Lower highs and lower lows since 21 Aug peak; two-week compression above the 1.1150 low.
EURUSD has been in a downtrend since the 21 Aug peak at 1.1711. The lower-high, lower-low chain broke the July base and the 1.1324 june low on the 1 Oct leg, and price now sits below a falling EMA(50) and below the ema20 near 1.1275. The move tracks a firm USD on oil and Fed tightening, plus a French risk premium on the euro. Over the last two weeks the daily lows have flattened just above the 17-month low at 1.1150, with RSI(14) near 29 oversold, and price is pressing the descending trendline drawn from the 9 Sep high through the 1.1243 swing high.
Support: 1.1151, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.1243, 1.1275, 1.1324
What it said to watch
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (core m/m f/c 0.2%) could materially shift this read; Lagarde at 02:10 and 08:30 UTC adds EUR-side risk
A daily close below the 17-month low at 1.1150 extends the lower-low chain and opens the 1.1100 psych level
A daily close above the 1.1243 swing high clears the descending trendline and breaks the lower-high sequence, with the ema20 near 1.1275 next
Reclaiming the 1.1324 june low would bring the 38.2% Aug–Oct fib near 1.1365 into view
11:14 UTC
Downtrend, oversold, no base yet · RSI 26 · price 1.11596
LH/LL chain since the Aug 21 high at 1.1711.
EURUSD has printed lower highs and lower lows since the Aug 21 peak at 1.1711. The Sep 9 lower high at 1.1654 capped the recovery, and the Sep 30 break of the June–July summer base near 1.1330 opened the slide to the 17m low around 1.1151. French fiscal stress, $90+ oil and a hawkish Fed kept rebounds shallow, with the Oct 6 bounce stalling at the oct high of 1.1276, just under the 23.6% retrace of the Aug–Oct drop and below the descending trendline from Sep 9. RSI in the mid-20s marks a stretched move, and price sits below a falling EMA(50) with daily ranges running near 60 pips.
Support: 1.1151, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.1276, 1.1330, 1.1654
What it said to watch
Daily close below the 17m low at 1.1151 extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.1100 round number
Close above the oct high at 1.1276 and the descending trendline would be the first break in the LH/LL chain since September
Recovery back above the summer base near 1.1330, close to the 38.2% retrace of the Aug–Oct drop, would undo the Sep 30 range break
Oversold RSI with no bullish divergence yet; a higher low on RSI against a new price low would signal the downtrend is losing momentum
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC and Lagarde Wed 02:10/08:30 UTC could materially shift this read; a hawkish Lagarde or soft core CPI is the main squeeze risk
Lower high at 1.1654 stays the swing-trend pivot for the quarter