the 1.1151 swing low breaks the higher-low chain, leaving the 1.1134 sunday low exposed.
Sentix at 09:30 UTC and Fed's Bowman at 13:40 UTC could shift this read; the US CPI print on Tuesday is the larger risk.
07:16 UTC
Intraday uptrend, extended into early London · RSI 74 · price 1.11644
Higher lows from the Monday low; Asian range and post-NFP high broken to the upside.
European hours broke the 1.1150–1.1158 Asian range and Friday's post-NFP high at 1.1160, extending the higher-low chain from the 1.1134 Monday low on hawkish ECB commentary and a softer dollar. Early London is stalling just under the 1.1168 session high, with RSI(14) near 74 and an upper wick on the 07:00 UTC bar.
Support: 1.1160, 1.1150, 1.11344
Resistance: 1.11681, 1.1171, 1.1192
What it said to watch
Holding above 1.1160 (post-nfp hi) keeps the breakout intact; an M15 close back below reopens the 1.1150 asian low near the Monday rally fib 50%
Acceptance above the 1.1168 session high brings the 1.1171 pre-nfp base into play, then the 1.1192 friday high
A break of the Monday rally trendline and the 1.1134 monday low would end the higher-low sequence
Sentix at 09:30 UTC and Fed's Bowman at 13:40 GMT in the NY session could shift this read
07:01 UTC
Intraday uptrend, extended into London open · RSI 78 · price 1.11656
Higher-low chain off the Sunday open low; Friday post-NFP high reclaimed.
The Asian session climbed in higher lows from the 1.1134 Asian low and reclaimed Friday's post-NFP high at 1.1160 on ECB hike talk and a softer dollar. Price is pressing the Asian high at 1.1166 into London open with RSI(14) near 78. The pre-NFP base at 1.1170 sits directly overhead, with the Friday high at 1.1192 above that.
Support: 1.1160, 1.11508, 1.11344
Resistance: 1.1166, 1.1170, 1.1192
What it said to watch
A London close back below the post-NFP high at 1.1160 turns the breakout into a false break. Losing the 1.1151 swing low breaks the higher-low chain.
Acceptance above the 1.1170 pre-NFP base opens the Friday high at 1.1192. Rejection there leaves the Asian high as a cap.
A move below the 1.1134 asian low would erase the entire Asia rebound.
Sentix at 09:30 UTC and Fed speakers from 13:40 UTC (Bowman, Goolsbee, Barkin) could materially shift this read ahead of Tuesday's US CPI.
Higher lows off the Asia low, now pressing the session high.
The Asia rally on ECB hike talk and a softer dollar built higher lows off the 1.1134 asia low and cleared Friday's 1.1160 nfp bounce high. Price sits at the 1.1165 session high into London open with RSI(14) near 76, and the pre-nfp base at 1.1170 is the next overhead marker.
Support: 1.1160, 1.1150, 1.11344
Resistance: 1.11653, 1.1170
What it said to watch
Holding 1.1160 (nfp bounce) keeps the breakout intact. A slip back below it turns the move into a false break.
An M15 close above the 1.1170 pre-nfp base reopens Friday's pre-NFP range.
A break of the Asia trendline and the 1.1150 asia shelf ends the higher-low chain, exposing the 1.1134 asia low.
London open, EZ Trade Balance at 07:00 UTC and Sentix at 09:30 could reset the Asian range. Fed speakers from 13:40 GMT are a later risk.
EUR/USD climbed from the 1.1134 Asia low to a 1.1164 session high ahead of London open. Softer USD and hawkish ECB commentary lifted the pair through Friday's NFP bounce high near 1.1160. RSI(14) ~73 is warm, and ATR is only ~2.7 pips on thin Asian ranges.
Support: 1.1160, 1.1152, 1.1134
Resistance: 1.1164, 1.1170, 1.1200
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.1160 NFP bounce level turns the breakout into a false break
Loss of the 1.1152 Asia shelf breaks the Asia rising trendline and the higher-low chain
Acceptance above the 1.1170 pre-NFP base puts the 1.1200 round number in view
London open with EZ Trade Balance (07:00 UTC) and Sentix (09:30) could expand the Asian range
Fed speakers Bowman/Goolsbee/Barkin later today could shift the USD leg
Higher-low chain from the Monday open; Asia range broken higher into Friday's post-NFP bounce high.
Asia session built a higher-low chain off the 1.1134 Asia low as the USD eased on lower oil. A late break of the 1.1151 Asia shelf lifted price back to the 1.1160 Asia high, which matches Friday's post-NFP bounce high. RSI(14) is near 68 and ATR has compressed to about 2.6 pips ahead of London open.
Support: 1.1151, 1.1134, 1.1131
Resistance: 1.1160, 1.1170, 1.1199
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 1.1160 Asia high clears Friday's bounce high and opens the 1.1170 pre-NFP pivot, with the 1.1199 Friday high beyond
A break back below the 1.1151 Asia shelf and the rising Asia trendline would break the higher-low chain
Failure to hold the 1.1134 Asia low exposes Friday's 1.1131 NFP low
London open and the 07:00 UTC EZ Trade Balance could expand the tight Asian range; Fed's Bowman speaks at 13:40 UTC during NY hours
Higher lows through Monday Asia, price at the top of the Asian range.
Monday Asia has climbed from the 1.1134 asian low to 1.1160, the high of Friday's nfp bounce and close to the 50% level of the fri drop fib, as a softer USD on lower oil lifted EUR. Higher lows hold along the Asia trendline after a 1.1152 asia shelf formed overnight. RSI(14) is near 68 and ATR is about 3 pips, typical pre-London compression.
Support: 1.1152, 1.1134
Resistance: 1.1160, 1.1173
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1160 nfp bounce high opens the path to the 1.1173 pre-nfp base
Slip back below the 1.1152 asia shelf and the Asia trendline breaks the higher-low sequence
Loss of the 1.1134 asian low revisits Friday's 1.1131 low
London open with EZ Trade Balance at 07:00 UTC and Sentix at 09:30 UTC could expand the Asian range
Fed's Bowman at 13:40 UTC is the NY-session USD risk ahead of Tuesday's CPI
05:16 UTC
Intraday uptrend, higher lows through Asia · RSI 64 · price 1.11595
HL chain off 1.1134 Asian low, testing post-NFP bounce high.
Late Asia session: EURUSD has built higher lows off the 1.1134 asian low on a softer USD after oil and Iran headlines, and is now pressing the 1.1160 session high, which matches Friday's post-NFP bounce high and sits just above the 61.8% retrace of the NFP drop. RSI(14) near 64 is not stretched. The 1.1150-52 asian base and the rising trendline are the nearest floor.
Support: 1.1152, 1.11344, 1.11308
Resistance: 1.11603, 1.1170, 1.1200
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1160 session high clears the post-NFP bounce high and opens 1.1170 pre-nfp lows
Failure at 1.1160 with a loss of the 1.1152 asian base and the rising trendline returns price to the overnight range
Break of the 1.1134 asian low and 1.1131 friday low resumes the post-NFP leg lower
London open with EZ Trade Balance 07:00 UTC and Sentix 09:30 UTC could expand ranges well beyond the ~3-pip ATR
1.1200 round number is the ING consolidation pivot above. Fed's Bowman 13:40 UTC and Goolsbee 15:00 UTC are later USD-side risk
Higher lows off 1.1134 Asia low, pressing above the Asian high.
Late Asia session is edging through the Asian high at 1.1158 and testing Friday's post-NFP high at 1.1160. The move rests on a higher-low chain off the 1.1134 Asia low, with 1.1150 as the latest higher low, as USD gives back part of its payrolls pop. RSI(14) is near 66 and ATR is about 3 pips, so the push is quiet into London open.
Support: 1.11576, 1.1150, 1.11344
Resistance: 1.11598, 1.1170
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1160 post-NFP high opens the 1.1170 pre-NFP base
A close back below the 1.1158 Asian high would mark the breakout as a false break
Loss of the 1.1150 higher low breaks the Asia trendline; 1.1134 Asia low next below
London open, 07:00 UTC EZ Trade Balance and Bowman 13:40 UTC in NY session could shift this read
04:46 UTC
Intraday recovery, stalling in late Asia · RSI 57 · price 1.11569
Higher lows from the Asia open, compressing below the post-NFP high.
EUR/USD lifted from the 1.1134 Asia low to 1.1158, retracing part of Friday's NFP-driven slide on a softer USD and hawkish ECB talk. Since 01:00 UTC it has held a tight 1.1150–1.1158 band with a series of higher lows along the Asia upline, just under the 1.1160 post-NFP high. RSI(14) is near 57 and ATR is about 3 pips, so moves are small going into London.
Support: 1.1150, 1.11344
Resistance: 1.11598, 1.1172
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1160 post-NFP high opens the path to the 1.1170–1.1176 NFP shelf, Friday's pre-payrolls base
Failure to hold the 1.1150 range low and the Asia upline points back toward the 1.1134 Asia low
London open, Sentix at 09:30 UTC and Fedspeak from 13:40 UTC could break the Asian compression
Tue 13:30 UTC US CPI is the larger event risk to this read
Asian rally from 1.1134 to 1.1158, now a tight 8-pip range below the session high.
Monday's Asian rally clawed back part of Friday's NFP drop. The move ran from the 1.1134 asian low to a 1.1158 asian high, helped by hawkish ECB commentary and a softer USD. Since 01:45 UTC price has held a tight band between the 1.1150 range floor and the session high, with RSI(14) near 58 and ATR(14) about 3.4 pips. The move has held above the 23.6% level of the asian rally fib.
Support: 1.1150, 1.1134, 1.1131
Resistance: 1.1158, 1.1170, 1.1200
What it said to watch
A close above the 1.1158 asian high, which also clears Friday's 1.1160 post-NFP bounce high, opens the 1.1170 pre-nfp base, with the 1.1200 round number beyond
A break of the 1.1150 range floor would undercut the 38.2% level of the asian rally fib near 1.1149 and put the 1.1134 asian low and 1.1131 nfp low back in view
London open, Eurogroup and Trade Balance at 07:00 UTC and Sentix at 09:30 UTC may expand the current compressed range
Asian rebound stalled into tight 1.1150–1.1158 consolidation below post-NFP high.
Asia session lifted EURUSD from the 1.1134 asian low to 1.1158 on hawkish ECB December-hike talk and a softer USD. This retraced part of Friday's NFP-driven drop to the 1.1131 friday low. Since 01:15 UTC price has compressed in a 1.1150–1.1158 band with ATR near 3 pips, holding the range floor but capped beneath the asian high and the nfp high at 1.1160.
Support: 1.1150, 1.11344, 1.11308
Resistance: 1.11576, 1.11598, 1.1170
What it said to watch
Close above the 1.1160 nfp high breaks the consolidation and opens the 1.1170 pre-nfp base
Loss of the 1.1150 range floor exposes the 50% fib of the Asian move near 1.1146, then the 1.1134 asian low
Break below the 1.1131 friday low would mark a lower-low beneath the NFP flush
London open in ~3h and 09:30 UTC Sentix are likely to define the next leg out of the Asian range
Fed's Bowman at 13:40 UTC ahead of Tuesday's US CPI could materially shift this read
Higher lows off the 1.1134 Asian low, compressing below the Asian high.
Asian session rebound from 1.1134, helped by hawkish ECB December-hike talk and a softer USD, stalled at the Asian high 1.1158. Price has since compressed in a 7-pip box just above the 1.1150 round number and EMA20, with RSI(14) neutral at 54 and ATR(14) near 3.5 pips. It remains below Friday's nfp rebound high at 1.1160 and the pre-NFP base near 1.1176.
Support: 1.1150, 1.11463, 1.11344
Resistance: 1.11576, 1.11598, 1.1176
What it said to watch
A London-open close above the 1.1158 Asian high and the 1.1160 nfp rebound high would break the consolidation and bring the 1.1176 pre-NFP base into view
Losing the 1.1150 round number and the rising Asian support line exposes the 1.1146 asian pivot near the 50% fib of the Asian rally, with the 1.1134 Asian low below
EZ Trade Balance at 07:00 UTC and Sentix at 09:30 UTC are minor checks; Fed's Bowman at 13:40 UTC could shift the USD leg ahead of Tuesday's CPI
Higher lows off Asian low, tight coil below session high.
Asia bounced from the 1.1134 asian low as the USD softened, retracing most of Friday's post-NFP drop toward the 1.1160 nfp bounce high. Since topping at the 1.1158 asian high, price has coiled in a 6-pip band above the 1.1150 pullback low, holding a shallow 33% retrace of the asian rally. ATR near 4 pips reflects thin Asian flow.
Support: 1.11499, 1.11344, 1.11308
Resistance: 1.11576, 1.11598
What it said to watch
A close above the 1.1158 asian high and the 1.1160 nfp bounce high extends the asian rally toward pre-NFP levels near 1.1162–1.1170
Loss of the 1.1150 pullback low opens a deeper retrace of the asian rally into 1.1146–1.1143 (50–61.8%)
Failure to hold the 1.1134 asian low puts the 1.1131 nfp low back in play and breaks the higher-low sequence
London open with EZ Trade Balance 07:00 UTC and Sentix 09:30 UTC, then Fedspeak from 13:40 UTC, could shift this read
Asia HH/HL off 1.1134, now compressing below Asian high.
Asia session lifted EURUSD from the 1.1134 Asian low to a 1.1158 Asian high as the USD faded and hawkish ECB talk firmed. The Asian high sits just under Friday's 1.1160 post-NFP high. Price is now compressing in a 1.1150–1.1156 band above the 1.1150 psych higher low, with RSI(14) neutral near 55 and ATR around 4 pips.
Support: 1.1150, 1.11463, 1.11344
Resistance: 1.11576, 1.11598, 1.1171
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1160 post-nfp hi breaks the Asian range top and exposes the 1.1171 pre-nfp base
Loss of 1.1150 psych and the 1.1146 swing low (50% of the Asian leg fib) turns the read back toward the 1.1134 Asian low and Friday's 1.1131 low
London open could break the tight Asian range
Fed speakers from 13:40 UTC and Tuesday's US CPI could materially shift this read
Asian higher lows into a tight 1.1150–1.1157 consolidation.
Asia session has climbed from the 1.1134 asian low to 1.1158 on rising lows as USD softens on hawkish ECB talk. Price is stalling just under Friday's 1.1160 post-NFP high and is coiling 1.1150–1.1157 above the asia pivot, with RSI(14) near 59 and ATR around 4 pips.
Support: 1.1150, 1.1134, 1.1131
Resistance: 1.1160, 1.1176, 1.1200
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1160 post-NFP high opens the 1.1176 pre-NFP base, then the 1.1200 round number
Break of the 1.1150 asia pivot and the rising lows trendline puts the 1.1134 asian low and the 1.1131 NFP low back in play
London open around 07:00 UTC is the next test of the Asian range; Fedspeak from 13:40 UTC and Tuesday's US CPI could materially shift this read
Asia higher-low chain off 1.1134, compressing under the 1.1158–1.1160 highs.
Late Asia session: EURUSD has recovered from the 1.1134 asian low to a 1.1158 asian high as USD gives back part of Friday's NFP gains on hawkish ECB talk. Higher lows are holding along the rising trendline, with price coiling just under Friday's post-NFP high near 1.1160. RSI(14) is neutral near 58 and ATR is under 4 pips, consistent with thin Asian trade.
Support: 1.11499, 1.11344, 1.11308
Resistance: 1.11576, 1.11598
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1160 nfp high extends the Asian rally beyond Friday's post-payrolls bounce
Break of the rising trendline and the 1.1150 swing low ends the higher-low chain
Failure back through the 1.1134 asian low exposes the 1.1131 nfp low
London open and Eurozone trade balance at 07:00 UTC could expand the Asian range
Asian higher-low chain compressing under session high.
Asian session has lifted EUR/USD from the 1.1134 asian low to a 1.1158 asian high on a chain of rising lows, as hawkish ECB commentary fades part of Friday's NFP-driven slide. Highs have flattened since, and price is now coiling between the 1.1150 higher low and the 1.1158–1.1160 cap formed by the asian high and Friday's post-NFP high, RSI(14) near 60.
Support: 1.11499, 1.11344, 1.11308
Resistance: 1.11576, 1.11598, 1.1170
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.1160 (post-NFP high) clears the asian high and opens the 1.1170 pre-NFP base
Break of the rising lows line and the 1.1150 higher low ends the Asian HL chain, putting the 1.1134 asian low and 1.1131 NFP low back in play
London open, Eurozone trade balance (07:00 UTC) and Sentix (09:30 UTC) could break the Asian range; US CPI Tuesday 13:30 UTC is the larger risk to this read
Asia session higher-low chain off the 1.1134 asian low, stalling under the 1.1158 session high.
EUR/USD has built a higher-low chain off the 1.1134 asian low in Asia session trade on hawkish ECB talk. Price is now retesting the 1.1150 round number after stalling at the 1.1158 session high, just under Friday's 1.1160 nfp high. RSI(14) sits near 56 and ATR is about 4 pips, so the Asian range is still in development rather than extended.
Support: 1.1150, 1.11463, 1.11344
Resistance: 1.11576, 1.11598, 1.1170
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1150 round number and the asian trendline breaks the higher-low chain, exposing the 1.1146 swing low (near the 50% fib of the Asia rally) and the 1.1134 asian low
M15 close above the 1.1158 session high and 1.1160 nfp high opens the 1.1170 pre-nfp low area from Friday's London range
London open with EZ Trade Balance (07:00 UTC) and Sentix (09:30 UTC), then Fed's Bowman at 13:40 UTC, could shift the thin Asia-driven read
02:17 UTC
Asian recovery, higher lows off Monday open · RSI 58 · price 1.1154
HH/HL chain from the 1.1134 Asian low, capped at the 1.1158 Asian high.
The Asian session has retraced part of Friday's NFP slide to 1.1131. Price climbed off the 1.1134 Asian low along rising support as USD softened on Iran-peace hopes and ECB hike talk. It now sits at 1.1154 on the nfp leg fib 38.2% and just under the 1.1158 Asian high, with Friday's 1.1160 rebound high and the 50% level directly above.
Support: 1.1150, 1.1146, 1.1134
Resistance: 1.1158, 1.1169
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1158 Asian high and 1.1160 opens the 1.1169 pre-nfp base (61.8% of the nfp leg fib)
Break of rising support and the 1.1150 swing low, then the 1.1146 higher low, ends the Asian HH/HL chain
Loss of the 1.1134 Asian low reopens Friday's 1.1131 low
London open and Sentix at 09:30 UTC, then Fed's Bowman (13:40 UTC) and Goolsbee (15:00 UTC), could shift this read
02:01 UTC
Intraday uptrend off Monday open, RSI near 70 · RSI 69 · price 1.1156
Higher lows through Asia, pressing post-NFP bounce high.
Asia session climbed about 22 pips off the 1.1134 Asia low as USD softened on Iran-peace hopes and ECB hike talk, with the latest higher low at 1.1150 above the 1.1146 Asia pivot. Price is now testing the 1.1160 post-NFP high from Friday with RSI(14) near 70.
Support: 1.1150, 1.1146, 1.1134
Resistance: 1.1160, 1.1170
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1160 post-NFP high opens the 1.1170 pre-NFP base
Break of the asia trendline and the 1.1150 higher low shifts the read to a range back toward the 1.1146 asia pivot
Failure to hold the 1.1134 Asia low puts the Friday NFP low back in play
London open and EZ Trade Balance (07:00 UTC) / Sentix (09:30 UTC) could reshape the Asian range
Higher-low chain from 1.1134, capped below post-NFP high.
Asia session has rebounded from the 1.1134 Asia low after Friday's NFP slide (165K vs 65K), with higher lows forming along a rising trendline. The Asia rally ran into supply at the 1.1158 Asia high, just under Friday's 1.1160 post-NFP high, and is now easing toward the 38.2% fib near 1.1149. RSI(14) is cooling around 61 and ATR is about 5 pips.
Support: 1.11463, 1.11344, 1.11308
Resistance: 1.11576, 1.11598
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 1.1146 higher low breaks the rising trendline and ends the Asia higher-low chain
A close above the 1.1160 post-NFP high clears the Asia high and Friday's bounce top
Failure to hold the 1.1134 Asia low reopens Friday's 1.1131 NFP low
London open, then Fed's Bowman (13:40 UTC) and Goolsbee (15:00 UTC) could shift this read; US CPI is due Tue 13:30 UTC
01:31 UTC
Intraday uptrend off Monday low, testing range top · RSI 68 · price 1.1156
Higher-low chain through Asia session inside post-NFP range 1.1131–1.1160.
Asia session has lifted EUR/USD about 22 pips off the 1.1134 Monday low, a higher-low chain now pressing Friday's post-NFP high at 1.1160 with RSI(14) near 68. Price is still inside the range carved out after the 165K payrolls beat, with the 1.1172 pre-NFP base overhead.
Support: 1.1146, 1.1134
Resistance: 1.1160, 1.1172
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1160 post-NFP high opens the path to the 1.1172 pre-NFP base
Break of the 1.1146 Asia HL breaks the higher-low chain and puts the 1.1134 Monday low back in play
London open and EZ Trade Balance/Sentix (07:00/09:30 UTC) could reset the Asian range
Fed's Bowman at 13:40 UTC could materially shift this read
01:16 UTC
Micro uptrend in early Asia, retracing post-NFP losses · RSI 65 · price 1.11544
Higher lows off the 1.1134 Asian low; 1.1151 cap just broken, price under the 61.8% of the NFP drop.
The early Asia session has lifted EUR/USD off its 1.1134 Asian low with a run of higher lows. It has also closed above the 1.1151 broken cap that held for three bars, partly unwinding Friday's NFP-driven drop. Price sits just above the 50% retracement of that move, with the 1.1160 NFP bounce high and the 61.8% level directly overhead. ATR is thin at about 5 pips.
Support: 1.11513, 1.11427, 1.11344
Resistance: 1.11598, 1.1170
What it said to watch
An M15 close back below the 1.1151 broken cap returns price to the Asian range and marks the breakout as a false break
A close above the 1.1160 NFP bounce high (61.8%) opens the 1.1170 pre-NFP base
A loss of the 1.1143 higher low breaks the Asian rising line and the HL chain
EZ Trade Balance (07:00 UTC) and Sentix (09:30 UTC) around the London open, then Fed's Bowman at 13:40 UTC, could shift this read
Higher lows inside Asian range, top capped at 1.1151.
EUR/USD opened the week near Friday's close after the 165K NFP beat sent it to an nfp low of 1.1131. Early Asia printed higher lows off the 1.1134 asian low. The asian high at 1.1151 has seen three rejections and sits at the 61.8% retrace of the drop from the 1.1160 nfp bounce high.
Support: 1.11427, 1.11344, 1.11308
Resistance: 1.11513, 1.11598
What it said to watch
Close above the 1.1151 asian high opens the 1.1160 nfp bounce high
Loss of the 1.1143 higher low breaks the Asia trendline and exposes the 1.1134 asian low, then the 1.1131 nfp low
EZ Trade Balance (07:00 UTC) and Sentix (09:30 UTC) at London open; Fed's Bowman 13:40 UTC could shift the read
Asia higher lows off 1.1134, capped at 1.1151 asia high.
Monday's Asia session has lifted off the 1.1134 asia low with higher lows, but price is pinned at the 1.1151 asia high, where the 38.2% of the NFP leg and EMA50 converge. Friday's 165K payrolls beat drove the 1.1131 nfp low, and the post-NFP high at 1.1160 stalled just under the 61.8% retrace.
Support: 1.1134, 1.1131
Resistance: 1.1151, 1.1160, 1.1192
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1151 asia high opens the 1.1160 post-NFP high, with Friday's 1.1192 London high beyond
Break of the asia higher lows line and the 1.1134 asia low exposes the 1.1131 nfp low
London open with EZ Trade Balance (07:00 UTC) and Sentix (09:30 UTC) could shift this read
00:31 UTC
Downtrend paused, early Asia bounce · RSI 62 · price 1.11495
Inside post-NFP range 1.1131–1.1160.
Friday's NFP beat (165K vs 65K) drove EUR to the 1.1131 NFP low before a bounce capped at 1.1160, with the pair closing the week near 1.1136. Early Asia Monday has lifted off the 1.1134 Asia low to a 1.1151 Asia high, near the 50% retrace of the NFP drop. EMA50 sits just overhead near 1.1152.
Support: 1.11344, 1.11308
Resistance: 1.11513, 1.11598
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1151 Asia high and EMA50 opens the 1.1160 NFP bounce high, the 61.8% of the NFP drop
Failure below the 1.1134 Asia low re-exposes the 1.1131 NFP low and the post-NFP range floor
EZ Trade Balance 07:00 UTC and Sentix 09:30 UTC at London open, then Fed's Bowman 13:40 UTC, could shift the range read
00:16 UTC
Intraday recovery inside the post-NFP range · RSI 61 · price 1.11508
Asia higher-low chain off 1.1134, capped below 1.1160 post-NFP high.
Early Asia session has lifted EUR/USD from the 1.1134 monday low to 1.1151, a 61.8% retrace of the fade from Friday's 1.1160 post-NFP high, with a higher low printed at 1.1143. Price remains inside the range set after the 165K payrolls beat (nfp low 1.1131). RSI(14) near 61 shows no extreme.
Support: 1.11427, 1.11344, 1.11308
Resistance: 1.11598, 1.1180
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1160 post-NFP high breaks the range and exposes the 1.1180 pre-NFP top
Loss of the 1.1143 higher low undoes the Asia recovery; below the 1.1134 monday low the nfp low at 1.1131 is next
Fedspeak from 13:40 UTC (Bowman, Goolsbee) could shift the read during NY hours
Early Asia range 1.1134–1.1150 inside Friday's NFP range.
Friday's 165K NFP beat drove EUR/USD to a 1.1131 NFP low, and the 15:15 UTC rebound stalled at a 1.1160 post-NFP high before price drifted to 1.1136 into the close. The Asia session open bounced off a 1.1134 Asian low to a 1.1150 session high, about halfway back through the post-NFP bounce fib, with price just under EMA50 and RSI(14) near 60.
Support: 1.11344, 1.11308
Resistance: 1.11495, 1.11598
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1150 session high and EMA50 opens a retest of the 1.1160 post-NFP high
Failure to hold the 1.1134 Asian low exposes the 1.1131 NFP low
Thin Asia liquidity until London; EZ Trade Balance 07:00 UTC and Sentix 09:30 UTC can extend the range
Fedspeak from 13:40 UTC (Bowman, Goolsbee, Barkin) can shift USD tone in NY hours