EUR/USD has been penned in a 1.1360–1.1450 range for roughly two weeks after the sharp early-window drop from 1.16 into the 1.1325 swing low. Monday's soft US CPI print sparked a pop to 1.1462 — near the 50% retrace of that decline — but supply capped the move and price faded back toward the range midpoint. ATR(14) is compressed with EMA20 and EMA50 flattening beneath price, consistent with a coiling range.
Support: 1.1390, 1.1360, 1.1325
Resistance: 1.1450, 1.1472
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.1450 opens a retest of the 1.1472 three-week high
A clean break of the 1.1390 pivot exposes 1.1360, then 1.1325
German HICP Wed 07:00 GMT could break the range read
21:01 UTC
Range-bound, mid-range · RSI 50 · price 1.14187
1.1360-1.1450 range holding since mid-month.
After the sharp early-window slide from 1.1616 to the 1.1325 swing low, EURUSD has settled into a 1.1360-1.1450 range for the past two weeks. Price faded from the 1.1472 three-week high back toward mid-range, with the soft US CPI miss and ECB hawkishness leaving the pair two-way and pinned. ATR(14) around 50 pips reflects a compressed, rotational regime rather than trend extension.
Support: 1.1410, 1.1360, 1.1325
Resistance: 1.1450, 1.1472
What it said to watch
H4 close below 1.1410 pivot exposes the 1.1360 range low, with 1.1325 next
H4 close above 1.1450 range top opens a retest of the 1.1472 three-week high
German HICP Wed 07:00 GMT could break the range read
17:01 UTC
Range after early-month drop · RSI 52 · price 1.14256
Two-week range, 1.1360-1.1450.
EURUSD has held a two-week range between the 1.1360 support zone and the 1.1450 range top after the early-month slide from 1.1616. The final bar spiked to 1.14619 on the dovish US CPI miss then rejected back to close near 1.14256, keeping the range top intact. ATR is moderate and EMAs are clustered near price, consistent with range compression rather than trend.
Support: 1.1390, 1.1360, 1.1325
Resistance: 1.1450, 1.1472
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.1450 opens the path to the 1.1472 3wk high
Sustained loss of 1.1360 range low exposes 1.1325 then the 1.1210 zone
EZ HICP Wed and US PPI tomorrow could break the range read
17:01 UTC
Range-bound, no directional bias · RSI 54 · price 1.14256
Multi-week range, 1.1360-1.1450.
After the early-window slide from 1.1616 toward the 1.1325 swing low, EURUSD has spent two-plus weeks compressing in a 1.1360-1.1450 range. The soft US CPI print lifted price back to the range top, where the latest bar spiked to 1.1462 and was rejected, closing near 1.1426. Momentum is neutral with price hugging both EMAs mid-range.
Support: 1.1390, 1.1360, 1.1325
Resistance: 1.1450, 1.1472
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.1450 range top opens the 3wk high at 1.1472
Sustained loss of 1.1360 range low exposes 1.1325 swing low
EZ HICP Wed and US PPI tomorrow could force the range break
13:02 UTC
Downtrend stalled, now ranging · RSI 46 · price 1.14056
Range after impulsive selloff, higher lows building.
The mid-window slide from 1.16 into the 1.1325 swing low has given way to a two-week range between 1.1380 and 1.1450, with price carving successive higher lows off that base. ATR(14) has compressed to ~25 pips and price sits just under both EMA20 and EMA50 near 1.1406, the lower half of the range. Two-way flow reflects the ECB-hawkish tailwind against a firmer USD into the US CPI print.
Support: 1.1380, 1.1325
Resistance: 1.1450, 1.1472
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.1450 range top opens the path to the 1.1472 swing high
Failure to hold 1.1380 range low exposes the 1.1325 swing low
US CPI and Lagarde (13:00 GMT) land in the next bars and could break the range either side
13:01 UTC
Downtrend stalled, now ranging · RSI 48 · price 1.14056
Range-bound 1.1360-1.1450 after impulsive decline.
The sharp early-window slide from 1.1619 into 1.1325 has given way to a two-week range between 1.1360 and 1.1450, with price consolidating just under the 1.1420 mid-range pivot. Lower highs since the 1.1472 rejection show supply capping rallies, while demand has repeatedly held above 1.1377. Two-way flow persists as EUR balances ECB-hawkish support against USD demand into the US CPI reaction and Lagarde.
Support: 1.1380, 1.1360, 1.1325
Resistance: 1.1420, 1.1450, 1.1472
What it said to watch
H4 close below 1.1360 confirms range break, exposing 1.1325 then 1.1210
H4 close above 1.1450 breaks the range top toward the 1.1472 prior high
Lagarde speech and US CPI reaction could materially shift this read
09:02 UTC
Downtrend, range consolidation · RSI 43 · price 1.13972
Recovered off 1.1324 low, rolling back to range floor.
Downtrend from the early-month 1.1619 high into the 1.1324 low remains the dominant swing; the recovery stalled precisely at the 50% retracement near 1.1472 and price has since drifted back to the range floor around 1.1390. ATR has compressed to roughly 23 pips, with EUR pinned in a 1.1360-1.1450 box ahead of today's US CPI. Price trades below both EMA20 and EMA50, keeping the tilt heavy.
Support: 1.1390, 1.1360, 1.1325
Resistance: 1.1450, 1.1472
What it said to watch
H4 close below 1.1390 range floor opens 1.1360 then the 1.1325 swing low
Reclaim of the 1.1450 range top needed to retest the 1.1472 3wk high
US CPI today 12:30 UTC + Warsh/Lagarde could break the range either way
09:01 UTC
Downtrend, basing into range · RSI 44 · price 1.13972
Ranging near lower edge after multi-day decline.
EURUSD sold off from the 1.1619 area to a 1.1325 swing low over the first week of the window, then based and carved a two-week range roughly 1.1390-1.1472. Price is back at the lower edge near 1.1390 support with ATR compressed and both EMAs capping overhead. The euro stays pinned in-range as the market awaits the US CPI print.
Support: 1.1390, 1.1360, 1.1325
Resistance: 1.1450, 1.1472, 1.1420
What it said to watch
US CPI today 12:30 UTC is the main catalyst and could break this read
H4 close below 1.1390 confirms range break, opening 1.1360 then 1.1325
Reclaim of 1.1450 puts the 1.1472 range top back in play
Lagarde 13:00 UTC could firm EUR independently of the CPI reaction
05:02 UTC
Range after breakdown, drifting lower · RSI 43 · price 1.13933
Two-week range, price near floor.
Price broke down from the 1.16 area early in the window and has since consolidated in a 1.1360–1.1450 band for roughly two weeks. The last several bars are drifting back toward the range floor near 1.1390 with price below both EMA20 and EMA50, and repeated rejection at the 1.1450–1.1472 cap keeps the upside contained. ATR is moderate — no directional expansion yet inside the range.
Support: 1.1360, 1.1325, 1.1210
Resistance: 1.1450, 1.1472
What it said to watch
H4 close below 1.1360 confirms a lower-low, exposing 1.1325 then 1.1210
Reclaim of 1.1450 needed to re-challenge the 1.1472 three-week high
ECB Lagarde 13:00 UTC and US CPI could materially shift this read
05:01 UTC
Range-bound, rolling toward support · RSI 44 · price 1.13933
Multi-week range after prior decline; lower highs capping.
EURUSD has settled into a 1.1360-1.1450 range since the mid-month recovery off 1.1325, with lower highs since the 1.1472 peak keeping a lid on the bounce. Price is drifting back toward the lower half of the range after rejection near 1.1445, and now sits below both EMA20 and EMA50 as the range floor comes into view. HICP printing in line at 2.4% and ECB pause chatter have kept the Euro capped against a firm USD.
Support: 1.1388, 1.1360, 1.1325
Resistance: 1.1445, 1.1472
What it said to watch
Lagarde speech today 13:00 UTC is the near-term catalyst for this range
Break of 1.1360 support exposes 1.1325 and, on extension, 1.1210
H4 close above 1.1445/1.1472 resistance cluster needed to extend the bounce
US CPI at 12:30 UTC could shift the USD side of this read
01:01 UTC
Downtrend faded into range · RSI 43 · price 1.13834
Multi-week range, lower half.
The mid-June slide from 1.1619 to 1.1325 has since given way to a three-week range roughly 1.1325-1.1475, with EUR boxed in by soft Eurozone CPI against the oil-driven USD bid. Price is drifting in the lower half after supply capped moves near 1.1460, and the latest leg down has pressed back toward the 1.1390 support with both EMAs overhead. ATR is holding steady, no compression signal yet.
Support: 1.1360, 1.1325
Resistance: 1.1450, 1.1475
What it said to watch
H4 close below 1.1360 confirms a lower-low and opens the 1.1325 range low
Reclaim of 1.1450 range cap needed to re-target the 1.1475 three-week high
Lagarde speech today 13:00 UTC and US CPI could materially shift this read
01:01 UTC
Range within broader downtrend, drifting lower · RSI 42 · price 1.13834
Three-week range, lower highs capping.
EURUSD has been boxed between 1.1360 and 1.1450 for three weeks after the mid-window slide off 1.16193, with lower highs (1.1472, 1.1460, 1.1445) capping each bounce. Price is back in the lower half of the range, below EMA20 and EMA50, after rejection near 1.1445 rolled it to 1.1383. ATR sits in a compressed regime, consistent with the coiling range ahead of the Lagarde risk event.
Support: 1.1360, 1.1325
Resistance: 1.1450, 1.1472
What it said to watch
Lagarde speech today 13:00 UTC is the near-term catalyst that could break this range
H4 close below 1.1360 confirms a lower-low and opens the 1.1210 zone
A close above 1.1450 would neutralise the lower-high structure toward 1.1472