Lower highs and lower lows since Tuesday; tight late-NY band.
EURUSD has printed lower highs since Tuesday's 1.1251 week high. The hot US CPI print triggered the NY-session break, and the London and NY sessions since have extended the downtrend to a 1.1045 week low on Thursday, more than 200 pips down on the week's decline. Thursday's London bounce stalled at the thu high of 1.1102, right at a falling ema50 (1.1101), and supply returned in NY to take out the 1.1066 prior low. Price now sits below the ema20 at 1.1071 in a 1.1045–1.1057 band, with ATR(14) easing to 10.9 pips and RSI(14) flat near 32, just above oversold, while the 1.1000 psych level sits below.
Support: 1.10454, 1.1000
Resistance: 1.10661, 1.10714, 1.11024
What it said to watch
Hourly close below the 1.1045 week low extends the lower-low sequence toward 1.1000 psych
Recovery through the 1.1066 prior low and ema20 at 1.1071 would bring the lower highs trendline into test
Close above the 1.1102 thu high, beyond the 23.6% retracement of the week's decline (~1.1094), breaks the lower-high sequence
Fed's Williams in ~30 min, then Friday's EZ GDP and US PPI, could materially shift this read
22:01 UTC
Downtrend, selling pace easing · RSI 33 · price 1.10556
Lower highs and lower lows since Tuesday's CPI reversal.
After a Monday-Tuesday push from the 1.1137 weekly open to a 1.1251 high, the hot US CPI print flipped the pair in Tuesday's NY session. Each day since has set a lower high and lower low, and Thursday's NY sell-off made a new week low at 1.10454. Price is steadying near 1.1055, below the EMA(20) at 1.10733 and the EMA(50) at 1.1103, with RSI(14) at 33. RSI bottomed at 25.7 on that low, above the 24 it hit at Thursday's Asia-session low: a mild bullish divergence inside the downtrend.
Support: 1.10454, 1.1000
Resistance: 1.10733, 1.11024
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.11024 lower high (Thursday London) breaks the lower-high sequence and the trendline
Repeated rejection at the ema20 (1.10733) keeps the downtrend structure intact
Failure to hold the 1.10454 week low extends lower lows toward the 1.1000 round number
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC and Friday's US PPI (13:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
Friday's EZ inflation prints and ECB speakers in the London morning could change this read
Lower highs and lower lows since Tuesday's 1.1251 high.
The week opened at 1.1137 and rallied to 1.1251 by Tuesday's London open. The hot US CPI print (0.4% m/m) then broke the advance during NY hours, and every session since has carved a lower high and a lower low. Thursday's London bounce stalled at the 1.1102 thu high before NY selling pushed the pair to a 1.1045 week low, below the 1.1066 low cited in the macro digest. Price sits below a falling EMA(20) at 1.1075 and EMA(50) at 1.1105, while RSI(14) at 33.4 made a marginally higher low (25.7 vs 24) on the new price low, a mild bullish divergence inside an intact downtrend.
Support: 1.10454, 1.1000
Resistance: 1.10665, 1.10752, 1.11024
What it said to watch
An H1 close back above the ema20 at 1.1075, and the 1.1066 prior low above it, would be the first break in the lower-high sequence
A clear break above the 1.1102 thu high and the descending trendline would invalidate the downtrend read
Failure to hold the 1.1045 week low exposes the 1.1000 round number
Fed's Williams in ~2.5h and Friday's EZ inflation, Q3 GDP and US PPI (13:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows from 1.1251 week high, price under both EMAs.
The week opened near 1.1137 and rallied to a 1.1251 week high in Tuesday's London session. It reversed sharply into NY after the hot US CPI print, and has carved lower highs and lower lows since. Thursday's London bounce stalled at a 1.1102 lower high, and NY selling then broke the 1.1066 Asia low to a 1.1045 week low, with price below a falling EMA(20) at 1.1077 and EMA(50) at 1.1107. RSI(14) at 32.5 is lifting off a 25.7 trough, slightly above the 24 reading at Thursday's Asia low despite the lower price low, a mild bullish divergence, while ATR(14) has expanded to 12.7 pips.
Support: 1.10454, 1.1000
Resistance: 1.10661, 1.10772, 1.11024
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.1045 week low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.1000 psych level
H1 closes back above the 1.1066 Asia low and the ema20 at 1.1077 would test the lower highs trendline
A break above the 1.1102 lower high and the 38.2% fib of the selloff near 1.1124 would undercut the downtrend read
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC tonight, then Friday's Eurozone HICP (08:00 UTC) and US PPI (13:30 UTC), could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since Tuesday's CPI turn.
Monday's rally from the 1.1137 weekly open peaked at the 1.1251 week high on Tuesday. The hot US CPI in Tuesday's NY session then started the CPI leg lower, and each session since has printed a lower high. Thursday's London bounce met rejection at 1.1102, a lower high below 1.1100. NY then cut through the Asian low at 1.1066 to a fresh week low at 1.1045, leaving price under a falling EMA(20) at 1.1079 and EMA(50) at 1.1109. RSI(14) at 28.7 is oversold and ATR has expanded from 10 to 13 pips; the 25.7 RSI reading at the new low only marginally held above Thursday's Asian 24.0.
Support: 1.10454, 1.1000
Resistance: 1.10661, 1.10794, 1.11024
What it said to watch
Lagarde at 19:30 UTC (29 min) could materially shift this read
H1 acceptance back above the Asian low at 1.1066 and the ema20 at 1.1079 would ease downside pressure
A close above the 1.1102 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 1.1045 week low puts the 1.1000 round number in view
Williams at 23:30 UTC and Friday's 13:30 UTC US PPI are the next USD catalysts
18:01 UTC
Downtrend, oversold after NY leg lower · RSI 26 · price 1.10467
Lower highs and lower lows since Tuesday's 1.1251 high.
A two-day dollar-led slide began with Tuesday's hot US CPI print and has carried EURUSD from the 1.1251 week high to a fresh week low at 1.1045. Each bounce has set a lower high, with Thursday's London high at 1.1102 stalling just above a falling ema20. The NY session leg broke the prior low at 1.1066 as ATR expanded to 13.3 pips. RSI at 25.7 is oversold, and it sits marginally above its 24.0 reading at that earlier low despite a lower price, a mild bullish divergence.
Support: 1.10454, 1.1000
Resistance: 1.10661, 1.10825, 1.11024
What it said to watch
Fed's Daly and Schmid within the hour and Lagarde at 19:30 UTC could materially shift this read
An H1 close back above the prior low at 1.1066 would mark the NY breakdown as a false break
A close above ema20 (1.1083) and the London high at 1.1102 breaks the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the week low at 1.1045 leaves the 1.1000 psych handle as the next reference
US PPI Fri 13:30 UTC is the next scheduled catalyst for the downtrend
Lower highs and lower lows since Tuesday's week high.
EURUSD has carved lower highs since Tuesday's London-open week high at 1.12511. Tuesday's US CPI beat broke the pair lower in NY hours, and Wednesday's NY session extended the slide as Fed-hike repricing widened the dollar's rate edge. Thursday's bounce to a lower high at 1.11024 faded at the falling EMA(20), and NY hours then cut through Thursday's Asia low at 1.10661 to a fresh week low at 1.10533. RSI(14) at 28.3 is oversold but troughed above its Asia-session low, a modest bullish divergence, while ATR has expanded to 13.3 pips.
Support: 1.10533, 1.1000
Resistance: 1.10661, 1.10862, 1.11024
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the asia low at 1.10661 would undercut the breakdown read; the ema20 at 1.10862 and the lower-highs trendline sit just above
Failure to hold the 1.10533 week low leaves the 1.1000 psych level as the next reference
Lagarde speaks at 19:30 UTC; Daly and Schmid speak before her
US PPI Fri 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
A break above the 1.11024 lower high would end the lower-highs sequence
Lower highs and lower lows since Tuesday's week high.
EUR/USD has unwound Monday's rally to the 1.1251 week high since Tuesday's London session. The hot US CPI beat extended the slide, and each NY session has printed a fresh low, the latest a 1.1053 week low as hawkish Fed repricing weighed. Price sits below the EMA(20) at 1.1089 and the EMA(50) at 1.1116, and today's London high at 1.1102 capped the rebound to set another lower high. RSI(14) at 32 is holding above the 22–26 readings from the Asia lows despite the lower price low, a bullish divergence, while ATR expanded to 13.2 pips into NY.
Support: 1.10533, 1.1000
Resistance: 1.10894, 1.11024, 1.11163
What it said to watch
H1 close above the london high at 1.1102 breaks the lower-highs trendline and the lower-high sequence
Reclaim of the ema50 at 1.1116 would put the 38.2% level of the week decline fib (~1.1129) in play
Failure to hold the week low at 1.1053 leaves the 1.1000 psych level as the next reference
Fed speakers from 16:30 UTC and Lagarde at 19:30 UTC could materially shift this read
US PPI Fri 13:30 UTC is the next scheduled volatility point for the dollar leg
Lower highs from Tuesday's 1.1251 peak; price just above the week low.
EUR/USD peaked at 1.1251 in Tuesday's London session. Tuesday's hot US CPI print then drove a NY-led slide, with lower highs at 1.1170 and 1.1102, down to the week low at 1.1066 in Thursday's Asia session. Thursday's London rebound stalled below the 23.6% retracement of the Tue-Thu decline, and the NY session met rejection near EMA(20) at 1.1092, leaving price under it and under EMA(50) at 1.1118. RSI(14) recovered from sub-25 oversold readings to 46 before slipping back to 35, while ATR expanded to 12.5 pips.
Support: 1.10661, 1.1000
Resistance: 1.10918, 1.11024, 1.11183
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.1066 week low confirms a lower low and puts the 1.1000 psych level in view
H1 close above the 1.1102 lower high breaks the sequence of lower highs and brings EMA(50) at 1.1118 into play
Lagarde at 19:30 UTC today could materially shift this read; a hawkish lean beyond December would test the ema20/lower high zone
US PPI Fri 13:30 UTC (core y/y f/c 5%) is the next high-impact risk to the 1.1066 week low
Lower highs from 1.12511; first higher low at 1.10754 under EMA(20).
The week opened at 1.11374 and ran to a 1.12511 high in Tuesday's London session. The hot US CPI print in NY hours reversed it, and the sell-off extended through Wednesday's London-NY transition to a 1.10661 week low in Thursday's Asia session, the 18-month low. Since then the bounce stalled at 1.10024's neighbour 1.11024, short of the 23.6% retracement of the Tue–Thu sell-off, and a higher low at 1.10754 printed into the US claims data. Price sits just under a flattening EMA(20) at 1.10937 and the lower-highs trendline, with RSI(14) recovered from the low 20s to 42.
Support: 1.10754, 1.10661
Resistance: 1.10937, 1.11024, 1.11201
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.11024 bounce high and the lower-highs trendline breaks the lower-high sequence and puts ema50 at 1.11201 in view
Failure to hold the 1.10754 higher low brings the 1.10661 week low back into play
Lagarde at 19:30 UTC today could materially shift this read; a hawkish lean targets the 1.1100 area
Fedspeak this session (Barr 15:00, Goolsbee 16:30, Daly 18:10 UTC) and Friday's 13:30 UTC PPI are the USD-side risks
Lower highs and lower lows since Tuesday's 1.1251 high.
EUR/USD has printed lower highs and lower lows since Tuesday's 1.1251 week high. The hot US CPI print in NY hours broke the structure, and Wednesday's push into the NY open extended it to a week low of 1.1066 in Thursday's Asia session. The London bounce was rejected at the 1.1102 London high, short of the 23.6% retracement near 1.1110, and price has slipped back below ema20 (1.1094) with RSI(14) recovering from the low-20s to 41. The weekly open at 1.1137 lines up with the 38.2% retracement of the week's decline.
Support: 1.10796, 1.10661, 1.1000
Resistance: 1.10943, 1.11024, 1.11374
What it said to watch
US Initial Jobless Claims in ~30 min and Lagarde at 19:30 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 close back above ema20 and the 1.1102 London high would break the lower-highs line and open the 1.1137 weekly open
Failure to hold the 1.1080 midday low exposes the 1.1066 week low; a break there extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.1000 round number
Lower highs since Tuesday; corrective bounce off week low.
The hot US CPI print in Tuesday's NY session turned the week. From the 1.12511 Tuesday London high, EUR/USD sold off in a sequence of lower highs to a week low at 1.10661 in Thursday's Asia session, and price stays below a falling EMA(50) at 1.11228. Thursday's London rebound capped at the 1.11024 london high, and price is now pinned just under a flattening EMA(20) at 1.1095. RSI(14) has recovered to 43.8 from the low 20s, and its higher low at the week low marks a bullish divergence.
Support: 1.10854, 1.10661, 1.1000
Resistance: 1.1095, 1.11024, 1.11305
What it said to watch
H1 close back above ema20 and the 1.11024 london high breaks the lower-highs trendline and puts the 1.11305 prior shelf in play
Loss of the 1.10854 london low reopens the 1.10661 week low; a break there extends the downtrend toward the 1.1000 psych level
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and the Fed speaker slate through the NY session could materially shift this read
Lagarde at 19:30 UTC is the high-impact EUR risk for the cpi selloff structure
11:01 UTC
Downtrend, momentum easing off the low · RSI 47 · price 1.10965
Lower highs since Tuesday's high; corrective bounce from the week low.
Tuesday's hot US CPI flipped the week. From the 1.1251 London-open high the pair sold off through NY, extended lower in Wednesday's NY session and printed the 1.1066 week low in today's Asia session. London has since lifted price back above a flattening EMA(20) at 1.1095, and RSI(14) has recovered from the low 20s to 46.5; the higher RSI reading at the week low is a mild bullish divergence, with ATR compressing to 10.6 pips. Above, the ema50 at 1.1124 and the week open at 1.1137, which lines up with the 38.2% retracement of the CPI selloff, mark where the lower-high sequence has been capping.
Support: 1.10953, 1.10665, 1.1000
Resistance: 1.11024, 1.1124, 1.11374
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the ema20 and the 1.1071 higher low exposes the 1.1066 week low
Loss of the week low opens the 1.1000 psych level
A break of the 1.1102 session high puts the ema50 at 1.1124 in play; acceptance above the week open at 1.1137 would challenge the lower-high read
US jobless claims at 13:30 UTC and Lagarde at 19:30 UTC could materially shift this read
10:01 UTC
Downtrend, momentum easing off the low · RSI 45 · price 1.10942
Lower highs from Tuesday's 1.1251 peak; first higher low forming above week low.
Tuesday's 1.1251 week high gave way after the hot US CPI print, and the NY-hours selling on Wednesday took out the 1.1100 pivot before an Asia-session extension to the 1.1066 week low on Thursday. RSI(14) bottomed at 24 there versus 14 at Wednesday's 1.1082 low, a bullish RSI divergence. The London bounce has carried price back to the flattening EMA(20) at 1.1095 from below, with a higher low at 1.1071 underneath and EMA(50) at 1.1125 still declining.
Support: 1.10822, 1.10705, 1.10661
Resistance: 1.10951, 1.1100, 1.11251
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 1.1100 pivot would take price past EMA(20) and the Thursday rebound high, putting EMA(50) at 1.1125 and the 38.2% fib near 1.1137 in view
Rejection at EMA(20) and a break below the 1.1071 higher low reopens the 1.1066 week low; a close below it extends the lower-low sequence
Holding above Wednesday's low at 1.1082 keeps the rebound structure intact
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and the Fed speaker slate into the NY session could shift the read
Lagarde at 19:30 UTC is the high-impact EUR risk for this week's structure
Lower highs from Tuesday's 1.1251 top; bounce off the week low into the broken range floor.
The week peaked at 1.1251 in Tuesday's London session. The hot US CPI at the NY open then drove a 185-pip slide that broke the 1.1100 range floor in Wednesday's NY session, and Asia extended it to a 1.1066 week low on Thursday. That week low came with RSI(14) near 24, against 14 at the Wed low at 1.1082. The bullish divergence preceded a London-open bounce that has carried price back to 1.1093, just under ema20 at 1.1095. Lower highs since Tuesday remain intact while price holds below the range floor and ema50 at 1.1126.
Support: 1.10822, 1.10661
Resistance: 1.10952, 1.1100, 1.11264
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1100 range floor and the 1.1110 23.6% retracement of the Tue-Thu drop would point to a failed range break
Rejection at ema20 and a close back below the Wed low at 1.1082 reopens the week low at 1.1066
A break of the 1.1066 week low resumes the lower-low sequence
US Initial Jobless Claims (13:30 UTC), Fed speakers through NY hours and Lagarde at 19:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows from Tuesday's 1.1251 top; small base above 1.1066.
The week opened near 1.1137 and climbed to 1.1251 into Tuesday's London session. The hot US CPI print (0.4% m/m vs 0.3% expected) then reversed that rally, and Wednesday's NY session broke the 1.1100 range base down to the 1.1082 wed low. Thursday's Asia session extended the slide to a 1.1066 week low, but RSI(14) bottomed near 24 against Wednesday's 14, a bullish divergence, and a higher low has since printed at 1.1071. Price still sits below a falling EMA(20) at 1.1096 and EMA(50) at 1.1128, and the CPI leg is retracing only at its shallow end.
Support: 1.10822, 1.10705, 1.10661
Resistance: 1.10955, 1.11003, 1.11278
What it said to watch
H1 close above the ema20 (1.1096) and the 1.1100 range base would break the lower-high sequence and test the divergence
Failure to hold the 1.1071 higher low and the 1.1066 week low confirms another lower-low and voids the divergence
A slip back under the 1.1082 wed low puts the Thursday base under pressure
EMA50 at 1.1128 sits near the 38.2% retracement of the CPI leg and is the next structural cap if 1.1100 is reclaimed
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and Lagarde at 19:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since Tuesday's CPI reversal; holding under 1.1100.
Tuesday's hot US CPI reversed the climb from the 1.1137 weekly open to 1.1251, and the CPI sell-off ran through NY hours. Wednesday's London selling then broke the 1.1100 range floor. Asia set a fresh week low at 1.1066 today with RSI(14) at 26, against 14 on Wednesday's flush, a bullish divergence with RSI now at 29 and oversold. Price sits below a falling EMA(20) at 1.1097 and EMA(50) at 1.1130, and the Asia bounce stalled near the Wednesday low at 1.1083 on a run of lower highs.
Support: 1.10661, 1.1000
Resistance: 1.10829, 1.10966, 1.11295
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 1.1083 wed low and the lower highs line points to the divergence playing out
Reclaiming the ema20 at 1.1097 and the 1.1100 range floor would neutralise the breakdown read
Failure to hold the 1.1066 week low exposes the 1.1000 psych level
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC, Fed speakers from 14:00 UTC and Lagarde at 19:30 UTC could materially shift this read
EMA50 at 1.1130 lines up with the 38.2% retracement of the CPI sell-off near the weekly open
Lower highs and lower lows since Tuesday's 1.1251 week high; the 1.1100 range floor is broken.
The week high at 1.1251 came at Tuesday's London open. The US CPI beat then flipped the week, and the NY session drove a near-70-pip drop, followed by a second leg through the 1.1100 range floor in Wednesday's London-NY transition. Thursday's Asia session printed a fresh week low at 1.1066. RSI(14) held near 24–26 there versus 14 at Wednesday's low, a bullish divergence, though price stays below a falling ema20 (1.0999) that capped the Asia bounce near 1.1100. Overhead, the ema50 (1.1132) and the weekly open (1.1137) cluster close to the 38.2% fib of the Tuesday-to-Thursday decline.
Support: 1.10661, 1.1000
Resistance: 1.10992, 1.11319, 1.11374
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the ema20 / 1.1100 former floor would challenge the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 1.1066 week low confirms another lower-low, with the 1.1000 round number next
ema50 and weekly open at 1.1132–1.1137, near the fib 38.2%, mark the upper bound for any relief bounce
US jobless claims 13:30 UTC and the Fed speaker slate on 25 vs 50bp could extend or stall the move
Lagarde at 19:30 UTC is the high-impact EUR risk for this read
Lower highs and lower lows since Tuesday's CPI reversal; 1.1100 range floor broken.
Monday's rally from the 1.1137 weekly open peaked at 1.1251 in Tuesday's London session. The hot US CPI print then reversed it during NY hours, and the CPI selloff extended through Wednesday's NY session below 1.1100 to a 1.1066 week low in today's Asia session. Price sits below both EMA(20) and EMA(50), which are sloping lower, with RSI(14) oversold at 29.1. The Asia low printed on a higher RSI trough (24) than Wednesday's 1.1082 prior low (14), a bullish divergence, while the lower-highs sequence stays intact.
Support: 1.10661, 1.1050
Resistance: 1.10822, 1.1101, 1.11339
What it said to watch
An H1 close back above the 1.1082 prior low and the 1.1100/ema20 area would test the lower-highs line and the downtrend read
A break of the 1.1066 week low would negate the RSI divergence and expose the 1.1050 round number
The ema50 at 1.1134 lines up with the 38.2% retracement of the CPI selloff, the first structural ceiling if price rebounds
US jobless claims at 13:30 UTC, Fed speakers through the NY session and Lagarde at 19:30 UTC could materially shift this read; US PPI follows Friday
Lower highs and lower lows since Tuesday's week high; 1.1100 range floor broken.
The week opened at 1.1137, and London drove a climb to a 1.1251 week high on Tuesday. The hot US CPI print then flipped the pair, with Tuesday's NY session and Wednesday's London-to-NY push cutting through the 1.1100 range floor in a sequence of lower highs. Price sits below a falling ema20 (1.1104) and ema50, and Asia printed a fresh week low at 1.1066 with RSI(14) at 26.1. That RSI is oversold but well above Wednesday's 14 reading, a bullish divergence against the lower low.
Support: 1.10661, 1.1050, 1.1000
Resistance: 1.10822, 1.11035, 1.11374
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the wed low at 1.1082 and the ema20 near 1.1104 would put price back inside the broken 1.1100 range floor
Failure to hold the 1.1066 week low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.1050 round number, then 1.1000 psych
Lower-highs trendline from Wednesday's Asia high caps rallies; the 38.2% week fib retracement at ~1.1137 aligns with the week open
US jobless claims at 13:30 UTC and Fedspeak today, then Lagarde at 19:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Friday's US PPI is the next test of 50bp Fed pricing behind the USD leg
Lower highs and lower lows since Tuesday's CPI reversal; range base at 1.1100 broken.
From the 1.1137 weekly open, Monday's rally peaked at 1.1251 at Tuesday's London open. The hot US CPI beat then turned the pair into a post-CPI decline, and Wednesday's late-London break took price through 1.1100 to a 1.1082 Wed low. An Asia-session drop has now printed a fresh week low at 1.1067, and price sits below EMA(20) at 1.1107 and EMA(50) at 1.1139, which is near the weekly open. RSI(14) at 24 is oversold but holds above Wednesday's 14 trough on a lower price low, a bullish divergence, while ATR(14) has ticked up to 11.4 pips.
Support: 1.1067, 1.1050, 1.1000
Resistance: 1.1082, 1.1107, 1.1137
What it said to watch
H1 closes back above the 1.1082 Wed low and EMA(20) at 1.1107 would break the lower-highs line and the post-CPI decline sequence
Failure to hold the 1.1067 week low puts the 1.1050 half-figure and the 1.1000 psych level in play
Lagarde at 19:30 UTC tonight could materially shift this read
US jobless claims at 13:30 UTC and Fed speakers through NY hours could test the 1.1100 range base
A 38.2% retracement of the post-CPI decline sits at the 1.1137 weekly open; a move there would test the divergence
Lower highs since Tuesday's peak; tight box under the broken 1.1100 range floor.
The week reversed at Tuesday's London high of 1.1251. The hot US CPI print drove a 70-pip slide in NY, and Wednesday's London-NY selling broke the 1.1100 range floor to a 1.1082 week low, below both EMAs and the 1.1137 weekly open. Since then price has boxed 1.1082-1.1100, with only a 1-pip lower low in the Asia session. RSI(14) has recovered to 32.6 from 14, a mild bullish divergence, while ATR compresses to 9.8 pips. The lower-highs line and the ema20 at 1.1110 sit just above the former range floor, capping the box from overhead.
Support: 1.10819
Resistance: 1.1100, 1.11102, 1.11374
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 1.1100 range floor and ema20 (1.1110) breaks the lower-highs line and reclaims the 38.2% fib zone of Tuesday's drop
Acceptance below the 1.1082 week low voids the bullish divergence and resumes the downtrend
Weekly open at 1.1137 marks the first upper reference if the box resolves higher
Lagarde speaks Thu 19:30 UTC; US jobless claims at 13:30 UTC could break the current box
Lower highs since Tue peak; tight base after break below 1.1100.
EUR/USD rallied from the 1.1137 weekly open to 1.1251 into Tuesday's London session. The hot US CPI beat then accelerated a reversal that Wednesday's London and NY sessions extended through the 1.1100 range floor to a week low at 1.1082. Price sits below a falling EMA(20) at 1.1112 and EMA(50) at 1.1143, while ATR has compressed to ~10 pips in a tight 1.1082–1.1100 band. RSI(14) has lifted to 33 from 14 on a marginal retest of the week low, a bullish divergence after the oversold extreme.
Support: 1.1082, 1.1050
Resistance: 1.1100, 1.11117, 1.11374
What it said to watch
H1 closes back above the 1.1100 range floor and EMA(20) at 1.1112 would turn the break into a false break, opening the weekly open at 1.1137 and the 38.2% post-CPI fib near 1.1146
Failure to hold the 1.1082 week low confirms a lower low and exposes the 1.1050 round number
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC, the Fedspeak slate and Lagarde at 19:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs since Tuesday's 1.1251 peak; break below 1.1100 range floor now basing.
The week opened near 1.1137 and rallied to 1.1251 in Tuesday's London session. The hot US CPI print then drove the CPI leg lower in NY hours, and Wednesday's London-NY transition carried price through the 1.1100 range floor to a week low at 1.1082. Price sits below a falling ema20 (1.1113) and ema50 (1.1145). A marginal new low at 1.10819 late in NY came with RSI(14) at 22 versus 14 on the first test, and ATR is easing from 12.3 to 10.3 pips, so the selloff is losing pace rather than accelerating.
Support: 1.1082, 1.1000
Resistance: 1.1100, 1.11132, 1.11452
What it said to watch
H1 closes back above the 1.1100 range floor and ema20 at 1.1113 would mark the break as a failed one
A sustained move below the 1.1082 week low confirms a lower low, with the 1.1000 round number the next reference
The 38.2% retracement of the CPI leg near 1.1146 lines up with ema50 as the upper cap on any rebound
US jobless claims (13:30 UTC) and the Fed speaker slate Thursday could shift this read
Lagarde at 19:30 UTC Thursday is a high-impact risk for the EUR leg