EUR/USD AI Live Scan, 15-minute chart, Friday, 13 November 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the EUR/USD 15-minute chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:12 UTC
Downtrend, momentum fading into the close · RSI 33 · price 1.10208
Lower highs and lower lows since the NY break of the London low.
Sellers faded the PPI spike to 1.1069 at the NY open. The early-NY drop then broke the London low at 1.1044, and price stepped down along a line of lower highs to a fresh session low at 1.1019 into the weekly close. Price sits below the ema20 (1.1026) and ema50 (1.1036), with RSI at 33 just above oversold and ATR compressed to 4.3 pips as the move loses pace.
Support: 1.10192, 1.1000
Resistance: 1.10263, 1.10362, 1.1044
What it said to watch
A close back above the ema20 at 1.1026 and the lower highs line weakens the downtrend read
Failure to hold the 1.1019 session low leaves the 1.1000 round number as the next reference
A reclaim of the london low at 1.1044 negates the range break
Fed's Jefferson tonight and Warsh Mon 17:00 UTC add gap risk at the Monday open
22:31 UTC
Downtrend, momentum fading into the weekly close · RSI 33 · price 1.10208
Lower highs below both EMAs after NY broke the London range low.
The PPI spike to 1.1069 was rejected, and a mid-NY break of the London low at 1.1044 ran to 1.1026 on the Fed-driven dollar bid. Late NY has ground out lower highs along a descending line, capped by the 1.1027 lower high and EMA20, to a 1.1019 session low. RSI(14) is at 33 and ATR is compressing to 4.3 pips into the weekly close.
Support: 1.10192, 1.1000
Resistance: 1.10266, 1.10362, 1.1044
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.1027 lower high and the descending line breaks the lower-high sequence
Reclaim of the ema50 at 1.1036 would neutralise the post-break downtrend
Loss of the 1.1019 session low puts the 1.1000 round number in play
Fed's Jefferson after the weekly close, with Warsh on Monday, could gap the open and shift this read
Lower highs since the NY bounce, new session low into Friday close.
The soft US PPI spike to 1.1069 was rejected. NY then broke the London low at 1.1044 and the 1.1045 19-month low zone, with the dollar bid on Fed hike pricing, and lower highs have pressed price to a fresh session low at 1.1020. RSI(14) at 29.7 is marginally oversold, ATR has compressed to 4.5 pips, and price holds below ema20 (1.1027) and ema50 (1.1037).
Support: 1.10196, 1.1000
Resistance: 1.10269, 1.10361, 1.1044
What it said to watch
M15 close above ema20 at 1.1027 and the lower highs line breaks the late-session grind
Reclaim of the 1.1036 bounce high would put the London low at 1.1044 back in play
Failure to hold the 1.1020 session low exposes the 1.1000 round number
Fed's Jefferson at 00:00 UTC could jolt thin late-Friday liquidity
Lower highs after the NY break of the London low, grinding at session lows.
The PPI move to 1.1069 was sold. NY broke the 1.1044 london low and extended to a 1.1021 session low late in NY, with lower highs capped under the ema20 at 1.1029. RSI(14) sits at 29.9, oversold, and ATR has compressed to 4.6 pips as Fed-hike pricing keeps the USD bid.
Support: 1.10209, 1.1000
Resistance: 1.10294, 1.10361, 1.1044
What it said to watch
M15 close above the ema20 at 1.1029 and the lower-highs line weakens the downtrend read
Clearing the 1.1036 lower high reopens the 1.1039 38.2% retrace of the PPI move, level with the 1.1039 ema50
Failure to hold the 1.1021 session low leaves the 1.1000 round number as the next reference
Fed's Jefferson in ~3h could shift this read in thin late-NY/Asia liquidity
20:31 UTC
Downtrend, momentum fading into late NY · RSI 31 · price 1.10222
Lower highs and lower lows after the post-PPI range break; tight drift at session low.
No narrative produced.
Support: 1.10214, 1.1000
Resistance: 1.10303, 1.10361, 1.10427
What it said to watch
Close below the 1.1021 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.1000 psych handle
M15 close back above the ema20 at 1.1030 and the lower-highs trendline weakens the downtrend read
Recovery through the 1.1036 swing high toward the 1.1043 prior low would mark a failed range break
Fed's Jefferson at 00:00 UTC, in about 3.5h, could jolt thin late-session liquidity
20:16 UTC
Downtrend, momentum fading into Friday close · RSI 32 · price 1.10219
Lower highs after 15:15 UTC range break; fresh late-NY session low.
The PPI spike to 1.1069 was rejected, and the 15:15 UTC drop through the 1.1044 broken low (19-month low area) left a chain of lower highs capped under the ema20 at 1.1031, with late NY printing a fresh session low at 1.1021 on a Fed-driven dollar bid. RSI 31.6 sits just above oversold, and ATR has compressed to 4.9 pips from 8.0 as the move slows into the weekend.
Support: 1.10214, 1.1000
Resistance: 1.10312, 1.10361, 1.1044
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1021 session low extends the lower-high chain toward the 1.1000 psych level
Recovery above the 1.1036 lower high and the lower-highs trendline breaks the NY-afternoon downtrend read
Reclaim of the 1.1044 broken low would turn the 15:15 UTC breakdown into a false break
Fed's Jefferson at 00:00 UTC and Warsh on Monday 17:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs below 1.1036 after a range break under the 1.1044 broken low.
The 13:30 UTC PPI spike to 1.1069 met rejection, and the dollar bid then broke the 1.1044 London low (broken low) in early NY. The post-PPI leg ran to a 1.1021 session low, with bounces capped at the 1.1036 swing high and a lower high at 1.1034 along the descending trendline. Price sits below the ema20 (1.1032) and ema50 in late NY, with RSI(14) at 31.8, near but not oversold, and ATR compressed to 5.1 pips.
Support: 1.10214, 1.1000
Resistance: 1.10321, 1.10361, 1.1044
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.1021 session low exposes the 1.1000 round number
M15 close above the 1.1036 swing high and descending trendline breaks the lower-high sequence
Reclaim of the 1.1044 broken low, near 50% of the post-PPI leg, would neutralise the range-break read
Fed's Jefferson at 00:00 UTC, and Warsh on Monday, could materially shift this read
19:46 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since PPI spike · RSI 32 · price 1.10226
Late-NY break of the 1.1027–1.1036 range to a fresh session low.
The post-PPI spike to 1.1069 was rejected. The NY sell-off then cut through the London low near 1.1043 and the 1.1045 19-month low, holding a run of lower highs under a firm USD on Fed-hike pricing. Late NY price slipped out of the 1.1027–1.1036 range to a session low at 1.1021, below ema20 (1.1033) and ema50 (1.1042), with RSI 32.1 not yet oversold and ATR compressed to 5.3 pips into the Friday close; the 38.2% of the PPI fib sits near the 1.1040s.
Support: 1.10214, 1.1000
Resistance: 1.1033, 1.1043
What it said to watch
M15 close back above ema20 at 1.1033 puts price back inside the prior range and weakens the range-break read
Reclaim of the london low at 1.1043 would break the lower-highs line from the PPI high
Extension through the session low at 1.1021 brings the 1.1000 round number into view
Fed's Jefferson at 00:00 UTC, after the thin Friday close, is the next scheduled USD risk
Lower highs after the NY breakdown; tight range above 1.1026.
The soft-PPI spike to the 1.1069 PPI high was rejected, and the 15:15 UTC break extended London's slide below the Asian range to a 1.1026 session low as the USD bid held. Since then, late in NY after London close, price has compressed in a 10-pip band under a falling ema20 (1.1034) and lower highs, with ATR easing to 5.2 pips and RSI at 35.
Support: 1.10256, 1.1000
Resistance: 1.10361, 1.10432, 1.10693
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1036 range top breaks the lower-highs sequence and puts the ema50 at 1.1043 in play
Failure to hold the 1.1026 session low confirms a lower low and exposes the 1.1000 psych handle
Fed's Jefferson at 00:00 UTC, about 4.5h out, could materially shift this read in thin liquidity
Post-breakdown range 1.1026–1.1036 with lower highs.
Late in the NY session, EUR/USD sits at 1.1028. Earlier in NY it broke the 1.1043 broken low left by the London and post-PPI swings and printed a session low at 1.1026 during the Fed-speaker slate. Since then it has compressed in a 1.1026–1.1036 range, with the range top aligned with the ema20 and a run of lower highs pressing price onto the floor. RSI(14) is at 36 and ATR(14) has eased to 5.7 pips.
Support: 1.10256, 1.1000
Resistance: 1.10361, 1.10427
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1026 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.1000 psych handle
Close above the 1.1036 range top and ema20 breaks the lower-highs line and opens a retest of the 1.1043 broken low
Fed's Jefferson speaks in ~5h into thin late-Friday liquidity; Warsh on Monday is the larger risk to this read
18:46 UTC
Downtrend, momentum fading into late NY · RSI 36 · price 1.10283
Lower highs below ema20 after the post-PPI breakdown, tight base at the session low.
The PPI spike to 1.1069 was rejected at once. The 15:15 UTC leg then broke the 1.1043 prior low and the 1.1045 19-month-low area, printing a 1.1026 session low as the USD bid held through the Fed-speaker slate. Since then price has held in a 1.1027–1.1036 consolidation below the ema20, with lower highs capping. RSI(14) sits at 36 and ATR has compressed from 8 to 6 pips.
Support: 1.10256, 1.1000
Resistance: 1.10361, 1.10365, 1.10427
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1036 range top and the ema20 at 1.10365 breaks the lower-highs sequence
Reclaiming the 1.1043 prior low would turn the breakdown into a false break
Loss of the 1.1026 session low extends the downtrend toward the 1.1000 round number
Fed's Jefferson at 00:00 UTC could shift this read in thin Asia trade
Range break lower in NY hours; tight 1.1026–1.1036 base below falling EMAs.
Price spiked to 1.1069 on the PPI release, then broke the 1.1043 prior low in a sharp NY-session leg to a 1.1026 session low, extending USD strength on Fed-hike pricing. Since then it has built a tight base at 1.1027–1.1036, capped by the bounce high and below a falling ema20 (1.1037) and ema50 (1.1046). RSI(14) has recovered to 40.8 from 29.7, and ATR has compressed to 6.1 pips from 8.0.
Support: 1.10271, 1.10256, 1.1000
Resistance: 1.10361, 1.10374, 1.10427
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1026 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.1000 psych level
Reclaim of the 1.1036 bounce high and ema20 brings the 38.2% drop fib near 1.1039 into play
Acceptance back above the 1.1043 prior low would negate the range-break read
Fed's Jefferson at 00:00 UTC into thin late-Friday liquidity; Warsh Mon 17:00 UTC is the larger risk
18:15 UTC
Downtrend, compressing after NY breakdown · RSI 39 · price 1.10313
Lower highs below ema20, tight 1.1026–1.1036 band above session low.
The post-PPI spike to 1.1069 was rejected as Fed-hike pricing kept USD bid. The 14:45 UTC leg then broke the 1.1044 London floor and printed a session low at 1.1026. Since then, late NY hours after London close have compressed into a 1.1026–1.1036 band, with lower highs capped under the ema20 (1.1038) and the 38.2% retrace of the PPI drop fib, while RSI(14) holds at 39 after a 29.7 dip and ATR eases to 6.2 pips.
Support: 1.10256, 1.1000
Resistance: 1.10361, 1.10379, 1.1044
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1036 bounce high and ema20 at 1.1038 breaks the lower-highs sequence
Failure to hold the 1.1026 session low exposes the 1.1000 round number
1.1044 broken floor, also the 50% PPI drop fib, is an area to watch for rejection on any retest
Fed's Jefferson at 00:00 UTC into thin Asia session liquidity could shift this read
18:02 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs into late NY · RSI 33 · price 1.10276
LH/LL sequence after London-lows break; tight drift above session low.
Softer US PPI gave EUR no relief as Fed-hike pricing kept USD bid. The PPI spike to 1.1069 met rejection, and the mid-NY break of the 1.1043-1.1044 London lows ran to a 1.1026 session low, below the 1.1045 area flagged as the 19-month low. The late-NY bounce stalled at a 1.1036 lower high, with price under both EMAs and RSI(14) at 33 after a sub-30 dip.
Support: 1.10256, 1.1000
Resistance: 1.10361, 1.10386, 1.1044
What it said to watch
Loss of the 1.1026 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.1000 round number
Close back above the 1.1036 lower high and ema20 (1.1039) breaks the lower-high sequence
Reclaim of the 1.1044 broken low, near the 38.2% of the post-PPI leg, would neutralise the breakdown read
Fed's Jefferson ~00:00 UTC in thin Friday-close liquidity; Warsh on Monday is the larger risk to this read
Post-break consolidation under broken low, lower highs since PPI.
NY rejected the soft-PPI spike to 1.1069 and broke the day's 1.1043 low, now the broken low and the 38.2% retrace of the PPI drop, before tagging a 1.1026 session low. Since then price has held a tight band capped by the 1.1036 range top, under a falling ema20 at 1.1041, with RSI at 35 and ATR easing to 6.8 pips as the move pauses.
Support: 1.10256, 1.1000
Resistance: 1.10361, 1.10409, 1.1043
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1036 range top, then the ema20 at 1.1041, would point to a retest of the 1.1043 broken low
Acceptance back above the 1.1043 broken low undoes the range break
Loss of the 1.1026 session low exposes the 1.1000 round number
Fed's Jefferson speaks in ~6h (00:00 UTC) and could shift this read in thin Asia session liquidity
17:31 UTC
Downtrend, below both falling EMAs · RSI 35 · price 1.10302
Range break lower in NY, lower highs since London open.
The PPI spike to 1.1069 was rejected and NY broke below the 1.1044 london low, printing a 1.1026 session low. The bounce high at 1.1036 stalled under a falling ema20 (1.1041), with RSI(14) at 35 and ATR easing to 6.8 pips. Soft US PPI gave EUR no relief as Fed-hike pricing keeps the dollar bid.
Support: 1.10256, 1.1000
Resistance: 1.10361, 1.10409, 1.1044
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 1.1044 london low negates the range break
Break of 1.1026 session low exposes the 1.1000 round number
Holding below the ema20 and the 1.1036 bounce high keeps the lower-high sequence intact
Fed's Jefferson at 00:00 UTC into thin late-Friday liquidity could shift this read
17:16 UTC
Downtrend, pausing after NY breakdown · RSI 37 · price 1.10335
Break below day lows, tight base under broken support.
The PPI spike to 1.1069 was rejected in the NY session. A mid-NY selloff from the 1.1060 swing high then broke the 1.1044 day lows to a 1.1026 session low as Fed-hike pricing kept USD bid. Price is basing above a 1.1029 higher low but stays capped at the 1.1036 bounce high, below both EMAs, with RSI(14) at 37 after a sub-30 dip and ATR(14) at 7 pips.
Support: 1.1029, 1.10256, 1.1000
Resistance: 1.10361, 1.10421, 1.10595
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1036 bounce high puts the ema20 / 50% fib cluster at 1.1042-1.1043 (old day lows) in play
Failure to hold the 1.1029 higher low reopens the 1.1026 session low, with the 1.1000 round number below
Acceptance back above the 1.1060 swing high negates the breakdown read
Fed's Daly speaking now and Jefferson at 00:00 UTC could shift Fed-hike pricing into a thin Friday close
17:01 UTC
Downtrend, basing after NY flush · RSI 37 · price 1.10342
Lower highs from London open; Asian range and London low broken, tight base above session low.
The PPI spike to 1.1069 failed below the London open high, and the 15:15 UTC flush broke the Asian range and the 1.1044 London low, making a session low at 1.1026 as the USD bid on 50bp Fed bets held. After London close, price is basing between 1.1029 and the 1.1036 bounce high, below the ema20 (1.1043) in the post-PPI drop. RSI(14) is back at 37 from its sub-30 dip and ATR is easing to 7.2 pips.
Support: 1.10256, 1.1000
Resistance: 1.10361, 1.1044, 1.10595
What it said to watch
A close back above the London low and ema20 at 1.1043–1.1044 (also near the 38.2% of the post-PPI drop) would negate the range break
A break above the 1.1060 lower high would end the lower highs sequence
Failure to hold the 1.1026 session low leaves the 1.1000 psych level as the next reference
Fed's Daly is speaking now and Jefferson is due in ~7h; hawkish 50bp remarks could extend the move in thin late-Friday trade
16:46 UTC
Downtrend, consolidating after breakdown · RSI 36 · price 1.10331
Lower highs since London open; NY broke prior low support.
After the London-open rejection at 1.1073, the post-PPI spike to 1.1069 also failed, extending the lower highs. NY then broke the 1.1043 prior low, which the digest frames as the 19-month low, and fell to a 1.1026 session low on the entrenched USD bid. Price is consolidating under a 1.1036 bounce high, below ema20 (1.1044) and ema50 (1.1051). RSI(14) has recovered to 36 after a brief sub-30 dip, and ATR(14) has expanded to 7.4 pips.
Support: 1.10256, 1.1000
Resistance: 1.10361, 1.10427, 1.10509
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.1043 prior low (ema20 confluence) would undo the breakdown read
Clearance of the 1.1036 bounce high puts the 38.2–50% fib of the post-PPI drop (~1.1043–1.1047) in play
Failure to hold the 1.1026 session low leaves the 1.1000 psych level as the next reference
Fed's Daly at 17:00 UTC could shift this read in thin late-NY Friday trade
ema50 at 1.1051 and the lower highs line cap any deeper retracement
16:31 UTC
Downtrend, oversold bounce under way · RSI 39 · price 1.10358
Lower highs from London; NY broke London low, bouncing off session low.
The soft US PPI spike to 1.1069 was rejected below the London high, extending lower highs, and NY then broke the 1.1044 London low (also the 19-month low) to print a session low at 1.1026 as the Fed-hike dollar bid persisted. Price is bouncing at 1.1036, below the ema20 (1.1045) and ema50 (1.1052). RSI(14) has recovered to 38.7 after a brief oversold dip, and ATR has expanded to 7.7 pips.
Support: 1.10256, 1.1000
Resistance: 1.1044, 1.10517, 1.10693
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 1.1044 London low, near the 38.2% of the PPI leg, would mark the breakdown as a false break
A failure to hold the 1.1026 session low opens the 1.1000 psych level
ema50 at 1.1052 caps any recovery below the 1.1069 PPI spike high
Fed's Daly speaks in ~30 min (17:00 UTC) and could move this read into the Friday close
16:16 UTC
Downtrend, fresh leg lower after NY breakdown · RSI 34 · price 1.10332
Day range broken to the downside, lower highs since the PPI spike.
The soft-PPI spike to the 1.1069 ppi high was rejected within a bar. The 15:15 UTC drop then broke the 1.1043 broken low from London and NY hours and printed a 1.1026 session low, as entrenched Fed-hike pricing keeps USD bid. Price sits below the ema20 (1.1046) with ATR expanding to 7.9 pips, and RSI(14) has lifted to 34 from a sub-30 dip.
Support: 1.10256, 1.1000
Resistance: 1.10427, 1.10464, 1.10693
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 1.1043 broken low and the ema20 at 1.1046 would undercut the breakdown read
Failure to hold the 1.1026 session low exposes the 1.1000 round number
Fed's Daly at 17:00 UTC (~44 min) could materially shift this read
A move back above the lower highs trendline from the 1.1069 ppi high would break the lower-high sequence
16:01 UTC
Downtrend, selling accelerating in NY session · RSI 30 · price 1.10296
Lower highs from 1.1073; day low 1.1043 broken, new low 1.1026.
The soft-PPI spike to 1.1069 was rejected, extending the lower-high sequence from the London open high, and the NY session then broke the 1.1043 broken low to a 1.1026 session low as Fed hike bets kept the dollar bid. RSI(14) at 29.7 is oversold, ATR has expanded to 8 pips from about 5, and price sits below both EMAs.
Support: 1.10256, 1.1000
Resistance: 1.10427, 1.10479, 1.10693
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 1.1043 broken low would mark the range break as a false break
Failure to hold the 1.1026 session low leaves the 1.1000 psych level about 26 pips below
The ema20 at 1.1048 and the lower highs line are the overhead caps on any bounce
Bowman remarks and Daly at 17:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs since London open; NY broke below the 1.1044 floor.
The soft US PPI spike to 1.10693 was rejected, extending the chain of lower highs from the 1.10726 London open high. NY then broke the 1.1044 broken low, the 19-month low zone in the digest, printing a 1.10345 session low as the Fed-repricing USD bid held. RSI(14) sits at 33.4 with ATR expanding to 7.8 pips, and price is below the ema20 (1.1052) and ema50 (1.10551).
Support: 1.10345, 1.1000
Resistance: 1.1044, 1.1052, 1.10595
What it said to watch
Fed's Bowman in ~19 min and Daly at 17:00 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close back above the 1.1044 broken low would turn the break into a false break
Failure to hold the 1.10345 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.1000 psych level
Close above the ema20 at 1.1052 and the 1.10595 lower high breaks the lower-high chain; the PPI spike fib 50% sits near 1.1052
15:15 UTC
Sideways to heavy, lower highs since London · RSI 51 · price 1.10533
1.1043–1.1073 range with lower highs; NY rebounding from session low.
The softer US PPI produced a spike to 1.10693 that was rejected within one bar. Price then slipped to a 1.10427 session low before rebounding to a 1.10595 bounce high, near the 61.8% of the PPI spike fib. Price now sits between EMA20 (1.10538) and EMA50 (1.10559), and the lower highs from the 1.10726 London high keep the range top capped, with RSI(14) neutral at 51 and ATR(14) expanding to 6.7 pips.
Support: 1.10492, 1.10427
Resistance: 1.10559, 1.10595, 1.10693
What it said to watch
Fed's Bowman (15:50 UTC) and Daly (17:00 UTC) could materially shift this read given 50bp hike pricing
M15 close above the ema50 and the 1.10595 bounce high reopens the ppi spike high at 1.10693 and the lower highs line
Loss of the 1.10492 swing low exposes the 1.10427 session low; a close below it breaks the range floor near the 19-month low
15:00 UTC
Sideways to heavy, lower highs since London · RSI 53 · price 1.10561
Lower highs from 1.1073, lows swept at 1.1043 and reclaimed, 1.1043–1.1073 session range.
The soft US PPI spike to 1.1069 at 13:30 UTC was rejected. A sweep below the 1.1044 London low to a 1.1043 NY low was then reclaimed, and the bounce high at 1.1060 stalled at the 61.8% of that PPI swing. Price sits on the ema50 near 1.1056 and above the ema20, under a falling trendline from the London high, with RSI(14) neutral at 52.7 and ATR(14) expanded to 6.6 pips through NY hours.
Support: 1.10536, 1.10427
Resistance: 1.10595, 1.10693, 1.10726
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1060 bounce high and the lower-high trendline reopens the 1.1069 ppi spike and the 1.1073 london high
Close back below the ema20 at 1.1054 returns focus to the 1.1043 ny low
Failure to hold the 1.1043 ny low confirms a lower-low below the London lows
Fed's Bowman (15:50 UTC) and Daly (17:00 UTC) on 50bp December pricing could materially shift this read
14:46 UTC
Ranging under lower highs, near 19-month lows · RSI 50 · price 1.10553
1.1043–1.1073 range; lower highs since London open, flat base at 1.1043–1.1046.
Soft US PPI lifted the pair to a 1.1069 ppi high, which was rejected below the 1.1073 london high and extended the lower highs. The pullback briefly undercut the base to a 1.1043 session low before closing back inside the range. Price now sits between the ema20 at 1.1053 and the ema50 at 1.1056, which lines up with the 50% retrace of the PPI drop; RSI(14) is neutral at 50 and ATR(14) has expanded to 6.7 pips.
Support: 1.10533, 1.10427
Resistance: 1.10559, 1.10693, 1.10726
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1043 session low breaks the base near the 19-month low
Close above the ema50 / 50% retrace at 1.1056 opens a retest of the 1.1069 ppi high
Acceptance above the 1.1073 london high breaks the lower highs sequence
Fed's Bowman (15:50 UTC) and Daly (17:00 UTC) on 50bp hike odds could materially shift this read
14:31 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since London open · RSI 41 · price 1.10475
The slightly soft US PPI headline sparked a spike to the 1.10693 ppi high that was rejected within the hour. NY has since printed a fresh session low at 1.10427, just under Thursday's prior low at 1.10454, extending the lower-high trendline from the 1.10726 London open high. Price sits below the ema20 and ema50 with RSI(14) at 41.3, and ATR(14) has expanded to 6.5 pips after the data.
Support: 1.10454, 1.10427, 1.1000
Resistance: 1.10532, 1.1056, 1.10693
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.10427 session low extends the lower-low sequence and puts the 1.1000 round number in view
Reclaim of the ema20 at 1.10532 and the ema50 at 1.1056 would neutralise the post-PPI down-leg
Close above the 1.10693 ppi high breaks the lower-high trendline
Fed's Bowman in ~80 min and Daly in ~2.5h could materially shift this read
14:16 UTC
Intraday downtrend, below both EMAs · RSI 46 · price 1.10512
Lower highs since London open; PPI spike rejected below the London high.
EUR/USD spiked to a 1.1069 ppi high on the softer US PPI headline. The move fully reversed back to the 1.1050 ppi low, retracing most of the drop from the London high to the 1.1044 session low before rejection. Price sits below a falling ema20 (1.1054) and ema50 (1.1056), RSI(14) is 45.5, and ATR has expanded to 6.3 pips since the print.
Support: 1.10496, 1.1044
Resistance: 1.10538, 1.10564, 1.10693
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1044 session low extends the London-NY lower-low sequence toward 1.1000
Close back above the ema50 at 1.1056 and the 1.1069 ppi high negates the post-PPI rejection
Fed's Bowman (15:50 UTC) and Daly (17:00 UTC) could materially shift this read during NY hours
14:00 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since London open · RSI 44 · price 1.10503
LH/LL sequence; PPI spike rejected under London high.
Early NY: the spike on the soft headline US PPI print retraced most of the London leg to 1.1069, stalled under the 1.1073 London high and fully reversed. Price is back below the ema20 (1.1054) and ema50 (1.1057), with lower highs since London open keeping the 1.1044 session low in view. ATR(14) has expanded to 6.3 pips from 4.8.
Support: 1.1044, 1.1000
Resistance: 1.10541, 1.10693, 1.10726
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1044 session low extends the lower-low sequence, with the 1.1000 round number the next marked level
Reclaim of the ema20 at 1.1054 and a close above the 1.1069 ppi high breaks the lower-highs trendline and puts the 1.1073 London high back in play
Fed's Bowman at 15:50 UTC and Daly at 17:00 UTC could materially shift this read
London leg lower reversed by false break of 1.1045; PPI spike capped below London high.
London faded from the 1.1073 session high to a 1.1044 session low, a false break of yesterday's 1.1045 low. The slightly soft US PPI headline then spiked price to a 1.1069 PPI high, which was rejected. Price sits near 1.1060, about 56% back up the London leg fib, under the 1.1063 Asian high and above ema20 and ema50, with ATR(14) expanding to 6 pips.
Support: 1.10568, 1.10546, 1.1044
Resistance: 1.10634, 1.10693, 1.10726
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1069 PPI high reopens the 1.1073 session high
Slip back below ema50 (1.1057) and ema20 (1.1055) puts the 1.1044 session low back in play
Acceptance below the 1.1044 session low turns the false break into a fresh lower low
Fed's Bowman (15:50 UTC) and Daly (17:00 UTC) could materially shift this read during NY hours
13:31 UTC
Intraday downtrend, bouncing on soft headline PPI · RSI 52 · price 1.10586
Lower highs from London high 1.1073 into a 1.1044 session low; PPI bar retracing toward the fib 50%.
London open broke the Asian range high but stalled at the 1.1073 London high and bled lower in a lower-high sequence, sweeping yesterday's 1.1045 low to a 1.1044 session low just before NY. The softer headline US PPI spiked the pair to 1.1065 (ppi spike) but it is already fading toward the fib 50% near 1.1058. RSI(14) sits at 52.1 and ATR(14) at 5.3 pips, with the last close above the ema20 at 1.1054 and just under the ema50 at 1.10567.
Support: 1.1054, 1.1044
Resistance: 1.10652, 1.10726
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 1.1065 ppi spike reopens the 1.1073 London high and challenges the lower-high sequence
A slip back below the ema20 at 1.1054 leaves the PPI bounce as a fade toward the 1.1044 session low
A break of the 1.1044 session low extends the intraday downtrend below yesterday's low
Fed's Bowman (15:50 UTC) and Daly (17:00 UTC) could reprice the USD read after PPI
13:16 UTC
Downtrend, momentum soft but not stretched · RSI 44 · price 1.10514
Lower highs from London open high; session low swept then reclaimed.
London rejected the 1.1073 london high and printed a chain of lower highs. The slide extended after the soft EZ employment miss to a 1.1044 session low, just under Thursday's 1.1045 low, which was swept and reclaimed into the London-NY transition. Price sits below both falling EMAs (ema20 1.1054, ema50 1.1057), with RSI(14) at 43.5 and ATR at 5.1 pips.
Support: 1.1044, 1.1000
Resistance: 1.10555, 1.10567, 1.10726
What it said to watch
US PPI in 14 min could materially shift this read; core is the swing factor
M15 close below the 1.1044 session low confirms a lower-low and puts the 1.1000 round number in view
Close above the 1.1056 lower high and the ema50 at 1.1057 breaks the lower-high trendline
Fed's Bowman at 15:50 UTC is the next event risk after the PPI print
13:01 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since London open · RSI 42 · price 1.10499
London reversal from 1.1073; Asian range broken both ways.
London faded the early push above the Asian high to 1.1073 and printed lower highs through the morning. It broke the Asian low after the soft EZ employment print, and at 12:45 UTC it swept yesterday's 1.1045 low to a session low of 1.1044 before closing back near 1.1050. Price sits below a falling ema20 (1.1054) and ema50 (1.1057), RSI(14) is at 41.5 and ATR is compressed at 5 pips into US PPI.
Support: 1.1044, 1.1000
Resistance: 1.10541, 1.1057, 1.10634
What it said to watch
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (29 min) could materially shift this read; a hot core print puts the 1.1000 round number in play
M15 close below the 1.1044 session low confirms a fresh lower-low
Recovery above the ema50 at 1.1057 and the London lower-highs trendline weakens the downtrend read
Asian high at 1.1063 is the next cap above; a 50% retrace of the London drop sits near 1.1058
12:47 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 43 · price 1.10475
Lower highs since London open into flat 1.1046 support.
London opened with a rejection at the 1.1073 london high. A lower-high chain along the descending trendline is now pressing the 1.1046 session low, which matches yesterday's NY low, with price below an ema20 (1.10545) that has crossed under ema50 (1.10572). EZ data at 10:00 UTC drew little reaction, and USD strength on Fed hike repricing keeps the pair heavy into US PPI.
Support: 1.10459, 1.1000
Resistance: 1.10545, 1.10634, 1.10726
What it said to watch
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (core YoY f/c 5%) could materially shift this read; ATR is compressed at 4.8 pips going into it
M15 close below the 1.1046 session low extends the lower-low chain and puts the 1.1000 psych level in view
M15 close above the ema20 at 1.10545 and the descending trendline breaks the lower-high sequence; the asian high at 1.1063 is next overhead
Only a reclaim of the 1.1073 london high negates the intraday downtrend read
Lower highs since London open, tight 1.1046–1.1055 box.
London rejected the 1.1073 london high at the open and stepped down through lower highs to a 1.1046 london low after the 10:00 UTC EZ employment miss, matching yesterday's NY low near 1.1045. The 12:15 UTC retest held at 1.1047, but the bounce stalled under the 38.2% of the london selloff, leaving price boxed beneath a falling ema20 (1.1055) with RSI(14) at 42 and ATR(14) at 4.9 pips as EUR sits heavy near 19-month lows into US PPI.
Support: 1.10459, 1.1000
Resistance: 1.10548, 1.10593, 1.10726
What it said to watch
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (core YoY f/c 5%) in under an hour could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 1.1046 london low breaks the twice-tested floor and brings the 1.10 psych level into view
Recovery above the ema20 and the 1.1059 lower high (50% of the london selloff) would break the lower-high sequence
Only a reclaim of the 1.1073 london high negates the intraday downtrend read
12:16 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since London open · RSI 41 · price 1.10493
London false break above Asian high, then lower highs back to prior low.
London pushed through the Asian high at 1.1063 to a session high of 1.1073 and was rejected. A lower-highs sequence has since dragged price back to 1.1046, just above yesterday's prior low at 1.1045, with price below a falling ema20 (1.1055) and the ema50 and RSI(14) at 41 as USD holds firm into PPI.
Support: 1.10454, 1.1000
Resistance: 1.10552, 1.10634, 1.10726
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1045 prior low extends the lower-low sequence, with the 1.1000 psych level next
M15 close above the ema20 at 1.1055 and the lower-highs trendline breaks the intraday down-sequence, exposing the 1.1063 Asian high
Reclaim of the 1.1073 session high would negate the London rejection
US PPI at 13:30 UTC in ~75 min could materially shift this read; ATR at 4.9 pips is likely to expand on the release
Lower highs since London open; bounce off 1.1046 capped below ema20.
London open swept the Asian high at 1.1063 to a London high of 1.1073 and was rejected. Price then printed lower highs and broke the Asian range low to 1.1046 (london low), just above yesterday's prior NY low at 1.1045, with USD firm on hawkish Fed repricing. The bounce to 1.1053 sits below the ema20 (1.1056) and ema50, with RSI 44.7 and ATR 4.9 pips ahead of US PPI.
Support: 1.10459, 1.10454
Resistance: 1.10558, 1.10634, 1.10726
What it said to watch
US Oct PPI at 13:30 UTC (core YoY f/c 5%) could materially shift this read; Bowman follows at 15:50 UTC
M15 close above the ema20 at 1.1056 and the asian high at 1.1063 breaks the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 1.1046 london low and 1.1045 prior NY low confirms a lower low beneath both
A retest of the london high at 1.1073 would return price to the session top
11:46 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since London open · RSI 42 · price 1.10515
False break above Asian high, now pressing the prior low.
London's push through the Asian high to a London high of 1.1073 failed. Price has carved lower highs since, and after the soft EZ employment print it tagged a London low of 1.1046, just above yesterday's prior low of 1.1045. Late London trades below the ema20 at 1.1056, which lines up with the 38.2% of the London drop; RSI sits at 42.4 with ATR near 5 pips.
Support: 1.10459, 1.10454
Resistance: 1.10561, 1.10634, 1.10726
What it said to watch
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (core YoY f/c 5%) could materially shift this read
An M15 close below the 1.1045 prior low and London low confirms a lower-low
Reclaiming the ema20 at 1.1056 and the lower-highs line puts the asian high at 1.1063 back in play
Only a move back above the london high at 1.1073 would cancel the false-break read
11:31 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since London open · RSI 46 · price 1.1054
London fade from 1.1073 swept the Asian low and bounced; price sits under both EMAs.
The London fade from the 1.1073 london high printed lower highs and ended in a sweep of the Asian low to a 1.1046 session low, matching yesterday's NY low at 1.1045, before snapping back to 1.1054. Late in the London session, price sits just under the ema20 at 1.1057 and the lower-high trendline, with RSI(14) recovering from 37.6 to 45.7 and ATR steady near 5 pips ahead of US PPI.
Support: 1.10459
Resistance: 1.10565, 1.10646, 1.10726
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.1046 session low voids the sweep and confirms a lower-low
Close above the ema20 at 1.1057 and the lower-high trendline turns the London fade into a range; 1.1065 lower high is the next cap
Fib 50-61.8% of the London fade (1.1059-1.1062) is the area to watch for rejection or break
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (core y/y f/c 5%) in under 2h could materially shift this read
11:16 UTC
Intraday downtrend, below both EMAs · RSI 40 · price 1.10511
Lower highs since London high; retesting day low.
London briefly broke the asian high at 1.1063 and was rejected at the 1.1073 london high. The session has since printed lower highs and is now retesting yesterday's 1.1046 day low, with RSI(14) at 40, ATR(14) at 5.1 pips and both EMAs turning lower, as USD holds firm into US PPI.
Support: 1.10455, 1.1000
Resistance: 1.10568, 1.10634, 1.10726
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1046 day low opens the path toward the 1.1000 round number
Reclaim of ema20 (1.1057) and the asian high at 1.1063 would break the London lower-high sequence; the 0.5 level of the London leg sits near 1.1059
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (core f/c 0.3% m/m, 5% y/y), then Fed's Bowman at 15:50 UTC, could materially shift this read
London lower highs and lower lows from session high, now testing NY low.
London's poke above the Asia high to a 1.1073 london high failed, and a run of lower highs followed. The soft EZ employment print at 10:00 UTC added to the slide back through the Asia low into a retest of yesterday's NY low at 1.1045. Price sits below both EMAs with RSI(14) at 37.6 and ATR widening to 5.2 pips, in line with the firm-USD tone into PPI.
Support: 1.10474, 1.10454
Resistance: 1.10574, 1.10634, 1.10726
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1045 ny low extends the lower-low sequence
Reclaim of the 1.1047 asia low and then the ema20 at 1.1057 would break the lower-highs line
Close back above the 1.1063 asia high neutralises the London false break
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (~2.5h) could materially shift this read
10:46 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since London open · RSI 42 · price 1.10495
London swept the Asian range high and reversed; price back at the Asian low.
London open swept the Asian high at 1.1063 to a 1.1073 session high and was rejected. Price has printed lower highs since and now sits below both EMAs, pressing the Asian low near 1.1047, with RSI(14) at 41.5 and ATR at 5.1 pips. Soft Eurozone employment at 10:00 UTC added little, and USD strength ahead of PPI remains the driver.
Support: 1.10474, 1.10454
Resistance: 1.10582, 1.10634, 1.10726
What it said to watch
M15 close below the asian low 1.1047 and yesterday's prior low 1.1045 extends the lower-high sequence into fresh lows
Close back above the ema20 at 1.1058 and the lower-highs trendline neutralises the London fade, with the asian high at 1.1063 next
Reclaiming the 1.1073 session high would void the sweep-and-rejection read
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (core YoY f/c 5%) could materially shift this read, with Bowman at 15:50 UTC to follow
10:31 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since London open · RSI 42 · price 1.10533
Failed break above Asian high, rotating back toward Asian range lows.
London's spike above the Asian range high to 1.10726 (london high) failed, and price has capped under a lower-high trendline since, now testing the 1.10525 session low below both EMAs with RSI(14) at 42. The soft eurozone employment print at 10:00 UTC added pressure. The 1.10474 Asian low and yesterday's 1.10454 prior low sit just beneath, with ATR(14) at 5.2 pips and expanding.
Support: 1.10525, 1.10474, 1.10454
Resistance: 1.10588, 1.10646, 1.10726
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.10474 asian low exposes the 1.10454 prior low and the 1.1047-1.1050 area
Reclaim of ema20 at 1.10588 and the 1.10646 lower high breaks the London lower-high sequence
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (core YoY f/c 5%) could materially shift this read, with Bowman following at 15:50 UTC
10:16 UTC
Intraday down-drift, lower highs since London open · RSI 44 · price 1.10553
Failed London push above Asian high; lower-high sequence, price back inside Asian range.
London open pushed above the Asian high to a 1.1073 london high and was rejected. Lower highs since have pulled price back inside the Asian range to 1.1055, under the ema20 (1.10594) and ema50, sitting on the 61.8% of the rise from the 1.1045 prior low, with the 1.1052 london low just beneath. RSI 43.7, ATR 5.3 pips and expanding, with EUR heavy on Fed repricing.
Support: 1.1052, 1.10474, 1.10454
Resistance: 1.10594, 1.10634, 1.10726
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1052 london low exposes the 1.1047 asian low and the 1.1045 prior low
Recovery above the ema20 at 1.10594 and the 1.1063 asian high negates the lower-high sequence
EZ Q3 GDP (10:00 UTC) has not yet produced a range expansion; the actual print is not yet registered
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (core YoY f/c 5%) could materially shift this read
10:01 UTC
Sideways after yesterday's drop, slipping lower in London · RSI 48 · price 1.10576
London false break above the Asian range, lower highs since.
London's push above the Asian range top was rejected at the 1.1073 london high, a false break. Lower highs at 1.1068 and 1.1063 followed, and price at 1.1058 sits under the flat ema20/ema50 cluster near 1.1060, above the 1.1052 london low and the 1.1045 prior low. RSI 48 is neutral and ATR 5.3 pips has expanded from 3.5 into the EZ GDP release, with the USD still firm on Fed repricing.
Support: 1.1052, 1.10454
Resistance: 1.10599, 1.10681, 1.10726
What it said to watch
EZ Q3 GDP and employment at 10:00 UTC, the current bar, could break either side of the 1.1052–1.1068 band
M15 close below the 1.1052 london low exposes the 1.1045 prior low, yesterday's NY trough
M15 close back above the 1.1068 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence and reopens the 1.1073 london high
US October PPI at 13:30 UTC is the bigger risk event for the NY session
09:46 UTC
Heavy below flat EMAs, lower highs since 06:45 UTC · RSI 43 · price 1.10536
Lower highs from 1.1073 inside the 1.1045–1.1073 band left after yesterday's NY selloff.
No narrative produced.
Support: 1.10536, 1.10474, 1.10454
Resistance: 1.10603, 1.10681, 1.10726
09:31 UTC
Sideways after London open rejection, lower highs forming · RSI 49 · price 1.10596
Compression between 1.1056 and 1.1068 inside the upper half of the Asian range.
London open spiked through the Asian range high to a 1.1073 session high and was rejected. Price has since printed lower highs at 1.1068 and 1.1065 against a 1.1056 London low, sitting just below a flat EMA20/EMA50 near 1.1061 with RSI(14) at 49.4. The 3.7% EU-norm CPI miss drew little reaction, while ATR(14) has expanded from 3.5 to 5.2 pips ahead of Eurozone GDP.
Support: 1.10555, 1.10474, 1.10454
Resistance: 1.10681, 1.10726
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1056 london low exposes the 1.1047 asian low and the 1.1045 prior low from yesterday's NY session
M15 close above the 1.1068 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence and reopens the 1.1073 session high
Eurozone Q3 GDP and employment at 10:00 UTC (29 min) could resolve the compression
US October PPI at 13:30 UTC, first hour of NY, carries the larger event risk for this read
09:16 UTC
Sideways base after the prior NY sell-off · RSI 52 · price 1.10628
London compression: lower highs from 1.1073 against higher lows from 1.1054.
The pre-London spike to the 1.1073 session high was rejected. London has since printed lower highs near the 1.1068 london high against higher lows from 1.1054, coiling around the flat ema cluster at 1.1061 after yesterday's NY sell-off to the 1.1045 ny low. Mixed EZ inflation prints barely moved price; RSI(14) is neutral at 52 while ATR(14) has expanded to 5.3 pips from 3.5.
Support: 1.10606, 1.10555, 1.10454
Resistance: 1.10681, 1.10726
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1068 london high breaks the lower-high sequence and exposes the 1.1073 session high
Failure to hold the 1.1056 london low opens the 1.1045 ny low
Eurozone Q3 GDP and employment at 10:00 UTC (44 min) could resolve the compression
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (core YoY f/c 5%) is the main risk for this read
London false break above Asian range, lower highs since.
London open pushed above the 1.1063 Asian high to a 1.10726 London high, close to the 50% retrace of Thursday's 1.1098–1.1045 selloff fib, then rejected. A 1.10681 lower high followed, and price now sits just under the flat EMA20/EMA50 at 1.10605 with RSI(14) at 48.3. ATR has expanded from 3.5 to 5.2 pips into the session, with USD firm on Fed 50bp talk.
Support: 1.10555, 1.10454
Resistance: 1.10681, 1.10726
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.10555 session low exposes the 1.10454 thursday low
M15 close above the 1.10681 lower high breaks the descending sequence and reopens the 1.10726 london high
Eurozone Q3 GDP and employment at 10:00 UTC (~1h) could shift the session range
US PPI at 13:30 UTC (core YoY f/c 5%) is the main risk for the NY session
08:46 UTC
Flat after London rejection, lower high in place · RSI 47 · price 1.10578
London high 1.1073 rejected, lower high at 1.1068, price back at the 61.8% retrace of the Asia-London leg.
London open pushed above the Asian range to a 1.1073 session high but was rejected. The rebound around the in-line HICP stalled at a lower high near 1.1068, leaving price below a flat ema20/ema50 pair and sitting on the 61.8% of the Asia-London fib at the london low near 1.1057. ATR has expanded from 3.5 to 5.1 pips as London traded through a soft national CPI and the USD stayed firm into PPI.
Support: 1.10567, 1.1054, 1.10474
Resistance: 1.10607, 1.10681, 1.10726
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1057 london low exposes the 1.1054 asia pivot and the 1.1047 asia low
Recovery above the ema20 at 1.1061, then a close through the 1.1068 lower high, negates the rejection read and reopens the 1.1073 london high
EZ Q3 GDP and Employment at 10:00 UTC (in ~74 min) could break the current consolidation
US PPI at 13:30 UTC is the higher-impact risk for NY session range extension
Higher-low chain off 1.10454; early-Europe high 1.10726 capping.
Price has left the Asian range: the early-Europe spike to the europe high at 1.10726 was rejected, and the London-open dip to 1.10567, the london low, was bid back above flat EMAs (ema20 1.1061) despite in-line HICP. Higher lows since the 1.10454 swing low hold along the rising trendline, RSI(14) 58.9 is neutral and ATR has expanded to 4.8 pips from 3.5.
Support: 1.1061, 1.10567, 1.10454
Resistance: 1.10726, 1.1100
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.10726 europe high extends the higher-high sequence toward the 1.1100 round number
Close back below the 1.1061 ema20 and the london low at 1.10567 breaks the rising trendline and the higher-low chain
Loss of the 1.10454 swing low resumes the prior-NY decline
EZ Q3 GDP and Employment at 10:00 UTC (in ~90 min) could reshape the session range
US PPI at 13:30 UTC is the dominant scheduled risk for NY session
08:16 UTC
Short-term recovery off lows, higher lows since Asia · RSI 57 · price 1.10649
Higher lows from 1.10454; London open spike rejected at 1.10726, pullback held.
After Thursday's NY-session slide to a 1.10454 swing low on Fed-hike-driven USD demand, price built higher lows through Asia, and London open spiked to 1.10726 before rejection. The pullback held at the 1.10567 london low, near the 61.8% fib rebound level, and price is back above the ema20/ema50 cluster near 1.1060. RSI(14) is 56.8 and ATR has expanded to 4.8 pips.
Support: 1.10605, 1.10567, 1.10454
Resistance: 1.10726, 1.10982
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.10726 london high clears the London rejection, with the 1.10982 ny high as the next prior pivot
Break below the 1.10567 london low and the higher lows trendline puts the 1.10454 swing low back in play
Euro-area GDP at 10:00 UTC (f/c 0.4% QoQ) and US PPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
08:01 UTC
Flat intraday after prior-day drop, sellers capping London open · RSI 48 · price 1.10573
Failed break above Asian range high, price back inside the range.
London open spiked through the Asian high at 1.1063 to a London high of 1.1073. Supply capped it, and price is back below EMA20/EMA50 near 1.1060, sitting on the 61.8% retrace of the Asia–London leg around 1.1057. RSI(14) is neutral at 48.4 and ATR is 4.6 pips, with EUR heavy at 18-month lows on Fed-hike pricing after yesterday's NY slide to the 1.1045 prior low.
Support: 1.1054, 1.10474, 1.10454
Resistance: 1.1060, 1.10634, 1.10726
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1054 swing low exposes the Asian low at 1.1047 and the prior low at 1.1045
M15 close back above the ema20 at 1.1060 and the Asian high at 1.1063 negates the false break; the London high at 1.1073 is next
Euro-area HICP prints in the current bar; the GDP and Employment release at 10:00 UTC could shift the range read
US PPI at 13:30 UTC is the main volatility risk for the NY session
07:46 UTC
Flat intraday, recovering from yesterday's NY low · RSI 55 · price 1.10611
Higher lows through Asia; London open false break above Asian range high.
London open pushed through the Asian high at 1.1063 to a london high of 1.1073, then faded back inside the range. Price now sits on the 61.8% of the London leg, just above the flat 1.1060 ema cluster, with RSI 54.6 and ATR at 4.6 pips. Rising lows from the 1.1047 Asian low hold above yesterday's day low at 1.1045 as USD stays firm on Fed-hike bets.
Support: 1.10603, 1.1054, 1.10454
Resistance: 1.10634, 1.10726, 1.10982
What it said to watch
Euro-area HICP at 08:00 UTC (14 min) could break the Asian range either way
M15 close back above 1.1073 london high reopens yesterday's prior high at 1.1098
Loss of the 1.1060 ema cluster and the rising lows trendline exposes the 1.1054 london low
Break of the 1.1045 day low resumes the four-day slide toward 1.1000
Euro-area GDP at 10:00 UTC and US PPI at 13:30 UTC are the larger session risks
07:31 UTC
Pullback stalled after Thursday's NY selloff, now flat · RSI 55 · price 1.10618
Asian range 1.1047–1.1063; London open false break above it.
London open pushed through the 1.1063 Asian high to a 1.1073 London high, close to the 50% retracement of Thursday's NY selloff, but the spike was rejected and price fell back into the range around Schnabel's remarks. Price now sits just above the flat ema20/50 at 1.1060, with ATR(14) up to 4.6 pips from 3.6. USD stays firm after the hot CPI and keeps the pair near 18-month lows.
Support: 1.1060, 1.10474, 1.10454
Resistance: 1.10634, 1.10726
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 1.1063 asian high and the 1.1073 london high would negate the false break.
Loss of the 1.1060 ema20/50 and the rising lows line near 1.1054 would put the 1.1047 asia low and the 1.1045 thu low back in focus.
National CPI/HICP at 07:45 and 08:00 UTC, then Eurozone Q3 GDP at 10:00 UTC, could shift this read.
US PPI at 13:30 UTC is the main volatility risk for the NY session.
07:16 UTC
Sideways after Thursday's sell-off, early London bounce stalling · RSI 60 · price 1.10632
Asian range 1.1047–1.1063 broken higher at London open, push rejected at 1.1073 and back testing the range top.
The first hour of London pushed through the Asian high at 1.1063 to a london high of 1.1073, near the 50% fib of Thursday's NY sell-off, and was rejected back to the range top. Price still sits above the ema50 at 1.1060, RSI(14) at 60 and ATR widening to 4.7 pips. The dollar tone stays firm after the hot US CPI.
Support: 1.10602, 1.1054, 1.10454
Resistance: 1.10634, 1.10726, 1.10982
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the asian high at 1.1063 and the ema50 at 1.1060 turns the London push into a false break inside the Asian range
Close above the 1.1073 london high clears the 50% fib and opens the 1.1098 swing high
Loss of the 1.1054 pullback low exposes Thursday's prior low at 1.1045
EZ national CPI at 07:45 UTC and HICP at 08:00 UTC, then EZ Q3 GDP at 10:00 UTC, could shift this read
US PPI at 13:30 UTC is the main volatility risk for the NY session
07:01 UTC
Recovery off Thursday lows, momentum building · RSI 64 · price 1.10718
Asian range break higher at London open, higher lows since 1.1047.
London open broke the 1.1047–1.1063 Asian range high, extending to 1.1072. That level is the 50% retrace of Thursday's NY sell-off from the 1.1098 swing high, with the 1.1075 prior pivot just overhead. The Asian low held above Thursday's 1.1045 trough in a shallow double bottom, and higher lows have held since. RSI(14) is at 64.3, ATR(14) is expanding to 4.5 pips, and price sits above both EMAs, with the ema50 at 1.1060 just below the Asian high. The bounce is a mild Friday recovery after the USD-led slide.
Support: 1.10634, 1.1060, 1.10474
Resistance: 1.10754, 1.10982
What it said to watch
Schnabel at 07:10 UTC, then national CPI and HICP at 07:45–08:00 UTC, could jolt this break
M15 close back below the 1.1063 asian high, and the ema50 at 1.1060, turns the break into a false break
Close above the 1.1075 prior pivot opens the 1.1098 swing high
Loss of the higher-low trendline exposes the 1.1047 asian low
EZ Q3 GDP at 10:00 UTC and US PPI at 13:30 UTC are the larger session risks
Tight Asian range 1.1054–1.1063 above the 1.1045 prior low.
The prior NY session's slide from 1.1098 to a 1.1045 prior low, with the USD bid on hawkish Fed bets, has stalled into a 1.1054–1.1063 Asian range. Price sits between a flattening EMA20 (1.10583) and EMA50 (1.10597), RSI 52.5 is neutral and ATR is compressed at 4 pips ahead of the London open.
Support: 1.1054, 1.10474, 1.10454
Resistance: 1.10634, 1.10678
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1063 Asian high exposes the 1.1068 swing high, near the 38.2% retrace of the prior-day drop
Loss of the 1.1054 range low puts the 1.1047 Asian low and the 1.1045 prior low back in focus
ECB's Elderson (06:50) and Schnabel (07:10 GMT), then EZ CPI/HICP prints at 07:45–08:00 GMT, could break the compression
US PPI at 13:30 UTC is the main event risk for a range expansion later in the day
06:31 UTC
Intraday downtrend, stalled in a tight range · RSI 48 · price 1.10567
Asian range 1.1056–1.1063 below both EMAs after NY low at 1.1045.
Yesterday's slide from the 1.1102 London high to the 1.1045 swing low came on hawkish Fed bets and a firm dollar. Asia has since held a 1.1056–1.1063 range, capped near the 23.6% fib, with price below ema20 (1.1058) and ema50 (1.1060). RSI(14) is flat at 48 and ATR at 3.6 pips points to compression into the European open.
Support: 1.10555, 1.10454
Resistance: 1.10597, 1.10634, 1.10678
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1055 range low exposes the 1.1045 swing low
Close back above ema50 at 1.1060 and the 1.1063 asian high opens the 1.1068 prior high
ECB Elderson (06:50 GMT), Schnabel (07:10 GMT) and the EU CPI prints from 07:45 GMT could break the Asian range
US PPI at 13:30 UTC is the larger event risk for this read
Tight Asian range 1.1056–1.1063 after rebound from 1.1047 low.
Yesterday's NY selloff from 1.1098 bottomed at the 1.1045 day low. Asia rebounded from the 1.1047 Asian low to the 1.1063 Asian high and has since compressed into a 1.1056–1.1063 box, with price just under a flat ema20 and ema50. ATR at 3.5 pips and RSI near 49 point to a coiled market ahead of London, with the backdrop still USD-firm after the hot US CPI.
Support: 1.10555, 1.10474, 1.10454
Resistance: 1.10598, 1.10634, 1.10678
What it said to watch
Close below the 1.1056 range low exposes the 1.1047 asian low and 1.1045 day low
Close above the ema50 and the 1.1063 asian high opens the 1.1068 old swing, the post-NY bounce high
ECB Elderson and Schnabel speak within the hour; national CPI prints at 07:45 and 08:00 UTC could break the compression
EZ Q3 GDP at 10:00 UTC and US PPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Tight Asian range 1.1055–1.1063 above the NY swing low, rising Asia lows.
Thursday's NY sell-off from 1.1098 on hawkish Fed talk and a firm DXY ran to a 1.1045 swing low. Since then the Asia low at 1.1047 has held with higher lows, and price is boxed in a 1.1055–1.1063 range just under a flat ema50. ATR(14) has compressed to 3.5 pips, RSI(14) is neutral at 50.9, and price is only about a quarter of the way back up the NY drop with London open an hour away.
Support: 1.10555, 1.10474, 1.10454
Resistance: 1.10599, 1.10634, 1.10678
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1063 Asia high clears the ema50 and puts the 1.1068 NY bounce high in play
Loss of the 1.1055 range low breaks the Asia higher-lows trendline and exposes the 1.1047 Asia low and 1.1045 swing low
ECB Sleijpen, Elderson and Schnabel plus national CPIs at 07:45–08:00 UTC could break the compression
US PPI at 13:30 UTC is the larger risk to this read
05:46 UTC
Flat after NY sell-off, below ema20/ema50 · RSI 47 · price 1.1057
Tight late-Asia range 1.1055–1.1063 under flat ema50.
The NY session slid from 1.1098 to a 1.1045 ny low as hawkish Fed talk lifted DXY above 103.00. The Asian rebound from the 1.1047 asia low stalled at 1.1063, just under the 38.2% fib of that drop. Price has since compressed in a 1.1055–1.1063 box ahead of London open, below ema20 (1.1058) and the ema50 at 1.1060, with RSI(14) neutral at 47 and ATR at 3.5 pips.
Support: 1.1055, 1.1047, 1.1045
Resistance: 1.1060, 1.1063, 1.1066
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1055 range floor exposes the 1.1047 asia low and 1.1045 ny low
Close above the 1.1063 asia high and ema50 brings the 38.2% fib at 1.1066 into play
ECB Sleijpen, Elderson and Schnabel (06:15–07:10 UTC), then national CPIs at 07:45/08:00 UTC, could break the Asian range
EZ Q3 GDP at 10:00 UTC and US PPI at 13:30 UTC are the larger volatility risks for this read
NY sold off from the 1.1098 NY high to a 1.1045 NY low as DXY pressed 18-month highs. Asia printed a marginal higher low at 1.1047 (asian low) and bounced to 1.1063 (asian high), just shy of the 38.2% retrace of the NY selloff. Price is now coiled in a 1.1056–1.1063 range low/high band between EMA20 (1.10585) and EMA50 (1.1060), with RSI(14) at 52.4 and ATR(14) compressed at 3.5 pips ahead of London open.
Support: 1.1056, 1.1047, 1.1045
Resistance: 1.1063, 1.1068, 1.1098
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1063 asian high clears the Asian range top and exposes the 1.1068 ny swing hi
Loss of the 1.1056 range low puts the 1.1047 asian low and 1.1045 ny low back in play; a break below confirms a lower-low
ECB Sleijpen, Elderson and Schnabel speak 06:15–07:10 UTC, followed by national CPI at 07:45/08:00 UTC, all into London open
Eurozone Q3 GDP at 10:00 UTC and US PPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
05:16 UTC
Flat after NY selloff, Asia basing · RSI 51 · price 1.10589
Tight Asian range 1.1056–1.1063 above a higher low.
Late Asia session is holding a 1.1056–1.1063 range after a bounce from the 1.1047 asian low. That low sits just above yesterday's 1.1045 ny low, which capped the post-jobless-claims slide from 1.1096 as a hot-CPI USD bid weighed on EUR. Price sits between a flat EMA20 (1.10584) and the ema50 (1.10601), with RSI 51 and ATR 3.6 pips: no setup in play into London.
Support: 1.1056, 1.10474, 1.10454
Resistance: 1.10601, 1.10634, 1.10678
What it said to watch
M15 close above the ema50 and the 1.1063 asian high opens the path to the 1.1068 ny bounce high
Failure to hold the 1.1056 range low and the higher-lows line exposes the 1.1047 asian low and the 1.1045 ny low
ECB's Schnabel (07:10 UTC) and national CPI prints at 07:45/08:00 UTC land around the London open
Eurozone Q3 GDP at 10:00 UTC and US PPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Asian range 1.1047–1.1063 with higher lows, price pressing range top.
The NY sell-off from 1.1096 to the 1.1045 day low came on firm USD after the hot CPI repricing, and Asia has since built a double bottom at 1.1045/1.1047. Price sits just under the 1.1063 asian high, holding above the flat ema50 and a 1.1056 swing low, with ATR at 3.6 pips showing compressed ranges ahead of the London open.
Support: 1.10601, 1.1056, 1.10454
Resistance: 1.10634, 1.10672
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1063 asian high opens the fib 38.2 at 1.1067 (also the NY bounce high)
Loss of the 1.1056 swing low and ema50 breaks the higher-low trendline and exposes the 1.1045 day low
ECB's Schnabel (07:10 UTC), EZ CPI prints and Eurozone Q3 GDP (10:00 UTC) could expand the range
US PPI at 13:30 UTC is the larger volatility event for today's read
Tight Asian range 1.10474–1.10634, higher lows off the Asian low.
Yesterday's NY session sell-off from 1.1098 bottomed at 1.10454, with hawkish Fed tone keeping USD bid. Late Asia is holding a 16-pip range between the 1.10474 asian low and the 1.10634 asian high, and price sits between the ema20 (1.10581) and the ema50 (1.10601). Price is holding above the 50% of the Asian bounce fib, on a rising asian hl line, with RSI(14) neutral at 51 and ATR(14) compressed at 3.5 pips.
Support: 1.10581, 1.1056, 1.10474
Resistance: 1.10601, 1.10634, 1.10678
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 1.10634 asian high breaks the Asian range and exposes the 1.10678 ny bounce high
A break of the asian hl line and the 1.1056 swing low reopens the 1.10474 asian low and the 1.10454 session low
London open with ECB's Sleijpen/Schnabel and EZ inflation (07:45–08:00 UTC) could end the ATR compression
US PPI at 13:30 UTC is the day's main catalyst and could reset this read
04:31 UTC
Range after NY sell-off, momentum neutral · RSI 49 · price 1.10585
Asian range 1.1047–1.1063 inside a lower-high sequence below 1.1068.
Asia session has built a 1.1047–1.1063 range after yesterday's NY sell-off from 1.1098 to the 1.1045 NY low. The Asian high has seen rejection three times, and price sits just under both EMAs at the 23.6% retrace of that sell-off. RSI 49 is neutral and ATR 3.6 pips is compressed, while firm USD after the hot CPI and hawkish Fed talk keeps the pair pinned near its lows.
Support: 1.1056, 1.10474, 1.10454
Resistance: 1.10634, 1.10678
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1063 asian high breaks the Asia range top, with the 1.1068 lower high next
Loss of the 1.1056 range low exposes the 1.1047 asian low and the 1.1045 ny low
ECB's Sleijpen and Schnabel plus EU CPI in the next 2–3.5h could break the Asian range
US PPI at 13:30 UTC is the main catalyst for a test of the ny low
04:16 UTC
Flat after NY sell-off, Asian bounce stalling · RSI 50 · price 1.10574
Asian range 1.1047–1.1063, three rejections at the range top.
The NY session slide from 1.1098 to the 1.1045 NY low came on broad USD strength as hawkish Fed talk (Williams, 50bp chatter) kept the dollar bid. Asia has bounced from the 1.1047 Asia low, but supply has capped the Asia high at 1.1063 three times. Price is back below the ema50 at 1.1060 and the ema20, sitting on the 38.2% retrace of the Asian bounce with RSI(14) neutral at 50.
Support: 1.10563, 1.10474, 1.10454
Resistance: 1.10602, 1.10634
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1056 swing low exposes the 1.1047 Asia low and the 1.1045 NY low
M15 close above the 1.1063 Asia high breaks the cap and the range read
ECB Sleijpen/Elderson/Schnabel (06:15–07:10 GMT) into London open could set the session range
EZ GDP at 10:00 GMT and US PPI at 13:30 UTC carry the larger event risk for this structure
Asia higher lows off 1.1045, pressing the Asian high.
Thursday's NY sell-off from 1.1098 to 1.10454 came on USD strength around Fed 50bp chatter. The Asia session then printed a higher low at the 1.10474 asian low and is now pressing the 1.10634 asian high, back above a flat ema50 with RSI(14) at 59.8. ATR(14) is compressed at 3.6 pips. The prior high at 1.10678 caps the bounce, and the 1.10563 swing low and the rising Asia trendline sit beneath.
Support: 1.10603, 1.10563, 1.10474
Resistance: 1.10634, 1.10678
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.10634 asian high exposes the 1.10678 prior high, near the 38.2% of the NY sell-off
Loss of the 1.10563 swing low and the Asia trendline returns focus to the 1.10474 asian low
Hold back below the ema50 at 1.10603 would mark rejection at the asian high
ECB Sleijpen 06:15 and Schnabel 07:10 GMT, then EZ Q3 GDP at 10:00 GMT, could shift this read
US PPI at 13:30 UTC is the larger volatility risk for the pair
03:46 UTC
Flat after NY sell-off, compressing · RSI 55 · price 1.10594
Tight Asian range with rising lows, capped at 1.1063.
The post-claims bounce to 1.1098 faded in NY, and the USD bid took the pair down to a 1.1045 low. Late in the Asia session, price is pinned between the ema20 at 1.1058 and the ema50 at 1.1060, with ATR(14) compressed at 3.6 pips and the bounce retracing only about a third of the NY sell-off. The 1.1056 higher low keeps the Asian rising lows intact, while the 1.1063 Asian high caps.
Support: 1.10576, 1.10563, 1.10474
Resistance: 1.10602, 1.10634
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1063 asian high clears the ema50 and breaks the Asia range
Loss of the 1.1056 higher low breaks the asian rising lows and exposes the 1.1047 asian low
ECB Sleijpen/Schnabel from 06:15 GMT and EZ Q3 GDP at 10:00 GMT could break the compression
US PPI at 13:30 UTC is the larger event risk for the NY sell-off fib structure
Double bottom at 1.1045–1.1047, higher low at 1.1056, capped at Asian high.
Thursday's NY sell-off ran from 1.1098 to a 1.1045 swing low. Williams' hawkish remarks kept USD bid into Asia, and the 1.1047 retest held to form a double bottom. Price has since put in a higher low at 1.1056 and sits just above the ema50 at 1.1060, capped so far by the 1.1063 Asian high, with ATR(14) at 3.6 pips pointing to a tight tape.
Support: 1.10603, 1.10563, 1.10454
Resistance: 1.10634, 1.10678
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1063 Asian high opens the 1.1068 prior pivot, near the 38.2% retrace of the NY sell-off
Close back below the 1.1056 higher low breaks the Asia trendline and puts the swing low at 1.1045 back in focus
ECB Sleijpen, Elderson and Schnabel from 06:15 GMT, then EZ GDP at 10:00 GMT, could shift this read before US PPI at 13:30 UTC
Higher low in Asia; price capped just under the ema50.
The USD-driven NY selloff on 50bp Fed repricing took the pair from 1.1096 to a 1.10454 ny low. Asia has printed a higher low at 1.10474 and bounced to a 1.10634 asian high. Price is now holding the 1.10563 pullback low, wedged between the ema20 at 1.1057 and the ema50 at 1.10602, with RSI(14) at a neutral 54 and ATR at 3.6 pips.
Support: 1.10563, 1.10474, 1.10454
Resistance: 1.10602, 1.10634, 1.10678
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.10634 asian high exposes the 1.10678 prior high from the NY session
Loss of the 1.10563 pullback low puts the 1.10474 asian low and 1.10454 ny low back in play; a break there resumes the lower-low sequence
ECB's Sleijpen, Elderson and Schnabel speak from 06:15 GMT into the London open and could shift this read
US PPI at 13:30 UTC is the larger swing risk for the pair later today
03:01 UTC
Asia bounce after NY selloff, momentum flattening · RSI 57 · price 1.10588
Higher low at 1.1056 inside the 1.1047–1.1063 Asian range.
Late Asia session. EURUSD has bounced from the 1.1047 Asian low to the 1.1063 Asian high, after Thursday's USD-driven NY selloff to the 1.1045 NY low. The pullback printed a higher low at 1.1056, just above the rising ema20 (1.10568), while the ema50 at 1.10603 has flattened with price barely above it. RSI is 57.1 and ATR is 3.6 pips, so the range is compressed heading into London open.
Support: 1.10563, 1.10474, 1.10454
Resistance: 1.10634, 1.10678
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1056 higher low and ema20 breaks the Asian bounce sequence and puts the 1.1047 Asian low back in play
M15 close above the 1.1063 Asian high opens the 1.1068 NY bounce high
Loss of the 1.1045 NY low resumes the lower-low sequence from Thursday
ECB Schnabel at 07:10 GMT and EZ Q3 GDP at 10:00 GMT could break the Asian range at London open; US PPI at 13:30 UTC is the larger risk
02:46 UTC
Downtrend paused, Asia ranging · RSI 51 · price 1.10567
Asia range 1.1047–1.1063 with a higher low above the NY low.
Thursday's NY selloff bottomed at the 1.1045 ny low. Asia then printed a higher low at 1.1047 before the bounce was rejected at the 1.1063 asia high, so price is back on the ema20 at 1.1057 and below the ema50 at 1.1060. USD firmness after Williams' hawkish remarks has kept the post-NY ranging below the 1.1068 ny range top. RSI 50.6 is neutral and ATR at 3.6 pips shows a compressed Asian session.
Support: 1.10565, 1.10474, 1.10454
Resistance: 1.10603, 1.10634, 1.10678
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1047 asia low and 1.1045 ny low breaks the higher-low structure and extends the downtrend
Close above the ema50 and the 1.1063 asia high opens the 1.1068 ny range top
Loss of the ema20 at 1.1057 puts price back below the asia leg fib midpoint
ECB Sleijpen 06:15, Elderson 06:50 and Schnabel 07:10 GMT around London open could break the Asian range
EZ GDP at 10:00 GMT and US PPI at 13:30 UTC are the larger risk events today
02:31 UTC
Down from the 1.1102 London high, Asian bounce stalling · RSI 54 · price 1.10581
Asian range 1.1047–1.1063 above the NY low.
NY reversed the 1.1102 London high on hawkish Fed repricing and firm USD, with the sell-off bottoming at the 1.1045 NY low. Asia has rebounded from 1.1047, but the move stalled at the 1.1063 Asian high, short of the 38.2% fib of the NY sell-off. Price sits between the ema20 (1.1056) and the ema50 (1.1060), and RSI(14) has cooled to 53.5 from 62.
Support: 1.10564, 1.10474, 1.10454
Resistance: 1.10604, 1.10634, 1.10656
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1063 Asian high and the 38.2% fib at 1.1066 would extend the Asian bounce
Loss of the ema20 at 1.1056 returns price toward the 1.1047 Asian low
Break of the 1.1045 NY low resumes the lower-low sequence
ECB Sleijpen, Elderson and Schnabel from 06:15 GMT, then EZ GDP at 10:00 GMT, could reshape the Asian range read
Double bottom at 1.1045–1.1047, overnight range top at 1.1057 broken.
After the NY sell-off from 1.1098 on hot-CPI Fed hike bets, the Asia session built a double bottom at the 1.1045 swing low and broke the 1.1057 range top, printing an Asia high at 1.1063. Price is holding just above a flat ema50 (1.1061) with the ema20 rising beneath at 1.1056. RSI(14) has eased to 59.8 and ATR sits at a compressed 3.7 pips.
Support: 1.1057, 1.10562, 1.10454
Resistance: 1.10634, 1.10678
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.1057 range top and ema20 would negate the double bottom breakout
Close above the 1.1063 asia high and the 1.1068 prior pivot (near 38.2% of the NY sell-off fib) extends the rebound
Failure to hold the 1.1045 swing low prints a fresh lower low
ECB Schnabel and others from 06:15 UTC, EZ GDP at 10:00 UTC and US PPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
02:01 UTC
Intraday downtrend, Asia bounce in progress · RSI 61 · price 1.10619
Higher lows off 1.1047 in Asia, testing the Asian high.
The pair slid from the 1.1098 NY high to a 1.1045 late-NY low. Williams' hawkish remarks pressed it back to the 1.1047 Asian low, a near-double bottom. Asia has since built higher lows, putting price above the ema50 (1.1061) and ema20 (1.1056), with the Asian high at 1.1063 capping. RSI is at 60.6 and ATR has compressed to 3.8 pips.
Support: 1.10605, 1.10557, 1.10474
Resistance: 1.10634, 1.10678
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1063 Asian high opens the 38.2% fib near 1.1066 and the 1.1068 prior high
Loss of the ema50 and a break of the Asian higher-lows line put the 1.1047 Asian low and the 1.1045 NY low back in focus
ECB Schnabel and Elderson from 06:15 UTC, EZ HICP at 08:00 and GDP at 10:00 could shift this read before US PPI at 13:30
With DXY pausing below its 103.08 high, the Asia session has lifted EURUSD off the 1.1047 asia low through the late-NY range top at 1.1057 and just above the ema50 at 1.1061. RSI(14) is at 62, up from a 35 trough. The bounce is still a retracement of the NY slide from 1.1098 to the 1.1045 day low. Next overhead is the 1.1068 swing high, which lines up with the 38.2% fib and the 1.1066 former low.
Support: 1.10605, 1.10571, 1.10474
Resistance: 1.10678, 1.10718
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.1057 range top turns the break into a false break and puts the 1.1047 asia low back in play
Close above the 1.1068 swing high opens the 50% fib at 1.1072
Loss of the Asia uptrend line would end the higher-low sequence
ECB Schnabel (07:10 UTC) and EZ inflation finals from 07:45 UTC could shift this read, with US PPI at 13:30 UTC the larger swing factor
01:31 UTC
Asian bounce inside a broader intraday downtrend · RSI 62 · price 1.10612
Asian higher lows; late-NY range top broken to the upside.
After the USD-led NY slide from 1.1096 to 1.1045 on hawkish Fed repricing, the Asian session has built higher lows off the 1.1047 asian low. Price has pushed through the 1.1057 late-NY range top and closed at 1.1062, just above the ema50 (1.10604), with RSI(14) at 61.9 and ATR at 4 pips. The 1.1068 bounce high from Thursday afternoon is the next level overhead.
Support: 1.10604, 1.10571, 1.10474
Resistance: 1.10678
What it said to watch
An M15 close back below the 1.1057 range top would turn the push into a false break
A close above the 1.1068 bounce high extends the Asian higher-low sequence
A break of the Asian rising line and the 1.1047 asian low would resume the NY lower-low structure
Schnabel (07:10 UTC) and the EZ inflation finals (07:45/08:00 UTC) ahead of US PPI at 13:30 UTC could reset this read
The NY-session slide on Fed hike repricing broke the 1.1066 broken low and printed a swing low at 1.10454. Since then price has compressed in a 1.1045–1.1057 band. Early Asia session put in an asia low at 1.10474 and is now pressing the asia high at 1.10574, with price above the ema20 but below the ema50, RSI(14) neutral at 50.9 and ATR contracting to 3.8 pips.
Support: 1.10537, 1.10474, 1.10454
Resistance: 1.10574, 1.10603, 1.10667
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.10574 asia high and the ema50 at 1.10603 opens a retest of the 1.10667 broken low, near the 38.2% fib of the NY drop
Failure back below the ema20 at 1.10537 and the 1.10474 asia low exposes the 1.10454 swing low; a break there extends the lower-low chain
ECB Schnabel (~6h) and the EZ national inflation finals could break the compression during London
US PPI and Fedspeak later Friday remain the larger swing factor for this read
01:01 UTC
Downtrend, compressing after NY selloff · RSI 45 · price 1.10521
Tight 1.1045–1.1057 box below both EMAs; Asia higher low at 1.1047.
Fed hike repricing drove a ~53-pip NY selloff from 1.1098 to the 1.1045 swing low. Since then price has compressed in a 1.1045–1.1057 box, with ATR(14) shrinking to 3.6 pips. Early Asia printed a higher low at the 1.1047 asian low, but price is still capped just under the ema20 at 1.10535 and the range top at 1.1057.
Support: 1.10474, 1.10454
Resistance: 1.10535, 1.1057, 1.10606
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1057 range top and the ema50 at 1.1061 would end the compression and bring the 38.2% of the NY selloff fib near 1.1065 into view
Failure at the 1.1047 asian low and the 1.1045 swing low would extend the lower-low sequence toward the 1.1000 area
Schnabel at 07:10 UTC and EZ inflation finals at 07:45–08:00 UTC could break the box around London open; US PPI later Friday is the larger swing factor
00:46 UTC
Downtrend, pausing in tight Asia range · RSI 44 · price 1.1052
Lower highs from 1.1102; flat 1.1045–1.1057 box below both EMAs.
Thursday's NY sell-off broke the 1.1066 prior low and ran to a 1.1045 ny low as DXY printed fresh highs on 50bp Fed-hike talk. Early Asia is now compressing between the 1.1047 asian low and the 1.1057 range top, with price under the ema20 (1.1054) and ema50 (1.1061) and ATR(14) contracting to 3.6 pips.
Support: 1.10474, 1.10454
Resistance: 1.10571, 1.10609, 1.10661
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1045 ny low resumes the lower-low sequence
Close above the 1.1057 range top and ema50 at 1.1061 shifts the read to a deeper bounce toward the 1.1066 prior low
Schnabel and EZ inflation finals in ~6–7h, then EZ GDP and US PPI later Friday, could break the compression
00:31 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 45 · price 1.10509
Lower highs since NY; tight 1.1045–1.1057 range.
EUR/USD rejected 1.1098 during NY hours and dropped about 53 pips to a 1.1045 session low as DXY pushed to 18-month highs on 50bp Fed talk. Since NY close it has held a 12-pip range under the 1.1057 range top, with lower highs intact. Early Asia trade sits below the ema20 at 1.10537 and the ema50 at 1.10612, with ATR compressed to 3.6 pips from 6.6.
Support: 1.10474, 1.10454
Resistance: 1.10537, 1.1057, 1.10612
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1057 range top breaks the lower-highs sequence; the ema50 at 1.10612 is next
Loss of the 1.10474 Asian low and the 1.10454 session low resumes the NY selloff, with 1.1000 the next marker
Schnabel at 07:10 UTC and EZ inflation finals at 07:45–08:00 UTC are the first catalysts. US PPI at 13:30 UTC is the larger swing risk.
Tight post-selloff range 1.1046–1.1057 with lower highs, early Asia session probing the floor.
Thursday's NY selloff from 1.1098 to the 1.10454 NY low followed hawkish Fed repricing that lifted USD. Since then price has held a 1.1046–1.1057 range with lower highs off the 1.10678 swing high, and early Asia trade is drifting toward the 1.10474 asia low. Price sits below the falling ema20 at 1.10538, RSI 34.9 is not yet oversold, and ATR has compressed to 3.5 pips.
Support: 1.10474, 1.10454
Resistance: 1.10538, 1.1057, 1.10678
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.10454 ny low extends the lower-low sequence of the NY selloff
M15 close back above the 1.1057 range top breaks the lower-highs trendline and opens the 1.10678 swing high
Schnabel at 07:10 UTC and EZ inflation finals at 07:45–08:00 UTC could break the Asian range
US PPI at 13:30 UTC is the larger swing risk for this read
Lower highs below ema20; tight range just above the NY swing low.
Thursday's NY sell-off ran from the 1.1098 post-claims high through the 1.1066 Asian low to a 1.1045 swing low, as Fed hike repricing lifted DXY to fresh highs. Early Asia is drifting back toward that low under the ema20 and a 1.1057 range top, with lower highs intact, RSI(14) at 36 and ATR(14) compressed to 3.6 pips.
Support: 1.10454, 1.1000
Resistance: 1.10543, 1.10571, 1.10661
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.1045 swing low extends the lower-low chain and puts the 1.1000 round number in view
M15 close above the 1.1057 range top and ema20 breaks the lower-highs line; the 1.1066 asian low is former support overhead
Schnabel at 07:10 UTC and EZ inflation finals at 07:45–08:00 UTC could break the Asian compression
US PPI at 13:30 UTC is the larger swing factor for this read