Higher lows off 1.1151, capped below 1.1204 day high.
The week's dominant move came through Monday's London and NY sessions, a drop from the 1.1217 week high to the 1.1151 week low, a 17-month low. Tuesday's rebound came as the USD softened ahead of US CPI. Price built higher lows back through the weekly open at 1.1184 and reclaimed EMA(20) and EMA(50), with a fresh ema20/50 cross and RSI(14) near 62. The 1.1204 day high, near the 78.6% retracement of Monday's drop, rejected two attempts during NY hours, and price is holding around the 61.8% level into the Asia session.
Support: 1.1189, 1.1184, 1.1151
Resistance: 1.1204, 1.1217, 1.1243
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1204 day high exposes the 1.1217 week high, with Friday's 1.1243 prior high beyond
Loss of the recovery line and the ema20/50 zone near 1.1189 puts the 1.1184 weekly open back in play
Failure to hold 1.1184 reopens the 1.1151 week low and resumes the lower-low sequence
Lagarde (02:10 / 08:30 UTC) and US CPI (Wed 12:30 UTC, core f/c 0.2% m/m) could materially shift this read
Monday's London-into-NY slide from the 1.1217 Monday high to the 1.1151 week low completed a 91-pip drop from Friday's 1.1243 high. Tuesday's rebound came as the USD eased on lower yields and crude ahead of US CPI. It carved higher lows through the 1.1185 higher low and reclaimed the 50% retracement of the Fri-Mon drop near 1.1197, with price above EMA(20) at 1.1189 and EMA(50), and RSI(14) near 57. The Tuesday high at 1.1204 rejected both the NY-open push and a late-session retest, and price is now drifting onto the higher-lows trendline near 1.1198 in thin late-NY trade.
Support: 1.1189, 1.1185, 1.1151
Resistance: 1.1204, 1.1217, 1.1243
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1204 Tuesday high clears the 61.8% fib at 1.1208 and opens the 1.1217 Monday high
Loss of the higher-lows trendline, then EMA(20) and the 1.1185 higher low, returns focus to the 1.1151 week low
Friday high at 1.1243 is the top of the drop; reclaiming it would void the downtrend read on this timeframe
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% m/m) and Lagarde at 02:10 and 08:30 UTC could materially shift this read
21:01 UTC
Downtrend, corrective bounce under way · RSI 61 · price 1.11977
Lower high at 1.1243 intact; Tuesday higher lows into 50% retrace.
Monday faded from the 1.1217 Asia high (mon high) through London and NY to the 1.1151 week low, a 17-month trough, extending Friday's slide from the 1.1243 week high. Tuesday rebuilt from the Asian range with a sequence of higher lows on a softer USD as yields and oil eased ahead of US CPI. Price now sits at the 50% retracement of the Friday–Monday decline, above EMA20 with RSI(14) near 61. NY's push to 1.1204 (tue high) met rejection just under the 61.8% level.
Support: 1.1189, 1.1184, 1.1151
Resistance: 1.1204, 1.1217, 1.1243
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.1204 tue high and the 61.8% fib opens the 1.1217 mon high, with the 1.1243 week high as the lower-high marker
A break of Tuesday's higher-low trendline and the 1.1189 EMA20 puts the 1.1184 weekly open back in focus
Loss of the weekly open turns attention back to the 1.1151 week low
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC, core m/m vs 0.2%, could materially shift this read
Lagarde at 02:10 and 08:30 UTC is event risk for the Asian and London sessions
Higher lows since Monday's 1.1151 low, capped by lower highs from Friday.
EUR/USD has retraced most of Monday's London-to-NY slide from the 1.1217 monday high to the 1.1151 week low, building higher lows through Tuesday as US yields and oil eased ahead of US CPI. Price holds above EMA(20) near 1.1190 with RSI(14) around 64. It is pressing the 1.1204 tue high from the NY session, near the 78.6% retracement of Monday's drop, and remains just under the lower highs from Friday's 1.1243 peak. So far the dip below last week's 1.1172 range low reads as a false break.
Support: 1.1190, 1.11842, 1.11511
Resistance: 1.12042, 1.12167, 1.12425
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1204 tue high / 78.6% retracement opens the 1.1217 monday high, then the 1.1243 friday high and the lower highs line
Loss of ema20 and the 1.1184 weekly open, together with a break of the higher lows line, negates Tuesday's recovery structure
A return below the 1.1151 week low would void the false break read
Lagarde (Wed 02:10 and 08:30 UTC) and US CPI (Wed 12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
18:02 UTC
Recovering off week low, capped below Monday high · RSI 56 · price 1.11881
Monday lower-low leg to 1.1151 reversed; Tuesday higher lows, consolidating above weekly open.
Monday's slide ran from the 1.1217 week high to the 1.1151 week low, with the heaviest selling in the NY session. Tuesday's recovery built higher lows from the Asia session as US yields pulled back, a USD-led bounce rather than EUR strength. The NY-session push was rejected at the 1.1204 Tuesday high, just beyond the 78.6% retracement of the Monday slide. Price is now consolidating just above the 1.1184 weekly open, where EMA(20) sits, with RSI(14) near 56.
Support: 1.11842, 1.11748, 1.11511
Resistance: 1.12042, 1.12167, 1.12425
What it said to watch
Hourly close below the 1.1184 weekly open and the Tuesday higher lows trendline brings the 1.1175 higher low and 1.1151 week low back into focus
Close above the 1.1204 Tuesday high opens the 1.1217 week high, with the 1.1243 Friday high above that
Lagarde (Wed 02:10 and 08:30 UTC) and US CPI (Wed 12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
Lower highs intact; Tuesday higher lows off week low.
EUR/USD gapped lower into Monday's 1.1184 weekly open, then sold off through London and NY to a 1.1151 week low. It recovered Tuesday as US yields eased, a USD-led bounce per the digest. Tuesday's higher lows track a rising trendline from the week low, and price is back above EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) near 61. The NY-open rejection at the 1.1204 day high stalled the rebound between the 50% and 61.8% fib of the Thursday-to-Monday decline, leaving the lower-high sequence from the 1.1243 prior high intact below the 1.1217 Monday high.
Support: 1.1184, 1.1170, 1.1151
Resistance: 1.1204, 1.1217, 1.1243
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1217 Monday high breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 1.1243 prior high in focus
Break of the Tuesday higher lows trendline and the 1.1184 weekly open exposes the 1.1170 higher low, then the 1.1151 week low
Repeated failure at the 1.1204 day high keeps the bounce corrective
ECB's Lane at 18:30 UTC and Lagarde at 02:10/08:30 UTC could shift this read
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC; a core print away from 0.2% m/m could materially move this pair
EURUSD put in a double bottom at 1.1151/1.1154 across Monday's NY close and Tuesday's Asia session. Since then it has built higher lows back to the 61.8% fib of Monday's 1.1217–1.1151 drop, with the lift driven by softer US yields and a dollar pullback rather than euro demand. The NY-open push to the 1.1204 Tuesday high met rejection just above Friday's 1.1202 close, right at the lower-high trendline from the 1.1243 Friday high. Price holds above EMA(20) near 1.1182, with RSI(14) at 60.
Support: 1.11818, 1.11748, 1.11511
Resistance: 1.12042, 1.12167, 1.12425
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1204 Tuesday high breaks the lower-high trendline and exposes the 1.1217 weekly high
Failure at the lower-high trendline and a break of the higher-low trendline below 1.1175 returns focus to the 1.1151 weekly low
Holding above EMA(20) near 1.1182, which sits with the weekly open at 1.1184, keeps the rebound structure intact
Lagarde Wed 02:10 and 08:30 UTC and US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% m/m) could materially shift this read; ECB's Lane speaks today 18:30 UTC
Lower highs since Friday; higher lows off week low.
Monday's slide ran from the 1.1217 monday high in Asia through London and NY to a 1.1151 week low, a 17-month trough. Tuesday's bounce, driven by USD softness on lower yields and oil rather than euro demand, built higher lows and reclaimed the weekly open at 1.1184 alongside EMA(20) and EMA(50), now converging near 1.1182–1.1184. The NY-open push to the 1.1204 tue high was rejected at the lower-highs trendline from Friday's 1.1243 prior high, close to the 78.6% retrace of the monday slide, with RSI(14) holding near 61.
Support: 1.1184, 1.1175, 1.1151
Resistance: 1.1204, 1.1217, 1.1243
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1204 tue high and the lower-highs trendline would break the sequence and open 1.1217 monday high, then 1.1243 prior high
Failure to hold the weekly open at 1.1184 and the 1.1175 higher low ends Tuesday's higher-lows recovery and puts the 1.1151 week low back in focus
ECB's Lane at 18:30 UTC today, Lagarde Wed 02:10/08:30 UTC and US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs since Friday; higher lows off Monday's low.
Monday's London-NY sell-off from the 1.1217 week high broke last week's 1.1172 floor and printed a 1.1151 week low. Tuesday's rebound, driven by USD softness rather than euro demand, has built higher lows along a rising trendline and lifted price back above EMA(20) and the 1.1184 weekly open, with RSI(14) near 63 after sitting near 30 at Monday's low. Price is now retesting the 61.8% retracement of the Monday drop just under the 1.1197 day high and 1.1202 prior close, while the lower-high trendline from Friday's 1.1243 peak still frames the downtrend.
Support: 1.1184, 1.1175, 1.1151
Resistance: 1.1197, 1.1202, 1.1217
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1202 prior close opens the 1.1217 week high and the lower-high trendline
Break of the rising trendline and the 1.1184 weekly open would expose the 1.1175 higher low
Failure to hold 1.1175 re-exposes the 1.1151 week low
ECB's Lane at 18:30 UTC and Lagarde Wed 02:10/08:30 UTC could materially shift this read
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC: a core print away from 0.2% m/m could break this structure either side
12:02 UTC
Downtrend, recovering off the week low · RSI 58 · price 1.11872
Higher lows off 1.1151; lower high at 1.1217 intact.
EUR/USD broke below last week's 1.1165 floor from Monday's London morning into the NY open, pressured by hawkish Fed rhetoric and geopolitical risk, and printed a week low at 1.1151. A USD-led recovery through Tuesday's Asian range has built higher lows, reclaimed EMA(20) and EMA(50), and holds just above the weekly open at 1.1184; the 09:00 UTC dip found EMA(20) near 1.1177. RSI(14) has cycled from below 30 on Monday to 58, while the London-open spike to a day high of 1.1196 faded at the 61.8% retracement of Monday's drop, with the prior close at 1.1202 and the week high at 1.1217 overhead.
Support: 1.11842, 1.11771, 1.11511
Resistance: 1.11962, 1.12015, 1.12167
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1196 day high clears the 61.8% retracement of Monday's drop and exposes the prior close at 1.1202 and the week high at 1.1217
Loss of the weekly open and EMA(20) near 1.1177 breaks the higher lows sequence and reopens the 1.1151 week low
ECB Lane today at 18:30 UTC, Lagarde on Wed at 02:10/08:30 UTC and US CPI on Wed at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower high 1.1217, week low 1.1151, higher lows since.
The week opened with a gap lower to 1.1184. Monday's London-into-NY selloff, driven by Hammack's hawkish Fed remarks and oil above $93, set a lower high at 1.1217 and a week low at 1.1151. Asia and early London today retraced to the 61.8% of Monday's drop as yields eased, but the London-open spike was rejected at the 1.1196 session high under the lower highs line, and price is back on the week open just above EMA(50) and EMA(20) with RSI(14) neutral near 53.
Support: 1.11842, 1.11748, 1.11511
Resistance: 1.11962, 1.12015, 1.12167
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1196 session high clears the lower highs line and opens Friday's prior close at 1.1202, then the Monday high at 1.1217 near 1.1220 resistance
A break below the 1.1175 higher low snaps the recovery trendline and puts the 1.1151 week low back in focus
ECB Lane at 18:30 UTC tonight and Lagarde Wed 02:10/08:30 UTC could materially shift this read
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the main event risk for this week's structure
Lower highs since Friday; bounce rejected at weekly open.
Monday's dominant move ran from the 1.1217 week high in early Asia through London and NY to a 1.1151 week low by the NY close. Hawkish Fed comments from Hammack and WTI above $93 drove it, extending the lower-high sequence from Friday's 1.1243 peak. Tuesday's USD-led rebound overshot the 61.8% retracement to a 1.1196 london high in the first hour of London, then slipped back below the 1.1184 weekly open and EMA(50). Price now sits on EMA(20) near 1.1176, which lines up with the 38.2% level, with RSI(14) back near 50.
Support: 1.1176, 1.1170, 1.1151
Resistance: 1.1184, 1.1196, 1.1217
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1196 london high breaks the lower-highs line and exposes the 1.1217 week high
Failure to hold EMA(20) and the 1.1170 asia low reopens the 1.1151 week low
Repeated rejection at the 1.1184 weekly open keeps the bounce corrective
ECB Lane at 18:30 UTC today and US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
09:03 UTC
Downtrend since Friday, corrective bounce in progress · RSI 55 · price 1.11831
Lower highs since Friday; Tuesday higher lows retesting weekly open.
Lower highs have formed since Friday's 1.1243 peak. Monday's London-NY selloff ran from the 1.1217 monday high to the 1.1151 17m low as Hammack's hawkish remarks and $93 oil lifted the dollar. Tuesday's softer-USD bounce reclaimed EMA(20), but the London open spike to the 1.1196 london high was rejected just beyond the 61.8% of the Monday leg, and price is now retesting the weekly open at 1.1184 with RSI(14) back near 54 from sub-30 on Monday.
Support: 1.11755, 1.11701, 1.11511
Resistance: 1.11842, 1.11962, 1.12167
What it said to watch
An H1 close above the 1.1196 london high breaks the lower-highs sequence and opens the path to the 1.1217 monday high, near the 1.1220 resistance flagged in the digest
An H1 close below the recovery line from Monday's low, then loss of EMA(20) at 1.1175 and the 1.1170 asia low, would put the 1.1151 17m low back in focus
Price holding below the weekly open keeps the bounce corrective within the Monday leg
ECB's Lane (18:30 UTC today), Lagarde (Wed 02:10/08:30 UTC) and US CPI (Wed 12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
Lower highs since Friday's 1.1243 peak; Tuesday's rebound stalled near the 50% retracement.
EUR/USD gapped below Friday's 1.1202 prior close at Sunday's open. London extended the slide on Monday, and the drop accelerated in NY hours to a 1.1151 week low as oil above $93 and hawkish Fedspeak lifted USD. Tuesday's bounce from Asia through London open has reclaimed EMA(20) at 1.1175 and EMA(50) at 1.1182, but the London high at 1.1196 stalled at the 50% retracement of the drop, leaving the lower-high sequence from Friday intact while RSI(14) recovers to 60 from sub-30 Monday readings.
Support: 1.1182, 1.1175, 1.1151
Resistance: 1.1196, 1.1202, 1.1217
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1202 prior close fills the weekend gap and tests the lower-high line toward the 1.1217 week high
Loss of ema20 at 1.1175 and Tuesday's higher-low line puts the 1.1151 week low back in focus
Lagarde (Wed 02:10 and 08:30 UTC) and US CPI (Wed 12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
Lower highs and a lower low; higher lows since Tuesday Asia.
Monday's Asia push to the 1.1217 week high reversed through London and into NY, with Hammack's hawkish remarks and a firm USD driving a 65-pip slide to the 1.1151 week low. That low sits under last Wednesday's 1.1165, extending the lower highs from Friday's 1.1243 peak. Tuesday's Asia and early London rebound has carved higher lows above the EMA(20) at 1.1172, and RSI(14) has climbed back to about 50 from oversold. Price is now testing the 1.1184 weekly open, where the 50% fib of Monday's drop and the EMA(50) also sit, after in-line German HICP gave no fresh impulse.
Support: 1.1172, 1.1151
Resistance: 1.1184, 1.1201, 1.1217
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1184 weekly open and 50% fib reclaims the EMA(50) and opens the path to the 1.1201 prior close
Close above the 1.1217 week high breaks the lower highs sequence
Rejection at the weekly open and a break of the 1.1172 ema20 and the higher lows line returns focus to the 1.1151 week low
Waller today 07:45 UTC, Lagarde Oct 14 02:10/08:30 UTC and Wednesday's US CPI could materially shift this read
06:02 UTC
Downtrend, Asia rebound pressing the weekly open · RSI 49 · price 1.11782
Lower highs from Friday's 1.1243 peak; Monday lower low at 1.1151, corrective bounce since.
The week opened with a 17-pip gap lower at 1.1184. Monday's Asia bounce to the monday high at 1.1217 was sold through London and NY as Hammack's hawkish remarks and a geopolitics-bid USD drove a 65-pip slide to the week low at 1.1151. Tuesday's Asia session has recovered to retest the weekly open from below, between the 38.2% and 50% fib of Monday's drop and just back above EMA(20) at 1.1172, with RSI(14) back near 49 and the lower-high trendline from Friday still capping below the 1.1200 round number.
Support: 1.1172, 1.1151
Resistance: 1.1184, 1.1200, 1.1217
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1184 weekly open (50% fib, EMA50 confluence) would shift the read toward a retest of the 1.1200 round number
Slip back below ema20 at 1.1172 reopens the 1.1151 week low; a break there extends the lower-low sequence
Eurozone HICP at 06:00 UTC, Waller at 07:45 UTC and ECB speakers today could materially shift this read
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the week's main catalyst for the lower-high trendline near 1.1206
Lower highs since Friday's 1.1243 peak; week low 1.1151 in Asia.
EURUSD has printed lower highs since Friday's 1.1243 peak. Monday's early bounce to the 1.1217 monday high faded, and a London-led selloff extended in NY through the prior wk low at 1.1165 to a week low of 1.1151, as oil-driven USD demand and French spread stress weighed on EUR. Tuesday's Asian bounce stalled at 1.1178, the asian high, near the 23.6% retrace of the Fri–Tue drop. Price now sits on EMA(20) at 1.1171, still below EMA(50) and the 1.1184 weekly open, with RSI(14) recovered to the mid-40s.
Support: 1.1171, 1.11645, 1.11511
Resistance: 1.11775, 1.11842, 1.12167
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1178 asian high and the 1.1184 weekly open would bring the lower-highs trendline near 1.1206 and the 1.1217 monday high into view
Failure to hold ema20 and the prior wk low at 1.1165 reopens the 1.1151 week low, with 1.1145 just beneath
Eurozone HICP at 06:00 UTC and Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC could shift this read; US CPI Wednesday 12:30 UTC is the larger catalyst
Lower highs and lower lows since Friday; corrective bounce from the week low.
Friday's 1.1243 prior high and Monday's 1.1217 monday high form a lower-high sequence. Monday's London and NY sessions then broke the 1.1165 wed low to set a 1.1151 week low, as the hawkish-Fed, oil-driven dollar bid and French fiscal stress weighed on EUR. Asia has since lifted price back above the wed low and onto the ema20 near 1.1171, with RSI(14) recovering to around 51, but the bounce is stalling at the 38.2% retracement of Monday's drop, below the weekly open at 1.1184, which sits with the 50% level and EMA(50).
Support: 1.1171, 1.1165, 1.1151
Resistance: 1.1184, 1.1217, 1.1243
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.1184 weekly open and 50% retracement would break the lower-high sequence
Failure back below the ema20 and the 1.1165 wed low puts the 1.1151 week low back in focus; a break there extends the lower-low structure
Eurozone HICP at 06:00 UTC today (f/c 3.3% y/y) could materially shift this read
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the week's main USD-side risk for this structure
Monday high at 1.1217 and the descending lower-highs line from the 1.1243 prior high cap any extended recovery
03:02 UTC
Downtrend, Asia bounce testing the week's sell-off · RSI 55 · price 1.11761
Lower highs from Friday's 1.1243 peak; corrective rebound from the week low.
EUR/USD gapped lower at Monday's open and filled the gap to the 1.1217 week high in Asia. It then sold off through London and NY to a 1.1151 week low as hawkish Fed commentary and WTI above $93 lifted the dollar, with French fiscal stress weighing on EUR. Tuesday's Asia bounce has lifted price back above EMA(20) to the 38.2% retracement of that leg near 1.1176, and RSI(14) has recovered from the low 30s to the mid-50s. Price still sits below the weekly open and EMA(50) around 1.1184 and inside the lower-high sequence from Friday's 1.1243 peak.
Support: 1.1171, 1.1151
Resistance: 1.1184, 1.1201, 1.1217
What it said to watch
Eurozone HICP at 06:00 UTC today (f/c 3.3% y/y) could materially shift this read; a hot print meets crowded EUR shorts
H1 close above the weekly open/EMA(50) at 1.1184 and the 61.8% fib near 1.1192 would challenge the lower-high sequence, with the prior close at 1.1201 and the week high at 1.1217 above
Loss of EMA(20) at 1.1171 would put the 1.1151 week low back in focus; a break there extends the lower-low structure
US CPI on Wed 12:30 UTC is the larger event risk for the week's structure
02:02 UTC
Downtrend, first bounce stalling at EMA20 · RSI 41 · price 1.11691
Lower highs since Friday; Wed–Fri range broken lower Monday.
The week opened with a gap lower at 1.1184 (weekly open) under Friday's 1.1202 close. The Asia session lift to 1.1217 faded from London open, and the NY session extended to 1.1155 as Hammack's hawkish remarks and WTI above $93 bid the dollar, breaking the Wed low at 1.1165 and the Wed–Fri range. Monday's drop bottomed at 1.1151 (week low) at the Tuesday open. The Asia rebound is now pressing the EMA(20) near 1.1171, the first test since Monday's London selloff, with RSI(14) recovering only to ~41.
Support: 1.11645, 1.11511, 1.1145
Resistance: 1.1171, 1.11842, 1.1200
What it said to watch
HICP at 06:00 UTC today: a hot print is the main near-term risk to the downtrend read
H1 close above the weekly open at 1.1184, which aligns with the lower-highs line and the 50% of Monday's drop, would break the lower-high sequence
Rejection at ema20 near 1.1171 keeps the lower-high structure intact
Failure to hold the week low at 1.1151 exposes the 1.1145 uob target and fresh lows
Reclaim of the 1.1200 round number would invalidate the range break
Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC and US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Mon range break below Wed low, lower highs since Fri.
Monday's Asia bounce to the 1.1217 week high on energy-ceasefire headlines reversed through London and NY. Hammack's hawkish remarks and WTI above $93 then drove price through the weekly open at 1.1184 and the Wed low at 1.1165, breaking the Wed–Fri range. Since the NY close, price has compressed in a roughly 10-pip band just above the 1.1151 week low, below EMA(20) near 1.1169, with RSI(14) holding in the low 30s and not yet oversold.
Support: 1.1151, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.1165, 1.1184, 1.1217
What it said to watch
HICP at 06:00 UTC today: a hot print could test the Wed low/EMA(20) cluster at 1.1165–1.1169
H1 close back above the weekly open at 1.1184, the 50% of the Monday drop fib, would weaken the range-break read
Failure to hold the 1.1151 week low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.1100 round number
Lower highs line from Friday's 1.1243 peak caps near 1.1208; a break above it would neutralise the sequence
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC and Waller Tue 07:45 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from Friday; range break below 1.1165, tight base above 1.1151.
The week opened with a gap lower at 1.1184 from Friday's 1.1202 close. An Asia-session pop to the 1.1217 week high faded, London took out 1.1200, and the NY session broke last week's 1.1165 prior low to print a week low at 1.1151. The selling came as Hammack's hawkish comments and WTI above $93 lifted the USD. Price sits below EMA(20) near 1.1170 and EMA(50), with RSI(14) near 31; the late-session marginal lower low came with a firmer RSI, a tentative bullish divergence inside a tight consolidation.
Support: 1.1151, 1.1145
Resistance: 1.1166, 1.1184, 1.1217
What it said to watch
H1 close back above 1.1166 prior low and EMA(20) would neutralise the range break
Failure to hold 1.1151 week low exposes the UOB target at 1.1145
Reclaim of the 1.1184 week open (near 50% of Monday's drop) would test the lower highs line from Friday's 1.1243
Eurozone HICP 06:00 UTC today (f/c 3.3%) and Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC could shift this read; US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the larger risk