Post-NFP range 1.1131–1.1160; Sunday higher low at 1.1134, testing 1.1150.
Friday's NFP beat (165K vs 65K) broke the 1.1170 pre-NFP base. The pair then printed lower highs from the 1.1160 post-NFP high. The Sunday open low at 1.1134 held just above the 1.1131 NFP low, and the early Asia session bounce is now testing the 61.8% fib near 1.1150 alongside EMA50, with a higher low at 1.1143.
Support: 1.11427, 1.11344, 1.11308
Resistance: 1.11501, 1.11598, 1.1170
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.1160 post-NFP high breaks the lower-high sequence
Rejection at the 61.8% fib near 1.1150 and a loss of the 1.1143 higher low return focus to the 1.1134 open low
Break of the 1.1131 NFP low confirms a lower-low
EZ Trade Balance 07:00 UTC, Sentix 09:30 UTC and Fed's Bowman, Goolsbee and Barkin on Monday could shift this read
Lower highs since NFP; thin Sunday open trading inside the post-payrolls range.
Friday's NFP beat (165K vs 65K) took the pair to a 1.1131 NFP low. The NFP bounce stalled at 1.1160, a 59% retrace on the nfp drop fib, and lower highs carried into the close. The thin Asia open printed a Sunday low at 1.1134 above Friday's low, and a pop to the open high at 1.1149 faded, leaving price boxed between the two.
Support: 1.11344, 1.11308
Resistance: 1.11485, 1.11598
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1131 NFP low resumes the post-payrolls downtrend
Reclaim of the 1.1149 open high exposes the 1.1160 NFP bounce and the 61.8% of the nfp drop fib
Loss of the 1.1134 Sunday low leaves only the NFP low beneath
Thin early-Asia liquidity; Fed's Bowman, Goolsbee and Barkin on Mon and US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
23:17 UTC
Downtrend, pausing at the weekly open · RSI 59 · price 1.11465
Lower highs since NFP; thin opening range just above the NFP low.
The US NFP beat pushed Friday's London-session slide through to the 1.1131 NFP low. The post-NFP bounce stalled at the 1.1160 post-NFP high, near the 50% of the NFP leg fib, and lower highs followed into the close. The thin Asia-session weekly open is holding 1.1134–1.1149 between the open low and open high, with price back above EMA20 but still below EMA50.
Support: 1.11344, 1.11308
Resistance: 1.11485, 1.11598
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1149 open high and the lower-highs trendline opens the path to the 1.1160 post-NFP high
Failure at the 1.1134 open low exposes the 1.1131 NFP low; a break there extends the lower-low sequence
Fed's Bowman, Goolsbee and Barkin speak Monday; Eurogroup and Sentix during London could shift this read
Post-NFP lower highs, holding above the 1.1131 nfp low.
The NFP beat (165K vs 65K) knocked EUR/USD from 1.1162 to the 1.1131 nfp low. The bounce met rejection at the 1.1160 post-NFP high. The NY session then printed lower highs along a falling line, and Friday closed on the bar low at 1.1136, under both EMAs, with RSI(14) near 36.
Support: 1.11308, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.11432, 1.11598
What it said to watch
A break of the 1.1131 nfp low extends the lower-low chain, with the 1.1100 round number next below
A close above the 1.1143 minor high breaks the lower-highs line from the post-NFP bounce
Monday Asia open after the weekend: gap risk away from the 1.1136 close
Fed speakers Bowman, Goolsbee and Barkin on Monday could shift this read
Lower highs after NFP bounce, pressing session low.
The NFP beat (165K vs 65K) at 13:30 UTC broke the pre-release floor and ran price to the 1.1131 NFP low. The bounce stalled at 1.1160, below the 38.2% of the day decline, and NY closed the week on a chain of lower highs into the 1.1136 late low. RSI(14) sits near 37 and ATR has compressed to about 3 pips, with no recovery structure in place.
Support: 1.11357, 1.11308
Resistance: 1.11468, 1.11598, 1.11672
What it said to watch
Monday reopen below the 1.1136 late low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.1131 NFP low
A break of the 1.1131 NFP low leaves no intraday floor inside this window
M15 close above the lower highs trendline near 1.1147 breaks the post-NFP sequence; the 1.1160 NFP bounce high is the next cap
Reclaim of the 1.1167 London low invalidates the post-NFP downtrend read
Fed's Bowman, Goolsbee and Barkin (Mon) plus EZ trade balance at 07:00 UTC could shift the read after the weekend reopen
Lower highs under descending cap after NFP range break.
The NFP beat (165K vs 65K) broke the London range floor near 1.1159 and set a 1.1131 nfp low. The rebound was rejected at the 1.1160 post-NFP high, close to the 61.8% of the NFP leg. Late NY printed lower highs under a descending cap, and the week closed on the 1.1136 late low with RSI(14) near 37 and ATR compressed to about 4 pips.
Support: 1.11357, 1.11308
Resistance: 1.11432, 1.11598
What it said to watch
A gap or break below the 1.1131 nfp low at the Monday Asia open extends the lower-low sequence
A recovery above the 1.1143 late cap and the descending trendline breaks the late NY lower-high chain
Reclaiming the 1.1160 post-NFP high, at the 61.8% of the NFP leg, invalidates the post-NFP downtrend read
Fed speakers Bowman, Goolsbee and Barkin on Mon, plus Mon Sentix (09:30 UTC), could materially shift this read ahead of Tue US CPI
21:31 UTC
Downtrend, momentum thinning into Friday close · RSI 38 · price 1.11361
Lower highs since post-NFP bounce, close on late low.
The NFP beat (165K vs 65K) broke below the London low at 1.1167 and set a 1.1131 NFP low. The bounce stalled at the 1.1160 post-NFP high, and late NY ground lower under a falling lower-high line, closing Friday on the 1.1136 late low with RSI(14) near 38 and ATR at about 4 pips.
Support: 1.11357, 1.11308
Resistance: 1.11432, 1.11598, 1.11672
What it said to watch
Monday open below the 1.1136 late low exposes the 1.1131 NFP low
Reclaiming the 1.1143 lower high and the falling trendline breaks the late-NY lower-high sequence; the 1.1160 post-NFP high is next above
Fed's Bowman, Goolsbee and Barkin plus EZ Sentix on Monday could shift this read early in the session
21:16 UTC
Downtrend, grinding lower into weekly close · RSI 37 · price 1.11361
Lower highs from post-NFP high, retesting nfp low.
The NFP beat (165K vs 65K) knocked EUR/USD out of its 1.117 London range to the 1.1131 nfp low. The bounce stalled at the 1.1160 post-NFP high, and late NY hours printed a lower-high sequence, capped near the 1.1143 late high. Price closed the week at 1.1136, sitting on the late low and retesting the nfp low, with RSI(14) near 37 and ATR compressed to roughly 4 pips.
Support: 1.11357, 1.11308
Resistance: 1.11432, 1.11598
What it said to watch
Break below the 1.1131 nfp low extends the post-NFP lower-low sequence
Recapture of the 1.1143 late high stalls the grind; above the 1.1160 post-NFP high the lower-high trendline read breaks
Monday Asia session reopen after the weekend could print a gap away from the 1.1136 late low
Fed's Bowman, Goolsbee and Barkin speak Mon; US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC is the next major risk to this read
21:01 UTC
Downtrend, late-session drift into the weekly close · RSI 36 · price 1.11361
Lower highs and lower lows since Asia; post-NFP bounce failed near the 50% fib.
The NFP beat (165K vs 65K) drove a 20-pip drop in the 13:30 UTC bar, extending a slide that began in Asia from 1.1234 to the nfp low at 1.1131. The bounce stalled at the post-NFP high of 1.1160, close to the 50% fib of the London-to-NFP leg. Late NY then printed lower highs under the 1.1143 late cap and closed the week at 1.1136, a few pips above the NFP low.
Support: 1.11308, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.11432, 1.11598, 1.11672
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1131 nfp low extends the lower-low sequence and opens the path to the 1.1100 round number
Reclaim of the 1.1143 late cap breaks the lower-highs trendline
The bearish read stays intact while price is below the 1.1160 post-nfp hi and the 1.1167 london low
Monday open gap risk after the weekend; Fed speakers Bowman, Goolsbee and Barkin speak Monday
US CPI on Tue 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
20:57 UTC
Downtrend, late-NY drift lower into the weekly close · RSI 36 · price 1.11361
Lower highs since the post-NFP bounce, last close 5 pips above the NFP low.
The NFP beat (165K vs 65K) broke the London range below the 1.1167 London low and flushed EUR/USD to the 1.1131 NFP low. The NY bounce stalled at the 1.1160 post-NFP high, and lower highs drove a slow grind into Friday's close at 1.1136, with RSI(14) near 36 and ATR shrinking to about 4 pips.
Support: 1.11308, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.11432, 1.11598, 1.11672
What it said to watch
A break below the 1.1131 NFP low opens the 1.1100 round number
A recovery above the 1.1143 late NY cap breaks the post-NFP lower highs line
Reclaiming the 1.1160 post-NFP high puts the 1.1167 London low back in play
Monday open gap risk, with Fed's Bowman, Goolsbee and Barkin speaking Mon, ahead of Tue US CPI
20:18 UTC
Downtrend, grinding lower into Friday close · RSI 37 · price 1.11361
Post-NFP lower highs below 1.11598, price at the late low.
The NFP beat (165K vs 65K) took EUR/USD from the 1.117 area to a 1.11308 NFP low. The bounce was rejected at the 1.11598 bounce high, close to the 61.8% retracement of the NFP drop, and lower highs since then pushed price back to the 1.11357 late low into the Friday close, with RSI(14) near 37 and price below both EMAs.
Support: 1.11357, 1.11308
Resistance: 1.11432, 1.11598, 1.11731
What it said to watch
Loss of the 1.11308 NFP low extends the post-NFP lower-low sequence
Recovery above the 1.11432 minor high breaks the late-session lower highs
Monday Asia open and Fed speakers (Bowman, Goolsbee, Barkin) are the next inputs; US CPI on Tue could materially shift this read
Only a reclaim of the 1.11731 pre-nfp high would undo the NFP drop on this timeframe
19:22 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs into Friday close · RSI 37 · price 1.11361
The NFP beat (165K vs 65K) knocked EURUSD through the London low at 1.1167 to an NFP low of 1.1131 in the first hour of NY. The bounce stalled at the 1.1160 post-NFP high, and price then slid below the 1.1145 range floor under a falling trendline. Friday closed at the session low, 1.1136, with RSI(14) near 37, not stretched.
Support: 1.11308, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.11445, 1.11598, 1.11672
What it said to watch
A break below the 1.1131 NFP low extends the lower-low sequence and puts the 1.1100 round number in view.
A recovery above the 1.1145 range floor and the falling trendline would neutralise the late-NY fade, with the 1.1160 post-NFP high and 1.1167 London low next above.
The market is shut for the weekend, so a gap at the Asia open can reprice these levels.
Monday's Fed speakers (Bowman, Goolsbee, Barkin) and EZ Sentix could materially shift this read.