Lower highs and lower lows since Tuesday, price below both falling EMAs.
EURUSD has sold off steadily from Tuesday's 1.1251 London high. The hot US CPI print in Tuesday's NY session triggered the first leg, and each later NY session extended it, leaving lower highs at 1.1102 Thursday and the 1.1073 friday high. Friday's post-PPI NY drop broke the 1.1045 prior low, and price now sits at the 1.1019 week low, below a falling EMA(20) at 1.1042 and EMA(50) at 1.1067. RSI(14) is oversold at 28.6 and ATR has eased to 10.9 pips into the close.
Support: 1.10192, 1.1000
Resistance: 1.10421, 1.1045, 1.10726
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 1.1045 prior low and the ema20 would end the lower-low sequence
Failure to hold the week low exposes the 1.1000 round number
A rebound would meet the friday high, then the lower highs line and the week drop fib 38.2% near 1.1108
Fed's Jefferson speaks in under an hour; Warsh on Mon 17:00 UTC could materially shift this read
EZ CPI and ZEW on Tue are scheduled EUR-side risk
22:24 UTC
Downtrend, extending to new week lows · RSI 29 · price 1.10225
Lower highs and lower lows since Tuesday; Friday range broken lower.
The Tuesday-to-Friday decline began at the 1.1251 London-session peak. The stronger-than-forecast US CPI print set off the dominant leg, and NY hours drove each later drop as Fed hike pricing kept the dollar bid. Friday's NY session broke the 1.1044–1.1073 range, cutting through Thursday's 1.1045 low to a week low at 1.1020. Price sits below a steepening EMA(20) at 1.1044 and the EMA(50) at 1.1069, with RSI(14) at 29.3 oversold. Lower highs at the 1.1102 Thursday high and the 1.1073 Friday high define the descending trendline.
Support: 1.1020, 1.1000
Resistance: 1.10443, 1.10726, 1.11024
What it said to watch
H1 close back above 1.1045 and the ema20 would turn Friday's range break into a false break
Failure to hold the 1.1020 week low exposes the 1.1000 round number
A break through the lower-highs trendline and the 1.1073 friday high ends the lower-high sequence since Tuesday
Fed's Jefferson at 00:00 UTC and Warsh on Monday at 17:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs each session since Tuesday; range break lower on Friday.
Price has printed lower highs every session since Tuesday's hot US CPI broke it from 1.1251. In Friday's NY session it cut through Thursday's 1.1045 low and the session range after a soft PPI failed to dent Fed hike pricing. It now trades below both EMAs, with EMA(20) at 1.1044 sitting on the broken low and RSI(14) at 29.3 oversold into the 1.1020 week low, while ATR eases to 11 pips as the late drift slows.
Support: 1.1020, 1.1000
Resistance: 1.10443, 1.10686, 1.11024
What it said to watch
H1 close back above 1.1044 (ema20 / broken low) would turn Friday's range break into a false break
Failure to hold the 1.1020 week low exposes the 1.1000 psych level
38.2–50% retrace of the friday leg sits at 1.1039–1.1045, overlapping ema20
A break of the lower highs trendline near 1.1060, then the 1.1069 ema50, would mark the first change in the week's sequence; Thursday's 1.1102 lower high is the next cap
Fed's Jefferson at 00:00 UTC and Warsh on Monday could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since Tuesday; Friday range broken lower.
The pair has stepped lower each day from Tuesday's 1.1251 London high, with the hot US CPI print and Fed 50bp repricing driving the dominant legs, nearly all of them during NY hours. Friday's 1.1044–1.1072 range, where rallies stalled under the ema20 and ema50, gave way after PPI into the NY session, setting a week low at 1.1021 below the 1.1044 broken low. RSI is oversold at 29.4 but holding near 29–31 rather than pushing lower, and ATR has eased to 11.7 pips from 13.1 at the break.
Support: 1.10214, 1.1000
Resistance: 1.1044, 1.10466, 1.10705
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 1.1044 broken low and the ema20 at 1.1047 would mark the Friday break as a false break
Lower-highs trendline from Thursday's 1.1102 high caps near 1.1060; a close above it alters the downtrend read
Loss of the 1.1021 week low puts the 1.1000 round number in play
Fed's Jefferson tonight (00:00 UTC) and Chair Warsh Monday 17:00 UTC could materially shift this read
A move back to the 23.6% week fib near 1.1076 would put price back above the ema50
Lower highs and lower lows since Tuesday's 1.1251 high; Friday range broken lower.
The week's decline from Tuesday's 1.1251 high has run through NY sessions, starting with the hot US CPI on Tuesday and extending after Friday's PPI, when price left the 1.1043–1.1073 range and printed a new week low at 1.1026. Price sits below a falling EMA(20) at 1.1049 and EMA(50) at 1.1072, and Friday's high capped at the ema50 under the lower-highs trendline from Thursday. RSI(14) at 31.3 is near but not below 30, and ATR(14) has eased to 12.1 pips after expanding on the break, as price holds just above the week low and 27 pips over the 1.1000 round number.
Support: 1.10256, 1.1000
Resistance: 1.1043, 1.10491, 1.10724
What it said to watch
Fed's Jefferson speaks in about 5h, and Warsh on Mon 16 Nov 17:00 UTC is the bigger risk to this read
H1 close back above the 1.1043 prior low and the ema20 at 1.1049 would mark a failed range break
A break above the lower-highs trendline and the ema50 near 1.1072 would challenge the downtrend structure
Failure to hold the 1.1026 week low puts the 1.1000 round number in play
A stall at the 23.6% retracement of the week decline (~1.1079) would leave the lower-high sequence intact
Lower highs and lower lows from Tuesday's 1.1251 peak; Friday range broken lower.
EUR/USD has printed lower highs all week from Tuesday's 1.1251 peak. Tuesday's hot US CPI print in the NY session set off the first leg lower, and each later leg also came in London or NY hours. Friday's 1.1044–1.1073 range broke lower in NY despite the soft PPI, setting a new week low at 1.1026 as ATR(14) expanded to 12.4 pips. Price sits below a falling EMA(20) at 1.1051 and EMA(50) at 1.1074, with RSI(14) at 31.4, just above oversold, and the 1.1000 round number is the next reference below the lower-highs trendline.
Support: 1.10256, 1.1000
Resistance: 1.1044, 1.10514, 1.10726
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 1.1044 prior low and the ema20 at 1.1051 would turn Friday's range break into a false break
Break of the lower-highs trendline near 1.1055 or a reclaim of the 1.1073 friday high would end the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 1.1026 week low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.1000 round number
Fed's Jefferson tonight and Warsh on Monday 17:00 UTC could materially shift this read via Fed-hike pricing
17:01 UTC
Downtrend, fresh lows into Friday NY · RSI 34 · price 1.10342
Lower highs and lower lows since Tuesday; Friday range broken lower.
EURUSD has carved lower highs every day since Tuesday's 1.1251 London high, with the hot US CPI print driving the largest leg. Fed 50bp repricing has kept the dollar bid since. Friday's 1.1044–1.1073 range gave way in the NY session to a 1.1026 session low, breaking the prior low and the digest's 19-month floor, with price below a falling EMA(20) at 1.1054 and EMA(50) at 1.1076. RSI(14) dipped to 29.4 on the break and is back at 33.6, setting a lower low with price rather than diverging, and ATR is expanding from 9.5 to 12.7 pips.
Support: 1.10256, 1.1000
Resistance: 1.1044, 1.10539, 1.10726
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 1.1044 prior low would mark the NY break as a false break
Pullbacks stalling at the ema20 (1.1054) keep the lower-highs sequence intact; a close above the 1.1073 friday high breaks it
Failure to hold the 1.1026 session low leaves the 1.1000 round number as the next reference
Fed's Daly now and Fed Chair Warsh on Monday 17:00 UTC could materially shift this read
38.2% retracement of the week drop sits near 1.1112, the first upper reference if a relief bounce develops
Lower highs and lower lows since Tuesday; Friday range broken lower.
The week's drop runs from Tuesday's 1.1251 London-open high, accelerating on the hotter US CPI print and extending through Wednesday and Thursday, with each bounce capped by a falling lower-high trendline and a declining EMA(20) (1.1056) and EMA(50) (1.1078). Friday's 1.1044–1.1072 range gave way during NY hours as soft PPI offered no relief and a run of Fed speakers kept the dollar bid, printing a new week low at 1.1026 below the 1.1045 prior low. RSI(14) at 29.4 is oversold and ATR has expanded from 9.5 to 13.1 pips across the last 10 bars, which marks range expansion on the break.
Support: 1.1026, 1.1000
Resistance: 1.1045, 1.1056, 1.1072
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 1.1045 prior low would mark the range break as a false break
Failure to hold the 1.1026 week low brings the 1.1000 psych level into play
Recovery above EMA(20) at 1.1056 and the Friday high at 1.1072 would challenge the lower-high trendline
Fed's Daly in ~1h and Warsh on Monday could materially shift this read
15:01 UTC
Downtrend, momentum fading at the lows · RSI 44 · price 1.10561
Lower highs and lower lows since Tuesday; Friday compressing in a 1.1043-1.1073 range.
The dominant leg came at Tuesday's NY open, when the hot US CPI print broke the pair off its 1.1251 high. Each later push lower, through Wednesday's NY session, Thursday's Asia session and Thursday's NY session, set a lower high, the latest at 1.1102 on Thursday. Friday has compressed between the 1.1043 week low and the 1.1073 Friday high, and the soft PPI spike to 1.1069 was rejected. Price sits below a falling EMA(20) at 1.1059 and EMA(50) at 1.1080. RSI(14) has climbed from 30.4 to 44.1 while price only marginally undercut the lows, a mild bullish divergence, and ATR is expanding back to 11.6 pips.
Support: 1.1043, 1.1000
Resistance: 1.1059, 1.1073, 1.1102
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.1043 week low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.1000 round number
H1 close back above the ema20 and the 1.1073 Friday high breaks the lower-highs trendline and turns the read toward a base
Reclaim of the 1.1102 lower high would put the 23.6% retracement of the week's drop (~1.1092) behind price
Fed's Bowman in ~49 min and Daly later today could materially shift this read
Fed Chair Warsh on Monday 17:00 UTC is the next high-impact risk to the downtrend read
Lower highs from Tuesday's 1.1251 peak; Friday basing in 1.1044–1.1073 band.
The week's dominant leg came in the NY session. Tuesday's hot US CPI broke the pair from its 1.1251 high, and Thursday's NY hours extended the slide to the 1.1044 week low as 50bp Fed hike bets lifted the dollar. Friday has been a tight band below a falling EMA(20) at 1.1059, capped by the friday high at 1.1073. The PPI spike to 1.1069 met rejection and closed back near 1.1050. RSI(14) at 37.5 holds above Thursday's sub-30 reading while price retested the week low, a mild momentum divergence within an intact lower-high sequence.
Support: 1.1044, 1.1000
Resistance: 1.10593, 1.10726, 1.11024
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.1044 week low resumes the downtrend toward the 1.1000 psych level
H1 close above the 1.1073 friday high and EMA(20) would break Friday's capped band; 1.1102 thu high is next on the lower-highs line
Fed's Bowman (15:50 UTC) and Daly (17:00 UTC) could materially shift this read on 50bp December hike talk
Lower highs and lower lows since Tuesday, tight base at week low.
The slide from Tuesday's 1.1251 high was driven in NY hours: hot US CPI broke the pair Tuesday, and Wednesday and Thursday's NY sessions extended the sequence of lower highs as Fed 50bp-hike repricing widened rate spreads. Friday has held a narrow 1.1044–1.1073 range below a falling EMA(20), with the friday high capped near the 50% retracement of the Thursday leg. Today's marginal new week low came with RSI(14) at 37.7 versus 25.7 at Thursday's low, a bullish divergence, while ATR compression to 10.5 pips shows momentum fading.
Support: 1.1044, 1.1000
Resistance: 1.10602, 1.10726, 1.11024
What it said to watch
US PPI in under 30 min could materially shift this read; a hot core print aligns with the digest's sub-1.10 scenario
H1 close below the 1.1044 week low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.1000 round number
H1 close above the friday high at 1.1073 breaks the lower-high trendline and the Thursday-leg fib 50%, opening the thu high at 1.1102
Repeated failure at the ema20 (1.1060) keeps the downtrend structure intact
Fed's Bowman and Daly later in the NY session may extend any PPI reaction
Lower highs since Tuesday; tight Friday range sitting on the week low.
EUR/USD has printed lower highs since Tuesday's 1.1251 London-open peak, with the heaviest legs coming during NY hours after the hot US CPI print and the hawkish Fed repricing. Friday's session has compressed between the 1.1046 week low and the 1.1073 friday high, below ema20 at 1.1061 and ema50 at 1.1083, and the week low held on a retest after the soft EZ employment data. RSI(14) sits at 39 versus 26 at Thursday's low, and ATR has eased to 10.5 pips, so downside momentum is fading into US PPI.
Support: 1.10454, 1.1000
Resistance: 1.10613, 1.10726, 1.10834
What it said to watch
US PPI at 13:30 UTC, followed by Bowman and Daly, could materially shift this read. A hot core print raises the risk of a break of the week low.
An H1 close below the 1.1045 week low confirms a lower-low and puts the 1.1000 round number in play.
A reclaim of ema20 (1.1061) and a close above the 1.1073 friday high would break the lower highs line.
On any rebound, ema50 at 1.1083 and the 23.6% retracement of the Tue–Thu decline fib near 1.1094 are the next caps.
Lower highs and lows since Tuesday; tight Friday consolidation above week low.
EUR/USD has printed lower highs and lower lows since Tuesday's 1.1251 week high. The hot US CPI at Tuesday's NY open triggered a near 100-pip drop, and Thursday's NY session extended the week's decline to a 1.1045 week low as Fed 50bp bets widened the rate gap. Friday has held a tight 1.1046-1.1073 consolidation capped by the lower-high line from Thursday's 1.1102 lower high, with price below ema20 (1.1062) and ema50 (1.1085) after mixed EZ GDP and jobs data gave no lift, while RSI(14) at 35.8 holds above Thursday's 25.7 oversold trough and ATR has compressed to 10.7 pips.
Support: 1.10454, 1.1000
Resistance: 1.10622, 1.10726, 1.11024
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.1045 week low extends the lower-low sequence and opens the 1.1000 round number
H1 close above the 1.1073 friday high and ema20 breaks the lower-high line; Thursday's 1.1102 lower high and the 38.2% retrace of the week's decline near 1.1124 sit above
A retest of the week low with RSI(14) holding above 25.7 would form a bullish RSI divergence
US October PPI at 13:30 UTC (core YoY f/c 5%), then Bowman and Daly, could materially shift this read
Lower highs since Tuesday; Friday range under ema20.
The week's dominant move started in NY on Tuesday, when the stronger US CPI print knocked the pair off its 1.1251 high. It then printed lower highs at 1.1170, 1.1102 and 1.1073, with each down-leg extending in the London/NY sessions, down to the 1.1045 week low on Thursday evening. Since then RSI(14) has recovered from 25.7 to the low 40s and ATR has compressed from 13.3 to about 10 pips. Friday's Asia and London session has held a tight 1.1047–1.1073 range, and the London-open spike to the fri high faded back below a flattening ema20.
Support: 1.10454, 1.1000
Resistance: 1.10635, 1.10726, 1.10861
What it said to watch
An H1 close above the 1.1073 fri high and the ema50 at 1.1086 would break the lower-highs sequence
Failure to hold the 1.1045 week low exposes the 1.1000 psych level
EZ Q3 GDP at 10:00 UTC and US PPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since Tuesday; tight Friday range just under EMA(20).
EUR/USD has printed lower highs since Tuesday's 1.1251 week high, and each leg lower came in NY hours as Fed 50bp talk widened the rate gap. The drops followed Tuesday's hot US CPI and Wednesday's slide, then Thursday's leg from the 1.1102 thu high to the 1.1045 week low. Friday has held a 1.1054–1.1073 consolidation: RSI(14) has recovered from a 25.7 oversold read to around 42 and ATR(14) has compressed to about 10 pips. The spike to the fri high around the regional CPI prints met rejection inside the 38.2–50% zone of the Thursday leg fib, leaving price just below a flattening EMA(20) at 1.1064 and a falling EMA(50) at 1.1087.
Support: 1.1054, 1.10454, 1.1000
Resistance: 1.10641, 1.10726, 1.11024
What it said to watch
Eurozone Q3 GDP and employment at 10:00 UTC could break the Friday range in either direction
US PPI at 13:30 UTC: a hot core print and an H1 close below the 1.1045 week low exposes psych 1.1000
An H1 close above the 1.1073 fri high and the lower highs trendline would challenge the lower-high sequence, with EMA(50) at 1.1087 then the 1.1102 thu high next
Losing the 1.1054 range floor puts the week low back in play
Repeated H1 closes back above ema20 at 1.1064 would mark the first shift in this week's pullback behaviour
Lower highs and lower lows; consolidation above the week low.
The slide from Tuesday's 1.1251 high began in the NY session on the hot US CPI print, extended each NY session, and Thursday's NY selloff from the 1.1102 lower high set the week low at 1.1045. Friday's Asia and early London bounce stalled at 1.1073, the friday high, near the 50% retrace of Thursday's drop, and price has closed back below the ema20 at 1.1065. RSI(14) has recovered from 25.7 to the low 40s, ATR(14) has compressed from 13.3 to 10.2 pips, and both EMAs are still sloping down.
Support: 1.10454, 1.1000
Resistance: 1.10646, 1.10726, 1.11024
What it said to watch
Euro-area GDP and employment at 10:00 UTC and US PPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read; Fed's Bowman follows at 15:50 UTC
H1 close above the friday high at 1.1073 would break the lower-highs sequence; the 1.1102 lower high is the next structural cap
Failure to hold the week low at 1.1045 extends the downtrend toward the 1.1000 round number
Repeated H1 closes back below the ema20 at 1.1065 keep the bounce within the downtrend structure
07:01 UTC
Downtrend, early bounce off week low · RSI 47 · price 1.10718
Lower highs and lower lows since Tuesday's high; Asian higher lows lifting price back above EMA(20).
EUR/USD has printed lower highs and lower lows from Tuesday's 1.1251 London-open high, with each leg lower in NY hours: the hot US CPI print Tuesday, then Wednesday and Thursday extensions to the 1.1045 week low as 50bp Fed chatter lifted the dollar. Friday's Asian session built higher lows and lifted price back above EMA(20) at 1.1065, with RSI(14) back to 47 from a 26 trough and ATR compressing to 9.8 pips. The bounce now sits under the 1.1075 break level, where Thursday's NY slide accelerated, with EMA(50) at 1.1090 above that.
Support: 1.10652, 1.10454, 1.1000
Resistance: 1.1075, 1.10896, 1.11024
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1075 break level and EMA(50) at 1.1090 would expose the 1.1102 thu high near the 23.6% fib of the weekly drop
Failure to hold EMA(20) at 1.1065 and the Asian higher lows returns focus to the 1.1045 week low and the 1.1000 round number
ECB's Schnabel at 07:10 UTC and Eurozone Q3 GDP at 10:00 UTC could shift the London-session read
US PPI at 13:30 UTC is the main NY-session risk; a hot core print reviving 50bp Fed pricing would put the week low back in play
Lower highs and lower lows since Tuesday; tight Asian range below EMA(20).
Tuesday's London-session high at 1.1251 reversed on the hot US CPI print (0.4% MoM vs 0.3% f/c). Each session since has printed a lower high, with the latest leg in Thursday's NY session setting the week low at 1.1045 on broad dollar strength. Friday's Asian range of 1.1047–1.1063 sits below a falling EMA(20) at 1.1065 and EMA(50) at 1.1091. RSI(14) has recovered to 39.7 from a 25.7 oversold dip and ATR has compressed from 13.3 to 9.5 pips, a pause within the 38-pip down-leg rather than a structural turn.
Support: 1.10454, 1.1000
Resistance: 1.1065, 1.10906, 1.11024
What it said to watch
H1 close above the ema20 at 1.1065 and the lower-high trendline would break the sequence of rejections at the falling average
A recovery through the 1.1102 lower high (Thursday's London peak) and the ema50 at 1.1091 invalidates the lower-high structure
Loss of the 1.1045 week low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.1000 round number
EZ Q3 GDP at 10:00 UTC and ECB speakers (Sleijpen, Elderson, Schnabel) this morning could break the Asian range
US October PPI at 13:30 UTC is the main event risk for this structure
Lower highs and lower lows since Tuesday; tight Asian range below EMA(20).
The week turned at Tuesday's 1.1251 high. The hot US CPI drove a NY-session CPI selloff that London and NY extended on Wednesday and Thursday, leaving a sequence of lower highs and a week low at 1.1045 late in Thursday's NY session. In the Asia session price is coiling in a 1.1047–1.1063 range just under the ema20 at 1.1066, which is flattening, and under the lower-highs line. RSI has recovered to 41.7 from 25.7 and ATR has compressed to 9.7 pips, with the ema50 at 1.1092 and Thursday's high at 1.1102 above.
Support: 1.10454, 1.1000
Resistance: 1.10657, 1.10919, 1.11024
What it said to watch
H1 close above the ema20 and the lower-highs line near 1.1066 would mark the first break of this week's descending structure
Reclaim of the ema50 at 1.1092 and Thursday's high (thu high 1.1102) would end the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 1.1045 week low confirms a fresh lower-low, with the 1.1000 round number next
Eurozone Q3 GDP at 10:00 UTC and US PPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read out of the Asian range
Lower highs and lower lows since Tuesday, Asia consolidation above week low.
EUR/USD has been in a downtrend since Tuesday's London high at 1.1251. The hotter US CPI print in NY hours drove the main CPI leg, and the Wednesday and Thursday NY sessions extended it to a week low at 1.1045. Asia has held a tight 1.1047–1.1063 consolidation just under EMA(20) at 1.1066, with RSI(14) back to 42 from 25.7 on Thursday and ATR(14) compressing to 9.9 pips, while EMA(50) at 1.1093 keeps sloping lower just beneath Thursday's high at 1.1102.
Support: 1.10454, 1.1000
Resistance: 1.10661, 1.10931, 1.11024
What it said to watch
H1 close above the EMA(20) at 1.1066 and Thursday's high at 1.1102 would break the lower-high trendline and the downtrend sequence
Failure to hold the 1.1045 week low exposes the 1.1000 round number
EMA(50) at 1.1093 is the first resistance any bounce from the Asia consolidation would meet
ECB Schnabel at 07:10 GMT and EZ Q3 GDP at 10:00 GMT, then US PPI at 13:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
A rebound into the 23.6–38.2% zone of the CPI leg (1.1094–1.1124) would mark a deeper retracement than any seen since Tuesday
Lower highs since Tuesday, tight Asian range under ema20.
Lower highs since Tuesday's 1.1251 peak. The largest legs of the Tue–Thu drop came in NY hours, starting with the hot US CPI and the hawkish Fed repricing that followed. Yesterday's NY session sold off from the thu high at 1.1102 to a week low at 1.1045. Asia has since held a tight 1.1047–1.1063 range below the ema20 at 1.10665, with the ema50 at 1.10943 still sloping lower. RSI(14) has recovered to 40.4 from a 25.7 oversold dip, and ATR has compressed to 10.2 pips.
Support: 1.10454, 1.1000
Resistance: 1.10665, 1.10943, 1.11024
What it said to watch
An H1 close above the ema20 at 1.10665 and the lower-highs trendline would be the first break in the sequence since Tuesday
Failure to hold the 1.1045 week low exposes the 1.1000 round number
A reclaim of the thu high at 1.1102 brings the 38.2% retracement of the Tue–Thu drop near 1.1124 into view
US PPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read; Schnabel at 07:10 UTC and EZ Q3 GDP at 10:00 UTC come first
Lower highs and lower lows since Tuesday's 1.1251 peak.
The week decline began in Tuesday's NY session, when the hot US CPI print (0.4% MoM) broke the Monday-Tuesday advance off the 1.1251 high, and every session since has printed lower highs. Thursday's London bounce stalled at a 1.1102 lower high before NY hours carried price to a 1.1045 week low. RSI(14) has recovered from 25.7 to 40.9 through the Asia session. Price is lifting toward the ema20 at 1.1067 but remains below both EMAs, which are still sloping lower; the ema50 at 1.1096 sits near the 23.6% retracement of the week decline.
Support: 1.10454, 1.1000
Resistance: 1.10672, 1.10957, 1.11024
What it said to watch
An H1 close above the ema20 at 1.1067, followed by the ema50 at 1.1096 and the 1.1102 lower high, would break the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 1.1045 week low extends the downtrend and exposes the 1.1000 psych handle
ECB Schnabel and EZ GDP (10:00 UTC) during the London session could test the bounce
US PPI at 13:30 UTC, with Fed's Bowman and Daly later, could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since Tuesday's peak, tight Asia base.
EURUSD has printed a lower high every session since Tuesday's 1.1251 London-open peak. The hot US CPI print broke the structure, and NY hours drove each later leg down, the latest to a 1.1045 week low on Thursday as DXY pushed to fresh highs. Price sits below a falling EMA(20) and EMA(50). RSI(14) has recovered to 33.6 from 25.7, and ATR has compressed to 10.5 pips while the Asia session holds a tight 1.1047–1.1057 range.
Support: 1.10454, 1.1000
Resistance: 1.10678, 1.10971, 1.11024
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the ema20 at 1.1068 would mark the first break of this week's pullback-capping pattern
A move through Thursday's 1.1102 lower high breaks the lower-highs sequence and tests the ema50 zone
Failure to hold the 1.1045 week low exposes the 1.1000 round number
EZ Q3 GDP at 10:00 UTC and US PPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since Tuesday's peak, tight base above week low.
EURUSD has dropped about 205 pips from Tuesday's 1.1251 high. The main leg came on the hot US CPI print, and Thursday's NY session extended it to a week low at 1.1045 as DXY made fresh highs on Fed 50bp talk. Each bounce has stalled lower: Thursday's London rally failed at a lower high near 1.1102, just above the ema50. Price now sits in a narrow late-session base below a falling ema20, with RSI(14) holding just above 30 and ATR easing from 13.3 to 10.8 pips.
Support: 1.10454, 1.1000
Resistance: 1.10694, 1.10989, 1.11024
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the ema20 at 1.1069 would mark the first break of the pullback-capping pattern
Reclaim of the 1.1102 lower high (ema50 confluence) breaks the lower-high sequence and the trendline
Failure to hold the 1.1045 week low exposes the 1.1000 psych level
EZ Q3 GDP at 10:00 UTC and US PPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read