Post-NY tight range 1.1045–1.1057 after lower-low sell-off.
NY hours reversed the London rally from 1.1098 and broke the 1.1066 Asian low as Fed hike repricing lifted the dollar, printing a NY low at 1.1045. Since then a tight 1.1045–1.1057 range has held with ATR(14) compressing from 7.0 to 3.6 pips. Price is pressing the range floor near 1.1050, below a falling ema20 (1.1055) and ema50 (1.1063), with RSI(14) at 37.7.
Support: 1.10499, 1.10454
Resistance: 1.10548, 1.10571, 1.10678
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1045 NY low extends the lower-low sequence, with 1.1000 the next round number
Close above the 1.1057 range high and ema20 breaks the lower-highs line, exposing the 1.1068 bounce high
Fed's Williams remarks and the EU leaders summit in 14 min, then Schnabel at 07:10 UTC and EZ inflation finals, could break the ATR compression
23:31 UTC
Downtrend, compressing after NY sell-off · RSI 41 · price 1.10529
Tight 5-pip range above NY low, below ema20.
The NY sell-off from 1.1098 broke the Asia low at 1.1066 and printed a NY low at 1.1045 as DXY pushed to 18-month highs. Since then price has held a tight 1.1052–1.1057 range below the ema20, with ATR(14) down to 3.7 pips from 7.3 and RSI(14) at 41. Early Asia trade sits on the range low, and the 38.2% retracement of the NY sell-off lines up with the old Asia low near 1.1066.
Support: 1.1052, 1.10454
Resistance: 1.10553, 1.10571, 1.1066
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1052 range low exposes the 1.1045 NY low
M15 close above the 1.1057 range top and ema20 opens a retest of the 1.1066 Asia low / 38.2% fib
Fed's Williams is speaking now and the EU leaders summit starts in ~30 min; either could break the ATR compression
Tight post-selloff range under lower highs, ATR compressed.
NY session reversed the London rally from 1.1098, and the NY selloff took out the 1.1066 Asian low as Fed 50bp repricing pushed DXY to 18-month highs, printing a session low at 1.1045. Since then price has held a 1.1052–1.1057 range floor-to-range top band under a falling ema50 at 1.1064 and a line of lower highs. ATR has compressed to 3.8 pips into the Asia open.
Support: 1.1052, 1.10454, 1.1000
Resistance: 1.10571, 1.10635, 1.10661
What it said to watch
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC, with the EU leaders summit from 00:00 UTC; any 50bp endorsement could break the compressed range
A close below the 1.1045 session low extends the lower-low sequence and leaves the 1.1000 round number as the next reference
Reclaiming the ema50 at 1.1064 and the 1.1066 Asian low would break the lower highs and weaken the downtrend read
23:01 UTC
Downtrend, compressing after NY sell-off · RSI 42 · price 1.10562
Lower highs from 1.1098; tight 1.1052–1.1057 range above the 1.1045 session low.
The NY sell-off from 1.1098 after jobless claims ran to a 1.1045 session low as DXY pushed to 18-month highs. Since late NY, price has been compressed in a 1.1052–1.1057 range with ATR(14) down to 3.8 pips. Price is below both EMAs with RSI(14) at 42, and the 1.1068 lower high still caps the structure.
Support: 1.10516, 1.10454, 1.1000
Resistance: 1.10571, 1.10639, 1.10678
What it said to watch
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC, about 29 min out, could break the quiet Asia range
M15 close above the 1.1057 range high and the ema50 at 1.1064 would test the 1.1068 lower high
Break below the range low at 1.1052, then the 1.1045 session low, exposes the 1.1000 psych level
EU leaders summit at 00:00 UTC is a secondary event risk during the Asia session
Lower highs from London high; tight post-low range below EMAs.
Supply capped the London high at 1.1102. NY then broke the session range lower through 1.1066 to a session low at 1.1045 as USD extended its Fed-hike repricing, and the 38.2% fib of that drop lines up with the 1.1068 bounce high. Since then price has compressed between the range floor at 1.1052 and the range top at 1.1057, below the ema20 (1.1056) and ema50 (1.1064). ATR(14) has shrunk to 4.1 pips and RSI has recovered to 42 from oversold.
Support: 1.1052, 1.10454
Resistance: 1.10558, 1.10571, 1.10678
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1057 range top and ema20 points to a retrace toward the 1.1068 bounce high / 38.2% fib
Break below the 1.1052 range floor exposes the 1.1045 session low; a print under it extends the lower-low chain
Fed's Williams speaks in ~44 min; 50bp-hike commentary could break the thin post-NY range
US PPI in the next NY session is the larger volatility risk for this structure
22:31 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 42 · price 1.10533
Lower highs from 1.1098; tight post-NY range 1.1046–1.1057.
NY session sold off from 1.1098 as the hawkish Fed repricing kept USD bid, taking out the 1.1066 low and printing a 1.1045 swing low. After NY close price has compressed in a 1.1046–1.1057 box capped by the ema20, with ATR(14) shrinking from 8.2 to 4.3 pips and RSI(14) recovered to 42.
Support: 1.1050, 1.10454
Resistance: 1.1056, 1.10647, 1.10678
What it said to watch
Fed's Williams in ~1h; any 50bp December endorsement could break the compression
M15 close above the ema20 (1.1056) and ema50 (1.1065) shifts the read to a basing range, with the 1.1068 lower high next
Failure at the 1.1050 round number and a break of the 1.1045 swing low extends the NY selloff lower-low sequence
22:16 UTC
Downtrend, compressing after NY sell-off · RSI 46 · price 1.10545
Asian range low broken in NY; lower highs into a tight post-NY range.
With USD bid on Fed-hike repricing, NY sold off from 1.1098, broke the Asian range low near 1.1066 and set a session low at 1.10454. Since then the pair has sat in a 1.1052–1.1057 range just under the flat ema20 (1.10563) and below a line of lower highs. ATR has compressed to 4.4 pips and RSI(14) has climbed from 29 to 45.8 without reclaiming the ema50 at 1.10652, which also lines up with the 38.2% fib of the NY drop.
Support: 1.10521, 1.10454
Resistance: 1.1057, 1.10652
What it said to watch
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC (74 min) could break the post-NY compression either way
M15 close above the 1.1057 range top and the lower highs line puts the ema50 / 38.2% fib zone at 1.1065 in play
Failure to hold the 1.10521 range low exposes the 1.10454 session low
US PPI on Friday at 13:30 UTC is the next major driver for the range
Lower highs from 1.1102, tight post-NY range above session low.
The NY session rejected a lower high at 1.1098 and broke the Asian range, then the asia low at 1.1066. It slid to a session low of 1.1045 as hawkish Fed repricing kept USD firm. Post-NY trade is a 1.1052–1.1057 drift, with ATR(14) compressed to 4.5 pips and RSI(14) recovered to 44.8 from sub-30. Price sits just under ema20 (1.1056) and below ema50 (1.1066), with the lower highs trendline capping the range top.
Support: 1.10516, 1.10454
Resistance: 1.10571, 1.10661, 1.10982
What it said to watch
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC could break the current compression
M15 close above the 1.1057 range top and ema20 tests the lower highs line
Reclaim of the 1.1066 asia low, which aligns with ema50 and the 38.2% fib of the NY drop, would weaken the downtrend read
Failure to hold the 1.1052 range floor re-exposes the 1.1045 session low
21:46 UTC
Downtrend, compressing after NY sell-off · RSI 41 · price 1.1054
Lower highs from 1.1098; tight post-NY range 1.1052–1.1057.
NY session sold off from the 1.1098 NY high to a 1.1045 NY low as USD extended its Fed-hike bid, slicing through the Asian range low near 1.1066. Since NY close, price has compressed between a 1.1052 range low and 1.1057 range top, below the ema20 (1.1056) and the ema50 (1.1066). RSI(14) has recovered to 41 from sub-30 and ATR has halved to 4.7 pips.
Support: 1.1052, 1.1045, 1.1000
Resistance: 1.1057, 1.1066, 1.1098
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1057 range top and ema20 opens the ema50 at 1.1066, near the 38.2% fib of the NY sell-off
Break of the 1.1052 range low exposes the 1.1045 NY low; failure there leaves 1.1000 psych as the next reference
Recovery of the 1.1098 NY high would break the lower-high sequence
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC could break the current compression
Lower low at 1.1045 after NY sell-off, now a tight 1.1052–1.1057 band below ema20.
The NY-session slide from 1.1098 broke the Asian low near 1.1066 and printed a session low at 1.1045 as the dollar held around 103.00 on Fed-hike repricing. Since then, late NY has compressed between a 1.1052 range floor and the ema20 at 1.1057, with ATR(14) down to 4.9 pips. RSI(14) has recovered to 41 from sub-30, but price holds below both EMAs and under the 23.6% retracement of the NY sell-off.
Support: 1.1052, 1.1045
Resistance: 1.10567, 1.10664
What it said to watch
M15 close above the ema20 at 1.1057 breaks the compression and exposes the ema50 at 1.1066, near the former Asian low
Loss of the 1.1052 range floor, then the 1.1045 session low, extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.1000 round number
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC (~2h) could break the low-ATR compression
21:16 UTC
Downtrend, compressing late NY · RSI 42 · price 1.10543
Lower highs since NY high, tight range above session low.
NY hours reversed from the 1.1098 NY high to a 1.1045 session low as the hawkish-Fed read kept USD bid, taking out the 1.1066 18-month low. Price has since compressed in a 1.1052–1.1057 range just under the ema20, with ATR(14) down to 5.1 pips and RSI(14) recovering to 42 from a 29 dip.
Support: 1.1052, 1.1045
Resistance: 1.1057, 1.1067, 1.1098
What it said to watch
M15 close above the ema50 at 1.1067 breaks the lower-high sequence and the 38.2% fib
Failure to hold the range floor at 1.1052 puts the 1.1045 session low back in play
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC could materially shift this read in thin Asia session trade
21:01 UTC
Downtrend, pausing after NY low · RSI 45 · price 1.10564
Lower high at 1.1098, lower low at 1.1045, tight base below ema20.
The jobless-claims bounce stalled at the 1.1098 NY high. The NY selloff that followed, on the firm-USD Fed-hike repricing, broke the 1.1066 Asian low and made a swing low at 1.1045 late in the session. After NY close the pair is drifting in a 1.1050–1.1057 band just under the flattening ema20, with RSI(14) recovering to 44.8 from 29.3 and ATR(14) compressing to 5.3 pips.
Support: 1.1050, 1.10454
Resistance: 1.10573, 1.10982
What it said to watch
M15 close above the ema50 at 1.1068, which is also the 38.2% of the NY selloff, would undercut the lower-high sequence
Break of the 1.1045 swing low after the round number at 1.1050 gives way confirms a fresh lower low
Holding back under the ema20 at 1.1057 keeps the post-selloff base capped
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC could materially shift this read
A close back above the 1.1098 ny high would erase the NY selloff
20:46 UTC
Downtrend, pausing after NY selloff · RSI 42 · price 1.10553
Tight late-NY range 1.1052–1.1057 above session low.
The NY session broke down from the 1.1098 NY high to a 1.1045 session low, below the London range, as the USD stayed bid on Fed-hike repricing. Since then price has been held in a tight range between the 1.1052 range low and the ema20 at 1.1057. RSI(14) has recovered from 29 to 42, and ATR(14) has compressed from 8.4 to 5.5 pips.
Support: 1.10516, 1.10454, 1.1000
Resistance: 1.10574, 1.10678, 1.10982
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.1052 range low exposes the 1.1045 session low; a break there extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.1000 psych level
M15 closes above the ema20 and the 1.1068 bounce high (EMA50 at 1.1068) would turn the late-session pause into a deeper retracement of the NY drop
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC could materially shift this read
US PPI on Friday is the next major volatility risk
20:31 UTC
Downtrend, momentum fading into late NY · RSI 43 · price 1.1055
Lower highs from the NY high; tight compression above the session low.
London's false break above the 1.1100 Asian high faded, and the hot-CPI USD bid then drove a NY-hours slide from the 1.1098 NY high through the Asian low at 1.1066 to a session low at 1.1045. Late NY is compressing in a 1.1047–1.1057 band just under ema20 (1.1058), with ATR(14) contracting to 5.8 pips and RSI(14) recovered from oversold to 42.6. The 38.2% fib of the NY selloff sits at the Asian low.
Support: 1.10454, 1.1000
Resistance: 1.10576, 1.10661, 1.10982
What it said to watch
An M15 close above ema20 at 1.1058 ends the late-NY compression. Reclaiming the Asian low at 1.1066 (38.2% fib) would mark a deeper retrace of the NY selloff.
Failure to hold the 1.1045 session low confirms a lower low and exposes the 1.1000 psych level.
A move back toward the 1.1098 NY high would negate the lower-high sequence.
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC, during the Asia session, could materially shift this read.
Lower highs below 1.1068; tight base above 1.1045 session low.
NY reversed from the 1.1098 NY high and broke through the 1.1066 18-month low to a 1.1045 session low as the Fed-hike USD bid resumed. Late NY has built a marginal higher low at 1.1047 and drifted back to the ema20 at 1.1058. RSI(14) has recovered from 29 to 43.7 and ATR has compressed to 6.1 pips, but the 1.1068 lower high still caps the bounce.
Support: 1.10466, 1.10454
Resistance: 1.10579, 1.10678, 1.10982
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1068 lower high, which also sits at the EMA50 (1.1069) and the 38.2% NY selloff fib, would break the lower-high sequence
Repeated failure at the ema20 near 1.1058 keeps the lower-highs trendline intact
A break of the 1.1047 higher low and the 1.1045 session low resumes the lower-low chain toward 1.1000
Fed's Williams speaks in ~3h (23:30 UTC); any 50bp December hike signal could materially shift this read
20:01 UTC
Downtrend, late-NY pause · RSI 42 · price 1.10552
Lower highs since NY open; small base above 1.1045 session low.
NY session reversed London's push to 1.1102, dropping from 1.1098 to 1.1053 as the USD stayed firm on Fed-hike pricing. It then broke the 1.1053–1.1068 range to a session low at 1.1045. Price is now basing just above the range floor, below the ema20 at 1.1058 and a falling trendline of lower highs, with RSI(14) back to 42 from 29 and ATR compressing to 6.4 pips.
Support: 1.10529, 1.10454
Resistance: 1.10581, 1.10678, 1.10695
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1068 range top and ema50 at 1.10695 breaks the lower-high sequence and the trendline
Failure to hold the 1.1053 range floor puts the 1.1045 session low back in play; a break there extends the lower-low chain
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC (~3.5h) could materially shift this read on any 50bp December signal
19:46 UTC
Downtrend, momentum fading into late NY · RSI 38 · price 1.10518
Lower highs below the broken Asian low, tight base above 1.1045.
London's push just above the Asian high near 1.1100 failed, and the NY selloff from 1.1098 broke the Asian low at 1.1066 to a session low of 1.1045 as USD stayed bid on Fed-hike pricing. Late NY is now compressing beneath a 1.1057 range top and the EMA20 (1.1058) on a run of lower highs, with RSI at 37.8 and ATR easing to 6.6 pips as Lagarde speaks.
Support: 1.10454, 1.1000
Resistance: 1.1057, 1.10661, 1.10701
What it said to watch
Lagarde speaking now (19:30 UTC): a signal of hikes beyond December or an end-of-cycle framing could break the compression
M15 close above the 1.1057 range top and the lower-highs line puts the Asian low at 1.1066 and the EMA50 at 1.1070 in play
Failure to hold the 1.1045 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.1000 round number
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC could reprice 50bp December odds
19:31 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 39 · price 1.10533
Lower highs from 1.1098; tight base above 1.1045 session low.
NY session reversed the post-claims pop at 1.1098 in a 53-pip slide through the Asian low at 1.1066 to a 1.1045 session low, as Fed-hike pricing keeps USD bid. Price is now compressing just above the 1.1050 psych level, capped by the 1.1057 bounce high and ema20 at 1.1059, with ATR easing to 6.7 pips as Lagarde's 19:30 UTC speech starts.
Support: 1.1050, 1.10454
Resistance: 1.1057, 1.1059, 1.10678
What it said to watch
Lagarde speaking now (19:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 1.1068 lower high breaks the NY lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 1.1045 session low extends the downtrend toward 1.1000
Close back above the 1.1057 bounce high and ema20 would end the base's capped phase
Lower highs and lower lows since the 1.1098 NY high; late-NY bounce off the session low.
The NY selloff ran from the 1.1098 high to a session low at 1.1045 as Fed-hike bets kept USD bid. That break took price below the 1.1053 prior shelf and the 1.1066 low cited in the digest, with price under both EMAs and RSI(14) at 36.6. The late-NY bounce is pressing the lower-highs line near 1.1053–1.1055 as ATR compresses to 6.9 pips.
Support: 1.10454, 1.1000
Resistance: 1.10549, 1.10596, 1.10678
What it said to watch
Lagarde at 19:30 UTC (in ~14 min) could materially shift this read; any signal of hikes beyond December would test the 1.1055 prior shelf and the ema20 at 1.1060
An M15 close above the 1.1068 lower high breaks the lower-highs chain and reaches the 38.2% retracement of the NY selloff
Failure to hold the 1.1045 session low extends the downtrend toward the 1.1000 psych level
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC adds USD event risk on 50bp December pricing
19:01 UTC
Downtrend, momentum easing near the lows · RSI 35 · price 1.10498
Lower highs and lower lows since the 14:15 UTC high; broken shelf retested from below.
The NY session reversed from 1.1098 into a 53-pip sell-off on the hawkish Fed repricing. It broke the 1.1053 shelf to a session low at 1.1045, and the retest of the broken shelf at 1.1055 was capped, with price below a falling ema20 at 1.1060. RSI(14) is at 35 after holding near 29 on the lower low, and ATR(14) has compressed to 7 pips into late NY hours.
Support: 1.10454, 1.1000
Resistance: 1.10535, 1.10604, 1.10678
What it said to watch
Lagarde at 19:30 UTC (high impact) could materially shift this read; the 7-pip ATR understates event risk
An M15 close back above the 1.1053 broken shelf and the lower-high trendline weakens the breakdown read; the 1.1068 lower high sits above the ema20
Failure to hold the 1.1045 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.1000 round number
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC on 50bp December hike pricing
Lower highs from 1.1098, base broken, holding above 1.1045 low.
The NY session reversed the London push to 1.1102. Renewed USD demand on Fed-hike repricing drove a 50-pip sell-off from 1.1098, then a late break of the 1.1053–1.1068 base to a 1.1045 swing low. Price sits below both EMAs with RSI(14) at 34, and ATR is compressing to 7.3 pips ahead of Lagarde.
Support: 1.10454, 1.1000
Resistance: 1.10533, 1.10615, 1.10678
What it said to watch
ECB Lagarde at 19:30 UTC (high impact) could materially shift this read
M15 close back above the 1.1053 range floor negates the break and puts the 1.1068 range top back in play
ema20 at 1.10615 has capped every bounce since the sell-off; a hold above it eases the lower-high sequence
Close below the 1.1045 swing low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.1000 psych level
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC on 50bp December pricing
Lower highs from 1.1098 and lower lows; 1.1053–1.1068 base broken, now being retested from below.
The NY session reversed the 1.1098 bounce and broke the 1.1053–1.1068 prior base in late NY hours, printing a fresh session low at 1.1045 as hawkish Fed repricing kept USD bid. Price is now retesting the underside of that base at 1.1053, below both the ema20 and the ema50. RSI(14) has lifted to 35.7 from 29 and ATR(14) has eased to 7.4 pips.
Support: 1.10454, 1.1000
Resistance: 1.10534, 1.10627, 1.10742
What it said to watch
Lagarde speaks at 19:30 UTC (high impact), less than an hour away, and could materially shift this read
Rejection at the 1.1053 prior base keeps the lower-high chain intact; a loss of the 1.1045 session low extends it toward the 1.1000 round number
An M15 close back above the ema20 near 1.1063 and the 1.1068 base top neutralises the breakdown; the ema50 at 1.1074 is the next cap
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC is a further risk to the read on 50bp December hike talk
Lower highs and lower lows; late-NY break of the 1.1053–1.1068 range.
NY sold off from 1.1098 through the Asian low at 1.1066 as Fed-hike repricing kept USD bid, then broke the 1.1053–1.1068 range late in the session to a fresh session low at 1.1045. Price is now retesting the broken range floor from below, under a falling ema20 at 1.1064. RSI(14) is at 34 after holding near 29 on the lower low, and ATR(14) has eased to 7.7 pips.
Support: 1.10454, 1.1000
Resistance: 1.10533, 1.10638, 1.10661
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.1053 range floor negates the range break
Reclaim of the 1.1066 asian low and the ema20 near 1.1064, around the 38.2% of the NY sell-off fib, would mark a deeper correction
Failure to hold the 1.1045 session low exposes the 1.1000 round number
Fed's Schmid in 14 min and ECB Lagarde at 19:30 UTC (high impact) could materially shift this read
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC is risk into the Asian session
18:01 UTC
Downtrend, oversold after late-NY leg lower · RSI 29 · price 1.10467
Lower highs since NY high, 1.1053 base broken.
NY session reversed the London rally to 1.1102. Hawkish Fed repricing drove a roughly 50-pip drop from the 1.1098 NY high into a 1.1053–1.1068 base, and lower highs then broke that base late NY. The pair printed a session low at 1.1045, below the 1.1066 low flagged earlier in the week, with RSI(14) oversold at 29.3 and price below both a falling ema20 (1.1065) and ema50 (1.1076).
Support: 1.10454, 1.1000
Resistance: 1.10533, 1.10651, 1.10761
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.1053 broken base would mark a false break and stall the lower-highs sequence
Failure to hold the 1.1045 session low leaves the 1.1000 round number exposed
Ema20 at 1.1065 is the first cap on any bounce, with ema50 at 1.1076 above it
Fed's Daly in ~9 min and Schmid in ~29 min could extend the USD bid
Lagarde at 19:30 UTC (high impact) could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 1.11024; NY broke the Asian low, now basing at 1.1053.
NY session rolled over from 1.10982 after jobless claims and broke below the Asian low near 1.1066 to a session low of 1.10533, in line with hawkish Fed repricing keeping USD firm. Twin lows at 1.10533–35 held, with RSI(14) at 33.6 after a 29.2 dip. The bounce stalled at the 1.10678 bounce high, below the 38.2% fib, and price sits under the ema20 (1.10719) and ema50 (1.10803) with ATR(14) expanded to 8.4 pips.
Support: 1.10533, 1.1050
Resistance: 1.10678, 1.10719, 1.10803
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.10533 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.1050 round number
Close above the 1.10678 bounce high and the ema20 at 1.10719 would mark a lower-highs break toward 1.10803 ema50
Fed's Daly and Schmid within 90 minutes, then Lagarde at 19:30 UTC (HIGH), could materially shift this read
16:46 UTC
Downtrend, extended into the NY afternoon · RSI 34 · price 1.10553
Lower highs from the London peak; Asian range broken lower, session low holding.
The NY selloff from the 1.1098 lower high broke the Asia low at 1.1066 and pushed to a fresh session low at 1.1053 as hawkish Fed repricing kept the dollar bid. The 16:00 UTC bounce stalled at the broken Asia low, a retest, while the session low has held three tests. RSI(14) sits at 33.6, up from a 29 dip, ATR(14) has expanded to 8.7 pips, and price is below a falling ema20 at 1.1074.
Support: 1.10533, 1.1050
Resistance: 1.10661, 1.10736
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 1.1053 session low and the 1.1050 round number extends the downtrend leg
Reclaiming the 1.1066 Asia low puts price back inside the Asian range and weakens the breakdown read
A move above the ema20 near 1.1074, the 38.2% retrace of the NY drop, eases the lower highs sequence
Fed's Daly at 18:10 UTC and Lagarde at 19:30 UTC (high impact) could materially shift this read
16:31 UTC
Downtrend, NY selloff extended · RSI 35 · price 1.10564
Lower high at 1.1098, broke Asian low, basing at session low.
NY session sold off from the 1.1098 lower high and cut through the Asian low at 1.1066 to a session low of 1.1053, below the 1.1066 low the macro digest cites, as hawkish Fed repricing kept USD bid. After London close price is holding just above that session low, below both EMAs. RSI(14) is at 35 after dipping to 29, and ATR(14) has expanded to 8.8 pips from 5.2.
Support: 1.10533, 1.1050
Resistance: 1.10661, 1.10755
What it said to watch
A break of the 1.1053 session low exposes the 1.1050 round number
A recovery back above the 1.1066 Asian low would turn the range break into a false break
An M15 close above the ema20 at 1.1076 would mark the selloff's momentum as fading
Goolsbee speaking now, Daly and Schmid within 2h and Lagarde at 19:30 UTC could materially shift this read
NY broke below the Asian low; lower highs, now retesting the break.
The post-claims pop to the 1.1098 NY high reversed into a NY sell-off that broke the Asian low at 1.1066 and printed a 1.1053 session low, with USD still bid on Fed hike repricing. After London close, price is retesting 1.1066 from below with RSI(14) recovered to 39 from 29. The falling ema20 at 1.1077 has crossed under the ema50, and ATR(14) has expanded to 8.5 pips.
Support: 1.10533, 1.1050
Resistance: 1.1066, 1.10773, 1.10982
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.1066 asian low turns the break into a false break and puts the ema20 at 1.1077 in play
Failure to hold the 1.1053 session low extends lower lows toward the 1.1050 round number
Recovery through 1.1098 NY high negates the NY sell-off structure
Fed's Goolsbee in ~15 min, then Lagarde at 19:30 UTC (high impact), could materially shift this read
Lower highs below the London high; Asian range low broken, now retested from below.
Supply capped NY at the 1.1098 NY high, a lower high under London's 1.1102 top. Price then broke the Asian low at 1.1066 to a session low of 1.1053 as Fed-hike repricing kept USD bid. The bounce has RSI(14) back at 39.5 from a 29.2 dip, with price retesting 1.1066 from below, under both EMAs, EMA20 crossed beneath EMA50 and ATR expanded to 8.4 pips.
Support: 1.10533, 1.1050
Resistance: 1.1066, 1.10785, 1.10982
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.1066 Asian low and the ema20 at 1.1079 negates the range break
Rejection at 1.1066 and a loss of the 1.1053 session low exposes the 1.1050 round number
A move through the 1.1098 NY high breaks the lower highs sequence
Fed's Goolsbee in ~30 min and Lagarde at 19:30 UTC could materially shift this read
15:46 UTC
Downtrend, oversold after NY flush · RSI 29 · price 1.10584
NY lower high at 1.1098, break of Asian range low.
The NY sell-off from the 1.1098 NY high broke the 1.1066 Asian low, also the prior 18-month low, and printed a session low at 1.1053 as firm USD on hawkish Fed repricing outweighed the claims miss. RSI(14) is oversold at 29.2 and ATR has expanded to 8.2 pips. Price sits below the ema20 (1.1080) and ema50 (1.1085), with the 1.1050 psych level just under the session low.
Support: 1.10533, 1.1050
Resistance: 1.10661, 1.10798, 1.10982
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 1.1066 Asian low would turn the break into a false break
Failure to hold the 1.1053 session low and 1.1050 psych extends the lower-low sequence
A reclaim of the ema20 at 1.1080 would ease the downside momentum read
A close above the 1.1098 NY high breaks the lower-highs trendline
Fed's Goolsbee in ~45 min and Lagarde at 19:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower high at 1.1098, then a break below the Asian low to a fresh session low.
The NY session rolled over from a 1.1098 lower high, below London's 1.1102 top. It sliced through the Asian low at 1.1066 to a 1.1054 session low, extending the 18-month low as hawkish Fed repricing keeps USD firm. Price is below both EMAs. RSI(14) at 31.3 is near, but not at, oversold, and ATR has expanded from 5.2 to 8.1 pips.
Support: 1.10535, 1.1050
Resistance: 1.10661, 1.10823, 1.10982
What it said to watch
A close back above the 1.1066 asian low would turn the break into a false break
Failure to hold the 1.1054 session low exposes the 1.1050 round number
Reclaiming the ema20 at 1.1082 is needed to neutralise the intraday down-leg
Goolsbee in ~1h and the HIGH-impact Lagarde speech at 19:30 UTC could materially shift this read
15:16 UTC
Downtrend, momentum accelerating in NY · RSI 33 · price 1.10633
Lower high under London high, Asian low broken.
NY session reversed the London rally. A lower high at 1.10982 gave way to a slide through the NY swing low at 1.10754 and the Asian low at 1.10661, printing a session low at 1.10618 as hawkish Fed repricing keeps USD firm. RSI(14) sits at 33.1, not yet oversold, ATR has widened to 7.9 pips and price trades below the ema20 at 1.10846 and the EMA50.
Support: 1.10618, 1.1050
Resistance: 1.10661, 1.10754, 1.10846
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.10661 asian low would mark the break as a false break
Acceptance below the 1.10618 session low exposes the 1.1050 round number
Reclaim of the 1.10754 ny swing low and the ema20 neutralises the lower-high sequence
ECB's Vujčić at 15:30 UTC and Goolsbee at 16:30 UTC can move this read; Lagarde at 19:30 UTC is the high-impact risk
Lower high at 1.1098 under the London high, NY low broken.
NY session was rejected at a 1.1098 lower high under the 1.1102 London high. Price then broke the 1.1075 NY low to trade at 1.1073, below both EMAs, with RSI(14) at 38.8 and ATR(14) expanding to 7.6 pips. Price is back at the 1.1070 London low, and the 1.1066 Asia low just beneath is the 18-month low set on the hot-CPI Fed repricing.
Support: 1.10705, 1.10661
Resistance: 1.10867, 1.10982
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.1066 asia low prints a fresh 18-month low and extends the lower-low sequence
M15 close back above the ema20 at 1.1087 neutralises the NY rejection
Close above the 1.1098 lower high breaks the trendline from the London high
ECB's Vujčić at 15:30 UTC, Fed's Goolsbee and Daly, then Lagarde (HIGH) at 19:30 UTC can materially shift this read
14:46 UTC
Intraday range, sellers active below flat EMAs · RSI 45 · price 1.10818
London rally fully faded into a choppy NY range of 1.1075–1.1098.
With USD firm after the hot CPI, the London rally from 1.1070 to the 1.1102 london high has been retraced to the 61.8% near 1.1083. The NY session was rejected at the 1.1098 ny high and slipped back below the flat ema20 (1.1088) and EMA50, with ATR(14) widening to 7.6 pips from about 5.
Support: 1.10796, 1.10754, 1.10661
Resistance: 1.10881, 1.10982, 1.11024
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.1080 swing low and the 1.1075 ny low exposes the 1.1066 asian low, the 18-month low
M15 close back above the ema20 at 1.1088 and the 1.1098 ny high reopens the 1.1102 london high
Fed's Barr and US Existing Home Sales at 15:00 UTC, then ECB's Vujčić at 15:30 UTC, could break the NY range
Lagarde (HIGH) at 19:30 UTC could materially shift this read
14:31 UTC
Intraday recovery inside a contracting range · RSI 59 · price 1.10942
Higher swing low at 1.1075, NY high below the London high, range tightening.
The Asian low at 1.1066 held. London pushed 1.1102 just past the Asian high and was rejected, a false break, and the 13:00 UTC dip set a higher swing low at 1.1075. After the 200K claims print, price rebounded through ema20/ema50 at 1.1089 to a 1.1098 NY high, with RSI(14) back to 58.5 and ATR(14) expanding to 7 pips along the rising lows.
Support: 1.10887, 1.10754, 1.10661
Resistance: 1.10982, 1.11024
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1102 london high breaks the session range
Rejection at the 1.1098 ny high would leave a lower high below London's peak
Loss of ema20/ema50 at 1.1089 and the 1.1075 swing low breaks the rising lows and exposes the 1.1066 asian low
Barr and Existing Home Sales at 15:00 UTC, Vujčić 15:30 UTC and Lagarde (HIGH) at 19:30 UTC could materially shift this read
14:16 UTC
Recovering from Asia low, mid-range · RSI 55 · price 1.10937
Higher low at 1.1075 inside the 1.1075–1.1102 London range.
Asia printed the 18-month asia low at 1.1066 before the London rally squeezed to the 1.1102 london high, where it met rejection. The NY-open dip held a swing low at 1.1075 above the rising lows line, and price has reclaimed the ema20 and ema50 to sit just under the 1.1096 ny high as the dollar pauses after the slightly soft 200K claims print. RSI(14) is neutral at 54.7 and ATR(14) has widened to 7 pips.
Support: 1.10885, 1.10754, 1.10661
Resistance: 1.10961, 1.11024
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1102 london high breaks the session range
Failure to hold the 1.1075 swing low and the rising lows line reopens the 1.1066 asia low
Holding above the ema50 at 1.1089 keeps the recovery from the swing low intact
Fed's Barr in ~45m, ECB's Vujčić in ~75m and Lagarde (high impact) at 19:30 UTC could materially shift this read
14:01 UTC
Intraday range after failed push above 1.1100 · RSI 51 · price 1.10916
Lower highs since London high, higher low off Asian low.
London lifted EUR/USD from the 1.1066 asian low to a 1.11024 london high, but the break above 1.1100 failed against a dollar still firm on hot CPI and Fed repricing. The pullback held the 61.8% of that rally fib, and the 13:00 UTC swing low at 1.10754 was bought ahead of the softer 200K claims print. Price has since recovered above a flat ema20 and ema50, which crossed lower in the pullback, with RSI(14) neutral at 51.3 and ATR(14) up to 7 pips from 5.2.
Support: 1.10875, 1.10754, 1.10661
Resistance: 1.10952, 1.11024
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.10952 lower high reopens the 1.11024 london high
Failure to hold 1.10754 swing low exposes the 1.10661 asian low
Fed's Barr and Existing Home Sales in ~1h, then Vujčić; Lagarde at 19:30 UTC could materially shift this read
A close back below the ema20 at 1.10875 returns price to the post-London pullback range
13:46 UTC
Intraday pullback, lower highs off London high · RSI 49 · price 1.10855
London rally 1.1071–1.1102 retraced, NY lower highs.
London's rally from the 1.1071 swing low hit rejection at the 1.1102 London high. Price has made lower highs since. The 13:00 UTC flush swept below the 1.1080 pivot to a 1.1075 NY low. Jobless claims (200K, in line) drew a bounce that is still capped under the ema20/ema50 cluster near 1.1087–1.1088, with RSI(14) neutral at 48.9 and ATR(14) expanding to 6.8 pips.
Support: 1.10754, 1.10705, 1.10661
Resistance: 1.10883, 1.10931, 1.11024
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1088 ema50 and the 1.1093 lower high breaks the NY lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 1.1075 NY low exposes the 1.1071 swing low and the 1.1066 Asia low (18-month low)
Fed's Hammack at 14:00 UTC, then Barr and Goolsbee, could extend the post-claims swing
Lagarde at 19:30 UTC is the high-impact risk for this read
Lower highs and lower lows since the London session high.
The London rally from the 1.1071 London low to the 1.1102 session high has been unwound into the NY open. Lower highs led into a rejection wick at the 1.1093 spike high, and that bar then printed the 1.1075 NY low. Price sits between the 50% and 61.8% retrace of the rally, below ema20 (1.10875) and ema50 (1.10884). RSI(14) is at 45.7 after cooling from 72, and ATR(14) has expanded to 6.8 pips as jobless claims land.
Support: 1.10754, 1.10705, 1.10661
Resistance: 1.10875, 1.10931, 1.11024
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.1075 NY low exposes the 1.1071 London low and the 1.1066 Asian low, which is also the 18-month low
M15 close back above ema20/ema50 near 1.1088 and the 1.1093 spike high breaks the lower-high sequence and reopens the 1.1102 session high
Jobless claims (13:30 UTC) and Fed's Hammack at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read; Lagarde at 19:30 UTC is the high-impact event
Lower highs and lower lows since the 1.1102 London high.
The London rally from the 1.1071 pre-London low stalled at 1.1102, a rejection just under the 1.1100 area. Since then price has printed lower highs and lower lows, and a 13:00 UTC flush to a 1.1075 spike low took it back below ema20 and ema50, close to the 78.6% retracement of that rally. RSI(14) sits at 36 and ATR has expanded to 6.3 pips, with USD firm on post-CPI Fed repricing and the Asian low at 1.1066 the next swing reference.
Support: 1.10754, 1.10705, 1.10661
Resistance: 1.10879, 1.10952, 1.11024
What it said to watch
Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC (14 min) could materially shift this read
An M15 close back above ema20 (1.1088) and the 1.1095 lower high would break the lower-high chain
Failure to hold the 1.1075 spike low exposes the 1.1071 pre-London low and the 1.1066 Asian low
A move back above the 1.1102 London high would negate the rejection
Fed speakers through NY hours and Lagarde at 19:30 UTC are further event risk
13:01 UTC
Intraday pullback after London rally, momentum neutral · RSI 48 · price 1.10883
Lower highs and lower lows since the 1.1102 session high; London leg retraced past 61.8%.
London lifted EURUSD from the 1.1071 london low through the Asian high to a 1.1102 session high, with RSI(14) at 72. Price rejected there and has printed a lower high at 1.1095 and a 1.1080 session low into the London-NY transition, as USD steadies off post-CPI highs. Price now sits just under a flat ema20/50 at 1.10891, with RSI 47.9 and ATR 5.5 pips.
Support: 1.10796, 1.10705, 1.10661
Resistance: 1.10891, 1.10952, 1.11024
What it said to watch
US Initial Jobless Claims in 29 min (13:30 UTC), with Fed speakers from 14:00 UTC, could break the current lower-high sequence
M15 close back above the ema20/50 at 1.10891 and the 1.10952 lower high negates the pullback read
Failure to hold the 1.10796 session low exposes the 1.10705 london low and the 1.10661 asian low
Lagarde at 19:30 UTC is the high-impact EUR risk later in the NY session
12:46 UTC
Pullback from London high, lower highs forming · RSI 43 · price 1.10857
Lower-high/lower-low chain since the 1.1102 London high; price back inside the Asian range.
London lifted EURUSD off the 1.1066 asia low, the 18-month low set on hawkish Fed repricing, to a 1.1102 london high, a false break of the Asian range top, before rejection above 1.1100 left a lower high at 1.1095 and a 1.1080 session low near the 61.8% fib. Price sits below the ema cluster at 1.1089 with RSI(14) at 42.9, down from a 72.4 peak; ATR(14) is 5.6 pips.
Support: 1.1080, 1.10705, 1.10661
Resistance: 1.10893, 1.10952, 1.11024
What it said to watch
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and Fedspeak from 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
An M15 close back above the ema cluster and the 1.1095 lower high negates the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 1.1080 session low exposes the 1.1071 london base and the 1.1066 asia low
Lagarde speech at 19:30 UTC is the high-impact EUR event risk later in NY hours
12:31 UTC
Pullback within intraday rebound · RSI 44 · price 1.10847
Lower highs from 1.1102 session high, testing 50% retrace.
The dollar's European-hours pullback lifted EUR/USD from the 1.1066 18-month low to a 1.1102 session high in London. A false break of 1.1100 was rejected there. Price has since slid to the 1.1085 swing low at the 50% fib. It sits below ema20 (1.1090) and ema50, RSI(14) has cooled to 44 from 72, and ATR(14) is 5.5 pips.
Support: 1.1085, 1.1070, 1.1066
Resistance: 1.10899, 1.10952, 1.11024
What it said to watch
Close below the 1.1085 swing low opens the 1.1070 pre-ldn low, then the 18m low at 1.1066
Reclaim of ema20 at 1.1090 and the 1.1095 lower high would break the lower-highs sequence
US Initial Claims at 13:30 UTC (in about 59 min) and Fedspeak from 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lagarde at 19:30 UTC is the high-impact EUR risk; the 1.1102 session high is the upper reference into it
London higher low at 1.10705, session high rejected, compressing near flat EMAs.
London rebounded from the 1.10705 London low, after the Asia low at 1.10661 held. The rally poked above 1.1100 to a 1.11024 session high and was rejected as the USD steadied. The pullback held the 1.10854 swing low near the 50% of the London leg fib. Price is now pinned between a flat EMA20 (1.10904) and EMA50 (1.10895), with RSI(14) cooled from 72.4 to 50.8 and ATR(14) at 5.5 pips into the London-NY transition.
Support: 1.10854, 1.10705, 1.10661
Resistance: 1.10952, 1.11024
What it said to watch
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC (74 min) could break the compression at the NY open
M15 close above the 1.10952 lower high reopens the 1.11024 session high
Failure to hold the 1.10854 swing low breaks the London HL line and exposes the 1.10705 London low, then the 1.10661 Asia low
Lagarde at 19:30 UTC is the high-impact risk for the session
Higher low at 1.1085 after a rejection at the 1.1102 session high.
The London session lifted EUR/USD off the 1.1071 london low to a 1.1102 session high, briefly clearing the Asian range top before a rejection. The pullback set a swing low at 1.1085, near the 50% retrace of the london leg, which keeps the london hl line intact. RSI(14) has cooled from 72 to 54, and price holds just above the ema20 (1.1090) and ema50 heading toward the NY open.
Support: 1.10904, 1.10854, 1.10705
Resistance: 1.11024, 1.1110
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1085 swing low breaks the london hl and puts the 1.1071 london low back in play
Close above the 1.1102 session high reopens the 1.1110 pivot (former support)
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC (f/c 195K) and Fed speakers from 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lagarde at 19:30 UTC is the high-impact EUR risk later in the day
Higher low at 1.1070 held; London high 1.1102 rejected, now mid-retracement.
After the hawkish Fed repricing drove an Asia-session 18m low at 1.1066, London rallied from the 1.1070 higher low through the 1.1100 figure. Rejection at the 1.1102 London high has since pulled price back to a 1.1088 swing low, with RSI(14) cooling from 72 to 51. The close sits just below ema20 (1.1090) and just above ema50 (1.1089), near the 50% fib of the London leg.
Support: 1.10877, 1.10705, 1.10661
Resistance: 1.10903, 1.11024
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.1102 London high would cancel the false break above 1.1100
Failure to hold the 1.1088 swing low opens the 61.8% fib near 1.1083, then the 1.1070 higher low
Loss of the 1.1070 higher low puts the 18m low at 1.1066 back in play
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC (f/c 195K) and Fedspeak from 14:00 UTC could shift this read
Lagarde at 19:30 UTC is the high-impact event risk for EUR
London higher-low rally rejected at 1.1100, pulling back into the range.
London lifted EUR/USD from the 1.1070 London low to a 1.1102 session high, but supply capped it just above 1.1100. Price has slipped back to the 38.2% fib near 1.1090, below the ema20 and EMA50, with RSI(14) cooling from 72 to 50 and ATR(14) at 5.2 pips. The 1.1066 Asia low remains the 18-month floor set after the hawkish Fed repricing.
Support: 1.10846, 1.10705, 1.10661
Resistance: 1.10903, 1.11024
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1085 swing low (50% fib) exposes the 1.1070 London low and the 1.1066 Asia low
Reclaiming the ema20 at 1.1090 and a close above the 1.1102 session high would invalidate the rejection read
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and Fedspeak from 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
ECB President Lagarde at 19:30 UTC is the high-impact EUR risk later in the NY session
False break above the Asian high at 1.1100, pullback onto the EMAs.
After the Asia session low at 1.1066 and a London low at 1.1071, London lifted the pair through the Asian range high at 1.1100 to a 1.1102 session high, then saw a rejection back to 1.1094. That move cooled RSI from 72.4 to 57.7. Price now sits just above the ema cluster at 1.1090, which lines up with the 38.2% of the London leg. The broader USD bid from the post-CPI repricing keeps the bounce well short of yesterday's 1.1115 breakdown zone; ATR is 5.2 pips.
Support: 1.1090, 1.10705, 1.10661
Resistance: 1.11024, 1.1115
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 1.1102 session high negates the false-break read and puts the 1.1115 breakdown area in play
Failure to hold the 1.1090 ema cluster (38.2% of the London leg) exposes the 1.1071 london low, then the 1.1066 asia low
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and Fed speakers from 14:00 UTC could reset the intraday range
Lagarde at 19:30 UTC is the high-impact EUR event for today
11:01 UTC
Intraday uptrend from London open, stalling at 1.1100 · RSI 63 · price 1.10965
London higher-low chain; false break of 1.1100 at the session high.
The London rally lifted EUR/USD from the 1.1071 London low, about 36 pips off the overnight 1.1066 18-month low, back above both EMAs. It poked through 1.1100 to a 1.1102 session high before the 10:45 bar closed back at 1.1097. RSI(14) cooled from 72.4 to 63.1 on that rejection as EUR steadies amid crowded Fed-ECB divergence shorts. ATR(14) is 5.2 pips.
Support: 1.10901, 1.10705, 1.10661
Resistance: 1.11024, 1.11393
What it said to watch
A close back above the 1.1102 session high negates the false break and opens the 1.1139 prior high from yesterday's pre-drop levels
A break of the London rising line and the ema20 at 1.1090 exposes the 1.1071 London low, then the 1.1066 18-month low
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC (f/c 195K) and Fed's Hammack/Barr afterwards could materially shift this read
ECB's Vujčić at 15:30 UTC and Lagarde at 19:30 UTC are the EUR-side swing risk later in NY hours
10:46 UTC
Intraday recovery, stretched into the 1.1100 area · RSI 72 · price 1.11019
Higher lows from 1.1066 since Asia, London testing the Asian range high.
London has lifted EURUSD from the 1.1071 higher low to the Asian high near 1.1100. That puts price at the 50% retrace of the 24h decline from 1.1139 to the 1.1066 18-month low, with RSI(14) overbought at 72.4. EMA20 has just crossed above EMA50, and the recovery sits on the London trendline as short-covering flows into the Lagarde and US data slate.
Support: 1.11003, 1.10893, 1.10705
Resistance: 1.1115, 1.11393
What it said to watch
Close back below the 1.1100 asian high marks the breakout as a false break
M15 close above the 1.1115 breakdown level, where yesterday's selloff accelerated, extends the retrace toward the 1.1139 window high
Loss of the ema20 at 1.1089 and the London trendline reopens the 1.1071 higher low
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and Fedspeak from early NY could shift this read
Lagarde at 19:30 UTC is the session's high-impact EUR risk
London higher-high/higher-low chain pressing the Asian range high.
Mid-London, EURUSD has built a higher-high/higher-low chain off the 1.1071 higher low and is back at the Asian high at 1.1100, after the overnight dip to the 1.1066 Asian low, the 18-month low. The USD is trimming post-CPI gains in European trade. Price sits above both EMAs with RSI(14) at 66.9, and ATR(14) has compressed to 5.1 pips as price presses the range top.
Support: 1.1088, 1.1071, 1.1066
Resistance: 1.1100, 1.1127
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1100 Asian high clears the Asian range and opens yesterday's 1.1127 breakdown point
Break of the London trendline and the 1.1088 ema cluster would put the higher-low chain at risk
Failure to hold the 1.1071 higher low brings the 1.1066 Asian low back into play
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and Fedspeak from 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read; Lagarde speaks at 19:30 UTC
London higher-low chain from the Asian low, now coiling under the session high.
The London rally reversed the Asian-session slide to the 1.1066 asian low, an 18-month low on Fed-ECB divergence, as USD trimmed some post-CPI gains. Price sits above both EMAs in a tight 1.1090–1.1095 band below the 1.10953 london high, with RSI(14) at 64.6 and ATR 5.1 pips compressing. The 1.1100 overnight hi caps the move above that.
Support: 1.10903, 1.10881, 1.10661
Resistance: 1.10953, 1.11003
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.10953 london high puts the 1.1100 overnight hi in play
Break of the 1.10903 swing low and the higher-low trendline exposes ema50 at 1.10881
Failure to hold ema50 at 1.10881 reopens the path back toward the 1.1066 asian low
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and Fedspeak from 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lagarde at 19:30 UTC is the high-impact EUR risk later today
Higher-low chain since London open, pinned under the Asian range top.
London reversed the Asia-session flush to the 1.1066 18m low as USD trimmed its post-CPI gains, with higher lows carrying price to the 1.1095 London high, just under the 1.1099 Asian high and the broken 1.1100. Price is above both EMAs and consolidating below the London high. RSI(14) is 64.4 and has flattened, while ATR at 5.2 pips is compressing.
Support: 1.10903, 1.10878, 1.10661
Resistance: 1.10953, 1.10985
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 1.1099 Asian high would break the Asian range top and put the price back over 1.1100
A break of the 1.1090 London higher low, then the ema50 at 1.10878, would end the HL chain and expose the 38.2% retrace of the Asia-London leg near 1.1084
US jobless claims at 13:30 UTC and Fedspeak from 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read. Lagarde follows at 19:30 UTC.
09:46 UTC
Intraday uptrend off the lows, momentum firm · RSI 65 · price 1.1094
London HH/HL chain retesting the Asian shelf below 1.1100.
After the Asia-session slide to the 18m low at 1.1066, London has built higher lows from the 1.1071 london low into a 1.1095 london high, retesting the old 1.1091–1.1098 shelf just under the 1.1100 asian high. RSI(14) has climbed from 38.7 to 64.8, price holds above the ema20 and ema50, and ATR(14) sits near 5.4 pips. The bounce matches the digest's read of the dollar giving back early gains in Europe after the hot US CPI.
Support: 1.10876, 1.10705, 1.10661
Resistance: 1.10953, 1.11003, 1.1115
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1100 asian high opens the 1.1115 breakdown area from Wednesday's drop
Repeated rejection at the 1.1095 london high, with a loss of the london trend line, would turn the bounce into a lower-high
Break below the ema50 near 1.1088 and then the 1.1071 london low puts the 1.1066 18m low back in play
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC (f/c 195K) and Fed speakers from 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
ECB's Vujčić at 15:30 UTC and Lagarde at 19:30 UTC are the EUR-side risk
09:31 UTC
Intraday uptrend off the low, testing overhead · RSI 65 · price 1.10939
Higher lows from 1.1066; London rally into the 1.1095–1.1100 breakdown area.
London extended the rebound from the 1.1066 asian low, the 18-month low, through both EMAs to a 1.1095 session high. The higher low at 1.1070 is intact and the dollar is giving back early gains. Price is now retesting the 1.1095–1.1100 area under the asian high where the overnight breakdown began; RSI(14) is at 64.8 and ATR is 5.5 pips.
Support: 1.10873, 1.10705, 1.10661
Resistance: 1.10953, 1.11003
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.1100 asian high clears the breakdown zone and extends the London rally fib leg
Rejection at the 1.1095 session high with a close back below ema50 at 1.1087 shifts focus to the higher low at 1.1070
Loss of the higher low line, then the 1.1066 asian low, resumes the lower-low sequence
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC (f/c 195K) and Vujčić at 15:30 UTC could materially shift this read
09:16 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher lows since London open · RSI 62 · price 1.10919
HL chain off 1.10705, still inside Asian range below 1.11003.
London built a higher-low chain off the 1.10705 London low, lifting EUR/USD from the 1.1066 overnight low back into the 1.1090s as the dollar gave back early gains. Price sits above the ema20 and ema50 with RSI(14) at 61.9. The 1.10953 London high and 1.11003 Asian high cap the move.
Support: 1.1087, 1.10846, 1.10705
Resistance: 1.10953, 1.11003
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.11003 Asian high breaks the overnight range and puts the 1.1100 breakdown level back in play
Loss of the 1.10846 swing low breaks the London trendline; a close back under the ema50 at 1.1087 returns focus to the 1.10705 London low
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC (f/c 195K) and Fed speakers from 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain off the pre-London low; Asian range top broken, price pressing the session high.
EURUSD has lifted roughly 23 pips off the 1.1070 session low into the London open. It broke the 1.1083 Asian range top and reclaimed the ema20 (1.1083) and ema50 (1.1087). Price is now testing the 1.1093 session high just under the 1.1099 prior high and the 1.1100 round number, the old range floor lost after the hot US CPI. RSI(14) is rising at 63.6, and ATR at 5.8 pips points to modest bar ranges.
Support: 1.10868, 1.10829, 1.10705
Resistance: 1.10934, 1.10986, 1.1100
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1099 prior high and 1.1100 round number would carry the London rally back into the broken range floor
Slip back below the ema50 at 1.1087 and ema20 at 1.1083 would put the 1.1070 session low back in play
Repeated rejection at the 1.1093 session high would mark the pop as a corrective bounce inside the post-CPI downtrend
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC, Fed speakers from 14:00 UTC and Lagarde at 19:30 UTC could materially shift this read
08:46 UTC
Intraday uptrend off the London low · RSI 62 · price 1.10895
HH/HL chain since London open, capped below the Asia high.
London has lifted about 23 pips off a 1.1071 london low. The move printed higher highs to a 1.1093 session high and put price back above both the ema20 and the ema50, with RSI(14) at 61.7 and not stretched. The bounce runs into the 1.1090-1.1110 zone flagged as short-covering territory after the hot US CPI break below 1.1100, with the 1.1100 asia high directly overhead.
Support: 1.10866, 1.10818, 1.10705
Resistance: 1.10933, 1.11003
What it said to watch
ECB Economic Bulletin at 09:00 UTC (14 min) could jolt the current London leg
M15 close above the 1.1100 asia high extends the HH chain toward the 1.1110 ex-range floor
Loss of the ema50 at 1.1087 and the london trend line puts the 50% of the london leg near the ema20 (1.1082) in play
Break of the 1.1071 london low invalidates the London HH/HL structure
US Jobless Claims 13:30 UTC and Lagarde 19:30 UTC are the larger risks to this read
08:31 UTC
Intraday recovery inside a downtrend; higher lows since Asia · RSI 58 · price 1.10889
London leg up from 1.1071, trading mid-to-upper Asian range below 1.1100.
London open lifted EURUSD off the 1.1071 pre-London low to a 1.1092 session high. That retraced part of the USD-driven slide after the hot US CPI and hawkish Fed talk, and the pair now sits in the upper half of the 1.1066–1.1100 Asian range with higher lows from the Asian low. Price holds above the ema20 and ema50 with RSI(14) at 58 and rising, and ATR of 5.8 pips is steady. The 1.1092–1.1100 zone, the session high and asian high, capped yesterday's NY consolidation.
Support: 1.10864, 1.10705, 1.10661
Resistance: 1.10915, 1.11003
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1100 asian high takes price out of the Asian range and invalidates the range read
Failure to hold the ema50 at 1.1086 puts the London leg's retracement and the 1.1071 pre-ldn low back in focus
A break of the higher lows line and the 1.1066 asian low would resume the lower-low sequence
ECB Economic Bulletin at 09:00 UTC (29 min) and US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher low at 1.10705 off the 1.10661 Asia low; London broke above the Asian range.
After the hot-CPI/Fed-driven slide below 1.1100 printed an Asia low at 1.10661, a higher low at 1.10705 held and the London open lifted price through the Asian range top to a 1.10915 session high, capped near the 78.6% fib of the overnight drop. Price is holding just above a flattening ema50 at 1.10864 with RSI(14) at 58.2 and ATR(14) widening to 5.9 pips.
Support: 1.10864, 1.10705, 1.10661
Resistance: 1.10915, 1.1100
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the ema50 at 1.10864 puts the London breakout at risk
Failure to hold the 1.10705 higher low reopens the 1.10661 Asia low
Close above the 1.10915 session high opens the 1.1100 psych level
ECB Economic Bulletin in ~45 min and US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
08:01 UTC
Downtrend, intraday bounce in play · RSI 55 · price 1.10851
Higher low off Asian low, retesting ema50.
London open extended the bounce from the 1.1066 asian low, and price is now testing the ema50 at 1.1086, which lines up with the 61.8% of the overnight drop fib. The higher low at 1.1071 and the reclaimed ema20 at 1.1080 keep the recovery intact. RSI has climbed from 27.6 to 55.3, but the wider tone stays heavy after the break below 1.1100 on hot US CPI and Fed 50bp talk.
Support: 1.10795, 1.10705, 1.10661
Resistance: 1.10863, 1.1093, 1.1000
What it said to watch
A close above the ema50 at 1.1086 opens the prior shelf at 1.1093, then the 1.1100 round number
Rejection at the ema50/61.8% drop fib, then a break of the rising trendline and the 1.1071 higher low, would re-expose the 1.1066 asian low
ECB Economic Bulletin in ~1h; US Initial Jobless Claims and Fed speakers later today could shift this read
Lagarde at 19:30 UTC is the session's main event risk for EUR
07:46 UTC
Downtrend, corrective bounce in early London · RSI 51 · price 1.10827
Higher low at 1.1070 off the 1.1066 Asia low, capped near 1.1083.
EUR/USD made an Asia low at 1.1066 as the post-CPI dollar bid extended the slide, and early London has printed a higher low at 1.1070. Price is back above the ema20 and pressing the 50% fib of the Asia drop at 1.1083, with the ema50 at 1.1086 overhead. RSI(14) has recovered from 28 to 51 and ATR is steady near 5.7 pips.
Support: 1.10789, 1.10705, 1.10661
Resistance: 1.10832, 1.10864, 1.1100
What it said to watch
M15 close above the ema50 at 1.1086 opens 1.1095–1.1100, the broken base of the prior range
Failure to hold the higher low at 1.1070 puts the 1.1066 asia low back in play
ECB Economic Bulletin at 09:00 UTC could shift this read; jobless claims at 13:30 UTC and Lagarde at 19:30 UTC are the larger risks
07:31 UTC
Downtrend, pausing after Asia leg lower · RSI 43 · price 1.10754
Lower highs; Asia break of the prior NY low, bounce capped, coiling 1.1071–1.1083.
Asia session took out the prior NY low near 1.1082 and printed a 1.1066 asia low, with USD still bid on the hot CPI and Fed 50 bp talk. The bounce high at 1.1083 retested that broken level and stalled at the 50% fib of the 1.1100–1.1066 drop. Price is coiling into the London open between a 1.1071 swing low and the ema20 at 1.1079, under the ema50 at 1.1087; RSI(14) has recovered to 43 from sub-30 and ATR(14) has compressed to 5.5 pips.
Support: 1.10705, 1.10661
Resistance: 1.10787, 1.10829, 1.10866
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1083 bounce high and the ema50 at 1.1087 negates the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 1.1071 swing low exposes the 1.1066 asia low; a break there extends the lower-low chain
ECB Economic Bulletin at 09:00 UTC (in ~90 min) could break the current coil
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and the Fed speakers that follow could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 1.1083 against rising lows from 1.1066; tight coil into London open.
EUR/USD broke below the Asian range during Asia hours and hit a 1.1066 session low as the post-CPI USD bid and Waller's 50 bp talk extended the selling. RSI(14) has recovered from 27.6 to 44. The bounce stalled at the 1.1083 swing high near the 50% Asia drop fib, and early London is coiling between the 1.1070 higher low and the ema20 at 1.1079.
Support: 1.10705, 1.10661
Resistance: 1.1079, 1.10829, 1.10871
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1083 swing high would break the lower-high sequence and expose the ema50 at 1.1087
Loss of the 1.1070 higher low and the rising lows line puts the 1.1066 session low back in play
ECB Economic Bulletin in ~1h45 and US jobless claims at 13:30 UTC could shift this read
ATR(14) near 5.4 pips; a bar range well above that out of the coil marks the break
07:01 UTC
Downtrend, Asia bounce stalling · RSI 39 · price 1.10727
Lower highs from 1.1100; holding above Asian low 1.1066 into London open.
London opens with EURUSD at 1.1073, still heavy after the Asia-session drop from 1.1098 to the 1.1066 Asian low, extending the slide driven by Fed 50bp repricing after the hot US CPI. The bounce met rejection at the 1.1083 swing high, near the 50% fib of the Asia drop. Price is now below the ema20 (1.1079) and ema50 (1.1088). RSI(14) at 38.7 has lifted off its sub-30 lows, and ATR is 5.3 pips.
Support: 1.10705, 1.10661, 1.1050
Resistance: 1.10793, 1.10829, 1.10875
What it said to watch
Close back above the 1.1083 swing high breaks the lower-high trendline and reclaims the ema20
Failure to hold the 1.1071 swing low and 1.1066 asian low resumes the downtrend toward the 1.1050 round number
ECB Economic Bulletin 09:00 UTC, US Jobless Claims 13:30 UTC and Fed speakers from 14:00 UTC could shift this read
Lower highs from 1.1100; Asian low 1.1066 held twice, price capped at 1.1083.
The Asia-session drop from 1.1100 to the 1.1066 Asian low extended the USD bid on Waller's 50bp talk. The rebound stalled at the 1.1083 rebound high, near the 50% fib of that drop. Price is back on the 1.1075 micro floor below the ema20 (1.1080) and ema50 (1.1088) ahead of London open, with RSI(14) back to 41 from sub-30 and ATR(14) compressing to 5.2 pips.
Support: 1.10748, 1.10661
Resistance: 1.1080, 1.10829, 1.10881
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.1075 micro floor puts the 1.1066 Asian low back in play; a break there extends the lower-low chain
M15 close above the 1.1083 rebound high and the ema50 at 1.1088 breaks the lower-high sequence, with the 1.1100 broken floor above
ECB Economic Bulletin at 09:00 UTC, with US Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and Fed speakers from 14:00 UTC, could shift this read
Higher lows off 1.1066 Asia low, capped at old NY low.
Asia broke yesterday's old NY low near 1.1082 with a 34-pip drop from 1.1100 to the 1.1066 Asia low, extending the hot-CPI and Waller-driven USD bid. Price has since built higher lows and sits at the 38.2% retracement of that Asia drop, with supply rejecting three tests of the old NY low just under the 50% level. Price holds below ema20 (1.10805) and ema50 (1.10887), RSI(14) has recovered to 45 from sub-28, and ATR(14) has compressed to 5.2 pips ahead of London open.
Support: 1.10749, 1.10661
Resistance: 1.10805, 1.10825, 1.10887
What it said to watch
M15 close above the old NY low at 1.1083 (50% of the Asia drop) opens ema50 at 1.1089
Loss of the 1.1075 higher low breaks the rising support and exposes the 1.1066 Asia low
ECB Economic Bulletin at 09:00 UTC, early in London, could shift this read
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC (f/c 195K) feed 50bp Fed pricing, the main driver
Asian range broken lower, recovery capped at 50% retrace.
Asia session broke below the overnight 1.1082–1.1100 range on the post-CPI USD bid and printed 1.1066 twice. The bounce stalled at the 1.1083 bounce high, the 50% fib of the asia high-low move, and the last closed bar slipped back under the ema20 at 1.1081. RSI(14) is 42 after bottoming at 27.6 and ATR is 5.4 pips, with London open next.
Support: 1.10716, 1.10661
Resistance: 1.10807, 1.10829, 1.11003
What it said to watch
A close back above the 1.1083 bounce high and the 1.1089 ema50 reopens the 1.1100 asia high
Failure to hold the 1.1072 higher low exposes the 1.1066 asia low; a break there confirms a lower-low
ECB Economic Bulletin at 09:00 UTC, then US jobless claims at 13:30 UTC and Lagarde at 19:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
06:01 UTC
Downtrend, Asia bounce stalling at the broken floor · RSI 48 · price 1.10805
Higher lows off 1.1066 double bottom, capped at the 1.1082 prior low.
The CPI-driven USD bid and Waller's 50bp talk sent EUR/USD off the 1.1100 asia high to a 1.1066 double bottom during the Asia session. Price has since climbed a rising trendline of higher lows and is retesting the broken 1.1082 prior low from below, near the 50% retrace. It is sitting just above the ema20 at 1.1081 and below the ema50 at 1.1090, with RSI(14) back to 48 from sub-30.
Support: 1.10811, 1.10759, 1.10661
Resistance: 1.1083, 1.10896, 1.11003
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1083 prior low and the 50% retrace brings the ema50 at 1.1090 and the 1.1100 asia high into view
Break of the rising trendline and the 1.1076 higher low exposes the 1.1066 double bottom
ECB Economic Bulletin at 09:00 UTC is the first scheduled risk after London open
US jobless claims at 13:30 UTC and Fed's Hammack at 14:00 UTC could shift the read on the 50bp narrative
Higher lows off the Asian low, capped at the 1.1082 prior low.
EURUSD dropped to the 1.1066 asian low as the post-CPI, Fed-hike USD bid extended, with RSI(14) bottoming near 28. A chain of higher lows has since carried price back to the 1.1082 prior low, which is also 50% of the Asian drop, and that level is capping for now. Price sits just under the flattening ema20 (1.1081) and below the falling ema50 (1.1090), with ATR(14) at 5.5 pips and London open about an hour out.
Support: 1.10759, 1.10661
Resistance: 1.1082, 1.10899, 1.11003
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1082 prior low and ema20 opens the ema50 at 1.1090, then the 1.1100 asian high
Break of the 1.1076 higher low and its trendline exposes the 1.1066 asian low
ECB Economic Bulletin 09:00 UTC and US jobless claims 13:30 UTC could shift this read; Lagarde at 19:30 UTC is the larger event risk
Lower highs below 1.1100; broken 1.1082 prior low being retested from below.
Asia broke yesterday's 1.1082 prior low and printed a 1.1066 session low twice, extending the post-CPI USD bid below 1.1100. The bounce is now retesting 1.1081 from below, where ema20 also sits and the 50% of the Asia drop fib caps price. RSI(14) has recovered to 41.2 from 27.6, and ATR is easing to 5.5 pips.
Support: 1.1066, 1.1050
Resistance: 1.1081, 1.1090, 1.1100
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1081 prior low and ema20 turns the retest into a reclaim and opens the ema50 at 1.1090
Rejection at 1.1081 followed by a break of the 1.1066 session low extends the lower-low chain toward round number 1.1050
Asia high at 1.1100 stays the ceiling of this leg; it would need to be cleared to neutralise the downtrend read
ECB Economic Bulletin at 09:00 UTC in London hours, US jobless claims at 13:30 UTC and Lagarde at 19:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 1.1100; higher lows off 1.1066 session low, now retesting broken prior low.
Asia broke yesterday's NY prior low at 1.1082 to a 1.1066 session low as the USD bid from hot US CPI and Fed hike bets extended. The rebound since has printed higher lows and is now retesting 1.1082 from below, where the prior low, ema20 at 1.1082 and the 50% fib of the Asia drop converge. RSI(14) has recovered to 45.8 from 27.6 and ATR has eased to 5.5 pips.
Support: 1.10764, 1.10661
Resistance: 1.10822, 1.10908, 1.11003
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1082 prior low turns the retest into a recovery toward the ema50 at 1.1091
A break of the 1.1076 swing low snaps the rebound line and reopens the 1.1066 session low
Only a move back above the 1.1100 asia high would negate the lower-high sequence
London open and the ECB Economic Bulletin at 09:00 UTC could shift this read
Asian range broken lower to 1.1066; higher lows since, capped at prior NY low.
Asia broke the 1.1091–1.1100 range and yesterday's NY low near 1.1082 around 02:30 UTC as the USD bid extended on Waller's 50 bp hike talk. Two prints at the 1.1066 asia low then held. The bounce has formed rising lows but is capped at the ema20 (1.1082) inside the 38.2–50% fib of the Asia drop, with RSI(14) back to 41 from sub-30.
Support: 1.10716, 1.10661
Resistance: 1.10817, 1.10912, 1.11003
What it said to watch
M15 close above the ema20 at 1.1082 retakes the broken NY low and opens the ema50 at 1.1091
Asian high at 1.1100 is the line where the range break would be fully reversed
Loss of the 1.1072 higher low breaks the rising lows and puts the 1.1066 asia low back in play
ECB Economic Bulletin 09:00 UTC near the London open could shift this read; Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and Lagarde at 19:30 UTC follow
Lower highs; Asia double low at 1.1066, rising intraday lows.
The USD bid after Waller's December-hike comments carried the selling into Asia: the 02:30 UTC leg broke yesterday's NY low near 1.1082 and printed a double low at the 1.1066 asia low, with RSI(14) dipping to 27.6. Late Asia shows higher lows from 1.10716 and a recovery to 1.1079, the 38.2% level on the asia drop fib, still below a falling ema20 at 1.10821 and ema50 at 1.10918.
Support: 1.10716, 1.10661
Resistance: 1.10821, 1.10918, 1.10985
What it said to watch
M15 close above the ema20 at 1.10821, near the 50% asia drop fib, would turn the late-Asia bounce into a retest of the broken NY low
Failure to hold the 1.10716 higher low reopens the 1.10661 asia low
A move back above the ema50 at 1.10918 toward the 1.10985 asian high would break the lower-high chain
London open and the ECB Economic Bulletin at 09:00 UTC could set the next leg; US jobless claims 13:30 UTC and Fed speakers follow
04:31 UTC
Downtrend, pausing after Asia break · RSI 38 · price 1.10758
Lower highs; tight base above 1.1066 session low.
In the Asia session, price broke below the 1.1082 floor that held through the NY session, extending the USD bid after Waller's 50 bps talk. It printed a 1.1066 session low twice. Price is now basing in a 12-pip box with a higher low at 1.1073, capped by the 38.2% fib of the 1.1100–1.1066 drop near 1.1079 and below a falling ema20 at 1.10825. RSI(14) has recovered to 37.5 from a 27.6 trough.
Support: 1.10731, 1.10661
Resistance: 1.10792, 1.10825, 1.10923
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1066 session low resumes the lower-low sequence
Loss of the 1.1073 higher low puts the session low back in play
Close above the fib 38.2 at 1.1079 and the ema20 at 1.10825 would neutralise the Asia break; the ema50 at 1.10923 sits above
ECB Economic Bulletin at 09:00 UTC, US Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and Lagarde at 19:30 UTC could materially shift this read
04:16 UTC
Downtrend, pausing after Asian breakdown · RSI 36 · price 1.10747
Lower highs and lower lows; tight 1.1066–1.1079 range after the break.
The 1.1091–1.1100 Asian range gave way at 02:30 UTC as the post-CPI dollar bid extended. Price broke through yesterday's 1.1082 prior low to a 1.1066 session low, which has held twice since. Price now sits in a 1.1066–1.1079 range below the ema20 (1.1083), and the 38.2% fib of the 1.1100–1.1066 drop lines up with the range top; RSI(14) has recovered to 35.7 from 27.6 and ATR has expanded to 5.9 pips.
Support: 1.1066, 1.1050
Resistance: 1.1079, 1.1082, 1.1100
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1079 range top and 1.1082 prior low reclaims broken support and the ema20, turning the read neutral
Failure to hold the 1.1066 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.1050 round number
Recovery to the 1.1100 asian high would negate the breakdown
London open and the ECB Economic Bulletin at 09:00 UTC could reset the session range
04:01 UTC
Downtrend, pausing after Asian range break · RSI 35 · price 1.10746
Lower lows; tight 1.1066–1.1079 base under broken support.
Late in the Asia session, price broke the 1.1082 double low set during NY hours and again at rollover. That extended the USD bid from the hot CPI and Waller's 50bp talk to a 1.1066 session low. Price is now basing at 1.1066–1.1079, below a falling EMA20 (1.1084), with RSI(14) back at 35 from a 27.6 trough and ATR expanding to 6.1 pips.
Support: 1.10661, 1.1050
Resistance: 1.1079, 1.10822, 1.11003
What it said to watch
A close back above the 1.1082 broken low and the 38.2% fib at 1.1079 would mark the range break as a false break
Failure to hold the 1.1066 session low exposes the 1.1050 psych level
Only a reclaim of the 1.1100 asian high negates the lower-low sequence
London open and the ECB Economic Bulletin at 09:00 UTC could expand the range; US jobless claims at 13:30 UTC and Lagarde at 19:30 UTC are the bigger risk
The post-CPI and Waller USD bid carried into Asia. Price broke the 1.1082 NY low and printed a 1.1066 session low twice, with RSI(14) firming from 27.6 to 31.4 on the second test. Bounces are capped at the 1.1079 bounce high, below the ema20 at 1.1085, and ATR has expanded to 6.2 pips.
Support: 1.10661, 1.1050
Resistance: 1.10788, 1.1082, 1.10851
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.1066 session low confirms a lower low and exposes the 1.1050 round number
M15 close back above the 1.1082 ny low and the ema20 at 1.1085 negates the Asian breakdown
Price held below the 38.2% level of the Asian drop fib keeps the drop intact
London open and ECB Economic Bulletin at 09:00 UTC could reset the session range
Lower highs through Asia; early-Asian range and NY low broken.
Mid-Asia, price broke below the early-Asian range and yesterday's 1.1082 NY low. The post-CPI USD bid carried the Asia drop to the 1.1066 Asia low, which held twice. RSI(14) has recovered to 33.7 from 27.6, price sits below both EMAs and ATR(14) has widened to 6.4 pips.
Support: 1.10661, 1.1050
Resistance: 1.10819, 1.10865, 1.11003
What it said to watch
A close back above the 1.1082 NY low and the ema20 at 1.10865 would turn the break into a false break
Failure to hold the 1.1066 Asia low exposes 1.1050 psych
Asia high at 1.1100 tops the Asia drop fib; that level was the old range floor
ECB Economic Bulletin at 09:00 UTC lands after London open; Lagarde at 19:30 UTC is the larger risk to this read
03:16 UTC
Downtrend, fresh leg lower in Asia · RSI 28 · price 1.10696
Asian range broken to downside, lower low under prior NY low.
Asia broke below its 1.1091–1.1100 range at 02:15 UTC and through the 1.1082 prior low from NY hours, printing a 1.1067 session low as the post-CPI USD bid extends. RSI(14) is oversold at 27.6, ATR has expanded to 6.2 pips, and price holds below both EMAs with the ema20 at 1.1088 now rolling over.
Support: 1.10665, 1.1050
Resistance: 1.10822, 1.10877, 1.11003
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.1067 session low exposes the 1.1050 round number
A move back above the 1.1082 prior low and the ema20 at 1.1088 would mark the Asian break as a false break
M15 close back above the 1.1100 asian high invalidates the range break read
ECB Economic Bulletin at 09:00 UTC and US jobless claims at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Asian range broken to the downside, prior lows swept, lower low at 1.1067.
Mid-Asia session, EURUSD broke the 1.1091–1.1100 Asian range and cut through the 1.1082 prior lows from NY hours to a session low at 1.1067, extending the post-CPI USD bid. RSI(14) at 28 is oversold and ATR(14) has widened to 6.3 pips. Price holds below both the ema20 at 1.1089 and the ema50 at 1.1097, with the Asian drop fib now framing any bounce.
Support: 1.10665, 1.1050
Resistance: 1.10822, 1.10894, 1.11003
What it said to watch
Reclaim of the 1.1082 prior lows would mark the break as a false break.
Failure to hold the 1.1067 session low exposes the 1.1050 round number.
A return above the ema20 at 1.1089 and the 1.1100 asian high would undo the Asian drop.
ECB Economic Bulletin at 09:00 UTC, US jobless claims at 13:30 UTC and Lagarde at 19:30 UTC could materially shift this read.
02:46 UTC
Downtrend, impulsive leg late Asia · RSI 30 · price 1.10754
Asian range broken lower, fresh session low at 1.1067, small bounce under broken prior low.
Late in the Asia session, price broke out of the 1.1082–1.1100 range and through the 1.1082 prior low from NY. It printed a 1.1067 session low, with USD still bid on Fed hike pricing after the hot US CPI. RSI(14) is oversold at 29.6, ATR(14) has expanded to 6.1 pips and price is below both EMAs, with the bounce off the low so far capped under the broken prior low.
Support: 1.10665, 1.1050
Resistance: 1.1082, 1.10912, 1.11003
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 1.1082 prior low would turn the Asian-session break into a false break
Failure to hold the 1.1067 session low exposes the 1.1050 round number
The 38.2% retracement of the Asian drop sits at 1.1079; a reclaim of the ema20 at 1.1091 and the 1.1100 asian high would neutralise the downtrend read
London open (07:00 UTC) and the ECB Economic Bulletin (09:00 UTC) could shift this read; US jobless claims follow at 13:30 UTC
Yesterday's NY sell-off on hot-CPI Fed hike pricing ran to a 1.1082 day low, and Asia then held a 1.1091–1.1100 range with flat-to-lower Asian highs capped under the 38.2% retracement. The 02:15 UTC bar broke the asian low and printed a 1.1085 break low, leaving price below the ema20 (1.1093) and ema50 (1.1099), with RSI 40.6 and ATR expanding to 5 pips.
Support: 1.10846, 1.10819
Resistance: 1.10909, 1.1093, 1.11003
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.1091 asian low turns the range break into a false break
Failure to hold the 1.1082 day low marks a fresh lower-low; the 1.1085 break low is the first marker
Reclaim of the 1.1100 asian high, alongside the ema50, invalidates the downtrend read
ECB Economic Bulletin 09:00 UTC, US claims 13:30 UTC and Lagarde 19:30 UTC could materially shift this read
02:16 UTC
Downtrend, stalling in Asia · RSI 48 · price 1.10921
Post-sweep Asian range under the 1.1100 broken floor.
The USD bid after hot CPI and hawkish Fed remarks carried EURUSD from 1.1169 through the 1.1100 floor to a 1.1082 NY low. A marginal sweep of that day low at rollover snapped back to 1.1100, and mid-Asia is now ranging 1.1091–1.1100. Price sits below the ema20 at 1.1094 and below the ema50, which sits on the Asia high at 1.1100. RSI is neutral at 48 and ATR is compressed at 4.7 pips.
Support: 1.10909, 1.10819
Resistance: 1.10937, 1.11003, 1.1115
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1100 Asia high and ema50 reclaims the broken floor and opens the fib 38.2 at 1.1115
Failure to hold the 1.1091 Asia low exposes the 1.1082 day low again
A break below the 1.1082 day low resumes the downtrend
ECB Economic Bulletin at 09:00 UTC lands near London open and could set the session direction
Wednesday's NY-session slide through the 1.1100 floor came on the post-CPI USD bid. Late in the day, price swept marginally to a 1.10819 day low and reversed hard into the Asia open. Asia is now holding a 1.10909–1.11003 range above the ema20, with the asia high and the ema50 (1.11001) capping at the broken 1.1100 floor; RSI 53 is neutral and ATR is 4.6 pips.
Support: 1.10937, 1.10909, 1.10819
Resistance: 1.11003, 1.1105, 1.1111
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.11003 asia high and the ema50 puts price back above the broken 1.1100 floor, with the fib 38.2 at 1.1105 and the retrace 50% at 1.1111 next overhead
Loss of the 1.10937 ema20 and a break of the 1.10909 asia low, which also breaks the Asia higher lows line, returns focus to the 1.10819 day low
ECB Economic Bulletin at 09:00 UTC, early London, could shift the read; Lagarde at 19:30 UTC is the larger EUR risk
01:46 UTC
Downtrend paused, Asia ranging · RSI 54 · price 1.10957
Tight Asian range 1.1091–1.1100 after a swing-low sweep, below ema50.
Wednesday's London and NY selloff on hot US CPI follow-through took price through the 1.1100 range floor to a 1.1082 swing low. A late-session sweep of that low at 1.10819 reversed sharply into the Asia open. Price now holds a 1.1091–1.1100 Asian range, above the ema20 but capped at the asian high where the ema50 sits, with RSI(14) neutral at 53.6.
Support: 1.10935, 1.10909, 1.10819
Resistance: 1.11003, 1.11052
What it said to watch
Close above the 1.1100 asian high and ema50 opens the 38.2% fib of the NY selloff at 1.1105
Loss of the 1.1091 asian low puts the 1.1082 swing low back in play
London open is the first test of the Asian range; ECB Economic Bulletin at 09:00 UTC, with Lagarde later Thursday as the larger risk
ATR at 4.7 pips points to compressed Asia ranges ahead of London
01:31 UTC
Downtrend, pausing in Asia · RSI 49 · price 1.10924
Post-breakdown Asian range 1.1091–1.1098 below the broken 1.1100 floor.
The post-CPI dollar bid carried EURUSD through the 1.1100 floor in early NY hours, part of an ~88-pip decline from 1.1170 to the 1.1082 swing low, which was swept at rollover before a bounce stalled at 1.1100 and the ema50. Asia session is coiling between the 1.1091 asian low and the 1.1098 range top, with price just under ema20, RSI(14) neutral at 48.6 and ATR(14) compressed at 4.5 pips.
Support: 1.10909, 1.10819
Resistance: 1.10985, 1.11004
What it said to watch
A close above 1.1100 and the ema50 reclaims the broken floor and opens the 38.2% decline fib near 1.1115
Lower highs under the 1.1098 range top keep the Asian range capped
Loss of the 1.1091 asian low exposes the 1.1082 swing low again
London open break of the Asian range could set the session direction; ECB Economic Bulletin at 09:00 UTC
01:16 UTC
Downtrend paused, Asia bounce · RSI 55 · price 1.10976
Double bottom at 1.1082, price testing range top under ema50.
EURUSD lost 1.1100 during NY hours on the hot-CPI USD bid and printed a 1.1082 swing low twice. The rollover sweep of that low reversed into an Asia session bounce that now presses the 1.1099 range top just under the ema50 (1.1101). The asian low at 1.1091 and ema20 at 1.1093 sit beneath, RSI 54.6, ATR 4.5 pips.
Support: 1.10932, 1.10909, 1.10819
Resistance: 1.10986, 1.11007, 1.11305
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1099 range top and ema50 at 1.1101 completes the double bottom and opens the NY drop fib 38.2% near 1.1104, then the london low at 1.1131
Break below the 1.1091 asian low turns the bounce into a lower high and exposes the 1.1082 swing low
Repeated rejection at the range top keeps the NY drop structure intact
ECB Economic Bulletin at 09:00 UTC during London could shift this read
01:01 UTC
Downtrend, Asia bounce stalling · RSI 55 · price 1.10945
Lower highs after the 1.1082 swing-low sweep; tight Asian range.
Hot US CPI follow-through drove a 60-pip slide through 1.1100 during London-NY. A late-NY sweep of the 1.1082 swing low reversed at the Asia open and has retraced about a fifth of that drop (drop fib). Asia is holding a 1.1091–1.1100 range above the ema20 but under the ema50 and bounce high. RSI is 55.3 and ATR 4.6 pips.
Support: 1.10928, 1.10909, 1.10819
Resistance: 1.10986, 1.11009, 1.11305
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1101 ema50 and 1.1099 bounce high reopens the 1.1131 london low
Break of the 1.1091 asia low puts the 1.1082 swing low back in play
ECB Economic Bulletin at 09:00 UTC, then Jobless Claims and the Fedspeak slate, could shift this read
The hot US CPI and Fed-driven USD bid pushed EURUSD through the 1.1100 floor in NY to 1.1082. A late-NY sweep of that swing low at 1.10819 was rejected, and early Asia is holding a 1.1091–1.1100 range, with price on the ema20 (1.1092) and RSI(14) neutral at 48.6. The asian high at 1.1100 sits beside the ema50 (1.1101) and the 38.2% retracement of the NY drop, capping the bounce so far.
Support: 1.10924, 1.10909, 1.10819
Resistance: 1.11003, 1.1101, 1.11164
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1100 asian high and ema50 reopens the 1.1116 breakdown pivot
Loss of the 1.1091 asian low exposes the 1.1082 swing low; a close below it resumes the lower-low chain
ATR(14) at 4.5 pips shows Asia compression; the ECB Economic Bulletin at 09:00 UTC near London open can break the range
Tight consolidation under 1.1100 after a swept double low.
The NY selloff on post-CPI USD demand broke the 1.1100 range floor and bottomed at 1.1082. A late sweep of that double low at 1.1082 drew a quick bounce to 1.1100, and early Asia is now consolidating between ema20 (1.1092) and ema50 (1.1101), with RSI(14) neutral at 50.6 and ATR 4.6 pips.
Support: 1.10923, 1.10909, 1.10819
Resistance: 1.11003, 1.11014
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.1100 range floor and ema50 at 1.1101 puts the selloff fib 50% near 1.1110 in view
Break of the 1.1091 asia low exposes the 1.1082 double low; a close beneath it resumes the downtrend
US Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and the Thu Fedspeak slate could materially shift this read
Hawkish post-CPI USD bid drove a London-then-NY slide from the london low at 1.1131 to a day low at 1.1082. That low was tested twice, at 14:45 and 22:45 UTC, and a late-NY spike was rejected at the range top near 1.1100, where the 38.2% of the ny drop fib and EMA50 (1.1102) sit. Early Asia is holding just above the ema20 (1.1092), with RSI(14) neutral at 51 and ATR around 5 pips.
Support: 1.10922, 1.1082
Resistance: 1.1100, 1.11305
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.1100 range top and EMA50 completes the double-low base; 50% of the ny drop fib sits near 1.1110
Loss of the 1.1082 day low resumes the downtrend sequence
Slip back below ema20 at 1.1092 keeps price pinned in the lower half of the range
US claims (13:30 UTC) and Lagarde (19:30 UTC) later Thursday could materially shift this read
00:01 UTC
Downtrend paused, basing in a tight range · RSI 51 · price 1.10935
Post-breakdown range 1.1082–1.1100 after the NY slide; late-NY sweep of the low reclaimed.
Wednesday's NY session broke below 1.1100 on hot-CPI USD demand and bottomed at 1.1082. A thin late-NY dip swept that low, making it a double low, before a spike to 1.1100 stalled at the range top. Early Asia trades between ema20 (1.1092) underneath and ema50 (1.1102) overhead, with RSI(14) neutral at 51 and ATR(14) at 4.4 pips.
Support: 1.1092, 1.1082
Resistance: 1.1100, 1.1102
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1100 range top and ema50 at 1.1102 would put price back above the broken 1.1100 floor
A break of the 1.1082 double low resumes the lower-low sequence from the NY slide
Losing ema20 at 1.1092 puts price back in the lower half of the range
ECB Economic Bulletin 09:00 UTC and US jobless claims 13:30 UTC could break the Asian range