Lower highs off 1.1160 post-NFP high, pressing the late-NY low at Friday close.
Asia and London sold off from 1.1235. The blowout NFP (165K vs 65K) then drove price through the London low at 1.1167 to a 1.1131 NFP low. The post-NFP bounce met rejection at 1.1160, near the 23.6% of the day's decline fib, and late NY has ground lower on lower highs toward the 1.1136 late-ny low. RSI(14) is near 36 and bar ranges are compressing into the Friday close.
Support: 1.11357, 1.11308
Resistance: 1.11468, 1.11598, 1.11672
What it said to watch
Break of the 1.1131 NFP low extends the lower-low sequence
M15 close above the 1.1147 lower high breaks the late-NY lower-high chain
Reclaim of the 1.1160 post-NFP high reopens the 1.1167 London low
Friday close in ~15 min; thin liquidity and Monday-open gap risk. US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC is the next major driver
20:31 UTC
Downtrend, grinding lower into the weekend close · RSI 36 · price 1.11377
Lower highs since post-NFP bounce, price just above NFP low.
Asia faded from 1.1235 and London extended lower. The NFP beat (165K vs 65K) at 13:30 UTC then drove EUR/USD to a 1.1131 NFP low. The post-NFP high at 1.1160 capped the bounce, and NY has printed lower highs since, drifting to a 1.1136 late NY low in thin post-London trade with RSI(14) in the mid-30s.
Support: 1.11357, 1.11308
Resistance: 1.11468, 1.11598
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1131 nfp low extends the lower-low sequence
Close above the 1.1147 lower high breaks the NY descending sequence; 1.1160 post-NFP high is the next cap
Weekend gap risk; Monday Fed speakers (Bowman, Goolsbee, Barkin) are the next scheduled catalyst
20:16 UTC
Downtrend, grinding lower into late NY · RSI 35 · price 1.11387
Lower highs since post-NFP bounce, pressing toward the NFP low.
The NFP beat (165K vs 65K) extended a session-long slide that broke the Asian range at London open and printed the 1.1131 NFP low in the first hour of NY. The bounce high at 1.1160 met rejection near the 61.8% of the NFP leg. Since then, lower highs have pushed price back toward the 1.1136 late low into the late NY session, with RSI(14) near 35 and ATR(14) around 6 pips.
Support: 1.11357, 1.11308
Resistance: 1.11491, 1.11598
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.1131 nfp low confirms a fresh lower-low in the downtrend
M15 close above the 1.1149 lower high breaks the lower-highs sequence
Recovery through the 1.1160 bounce high would negate the rejection at the NFP leg 61.8%
Thin liquidity into the Friday close and the Monday reopen may distort levels near 1.1136
20:01 UTC
Downtrend, grinding lower into weekly close · RSI 33 · price 1.11386
Lower highs since post-NFP bounce, late NY low being pressed.
The 165K vs 65K NFP beat extended the Asia-London slide, taking EUR/USD to the 1.1131 NFP low. The bounce was rejected at the 1.1160 post-NFP high, and a lower-high chain since 17:45 UTC has price pressing the late NY low at 1.1136 into the Friday close, with RSI(14) soft near 33 but not oversold.
Support: 1.11357, 1.11308
Resistance: 1.11468, 1.11598
What it said to watch
Close below the 1.1131 NFP low confirms a fresh lower-low in the downtrend
Close above the 1.1147 lower high breaks the late NY trendline and the lower-high read
Recovery through the 1.1160 post-NFP high invalidates the post-NFP rejection
Fed speakers Mon (Bowman, Goolsbee, Barkin) and US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC could reprice the post-NFP move
The selloff from the 1.1235 Asian high accelerated on the NFP beat (165K vs 65K) and printed a 1.1131 NFP low. The bounce stalled at the 1.1160 bounce high, just under the 50% retrace of the NFP leg. Late NY trade is now grinding lower in a tight band of lower highs, pressing the 1.1140 late low with RSI(14) near 39.
Support: 1.11404, 1.11308
Resistance: 1.11468, 1.11598, 1.1170
What it said to watch
Break of the 1.1140 late low exposes the 1.1131 NFP low
M15 close above the 1.1147 minor high and the lower highs trendline neutralises the late-NY drift
Reclaim of the 1.1160 bounce high reopens the 1.1170 london base (pre-NFP range floor)
Thin Friday close liquidity; Monday Fed speakers (Bowman, Goolsbee, Barkin) are the next scheduled risk
The NFP beat (165K vs 65K) knocked EURUSD out of its 1.1170 london range to an nfp low at 1.1131. The bounce stalled at 1.1160, near the 50% retrace of the London-to-NFP leg, and late NY is now grinding lower beneath a lower highs line at 1.1141 with RSI(14) near 35.
Support: 1.11308, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.11598, 1.1170
What it said to watch
Break of the 1.1131 nfp low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.1100 round number
A close above the lower highs line and the 1.1160 bounce high would neutralise the post-NFP downtrend
Reclaim of 1.1170 puts price back inside the pre-NFP london range
Thin late-Friday liquidity; Monday open gap risk with Fed speakers (Bowman, Goolsbee, Barkin) on the slate
Post-NFP range 1.1142–1.1160, lower highs pressing the floor late in NY.
EUR/USD bled lower through Asia and London. The NFP beat (165K vs 65K) then drove it to the 1.1131 NFP low in the first hour of NY. The bounce retraced ~69% of the NFP leg to a 1.1160 bounce high, and the lower high at 1.1157 now has late-NY price pressing the 1.1142 range floor, with the 1.1167 London low capping above.
Support: 1.11425, 1.11308
Resistance: 1.11571, 1.11598, 1.11672
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1142 range floor exposes the 1.1131 NFP low
Close above the 1.1157 lower high and the lower highs trendline undercuts the downtrend read; 1.1167 London low sits next
Thin late-Friday NY trade can distort the range edges into the weekly close
Fed speakers Mon and US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
19:01 UTC
Downtrend, compressing late NY · RSI 43 · price 1.1145
Lower highs since the post-NFP bounce, tight 1.1143–1.1157 range.
The NFP beat (165K vs 65K) broke the London low near 1.1170 and ran to the NFP low at 1.1131. The bounce stalled at 1.1160, roughly a 64% retracement of the NFP leg. Since then lower highs have pressed price into a 1.1143 range low after London close, with RSI(14) flat near 43.
Support: 1.1143, 1.1131
Resistance: 1.1157, 1.1160, 1.1170
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1143 range low exposes the 1.1131 NFP low
Close above the lower highs line near 1.1157 and the 1.1160 bounce high shifts the read to a deeper retracement toward the 1.1170 London low
Thin late-Friday NY liquidity can produce erratic spikes around range edges
US CPI Tue Nov 10 13:30 UTC is the next major catalyst for this structure
Lower highs since Asia; NFP flush to 1.1131, now ranging 1.1143–1.1160 late NY.
The strong US payrolls beat (165K vs 65K) knocked EURUSD through the London low at 1.1167 down to the nfp low at 1.1131. The rebound stalled at the 1.1160 bounce high near the 50% fib of the London-to-NFP drop. Late NY has compressed into a 1.1143–1.1160 box under lower highs, with the twin lows at 1.1143 holding so far.
Support: 1.1143, 1.1131
Resistance: 1.1160, 1.1167, 1.1182
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1143 twin lows exposes the 1.1131 nfp low
Close above the 1.1160 bounce high breaks the lower-highs line; the 1.1167 London low and 1.1182 Asian low sit above
Friday close is near, so thin late-NY liquidity can distort the 1.1143–1.1160 box
Fed speakers Mon (Bowman, Goolsbee, Barkin) and the US CPI on Tue are the next drivers for the post-NFP move
Lower highs from Asia; tight range 1.1143–1.1160 after NFP low.
EURUSD broke below the 1.1191–1.1235 Asian range at London open. The beat on US payrolls (165K vs 65K) then extended the drop to the 1.1131 nfp low, with lower highs from the 1.1192 london high to the 1.1160 bounce high. Late in NY, price is pressing the 1.1143 range floor, with the 1.1167 london low now overhead and RSI(14) near 41.
Support: 1.1143, 1.1131, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.1160, 1.1167, 1.1192
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1143 range floor reopens the 1.1131 nfp low, then 1.1100 round number
Recovery above the 1.1160 bounce high and the 1.1167 london low breaks the lower-highs sequence
Thin Friday liquidity after London close; ATR near 7 pips points to small moves into the weekly close
18:16 UTC
Downtrend, consolidating after the NFP leg · RSI 44 · price 1.11463
Post-NFP range 1.1143–1.1157 with lower highs, below the London base.
The 165K NFP beat knocked EUR/USD through the 1.1170 London base to a 1.1131 nfp low. The rebound was rejected at the 1.1160 rebound high, right at the 61.8% of the drop. Since then, NY hours have held a tight 1.1143–1.1157 range with lower highs, and RSI(14) sits neutral near 44.
Support: 1.1143, 1.1131
Resistance: 1.1157, 1.1160, 1.1170
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1143 range floor exposes the 1.1131 nfp low
Close above the 1.1157 range top and the lower-highs line reopens the 1.1160 rebound high and the 1.1170 london base
Thin late-Friday liquidity after London close; Fed speakers Mon and US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC are the next event risk
Lower highs from 1.1192; NFP flush to 1.1131, now ranging 1.1143–1.1157.
The 165K NFP beat pushed EUR/USD through the 1.1167 prior floor to a 1.1131 NFP low. That extended a slide that began near 1.1234 in Asia and printed a 1.1192 london high after the open. The rebound stalled at the 1.1158 rebound high, below the 50% retrace of that leg, and late NY session is now compressing between the 1.1143 range floor and 1.1157 below EMA20.
Support: 1.1143, 1.1131
Resistance: 1.1158, 1.1167, 1.1192
What it said to watch
Fed's Daly at 18:00 UTC could break the late-NY compression range
M15 close above the 1.1158 rebound high and 50% retrace puts the 1.1167 prior floor and the lower-high trendline in play
Failure to hold the 1.1143 range floor exposes a retest of the 1.1131 nfp low
Friday late-NY liquidity thins into the close, so range edges may see wicks without follow-through
Lower highs since London; rebound capped at 61.8% of NFP drop, now ranging late NY.
The NFP beat (165K vs 65K) broke the London range and drove EUR/USD to the nfp low at 1.1131. The rebound stalled at the rebound high of 1.1160, just under the 61.8% retrace and the lower highs line. Since London close, price has been consolidating between the pullback low at 1.1145 and 1.1155, with RSI(14) near 45.
Support: 1.11446, 1.11308
Resistance: 1.11598, 1.11672
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the rebound high at 1.1160 and the london low at 1.1167 would break the lower highs sequence
Failure to hold the pullback low at 1.1145 reopens the nfp low at 1.1131
Fed's Daly at 18:00 UTC could shift this read in thin late-NY trade
Lower high at 1.1160 after the NFP low; late-NY coil 1.1144–1.1155.
Asia and London ground lower from 1.1235 to a pre-NFP base near 1.1170. The 165K payrolls beat then knocked EUR/USD to a 1.1131 NFP low. The NY rebound stalled at a 1.1160 rebound high, just under the 61.8% retrace of the NFP drop. After London close, price is coiling between a 1.1144 higher low and a 1.1155 coil top, sitting on EMA20 with RSI(14) near 44.
Support: 1.1144, 1.1131
Resistance: 1.1155, 1.1160, 1.1170
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1144 higher low breaks the rising post-NFP lows and exposes the 1.1131 NFP low
Close above the 1.1155 coil top and the 1.1160 rebound high puts the 1.1170 pre-NFP base back in play
Fed's Bowman (17:15 UTC) and Daly (18:00 UTC) remarks on a December hike could extend the payroll-driven USD move into the Friday close
Higher low at 1.1144 under the 1.1160 bounce high.
The NFP beat (165K vs 65K) broke EUR/USD through the 1.1170 London base to a 1.1131 low. After London close, price is coiling between the 1.1144 higher low and the 1.1160 bounce high, sitting on EMA20 and the 38.2% of the 1.1192–1.1131 fib, with RSI(14) neutral near 51.
Support: 1.11444, 1.11308
Resistance: 1.11598, 1.11691
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1160 bounce high puts the 1.1170 London base and 50% fib (1.1161) in play
Failure to hold the 1.1144 higher low breaks rising support and reopens the 1.1131 NFP low
Fed's Bowman (17:15 UTC) and Daly (18:00 UTC) on a December hike could shift this read in the next hour
Lower highs all day; post-NFP low then higher low, compressing below rebound high.
Lower highs ran from Asia through London. The blowout NFP (165K vs 65K) then broke the 1.1169 range floor to a 1.1131 NFP low. The rebound stalled at the 1.1160 rebound high, just under the fib 50% of the London-high move, and price is holding a 1.1145 higher low after London close, sitting at EMA20 with RSI(14) at 46.
Support: 1.1145, 1.1131
Resistance: 1.1160, 1.1169
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1160 rebound high opens a retest of the 1.1169 range floor
Failure to hold the 1.1145 higher low re-exposes the 1.1131 NFP low
Fed's Bowman (17:15 UTC) and Daly (18:00 UTC) could shift this read into the Friday close
Lower highs from London; consolidating 1.1144–1.1160 after NFP flush.
EURUSD lost the 1.1167 London low before data, then the blowout NFP (165K vs 65K) flushed it to a 1.1131 NFP low. The bounce stalled at 1.1160, a bounce high right at the 61.8% retracement, and price is now holding the 1.1144 pullback low after London close.
Support: 1.11444, 1.11308
Resistance: 1.11598, 1.11672
What it said to watch
Close below the 1.1144 pullback low exposes a retest of the 1.1131 NFP low
Close back above the 1.1160 bounce high opens the 1.1167 London low (prior range floor)
Fed's Bowman (17:15 UTC) and Daly (18:00 UTC) could extend or unwind the NFP move
Lower highs/lower lows; NFP bounce capped near 61.8% retracement.
The NFP beat (165K vs 65K) knocked EUR/USD out of the 1.1169–1.1180 London range floor to a 1.1131 NFP low. The NY rebound met rejection at the 1.1160 rebound high, right at the 61.8% retracement, and price is back testing the 1.1145 swing low with RSI(14) near 41, below both EMAs.
Support: 1.11446, 1.11308
Resistance: 1.11598, 1.1169
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1145 swing low exposes the 1.1131 NFP low and extends the lower-low sequence
M15 close above the 1.1160 rebound high and back into the 1.1169 range floor negates the post-NFP lower high
Fed's Bowman (17:15 UTC) and Daly (18:00 UTC) on December hike odds could extend or unwind the NFP move
London broke below the Asian range, and the NFP beat (165K vs 65K) extended the slide to the 1.1131 NFP low. The bounce stalled at the 1.1160 bounce high, just under the 50% fib of the 1.1192–1.1131 leg, and price has slipped back to 1.1147 into the NY afternoon. Price sits below both EMAs with RSI(14) near 36, the London low at 1.1167 above, and the 1.1100 round number below.
Support: 1.11308, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.11598, 1.11672, 1.1192
What it said to watch
A close back above the 1.1160 bounce high reopens the 1.1167 london low and the 61.8% fib
Failure to hold the 1.1131 nfp low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.1100 round number
Reclaiming the 1.1192 london high would negate the intraday downtrend read
Fed's Bowman (17:15 UTC) and Daly (18:00 UTC) on December-hike odds could materially shift this read
15:31 UTC
Downtrend, NY rebound corrective · RSI 43 · price 1.1157
Lower highs since Asia; London range floor broken on NFP, bounce stalling below it.
Asia bled from 1.1234 into a 1.1167–1.1180 London range, and the 165K NFP beat at 13:30 UTC broke the range low and ran to the 1.1131 NFP low. The NY bounce has retraced about 60% to the 1.1160 bounce high, capped at the 61.8% fib just under the old range floor. Price sits on EMA20 with RSI(14) at 43, recovering from oversold.
Support: 1.1145, 1.1131
Resistance: 1.1160, 1.1167, 1.1180
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1167 range low reclaims the London range and puts the 1.1180 range high and lower-highs line back in view
Rejection at the 1.1160 bounce high / 61.8% fib keeps the post-NFP rebound corrective
Failure to hold the 1.1145 nfp pivot exposes a retest of the 1.1131 nfp low
Fed's Bowman (17:15 UTC) and Daly (18:00 UTC) could materially shift this read as liquidity thins after London close
Lower highs all session; V-bounce retesting broken pre-NFP low.
The 165K NFP beat drove EUR/USD through the 1.1169 London low to 1.1131 in the first hour of NY. Price has since retraced about 27 pips into the 1.1159 pre-NFP low, between the 50% and 61.8% levels of the NFP drop fib. It sits just under EMA20 and the lower-highs trendline near 1.1162, and RSI(14) has recovered to 47.
Support: 1.11405, 1.11308
Resistance: 1.11585, 1.11691, 1.11797
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1159 pre-NFP low and the lower-highs trendline puts the 1.1170 London low and the 1.1180 swing high back in play
Rejection at 1.1159 followed by a break of the 1.1140 higher low reopens the 1.1131 NFP low
Fed's Bowman (17:15 UTC) and Daly (18:00 UTC) could shift the post-NFP read
Lower highs since London; London range floor broken on NFP.
EURUSD has posted lower highs from 1.1235 through Asia and London. The 1.1170 London floor gave way after the 165K NFP beat, printing a low at 1.1131. The NY bounce has stalled at 1.1150, the 38.2% fib of the post-London drop, with RSI(14) recovering to about 35.
Support: 1.1143, 1.1131
Resistance: 1.1150, 1.1159, 1.1170
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.1159 (pre-NFP low) and the lower highs trendline would reclaim the NFP bar range
Failure at the 38.2% fib followed by a break of the 1.1143 NFP bar low exposes the 1.1131 NFP low
Michigan sentiment and inflation expectations at 15:00 UTC (in progress) could materially shift this read
Fed's Bowman (17:15 UTC) and Daly (18:00 UTC) are the next risk in NY hours
Reclaiming the 1.1170 London floor would neutralise the NFP range break
14:46 UTC
Downtrend, oversold after NFP leg · RSI 27 · price 1.11441
Lower highs and lows; London range broken lower, first NY bounce in play.
The hawkish NFP beat (165K vs 65K, hot wages) broke the 1.1170–1.1180 London range, cleared the 1.1167 London low and extended the slide to an nfp low at 1.1131. The first NY rebound stalled at the 1.1148 bounce high. RSI(14) near 27 shows a stretched move, and the pre-nfp low at 1.1159 sits near the 38.2–50% fib of the move from the London high.
Support: 1.11308
Resistance: 1.11483, 1.11585, 1.11672
What it said to watch
UoM sentiment and inflation expectations at 15:00 UTC could reset this read within the next bar
M15 close back above the 1.1148 bounce high puts the pre-nfp low at 1.1159 in focus
Reclaiming the 1.1167 london low (61.8% fib zone) would undercut the post-NFP downtrend read
Failure to hold the 1.1131 nfp low extends the lower-low sequence
Fed's Bowman (17:15 UTC) and Daly (18:00 UTC) could shift the NY afternoon tone
14:31 UTC
Downtrend, extended after NFP · RSI 22 · price 1.11319
Lower highs and lower lows all session; London range broken, fresh session low.
Steady slide from the 1.1235 Asian high. The 1.1167–1.1180 London range gave way just before NFP, and the 165K beat drove price through the pre-NFP low at 1.1159 to a session low at 1.1131 in the first hour of NY. RSI(14) is near 22, price sits under the lower-highs trendline from the 1.1192 London high, and the 1.1300 round number is just below.
Support: 1.1131, 1.1300
Resistance: 1.1145, 1.1159, 1.1167
What it said to watch
Reclaim of the 1.1145 nfp break area would signal the post-data leg is stalling
Recovery above the 1.1159 pre-NFP low and the 1.1167 London low would put price back inside the earlier range
Failure to hold the 1.1131 session low exposes the 1.1300 round number
UoM sentiment and inflation expectations at 15:00 UTC, then Fed's Bowman (17:15) and Daly (18:00), could extend or unwind the NFP move
M15 close above the lower-highs trendline breaks the session's lower-high sequence
London range broken lower, lower highs intact, fresh session lows.
The 165K NFP beat broke EUR/USD out of the 1.1167–1.1180 London range, and price is printing a fresh session low near 1.1135 early in the NY session. RSI(14) near 20 is stretched. The 1.1154 NFP high and 1.1167 London low now sit overhead, and the lower highs from the 1.1192 London high remain intact.
Support: 1.1135, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.1154, 1.1167, 1.1192
What it said to watch
UoM sentiment and inflation expectations at 15:00 UTC could extend or fade the NFP leg
Recovery above the 1.1154 nfp high eases the sell-off read; a reclaim of the 1.1167 london low puts price back inside the prior range
Continued trade below the 1.1135 session low keeps the 1.1100 round number in view
Fed's Bowman (17:15 UTC) and Daly (18:00 UTC) could shift the post-NFP read
13:31 UTC
Downtrend, extended into NFP · RSI 31 · price 1.11575
Lower highs from 1.1192; 1.1169–1.1180 range broken lower at NY open.
London took out the Asian low, capped at the 1.1192 london high, then held a 1.1169–1.1180 range until NY, when the range floor gave way. The 13:30 UTC NFP bar spiked to 1.1143 (the nfp spike low) before snapping back toward 1.1158, with RSI(14) near 31 and below the round number at 1.1150 only briefly.
Support: 1.1150, 1.11425
Resistance: 1.1167, 1.1180, 1.1192
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.1167 range floor (near the 50% fib) would mark the break as a false break
Failure to hold the 1.1143 nfp spike low confirms a fresh lower-low
Holds above the 1.1150 round number keep the post-NFP wick as rejection of the lows
A recovery through the 1.1180 range top breaks the lower-highs trendline
UoM Consumer Sentiment and inflation expectations at 15:00 UTC could shift the read
London opened by breaking the Asian low near 1.1191 and printed the London high at 1.1192 before rolling over. The 1.1169–1.1180 range (range low to range top) then gave way into 13:00 UTC, setting a session low at 1.1159 on haven USD demand and the EZ retail miss. RSI(14) at 38 is soft but not stretched heading into the release.
Support: 1.11585, 1.1150
Resistance: 1.1169, 1.1180, 1.1192
What it said to watch
US NFP at 13:30 GMT (f/c 65K): a soft print could materially shift this read
M15 close back above the 1.1169 range low turns the break into a false break
Close above the 1.1180 range top and the lower-highs trendline invalidates the LH/LL chain
Failure to hold the 1.1159 session low exposes the 1.1150 round number
13:01 UTC
Downtrend, compressed into NFP · RSI 39 · price 1.11664
Lower highs since London; 1.1169–1.1180 range floor broken at NY open.
EURUSD fell steadily from the 1.1234 Asia high through London. Risk-off USD demand and the EZ Retail Sales miss drove the move, which then stalled in a 1.1169–1.1180 range under a line of lower highs from the 1.1192 london high. The first hour of NY broke the range floor to a 1.1163 session low, with RSI(14) near 39 and ATR around 5 pips ahead of payrolls.
Support: 1.11632, 1.1150
Resistance: 1.1169, 1.1180, 1.1192
What it said to watch
US NFP at 13:30 UTC (~30 min, f/c 65K) could materially shift this read; a soft print is the scenario the digest flags for the largest reversal
Reclaim of the 1.1169 range floor would mark the NY-open break as a false break
Failure to hold the 1.1163 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.1150 round number
M15 close above the 1.1180 range top breaks the lower highs line; the 1.1192 london high sits just above
Lower high at 1.1192, 1.1169–1.1180 range above session low.
EUR/USD bled from the 1.1235 Asian-session high through London open to a 1.1167 session low, driven by risk-off USD demand and the Eurozone Retail Sales miss. The rebound was rejected at 1.1192, the 38.2% fib and old asian low, and price has since compressed in a 1.1169–1.1180 range under a falling trendline. It is now sitting on the range low ahead of NFP.
Support: 1.1169, 1.1167
Resistance: 1.1180, 1.1191
What it said to watch
US NFP at 13:30 GMT (f/c 65K) is likely to break the 1.1169–1.1180 range
M15 close below the 1.1167 session low extends the lower-low sequence
Close above the 1.1180 range top and falling trendline opens a retest of the 1.1191 asian low / 38.2% fib
London broke the Asian range low; lower high at 1.1192, tight range 1.1169–1.1180 since 09:30 GMT.
London opened with a break below the Asian range low near 1.1191, driven by USD safe-haven demand and the Eurozone Retail Sales miss, and printed the London low at 1.1167. The rebound stalled at 1.1192, a lower high near the 38.2% fib, and price has since held a roughly 11-pip band between the 1.1169 range low and the 1.1180 range top ahead of NFP.
Support: 1.1169, 1.1167
Resistance: 1.1180, 1.1192, 1.12345
What it said to watch
US NFP at 13:30 GMT (f/c 65K, prior 29K), about an hour out, could materially shift this read and break the compressed range
An M15 close below the 1.1167 London low extends the lower-low sequence
A close above the 1.1180 range top brings the 1.1192 lower high and the descending trendline into play
Reclaiming 1.1192 would expose the move back toward the 1.12345 Asian high
Asian range broken lower in London, now a tight base below the Asian low.
Safe-haven USD demand and the soft EZ retail print took London below the Asian low at 1.1192, printing a 1.1167 session low and a lower high back at 1.1192. Since mid-London, price has compressed in a 1.1169–1.1180 band under the lower-highs line, with RSI(14) neutral near 46 into NFP.
Support: 1.1169, 1.1167
Resistance: 1.1180, 1.1192, 1.1200
What it said to watch
US NFP at 13:30 GMT (~75 min) could materially shift this read; ATR near 5 pips understates release risk
M15 close above the 1.1180 range top tests the lower-highs line; reclaiming the 1.1192 Asian low negates the London breakdown
Failure to hold the 1.1169 range low and 1.1167 session low confirms a fresh lower low
1.1200 round number caps any rebound back toward the 50% fib of the Asian-high-to-session-low move
12:01 UTC
Downtrend, compressing into NFP · RSI 38 · price 1.11721
London lower low, then tight 1.1169–1.1180 range under EMA20.
London extended the Asia-session slide through the 1.1191 Asian low to a 1.1167 London low. Risk-off USD demand and the soft EZ Retail Sales miss drove the move. The bounce stalled near the 38.2% retrace at the broken asian low (1.1192), and price has since held a swing low at 1.1169 below a 1.1180 range top, with lower highs capping it into the London-NY transition.
Support: 1.11691, 1.11672
Resistance: 1.11797, 1.1192, 1.1200
What it said to watch
US NFP at 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K) lands within six bars and is likely to resolve the 1.1169–1.1180 compression
An M15 close below the 1.1169 swing low and the 1.1167 london low extends the lower-low sequence
A close above the 1.1180 range top breaks the lower highs line and brings the 1.1192 asian low back into play
Reclaiming the asian low and the 1.1200 round number would undo the London breakdown
Lower highs from the Asia high; tight range above the session low.
Asia sold off from 1.1234, and London open extended the slide to a 1.1167 session low as safe-haven USD demand and the EZ Retail Sales miss weighed. The bounce stalled at the 1.1192 swing high, the 38.2% fib. Since then price has held a tight 1.1170 range floor to 1.1180 range top, with twin lows near 1.1167–1.1169, RSI(14) near 44 and price flat around EMA20 ahead of NFP.
Support: 1.1170, 1.11672
Resistance: 1.1180, 1.1192, 1.1200
What it said to watch
US NFP at 13:30 GMT (f/c 65K, prev 29K) could materially shift this read; the digest flags a soft print as the larger-move scenario
An M15 close above the 1.1180 range top that extends through the 1.1192 swing high breaks the lower-high chain and brings the 1.1200 psych level into view
Failure to hold the 1.1170 range floor and the 1.1167 session low confirms a fresh lower low
Lower highs from 1.1192; tight 1.1169–1.1180 range.
Asia slid from 1.1234 and London open broke through the 1.1191 Asian low to a 1.1167 session low as the haven USD bid held on the equity rout. The London bounce stalled at 1.1192, the 38.2% retrace of the Asia-London drop, and price has since compressed in a 1.1169–1.1180 range under a line of lower highs, with RSI(14) near 42.
Support: 1.1167, 1.1150
Resistance: 1.1180, 1.1191, 1.1200
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 1.1180 range top breaks the lower-highs line and brings the 1.1191 Asian low back into view
Failure to hold the 1.1167 session low confirms a lower low and exposes the 1.1150 round number
US NFP at 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K, AHE 0.3%) could materially shift this read; a soft print puts 1.1200 psych in focus
Lower highs below broken Asian low; tight range above London low.
The 1.1235–1.1167 drop broke the 1.1191 Asian low into London open as the safe-haven USD bid from the equity rout extended, and soft eurozone retail sales did nothing to slow it. The 08:30 UTC bounce stalled exactly at the broken Asian low, leaving a lower high. Price has since compressed between the 1.1167 London low and a 1.1176 range top ahead of NFP, with RSI(14) neutral near 43.
Support: 1.1167
Resistance: 1.1176, 1.1191, 1.1200
What it said to watch
US NFP at 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K) and AHE could materially shift this read. ATR(14) near 6 pips understates the likely release move.
Failure to hold the 1.1167 London low confirms a lower-low and extends the downtrend sequence.
An M15 close above the 1.1176 range top, then above the 1.1191 Asian low, would break the lower-highs trendline and put 1.1200 psych back in play.
Lower highs from the Asian high; tight 1.1169–1.1180 base after London break.
Mid-London, EURUSD extended the Asian slide from the 1.1234 asian high, breaking the 1.1191 asian low to a 1.1167 london low as a risk-off USD bid overrode the German IP beat. The bounce stalled at 1.1192, and the lower highs line is intact. Price is now compressed under a 1.1180 range top with RSI(14) neutral near 45 and ATR(14) about 6 pips.
Support: 1.11672, 1.1132
Resistance: 1.1180, 1.1192, 1.1200
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1192 asian low breaks the lower highs line and opens the 1.1200 round number
Failure to hold the 1.1167 london low resumes the downtrend, with 1.1132 the next macro level cited in the USD digest
US NFP at 13:30 GMT (~2.5h, f/c 65K) could break the 1.1169–1.1180 range top band in either direction
10:46 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 44 · price 1.11752
Asian range broken lower, lower highs, tight base 1.1169–1.1180.
EUR/USD broke the 1.1191 Asian low into London open on a safe-haven USD bid and printed a 1.1167 London low. The bounce was rejected at 1.1192, matching the Asian low and the 38.2% fib of the Asia-London leg. Price is now compressing between a 1.1169 higher low and the 1.1180 range top, under the lower highs line, ahead of US payrolls.
Support: 1.1169, 1.1167
Resistance: 1.1180, 1.1191, 1.1200
What it said to watch
US NFP at 13:30 GMT (f/c 65K, prev 29K) could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 1.1167 london low extends the lower-low sequence
Close above the 1.1180 range top and the lower highs line opens a retest of the 1.1191 asian low and the 1.1200 round number
Lower highs from 1.1235; London range 1.1167–1.1192.
EURUSD slid from the 1.1235 Asia high, broke the 1.1191 Asian low and printed a 1.1167 london low at 07:30 UTC as risk-off kept USD bid. The London bounce met rejection at 1.1192, the old asian low and the 38.2% fib, and price is now compressing near 1.1170 with RSI(14) ~41 ahead of NFP.
Support: 1.1167
Resistance: 1.1192, 1.1200
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1167 london low extends the lower-low sequence
M15 close above the 1.1192 asian low and 38.2% fib breaks the descending highs line
1.1200 round number sits as the next cap above the asian low
US NFP at 13:30 GMT (f/c 65K) could materially shift this read and resolve the 1.1167–1.1192 range
Lower highs from the Asian high; London broke the Asian range low and is basing above 1.1167.
The Asian slide from 1.1234 extended into London, broke the Asian low near 1.1192 and set a session low at 1.1167. The 08:30 UTC bounce was rejected at the asian low, which lines up with the 38.2% of the downleg fib, and has since left a lower high at 1.1180. The risk-off USD bid into NFP has pinned price near 1.1170, with RSI(14) at 39 and no oversold reading.
Support: 1.1167, 1.1150
Resistance: 1.1180, 1.1192, 1.1200
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1167 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward 1.1150 psych
M15 close above 1.1180 lower high, then 1.1192 asian low, breaks the descending trendline and negates the downtrend read
1.1200 round number is the upper boundary of today's breakdown structure
US NFP at 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K) could materially shift this read; Michigan sentiment follows at 15:00 UTC
Below the Asian range; second test of the London low after a lower high.
London open broke below the Asian range low near 1.1191 and printed a 1.1167 London low as the haven USD bid from the equity rout extended. The bounce stalled at 1.1192, a lower high, and price is back retesting the London low with RSI(14) near 35. Price is below both EMAs and the lower-highs trendline from the 1.12345 Asian high is still capping.
Support: 1.11672, 1.1150
Resistance: 1.1192, 1.1200, 1.12345
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1167 London low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.1150 round number
Recovery above the 1.1192 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline and puts 1.1200 round number back in play
Eurozone Retail Sales at 10:00 UTC and US NFP at 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K) could materially shift this read
Retracement toward the 1.12345 Asian high would test the fib of the overnight drop
09:46 UTC
Downtrend, momentum flattening near the lows · RSI 38 · price 1.11759
Lower highs from 1.1235; London low 1.1167 retested, holding by 3 pips.
The Asia-session fade from 1.1235 broke the Asian range low near 1.1191 into London and printed a 1.1167 london low, as the haven USD bid on the equity rout drove the move. The bounce stalled at the 38.2% fib at 1.1192 under the lower-highs trendline, and price has since slipped back to retest 1.1170, with RSI(14) near 38.
Support: 1.11672
Resistance: 1.1192, 1.1200
What it said to watch
Close below the 1.1167 london low extends the lower-low sequence
Recovery above the 38.2% fib and lower-highs trendline near 1.1192, then the 1.1200 round number, would break the intraday downtrend read
Eurozone Retail Sales at 10:00 UTC and the US jobs report at 13:30 GMT could materially shift this read
09:31 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since Asia · RSI 33 · price 1.11722
Lower highs and lower lows since the 1.1235 Asia high; price retesting the 1.1167 London low.
EUR/USD has bled from the 1.1235 Asia high on the haven USD bid. The early-London bounce off the 1.1167 london low stalled at the former asian low near 1.1191, roughly a 38.2% fib retracement under the descending trendline, and price is now back on the low mid-London with RSI(14) near 33.
Support: 1.11672
Resistance: 1.1191, 1.1200
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1167 london low confirms a fresh lower low
Recovery above the 1.1191 asian low and the descending trendline breaks the lower-high sequence; 1.1200 round number sits just above
Lane/Williams 09:30 UTC and Eurozone Retail Sales 10:00 UTC are near-term catalysts
US jobs report 13:30 UTC (NFP f/c 65K) could materially shift this read
LH/LL chain from Asian high; London bounce rejected, price back near session low.
Lower highs have held since the 1.1235 Asian high. London broke below the Asian range and printed a 1.1167 london low, then the bounce stalled at 1.1192. That lower high sits at the 38.2% retrace, just under the overnight shelf at the 1.1200 round number. Price is back near 1.1175 with RSI(14) ~36, and haven USD demand from the tech sell-off is keeping EUR heavy into payrolls.
Support: 1.11672
Resistance: 1.1192, 1.1200
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1167 london low extends the lower-low sequence
Recovery above the 1.1192 lower high and the 1.1200 round number breaks the lower-high chain
Lane and Williams at 09:30 UTC and EZ Retail Sales at 10:00 UTC could jolt the session range
US jobs report at 13:30 UTC (NFP f/c 65K) could materially shift this read
Lower-high chain since 00:00 UTC; London bounce from 1.1167 rejected at 38.2% fib.
EUR/USD bled lower through the Asia session on haven USD demand. It lost the 1.1200 round number and the 1.1203 prior low, then printed a session low at 1.1167 into London open. The bounce stalled at 1.1192, the bounce high at the 38.2% fib of the selloff, and price is fading back below both EMAs, with RSI(14) near 35.
Support: 1.1167
Resistance: 1.1192, 1.1200, 1.1203
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1192 bounce high and the lower highs trendline breaks the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 1.1167 session low confirms a fresh lower low
Lane / Williams at 09:30 UTC and EZ Retail Sales at 10:00 UTC could jolt the London range
US jobs report at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Reclaiming the 1.1200 round number and 1.1203 prior low turns the selloff into a range
Asian range broken lower, lower highs intact, retest of broken low capping.
Early London broke the Asian low at 1.1192 and ran to a London low of 1.1167 as risk-off USD demand persisted. The rebound stalled at the broken Asian low, which lines up with the 38.2% fib of the Asian high-to-London low drop. That leaves a lower highs line in place, with price below both EMAs and a higher low at 1.1176.
Support: 1.11765, 1.11672
Resistance: 1.1192, 1.1200, 1.12345
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1200 round number breaks the lower highs sequence
Loss of the 1.1176 higher low exposes the 1.1167 London low; a break there resumes the downtrend
Lane and Williams speak at 09:30 UTC; US jobs report at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Asian high at 1.1235 is the upper bound if the Asian low is reclaimed
Asian range broken lower; lower highs intact below 1.1191.
The Asian range (1.1191–1.12345) gave way ahead of London. The slide ran to a session low at 1.11672 as the risk-off USD bid swamped the German IP beat. The London open bounce stalled at the 1.11888 bounce high, just under the former Asian low, with RSI(14) near 41 and price pinned just below EMA20.
Support: 1.11707, 1.11672
Resistance: 1.11888, 1.11908, 1.1200
What it said to watch
Close back above the 1.11908 asian low reclaims the range; 1.1200 psych is the next cap
Failure to hold the 1.11707 higher low and a break of 1.11672 session low confirms a fresh lower low
ECB Lane / Fed Williams at 09:30 UTC and EZ Retail Sales 10:00 UTC could jolt the session range
US jobs report at 13:30 UTC (NFP f/c 65K) could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows from 1.1235; price retesting the broken asian low from below.
Early London extended the Asia slide through the 1.1191 asian low to a 1.1167 session low. The German IP beat drew no reaction against a firmer USD into NFP. A 21-pip rebound has price back at that broken low, just under the 38.2% fib retrace of the 1.1235–1.1167 slide, with RSI(14) recovering to the mid-40s.
Support: 1.1176, 1.11672
Resistance: 1.11908, 1.1200
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.1191 asian low reopens the 1.1200 round number; rejection there keeps the lower-low sequence intact
Failure to hold the 1.1176 pivot puts the 1.1167 session low back in play
ECB Lane and Fed Williams at 09:30 UTC, EZ Retail Sales at 10:00 UTC and US payrolls at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Asian range broken lower, shallow bounce off session low.
Selling into the London open broke the Asian low at 1.11908 and pushed to a 1.11672 session low. The German IP beat drew no reaction as risk-off USD demand dominated. Lower highs since the 1.12345 Asian high keep the descending trendline intact, and the bounce has stalled at the 1.11809 bounce high with RSI(14) near 29.
Support: 1.11672, 1.1150
Resistance: 1.11809, 1.11908, 1.1200
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.11908 asian low (38.2% fib zone) would mark the break as failing
Failure to hold the 1.11672 session low exposes the 1.1150 round number
Reclaim of the 1.1200 psych level would break the descending trendline and the lower-high sequence
ECB Lane / Fed Williams at 09:30 UTC and Eurozone Retail Sales at 10:00 UTC could jolt the range
US NFP at 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K) could materially shift this read
07:46 UTC
Downtrend, extending at London open · RSI 27 · price 1.11715
Lower highs from Asian high; Asian range broken lower.
London open broke the Asian low at 1.1191 and pressed to a 1.1167 london low as the USD rebound extended, keeping price under the 1.1200 round number. Lower highs since the 1.1235 asian high stay intact; RSI(14) near 27 is stretched but not extreme.
Support: 1.11672, 1.1150
Resistance: 1.11908, 1.1200, 1.12345
What it said to watch
Recovery back above the 1.1191 asian low would turn the break into a false break
Failure to hold the 1.1167 london low exposes 1.1150 psych
A close above the lower-highs trendline and the 1.1200 round number breaks the sequence from the 1.1235 asian high
ECB's Lane and Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC, then US NFP at 13:30 GMT, could materially shift this read
07:31 UTC
Downtrend, fresh lows into London open · RSI 26 · price 1.11756
Lower highs and lower lows from the 1.1235 Asian high; Asian range broken lower.
Steady lower highs from the 1.1235 Asian high under a descending trendline. Price lost the 1.1200 round number and the 1.1191 prior low late in Asia and is printing a fresh session low at 1.1176 into London open, with RSI(14) near 26. The USD rebound on firm labour data and Fed-hike pricing is driving the leg lower ahead of NFP.
Support: 1.1176, 1.1150
Resistance: 1.1191, 1.1200, 1.1235
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.1191 prior low and the descending trendline would undercut the breakdown
Reclaim of the 1.1200 round number shifts the read back toward a range
Failure to hold the 1.1176 session low leaves little structure before the 1.1150 psych level
Williams and Lane at 09:30 UTC, then US NFP at 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K), could materially shift this read
Lower-high/lower-low chain, Asian low broken at London open.
EUR/USD slid through Asia below Thursday's 1.1203 prior low as the USD rebound on hawkish Fed remarks extended. The London open broke the Asian low at 1.1191 and printed a 1.1178 session low, with RSI(14) near 29 and the lower-highs line from the 1.1235 Asian high still capping.
Support: 1.11777
Resistance: 1.11908, 1.12001, 1.12028
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.1191 asian low would mark the London break as a false break
Break of the 1.1178 session low extends the lower-low chain
1.1200 round number lines up with the 38.2% fib and the 1.1203 prior low, an area to watch for rejection or break
ECB Lane and Fed Williams at 09:30 UTC, then US NFP at 13:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
07:01 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through Asia · RSI 31 · price 1.1184
LH/LL chain from Asian high; early-session floor broken pre-London.
Lower highs from the 1.1234 Asian high capped every bounce along the descending trendline. Price broke the 1.1191–1.1200 consolidation in the hour before London open, printing a session low at 1.1181 with RSI(14) near 31. The slide extends Thursday's USD recovery on the claims beat and Fed-hike repricing; ATR(14) is about 5 pips.
Support: 1.1181
Resistance: 1.1191, 1.1200, 1.1234
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 1.1191 asian low, where the descending trendline also sits, would mark the breakdown as a false break
Failure to hold the 1.1181 session low extends the lower-low chain into London
A reclaim of the 1.1200 round number neutralises the Asian downtrend read; the 1.1234 asian high is the swing top of the move
German IP (07:00 UTC), ECB's Lane and Fed's Williams (09:30 UTC) and EZ Retail Sales (10:00 UTC) are in the London morning
US NFP at 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K) could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows through Asia, 1.1191–1.1200 shelf broken.
The USD rebound carried EUR/USD lower through Asia, from the 1.1235 asia high through the 1.12 handle and Thursday's 1.1203 NY low, with lower highs capped by the falling trendline. A two-hour shelf at 1.1191–1.1200 just broke, the range floor gave way and price is sitting at the 1.1186 session low into London open with RSI(14) near 28.
Support: 1.11859
Resistance: 1.11908, 1.1200, 1.12345
What it said to watch
Quick reclaim of the 1.1191 range floor would mark the break as a false break
Close back above the 1.12 handle and the lower-highs trendline invalidates the Asia downtrend read
Failure to hold the 1.1186 session low extends the lower-low chain below the Asia leg
German IP at 07:00 UTC, and ECB's Lane and Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC, could shift the read during London
US NFP at 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K) is the main catalyst and could materially reset this structure
06:31 UTC
Downtrend, pausing above the Asian low · RSI 34 · price 1.11932
Lower highs from the Asian high; tight 1.1191–1.1200 box ahead of London.
Asia faded the 1.1235 Asian high and broke Thursday's 1.1203 prior low as USD firmed into payrolls. A bounce was rejected at the 1.1200 round number, and price is boxed just above the 1.1191 Asian low ninety minutes before London open. RSI(14) is near 34, soft but not oversold.
Support: 1.1191
Resistance: 1.1200, 1.1203, 1.1235
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 1.1200 round number and 1.1203 prior low negates the Asian breakdown
Failure to hold 1.1191 asian low extends the lower-low sequence
38.2% of the Asian leg near 1.1208 is the first retracement test if 1.1203 is reclaimed
German IP at 07:00 UTC and Lane/Williams at 09:30 UTC could break the pre-London box
US NFP at 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K) could materially shift this read
Lower highs since NY session; tight base under 1.1200 pre-London.
The Asia session gave back the post-rollover pop from the 1.1234 asia high to a 1.1191 asia low as USD firmed. The lower-high sequence from the NY session is intact. Price has compressed in a 9-pip band just under the 1.1200 round number into London open, with RSI(14) near 37 and no retrace yet to the 38.2% fib.
Support: 1.11908
Resistance: 1.12005, 1.12124, 1.12345
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1200 round number and the 1.1212 swing high (38.2% fib) would break the lower-high chain
Failure to hold the 1.1191 asia low confirms a fresh lower-low
Asia high at 1.1234 and the lower-high trendline cap any rebound
Lane/Williams 09:30 UTC and EZ Retail Sales 10:00 UTC precede US NFP at 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K), the main catalyst for this read
06:01 UTC
Downtrend, pausing near lows · RSI 35 · price 1.11955
Lower highs from 1.1234 Asian high; tight base under 1.1200 after break of prior NY low.
The Asia session extended Thursday's USD rebound, breaking the 1.1203 prior NY low and the 1.1200 psych handle to a 1.1191 session low, with lower highs off the 1.1234 Asian high forming a descending line. Ahead of London open, price is coiling in a ~10-pip band just under 1.1200, RSI(14) near 35, with no reaction to hawkish ECB commentary.
Support: 1.1191
Resistance: 1.1200, 1.1203, 1.1234
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.1203 prior NY low turns the 1.1200 break into a false break
Failure to hold the 1.1191 session low extends the lower-low sequence
A break of the descending line opens the 38.2% retrace of the Asia leg near 1.1208; the 1.1234 Asian high caps above
German IP 07:00 UTC, ECB's Lane and Fed's Williams 09:30 UTC, EZ Retail Sales 10:00 UTC
US NFP at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
05:46 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 36 · price 1.11966
Lower highs through Asia, base forming under 1.1200.
The Asia session extended Thursday's dollar-led slide from the 1.1235 Asian high to a 1.1191 session low. That broke both the 1.1200 handle and the 1.1203 prior low set in Thursday's NY session. Late-Asia bars are compressing just under 1.1200 with RSI(14) near 36, and price sits below both EMAs ahead of London open.
Support: 1.11908
Resistance: 1.12028, 1.12345
What it said to watch
A recovery above the 1.1203 prior low puts price back inside Thursday's range. The 38.2% retrace of the Asia decline sits at 1.1208.
A close below the 1.1191 session low extends the lower-high, lower-low sequence.
The 1.1235 Asian high caps the session range.
German IP at 07:00 UTC, Lane and Williams at 09:30 UTC, and NFP at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read.
Lower-high chain through Asia, Thursday low broken.
Late Asia session: the Asia leg from the 1.1235 high carved steady lower highs and broke the 1.1203 thu low and the 1.1200 round number as the USD caught a mild bid on firmer yields. Price is basing a few pips above the 1.1191 session low, with RSI(14) near 34 and no sign yet of a higher low.
Support: 1.11908
Resistance: 1.1200, 1.12028, 1.12124
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 1.1200 round number and 1.1203 thu low would mark the break as a false break
Failure to hold 1.1191 session low extends the lower-low chain into London open
A recovery through the 1.1212 lower high (50% of the Asia leg) breaks the intraday lower-high sequence
German IP 07:00 UTC, Lane/Williams 09:30 UTC and US NFP 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
05:17 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through Asia · RSI 39 · price 1.11971
Lower-high/lower-low chain off the 1.12345 Asia high; Thu NY low and 1.1200 handle broken.
Late Asia session: EURUSD sold steadily from the 1.12345 Asia high to a 1.11908 Asia low, slicing through the 1.12028 Thu NY low and the 1.1200 handle as the dollar's mild Asian bid persisted. The Asia leg has retraced only about 14% so far, with RSI(14) near 39 and price below both EMAs ahead of the London open.
Support: 1.11908
Resistance: 1.12028, 1.12075, 1.12345
What it said to watch
Close back above the 1.12028 thu ny low and 1.1200 would mark the break as a false break
Failure to hold the 1.11908 asia low extends the lower-low sequence
Recovery through fib 38.2 at 1.12075 would challenge the lower-high chain; the 1.12345 asia high caps the leg
German IP at 07:00 UTC and Lane/Williams at 09:30 UTC; US NFP at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows; Thursday NY low broken in Asia.
Asia session sold off steadily from the 1.1235 Asian high. It broke through the Thursday NY low at 1.1203 and the 1.1200 handle and printed a session low at 1.1191, as the USD caught a mild bid on firmer yields. The early bounce is stalling just under 1.1200 into the London open, with RSI(14) near 30 and ATR around 4.6 pips.
Support: 1.11908
Resistance: 1.12028, 1.12345
What it said to watch
A close back above the thu ny low at 1.1203 would turn the break into a false break; the 38.2% of the Asian leg fib sits near 1.1208
Failure to hold the 1.1191 session low extends the lower-low chain
German IP at 07:00 UTC and Lane/Williams at 09:30 UTC could reshape the London read
US NFP at 13:30 UTC is the main event risk; the asian high at 1.1235 is the upper marker if the dollar bid fades
04:46 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through Asia · RSI 35 · price 1.11968
Lower highs from 1.12345 Asian high; broke below Thursday's low and 1.1200.
The Asia session extended Thursday's dollar-led slide from the 1.12345 Asian high, breaking the 1.12028 Thursday NY low and the 1.1200 round number to a 1.11908 session low. RSI(14) is near 35 after a small bounce off that low, and ATR is about 4.7 pips into a heavy European and US data day.
Support: 1.11908
Resistance: 1.1200, 1.12028, 1.12345
What it said to watch
M15 closes back above the 1.1200 round number and the 1.12028 thu ny low would turn the break into a false break
Failure to hold the 1.11908 session low extends the lower-low sequence
Fib 38.2% of the asian high-to-low leg sits near 1.1208, just above the thu ny low; a rejection there keeps the lower-high chain intact
German IP at 07:00 UTC and Lane/Williams at 09:30 UTC are the first catalysts; US NFP at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
The Asia leg lower from the 1.1235 Asia high has carried Thursday's USD rebound on strong claims through the 1.1200 round number and the 1.1203 Thu low, printing a session low at 1.1191. Lower highs at 1.1244 and 1.1235 define the slide. RSI(14) near 19 is stretched ahead of London open.
Support: 1.11908
Resistance: 1.1200, 1.12028, 1.12345
What it said to watch
Hold below the 1.1191 session low extends the lower-low chain into London open
M15 close back above the 1.1200 round number and the 1.1203 Thu low would mark the break as a false break
Break above the lower-highs line and the 1.1235 Asia high invalidates the intraday downtrend read
German Industrial Production at 07:00 UTC and ECB's Lane at 09:30 UTC could jolt the pre-NFP tape
US NFP at 13:30 UTC is the dominant catalyst for this structure
Lower highs/lower lows through Asia; Thu low and 1.1200 broken.
Asia faded steadily from the 1.1235 Asian high under a line of lower highs. It cut through the 1.1203 Thu low and the 1.1200 round number to a 1.1192 session low as the USD extends its claims-driven rebound. RSI(14) is near 27 and ATR(14) about 5 pips, with the London open and data still ahead.
Support: 1.11918
Resistance: 1.12028, 1.12213, 1.12345
What it said to watch
Reclaim of the 1.1203 Thu low and 1.1200 round number would turn the break into a false break
A close above the 1.1221 lower high and the lower-highs trendline breaks the Asian decline sequence
Failure to hold the 1.1192 session low extends the lower-low chain
German IP at 07:00 UTC and Lane/Williams at 09:30 UTC land around the London open
US NFP at 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K) is the dominant catalyst and could materially shift this read; a miss carries the larger move risk
Asia sell-off broke below Thursday's NY low and the 1.1200 handle.
The Asia session sold steadily from the 1.1235 Asia high, breaking Thursday's 1.1203 NY prior low and the 1.1200 round number to a 1.1197 session low. Lower highs are intact under the descending trendline. RSI(14) sits near 30 as the USD rebound on firm jobless claims extends ahead of London open.
Support: 1.11967
Resistance: 1.12028, 1.12201, 1.12345
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 1.1203 prior low and the 1.1200 round number would mark a false break
A rebound capped at the 1.1220 61.8% fib of the Asia sell-off keeps the lower-high sequence intact
A break above the 1.1235 Asia high and the descending trendline voids the downtrend read
Failure to hold the 1.1197 session low extends the lower-low chain into London open
German IP at 07:00 UTC, ECB's Lane at 09:30 UTC and US NFP at 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K) could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows; Thursday's NY low and 1.1200 broken in late Asia.
Late Asia session has slipped through Thursday's ny low at 1.1203 and the 1.1200 handle to a session low at 1.1197. The USD recovery that followed the firm jobless claims print is still the backdrop. Lower highs run from 1.1243 to the 1.1234 asian high, the 1.1212 shelf high capped the last bounce, and RSI(14) at 28 is stretched but not extreme.
Support: 1.11971
Resistance: 1.12028, 1.12124, 1.12345
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.1203 ny low would mark the 1.1200 break as a false break
Bounce failing below the 1.1212 shelf high keeps the lower-highs sequence intact
Recovery through the 1.1234 asian high invalidates the intraday downtrend read
German IP at 07:00 UTC, then Lane and Williams at 09:30 UTC, around London open
US NFP at 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K) could materially shift this read
03:31 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through Asia · RSI 29 · price 1.12025
Lower-high sequence from the 1.1235 Asia high, price pressing Thursday's NY low.
The Asia session has sold off steadily from the 1.1235 Asia high on a clean chain of lower highs, extending the USD recovery that followed Thursday's jobless claims beat. Price now sits on the 1.1203 Thu low from NY hours, with the 1.1200 psych handle just below. RSI(14) is near 29 and ATR is about 5 pips, typical of thin late-Asia trade.
Support: 1.12028, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.12213, 1.12345
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1200 psych handle confirms a lower-low beneath the Thu low
Close above the 1.1221 swing high breaks the Asia lower-highs sequence
German IP at 07:00 UTC and the London open are the first tests of the Asian range
US jobs report at 13:30 UTC (NFP f/c 65K) is the dominant risk and could materially shift this read
03:16 UTC
Downtrend, Asia extending lower · RSI 29 · price 1.12067
Lower highs from 1.12435; Asia range 1.12345–1.12053, trading at the lows.
Asia faded from its 1.12345 high into a session low at 1.12053. That extends the lower-high chain from Thursday's 1.12435 NY peak as the USD holds its claims-driven recovery. Price sits just above Thursday's NY low at 1.12028 and the 1.1200 round number, with RSI(14) near 29 and ATR about 5 pips ahead of London.
Support: 1.12028, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.12213, 1.12345
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.12028 ny low and the 1.1200 round number confirms a fresh lower-low
Reclaim of the 1.12213 lower high, near the 61.8% of the Asia drop fib, breaks the lower-high sequence
Recovery through the 1.12345 asia high invalidates the intraday downtrend read
German IP at 07:00 UTC near London open, Lane and Williams at 09:30 UTC, and US jobs report at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows through Asia, just above the ny low.
Mid-Asia session, EUR/USD has reversed the early pop to the asian high at 1.1235. The asia drop has printed lower highs and lower lows into 1.1205, carrying over Thursday's USD rebound on the jobless-claims beat. Price sits just above Thursday's ny low at 1.1203 and the 1.1200 round number, with RSI(14) near 29 and ATR(14) about 5 pips.
Support: 1.12028, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.12213, 1.12345
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the ny low at 1.1203 and the 1.1200 round number extends the lower-low sequence
An M15 close above the 1.1221 lower high breaks the asia downtrend line
A recovery through the asian high at 1.1235 invalidates the intraday downtrend read
ECB's Lane and Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC, then US NFP at 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K), could materially shift this read
02:46 UTC
Downtrend, Asia extending lower · RSI 29 · price 1.12077
Lower highs through Asia, testing session low.
Mid-Asia session has unwound the early pop to the 1.1235 asian high and is pressing the 1.1208 asian low with a chain of lower highs, capped by a descending line from Thursday's 1.1244 ny high. Next below is Thursday's ny low at 1.1203 and the 1.1200 round number, the floor the digest flags after the USD rebound on jobless claims; RSI(14) near 29, ATR(14) ~5.4 pips.
Support: 1.12075, 1.12028, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.12124, 1.12345, 1.12435
What it said to watch
Close below the 1.1203 ny low and 1.1200 round number confirms a lower-low and breaks yesterday's range
Recovery above the 1.1212 lower high stalls the Asia sequence; acceptance back above the descending line near 1.1230 neutralises the downtrend read
ECB's Lane and Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC, then US NFP at 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K), could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 1.1244; pressing Asian low above 1.1200.
Asia session faded from the 1.1235 Asian high and is now testing the 1.1208 Asian low, a few pips above Thursday's 1.1203 NY low and the 1.1200 round number, as USD rebuilds into NFP. Highs keep stepping down from the 1.1244 NY high along a falling trendline, and the 1.1215 prior shelf has turned into resistance.
Support: 1.12079, 1.12028, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.1215, 1.12345, 1.12435
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.1200 round number breaks the NY low and extends the lower-low sequence
Reclaim of 1.1215 prior shelf and the falling trendline weakens the downtrend read; 1.1235 Asian high above
ECB Lane and Fed Williams at 09:30 UTC, then US NFP at 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K), could materially shift this read
London open with German Industrial Production at 07:00 UTC may reset the Asian range
Lower highs from 1.1268; price back at the NY low floor.
Early in the Asia session, a rejection at the 1.1234 asian high has sent price back to 1.1208, retesting the 1.1203 ny low and the rollover low. Each rebound has capped lower, 1.1268 then 1.1244 ny high then 1.1234, as USD rebuilds into NFP, while RSI(14) near 39 is soft but not stretched.
Support: 1.12028, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.12141, 1.12345, 1.12435
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1203 ny low confirms a lower-low and puts the 1.1200 round number in play
Reclaim of 1.1214, the broken low from 01:00 UTC, would stall the slide back inside the overnight range
Close above the lower-highs trendline near the 1.1234 asian high breaks the lower-high sequence
ECB Lane and Fed Williams at 09:30 UTC, Eurozone Retail Sales at 10:00, then US NFP at 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K) could materially shift this read
02:01 UTC
Drifting lower, lower highs since NY · RSI 41 · price 1.12092
Lower highs pressing back toward the NY low.
Rejection at the 1.1234 Asian high left a second lower high under the 1.1244 NY high, and early Asia has slid to the session low near 1.1209. That is a retest of the 1.1203 NY low set after the claims beat, with price below EMA20/50, RSI(14) near 41 and the 1.1200 round number just beneath.
Support: 1.12028, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.12345, 1.12435
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1203 NY low and the 1.1200 round number confirms a lower-low
Recovery above the 1.1234 Asian high breaks the lower-highs line
ECB Lane and Fed Williams at 09:30 UTC, then US NFP at 13:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Lower highs inside 1.1203–1.1244 range; Asia pinned near its session low.
Asia session was rejected at the 1.1235 asia high and slid back to the asia low near 1.1213. That extends the lower-high sequence from Thursday's 1.1244 swing high, which formed as the USD recovered on the jobless-claims beat. Price sits between the 61.8% and 78.6% retracement of the day low–swing high leg, below both EMAs, with RSI(14) neutral near 47.
Support: 1.12129, 1.12028, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.12345, 1.12435
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1213 asia low exposes the 1.1203 day low and the 1.1200 psych handle
Recovery above the 1.1235 asia high breaks the lower-high trendline and turns the read back to range
German Industrial Production 07:00 UTC around London open, then Lane/Williams at 09:30 UTC, could set the session range
US NFP 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K) could materially shift this read and the 1.1200 handle
Lower highs at 1.1244 and 1.1235 over a 1.1203 base. Price is at the Asian low..
The Asia session was rejected at the 1.1235 Asian high and has slipped back to the 1.1213 Asian low, about 65% into the NY bounce fib off Thursday's 1.1203 low. A lower-high trendline from the 1.1244 NY high is capping, with the USD recovery on firm claims still holding.
Support: 1.1213, 1.1203, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.1235, 1.1244
What it said to watch
A break of the 1.1213 asian low exposes the 1.1203 thu low and the 1.1200 round number
An M15 close above the lower-high trendline and the 1.1235 asian high reopens the 1.1244 ny high
ECB Lane and Fed Williams at 09:30 UTC, then US NFP at 13:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 1.1268; early Asia back at the session low.
Thursday's USD recovery on firm jobless claims took EURUSD from the 1.1268 Asian high to a 1.1203 NY low. The NY bounce stalled at the 1.1244 NY high, and early Friday Asia saw rejection at the 1.1235 Asian high under the lower-highs line, with price now back on the 1.1214 Asian low. EMA20 and EMA50 are both overhead and RSI(14) is drifting near 44.
Support: 1.12138, 1.12028, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.12345, 1.12435
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1203 NY low and the 1.1200 round number confirms a lower-low
M15 close above the 1.1235 Asian high breaks the lower-highs line
ECB Lane and Fed Williams at 09:30 UTC, then EZ Retail Sales at 10:00 UTC, can reset the Asian range
US NFP at 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K) could materially shift this read
Lower highs at 1.1244 and 1.1235 above a 1.1203 day low; Asian session in progress.
Thursday's London selloff from the 1.1268 prior high bottomed at the 1.1203 day low in NY as USD recovered on firm claims and hawkish Fed talk. The NY bounce stalled at the 1.1244 NY high, and early Asia was rejected at the 1.1235 Asian high for another lower high. Price now sits at the 61.8% fib of the NY bounce near 1.1218, below EMA20/50, with RSI(14) near 48.
Support: 1.12138, 1.12028, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.12345, 1.12435, 1.12679
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.1214 asian low exposes the 1.1203 day low and the 1.1200 round number
M15 close above the lower-highs line near the 1.1235 asian high breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 1.1244 NY high in play
German IP at 07:00 UTC and Lane/Williams at 09:30 UTC land in London hours; US NFP at 13:30 UTC is the larger risk to this read
Lower highs off 1.1268; post-drop range 1.1214–1.1244.
London selling took EURUSD from the 1.1268 prior high to a 1.1203 Thursday low in early NY as the USD recovered on firm jobless claims. The bounce stalled at the 1.1244 NY high, right at the 61.8% of the Thursday drop fib. Early Asia is rotating mid-range between the 1.1214 Asian low and the 1.1235 Asian high, with the lower-highs trendline capping from above and EMA20/EMA50 flat around price.
Support: 1.12138, 1.12028, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.12345, 1.12435, 1.12679
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1214 Asian low reopens the 1.1203 Thursday low and the 1.1200 round number
Break of the lower-highs trendline and the 1.1235 Asian high puts the 1.1244 NY high / 61.8% back in play
Fed's Williams and ECB's Lane at 09:30 UTC, then EZ Retail Sales at 10:00, can set the London range
US NFP at 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K) is the main risk to this range read
00:32 UTC
Intraday downtrend, early Asia bounce stalling · RSI 56 · price 1.1226
Lower highs since Thursday London open; small Asian range inside the NY range.
Thursday's London open broke down from the 1.1258–1.1268 Asian range. The dollar rebound on lower claims and hawkish Fedspeak then carried the slide to a 1.1203 ny low. The NY bounce stalled at the 1.1244 ny high (61.8% fib), and early Asia's push faded at the 1.1235 asia high (50% fib). Price sits at 1.1226 between EMA20 and EMA50, inside a 1.1214–1.1235 Asian range, with RSI(14) near 56.
Support: 1.1214, 1.1203, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.1235, 1.1244, 1.1268
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.1244 ny high breaks the lower-high sequence and opens the 1.1268 prior high
Failure to hold the 1.1214 asia low exposes the 1.1203 ny low and 1.1200 psych; a break there confirms a lower low
German IP 07:00 UTC and ECB Lane / Fed Williams at 09:30 UTC could break the Asian range
US NFP at 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K) is the dominant catalyst for the 1.1200 handle
00:16 UTC
Intraday downtrend since London open, early-Asia bounce · RSI 61 · price 1.12294
Lower highs from 1.1268; higher low at 1.1208 above the 1.1203 NY low.
London broke down from the 1.1268 Asia high as firm US claims and hawkish Fedspeak lifted the dollar. NY then built a 1.1203–1.1244 range capped by lower highs. Early in the new Asia session, price has bounced from the thin 1.1208 rollover low to the 61.8% retrace of that leg, and the 1.1235 session high is capping for now.
Support: 1.12234, 1.12077, 1.12028
Resistance: 1.12345, 1.12435, 1.12679
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1235 session high and the 1.1244 ny high breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 1.1268 asia high back in view
Loss of the 1.1223 swing low and the asia rising support exposes the 1.1208 rollover low and the 1.1203 ny low
German IP 07:00 UTC, then ECB Lane and Fed Williams at 09:30 UTC could reshape the Asian range ahead of NFP at 13:30 UTC
00:01 UTC
Down from 1.1268, now ranging · RSI 55 · price 1.12258
Lower highs below 1.1268; range 1.1203–1.1244 since NY.
Thursday's Asian high at 1.1268 was sold through London. Lower claims and hawkish Fed talk lifted USD into a 1.1203 session low early in NY. The NY rebound met rejection at the 1.1244 NY high, the 61.8% fib, and early Asia now sits mid-range near 1.1226 after a bounce off the 1.1215 late-NY low to a 1.1231 Asia-open high.
Support: 1.12151, 1.12028
Resistance: 1.12306, 1.12435, 1.12679
What it said to watch
Close above the 1.1231 Asia-open high and the 1.1244 NY high breaks the lower-highs line toward the 1.1268 Asian high
Failure to hold the 1.1215 late-NY low exposes the 1.1203 session low and the 1.1200 handle
German IP 07:00 UTC, ECB Lane and Fed Williams 09:30 UTC, then US NFP 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read