EUR/USD AI Live Scan, 15-minute chart, Wednesday, 11 November 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the EUR/USD 15-minute chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:46 UTC
Downtrend, basing after late bounce · RSI 53 · price 1.10949
Lower-low chain broken by a false break of the session low; capped at 1.1100.
The London-NY selloff took EURUSD out of the 1.1151–1.1170 Asian range and through 1.1100 as the post-CPI dollar bid extended, before NY hours settled into a tight 1.1082–1.1099 range. A false break of the 1.1082 session low reversed in a thin rollover spike that met rejection at the 1.1100 psych level. Price now holds just above the ema20 at 1.1092 and below the ema50 at 1.1102, with RSI(14) neutral at 52.6 and ATR(14) at 4.6 pips.
Support: 1.10917, 1.10819
Resistance: 1.1100, 1.11023
What it said to watch
M15 close above the ema50 at 1.1102 and the 1.1100 psych level would break the lower-high sequence and point to a base
Slip back below the ema20 at 1.1092 puts the 1.1082 session low back in play
Break under the 1.1082 session low resumes the London-NY selloff structure
London session ECB Bulletin at 09:00 UTC, then US claims at 13:30 UTC and Fed speakers from 14:00 UTC, could shift this read
23:31 UTC
Downtrend, pausing just under 1.1100 · RSI 52 · price 1.10948
Post-NY range 1.1085–1.1098; day-low sweep then Asia spike rejected at the broken 1.1100 floor.
The NY session broke the 1.1100 floor on hot-CPI dollar demand and set a day low at 1.1082. After the NY close, a sweep of that day low reversed into an Asia session spike to the 1.1100 round number. Price was rejected there, just below the ema50 at 1.1103, which lines up with the 23.6% level of the day decline fib. Price holds above the ema20 at 1.1091, with RSI(14) neutral at 52 and ATR(14) at 4.8 pips.
Support: 1.10914, 1.1082
Resistance: 1.1100, 1.11026, 1.1130
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1100 round number and the ema50 at 1.1103 (23.6% of the day decline fib) reclaims the broken floor; that opens a move toward the London session low near 1.1130
Failure to hold the ema20 at 1.1091 returns price to the late-NY range; a break of the 1.1082 day low extends the lower-low sequence
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC, US jobless claims at 13:30 UTC and Lagarde at 19:30 UTC Thursday could materially shift this read
23:16 UTC
Downtrend, sharp bounce off day low · RSI 56 · price 1.10977
Lower highs intact; double bottom at 1.1082 testing 1.1100 neckline.
Fed 50bp hike bets drove the NY selloff to the 1.1082 day low. A late-NY dip swept that low by a fraction and reversed, forming a double bottom. The first Asia-session bar ran 15 pips into the 1.1100 neckline as ATR(14) expanded to 4.9 pips, leaving price above ema20 at 1.1091 but just under ema50 at 1.1103.
Support: 1.1091, 1.1082
Resistance: 1.1100, 1.1103, 1.1110
What it said to watch
M15 close above ema50 at 1.1103 confirms the double bottom break and brings the 1.1110 fib 50% of the NY selloff into play
Rejection at the 1.1100 neckline and a close back below ema20 at 1.1091 returns price to the late-NY range
Failure to hold the 1.1082 day low resumes the NY downtrend
US jobless claims at 13:30 UTC Thu and the Fed speaker slate could materially shift this read
23:01 UTC
Downtrend, stalling at lows · RSI 39 · price 1.10944
Tight post-NY range 1.1085–1.1094 beneath lower highs after an ~85-pip slide.
Hot US CPI follow-through and jumbo-hike talk drove an ~85-pip slide from the Asian range high near 1.1170 to 1.1082 in early NY, taking out the 1.1100 round number. Since then price has compressed in a 1.1085–1.1094 range under falling EMAs, with the last close below the ema20 (1.1090). A late-NY sweep of the 1.1082 double low was reclaimed, and the opening Asia bar is probing the range top and the lower-highs line from the 1.1099 bounce high. RSI(14) sits at 38.5 and ATR has compressed to 4.1 pips.
Support: 1.10819
Resistance: 1.10944, 1.10986, 1.1100
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1094 range top breaks the lower-highs line and puts the 1.1099 bounce high and the 1.1100 round number in view
Acceptance below the 1.1082 double low reopens the downtrend leg
Thin rollover and early-Asia liquidity: spikes off the double low may not hold
US jobless claims 13:30 UTC and the Fed speaker slate from 14:00 UTC Thu can reset this range
Tight post-breakdown consolidation above the 1.1082 session low, lower highs.
Follow-through from the hot US CPI took EURUSD out of the Asian range, down from the 1.1170 Asian high and through 1.1100 in the NY session, to a 1.1082 session low. Since then it has held a 1.1082–1.1099 consolidation, with lower highs capped near the ema20. A thin post-NY-close dip retested the session low and was rejected. RSI(14) has recovered to 41 from 30.7, and ATR has compressed to 3.8 pips.
Support: 1.10822, 1.1080
Resistance: 1.10907, 1.10986, 1.11038
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1082 session low resumes the downtrend and exposes the 1.1080 round number
Close above the 1.1099 bounce high breaks the lower-highs sequence and brings the ema50 at 1.1104 into play
Holding under the ema20 at 1.1091 keeps the consolidation capped
Thin Asia session liquidity; Thu US jobless claims 13:30 UTC, the Fed-speak slate and Lagarde 19:30 GMT could materially shift this read
Post-breakdown range 1.1082–1.1099 under lower highs, retesting range floor.
London broke below the Asian range low near 1.1158. Fed 50bp-hike talk then extended the post-CPI dollar bid into a NY-open flush to the 1.1082 day low. Price has since ranged up to a 1.1099 range top under the ema20, with lower highs, and a late drop after NY close is retesting the day low with RSI(14) at 30.7 and ATR compressed to 3.7 pips.
Support: 1.10822, 1.1050
Resistance: 1.1091, 1.10986, 1.11045
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1082 day low extends the downtrend toward the 1.1050 round number
Close above the lower highs line and the 1.1099 range top would turn this into a deeper bounce toward the ema50 at 1.1105
Thu US jobless claims (13:30 UTC), the Fed-speak slate and Lagarde (19:30 GMT) could materially shift this read
Late drop came in thin post-NY hours; Asia session acceptance below 1.1082 is the test
Post-NY consolidation 1.1085–1.1099 under both EMAs.
London broke below the Asian range near 1.1158, and NY extended the slide to a 1.1082 session low as hot-CPI Fed hike pricing kept the dollar bid. Since then price has held a tight 1.1085 range floor to 1.1099 range top band under a descending highs line, capped by the ema20 at 1.1092 with RSI(14) at 40 and ATR(14) compressed to 3.4 pips in thin late-session trade.
Support: 1.10855, 1.10822
Resistance: 1.10919, 1.10986, 1.11054
What it said to watch
M15 close above the range top at 1.1099 breaks the descending highs line and puts the ema50 at 1.1105 in view
Failure to hold the 1.1085 range floor exposes the 1.1082 session low, a break of which resumes the NY leg lower
Price is still capped by the ema20 at 1.1092; acceptance above it would shift the consolidation higher
Asia session typically keeps ranges narrow, while ATR at 3.4 pips points to compression ahead of a range break
Thu ECB Economic Bulletin 09:00 GMT, US jobless claims 13:30 UTC and heavy Fed-speak could break the range; NY leg fib 38.2% near 1.1105 is the first retracement reference
22:01 UTC
Downtrend, now stalling · RSI 38 · price 1.10893
Tight post-NY range below ema20, lower highs.
London and NY sold away from the Asian range (1.1158–1.1170), breaking the 1.1100 floor on hot-CPI USD demand to a 1.1082 session low. Since the 1.1099 bounce high, price has coiled in a 1.1086–1.1094 range with lower highs, below the ema20 (1.1092) and ema50 (1.1106). RSI(14) sits at 38 and ATR has compressed to 3.6 pips into the late NY session.
Support: 1.1086, 1.10822
Resistance: 1.10921, 1.10938, 1.10986
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1082 session low resumes the downtrend
Close above the 1.1094 range top and ema20 tests the 1.1099 bounce high; a break there ends the lower-highs sequence
Thu US jobless claims (13:30 UTC), Fed speakers and Lagarde (19:30 GMT) could break the range
21:46 UTC
Downtrend, pausing in late NY · RSI 38 · price 1.10898
Lower highs above a 1.1082-1.1086 base, compressing below ema20.
No narrative produced.
Support: 1.1086, 1.10822
Resistance: 1.10923, 1.10986, 1.11067
21:31 UTC
Downtrend, momentum fading into late NY · RSI 35 · price 1.10881
Post-break consolidation 1.1082–1.1099, lower highs under ema20.
Hot-CPI follow-through and jumbo-hike talk took EUR/USD through the old floor at 1.1100 around the NY open, printing a NY low at 1.1082 before the bounce high stalled at 1.1099 and the 38.2% of the NY drop held above it. Since then price has held a tight band, a late low at 1.1086 beneath lower highs capped by the ema20 at 1.1093. RSI is 35.4 and ATR(14) has compressed from 6.3 to 3.9 pips into the post-NY close.
Support: 1.1086, 1.10822
Resistance: 1.10927, 1.10986, 1.1100
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1099 bounce high and the lower-highs line breaks the consolidation read and puts the 1.1100 old floor back in play
Loss of the 1.1086 late low exposes the 1.1082 NY low, and a break there extends the downtrend
Thin Asia session liquidity with ATR at 3.9 pips: range likely to stay compressed until London
Thu US jobless claims (13:30 UTC) and heavy Fed speak, plus Lagarde at 19:30 GMT, could materially shift this read
Post-selloff consolidation box 1.1085–1.1099 with lower highs.
Price left the 1.1158–1.1170 Asian range at London open. Hot US CPI kept Fed hike bets firm, and the slide ran through 1.1100 into a 1.1082 session low during NY hours. Since then it has boxed between the 1.1085 range low and the 1.1099 range top. Lower highs are capping under the ema20 at 1.1093, with the ema50 higher at 1.1108. In the thin post-NY hour price is pressing the range low, RSI(14) is at 32.5 and ATR(14) has compressed to 4 pips.
Support: 1.10854, 1.10822
Resistance: 1.10932, 1.10986, 1.11082
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1082 session low extends the downtrend leg out of the consolidation
Close above the 1.1099 range top and the lower-highs line breaks the box; the ema50 at 1.1108 is the next cap
Failure to hold the 1.1085 range low on the Asia session open shifts focus to the session low
Thu US jobless claims (13:30 UTC), the Fed-speak slate and Lagarde (19:30 GMT) could materially shift this read
21:01 UTC
Downtrend, momentum fading into late NY · RSI 34 · price 1.10882
Hot US CPI and Fed hike bets fuelled a NY-session sell-off through the 1.1100 floor to a 1.1082 session low. Since then price has compressed in a 1.1085–1.1099 range under a falling ema20 at 1.1094, with ATR(14) shrinking to 4.1 pips. RSI(14) at 34 has lifted off sub-30 readings, but highs keep stepping lower from the 1.1099 bounce high.
Support: 1.10854, 1.10822
Resistance: 1.10939, 1.10986, 1.1109
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1085 range low exposes the 1.1082 session low
Reclaim of the ema20 and the 1.1099 bounce high breaks the lower-high trendline; ema50 at 1.1109 sits just above the broken 1.1100 floor and the 23.6% of the sell-off fib
Thu US jobless claims 13:30 UTC, Fed speakers from 14:00 UTC and Lagarde at 19:30 GMT could shift this read; Fri US PPI is the bigger test
20:46 UTC
Downtrend, compressing after NY low · RSI 39 · price 1.1091
Tight post-selloff range below ema20, higher lows.
Hot US CPI follow-through and hawkish Fed repricing drove a London-to-NY slide from the 1.1170 Asian range high through 1.1100. The move bottomed at the 1.1082 session low in the first hour of NY. Late NY has compressed into a ~15-pip band capped by the ema20 (1.10945) and the 1.1099 bounce high, with higher lows off the 1.1085 pm low, RSI(14) recovered from 26 to 39 and ATR shrinking to 4.1 pips.
Support: 1.10854, 1.10822
Resistance: 1.10945, 1.10986, 1.11099
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1099 bounce high reclaims the ema20 and points to the ema50 near 1.1110
Break below the 1.1085 pm low and 1.1082 session low resumes the downtrend leg
Thu US jobless claims and the Fed-speak slate could materially shift this read
Range likely stays thin through Asia session given compressed ATR
Post-breakdown pennant, lower highs vs higher lows above the 1.1082 session low.
EURUSD lost about 85 pips through London and NY as the hot-CPI USD bid and hawkish Fed commentary drove it through the 1.1100 broken floor, with in-line German HICP offering no offset, to a 1.1082 session low. Since the 1.1099 bounce high the late NY session has compressed into a pennant below the ema20 (1.1095). The 1.1085 higher low is holding, RSI(14) has recovered from 24 to 40 and ATR has eased to 4.3 pips.
Support: 1.10854, 1.10822
Resistance: 1.10947, 1.10986, 1.1100
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1099 bounce high breaks the lower-highs line and brings the 1.1100 broken floor back into play
Failure to hold the 1.1085 higher low exposes the 1.1082 session low; a break there resumes the downtrend
A bounce that stalls in the 23.6–38.2% zone of the NY leg fib (1.1096–1.1104) keeps the leg intact
Thu ECB Bulletin 09:00 GMT, US claims 13:30 UTC and heavy Fed-speak could materially shift this read
Post-selloff consolidation 1.1082–1.1099 with higher lows.
The NY session leg lower from 13:00 UTC cut through 1.1100 as the post-CPI USD bid extended. It printed a session low at 1.1082. Since then price has held a tight 1.1085–1.1099 box on rising lows (1.1082, 1.1085, 1.1088), with ATR(14) compressing to 4.4 pips and RSI(14) recovering to 41 from sub-30. Price is capped just below ema20 at 1.1095, with ema50 at 1.1111 overhead.
Support: 1.10875, 1.10822
Resistance: 1.1095, 1.10986, 1.11114
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1099 bounce high clears ema20 and opens ema50 at 1.1111
Break of the 1.1088 higher low breaks the rising lows line and exposes the 1.1082 session low
Late Fed speakers (Williams) and Thu US jobless claims, ahead of Fri PPI, could expand the compressed range
Post-breakdown box 1.1085–1.1099 below the 1.1100 range floor, lower highs.
Hawkish Fed talk and post-CPI USD demand pushed the NY sell-off through the 1.1100 range floor to a session low at 1.1082, with RSI(14) bottoming near 23.6 before recovering to 36. Since then price has held a tight box above the late low at 1.1085, capped by a line of lower highs from the 1.1099 bounce high, with ema20 at 1.1095 overhead and ATR compressing to 4.5 pips.
Support: 1.10854, 1.10822
Resistance: 1.10951, 1.10986, 1.1100
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1099 bounce high and back over the 1.1100 range floor would mark a reclaim of the broken floor
Loss of the 1.1085 late low and then the 1.1082 session low would resume the downtrend
Break of the lower-highs line or rejection at ema20 1.1095 sets the next intraday leg
Thu US jobless claims and Fed speakers, then Fri core PPI, could materially shift this read
19:46 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 37 · price 1.10916
Hot-CPI USD follow-through broke the 1.1104 level across the London-NY transition, with a 1.10822 session low as RSI(14) bottomed at 10.1. Late NY has compressed into a 1.1085–1.1099 box: higher lows at 1.10854 and 1.10875 against a 1.10986 bounce high. Price sits below ema20 (1.10955) and ema50 (1.1113), and ATR has eased to 4.6 pips.
Support: 1.10875, 1.10822
Resistance: 1.10955, 1.10986, 1.1104
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.10986 bounce high and ema20 puts the broken 1.1104 level back in play as resistance
Break of the 1.10875 higher low and the 1.10822 session low resumes the NY selloff
Thursday's US jobless claims, Fed speakers and Lagarde could materially shift this read
Lower highs capping a tight 1.1085–1.1099 box below broken 1.1104.
Early NY broke the 1.1104 broken floor as hot-CPI USD demand extended, and the selloff bottomed at the 1.1082 day low with RSI(14) at 10. Late NY is now consolidating below the ema20 at 1.1096, with lower highs from the 1.1099 bounce high, the 1.1088 swing low holding and ATR compressing to 4.8 pips.
Support: 1.10875, 1.10822
Resistance: 1.10959, 1.10986, 1.1104
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1099 bounce high breaks the lower-highs line and puts the 1.1104 broken floor back in play
Failure to hold the 1.1088 swing low exposes the 1.1082 day low; a break there extends the selloff
Thursday's 13:30 UTC jobless claims and Fed-speaker slate could materially shift this read
19:16 UTC
Downtrend, momentum fading into late NY · RSI 34 · price 1.10896
Lower highs compressing above 1.1085 after first-hour-of-NY breakdown.
The first hour of NY broke the 1.1104 broken floor on hot-CPI and 50bp Fed-hike USD demand, running to a 1.1082 session low as RSI(14) dropped to about 10. Price has since compressed between the 1.1085 range low and the 1.1099 bounce high. It sits below the ema20 at 1.1096 under a line of lower highs, and ATR(14) has eased to 4.9 pips.
Support: 1.10854, 1.10822
Resistance: 1.10964, 1.10986, 1.1104
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1099 bounce high and the lower-highs line breaks the late-NY consolidation and puts the 1.1104 broken floor back in play
Failure to hold the 1.1085 range low exposes the 1.1082 session low and extends the lower-low sequence
Ema20 at 1.1096 capping closes keeps the downtrend structure intact
Thu US jobless claims 13:30 UTC and Lagarde 19:30 UTC could materially shift this read
19:01 UTC
Downtrend, momentum fading into a late-NY base · RSI 32 · price 1.10884
Lower highs from London; 1.1085–1.1093 compression above the session low.
Hot-CPI USD demand carried a London grind into a NY selloff that broke the 1.1104 floor, now a broken low, and printed a 1.1082 session low with RSI(14) near 10. Late NY is compressing between a 1.1085 higher low and a 1.1093 range top, below ema20 (1.1097) and the 1.1099 bounce high, with ATR easing to 5 pips.
Support: 1.10854, 1.10822
Resistance: 1.10932, 1.10986, 1.11041
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1093 range top puts the ema20 and 1.1099 bounce high in play
Reclaim of the 1.1104 broken low would undercut the NY selloff breakdown
Loss of the 1.1085 higher low exposes the 1.1082 session low and a fresh lower-low
Thu US jobless claims 13:30 UTC, Lagarde 19:30 UTC and Williams 23:30 UTC could materially shift this read
18:46 UTC
Downtrend, pausing after a steep NY leg · RSI 33 · price 1.1090
Lower highs from London; post-low coil with a higher low under ema20.
The Asian range low near 1.1150 gave way at London open. The NY session then pushed through the 1.1104 floor to a 1.1082 NY low as the hot-CPI USD bid extended, with RSI(14) bottoming near 10. The late-NY bounce capped at 1.1099, the bounce high, just above ema20 (1.1098). A higher low at 1.1085 followed, and price is coiling near 1.1090 with ATR compressing to 5.1 pips.
Support: 1.10854, 1.10822
Resistance: 1.10986, 1.1104
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1099 bounce high and ema20 opens a retest of the 1.1104 broken floor
Failure to hold the 1.1085 higher low exposes the 1.1082 NY low and resumes the lower-highs sequence
Fed's Williams (23:30 UTC) and Thursday's US claims could shift this read
Post-selloff range 1.1085–1.1099 below both EMAs, higher low printed.
London broke below the Asian range near 1.1150. The NY session then extended the dollar bid from the hot US CPI and 50bp Fed bets through the 1.1104–1.1110 old support, reaching a session low at 1.1082. Since then price has compressed in a 1.1085–1.1099 band below the ema20 and ema50. The higher low at 1.1085 sits beneath the bounce high at 1.1099, which stalled near the 23.6% fib, while RSI(14) has recovered from 10 to 34 and ATR has eased to 5.5 pips.
Support: 1.10854, 1.10822
Resistance: 1.10986, 1.1110, 1.1119
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1099 bounce high and ema20 opens a retest of 1.1110 old support
Rejection at 1.1110 old support keeps the breakdown read intact; ema50 at 1.1119 caps above it
Loss of the 1.1085 higher low and the 1.1082 session low resumes the downtrend leg
US jobless claims and Fed speakers on Thursday could shift 50bp pricing and this read
18:01 UTC
Downtrend, pausing after NY flush · RSI 35 · price 1.10925
London broke below the Asian range and NY extended the hot-CPI USD bid through the 1.1104 prior floor to a 1.10822 ny low, with RSI(14) washing out near 10. Since then, price has held a tight box capped by the 1.10986 bounce high, with a higher low at 1.10854. RSI has recovered to 34.6 and ATR has eased from 7.1 to 5.8 pips. Price stays below a falling ema20 at 1.11003.
Support: 1.10854, 1.10822
Resistance: 1.10986, 1.11003, 1.1104
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.10986 bounce high and ema20 at 1.11003 opens a retest of the 1.1104 prior floor
Break of the 1.10854 higher low and 1.10822 ny low resumes the downtrend
Bounce stalling near the 38.2% of the ny drop fib keeps the consolidation intact
Thu jobless claims and Fed speakers on 25 vs 50bp are the next catalysts, none due in the coming hours
Post-selloff consolidation below ema20, higher low in place.
With USD still bid on the hot US CPI, London broke the Asian range low near 1.1150 and NY extended the slide through the 1.1104 broken floor to a 1.1082 session low. Late NY has compressed into a 1.1085–1.1099 box. A higher low printed at 1.1085, price is capped below the ema20 at 1.1101, RSI(14) has recovered from 10 to 35 and ATR is easing to 6 pips.
Support: 1.10854, 1.10822
Resistance: 1.10986, 1.11011, 1.1104
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1099 bounce high and the ema20 at 1.1101 opens a retest of the 1.1104 broken floor, near the 38.2% of the NY selloff fib
Failure to hold the 1.1085 higher low exposes the 1.1082 session low and resumes the lower-low sequence
Thursday's US jobless claims and Fed speakers on 25bp vs 50bp are the next scheduled risk to this read
Lower highs from Asia; NY base forming 1.1082–1.1099.
London broke the Asian range low near 1.1151, and the hot-CPI USD bid carried the early NY session through the 1.1104 broken support to a 1.1082 session low as RSI(14) bottomed near 10. Price has since consolidated between 1.1082 and the 1.1099 bounce high, below the ema20 at 1.1102, with a higher low at 1.1085 and ATR(14) easing to 6.2 pips.
Support: 1.10854, 1.10822
Resistance: 1.10986, 1.11019, 1.11041
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1082 session low resumes the downtrend and breaks the higher low line
Close above the 1.1099 bounce high and ema20 at 1.1102, then back over the 1.1104 broken supp, puts a retracement of the day's drop toward the 38.2% fib near 1.1116 in play
Fed's Daly at 18:10 UTC and Williams at 23:30 UTC on the 50bp debate could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows; bounce capped below ema20.
London broke below the 1.1150–1.1170 Asian range. NY then cut through the 1.1104 area on Fed 50bp bets after the hot US CPI, printing a session low at 1.1082 with RSI(14) near 10. After London close the bounce stalled at a 1.1099 bounce high under the ema20, near the 38.2% fib of the NY leg, and price is back near the lows with RSI 26 and ATR easing to 6.1 pips.
Support: 1.10822, 1.1050
Resistance: 1.10986, 1.1103
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1082 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.1050 round number
Close back above the 1.1099 bounce high and the ema20 at 1.1103 breaks the lower-high sequence
Thursday's Fed speaker slate and jobless claims (13:30 UTC) can reprice 50bp odds
London base broken at NY open, lower-low at 1.1082, shallow pullback.
With the USD still bid after Tuesday's hot CPI, EUR/USD broke its 1.1130–1.1142 London base at the NY open and sliced through the 1.1104–1.1110 support, printing a 1.1082 NY low. RSI(14) bottomed near 10 before the pullback. Late in the NY session, after London close, the bounce has stalled at the 1.1099 bounce high, below the ema20 at 1.1105 and the 38.2% retrace of the NY selloff. RSI sits at 29.9, still oversold, and ATR is 6.1 pips.
Support: 1.1090, 1.10822
Resistance: 1.10986, 1.11047, 1.1142
What it said to watch
Close above the 1.1099 bounce high and the ema20 at 1.1105 (38.2% of the NY selloff) would turn the pullback into a deeper retrace toward the 1.1142 london base
Failure to hold the 1.1090 pullback low puts the 1.1082 NY low back in play; a break there extends the lower-low chain
Thu US jobless claims (13:30 UTC) and Fedspeak are the next USD tests of the 50bp-hike narrative
Lower highs after the NY-hours break of the London base; tight pause above the session low.
Hot US CPI follow-through drove a second leg lower from 13:00 UTC. Price broke the 1.1131 London base and the 1.1104–1.1110 floor, reaching a 1.1082 session low with RSI(14) down at 10. The NY bounce stalled at the 1.1099 bounce high, below the ema20 at 1.1106, and price is now back near the 1.1090 pullback low with RSI 28.4 still oversold.
Support: 1.1090, 1.10822
Resistance: 1.10986, 1.11059, 1.1131
What it said to watch
Break below the 1.1082 session low extends the lower-low chain
M15 close above the 1.1099 bounce high and ema20 (1.1106) would turn the old 1.1104–1.1110 floor into a retest zone
Recovery back to the 1.1131 london base would negate the range break
Thursday's US jobless claims and Fedspeak could reset this read
Lower highs from London; post-break bounce capped below ema20.
London broke below the Asian range low near 1.1150. NY then cut through the 1.1104–1.1110 support named in the market digest to a 1.1082 session low as the post-CPI USD bid extended. The bounce has stalled at 1.1099, below the ema20 at 1.1107; RSI(14) is back to 30 from a 10 trough, and ATR is easing to 6.5 pips as the late-NY consolidation sets in.
Support: 1.1090, 1.10822
Resistance: 1.10986, 1.11074, 1.11305
What it said to watch
Close back above the ema20 at 1.1107 and 1.1110 old support would turn the NY break into a false break, with the 38.2% fib of the NY leg at 1.1105 sitting in the same zone
Rejection below the 1.1099 bounce high keeps the lower-high sequence intact
Failure to hold the 1.1090 bounce low reopens the 1.1082 session low
A recovery through the 1.1130 london base would negate the London-NY range break
US jobless claims and Fedspeak Thu from 13:30 UTC, then Lagarde 19:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
16:16 UTC
Downtrend, bounce stalling under broken support · RSI 32 · price 1.1097
Asian range broken in London, NY extension to 1.1082, higher low at 1.1090.
London broke the Asian range low near 1.1151. NY then extended the post-CPI dollar follow-through, slicing the 1.1104 broken low to a session low of 1.1082 as RSI(14) bottomed near 10. The late-NY bounce has printed a higher low at 1.1090 and is stalling just under 1.1104, below the ema20 at 1.1109 and the 38.2% fib of the NY drop.
Support: 1.1090, 1.1082
Resistance: 1.1104, 1.1109, 1.1131
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.1104 broken low and the ema20 at 1.1109 undoes the break and opens the 1.1131 london range floor
Rejection under 1.1104 followed by a loss of the 1.1090 higher low puts the 1.1082 session low back in play
ATR(14) at 6.7 pips, expanded from ~5 before the NY drop
US jobless claims and heavy Fedspeak Thu from 13:30 UTC could reprice 50bp Fed bets and shift this read
Lower highs and lows; London range broken at NY open, minor bounce off the NY low.
EUR/USD broke below the 1.1131 london low at the NY open as the post-CPI USD bid extended. It sliced through 1.1104–1.1110 support to a 1.1082 NY low, with RSI(14) bottoming near 10 and ATR expanding to 6.9 pips. The bounce has lifted RSI back to 30, but price is capped below the 1.1098 bounce high and sits under the ema20 at 1.1110, which lines up with broken support and the 50% of the NY leg fib.
Support: 1.1090, 1.10822
Resistance: 1.10976, 1.11099, 1.11305
What it said to watch
Close above the 1.1098 bounce high and the ema20 at 1.1110 would extend the NY leg retrace toward the 1.1130 london low
Failure to hold the 1.1090 pullback low reopens the 1.1082 ny low; a break below it extends the lower-low sequence
US jobless claims and Fedspeak Thu from 13:30 UTC, then Fri PPI, could re-price the 50bp Fed narrative and shift this read
Lower highs from the Asian range; NY broke the 1.1104 floor.
The slide from the 1.1158–1.1170 Asian range extended at the NY open, with the hot-CPI USD bid breaking the 1.1104 floor down to a 1.1082 ny low. The bounce stalled at a 1.1097 bounce high and price is holding a 1.1090 minor low. RSI(14) has lifted off 10 but is still oversold at 24.2, price sits below the ema20 (1.1111) and ema50 (1.1132), and ATR has expanded to 6.9 pips.
Support: 1.1090, 1.10822
Resistance: 1.10965, 1.1104, 1.11114
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 1.1104 broken floor would turn the break into a false break; the ema20 at 1.1111 overlaps the 50% of the ny leg fib just above
Failure to hold the 1.1090 minor low and then the 1.1082 ny low resumes the downtrend leg toward the 1.1000 area flagged in the digest
Thursday's Fed speakers (Williams, Daly) on a 50bp December hike, and Friday's core PPI, could materially shift this read
Lower-low chain; NY broke London range, small higher low.
London broke below the 1.1151–1.1170 Asian range. NY open extended the slide through the 1.1104–1.1110 broken floor to a 1.1082 ny low as USD stayed bid after the hot US CPI and 50bp Fed bets. RSI(14) has lifted off 10 to 25.6, still oversold, with a higher low at 1.1091 and price below the ema20 at 1.1113 and the EMA50. ATR has expanded to 7 pips.
Support: 1.1091, 1.1082
Resistance: 1.1097, 1.1104, 1.11134
What it said to watch
Failure to clear the 1.1097 bounce high keeps the 1.1091 higher low under test
M15 close back above the 1.1104 broken floor would mark the NY break as a false break, with the 38.2% retracement of the London-NY drop just above
Ema20 at 1.1113 caps any retracement of the London-NY drop below the 50% level
Loss of the 1.1082 ny low resumes the lower-low chain toward 1.1000
Thursday's US jobless claims (13:30 UTC) and Fed speakers could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lows; London range broke lower into NY open.
The London low at 1.1130 gave way into the NY open as the post-CPI USD bid extended. Price sliced through the 1.1104–1.1110 floor to a 1.1082 session low, which held on two consecutive bars. RSI(14) has lifted from 10 to 23.6, still oversold, while ATR has expanded to 7.1 pips. The broken floor at 1.1110 lines up with the selloff fib 50%, with ema20 just above at 1.1115.
Support: 1.10822
Resistance: 1.1110, 1.11154, 1.1130
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.1110 broken floor would turn the breakdown into a false break and expose ema20 at 1.1115
Failure to hold the 1.1082 session low extends the lower-low chain; the digest flags 1.1000 as the next area
Recovery above the London low at 1.1130 invalidates the breakdown read
15:01 UTC
Downtrend, accelerating into NY · RSI 10 · price 1.10834
Lower highs and lows since London open; London base broken in NY.
London sold through the Asian range, then the first hour of NY broke the 1.1131 london low and the widely flagged 1.1104/1.1110 floor. The hot US CPI and 50bp Fed pricing kept USD bid. Price sits at the 1.1082 session low below both EMAs, with RSI(14) at 10.1 deeply oversold and ATR expanding to 6.7 pips.
Support: 1.10822
Resistance: 1.1104, 1.11177, 1.11305
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.1104 broken floor would point to a false break of support
Failure to hold the 1.1082 session low extends the lower-low chain
EMA20 at 1.1118 caps any bounce toward the 0.5 fib of the london-ny drop
Thursday Fed speakers and Friday's US PPI could materially shift this read
14:46 UTC
Downtrend, oversold and stalling · RSI 11 · price 1.10871
Lower highs/lows; NY broke London base.
London broke below the 1.1151 Asian range low. The NY open then cracked the 1.1131 London base and cut through the 1.1104 prior floor to a 1.1085 session low, with the USD bid from the hot US CPI print still driving. Price sits below both EMAs, and RSI(14) at 10.6 is deeply oversold. ATR has expanded from 4.8 to 6.7 pips, and the last bar is pausing just above the session low.
Support: 1.10848
Resistance: 1.11041, 1.11211, 1.1131
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.1104 prior floor would turn the break into a false break
Failure to hold the 1.1085 session low extends the NY leg toward the 1.1000 area flagged in the macro read
Any rebound meets the ema20 at 1.1121 near the 61.8% of the NY leg fib, with the 1.1131 london base above
Thursday's Fed speakers and Friday's US core PPI could reprice 50bp December odds and shift this read
14:31 UTC
Downtrend, accelerating into NY open · RSI 11 · price 1.10888
Lower highs and lows; London range floor broken, 1.1104 floor taken out.
EURUSD broke the London 1.1130–1.1143 range floor ahead of NY open and sliced through the 1.1104 broken floor flagged after the hot US CPI print, setting a session low at 1.1085 as ATR(14) expanded to 6.7 pips. RSI(14) at 11 is deeply oversold with price well below ema20 at 1.1125, and the breakdown leg from 1.1139 has yet to produce a meaningful bounce.
Support: 1.10848, 1.1000
Resistance: 1.1104, 1.11247, 1.11305
What it said to watch
Recovery back above the 1.1104 broken floor would mark the drop as a false break
M15 close below the 1.1085 session low extends the downtrend, with 1.1000 psych the next marker in the macro read
A bounce toward ema20 near 1.1125 that stalls under the 1.1130 range floor keeps the lower-high sequence intact
RSI(14) at 11 is stretched; the breakdown leg fib 38.2–50% zone (1.1105–1.1112) overlaps the broken floor
Fed speakers and Thursday's Lagarde speech could materially shift this read
14:16 UTC
Downtrend, accelerating into NY · RSI 13 · price 1.10965
Lower highs; London base broken, new session low.
London's 1.1131–1.1143 base gave way at 13:00 UTC. The drop into the NY open cut through the 1.1104 prior low and the 1.1100 round number to a session low at 1.1093, with the USD still bid after the hot US CPI. RSI(14) at 12.9 is deeply oversold, ATR is expanding to 6.3 pips, and price is well below the ema20 (1.1128) and ema50 (1.1143).
Support: 1.10929
Resistance: 1.11041, 1.11284, 1.11432
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 1.1104 prior low would turn the break into a false break
Failure to hold the 1.1093 session low extends the lower-low chain; the 1.1000 round number is the next level flagged in the digest
RSI at 12.9 leaves room for a reflex bounce; the ema20 near 1.1128 and the lower-highs line are the first caps
A reclaim of the ema50 at 1.1143 (London range top) neutralises the downtrend read
No scheduled events in the next 8h; Thursday's jobless claims, Fed speakers and Lagarde are the next catalysts
14:01 UTC
Downtrend, accelerating into NY open · RSI 15 · price 1.10959
Lower highs; London consolidation broken, prior low cleared.
EUR/USD broke out of the 1.1131–1.1143 London consolidation at the London-NY transition and cut through the 1.1104 prior low to a session low at 1.1096. The move extends the post-CPI USD bid, with lower highs capped by the descending trendline. RSI(14) at 14.9 is deeply oversold, ATR is expanding to 5.8 pips, and price sits below a falling ema20 (1.1132) and ema50 (1.1145).
Support: 1.10959, 1.1000
Resistance: 1.11041, 1.11317, 1.1145
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 1.1104 prior low would turn the break into a false break
A bounce into the selloff fib 38.2–50% (1.1114–1.1119) that stalls keeps the lower-high sequence intact
A close above the ema20 at 1.1132 and the descending trendline negates the intraday downtrend
Below the session low, the 1.1000 round number is the next reference flagged in the digest
RSI(14) sub-15 is stretched and leaves room for a snap-back without changing the structure
Thu jobless claims and Fedspeak (Hammack, Williams) are the next USD catalysts, with core PPI on Fri
13:46 UTC
Downtrend, oversold into the floor · RSI 19 · price 1.11159
Lower highs since London; range break lower in first hour of NY.
Post-CPI USD strength keeps the pair heavy. London sold off from the 1.1151–1.1170 Asian range, and the first hour of NY broke the 1.1131–1.1143 consolidation (range floor to range top) to a session low at 1.1114. RSI(14) is oversold at 19.1 with price below both EMAs, and the 1.1110 50% retrace / 1.1104 recent low floor sits just beneath.
Support: 1.1114, 1.1110, 1.1104
Resistance: 1.1131, 1.11346, 1.11425
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.1110 50% retrace and 1.1104 recent low extends the lower-low chain
M15 close back above the 1.1131 range floor and the ema20 at 1.11346 would mark the break as a false break
A close above the lower highs trendline near the 1.1143 range top invalidates the downtrend read
Thursday 13:30 UTC jobless claims and the Fedspeak slate could materially shift this read
13:31 UTC
Downtrend, selling extended into NY open · RSI 19 · price 1.11158
Lower highs since London open; Asian range and Tuesday's cpi low broken.
London extended the post-CPI USD bid. Price broke below the 1.1158–1.1170 Asian range high-to-low band and Tuesday's 1.1145 cpi low, and a lower-highs chain capped every bounce. The late-London leg through the 1.1131 prior low tagged 1.1115 into NY open, with RSI(14) at 19.3 oversold, ATR(14) widening to 5.4 pips and price below both EMAs. The 1.1110 50% retrace and 1.1104 recent low sit just underneath.
Support: 1.1110, 1.1104, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.1131, 1.11367, 1.11448
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the lower-highs trendline and ema20 (1.1137) breaks the London sell sequence; 1.1131 prior low is the first test
Break of the 1.1104 recent low exposes the 1.1100 round number
RSI(14) sub-20: a bounce that stalls below the 1.1145 cpi low keeps the downtrend read intact; a bounce that clears it, alongside the 38.2% retrace of the Asian range high fib, breaks it
US PPI (timing unconfirmed) and Thursday Fedspeak on 50bp could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since the Asian high; 1.1131 floor just broken.
The post-US CPI slide resumed at London open, cutting through the 1.1150 Asian low, then broke the 1.1131 prior floor into the NY open to print a session low at 1.1125. Lower highs keep price under the ema20 at 1.1139; RSI(14) is oversold at 26.4 and ATR(14) is 4.9 pips.
Support: 1.11253, 1.1110, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.1131, 1.11389, 1.11506
What it said to watch
A recovery back above the 1.1131 prior floor would turn the break into a false break
A close above the lower highs trendline and the ema20 near 1.1139, also the 38.2% of the Asian high fib at 1.1143, ends the lower-high sequence
The 1.1110 floor and 1.1100 round number are next below the session low; acceptance under them extends the CPI selloff
Thursday's jobless claims, Fedspeak and Lagarde at 19:30 UTC are the next catalysts that could shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since London open, pressing session low.
London broke below the Asian range near 1.1150 and through yesterday's post-CPI prior low at 1.1145, extending the USD bid from the hot US CPI beat. Price is retesting the 1.1130 session low into the London-NY transition, below a falling ema20 with each bounce capped at a lower high. RSI(14) sits at 30.7, near but not in oversold territory, and ATR(14) is 4.8 pips.
Support: 1.11305, 1.1110, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.11402, 1.11425, 1.11448
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1130 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.1110 50% retrace and the 1.1100 range floor
Close above the ema20 (1.1140) and the 1.1143 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline
Reclaim of the 1.1145 prior low would turn the London range break into a false break
No US data at the NY open; Thursday's jobless claims and Lagarde's remarks are the next scheduled risk to this read
Lower highs into a tight 1.1130–1.1143 box ahead of NY open.
Hot US CPI set the tone, and London extended the slide through the asian low at 1.1151 to a 1.1131 session low. Since then price has boxed between 1.1130 and the 1.1143 range top, capped by the lower-high trendline under ema20 (1.1141). RSI(14) at 33.4 is holding higher lows against marginally lower price lows, and ATR(14) has eased to 4.8 pips.
Support: 1.11305, 1.1110
Resistance: 1.11411, 1.11425, 1.11506
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1130 session low resumes the downtrend toward the 1.1110 floor flagged in the digest
Close above the 1.1143 range top and ema20 breaks the lower-high trendline and exposes the asian low and the 50% fib of the asia-london decline near 1.1150
No high-impact US data today, so Fed-speak during NY hours on 50bp December pricing is the main risk to the read
Lower highs below ema20, base forming near 1.1130.
Hot US CPI yesterday knocked EUR/USD from 1.1210 to 1.1145. London then broke the 1.1151 Asian low and extended to a 1.1130 swing low. Price is chopping below the ema20 with lower highs capping at 1.1143, buyers have stepped in twice near 1.1130, and ATR sits at 4.9 pips into the London-NY transition.
Support: 1.11305, 1.1110
Resistance: 1.11425, 1.11506
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1143 lower high and the descending lower-highs trendline breaks the chain
Failure to hold the 1.1130 swing low exposes the 1.1110 range floor
Reclaim of the 1.1151 Asian low, near ema50 and the 50% fib of the Asian high-to-swing low drop, would neutralise the London breakdown
Fed speakers during NY hours and Thursday's US jobless claims and Lagarde (19:30 UTC) could shift this read
Lower highs above a flat 1.1131 floor, below both EMAs.
London broke the Asian range low near 1.1151 and extended the post-US CPI slide to a 1.1131 session low, with price below the ema20 (1.1142) and ema50 (1.1152). Late in London the session low has held twice. Bounces are printing lower highs under the ema20 as ATR(14) holds near 5 pips and RSI(14) sits at 36.6, off the 25.5 extreme.
Support: 1.11305, 1.1110, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.11424, 1.11497, 1.11523
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1131 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.1110 50% retrace and the 1.1100 range floor
Close above the lower-highs line and the ema20 at 1.1142 breaks the compression; the 1.1150 swing high and the ema50 at 1.1152 cap above
No high-impact data today; Thursday's US jobless claims and Fedspeak are the next scheduled risk
Lower highs and lower lows below the broken Asian range.
London broke the Asian low at 1.1158 and has stepped lower to a 1.11305 session low, extending the USD bid that followed yesterday's hot US CPI. Rallies are capped under the falling lower-highs trendline and the ema20 at 1.1143, but the latest low printed with a higher RSI(14) low than earlier in the session, a bullish divergence. The 1.1110 50% retracement and 1.1100 range floor sit about 20 pips below.
Support: 1.11305, 1.1110, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.11429, 1.11497, 1.11583
What it said to watch
M15 close above the ema20 at 1.1143 and the lower-highs trendline would break the London downtrend structure
Acceptance above the 1.1150 swing high reopens the Asian low at 1.1158 as resistance
Failure to hold the 1.11305 session low exposes the 1.1110 50% retracement and the 1.1100 range floor
No high-impact EUR/USD data in the next 8h; Thursday's US jobless claims and Fedspeak are the next scheduled catalyst
Lower highs and lower lows since the Asian range broke; latest low only marginal.
The hot US CPI print started the slide. London then broke below the Asian range and stepped lower through a chain of lower highs to a session low at 1.1130. The latest probe of that low came with RSI(14) at 34.2, up from 28.3 at the prior low, a bullish divergence, though price still sits below both EMAs and ATR(14) has expanded to 5.2 pips.
Support: 1.11305, 1.1110
Resistance: 1.11425, 1.11497, 1.11536
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 1.1143 lower high and ema20 breaks the lower-highs trendline
A recovery through the 1.1150 swing high and the ema50 at 1.1154 would neutralise the session downtrend; that area sits near the 50-61.8% fib of the Asia high to session low drop
Acceptance below the 1.1130 session low exposes the 1.1110/1.1100 range floor
Fedspeak during NY hours (Bowman) adding to 50bp repricing could materially shift this read
Lower highs since London open, tight 1.1132–1.1143 band.
London broke the Asian low at 1.1151 and extended yesterday's post-CPI slide to a 1.1132 session low. Price has since compressed between 1.1132 and the 1.1143 range top, below a falling ema20, with highs trending lower. RSI(14) at 33.5 made a higher low on the 1.1132 tag than at 1.1139 (mild bullish divergence), and ATR has widened to 5.1 pips.
Support: 1.11316, 1.1110
Resistance: 1.11425, 1.11445, 1.11506
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1132 session low resumes the lower-low sequence toward the 1.1110 key floor
Close above the 1.1143 range top and the ema20 at 1.11445 breaks the lower-highs trendline
Reclaim of the Asian low at 1.1151 would neutralise the London breakdown
No high-impact data for the rest of today; Fedspeak headlines and Thursday's US jobless claims are the next risk
11:15 UTC
Downtrend, ATR expanding · RSI 36 · price 1.11379
Lower highs below EMAs after break of Asian range low.
London broke the Asian low at 1.11506 and extended the post-CPI USD-led slide to a 1.11316 session low. The bounce high at 1.11425 stalled near the 23.6% retracement of the 1.11698–1.11316 drop, with price below both EMAs and lower highs intact. RSI(14) at 35.9 made a higher low against that lower low, a bullish divergence, as ATR expanded to 5.2 pips.
Support: 1.11316, 1.1110
Resistance: 1.11425, 1.11454, 1.11506
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.11425 bounce high and the lower highs trendline challenges the downtrend read
Recovery into the ema20 at 1.11454 and the old asian low at 1.11506 tests that level as resistance
Break of the 1.11316 session low brings the 1.1110 floor into view, voiding the RSI divergence
No high-impact data in the next 8h; Thu jobless claims and Fedspeak are the next USD risk
London lower highs and lower lows below the Asian range and the prior low.
London broke below the Asian range and yesterday's post-CPI low at 1.11448, then printed lower highs and lower lows down to a 1.11316 session low. Price sits below both EMAs and ATR has expanded to 5.3 pips. The bounce around Lagarde's speech stalled at a 1.11425 lower high near the 38.2% fib, and RSI(14) at 36.9 held above its earlier 25.5 low, a mild bullish divergence.
Support: 1.11316, 1.1111
Resistance: 1.11425, 1.11462, 1.11595
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 1.11425 lower high and the ema20 at 1.11462 breaks the lower-high chain, with the london high at 1.11595 next above
Failure to hold the 1.11316 session low extends the sequence toward the 1.1110 floor flagged in the digest
No US data today. Thursday's Fedspeak and Lagarde at 19:30 UTC, then Friday's Core PPI, could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since Asia; London broke the Asian range low.
London broke the Asian low near 1.1150 and set a session low at 1.1132 around Lagarde's speech, extending the post-CPI slide as Fed-ECB divergence keeps USD bid. Price is consolidating below the ema20 at 1.1147 and under the 38.2% of the Asia-to-London fib, RSI(14) 39 and ATR(14) 5.3 pips.
Support: 1.11316, 1.1110
Resistance: 1.11469, 1.1150, 1.11564
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the ema20 and the 1.1150 asian low would break the lower-high chain
Lower highs trendline and the ema50 at 1.1156 cap the bounce while price holds beneath them
Failure to hold the 1.1132 session low opens the 1.1110 50% retrace floor flagged in the macro read
Lower highs since London open, Asian range broken lower.
London broke below the Asian low at 1.1151 and yesterday's post-CPI low, extending the hot-US-CPI slide to a session low at 1.1132. RSI(14) printed a higher low on that push (25.5 to ~30), and price is now pressing the 38.2% fib near 1.1142, still under the ema20 at 1.1147. ATR has widened to 5.3 pips from 3.2.
Support: 1.11316, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.11474, 1.11506, 1.11595
What it said to watch
M15 close above the ema20 at 1.1147 and the asian low at 1.1151 breaks the lower-high chain
Recovery through the london high at 1.1160 voids the intraday downtrend read
Rejection at the 38.2% fib and a break of the session low at 1.1132 opens the 1.1100 range floor
Lagarde remarks from 09:30 UTC could shift EUR intraday; no high-impact US data today
10:15 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through London · RSI 34 · price 1.1137
Asian range broken lower; lower-high/lower-low chain since 07:15 UTC.
London extended the hot-US-CPI slide. Price broke the 1.1158–1.1170 Asian range and yesterday's 1.1145 CPI low, then printed a 1.1132 session low around Lagarde's speech, with lower highs capping each bounce. RSI(14) is 33.7 after dipping to 25.5, ATR(14) has expanded to 5.3 pips, and price sits below both EMAs.
Support: 1.11316, 1.1110, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.11448, 1.11481, 1.11577
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.1145 cpi low and the lower-highs trendline weakens the downtrend read
Break of the 1.1132 session low exposes the 1.1110 50% retrace, then the 1.1100 round number
ema20 at 1.1148 and ema50 at 1.1158 have capped every bounce since London open
No high-impact US data today; next risk is the ECB Economic Bulletin Thu 09:00 UTC
10:00 UTC
Downtrend, ATR expanding · RSI 33 · price 1.11376
Lower highs below Asian range, post-CPI low broken.
EUR/USD broke below the 1.1158–1.1170 Asian range before London and has since printed lower highs. It cut through yesterday's post-CPI low at 1.1145 to a 1.1132 session low into Lagarde's 09:45 UTC remarks, with the hot US CPI still driving the dollar. Price is below a falling ema20 (1.1149) and the ema50, RSI(14) is 32.7 and not yet oversold, and ATR has expanded to 5.3 pips from 3.1.
Support: 1.11316, 1.1110
Resistance: 1.11448, 1.11492, 1.11595
What it said to watch
Lagarde speaking now: hedging on a December hike could extend the selloff toward the 1.1100 range floor
M15 close below the 1.1132 session low confirms another lower low
Recovery back above the 1.1145 cpi low and the ema20 near 1.1149 would neutralise the lower-high sequence
Reclaiming the 1.1160 london high invalidates the intraday downtrend read
Lower highs and lower lows since London open, Asian range broken lower.
London extended the late-Asia range break lower. Price cut through yesterday's post-CPI prior low at 1.11448 and printed a session low at 1.11316, with lower highs at the 1.11595 London high and 1.11497 as USD stays bid after the hot US CPI. RSI(14) is oversold at 28.3, ATR has expanded from 3.0 to 5.3 pips, and price sits below both EMAs.
Support: 1.11316, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.11448, 1.11497, 1.11595
What it said to watch
Lagarde speaking now (09:45 UTC) could materially shift this read; a firm December hike endorsement is the main upside risk to the structure
M15 close back above the 1.11448 prior low and the 1.11497 lower high breaks the lower-high chain
Failure to hold the 1.11316 session low exposes the 1.1100 range floor
Reclaim of the 1.11595 London high, near ema50 at 1.11594, would negate the London selloff
09:30 UTC
Downtrend, lower lows into London · RSI 31 · price 1.11384
Asian range broken lower; London printing lower highs and lower lows.
After the hot US CPI drop to 1.1145 yesterday, London broke the 1.1151–1.1170 Asian range lower. The pair printed a 1.1137 session low below both EMAs, with ATR expanding to 5.1 pips. The latest lower low came with RSI(14) at 30.6 versus 25.5 on the prior dip, a bullish divergence, while the bounce stalled under the Asian low near 1.1150.
Support: 1.11369, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.1150, 1.11603, 1.11698
What it said to watch
Lagarde speaks at 09:45 UTC (~14 min) and could materially shift this read
M15 close back above the 1.1150 Asian low negates the range break
Failure to hold the 1.1137 session low extends the London leg toward the 1.1100 range floor
Reclaiming the ema50 at 1.1160 would put price back inside the Asian range toward the 1.1170 Asian high
Hot US CPI broke EURUSD lower yesterday. London extended the slide from the 1.1170 Asian high, clearing the 1.1158 asian low and yesterday's 1.1145 post-CPI low to set a session low at 1.1139. Price is below a falling ema20 at 1.1153 with lower highs intact, RSI(14) at 32.2 and ATR expanding to 5.2 pips.
Support: 1.1139, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.11497, 1.11534, 1.11583
What it said to watch
Lagarde speaks at 09:45 UTC (~30 min); a hawkish lean could lift price back through the 1.1150 bounce high
A close above the ema20 at 1.1153 and the 1.1158 asian low breaks the lower-highs sequence
Failure to hold the 1.1139 session low exposes the 1.1100 range floor
London broke the Asian range lower, swept the CPI low, reclaimed it.
London extended the post-CPI downtrend. Price broke below the Asian range, then dipped through the 1.1145 cpi low to a 1.1139 session low around Nagel's speech window before closing back above it. Price sits below both ema20 and ema50 with RSI(14) at 38.5 after a 25.5 dip, and ATR(14) has expanded to 4.9 pips as the session high/low widens.
Support: 1.11448, 1.1139, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.11548, 1.11595, 1.11621
What it said to watch
Lagarde at 09:45 UTC could materially shift this read; the digest flags squeeze risk in crowded EUR shorts
M15 close back below the 1.1145 cpi low turns the false break into a lower-low below the 1.1139 session low, with the 1.1100 range floor beneath
Close above ema20 at 1.1155 and the 1.1160 london high breaks the lower-high trendline; ema50 at 1.1162 sits just above
08:45 UTC
Downtrend, oversold bounce off the session low · RSI 39 · price 1.11484
Lower highs since Asia; London broke the Asian low and swept the prior low.
London extended the Asia-to-London drop, breaking the Asian low near 1.1151 and sweeping Tuesday's post-CPI prior low at 1.1145 to a session low at 1.1139. RSI(14) touched 25.5 there before a quick reclaim to 1.1148. Price stays below the ema20 (1.1156) and ema50 (1.1163) as the hot US CPI keeps EUR heavy, with ATR(14) expanding to 4.9 pips into Lagarde.
Support: 1.11448, 1.1139, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.11555, 1.11595, 1.11627
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the prior low at 1.1145 re-exposes the session low at 1.1139
M15 close above the ema20 at 1.1156 and the london high at 1.1160 breaks the lower highs line
Reclaim of the ema50 at 1.1163 would retrace most of the Asia-to-London drop
Lagarde speaks at 09:45 UTC (~1h) and could materially shift this read; a break below 1.1139 opens the 1.1100 range floor
Lower highs from Asia; London broke the Asian range and prior low.
Hot US CPI drove the 13:30 UTC slide from 1.1210 to the 1.1145 prior low. Asia then held a 1.1151–1.1170 range under a lower-highs line, and London broke the Asian low and the prior low to print a 1.1139 London low. Price sits below the ema20 (1.1156) and ema50, RSI(14) is oversold at 25.5 and ATR(14) has expanded to 4.6 pips.
Support: 1.1139, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.11448, 1.11506, 1.11562
What it said to watch
Recovery back above the 1.1145 prior low and the 1.1151 asian low would turn the London break into a false break
Failure to hold the 1.1139 london low leaves the 1.1100 range floor exposed
A close above the ema20 near 1.1156 and the lower-highs line breaks the intraday sequence
Lagarde speaks at 09:45 UTC (74 min) and could materially shift this read
08:16 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since Asia · RSI 31 · price 1.11468
Lower highs from the Asian high; London broke the Asian range low and is pressing the CPI low.
London extended the post-CPI slide after the in-line German HICP. Price broke under the 1.1151 prior low and is pressing the 1.1145 CPI low, below both EMAs with ema20 at 1.1158. RSI(14) at 30.9 holds above its earlier 28.8 dip, a mild bullish divergence, as ATR expands to 4.2 pips.
Support: 1.11448, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.11506, 1.11578, 1.11698
What it said to watch
Lagarde speaks at 09:45 UTC, in about 90 minutes, and could materially shift this read
An M15 close below the 1.1145 CPI low confirms a lower low and opens the path toward the 1.1100 range floor
A reclaim of the 1.1151 prior low and ema20 at 1.1158 would break the lower highs line from the 1.1170 Asian high
08:01 UTC
Downtrend, stalling at 1.1150 · RSI 39 · price 1.11535
Asian range broken lower; London basing above 1.1150, lower highs intact.
The hot US CPI drop from 1.1210 to the 1.1145 cpi low was half-retraced overnight, but late Asia broke below the 1.1158–1.1170 Asian range on lower highs. Early London has tested the 1.1150 london low twice, with price capped at the 1.1160 london high near the ema20 and sitting under a falling ema50 at 1.1165. RSI(14) is back at 39 after a dip to 29, and ATR(14) has picked up to 3.8 pips.
Support: 1.1150, 1.11448
Resistance: 1.11595, 1.11648, 1.11698
What it said to watch
A close below the 1.1150 london low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.1145 cpi low
Reclaiming the 1.1160 london high and ema20 opens a retest of the ema50 at 1.1165 and the lower-highs line
Acceptance back above the 1.1170 asian high negates the range break
ECB Nagel in 14 min and Lagarde at 09:45 UTC (high impact) could materially shift this read
Asian range broken lower; lower-high sequence below ema20 into London open.
Late Asia broke below the Asian range low near 1.1158 and printed a session low at 1.1151, with RSI(14) dipping to 28.8. The bounce into London open stalled at 1.1160, just at the ema20, which keeps the lower-highs trendline intact. Price sits below both EMAs with ATR(14) at 3.5 pips, still extending yesterday's slide after the hot US CPI toward the 1.1145 post-cpi low.
Support: 1.11506, 1.11448
Resistance: 1.11594, 1.11653, 1.11698
What it said to watch
ECB Cipollone (07:50 UTC) and Nagel (08:15 UTC) could jolt the London open; Lagarde at 09:45 UTC is the bigger risk to this read
Failure to hold the 1.1151 session low exposes the 1.1145 post-cpi low
An M15 close above the ema20 at 1.1159 breaks the lower-highs trendline; a reclaim of the ema50 at 1.1165 puts the 1.1170 asian high back in play
07:31 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since Asia · RSI 38 · price 1.11529
Asian range broken lower, bounce capped below ema20.
After the hot US CPI drop to the 1.1145 post-cpi low, price drifted into a 1.1158–1.1170 Asian range that gave way before London, printing a 1.1151 session low with RSI(14) touching 29. The bounce on the in-line German HICP stalled at 1.1160, below ema20, inside a lower-high chain from the 1.1169 asian high, with ATR(14) at 3.5 pips.
Support: 1.11506, 1.11448
Resistance: 1.11601, 1.11658, 1.11698
What it said to watch
M15 close back above ema20 at 1.1160 puts price back inside the Asian range and weakens the lower-high read
Failure to hold the 1.1151 session low exposes the 1.1145 post-cpi low
A break of the lower-high trendline from the asian high, then a close above ema50 at 1.1166, would invalidate the range-break read
Cipollone (07:50), Nagel (08:15) and Lagarde (09:45 UTC) could materially shift this read
07:16 UTC
Downtrend, below falling EMAs · RSI 39 · price 1.11556
Asian range broken lower, retesting from below.
Price broke below the Asian low at 1.1158 into the London open, extending the selloff that followed Tuesday's hot US CPI. It set a session low at 1.1151, with RSI(14) briefly dipping under 30. The in-line German HICP bar bounced only back to the broken level, under a falling ema20 and lower highs off the 1.1170 Asian high, with Tuesday's 1.1145 cpi low the next floor below.
Support: 1.11506, 1.11448
Resistance: 1.11583, 1.11606, 1.11698
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.1158 asian low and the 1.1161 ema20 would turn the break into a false break
Failure to hold the 1.1151 session low exposes the 1.1145 cpi low and extends the lower-low sequence
A push through the lower highs line and the 1.1170 asian high would negate the intraday downtrend read
ECB's Cipollone (07:50 UTC), Nagel (08:15) and Lagarde (09:45) could shift this read; HICP in line drew a muted reaction
Asian range broken lower, lower highs below ema20.
The hot US CPI selloff bottomed at the 1.1145 cpi low during NY. Asia's recovery stalled at the 1.1170 asian high, near the 38.2% fib of the CPI leg, with lower highs into the London open. Price then broke the 1.1158 asian low to a 1.1151 session low and sits below the ema20 (1.1161) and ema50, with RSI(14) at 37.9 after a dip to 28.8 and ATR(14) compressed at 3.4 pips.
Support: 1.11506, 1.11448
Resistance: 1.11583, 1.11612, 1.11698
What it said to watch
German final HICP at 07:00 UTC, then Cipollone, Nagel and Lagarde (09:45 UTC), could materially shift this read
M15 close back above the 1.1158 asian low and the ema20 at 1.1161 returns price to the Asian range
Failure to hold the 1.1151 session low exposes the 1.1145 cpi low
A break above the 1.1170 asian high and the 38.2% fib invalidates the lower-highs read
06:46 UTC
Downtrend, oversold into pre-London · RSI 29 · price 1.11516
Asian range broken lower, fresh session low, lower highs since 02:00 UTC.
EURUSD broke below the 1.1158–1.1170 Asian range in the last hour before London and printed a session low at 1.1151. RSI(14) is oversold at 28.8, price sits below both falling EMAs with the ema20 at 1.1162, and ATR is a quiet 3.3 pips. The move extends the hot US CPI selloff, with the 1.1145 cpi low the next reference below.
Support: 1.11506, 1.11448
Resistance: 1.11583, 1.11618, 1.11698
What it said to watch
German final HICP at 07:00 UTC (in 14 min), then Cipollone, Nagel and Lagarde at 09:45 UTC, could materially shift this read
An M15 close back above the 1.1158 asian low would turn the range break into a false break
Failure to hold the 1.1145 cpi low extends the lower-low sequence from Tuesday's CPI leg
A break of the lower-highs trendline near 1.1167 and a reclaim of the ema20 would neutralise the intraday downtrend read; the asian high at 1.1170 caps above
06:31 UTC
Downtrend, slipping out of Asian range · RSI 34 · price 1.11546
Post-CPI consolidation broken lower, lower highs since 02:00 UTC.
The hot US CPI print drove EURUSD down to a 1.1145 cpi low. The rebound stalled at the asian high of 1.1170, which is the 38.2% of the cpi drop fib. Late in the Asia session, a run of lower highs pushed price below the 1.1158 asian low, with price under a down-sloping ema20 at 1.1163 and RSI(14) easing to 34, not yet oversold.
Support: 1.11448, 1.1137
Resistance: 1.11583, 1.11628, 1.11698
What it said to watch
German final HICP at 07:00 UTC (29 min) could materially shift this read
A close back above the 1.1158 asian low turns the break into a false break
Failure to hold the 1.1145 cpi low exposes the 1.1137 monday low
A close above the lower highs line and the 1.1170 asian high negates the downtrend read
Lagarde at 09:45 UTC could add volatility, with ATR(14) compressed at 3.1 pips
06:16 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through Asia · RSI 37 · price 1.11571
Asian range 1.1158–1.1170 under pressure at the low.
Hot US CPI drove yesterday's 13:30 UTC drop to the 1.1145 post-cpi low. The NY bounce stalled at the 1.1170 asian high, and Asia has since printed lower highs. Price is pressing the 1.1157 session low, near the 50% recovery fib, below the ema20 at 1.1164, with RSI(14) at 36.7 and ATR(14) a compressed 3.2 pips ahead of the London open.
Support: 1.11569, 1.11448
Resistance: 1.11636, 1.11698
What it said to watch
German final HICP at 07:00 UTC (f/c 2.8% YoY) lands at the London open and could break the tight Asian range
M15 close below the 1.1157 session low extends the lower-high sequence toward the 1.1145 post-cpi low
Reclaim of the ema20 at 1.1164 and the lower-highs trendline neutralises the Asia drift; 1.1170 asian high caps above
Lagarde at 09:45 UTC could materially shift this read
06:01 UTC
Post-CPI downtrend, now ranging · RSI 40 · price 1.1159
Tight Asian range 1.1158–1.1170 under a 23.6% retracement cap.
The hot US CPI drove a sell-off to the 1.1145 cpi low. The rebound stalled at the 1.1170 asian high, which lines up with the 23.6% retracement of the 1.1251–1.1145 drop. Price is now pressing the 1.1158 asian low into the London open, below the ema20 and EMA50, with ATR(14) compressed at 3.2 pips.
Support: 1.11583, 1.1150, 1.11448
Resistance: 1.11642, 1.11698
What it said to watch
German final HICP at 07:00 UTC (~1h) and Lagarde at 09:45 UTC could break the compressed Asian range
M15 close below the 1.1158 asian low exposes the 1.1150 round number and the 1.1145 cpi low
Reclaim of the ema20 at 1.1164 and a close above the 1.1170 asian high breaks the range top and the 23.6% cap
Tight Asian range with lower highs, price at the range floor.
The hot US CPI selloff ran from 1.1251 to the 1.1145 post-cpi low. It then stalled into a 1.1158–1.1170 Asia session range, with the asia high capping at the 23.6% fib of that drop alongside ema50. Price is now pressing the asia low below both EMAs, with lower highs forming under ema20, RSI(14) at 41 and ATR compressed at 3.2 pips.
Support: 1.11583, 1.11448
Resistance: 1.11646, 1.11698
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1158 asia low breaks the Asian range and exposes the 1.1145 post-cpi low
Close above the 1.1170 asia high / ema50 clears the Asia lower highs and the 23.6% fib
German final HICP at 07:00 UTC (f/c 2.8% y/y) ahead of London open, then Lagarde at 09:45 UTC, could break the compressed range
05:31 UTC
Post-CPI downtrend, basing in a tight range · RSI 49 · price 1.1165
Late-Asia range 1.1158–1.1170 under ema50; lower highs from the CPI slide intact.
Hot US CPI extended the slide from the 1.1251 London high to the 1.1145 CPI low, and Asia has since held a 12-pip range. The Asian high at 1.1170 coincides with the 23.6% fib of the CPI drop and the ema50 (1.1169), which have capped two tests. Late in the Asia session, price sits flat on the ema20 with ATR(14) compressed to 3 pips and RSI(14) at 49.
Support: 1.1158, 1.1145
Resistance: 1.1170, 1.1194
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1170 Asian high and ema50 breaks the range top; the post-CPI high at 1.1194 is next overhead
Failure to hold the 1.1158 Asian low exposes the 1.1145 CPI low
German final HICP at 07:00 UTC lands near London open and could break the compressed range
Lagarde at 09:45 UTC is a high-impact risk for the read
Tight Asian range 1.1158–1.1170 above post-CPI low.
The hot US CPI print drove a ~105-pip slide from 1.1251 to the 1.1145 post-CPI low. The rebound has retraced only about a fifth of that drop on the cpi drop fib, and late Asia is pinned in a 1.1158–1.1170 range. Price sits on a flat ema20 at 1.1165, with the ema50 (1.11695) capping at the asian high, RSI(14) neutral at 50.6 and ATR(14) compressed at 3.1 pips.
Support: 1.1165, 1.11583, 1.11448
Resistance: 1.11698, 1.11786
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1170 asian high and ema50 breaks the range and opens the cpi bar low at 1.1179
Failure to hold the 1.1158 asian low and the rising lows line exposes the 1.1145 post-CPI low
German final HICP at 07:00 UTC (London open, f/c 2.8% y/y) could break the compressed range
Lagarde at 09:45 UTC is high impact and could materially shift this read
Tight Asian range 1.1158–1.1170 below the 23.6% fib.
The hot US CPI drove a 106-pip slide from 1.1251 to the 1.1145 cpi low. Since then price has built a 12-pip Asian range of 1.1158–1.1170, capped where the asian high meets the 23.6% CPI selloff fib and ema50 near 1.1170. Late in the Asia session price sits on the ema20 at 1.1165, with ATR(14) compressed to 3.2 pips and RSI(14) neutral at 49.
Support: 1.11583, 1.11448
Resistance: 1.11698, 1.11786
What it said to watch
German final HICP at 07:00 UTC, around London open, is the likely catalyst to resolve the Asian range
M15 close above the asian high / ema50 near 1.1170 exposes the cpi bar low at 1.1179
Failure to hold the asian low at 1.1158 reopens the 1.1145 cpi low
Lagarde at 09:45 UTC could materially shift this read
Asian range 1.1158–1.1170 holding above post-CPI low.
The hot US CPI print extended the slide from 1.1251 to a cpi low at 1.1145 during NY hours. Late in the Asia session, price is boxed between the asian low at 1.1158 and the asian high at 1.1170, with a swing low at 1.1160 just beneath. The asian high lines up with the ema50 and the 23.6% fib of the CPI drop. Price trades below the ema20 at 1.1165, and ATR(14) has compressed to 3.2 pips.
Support: 1.11604, 1.11583, 1.11448
Resistance: 1.1165, 1.11698
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1170 asian high clears the ema50 and the 23.6% fib, which opens the 38.2% near 1.1185
Failure to hold the 1.1160 swing low and the 1.1158 asian low exposes the 1.1145 cpi low and the rising lows line
German final HICP at 07:00 UTC is likely to break the compressed Asian range
Lagarde at 09:45 UTC could materially shift this read
04:31 UTC
Downtrend paused, Asia consolidation · RSI 47 · price 1.11643
Tight Asian range below falling EMA50 after post-CPI lower low.
The hot US CPI print drove a 1.1251–1.1145 slide into the NY session. Since then price has stalled in an 11-pip Asian range (1.1158–1.1170) capped at the 23.6% fib of the selloff. Price sits just below a flat ema20 at 1.1165 and a falling ema50 near 1.1170, with RSI 46.7 neutral and ATR at 3.3 pips showing compressed Asia conditions.
Support: 1.11583, 1.11448
Resistance: 1.11652, 1.11698, 1.11944
What it said to watch
German final HICP at 07:00 UTC lands on the London open and is likely to resolve the Asian range
Failure to hold the asian low at 1.1158 exposes the cpi low at 1.1145
M15 close above the asian high and ema50 near 1.1170 opens the cpi bounce high at 1.1194
Lagarde at 09:45 UTC could materially shift this read
Tight Asian range 1.1158–1.1170 above the 1.1145 CPI low.
The hot US CPI beat knocked EURUSD from 1.1210 to the 1.1145 cpi low during NY hours. Late Asia now holds a 12-pip range between the 1.1158 asian low and 1.1170 asian high. Price sits just under the flat EMA20 and the declining EMA50, with RSI(14) at 45.7 and ATR(14) compressed at 3.4 pips.
Support: 1.11583, 1.11448
Resistance: 1.11698, 1.11944
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1170 asian high (EMA50 at 1.1170) breaks the Asian range to the upside; next is the 1.1194 cpi bounce high
Failure to hold the 1.1158 asian low exposes the 1.1145 cpi low
German final HICP at 07:00 UTC, then Nagel 08:15 and Lagarde 09:45 UTC, could break the compression
04:01 UTC
Post-CPI downtrend, stalled into a tight range · RSI 43 · price 1.11633
Asian range 1.1158–1.1170 below ema20 and ema50.
Hot US CPI drove a ~106-pip selloff from 1.1251 to the 1.1145 post-cpi low. Price has since compressed into a 1.1158–1.1170 Asian range, capped near the 23.6% level of the CPI selloff fib, and sits mid-range below a flat ema20 (1.1166) and a declining ema50 (1.1171). RSI is at 43.4 and ATR is down to 3.4 pips, with no setup in play late in the Asia session.
Support: 1.11583, 1.11448
Resistance: 1.11655, 1.11698
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1170 asian high and the ema50 breaks the Asian range higher, with the 38.2% CPI selloff fib near 1.1185 next
Failure to hold the 1.1158 asian low exposes the 1.1145 post-cpi low
Repeated rejection at the ema20 keeps the range capped from above
German final HICP at 07:00 UTC and Lagarde at 09:45 UTC could break the compressed range
03:46 UTC
Post-CPI downtrend, now basing in a tight range · RSI 45 · price 1.11623
Asian range 1.1158–1.1170 capped at the 50% retrace.
The hot US CPI print dropped EUR/USD from 1.1210 to a 1.1145 post-CPI low. Since then price has retraced into a late-Asia range of 1.1158–1.1170, where the Asian high, the 50% fib of the post-CPI leg and the EMA50 at 1.1171 have rejected three advances. Price sits back below the EMA20 at 1.1166, RSI(14) is neutral at 44.8 and ATR(14) is tight at 3.4 pips.
Support: 1.11583, 1.11448
Resistance: 1.11658, 1.11698, 1.11944
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1170 asian high and EMA50 breaks the range top and opens the 1.1194 cpi bounce high
Failure to hold the 1.1158 asian low exposes the 1.1145 post-cpi low
Reclaim of the ema20 at 1.1166 is the first sign the range top is being pressed again
German final HICP at 07:00 UTC and Lagarde at 09:45 UTC could materially shift this read around London open
03:31 UTC
Post-CPI downtrend, now flat · RSI 48 · price 1.11647
Tight Asian range under the ema50 after the NY sell-off low.
The hot US CPI print drove a slide from 1.1211 to the cpi low at 1.1145 late in NY hours. Mid-Asia session, price is boxed between the asian low at 1.1158 and the asian high at 1.1170, which matches the 38.2% retracement of the CPI drop and sits just under the falling ema50. Price is marginally below the flat ema20, with RSI(14) at 47.8 and ATR compressed at 3.5 pips, so no setup is in play.
Support: 1.1158, 1.1145, 1.1137
Resistance: 1.11661, 1.1170, 1.11713
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1170 asian high and the ema50 at 1.1171 breaks the Asian range top
Loss of the 1.1158 asian low exposes the cpi low at 1.1145, then the 1.1137 monday low
German final HICP at 07:00 UTC and Lagarde at 09:45 UTC could materially shift this read
03:16 UTC
Post-CPI downtrend, basing in a tight recovery · RSI 55 · price 1.11684
Higher lows off the 1.1145 low; Asian range 1.1158–1.1170 capped at the fib.
The hot US CPI print drove a 66-pip slide from 1.1211 to the 1.1145 cpi low during NY hours. Price has since built higher lows and is now compressed in a 1.1158–1.1170 Asian range. The asia high at 1.1170 has been rejected several times and sits on the 38.2% post-CPI fib, with ema50 at 1.11715 just overhead and ema20 at 1.11661 underneath.
Support: 1.11661, 1.11583, 1.11448
Resistance: 1.11698, 1.11715, 1.11758
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1170 asia high and ema50 at 1.11715 breaks the fib cap and opens the 1.1176 breakdown area
Loss of the 1.1158 asia low breaks the rising support of higher lows and puts the 1.1145 cpi low back in view
ATR at 3.5 pips shows a compressed Asian range; German HICP at 07:00 UTC and Lagarde at 09:45 UTC could expand it sharply
Tight Asian range 1.1158–1.1170 above the NY cpi low, higher lows.
The hot US CPI print extended the slide from the 1.1251 London high to the 1.1145 cpi low in NY. Since then price has based in a 1.1158–1.1170 Asian range, a higher low above the cpi low, sitting just under the ema20 with the ema50 at 1.1172 capping just above the Asian high. ATR(14) is compressed at 3.4 pips and RSI(14) is neutral at 47.7.
Support: 1.11583, 1.11448
Resistance: 1.11698, 1.11716
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1170 asian high and the ema50 at 1.1172 breaks the Asian range higher
Loss of the 1.1158 asian low exposes the 1.1145 cpi low, and a break there resumes the lower-low sequence
German final HICP at 07:00 UTC and Lagarde at 09:45 UTC could expand range well beyond the current 3.4-pip ATR
02:46 UTC
Post-CPI downtrend, now flat and compressing · RSI 44 · price 1.11633
Tight range under 38.2% of the CPI drop, lower highs vs EMA50.
The hot US CPI drop ran from 1.12108 to the cpi low at 1.11448. Price has since held an ~11-pip band, with the Asian low at 1.11583 and the range top at 1.11698 capping right at the 38.2% fib. Late in the Asia session, price sits below the flat ema20 (1.11659) and the declining ema50 (1.11719), with RSI 43.6 and ATR compressed at 3.4 pips.
Support: 1.11583, 1.11448
Resistance: 1.11659, 1.11698, 1.11719
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the range top at 1.11698 and the ema50 at 1.11719 breaks the consolidation above the 38.2% fib of the CPI drop
Failure to hold the asian low at 1.11583 exposes the cpi low at 1.11448
German final HICP at 07:00 UTC (f/c 2.8%) is due during the London open and could break the compression
Lagarde at 09:45 UTC is high impact and could materially shift this read
02:31 UTC
Post-CPI downtrend, now flat in Asia · RSI 50 · price 1.11658
Tight Asian range 1.1158–1.1170 above the 1.1145 NY low.
The hot US CPI print drove a 100-pip NY selloff to the 1.1145 cpi low. EURUSD has since held a 1.1158–1.1170 Asian range, with the asia high capping twice at the 23.6% fib of the CPI selloff. Price sits on the flat EMA20 and below a falling EMA50 at 1.1172, RSI(14) neutral at 50 and ATR(14) a quiet 3.5 pips.
Support: 1.11583, 1.11448
Resistance: 1.11698, 1.11722, 1.11786
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1170 asia high and ema50 at 1.1172 opens the cpi bar low at 1.1179 and the 38.2% fib near 1.1185
Break of the 1.1158 asia low undercuts the rising lows line and exposes the 1.1145 cpi low
German final HICP at 07:00 UTC and Lagarde at 09:45 UTC could break the Asian range
02:16 UTC
Post-CPI downtrend, basing in tight range · RSI 53 · price 1.11678
Higher lows off 1.1145, capped below ema50 in the Asian range.
The hot US CPI print drove a 66-pip leg from 1.1211 to the 1.1145 post-CPI low. A slow higher-low recovery has since stalled in a tight Asian range of 1.1158–1.1170, with ATR(14) compressed to 3.5 pips. Price sits above the ema20 at 1.1166 and below the ema50 at 1.1173, while the asian high caps just under the 38.2% fib of the CPI leg.
Support: 1.11661, 1.11583, 1.11448
Resistance: 1.11698, 1.11725, 1.11786
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 1.1170 asian high and the ema50 near 1.1173 breaks the consolidation and opens the 1.1179 cpi bar low
Failure at the 1.1158 asian low breaks the rising support line and exposes the 1.1145 post-CPI low
German final HICP at 07:00 UTC and Lagarde at 09:45 UTC could materially shift this read
02:01 UTC
Post-CPI downtrend, now in a corrective bounce · RSI 54 · price 1.11686
Higher lows off 1.1145, capped at 50% retrace.
The hot US CPI print drove a slide to the 1.1145 cpi low. Price has since climbed on rising support back to the 50% fib near 1.1170, where the late-NY session high and ema50 (1.1173) cap it. A dip to the 1.1158 asian low was reclaimed, and price is back above ema20 (1.1166) with ATR compressed to 3.5 pips.
Support: 1.11659, 1.11583, 1.11448
Resistance: 1.11696, 1.11726, 1.11944
What it said to watch
A close above 1.1173 (ema50) clears the 50% fib and opens the 1.1194 post-cpi hi
A break back below the 1.1158 asian low and rising support exposes the 1.1145 cpi low
German final HICP at 07:00 UTC (~5h) and Lagarde at 09:45 UTC could break the compressed range
Tight Asian range 1.1158–1.1170 above rising lows.
The hot US CPI print drove EURUSD from 1.1210 to the 1.1145 cpi low. The pair has since retraced about a third of that leg along rising lows. In the Asia session, a dip to the 1.1158 session low quickly failed and price closed back above the ema20, with the 1.1170 session high and the down-sloping ema50 at 1.1173 still capping.
Support: 1.11656, 1.11583, 1.11448
Resistance: 1.11696, 1.11728, 1.11786
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1170 session high and the 1.1173 ema50 opens the 1.1179 cpi bar low
Failure to hold the 1.1158 session low breaks the rising lows and exposes the 1.1145 cpi low
German HICP at 07:00 UTC (f/c 2.8% YoY) and Lagarde at 09:45 UTC could materially shift this read
ATR at 3.6 pips: Asian range compression is likely to give way at the London open
01:31 UTC
Post-CPI downtrend, basing in a tight range · RSI 43 · price 1.1163
7-pip Asian range under falling ema50, floor briefly swept.
Hot US CPI took EURUSD from the 1.1251 London high to the 1.1145 cpi low. Price has since held a 1.1162–1.1170 range through the Asia session. The 01:15 UTC bar swept the range floor to the 1.1158 asian low and closed back at 1.1163, under the ema20 at 1.1165 and the falling ema50 at 1.1173. ATR has compressed to 3.5 pips.
Support: 1.11583, 1.11448
Resistance: 1.11654, 1.11696, 1.1173
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 1.1158 asian low turns the sweep into a lower-low and puts the 1.1145 cpi low back in play
A reclaim of the ema20 and a close above the 1.1170 asian high clears the 23.6% retracement of the post-CPI drop. That would bring the ema50 at 1.1173 into view
German final HICP at 07:00 UTC, then Cipollone and Nagel, could break the Asian range at London open
ATR at 3.5 pips reflects a quiet Asian range, not the post-CPI move size
Tight 1.1160–1.1170 range under the 38.2% fib, range low under test.
The hot US CPI print drove a slide to the 1.1145 cpi low. The rebound stalled at the 1.1170 session high, right at the 38.2% fib of that drop, and price has since held a 1.1160–1.1170 range through the NY close. Early in the Asia session price is pressing the 1.1160 range low, below the ema20 (1.11656) and the falling ema50 (1.11734), with RSI(14) at 37.4 and ATR(14) compressed to 3.3 pips.
Support: 1.1160, 1.1153, 1.1145
Resistance: 1.11656, 1.1170, 1.11734
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1160 range low exposes the 1.1153 swing low, then the 1.1145 cpi low
Reclaim of ema20 at 1.11656 and a close above the 1.1170 session high (38.2% fib) negates the range-low test
ema50 at 1.11734 caps any push beyond the session high
German final HICP at 07:00 UTC (~6h, f/c 2.8% YoY), followed by Cipollone and Nagel, could break the compression
The hot US CPI print drove a slide from 1.1251 to a 1.1145 swing low in NY. Price has since held a 1.1162–1.1170 range into the Asia session, with the asian high capping just at the 23.6% fib and the ema50 overhead at 1.1174. ATR(14) has compressed to 3.1 pips and RSI 45.6 is neutral, with price just under the ema20.
Support: 1.11615, 1.1150, 1.11448
Resistance: 1.11696, 1.11739, 1.11864
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1170 asian high and ema50 at 1.1174 opens the cpi bounce high near 1.1186
Break of the 1.1162 range low exposes the 1.1150 round number and the 1.1145 swing low
German final HICP at 07:00 UTC, with Cipollone and Nagel shortly after, could break the range
Tight range 1.1162–1.1170 above the 1.1145 CPI low.
The hot US CPI print took EURUSD from the 1.1251 London high to a 1.1145 cpi low in NY. Since then it has held a 1.1162–1.1170 band, with the overnight hi capping at the 23.6% retrace of the drop. Early Asia session trades just under the ema20 at 1.1166 and holds the 1.1164 asia low, and ATR(14) has compressed to 3.2 pips.
Support: 1.1164, 1.11615, 1.11448
Resistance: 1.11696, 1.11743, 1.11786
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1170 overnight hi (23.6% fib) puts the ema50 at 1.1174 and the 1.1179 cpi bar low in play
Break below the 1.1162 range low exposes the 1.1145 cpi low
German final HICP at 07:00 UTC (~6h) and Cipollone/Nagel after it could break the compressed range
00:31 UTC
Post-CPI downtrend, basing in a tight range · RSI 50 · price 1.11668
Higher lows off the 1.1145 low, compressing below ema50.
The hot US CPI print drove a 106-pip CPI selloff from the 1.1251 London high to a 1.1145 post-CPI low late in NY. Price has since ground higher into a 1.1162–1.1170 range into the Asia session. The current bar sits just above the ema20 at 1.1166 and below the ema50 at 1.1175, with RSI flat at 50.4 and ATR compressed to 3.1 pips.
Support: 1.11663, 1.11615, 1.11448
Resistance: 1.11696, 1.11747, 1.11786
What it said to watch
A close above the 1.1170 session high and the ema50 at 1.1175 puts the 1.1179 CPI bar low back in play
Failure to hold the 1.1162 range floor exposes the 1.1145 post-CPI low
German final HICP at 07:00 UTC, then Cipollone and Nagel, could break the compression
Tight 1.1162–1.1170 consolidation above the 1.1145 CPI low, early Asia session.
Hot US CPI broke the pair from 1.1210 to a 1.1145 CPI low during NY hours, and it has since based in a 1.1162–1.1170 range with the range top at the 23.6% fib of the 1.1251–1.1145 drop. Price is pinned between ema20 and ema50 at 1.1175, RSI(14) neutral at 49.7 and ATR compressed to 3.2 pips as the Asia session opens.
Support: 1.1162, 1.1145
Resistance: 1.1170, 1.1175, 1.1185
What it said to watch
M15 close above ema50 at 1.1175 exposes the fib 38.2 at 1.1185
Failure to hold the 1.1162 range floor puts the 1.1145 cpi low back in focus
German final HICP at 07:00 UTC, then ECB's Cipollone and Nagel, could break the range
00:01 UTC
Post-CPI downtrend, now consolidating · RSI 52 · price 1.11678
Tight 1.1162–1.1170 consolidation above the post-CPI low, with lows rising.
The hot US CPI print at 13:30 UTC broke the London range. The sell-off ran to a 1.1145 post-CPI low before the recovery trendline of rising lows lifted price into a tight 1.1162–1.1170 consolidation, capped at the late ny high on the 23.6% fib of the day's high-low drop. Asia session is opening with ATR(14) compressed to 3.2 pips; price sits above ema20 at 1.1166 but below ema50 at 1.1175, and RSI(14) is neutral at 52.
Support: 1.1166, 1.11615, 1.11448
Resistance: 1.11696, 1.11753, 1.11786
What it said to watch
M15 close above the late ny high at 1.1170 and ema50 at 1.1175 opens the cpi bar low at 1.1179
Break of the range low at 1.1162 and the recovery trendline returns focus to the post-cpi low at 1.1145
German final HICP at 07:00 UTC (f/c 2.8% YoY) could break the current compression; ECB's Cipollone follows at 07:50 UTC