The early-September high at 1.1654 started a LH/LL decline that ran to 1.1161 in early October. The pair has since ranged for about five weeks between the range low at 1.1104 and the range high near 1.1273, with lows edging marginally lower and highs flat. This week's push to the range high was rejected after Friday's NFP beat (165K vs 65K) revived the USD bid. That move erased the weekly gains and left the close at 1.1136, back below the ema20 near 1.1190 and the falling EMA(50).
Support: 1.1104, 1.1000
Resistance: 1.1190, 1.1273, 1.1380
What it said to watch
Daily close below the 1.1104 range low resumes the LH/LL downtrend and exposes the 1.1000 round number
Daily close above the 1.1273 range high breaks the range and brings the 1.1380 sep pivot (late-Sep breakdown area) into view
Reclaiming the ema20 near 1.1190 would put price back mid-range
US CPI Tue Nov 10 and EZ HICP Wed Nov 11 could materially shift this read; crowded EUR shorts add squeeze risk on a hawkish ECB surprise
19:23 UTC
Downtrend, paused in a multi-week range · RSI 37 · price 1.11361
Lower highs and lower lows from the Sep 9 peak; flat range 1.1104–1.1273 since mid-October.
The sep-oct decline from the Sep 9 peak at 1.1654 put in a lower-high, lower-low sequence into the Oct 29 low at 1.1104. That low has since held as the range low of a four-week range capped near 1.1273. The early-November push met rejection at the range high, and Friday's NFP beat (165K vs 65K) erased the week's gains. EURUSD closed at 1.1136, back below the ema20 near 1.1190, with the EMA(50) still falling overhead.
Support: 1.1104, 1.1000
Resistance: 1.1190, 1.1273, 1.1314
What it said to watch
A daily close below the 1.1104 range low resumes the lower-low sequence and exposes the 1.1000 round number
A reclaim of the ema20 near 1.1190 and then the 1.1273 range high would break the lower-high chain; the 38.2% fib of the sep-oct decline sits at 1.1314
US CPI on Tue Nov 10 at 13:30 UTC and EZ HICP on Wed Nov 11 at 07:00 UTC could materially shift this read
RSI at 37 is near the lower end of its recent cycle, with no oversold reading yet