22:24 UTC
Downtrend, momentum re-accelerating · RSI 35 · price 1.10556
Lower highs and lower lows since the late-August 1.1711 peak; October range broken to the downside this week.
EURUSD has held a lower-high, lower-low sequence since the late-August 1.1711 peak, with price below a falling EMA(20) at 1.1180 and EMA(50) at 1.1273, and the early-November high stalled right at the ema50. This week's close through the oct floor near 1.1104 ended a five-week 1.1104–1.1273 range. The move came after hot US CPI and Waller floating a 50bp hike, which pushed the pair to a 19m low of 1.1045. ATR has expanded from about 57 to 70 pips, and RSI at 35 is falling but not yet oversold.
Support: 1.10454, 1.1000
Resistance: 1.11042, 1.11795, 1.12729
What it said to watch
- Fed Chair Warsh on Mon 16 Nov could materially shift this read: a push-back on 50bp risks a squeeze back toward the oct floor
- A daily close back above the 1.1104 oct floor would mark the range break as a false break
- A daily close below the 1.1000 round number extends the lower-low chain beyond the 19m low
- RSI below 30 would put the decline in genuine oversold territory
- A reclaim of the ema20 at 1.1180 would be the first break of the lower-high structure; the ema50 near 1.1273 caps the wider swing
- US Retail Sales Tue 17 Nov and EZ CPI the same day are the next data risks