EUR/USD has spent the back half of the week consolidating between 1.1557 and the 1.1589 week high after Thursday's rally off the 1.1500 floor, helped by cooler US core CPI capping the Dollar. Price is hugging EMA(20) with RSI(14) neutral near 50, while the 1.15-1.16 box that has held all week stays intact. Volatility has compressed into the Friday close.
Support: 1.15571, 1.1550, 1.15026
Resistance: 1.15895, 1.1600
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.1589 week high opens the path toward the 1.16 range top
Loss of 1.1557 swing low reopens the 1.1500 range floor
FOMC Wed Jun 17 is the dominant catalyst that could break this range
20:01 UTC
Range, momentum flat · RSI 49 · price 1.15702
Boxed in this week's 1.15-1.16 range, consolidating below week high.
EUR/USD remains boxed in the 1.15-1.16 range that has held all week. After the sharp recovery off the 1.1500 area lows into the NY session, price stalled at 1.1590 — the prior range floor turned resistance — and has drifted back to mid-range around 1.1570 on flat RSI. Pullbacks are stalling just under EMA(20) while price holds above EMA(50).
Support: 1.1563, 1.1550, 1.15026
Resistance: 1.1585, 1.15895
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.15895 opens the upper end of the week's range
Failure to hold 1.15630 exposes 1.1550 and the lower box
FOMC Wed Jun 17 18:00 UTC is the dominant catalyst and could reset this range read
EUR/USD carved a week low near 1.1503 mid-week then rebounded sharply into 1.1590 as cooler US core CPI capped the dollar. Since the NY session yesterday price has consolidated in a tight band above EMA(20), with twin pushes to 1.1589 forming a double top and RSI(14) hovering neutral near 54. The 1.1590 range top has capped two attempts this week.
Support: 1.1560, 1.15026
Resistance: 1.15895
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.1590 invalidates the range-top read and opens room higher
Failure to hold 1.1560 exposes the 1.1500 area
FOMC Jun 17 and Lagarde Mon 07:30 UTC could materially shift this read
EUR/USD swept Wednesday's 1.1503 low and reversed hard back through 1.1580, with the pair now consolidating just under the 1.1590 weekly high into the NY session. Price holds above EMA20 with RSI(14) cycling mid-50s, confirming the upper-half tilt of the 1.1500-1.1590 range. The two-way 1.15-1.16 read from the post-ECB hike backdrop remains intact.
Support: 1.1565, 1.1515, 1.1503
Resistance: 1.1589, 1.1576
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.1590 invalidates the range top and opens scope higher
Failure to hold 1.1565 reopens the range lows toward 1.1515
Lagarde speech Mon 07:30 UTC and FOMC Wed could materially shift this read
18:02 UTC
Range, mild upward drift near top · RSI 54 · price 1.15741
Range-bound 1.1510–1.1590, holding upper half.
EUR/USD recovered from Thursday's 1.1503 dip — driven by softer US core PPI and a heavy USD — spiking to the 1.1589 weekly high before settling into a tight range above EMA(20) and EMA(50). The 1.1585–1.1590 zone has capped two attempts since, while demand has held the 1.1563 swing low. RSI(14) is cycling around the mid-50s, consistent with the balanced range read into next week's FOMC.
Support: 1.1563, 1.15087
Resistance: 1.15895, 1.1600
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.1590 opens the path toward the 1.1600 round number
Failure to hold 1.1563 swing low exposes the lower range toward 1.1510
FOMC Wed 17 Jun (dot plot) is the dominant catalyst and could break this range either way
EUR/USD recovered sharply off Thursday's 1.1503 dip into the NY session, reclaiming the 1.1580s on softer US core PPI and risk-on Iran headlines. Price has since coiled below the 1.1589 double top, with RSI(14) easing back toward neutral as the pair holds above EMA(20). The week remains pinned inside the 1.15-1.16 range flagged by the macro backdrop.
Support: 1.1557, 1.1530, 1.15026
Resistance: 1.1589, 1.1600
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.1589 double top opens the 1.1600 psych level
Failure to hold the 1.1557 swing low reopens the lower end of the 1.15-1.16 range
FOMC Wed 17 Jun is the dominant catalyst and could materially shift this read
17:01 UTC
Range-bound, upper half · RSI 55 · price 1.15741
Ranging within weekly 1.15-1.16 band.
EURUSD is holding the upper half of this week's 1.15-1.16 range after a sharp Thursday flush to 1.15026 was bought back aggressively, with the recovery aided by cooler US core PPI and US-Iran de-escalation optimism. Price sits above EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI cycling mid-range; the 1.1590 weekly high has capped two pushes this week. Demand has stepped in around 1.1557 on recent pullbacks.
Support: 1.1557, 1.1530, 1.1500
Resistance: 1.1589, 1.1600
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.1590 weekly high opens the path to 1.1600
Failure to hold 1.1557 reopens the 1.1530 swing low and range floor at 1.1500
Lagarde speech Mon 07:30 UTC and next week's FOMC dots could shift this read
17:01 UTC
Range-bound, upper half · RSI 55 · price 1.15741
Ranging 1.15-1.16, holding above EMAs.
EUR/USD has spent the week pinned in the 1.15-1.16 band, recovering off Thursday's 1.1503 dip after the cooler US core CPI and soft PPI prints trimmed the dollar. Price now sits in the upper half, holding above EMA(20) since the recovery with RSI(14) cycling near 55. The 1.1590 week high has capped attempts and remains the range ceiling.
Support: 1.15573, 1.1530, 1.1500
Resistance: 1.15895, 1.1600
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.1600 invalidates the range read and opens the upper band
Failure to hold 1.15573 reopens the 1.1530-1.1500 range floor
Lagarde speech Mon 07:30 UTC could shift this read; FOMC dots next week the larger risk
16:01 UTC
Range, recovered toward top · RSI 55 · price 1.15727
Consolidation below weekly high.
EURUSD snapped back from the 1.1500 range floor on a sharp bullish reversal mid-week and is now consolidating just under the 1.1589 weekly high, which has capped two attempts. The pair stays pinned in the well-worn 1.15-1.16 band post-ECB, holding above EMA20 with RSI in the mid-50s. Price is sitting near range mid-to-top after the recovery, with no clean break of the upper cap yet.
Support: 1.1568, 1.1557, 1.1500
Resistance: 1.1589, 1.1600
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.1589 weekly high opens the path to the 1.1600 range cap
Failure to hold 1.1557 swing low / EMA20 reopens the 1.1500 range floor
Lagarde speech Mon 07:30 UTC and FOMC Wed are the near-term catalysts that could shift this range read
16:01 UTC
Range, recovered toward top · RSI 54 · price 1.15727
Range-bound within weekly 1.1500-1.1600, higher lows since the dip.
EUR/USD swept the 1.1503 area mid-week then rallied hard through the NY session back toward the 1.1590 weekly high, which has since capped the advance. Price is now consolidating just above EMA20 with RSI(14) cycling around the mid-50s, holding the upper half of the well-worn 1.1500-1.1600 range. The post-ECB two-way tone keeps the pair pinned to its range edges.
Support: 1.1560, 1.1552, 1.1503
Resistance: 1.1590, 1.1600
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.1590 opens a path toward the 1.1600 range cap
Failure to hold 1.1560 risks a slide back toward the 1.1503 weekly low
Lagarde speech Mon 07:30 UTC and FOMC Wed could materially shift this read
Price snapped back hard off Thursday's 1.1503 week low, with the NY session driving a clean impulse to the 1.1589 weekly high before stalling. Since then EUR/USD has consolidated in the 1.1560–1.1589 band, with pullbacks holding the EMA20 near 1.1572 and RSI(14) cycling around 54. The week's broader 1.15–1.16 range still caps, in line with the post-ECB stalemate digest.
Support: 1.1560, 1.1572, 1.1503
Resistance: 1.1589, 1.1600
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.1589 week high opens the path to the 1.1600 psych pivot
Failure to hold 1.1560 session low reopens the lower 1.15 handle
Lagarde speech Mon 07:30 GMT could materially shift this read
15:01 UTC
Range, mild upward drift · RSI 56 · price 1.1574
Ranging 1.1500-1.1590, higher lows late-week.
EUR/USD has held a 1.1500-1.1590 band all week, with the 1.1590 weekly high capping two attempts and Thursday's sweep to 1.1503 finding demand. Price sits just above EMA20 and EMA50 after a recovery through the NY session, RSI(14) mid-range near 56. A slightly hawkish ECB hike and softer US dollar have kept the pair pinned in-range rather than trending.
Support: 1.1560, 1.1503, 1.1500
Resistance: 1.1590, 1.1585
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.1590 opens the path toward the 1.1600 pivot
Failure to hold 1.1560 reopens the 1.1500 range floor
Lagarde speech Monday could materially shift this read
14:01 UTC
Range, mild upward drift · RSI 53 · price 1.15716
Ranging below 1.1590 cap, higher lows since Tuesday's dip.
EUR/USD recovered from Tuesday's 1.1507 flush in a sharp NY-session bullish bar, then stalled twice at the 1.1589 weekly cap with USD firm after the hot US PPI print. Price now consolidates around EMA(20) (~1.1571), holding the 1.1560 pivot with RSI(14) cycling mid-range. The week's structure is a contained range below 1.1590, supply capping the upside while the 1.1560 area absorbs pullbacks.
Support: 1.1560, 1.1550, 1.1507
Resistance: 1.1589, 1.1600
What it said to watch
US Michigan sentiment at 14:00 UTC could shift this read
H1 close above 1.1590 opens the path to the 1.1600 psych level
Failure to hold 1.1560 exposes 1.1550 and the 1.1507 swing low
14:01 UTC
Rangebound, near range top · RSI 54 · price 1.15716
This-week range, holding above EMA20.
EUR/USD spent the week carving a 1.1503–1.1590 range, with the sharp dip to 1.1503 on the hot US PPI print fully reversed in the NY session as the dollar faded. Price now sits in the upper half near 1.1572, above EMA20, with RSI(14) holding mid-50s and no clear momentum. The 1.1589–1.1600 weekly high cap has rejected two attempts this week.
Support: 1.1557, 1.15026, 1.1500
Resistance: 1.15895, 1.1600
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.1600 opens the path beyond the week high cap
Loss of 1.1557 swing low reopens the 1.1503 week low
Michigan sentiment / inflation expectations (14:00 UTC) could shift this read
EUR/USD rebounded sharply off Thursday's 1.1507 low — helped by soft US core PPI and US-Iran headlines — and pushed to a 1.1590 week high before stalling. Price has since drifted back under the H1 EMA20 around 1.1571 and is pinning the 1.1556 pivot, with RSI(14) cycling mid-range. The 1.1590 cap has rejected attempts twice through the NY sessions, keeping action range-bound.
Support: 1.1557, 1.15087
Resistance: 1.15709, 1.15895
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.15895 reopens the path higher; repeated rejection keeps the range capped
Loss of 1.15570 exposes downside back toward the 1.15087 week low
ECB Nagel 14:30 UTC and US Michigan sentiment 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
13:01 UTC
Range, capped sub-1.1590 · RSI 48 · price 1.15616
Rangebound, fading off week high.
EUR/USD recovered hard off the 1.1503 sweep low on Thursday's soft US core PPI, but two pushes into 1.1589 this week have been rejected, leaving a double-top read just under the weekly high. Price has since faded back to the 1.1557 pivot, slipping below EMA(20) while still holding above EMA(50), with RSI(14) cycling back to the midline. The hawkish-but-unguided ECB tone has kept upside capped while the firmer dollar pins the cross.
Support: 1.1557, 1.1530, 1.15026
Resistance: 1.15895, 1.1576
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.1590 invalidates the double-top and opens room higher
Loss of 1.1557 pivot risks a rotation back toward range lows near 1.1503
ECB Nagel speech 14:30 UTC and US Michigan sentiment 14:00 UTC could shift this read
EUR/USD rebounded sharply off Thursday's 1.1506 weekly low after the cooler US core PPI print, reclaiming the EMA20 and stretching to a 1.1590 weekly high into the NY session. That level capped two attempts and price is now consolidating sub-1.1590, holding the 1.1565 swing-low pivot referenced as the post-pullback floor. RSI(14) sits mid-range near 56, reflecting the stall after the recovery leg rather than fresh momentum.
Support: 1.1565, 1.1530, 1.1506
Resistance: 1.1589, 1.1585
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.1590 weekly high needed for sustained recovery
Failure to hold 1.1565 swing low reopens 1.1530 and the 1.1506 weekly low
US Michigan sentiment and ECB's Nagel today could shift this read
12:01 UTC
Recovery, consolidating near week high · RSI 55 · price 1.15712
Higher lows since Wednesday's dip, capped at 1.1589.
EUR/USD recovered hard off Wednesday's 1.1503 low into Thursday, where the hot US PPI print sparked a sharp wick reversal back above 1.1550 and a push to the 1.1589 weekly high. Price has since held above the EMA20 around 1.1565 with RSI cycling in the mid-50s, but the 1.1589 area has now rejected two attempts as the USD bounce caps upside. Pair sits at 1.1571, mid-range between EMA20 support and the weekly high.
Support: 1.1565, 1.1551, 1.1503
Resistance: 1.1589
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.1589 opens the path back toward recovery extension
Failure to hold the 1.1565 ema20 exposes 1.1551 session low
ECB's Nagel speech at 14:30 UTC could shift the read
Recovery off Wednesday's 1.1507 weekly low has held, with price reclaiming EMA20 and EMA50 into the NY session and grinding back toward the week high. Twin rejections at 1.1589 mark a double top capping the move; the pair now consolidates in a 1.1565-1.1589 band. The USD fade from its three-month DXY high did more for EUR relief than the in-line ECB rhetoric itself.
Support: 1.1565, 1.1550, 1.1507
Resistance: 1.1589, 1.1600
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.1589 opens the path to the 1.1600 psych level
Failure to hold 1.1565 swing low risks a slip toward 1.1550
Michigan sentiment + UoM inflation expectations 14:00 UTC could shift this USD-led read
EUR/USD bounced hard off the 1.1507 week low into the NY session, with the USD fade from its three-month DXY high doing more for the relief than the in-line ECB picture itself. Price holds above EMA(20) and EMA(50), but two pushes to 1.1589 stalled at the same level, leaving a double-top imprint into the close. RSI(14) cooling from the highs as 1.15728 consolidates below resistance.
Support: 1.1557, 1.1507, 1.1500
Resistance: 1.1589, 1.1600
What it said to watch
Sustained H1 close above 1.1589 opens the 1.1600 pivot
Loss of 1.1557 reopens the move back toward the 1.1507 week low
UoM sentiment + inflation expectations 14:00 UTC could shift the USD-led read
ECB Nagel 14:30 UTC on July-hike timing
10:01 UTC
Recovering, consolidating below range top · RSI 56 · price 1.15746
Range-bound 1.1557–1.1589 after sweep of week low.
EUR/USD swept the week low near 1.1503 and snapped back sharply after the in-line ECB hike, then settled into a tight 1.1557–1.1589 range through the NY session. Price holds above EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI mid-50s, but the 1.1589 range top and the 1.1600 pivot have repeatedly capped the recovery. Equal highs around 1.1586–1.1589 mark the supply that needs clearing for a fresh leg.
Support: 1.1557, 1.1503
Resistance: 1.1589, 1.1600
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.1600 pivot would extend the recovery; 1.1589 range top caps for now
Loss of the 1.1557 range floor exposes the 1.1503 week low
ECB's Nagel (14:30 UTC) and US Michigan sentiment (14:00 UTC) could shift this read
10:01 UTC
Range, recovered to top · RSI 57 · price 1.15746
Ranging 1.1507-1.1590 this week, capped near range top.
EUR/USD spiked off the week low near 1.1507 during the NY session as the USD pulled back from its DXY high on cancelled Iran-strike headlines, recovering to a 1.15895 week high. Attempts at 1.1585-1.1589 have been capped twice, leaving price consolidating just above the EMA20 with RSI(14) cycling in the mid-50s. The 1.1600 pivot remains the line in the sand for a fuller recovery; the session low at 1.1557 is holding for now.
Support: 1.1566, 1.15571, 1.15068
Resistance: 1.15895, 1.1600
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.15895 and through the 1.1600 pivot opens the path to a broader recovery
Failure to hold the 1.1557 session low reopens the 1.1507 week low
ECB Nagel (14:30 UTC) and US Michigan sentiment / inflation expectations (14:00 UTC) could shift this read
EUR/USD spent most of the week pinned in a 1.1530–1.1580 range before dipping to 1.15026 and rebounding sharply to 1.15895 as the USD haven bid faded on news Trump called off planned Iran strikes. Price now sits near 1.1565, hovering around EMA(20) after easing back from the spike high, with RSI(14) cooling from the rebound into the mid-50s. The 1.15026 dip and snap-back leaves a false-break footprint at the week low.
Support: 1.1557, 1.15026, 1.1500
Resistance: 1.15895, 1.15848
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.1589 week high opens the path toward the 1.1600 SMA confluence
Failure to hold 1.1557 swing low reopens the 1.1500 / week-low region
ECB speakers (Sleijpen 10:30, Nagel 14:30 UTC) and US Michigan sentiment 14:00 UTC could shift this read
Iran/Middle East headlines remain the dominant near-term driver via USD haven flows
EUR/USD swept the 1.15026 week low into the NY session yesterday before snapping back to 1.15895 — the week high — on a softer DXY as Iran de-escalation headlines unwound the haven bid. Price has since drifted into a tight consolidation around 1.1565, holding above EMA20 with RSI(14) hovering near 50. The 1.15730 prior high and 1.15895 week high cap the topside, with the in-line ECB hike already digested.
Support: 1.1557, 1.1550, 1.15026
Resistance: 1.1573, 1.15895
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.15895 invalidates the range-top read and reopens the recovery path
Failure to hold the 1.15570 swing low exposes 1.15500 psych and the 1.15026 week low
Michigan sentiment + UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could shift this read
Iran/Hormuz headlines remain the dominant near-term driver via the USD haven bid
Price swept Thursday's NY-session low to 1.1503 then rebounded sharply to a 1.1589 week high, and has since consolidated near 1.1570 above EMA20. The ECB's hawkish 25bp hike delivered no fresh EUR upside as the move was fully priced, while a hot US PPI and Iran-driven USD bid capped the recovery below 1.1600. RSI(14) cycling mid-range after working off the dip.
Support: 1.1557, 1.1510
Resistance: 1.1589, 1.1600
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.1589 opens the path to the 1.1600 sma-confluence
Failure to hold 1.1557 reopens the 1.1510 weekly low
ECB speakers (Sleijpen 10:30 UTC, Nagel 14:30 UTC) and US Michigan sentiment 14:00 UTC could shift this read
EUR/USD recovered sharply off Thursday's 1.15026 sweep — the reversal bar reclaimed 1.1550 and drove price back toward 1.1590 as the dollar faded from its ten-week high. Since then price has consolidated above EMA(20), capped just shy of the 1.1590 week high and the 1.1600 SMA-confluence noted in the macro read. RSI(14) sits mid-range near 56, reflecting the two-way tone after the in-line ECB hike.
Support: 1.15571, 1.15144, 1.15026
Resistance: 1.15895, 1.1600
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.15895 opens the path to the 1.1600 psych level
Failure to hold 1.15571 risks a slide back toward 1.1510
ECB speakers Sleijpen (10:30 UTC) and Nagel (14:30 UTC) could shift this read on July-hike hints
07:01 UTC
Two-way, ranging this week · RSI 53 · price 1.15609
Swept lows, recovered into resistance.
Price swept down to the 1.1500 psych area into Wednesday's NY session then snapped back with a sharp bullish reversal bar to a week high at 1.15895, helped by the dollar coming off its 3-month high on profit-taking. The move has since stalled below the 1.1565/75 ING cap, with H1 chopping around the EMA20 near 1.1557 and RSI(14) cycling mid-range. Two-way price action persists while the 1.1500 swing low holds and the cap caps.
Support: 1.1557, 1.15026, 1.1500
Resistance: 1.1575, 1.15895
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.15895 opens the path toward the 1.1600 SMA confluence
Failure to hold 1.15026 swing low puts the 1.1500 psych level back in play
Michigan sentiment + UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
07:01 UTC
Range, momentum neutral · RSI 54 · price 1.15609
Consolidating mid-range below week high.
EUR snapped off the 1.1500 area and ran to a week high of 1.1589 in the NY session as DXY profit-took off a three-month high. Price has since faded back to 1.1561, holding above EMA20/EMA50 but capped by the 1.1565/75 zone ING flags as resistance. RSI(14) sits near 53, neutral after the earlier impulse.
Support: 1.1531, 1.15026, 1.1500
Resistance: 1.1575, 1.15895, 1.1600
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.1589 opens the path toward 1.1600
Failure to hold 1.1531 risks a retest of the 1.15026 swing low
Michigan sentiment / UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could shift this read
EURUSD double-bottomed near 1.1500 and ripped higher through the NY session yesterday, tagging the 1.15895 week high before stalling into the 1.1565/75 cap — the core PPI miss tempered the hot-headline USD bid that had pinned the pair at two-month lows. Price now holds above a rising EMA20 with RSI(14) recovered into the mid-50s. The 1.1575 cap is the immediate pivot, with 1.15895 the line that defines the week's range top.
Support: 1.1556, 1.15026, 1.1500
Resistance: 1.1575, 1.15895
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.15895 invalidates the rejection read and opens room higher
Failure to hold the 1.1556 EMA20 re-exposes the 1.1500 swing low
US Michigan sentiment + inflation expectations 14:00 UTC could shift this read
Price swept the 1.1500 area twice this week and rebounded hard through the NY session Thursday, printing a week high at 1.1589 before stalling. Hot US PPI kept the dollar firm into the rally, yet EUR/USD is now consolidating inside the flagged 1.1565/75 cap with RSI(14) easing back from the highs. The move sits above EMA20 and EMA50, with the 1.1561 pullback low marking near-term demand.
Support: 1.1561, 1.1503, 1.1500
Resistance: 1.1575, 1.1589, 1.1600
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.1589 opens the path to the 1.1600 psych level
Failure to hold 1.1561 reopens the 1.1500 double-bottom area
US Michigan sentiment at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
ECB speakers Sleijpen and Nagel a swing factor for EUR swap rates
05:01 UTC
Recovering off lows, ranging · RSI 56 · price 1.15713
Rebound from swept 1.1500, consolidating below cap.
Price swept the 1.1500 figure during the NY session yesterday, printing 1.15026 before a sharp recovery to a 1.15895 session high, and is now consolidating near 1.1571 just under the 1.1575 cap flagged in context. EUR stayed heavy despite the hawkish ECB hike while a hot US PPI print kept the dollar firm, yet the rebound has carved a higher low at 1.15613. RSI(14) sits mid-range around 56 with price holding above EMA20 and EMA50.
Support: 1.15613, 1.15026
Resistance: 1.1575, 1.15895
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.15895 invalidates the 1.1575 cap and opens higher
Failure to hold 1.15613 reopens the swept 1.1500 low
Michigan Sentiment 14:00 UTC could shift the dollar and this read
Swept lows then sharp rebound, holding near session high.
EUR/USD twice based around 1.1500 — Monday's low and yesterday's flush both held — before a sharp NY-session rally took it to 1.15895, the week's high. Price has since pulled back into the 1.1565/75 cap flagged by the digest and is consolidating above EMA20 and EMA50, with RSI cycling in the upper-50s. The bounce came despite a firm dollar on hot US PPI, so the move reads as a relief recovery within a heavier two-month structure.
Support: 1.15613, 1.1529, 1.1500
Resistance: 1.1585, 1.15765
What it said to watch
H1 close below 1.15613 negates the higher-low sequence off the rebound
Rejection at 1.15850 session high keeps the 1.1565/75 cap intact
Michigan sentiment at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
EUR/USD flushed to 1.1503 in early Thursday trade before a sharp NY-session recovery to 1.1590, leaving a sweep of the 1.1500 round number; price now sits back inside the week's range at 1.1567. The 1.1565/75 cap flagged in the context has held the rebound, with rejection at 1.1590 yesterday. Price holds above EMA20 and EMA50, RSI cycling mid-range after the bounce.
Support: 1.15026, 1.1500
Resistance: 1.1575, 1.15895
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.1575 cap opens the path back to the 1.1590 week high
Failure to hold 1.1500 pivot confirms a lower-low toward the 1.1400 zone
ECB speakers (Sleijpen 10:30, Nagel 14:30) and US Michigan Sentiment 14:00 UTC could shift this read
EUR/USD spiked to 1.1590 in the NY session as the hot US PPI print and hawkish-but-priced ECB hike left the pair whippy, but the move was rejected and price has faded back into the 1.1565/75 cap flagged by the digest. Holding above EMA20/50 with RSI(14) mid-range near 53, this remains a contained range between 1.1500 support and the 1.1590 week high. The euro continues to trade defensively near two-month lows with no upside follow-through on the ECB delivery.
Support: 1.1530, 1.1500, 1.1503
Resistance: 1.1575, 1.1590
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.1575 cap opens the path back to 1.1590 week high
Failure to hold 1.1530 pivot confirms a lower low toward 1.1500
US Michigan sentiment (14:00 UTC) and ECB Sleijpen/Nagel speakers could shift this read
NY session yesterday drove a sharp impulse from 1.1503 to a 1.15895 session high after the hot US PPI print, but price poked above the 1.1565/75 cap zone and fell straight back, now sitting at 1.1563. The move holds above the weekly open near 1.1528 and EMA20/EMA50, yet the rejection at the cap and the soft pullback show the breakout did not stick. ECB's hike is fully priced, leaving USD-side data to set direction.
Support: 1.1531, 1.15284, 1.15068
Resistance: 1.15748, 1.15895
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.1590 reopens the upside; failure keeps price pinned under the 1.1575 cap zone
Loss of the 1.1531 swing low exposes the weekly open and the 1.1507 wed low
US Michigan sentiment at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
EUR/USD spiked off the 1.1503 dip into the NY session yesterday, printing a week high at 1.1589 as the hot US PPI print and Iran risk kept the dollar bid only briefly. Price has since faded back into the 1.1565/75 cap flagged all week, holding just above EMA20 around 1.1555. Structure remains a choppy range bounded by the 1.1500 floor and yesterday's 1.1589 high.
Support: 1.1555, 1.1528, 1.1500
Resistance: 1.1589
What it said to watch
Hourly close above 1.1589 extends the rebound toward fresh highs
Failure to hold EMA20/1.1555 re-exposes the 1.1500 floor
US Michigan sentiment at 14:00 UTC could shift the dollar read
02:01 UTC
Range, recent leg higher · RSI 56 · price 1.15691
Week range, bounce reclaiming the cap.
A sharp recovery off 1.1507 through the NY session reclaimed the 1.1565/75 cap that contained this week's range, with price stretching to 1.15895 before easing back to 1.1569. RSI(14) has cooled from the rally peak while price holds above EMA(20) and EMA(50). The prior cap now sits beneath price as first support, with 1.1558 the initial pullback reference.
Support: 1.1558, 1.1541, 1.1508
Resistance: 1.15895
What it said to watch
H1 close back below 1.1558 puts the 1.1565/75 reclaim in doubt
Close above 1.15895 opens the path higher
US Michigan sentiment 14:00 UTC, then FOMC next week, are the key risks
EUR/USD based at Thursday's 1.15026 week low and ran sharply higher through the NY session after the US PPI-driven move, clearing the 1.1565/75 cap to print a week high at 1.15895. Price has since stalled and is consolidating just under that high, with RSI(14) cooling from the rally peak but holding above 50 while price stays above EMA20 and EMA50. The former 1.1565 cap is the immediate pivot on a pullback.
Support: 1.15575, 1.1541, 1.15026
Resistance: 1.15895, 1.1600
What it said to watch
Michigan sentiment + UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could shift this read
H1 close back below 1.15575 reasserts the 1.1565 cap as resistance
Acceptance above 1.15895 opens the path toward the 1.1600 psych level
EURUSD rallied through the NY session yesterday after sweeping the 1.1505 area, reclaiming the 1.1565/75 cap that had pinned price all week. It now holds above EMA20 with RSI in the low-60s, consolidating just under the 1.1589 week high. The bounce ran counter to the firmer USD backdrop from the hot US PPI print.
Support: 1.1533, 1.1508
Resistance: 1.1575, 1.15895
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.1589 week high opens room higher
Failure to hold the 1.1575 cap returns price into the prior range
US Michigan sentiment 14:00 UTC could shift this read
01:01 UTC
Uptrend off the sweep, momentum cooling · RSI 63 · price 1.15726
Broke above week range top after sweeping the lows.
After grinding near two-month lows all week, price swept the week low at 1.15026 in the NY session and reversed sharply, breaking the 1.1565/75 cap flagged in the digest and printing a session high at 1.15895. The last few bars are consolidating just below that high, with RSI(14) easing back from the rally peak. The prior cap around 1.1565 now sits as the first support shelf.
Support: 1.1565, 1.1541, 1.15026
Resistance: 1.15895
What it said to watch
H1 close back below 1.1565 prior cap would negate the breakout and reopen the week low at 1.15026
UoM Michigan sentiment Fri 14:00 UTC could shift the USD read and this structure
00:01 UTC
Recovery off lows, momentum building · RSI 68 · price 1.15851
Breakout above week ceiling.
EUR/USD bottomed twice near 1.1500 mid-week before a sharp NY-session recovery yesterday cleared the 1.1565/75 cap that had held all week, pushing into the week high at 1.1590. The move ran against the broader EUR-fragile narrative, lifting RSel(14) toward 67 with price now riding above both EMA(20) and EMA(50). Price is consolidating just under 1.1585 after the impulse, holding the breakout so far.
Support: 1.1565, 1.1545, 1.1500
Resistance: 1.1590
What it said to watch
Loss of 1.1565 prior cap would put the recovery breakout back in question
An hourly close back below 1.1500 april trough re-opens the 1.1400 zone
UoM Michigan sentiment (14:00 UTC) could shift USD tone and this read
00:01 UTC
Uptrend, fresh breakout · RSI 66 · price 1.15851
Broke above week's range top.
EUR/USD spent most of the week boxed between 1.1500 and the 1.1565/75 cap, then cleared it during the NY session as soft US core PPI undercut the dollar, surging to 1.1589. Price now holds near the week high above EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI(14) elevated; the post-surge bars into the Asia session have been shallow and low-range, keeping the breakout intact.
Support: 1.1557, 1.1546, 1.1500
Resistance: 1.15895
What it said to watch
H1 close back below 1.1557 returns price into the prior week range
Michigan sentiment at 14:00 UTC could shift the USD read
Failure to break 1.1589 leaves the week high as a double-tested ceiling