Higher highs/higher lows off the 1.1113 CPI low; post-CPI consolidation top at 1.1157 broken in Asia.
The hot US CPI print at 12:30 UTC took out the London low and bottomed at 1.1113 three times. The early Asia session then broke the 1.1157 post-CPI consolidation top and has retraced past 78.6% of the CPI drop. Price is pressing toward the pre-CPI London low at 1.1188 with RSI(14) near 77.
Support: 1.1157, 1.1150, 1.1113
Resistance: 1.1188, 1.1198
What it said to watch
A close above the 1.1188 London low and the 1.1198 CPI high would erase the CPI drop
A slip back under the 1.1157 breakout level makes the Asia session move a false break
Failure to hold the 1.1150 Asian low reopens the 1.1113 CPI low
EU CPI at 06:45 UTC, then US PPI, retail sales and claims at 12:30 UTC Thu, could materially shift this read
23:31 UTC
Short-term uptrend, recovering the post-CPI drop · RSI 74 · price 1.11723
Higher lows off 1.1113 base; NY high cleared in early Asia.
The hot US CPI flushed EUR/USD from the 1.1198 pre-CPI high to a 1.1113 CPI low. That low held on four tests through NY hours, and the early-Asia leg has since cleared the 1.1157 NY high to a 1.1174 session high. Price has retraced about 70% of the drop, sits back above the 1.1150 Asian low and former support, and RSI(14) is running hot near 74.
Support: 1.11573, 1.1150, 1.11128
Resistance: 1.11744, 1.11799, 1.11982
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.1180 (fib 78.6) exposes the 1.1198 pre-CPI high
Slip back under the 1.1157 ny high returns price to the 1.1150 asian low
Break of rising support from the 1.1113 cpi low invalidates the higher-low chain
Thu 12:30 UTC US PPI, retail sales and claims cluster could reset this read; EU CPI at 06:45 UTC first
HH/HL recovery off the CPI low, now testing the 61.8% retrace of the day's drop.
The hot US CPI print at 12:30 UTC flushed EUR to the 1.1113 cpi low. The pair has since built a higher-low trendline, reclaimed the 1.1150 pivot and broke the 1.1157 prior high in thin early-Asia trade. Price is pressing the 61.8% fib of the day's drop at 1.1174, with RSI(14) near 77.
Support: 1.1157, 1.1150, 1.1113
Resistance: 1.1174, 1.1188, 1.1211
What it said to watch
A close back below the 1.1157 prior high would turn the breakout into a false break
Loss of the 1.1150 pivot and the higher-low trendline reopens the 1.1113 cpi low
Acceptance above the 61.8% fib exposes the 1.1188 london low, then the 1.1211 day high
Eurozone CPI at 06:45 UTC, then US PPI, Retail Sales and claims at 12:30 UTC Thu, could override this read
Higher lows off 1.1113 cpi low; ny high taken out in early Asia.
Hot US CPI at 12:30 UTC drove a 1.1198→1.1113 drop, then a double bottom at the cpi low (1.1113) gave way to a steady higher-low recovery. Early Asia has pushed through the ny high at 1.1157 and beyond the 61.8% retracement of the cpi drop fib (~1.1166), RSI(14) near 75 on thin volume.
Support: 1.11573, 1.11499, 1.11128
Resistance: 1.11875, 1.11982
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the ny high at 1.1157 would turn the Asia push into a false break
Loss of the asia low at 1.1150 breaks the higher-low trendline and reopens the cpi low at 1.1113
Pre-cpi low at 1.1187 and the cpi spike origin at 1.1198 are the next references above, about 17–28 pips away
US PPI, Retail Sales and Claims Thu 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows since 1.1113 base; late NY high broken in early Asia.
The hot US CPI drop from 1.1198 found a base twice at the 1.1113 cpi low (double bottom). A steady higher-low chain since then has carried price through the late ny high at 1.1157 in early Asia. Price is now pressing the 61.8% fib of the CPI drop at 1.1166 with RSI(14) near 67, while the thin Asia range holds above its asia low at 1.1150.
Support: 1.11573, 1.1150, 1.1113
Resistance: 1.11656, 1.11875, 1.1200
What it said to watch
Rejection at the 61.8% fib at 1.1166 would leave the CPI drop retracement capped; acceptance above it exposes the London low at 1.1188, then the 1.1200 round number
A slip back below the ny high at 1.1157 and the HL trendline turns the break into a false break
Losing the asia low at 1.1150 would put the cpi low at 1.1113 back in focus
EU CPI at 06:45 UTC lands in the London open window; the US PPI/Retail Sales cluster at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Double bottom at 1.1113, tight 1.1148–1.1158 range under 50% fib.
The hot US CPI print at 12:30 UTC dropped EURUSD ~85 pips from the 1.1198 pre-cpi high to 1.1113, where a double bottom formed in NY hours. The rebound has stalled at the 50% fib of the CPI drop, pinned between the 1.1148 range low and 1.1158 range top in thin post-NY trade, with RSI(14) near 60.
Support: 1.1148, 1.1113
Resistance: 1.1158, 1.1198
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1158 range top and 50% fib opens the path to the 1.1198 pre-cpi high
Failure to hold the 1.1148 range low puts the 1.1113 cpi low back in play
EU CPI at 06:45 UTC and the US PPI/Retail Sales/Claims cluster at 12:30 UTC Thu could materially shift this read
Tight range 1.1150–1.1157 above post-CPI double bottom.
Hot US CPI at 12:30 UTC knocked EURUSD from 1.1193 to a 1.1113 post-CPI low. A double bottom formed there during NY hours, and the ~44-pip rebound reclaimed the 1.1150 pivot. Early Asia session is compressing in a 1.1150–1.1157 band under the rebound high, with RSI(14) neutral near 58.
Support: 1.1150, 1.1114
Resistance: 1.11573, 1.11875
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1150 pivot exposes the 38.2% retrace of the post-CPI rebound near 1.1140, then the 1.1113 post-CPI low
Close above the 1.1157 rebound high opens the path to the 1.1188 London low, the pre-CPI breakdown area
EU CPI at 06:45 UTC, then US PPI, retail sales and claims at 12:30 UTC Thu, could materially shift this read
Base at 1.1113, recovery stalled under 1.1157, tight post-rollover range.
Hot US CPI at 12:30 UTC broke the London pre-cpi low at 1.1188 and sent EURUSD to a 1.1113 day low, where buyers stepped in four times during NY hours. The late-NY recovery stalled at the 1.1157 ny high, near the 50% fib of the CPI drop. After rollover, price is sitting at 1.1150 on thin liquidity, just above the 1.1147 pullback low, with RSI(14) near 57.
Support: 1.11474, 1.11326, 1.11128
Resistance: 1.11573, 1.11875, 1.1200
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1147 pullback low ends the late-NY higher-low chain and puts the 1.1133 swing low in play
Close above the 1.1157 ny high clears the 50% fib and opens the 1.1188 pre-cpi low, then the 1.1200 round number
Failure at the 1.1113 day low confirms a lower low and resumes the post-CPI downtrend
EU CPI at 06:45 UTC, then the US PPI, retail sales and claims cluster at 12:30 UTC Thu, could materially shift this read
Higher lows off 1.1113 double bottom, capped at 1.1157 session high.
The hot US CPI print at 12:30 UTC broke the Asian and London range and drove an 85-pip drop to the 1.1113 CPI low. That low was tested twice into NY for a double bottom. The late-NY bounce has stalled at the 50% fib, just under the 1.1157 session high, and price is consolidating above the 1.1149 swing low as liquidity thins after the NY close.
Support: 1.1149, 1.1113
Resistance: 1.1157, 1.1166, 1.1188
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1157 session high opens the 61.8% fib at 1.1166, then the 1.1188 london low
Failure to hold the 1.1149 swing low breaks the rising trendline and puts the 1.1113 cpi low back in focus
EU CPI at 06:45 UTC Thu, then US PPI, retail sales and claims at 12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Double bottom at 1.1113, now pinned under 50% retrace.
The hot US CPI print knocked EURUSD roughly 80 pips off the 1.1198 pre-CPI high to a 1.1113 CPI low, which held twice and formed a small double bottom. The NY-afternoon rebound has stalled around the 50% retrace. It has been boxed between the 1.1147 pullback low and the 1.1157 bounce high for about 2.5 hours, with ATR compressing into the late-NY rollover.
Support: 1.1147, 1.1113
Resistance: 1.1157, 1.1166, 1.1198
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1147 pullback low points to a rotation back toward the 1.1113 CPI low
Acceptance above the 1.1157 bounce high and the 1.1166 61.8% fib extends the rebound toward the 1.1198 pre-CPI high
Asian session typically thin; range likely holds until EU CPI at 06:45 UTC
US PPI, Retail Sales and jobless claims Thu 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
The hot US CPI print broke the pre-CPI base near 1.1193 and pushed price to a cpi low around 1.1113, where three tests held through NY hours. Late-NY recovery has stalled at the 50% retrace of the CPI drop. The ny high at 1.1157 has capped three times, and the pullback low at 1.1148 sits just underneath as the market heads into the Asia session with ATR down near 6 pips.
Support: 1.1148, 1.1113
Resistance: 1.1157, 1.1193, 1.1211
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1157 ny high and 50% retrace opens the path to the 1.1193 pre-cpi base, with the 1.1211 asia high above that
A break below the 1.1148 pullback low and the rally trendline would put the 1.1113 cpi low back in play
EZ CPI at 06:45 UTC and US PPI/retail sales/claims at 12:30 UTC Thu could materially shift this read
Higher lows off the 1.1113 double bottom, tight two-hour range under the 1.1157 NY high.
Hot US CPI at 12:30 UTC drove EURUSD about 60 pips through the London low to a 1.1113 CPI low, which held twice as a double bottom. The late-NY rebound has reached the 50% fib of the CPI drop, where the 1.1157 NY high has capped price for two hours. Price is holding the 1.1150 pivot, sits right at the EMA50, and RSI(14) is near 69.
Support: 1.1149, 1.1133, 1.1113
Resistance: 1.1157, 1.1188, 1.1200
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1157 NY high and 50% fib opens the London low at 1.1188, then the 1.1200 round number
Loss of the 1.1150 pivot exposes the 1.1133 higher low; a break there puts the 1.1113 CPI low back in play
Thin Asia session ahead; EU CPI at 06:45 UTC, then US PPI, retail sales and claims at 12:30 UTC (~16h) are the next scheduled risk to this read
Higher lows off 1.1113 base, tight range at 50% retrace.
The hot US CPI print at 12:30 UTC sent EURUSD from the 1.1198 pre-CPI high to a 1.1113 NY low, a floor that held on four separate tests. The late-NY rebound has retraced about 50% of the CPI drop, back above the 1.1150 pivot. It is now stalling in a tight 1.1149–1.1157 range under the rebound high, with price sitting on EMA50 and RSI(14) near 59.
Support: 1.1150, 1.11454, 1.1113
Resistance: 1.11569, 1.11656, 1.11982
What it said to watch
A close back below the 1.1150 pivot and the 38.2% fib at 1.1145 would turn the rebound high into a lower-high.
A break of the 1.1157 rebound high exposes the 61.8% fib at 1.1166, with the pre-CPI high at 1.1198 above.
Loss of the 1.1113 NY low would resume the post-CPI downtrend.
EU CPI at 06:45 UTC and US PPI, retail sales and claims at 12:30 UTC Thu could materially shift this read.
The hot US CPI print broke the London range and the 1.1150 pivot. NY hours then built a base at the 1.1113 cpi low after repeated tests. Late NY recovered back above 1.1150, the 1.1148 higher low held the retest, and price is now capped at the 50% fib of the CPI drop near 1.1157, roughly level with EMA50.
Support: 1.1148, 1.1113
Resistance: 1.1157, 1.1166, 1.1188
What it said to watch
A close above the 61.8% fib at 1.1166 extends the retracement toward the 1.1188 london low
A break of the 1.1148 higher low and the rising support line returns price below the 1.1150 pivot and reopens the 1.1113 cpi low
US PPI, retail sales and jobless claims Thu 12:30 UTC (~16h out) could materially shift this read; EU CPI at 06:45 UTC comes earlier
Triple-tested low at 1.1113, higher lows since; capped at 50% retracement.
The hot US CPI knocked EUR/USD about 80 pips to 1.1113 in the NY session. Three probes of that post-cpi low held, and a late-NY recovery reclaimed 1.1150. The bounce is now stalling at the 50% fib of the CPI drop near 1.1156, with EMA50 overhead and the 1.1148 pullback low underneath. RSI(14) is near 58.
Support: 1.1148, 1.1140, 1.1113
Resistance: 1.1156, 1.1166, 1.1188
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 50% fib at 1.1156 exposes the 61.8% fib at 1.1166 and the London low near 1.1188
Loss of the 1.1148 pullback low puts the 1.1140 prior high and the 1.1113 post-cpi low back in focus
Thu EU CPI at 06:45 UTC and the US PPI/Retail Sales cluster at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
19:46 UTC
Post-CPI downtrend, corrective bounce in late NY · RSI 64 · price 1.11504
Base at 1.1113, bounce capped at 1.1156 (50% fib).
Hot US CPI at 12:30 UTC broke the 1.1188 London low and dropped EURUSD to a NY low at 1.1113, which held on four tests. The late-NY recovery has stalled twice at 1.1156, the 50% fib of the CPI drop and close to EMA50. A rising trendline from the 1.1113 base sits under price, with RSI(14) near 64.
Support: 1.1147, 1.1133, 1.1113
Resistance: 1.1156, 1.1166, 1.1188
What it said to watch
A close below the 1.1147 pullback low and the rising trendline exposes the 1.1133 higher low
A close above 1.1156 (50% fib) opens the 61.8% fib at 1.1166, then the London low at 1.1188
Loss of the 1.1113 NY low would resume the CPI downtrend
EU CPI (06:45 UTC) and the US PPI/Retail Sales cluster (12:30 GMT Thu) could materially shift this read
19:31 UTC
Downtrend after CPI, late-NY rebound to 50% retrace · RSI 60 · price 1.11548
CPI breakdown from 1.1198, double bottom at 1.1113, higher-low chain since 16:15 UTC.
Hot US CPI at 12:30 UTC took EURUSD from 1.1198, just above the Asian range, to the 1.1113 cpi low, where a double bottom formed during NY hours. The late-NY rebound off the rebound trendline has reclaimed the 1.1150 pivot and is now pressing the 50% fib of the CPI drop at 1.1156, roughly where the EMA50 sits. RSI(14) is around 60.
Support: 1.1147, 1.1126, 1.1113
Resistance: 1.1156, 1.1166, 1.1200
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 61.8% fib at 1.1166 opens the path to the 1.1200 round number
Loss of the 1.1147 swing low and the rebound trendline puts the focus back on the 1.1126 neckline
A break below the 1.1113 cpi low resumes the post-CPI downtrend leg
US PPI / Retail Sales cluster Thu 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read
Triple bottom at 1.1113, higher lows into late NY, 1.1150 reclaimed.
Hot US CPI at 12:30 UTC flushed EURUSD from 1.1198 to the 1.1113 cpi low. That low was tested four times during NY hours before a late-NY run of rising lows reclaimed 1.1150, with the dip to the 1.1147 pullback low holding as a retest. The 1.1156 rally high sits on the 50% fib of the CPI drop and on EMA50. RSI(14) is near 59 and ATR(14) is around 7 pips.
Support: 1.11474, 1.11326, 1.11128
Resistance: 1.11559, 1.11875, 1.1200
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 1.1156 rally high (50% fib / EMA50) opens the 61.8% at 1.1166 and the 1.1188 london low
A close below the 1.1147 pullback low and the rising lows line brings the 1.1133 higher low and the 1.1113 cpi low back into view
The 1.1200 round number marks the top of the pre-CPI range
EU CPI at 06:45 UTC Thu, then the 12:30 GMT US PPI / retail sales / claims cluster, could materially shift this read
Triple low at 1.1113 held; HL chain off the lows into the EMA50.
Hot US CPI at 12:30 GMT dropped EURUSD from the 1.1188 pre-CPI low area to the 1.1113 cpi low, which held three times during NY hours. A late-NY rebound has cleared the 1.1145 cpi bounce high and is pressing the 1.1156 late-NY high and the EMA50 inside the 38.2–50% fib of the 1.1211–1.1113 drop.
Support: 1.1145, 1.1113
Resistance: 1.1156, 1.1188
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1156 late-NY high and EMA50 opens the 1.1162 50% fib, then the 1.1188 pre-CPI low
Slip back below the 1.1145 cpi bounce level puts the rebound trendline and the 1.1113 cpi low back in play
Thu 12:30 GMT US PPI, retail sales and jobless claims cluster could materially shift this read
Triple test of 1.1113 low, higher lows into 1.1150 retest.
The hot US CPI print at 12:30 UTC broke the London range and dropped price about 80 pips. The CPI low near 1.1113 held on three tests in the NY session. Late-NY recovery off that low has built higher lows and is now retesting the broken 1.1150 pivot from below, with the 50% fib of the CPI drop and EMA50 sitting at 1.1155.
Support: 1.1145, 1.1133, 1.1113
Resistance: 1.1155, 1.1166, 1.1188
What it said to watch
Rejection at the 50% fib (1.1155) keeps the CPI drop intact; an M15 close above it opens the 61.8% fib at 1.1166 and the pre-CPI low near 1.1188
Loss of the 1.1145 breakout level, then the 1.1133 higher low, breaks the rebound structure and puts the CPI low at 1.1113 back in play
Thu 12:30 UTC US PPI, retail sales and jobless claims could materially shift this read; EZ CPI at 06:45 UTC is secondary
Double bottom at 1.1113, higher lows since 16:15 UTC.
The hot US CPI at 12:30 UTC knocked EUR/USD about 60 pips through the London low at 1.1188 to a cpi low at 1.1113, where a double bottom formed during NY hours. The bounce after London close has reached the 38.2% retrace, right at the 1.1150 old floor. Price is back above EMA20 but still below EMA50, with RSI(14) near 53.
Support: 1.1133, 1.1113
Resistance: 1.1150, 1.1188
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1150 old floor opens the 50% retrace near 1.1156, then the 1.1188 london low
Break of the rising trendline and the 1.1133 swing low returns focus to the 1.1113 cpi low
US PPI/retail sales cluster Thu 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Double bottom at 1.1113, post-CPI lower high 1.1145 under test.
The hot US CPI (3.7% y/y) at 12:30 UTC knocked EUR/USD about 60 pips through the London low, with the slide basing twice at the 1.1113 day low. The late NY rebound cleared the 1.1126 neckline on rising lows and has price pressing the 1.1145 post-CPI high, which sits at the 38.2% CPI drop fib, with the old floor 1.1150 and EMA50 just above.
Support: 1.11326, 1.11263, 1.11128
Resistance: 1.11448, 1.1150
What it said to watch
Acceptance above the 1.1145 post-CPI high and the 1.1150 old floor opens the 1.1188 London low
A close back below the 1.1133 swing low and the 1.1126 neckline breaks the rising lows and voids the double bottom
Loss of the 1.1113 day low resumes the post-CPI downtrend
EZ CPI (Thu 06:45 UTC) and the US PPI/retail sales cluster (Thu 12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
Post-CPI base at 1.1113–1.1137, now pushing above base top.
The hot US CPI at 12:30 UTC took price from the 1.1198 pre-CPI high through the 1.1150 old floor in one bar. Demand held at the 1.1113–1.1114 session low three times during NY hours. After London close, price cleared the 1.1137 base top and is pressing the 1.1145 post-CPI high, which coincides with the 38.2% retracement of the CPI leg.
Support: 1.11371, 1.11217, 1.11128
Resistance: 1.11448, 1.1150, 1.11982
What it said to watch
A close back below the 1.1137 base top returns price to the post-CPI base
Acceptance above the 1.1145 post-cpi high and the 1.1150 old floor opens the 50% CPI-leg retracement near 1.1156
A break of the 1.1122 higher low and the rising lows line, then the 1.1113 session low, extends the CPI leg
Beige Book at 18:00 UTC, and Thursday 12:30 UTC Retail Sales/PPI, could materially shift this read
Post-CPI base broken to upside, testing 38.2% fib.
The hot US CPI print at 12:30 UTC knocked EUR/USD out of the London range near 1.1190 down to the 1.1113 cpi low. That low was tested three more times during NY hours before price broke the 1.1129 range top after London close. The rebound is now pressing the 38.2% fib of the CPI drop at 1.1145, just under the 1.1150 round number, with RSI(14) recovered to about 48.
Support: 1.1129, 1.1113
Resistance: 1.1145, 1.1150, 1.1188
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1150 round number opens the 1.1188 london low; rejection at the 38.2% fib keeps the CPI leg intact
Slip back below the 1.1129 range top returns price to the post-CPI base; loss of the 1.1113 cpi low extends the lower-low sequence
Fed Beige Book at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
17:31 UTC
Downtrend, post-CPI base forming · RSI 41 · price 1.11286
Range break lower on US CPI, now basing 1.1113–1.1130.
The hot US CPI at 12:30 UTC broke the pre-data 1.1188–1.1198 range in a 60-pip bar. The 1.1113 session low has held on four tests through NY hours. After London close, price set a higher low at 1.1121 and is pressing the 1.1130 range top, with the ema20 (1.1133, the 23.6% of the CPI drop fib) just above and RSI(14) recovering to 41.
Support: 1.1121, 1.1113
Resistance: 1.1130, 1.1133, 1.1145
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1130 range top and ema20 at 1.1133 opens the post-cpi high at 1.1145 (38.2% of the CPI drop fib)
Loss of the 1.1121 higher low returns price to the 1.1113 session low; a break there extends the lower-low sequence
Fed Beige Book and US Budget Statement at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Post-CPI consolidation 1.1113–1.1129 under lower highs.
The hot US core CPI at 12:30 UTC broke the London low near 1.1188 in a single 56-pip bar and set a 1.1113 session low, after Asia had capped the day at 1.1211. Through NY hours the pair has compressed between that session low, tested three times, and a 1.1129 range top. Highs are stepping down from the 1.1145 post-CPI high, which marked the 38.2% fib of the drop, with RSI(14) near 34.
Support: 1.1113, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.1129, 1.1145
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 1.1113 session low extends the post-CPI downtrend toward the 1.1100 round number
A close above the 1.1129 range top breaks the lower-highs sequence; the 1.1145 post-CPI high and 38.2% fib sit next above
The Fed Beige Book at 18:00 UTC could break the late-NY range
EZ CPI (EU norm) at 06:45 UTC tomorrow is the next EUR catalyst for the Asian range
Lower highs pressing into a flat 1.1113 session low.
The hot US CPI print at 12:30 UTC broke price out of the London range in a 60-pip bar, and the post-CPI hi at 1.1145 stalled at the 38.2% retracement of the CPI drop. Since then the 1.1113 session low has held three tests while a chain of lower highs (latest 1.1126) compresses price below the ema20 near 1.1134. RSI(14) sits near 34 late in the NY session.
Support: 1.1113, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.1126, 1.1134, 1.1145
What it said to watch
A close below the 1.1113 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.1100 round number
A close above the 1.1126 lower high breaks the lower-highs line; above the ema20 at 1.1134, the 1.1145 post-cpi hi and 38.2% fib come into view
Fed Beige Book at 18:00 UTC could shift USD momentum and this read
London broke the Asian range low near 1.1198 and slid to a 1.1188 london low. The hot US CPI print at 12:30 UTC then knocked EURUSD about 55 pips lower. Through NY hours price has consolidated with lower highs (cpi bounce 1.1137, then lower high 1.1126) into a cpi floor tested four times at 1.1113, and bounces have stalled short of the 38.2% retracement of the CPI drop, with RSI(14) near 31.
Support: 1.1113, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.1126, 1.1137, 1.1188
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1113 cpi floor confirms a range break and exposes the 1.1100 round number
Close above the 1.1126 lower high and the lower-high trendline weakens the compression read; 1.1137 cpi bounce high is next
Recovery toward the 1.1188 london low would retrace most of the CPI drop and negate the post-CPI structure
Fed Beige Book at 18:00 GMT could materially shift this read
Tight 1.1113–1.1129 range under descending highs after CPI break.
Hot US CPI at 12:30 UTC broke the London low near 1.1188 and drove a 60-pip drop to a session low of 1.1113. Since then NY hours have compressed into a 1.1113–1.1129 range, with four tests of the low holding under a line of descending post-CPI highs. RSI(14) sits near 33, off oversold, and the 38.2% fib of the CPI drop at 1.1145 lies overhead.
Support: 1.1113, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.1129, 1.1137, 1.1145
What it said to watch
ECB's Schnabel is speaking now (16:15 UTC); hawkish pushback could squeeze price through the range top
M15 close below the 1.1113 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.1100 round number
Close above the 1.1129 range top and the descending highs opens the 1.1137 bounce high and the 1.1145 fib 38.2
Fed Beige Book at 18:00 GMT could shift the read late in NY
Lower highs inside a 1.1113–1.1137 band after the CPI range break.
Hot US CPI at 12:30 UTC took out the 1.1188 London low in a single 60-pip bar. Since the CPI drop, price has compressed in a 1.1113–1.1137 band after London close, with a sequence of post-CPI lower highs under the 1.1145 cpi bounce high. RSI(14) sits near 33, off the oversold reading, and ATR(14) has roughly doubled to about 9 pips.
Support: 1.1113, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.1137, 1.1145, 1.1188
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1145 cpi bounce high breaks the post-CPI lower highs
Failure to hold the 1.1113 session low opens the 1.1100 round number
Schnabel at 16:15 UTC and the Fed Beige Book at 18:00 GMT could materially shift this read
Post-CPI range 1.1113–1.1130 below broken London low.
The hot US CPI beat at 12:30 UTC took out the London low near 1.1188 and the 1.1150 broken floor in one ~60-pip bar. Since then the NY session has held a tight base between the 1.1113 session low and a 1.1130 cpi cap, with RSI(14) recovering from oversold to ~32 and price still below both EMAs.
Support: 1.11128, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.11298, 1.11371, 1.1150
What it said to watch
Schnabel at 16:15 UTC could materially shift this read; hawkish pushback would test the 1.1130 cpi cap
An M15 close above the 1.1137 swing high and the fib 38.2 near 1.1145 opens the path to the 1.1150 broken floor
Failure to hold the 1.1113 session low resumes the downtrend toward the 1.1100 round number
Beige Book at 18:00 UTC is the next USD risk inside the NY session
Asia ran up to 1.1211 and London faded it. The hot US CPI print at 12:30 UTC then broke the London low near 1.1188 with a 60-pip bar, extending to a 1.1113 session low. NY is now compressing above that floor under a lower highs line from the 1.1137 swing high, with the latest lower high at 1.1123 and RSI(14) at 29.
Support: 1.11128, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.11233, 1.11371, 1.1150
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 1.1113 session low extends the CPI leg toward the 1.1100 round number
A close above the lower highs line and the 1.1137 swing high opens the 38.2% CPI drop fib near 1.1145 and the 1.1150 broken floor
ECB's Schnabel at 16:15 UTC could materially shift this read; the Beige Book at 18:00 UTC adds USD risk
15:31 UTC
Downtrend, post-CPI leg compressing · RSI 28 · price 1.11183
Lower highs into a flat base near the session low.
The hot US CPI print at 12:30 UTC broke the London low near 1.1188 and cut ~60 pips in one bar. Since then the NY session has printed successive lower highs at 1.1145 (the post-CPI high), 1.1137 and 1.1129 against a flat base at the 1.1113 session low. RSI(14) sits near 28 and ATR(14) has expanded to roughly 10 pips; the 1.1150 broken floor lines up with the 38.2% retracement of the Asia-high-to-NY-low move.
Support: 1.11128, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.11289, 1.1145, 1.1150
What it said to watch
A close below the 1.1113 session low extends the downtrend toward the 1.1100 round number
A close above the 1.1129 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline; the 1.1145 post-CPI high and 1.1150 broken floor sit above
ECB's Schnabel at 16:15 UTC could materially shift this read
Beige Book at 18:00 UTC is a second USD risk inside the session
Range break lower at CPI; NY consolidating 1.1114–1.1137 with lower highs.
The hot US CPI print at 12:30 UTC broke the London session low at 1.1188 in a single bar and extended the drop to the 1.1114 cpi low, tested twice. NY hours have since held a tight consolidation under the 1.1137 cpi bounce high, with a lower high at 1.1129 and RSI(14) near 30.
Support: 1.1114, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.1129, 1.1137, 1.1146
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1114 cpi low extends the downtrend toward the 1.1100 round number
Close above 1.1137 cpi bounce high breaks the lower-high sequence and opens the fib 38.2 at 1.1146
ECB's Schnabel at 16:15 UTC and the Beige Book at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
15:01 UTC
Downtrend, post-CPI drop now stalling · RSI 31 · price 1.11256
Range break lower, consolidating 1.1114–1.1146.
The 12:30 UTC US CPI beat broke the Asian/London range (1.1188–1.1211) with a 61-pip bar. Price has since consolidated during NY hours above the cpi low at 1.1114, which held twice. A lower high at 1.1137 and the post-cpi high at 1.1146 (near the 38.2 fib) cap the bounce, with RSI(14) near 31.
Support: 1.1114, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.1137, 1.1146
What it said to watch
A close below the cpi low at 1.1114 confirms a lower-low and opens the 1.1100 round number
A close above the post-cpi high at 1.1146 and the 1.1150 broken floor ends the consolidation read
ECB's Schnabel at 16:15 UTC: hawkish pushback is the main short-covering risk from these oversold levels
Beige Book at 18:00 UTC could extend Fed-hike repricing and the USD bid
14:46 UTC
Downtrend after CPI flush, basing near lows · RSI 28 · price 1.11258
London range low 1.1188 broken on CPI, lower high capping NY bounce.
The hot US CPI print at 12:30 UTC broke the London range low at 1.1188 and drove EUR/USD down about 80 pips, with the CPI bar high at 1.1145 left untouched since. Early NY session has printed a double low at 1.1114, while a lower high at 1.1137 caps the bounce. RSI(14) sits near 28 and ATR(14) has expanded to about 12 pips.
Support: 1.1114, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.1137, 1.1145, 1.1150
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1137 lower high exposes the 1.1145 CPI bar high and the 1.1150 broken floor, which aligns with the 38.2% retracement of the CPI drop
Failure to hold the 1.1114 double low confirms a lower-low and puts the 1.1100 round number in play
Fed's Bowman at 14:55 GMT and ECB's Schnabel at 16:15 UTC could materially shift this read; Beige Book follows at 18:00 GMT
Hot US CPI (core 0.3% m/m beat) at 12:30 UTC ended the London range by breaking the 1.1188 London low, then the 1.1150 floor. The ~85-pip CPI drop has twice held the 1.1114 session low, and the bounce stalled at 1.1137, a shallow retrace of the CPI drop. RSI(14) is near 25 and ATR has expanded to roughly 13 pips.
Support: 1.11139, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.11371, 1.1150
What it said to watch
A break below the 1.1114 session low exposes the 1.1100 round number
An M15 close above the 1.1137 CPI bounce high, then a reclaim of the 1.1150 floor, would mark a deeper retrace of the CPI drop
Fed's Bowman (14:55 GMT), ECB's Schnabel (16:15 UTC) and the Beige Book (18:00 GMT) could materially shift this read
Post-CPI lower highs under 1.1145, holding above 1.1114 session low.
London slipped below the 1.1198–1.1211 Asian range, then the hot US CPI at 12:30 UTC broke the 1.1188–1.1198 London range with a 60-pip bar to a 1.1114 session low. In early NY the CPI bounce stalled at 1.1145, near the 38.2% retrace, and the next bounce made a lower high at 1.1137. Price is pinned just above the session low with RSI(14) near 17.
Support: 1.11139, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.11371, 1.11448
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1145 CPI bounce high breaks the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 1.1114 session low exposes the 1.1100 round number
Fed's Bowman at 14:55 GMT and ECB's Schnabel at 16:15 UTC could materially shift this read
Beige Book at 18:00 GMT is late-session risk to the CPI move
London range broken lower on CPI, lower high at 1.1137 below 1.1145 bounce.
Hot US CPI at 12:30 UTC broke the 1.1188–1.1198 London range with a ~60-pip bar, extending to a 1.1114 cpi low early in the NY session. The cpi bounce stalled at 1.1145, right at the 38.2% of the cpi drop fib, and the follow-up high at 1.1137 sits lower; RSI(14) ~22 is oversold.
Support: 1.11139, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.11448, 1.11875
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.1114 cpi low opens the 1.1100 round number
M15 close above the 1.1145 cpi bounce and the post-cpi highs line exposes the 1.1188 london low
Fed's Bowman (14:55 GMT), ECB's Schnabel (16:15 UTC) and the Beige Book (18:00 GMT) could materially shift this read
London range floor broken on CPI; tight base above 1.1114 session low.
Hot US CPI at 12:30 UTC broke the 1.1187 London low and drove the pair roughly 85 pips off the 1.1211 Asian high to a 1.1114 session low, a 17-month low. Price is now basing at 1.1123–1.1130 after a lower-wick rejection of the low, with RSI(14) near 21. The 1.1145 bounce high sits just under the 38.2% fib of the Asian high–CPI low leg and the 1.1150 broken support.
Support: 1.11139, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.11448, 1.11875
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1145 bounce high and 1.1150 (38.2% fib) opens a deeper retracement toward the 1.1187 London low
Failure to hold the 1.1114 session low exposes the 1.1100 round number
Fed's Bowman at 14:55 UTC and ECB's Schnabel at 16:15 UTC could materially shift this read
One-bar range break below the London range; first pause just above the CPI low.
The hot US CPI print at 12:30 UTC (core 0.3% m/m vs 0.2%) broke the 1.1188–1.1198 London range in a single bar. The pair fell about 83 pips to the 1.1115 CPI low in the first hour of NY, and RSI(14) is near 14. Bars are now stalling just above the low. The post-CPI high at 1.1145 is the first cap and sits near the 38.2% level of the CPI drop fib.
Support: 1.11151, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.11448, 1.11875
What it said to watch
Recovery above the 1.1145 post-CPI high opens a deeper retrace of the CPI drop fib toward its 50% level near 1.1157
Close below the 1.1115 CPI low extends the leg toward the 1.1100 round number
Reclaim of the 1.1188 London low would undo the range break
Fed's Bowman at 14:55 GMT and ECB's Schnabel at 16:15 UTC could materially shift this read
Post-CPI range break below London range, fresh lower low at 1.1126.
Hot US core CPI at 12:30 UTC knocked EUR/USD about 67 pips out of the 1.1188–1.1198 London range, through the 1.1150 17m low to a 1.1126 CPI low. The only bounce stalled at 1.1145. In the first hour of NY, RSI(14) near 18 is deeply oversold and ATR(14) has expanded to ~9 pips.
Support: 1.11261, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.11448, 1.1150, 1.11875
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.1145 cpi bounce and the 1.1150 17m low would turn the break into a false break
Failure to hold the 1.1126 CPI low leaves the 1.1100 round number as the next reference
Reclaim of the 50% of the CPI drop fib (~1.1162) would put the 1.1188 London low back in view
Fed's Bowman at 14:55 GMT and the Beige Book at 18:00 GMT could extend or fade the CPI move
Impulsive range break lower; Asian range and London low cleared, price parked near spike low.
Hot US core CPI (2.6% y/y vs 2.5% f/c) knocked EUR/USD about 60 pips in one bar during the first hour of NY. The drop cut through the 1.1188 London low and the 1.1150 prior low, printing a cpi low at 1.1132. RSI(14) sits near 15, deeply oversold, with the follow-up bar holding near the lows and the 38.2% fib of the drop from the 1.1211 session high at 1.1162.
Support: 1.11323, 1.1100
Resistance: 1.1150, 1.11624, 1.11875
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.1150 prior low would mark the break as a false break
Failure to hold the 1.1132 cpi low extends the leg toward the 1.1100 round number
Recovery through the 38.2% fib at 1.1162 and the 1.1188 london low reopens the pre-CPI range
Fed's Bowman at 14:55 GMT and ECB's Schnabel at 16:15 UTC could materially shift this read
12:46 UTC
Downtrend, accelerating on the CPI bar · RSI 22 · price 1.11631
Lower highs from the Asian high; prior-day low broken at the NY open.
London faded the Asian high at 1.1211 in a lower-high sequence capped by the London trendline. The US CPI bar then dropped ~30 pips through yesterday's prior low at 1.1185 and closed on its low at 1.1163 (cpi low), with RSI(14) near 22 and the 17-mo low at 1.1150 the next reference below.
Support: 1.1163, 1.1150
Resistance: 1.1185, 1.1198, 1.1211
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.1185 prior low turns the break into a false break
Failure to hold the 1.1163 cpi low exposes the 17-mo low at 1.1150
Recovery above the 1.1198 pre-cpi high and the London trendline negates the lower-high sequence; 1.1211 asian high caps above
Bowman at 14:55 UTC and Schnabel at 16:15 UTC could shift this read
London lower highs from the Asian high; small higher lows off the 1.1188 London low.
London broke below the Asian range, sliding from the 1.1211 asian high to a 1.1188 london low. The pre-CPI bounce is now pressing the 1.1197 swing high, which sits at the 38.2% fib of that decline, with RSI(14) neutral near 47 and EMA50 overhead around 1.1200.
Support: 1.1188, 1.1185
Resistance: 1.1197, 1.1204, 1.1211
What it said to watch
US CPI at 12:30 UTC (15:30 broker) prints on the next bar and could materially shift this read; ATR(14) near 4.7 pips understates the likely release range
Rejection at the 1.1197 swing high keeps the London lower-high sequence intact
An M15 close above the 1.1204 prior high reopens the 1.1211 asian high
Failure to hold the 1.1188 london low exposes the 1.1185 prior low from yesterday's NY session
Lower highs from Asian high; tight 1.1188–1.1197 box.
London open rejected the Asian high at 1.1211 and broke the Asian low near 1.1198, printing a London low at 1.1188 as pre-CPI caution lifted the dollar. Price is now compressing in a 1.1188–1.1197 box below EMA20, and the 11:45 UTC bounce stalled at the pre-cpi high, which sits on the 38.2% retracement of the Asian high-London low move.
Support: 1.11875, 1.11849
Resistance: 1.11971, 1.11977, 1.12111
What it said to watch
US CPI at 12:30 UTC, minutes away, could materially shift this read; core MoM vs 0.2% is the swing number
M15 close back above the asian low near 1.1198 puts price back inside the Asian range and negates the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the london low at 1.1188 exposes the prior low at 1.1185
Reclaim of the 61.8% fib near 1.2021 opens a retest of the asian high at 1.1211
12:01 UTC
Intraday downtrend, pausing into US CPI · RSI 46 · price 1.11959
Asian range broken lower in London; corrective bounce into the broken low.
London opened with a sell-off from the 1.1211 Asian high and broke the 1.1198 Asian low, extending to a 1.1188 session low just above yesterday's 1.1185 prior low on pre-CPI caution. Price is back at the broken Asian low, which sits on the 38.2% fib retracement of the London slide and ema20, with RSI(14) neutral near 46.
Support: 1.11875, 1.1185
Resistance: 1.1198, 1.12062, 1.12111
What it said to watch
US CPI at 12:30 UTC (core MoM f/c 0.2%) could materially shift this read within the next bar
M15 close back above 1.1198 asian low negates the London range break; the 1.1206 swing high is next above
Failure to hold the 1.1188 session low exposes yesterday's 1.1185 prior low
Fed's Bowman at 14:55 GMT is secondary risk after the CPI print
London lower highs off the Asian high; basing above session low.
London sold off from the Asian high at 1.1211, lost the 1.1200 round number and printed a 1.11875 session low just above yesterday's 1.1185 prior low. The last two hours have compressed in a 1.1188–1.1195 band below the 1.1195 lower high, with RSI(14) near 41 and price under both EMAs ahead of US CPI.
Support: 1.11875, 1.11849
Resistance: 1.11952, 1.1200, 1.12111
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1195 lower high and the 1.1200 round number breaks the London lower-high sequence and brings the 50% fib at 1.1199 into play
Failure to hold the 1.11875 session low exposes yesterday's 1.1185 prior low
US Sep CPI at 12:30 GMT (core MoM f/c 0.2%) could materially shift this read; the asian high at 1.1211 marks the top of the London selloff
London lower highs from the Asian high, now compressing above the London low.
Asia stalled twice at the 1.1211 Asian high, then London broke the 1.1200 Asian low, printing lower highs along a descending trendline into a 1.1188 London low. Price has compressed between that low and a 1.1195 range top for two hours, holding just above the prior low at 1.1185 from yesterday's NY session, as the USD-driven bounce unwinds into US CPI.
Support: 1.11875, 1.1185
Resistance: 1.11952, 1.1200, 1.12111
What it said to watch
A close below the 1.1188 London low and the 1.1185 prior low extends the lower-low sequence
A close above the 1.1195 range top and the descending trendline puts the 1.1200 Asian low back in play, with the 1.1211 Asian high above
US Sep CPI at 12:30 UTC (core MoM f/c 0.2%) is likely to break the current compression, with Bowman at 14:55 GMT after it
Asian range broken lower at London open; lower highs into session low.
London broke below the 1.1197–1.1211 Asian range (asian low to asian high) at the open and has printed lower highs since. The move has stalled at a 1.1188 session low just above yesterday's 1.1185 prior NY low. RSI(14) is near 31, soft but not oversold, as the USD steadies into US CPI.
Support: 1.11875, 1.1185
Resistance: 1.1197, 1.1200, 1.12111
What it said to watch
US Sep CPI at 12:30 GMT, about 90 min out. Core MoM vs the 0.2% forecast could materially shift this read.
An M15 close below the 1.1185 prior NY low extends the lower-low chain of the London drop.
A reclaim of the 1.1197 asian low and the 1.1200 round number (38.2–50% of the London drop fib) would undercut the downtrend read.
10:46 UTC
Intraday downtrend since London open · RSI 36 · price 1.11906
Lower-high chain below the broken Asian range.
The Asian rally topped at 1.1211 (asian high) and reversed at London open. London has since cut through the asian low at 1.1198 on a steady lower-high chain, printing a session low at 1.1189 just above Tuesday's prior low near 1.1183. RSI(14) at 36 is soft but not oversold, and the slide fits the heavy EUR tone into US CPI.
Support: 1.11891, 1.11834
Resistance: 1.11977, 1.12111, 1.1220
What it said to watch
US CPI at 12:30 GMT (~1h45 away) could materially shift this read; core MoM vs the 0.2% forecast is the swing factor
An M15 close back above the asian low at 1.1198 (38.2% of the London drop) breaks the London lower-highs line and neutralises the downtrend read
Failure to hold the prior low at 1.1183 extends the lower-low sequence beyond yesterday's range
A recovery through the asian high at 1.1211 brings the 1.1220 key res into play
Asian range broken lower in London, lower highs, basing near 1.1190.
London unwound the Asia-session push to the 1.12111 Asia high, broke the 1.1198 Asian low and printed a chain of lower highs, from 1.12062 down to a 1.11901 London low. Price is now compressing just above that low with RSI(14) near 33, as the USD's corrective slide pauses ahead of US CPI.
Support: 1.11901, 1.11849
Resistance: 1.11977, 1.12062, 1.12111
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.1198 Asian low (near the 38.2% fib) would mark a failed break of the Asian range
Failure to hold the 1.1190 London low exposes the prior NY low at 1.1185
Close above the 1.12062 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline sequence
US September CPI at 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read; ATR is only ~5 pips into the release
10:16 UTC
Downtrend since London open, RSI soft · RSI 34 · price 1.11925
Asian range broken lower; lower highs and lower lows into mid-London.
London opened with a break below the 1.1198–1.1211 Asian range. A descending line of lower highs, latest at 1.1206, has capped bounces, and price has printed a session low at 1.1190 with RSI(14) near 34. The slip under the 1.1200 round number gives back part of the USD-driven bounce flagged in the digest, with US CPI the next catalyst.
Support: 1.1190, 1.1185
Resistance: 1.1200, 1.1206, 1.1211
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.1200 round number (50% fib of the London drop) would undercut the Asian range break
Failure to hold the 1.1190 session low exposes yesterday's ny lows near 1.1185
A break above the 1.1206 lower high clears the descending line and puts the 1.1211 asian high back in play
US CPI at 12:30 GMT (core f/c 0.2% m/m, 2.5% y/y) could materially shift this read
10:01 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since Asia · RSI 36 · price 1.11929
London broke the Asian range low; lower highs from 1.1211, session low 1.1190.
London faded the 1.1211 Asian high and broke the Asian range low and the 1.1200 psych level, printing a lower high at 1.1208 and a 1.1190 session low. RSI(14) at 36 is not stretched. The move unwinds part of the USD-led bounce ahead of US CPI.
Support: 1.1190, 1.11849
Resistance: 1.1200, 1.12077, 1.12111
What it said to watch
A close back above the 1.1200 psych and the lower-high trendline near 1.1201 (the 38.2% fib zone) would negate the London lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 1.1190 session low exposes the 1.1185 swing low from yesterday's NY session
Only a reclaim of the 1.1208 lower high and the 1.1211 Asian high would restore the overnight upswing
US CPI at 12:30 GMT (core f/c 0.2% MoM / 2.5% YoY) is likely to override this structure; Fed's Bowman at 14:55 GMT is a secondary risk
09:46 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs through London · RSI 36 · price 1.11916
LH/LL chain from the 1.1211 Asian high; Asian range broken lower.
Rejection at the 1.1211 Asian high gave way to a London sequence of lower highs and lower lows. Price lost the 1.1200 round number and the Asian low near 1.1197 to print a session low at 1.1191, as the two-day USD corrective dip stalls ahead of US CPI. RSI(14) near 36 is soft but not stretched; the prior NY low at 1.1185 is the next reference below.
Support: 1.11914, 1.1185
Resistance: 1.1200, 1.12044, 1.12111
What it said to watch
US CPI at 12:30 GMT (core f/c 0.2% MoM) could materially shift this read
M15 close back above the 1.1200 round number and the lower highs line negates the London downtrend
Break of the 1.1204 prior high (yesterday's NY peak and the latest London lower high) reopens the 1.1211 Asian high
Failure to hold the 1.1191 session low exposes the 1.1185 prior NY low
Bowman remarks (09:40 GMT) may add intraday USD noise
09:31 UTC
Intraday down-leg, lower highs since Asia · RSI 40 · price 1.11959
Asian range broken lower at London open; lower-high chain from 1.1211.
London open broke the 1.1198 asian low and printed a 1.1193 london low, extending a lower-high chain off the 1.1211 asia high (latest lower high 1.1206). Price is holding near the 61.8% fib of the 1.1185 swing low to 1.1211 move. The USD's two-day dip has stalled ahead of US CPI.
Support: 1.11932, 1.11849
Resistance: 1.1198, 1.12062, 1.12111
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.1198 asian low negates the range break
Failure to hold the 1.1193 london low exposes the 1.1185 swing low
Break above the lower highs trendline and 1.1206 reopens the 1.1211 asia high
Fed's Bowman (09:40 GMT) and US CPI (12:30 GMT) could materially shift this read
09:16 UTC
Intraday downtrend since London open · RSI 37 · price 1.11948
Lower highs from Asian high; Asian range low broken.
London has slipped below the Asian range low at 1.1197 after a lower-high sequence from the 1.1211 Asian high, the latest lower high at 1.1206, with RSI(14) at 37. The USD's corrective dip has stalled ahead of US CPI. Yesterday's NY lows at 1.1185 are the next shelf below.
Support: 1.1185, 1.1175
Resistance: 1.1197, 1.1206, 1.1211
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 1.1197 asian low would turn the break into a false break
Failure to hold the 1.1185 ny lows exposes the 24h low at 1.1175
A close above the 1.1206 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline
Escrivá at 09:20 UTC, Bowman at 09:40 GMT and US CPI at 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read
09:01 UTC
Intraday range, London fading the Asian advance · RSI 40 · price 1.11967
Lower highs and lower lows since London open, testing the base of the Asian range.
London opened with a rejection at the 1.1211 Asian high. It has since printed a chain of lower highs, capped at 1.1206, and lower lows, retracing almost all of Asia's 17-pip advance back to the 1.1194 swing low. The softer-USD drift that lifted the pair overnight has stalled into US CPI, with RSI(14) near 40 and ATR(14) under 5 pips.
Support: 1.1194, 1.1185
Resistance: 1.1206, 1.1211, 1.1220
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1194 swing low exposes the 1.1185 NY range low
Reclaim of the 1.1206 lower high breaks the London lower-high sequence
US CPI at 12:30 GMT (core f/c 0.2% m/m) can materially shift this read; a soft print that clears the 1.1211 Asian high brings the 1.1220 upper cap into view
London false break below the Asian range, back inside 1.1197–1.1211.
Early London dipped below the 1.1201 Asian range floor to a 1.1197 london low, which coincides with the 38.2% retracement of the 1.1175–1.1211 advance, then reclaimed it. Price is chopping just under both EMAs with the asia high at 1.1211 capping. The overnight grind higher tracked the softer USD after Williams' remarks, and the rising lows line is intact into US CPI.
Support: 1.1197, 1.1185
Resistance: 1.1211, 1.1220
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1197 london low breaks the rising lows line and exposes the 1.1185 ny swing low
Close above the 1.1211 asia high reopens the 1.1220 res flagged in the macro digest
US September CPI at 12:30 GMT (core f/c 0.2% m/m) could materially shift this read
Bowman at 09:40 GMT is the first USD-side risk ahead of the CPI release
08:31 UTC
Intraday up-leg stalled, chopping under the session high · RSI 46 · price 1.12042
Lower highs from 1.1211 above a flat 1.1197 floor; London range compressing.
A USD-led Asian drift topped at the 1.1211 asian high, and the London open saw a sharp rejection. Price dipped to the 1.1197 london low, a brief false break of the Asian range low that held the 38.2% fib of the 1.1175 prior low to 1.1211 advance. EUR/USD now chops near 1.1204 under a 1.1208 lower high, with RSI(14) at 46 and price pinned at EMA20/50.
Support: 1.1197, 1.1185, 1.1175
Resistance: 1.1208, 1.1211, 1.1220
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1197 london low breaks the 38.2% fib and exposes the 1.1185 ny swing low, then the 1.1175 prior low
Close above the 1.1208 lower high and the descending trendline puts the 1.1211 asian high back in play; clearing it brings the 1.1220 trend pivot into view
Lagarde (08:30 UTC) and US CPI at 12:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% MoM) could materially shift this read
Asian range broken lower at London open; lower high at 1.1208 below the 1.1211 Asian high.
Three rejections at the 1.1211 Asian high gave way to a London-open drop through the 1.1200 round number, with a lower high at 1.1208 since. Price has retraced about 80% of the Asia rally from the 1.1194 swing low; RSI(14) is near 36 and price sits under both EMAs as the USD steadies into Lagarde and US CPI.
Support: 1.1194, 1.1185
Resistance: 1.1200, 1.1208, 1.1211
What it said to watch
Lagarde at 08:30 UTC could materially shift this read
US Sep CPI at 12:30 GMT (core f/c 0.2% MoM) is the main volatility event for the session
M15 close back above the 1.1200 round number would negate the Asian range break
Failure to hold the 1.1194 swing low exposes the 1.1185 NY low from yesterday
A move back through the 1.1208 lower high reopens the 1.1211 Asian high
08:01 UTC
Sideways, pulling back from Asian high · RSI 43 · price 1.12037
Tight 1.1200–1.1211 range; Asian high capped, London-open dip held 1.1200.
Asia ground up from the 1.1194 rollover low but was rejected five times at the 1.1211 Asian high. The London open flushed to 1.1200, the London low and a 61.8% retrace of the Asian rally, where the round number held. Price now sits mid-range at 1.1204 into Lagarde, with the USD correction (DXY ~102.10) the backdrop ahead of US CPI.
Support: 1.1200, 1.1185
Resistance: 1.1211, 1.1220
What it said to watch
Lagarde at 08:30 UTC could break the 1.1200–1.1211 range
Close above the 1.1211 Asian high opens the UOB level at 1.1220
Loss of the 1.1200 London low exposes yesterday's NY low near 1.1185
US Sep CPI at 12:30 GMT (core f/c 0.2% m/m) is the main volatility event for this read
07:46 UTC
Uptrend from 1.1175, stalling below the Asian high · RSI 46 · price 1.1206
Tight 1.1200–1.1211 band after a rally from 1.1175. London open was rejected at the Asian high..
London open was rejected on a fourth test of the 1.1211 asian high and dropped to the 1.1200 round number, where buyers stepped in and lifted price back to 1.1206. The leg up from yesterday's 1.1175 low, driven by a softer USD and a patient Lagarde overnight, has flattened into a 1.1200–1.1211 band. RSI(14) is neutral near 46 and price sits just under EMA20.
Support: 1.1200, 1.1194
Resistance: 1.1211, 1.1220
What it said to watch
Lagarde at 08:30 UTC could break the 1.1200–1.1211 band. An M15 close above the 1.1211 asian high puts the 1.1220 key res in play.
Failure to hold the 1.1200 round number opens a deeper fib retracement of the 1.1175–1.1211 leg toward the 1.1194 asian low.
US CPI at 12:30 GMT (core f/c 0.2% m/m) could materially shift this read.
07:31 UTC
Overnight grind higher, rolling over at London open · RSI 39 · price 1.12011
False break of Asian high, rising support line breached.
London open briefly topped the Asian range at the 1.1211 session high, then dropped 11 pips in one bar to the 1.1200 round number. That move broke the overnight rising support line and left price on the 61.8% of the Asia leg fib, below both EMAs with RSI(14) near 39. The EUR bounce from the digest stalled under Tuesday's 1.1204 prior high ahead of Lagarde and US CPI.
Support: 1.1200, 1.1194, 1.11849
Resistance: 1.12042, 1.12111, 1.1220
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1200 round number and the 1.1194 asian low breaks the overnight higher-low chain
Recovery above the 1.1204 prior high and the 1.1211 session high negates the false break
Lagarde at 08:30 UTC could shift this read; a hawkish lean points toward the 1.1220 key barrier
US CPI at 12:30 GMT, with core m/m vs 0.2% as the swing number; a hot core reopens the Tuesday ny low at 1.1185
07:16 UTC
Intraday higher lows, stalling at range top · RSI 44 · price 1.12054
Tight 1.1202–1.1211 range capped at the range top, above yesterday's NY high.
London opens with EURUSD rejected again at the 1.1211 range top, its fifth failed probe since mid-Asia, and the bar is drifting back toward yesterday's NY prior high at 1.1204 with the 1.1202 swing low just below. The softer-USD bounce has held a chain of higher lows off yesterday's 1.1175 London low, but range compression is tight ahead of US CPI.
Support: 1.12042, 1.12017, 1.1194
Resistance: 1.12111, 1.1222
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1211 range top opens 1.1222 key res, the level flagged in the USD digest
Failure to hold the 1.1202 swing low breaks the higher-lows trendline and exposes the 1.1194 asian low
Lagarde at 08:30 UTC and US Sept CPI at 12:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% MoM) could materially shift this read
Asia higher lows; London open retesting the Asian high.
With the USD correcting, the Asia session lifted EUR/USD from the 1.1198 Asian low through yesterday's 1.1204 high. The 06:00 UTC dip held a higher swing low at 1.1202 on the rising trendline, and price is now back at the 1.1211 Asian high early in London. RSI(14) is near 56 and ATR(14) is below 3 pips, so the market is compressed ahead of Lagarde and US CPI.
Support: 1.1202, 1.1198
Resistance: 1.1211, 1.1220
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1211 Asian high opens the 1.1220 round number; a rejection there leaves a flat top in place
Break of the 1.1202 swing low and the rising trendline ends the Asia higher-low sequence, exposing the 1.1198 Asian low
Euro area HICP (07:00 UTC) and Lagarde (08:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
US Sept CPI at 12:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% m/m) is the main event risk for the range
06:46 UTC
Uptrend, stalling below Asian high · RSI 43 · price 1.12062
Higher lows off 1.1175, Asia capped at 1.1211 with lower highs since.
Asia extended Tuesday's USD-led recovery to a 1.1211 Asian high. Price was capped there three times and has printed lower highs since. The pullback to the 1.1202 swing low held near the 23.6% retrace and above the 1.1197 Asian base, leaving price just under EMA20 ahead of London open with RSI(14) near 43.
Support: 1.12017, 1.1197, 1.11861
Resistance: 1.12108, 1.1250
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1211 Asian high breaks the lower-highs line and opens the path toward 1.1250 fair value
Failure to hold the 1.1202 swing low exposes the 1.1197 Asian base and 38.2% retrace
Loss of the Asian base brings yesterday's 1.1186 NY low into play
HICP at 07:00 UTC and Lagarde at 08:30 UTC could shift the London read
US CPI at 12:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% m/m) could materially reset this structure
06:31 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling below asian high · RSI 50 · price 1.12058
Lower highs off 1.1211, retesting prior high.
The USD-led bounce carried price through the 1.1204 prior high during Asia. Price was rejected twice at the 1.1211 asian high, and a lower highs sequence has since pulled it back to retest that prior high, with the 06:00 UTC pullback low at 1.1202 sitting near the 61.8% of the Asian leg. Into London open, RSI(14) is neutral near 50, price is pinned at EMA20 and ATR(14) is about 2.5 pips.
Support: 1.12042, 1.12017, 1.11953
Resistance: 1.12079, 1.12108
What it said to watch
HICP at 07:00 UTC and Lagarde at 08:30 UTC land in the first London hours and could break the Asian range
Failure to hold the 1.1202 pullback low turns the prior high retest into a failed breakout and exposes the 1.1195 asian low
An M15 close above the lower highs line and the 1.1211 asian high resumes the Asian-session advance
US Sept CPI at 12:30 UTC is the main catalyst and could materially shift this read
Tight 1.1205–1.1211 band near the Asian high, lower highs since 03:00 UTC.
A softer USD carried Asia from the 1.1194 asian low to a 1.1211 asian high, clearing Tuesday's NY high at 1.1204. Since 03:00 UTC price has compressed under 1.1211 with lower highs into the London open. RSI(14) is near 47 and price sits under EMA20, while the range low at 1.1204 lines up with the 38.2% fib of the Asian advance.
Support: 1.12045, 1.1200, 1.1194
Resistance: 1.12108, 1.1250
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 1.1204 range low exposes the 1.1200 round number, which is also the 61.8% fib, then the 1.1194 asian low.
A break above the 1.1211 asian high invalidates the lower-highs read and leaves the 1.1250 fair value as the next upside reference.
EZ HICP at 07:00 UTC and Lagarde at 08:30 UTC could shift this read; US CPI at 12:30 UTC is the session's key catalyst.
Higher lows from 1.1194 into a flat 1.1211 top; shallow pullback late in Asia.
The Asia session climbed from the 1.1194 swing low and cleared yesterday's NY prior high at 1.1204 as the USD correction extended. Sellers rejected the 1.1211 Asian high three times, and price is now drifting back toward the 38.2% fib near 1.1204, below EMA20, with RSI(14) neutral at 52.
Support: 1.1204, 1.1194
Resistance: 1.1211, 1.1250
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1211 Asian high breaks the flat top and puts the 1.1250 fair value reference in view
Failure to hold the 1.1204 prior high turns the Asia breakout into a false break, with the 1.1194 swing low exposed
EZ HICP at 07:00 UTC and Lagarde at 08:30 UTC around London open could break the Asian range
US Sept CPI at 12:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% MoM) is the key catalyst for the USD correction
05:31 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling at the Asia high · RSI 57 · price 1.12078
Asian higher-low chain broke Tuesday's 1.1204 prior high; tight 1.1205–1.1211 range under the session high.
Asia extended Tuesday's USD-led bounce through the 1.1204 prior high and has capped at the 1.1211 Asia high for three hours. With London open about 1h45m away, price is holding above EMA20 in a 1.1205–1.1211 range. The asia pivot at 1.1205 has held on dips, and RSI(14) sits neutral near 57.
Support: 1.12055, 1.1204, 1.1194
Resistance: 1.1211, 1.1250
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1205 asia pivot exposes the 1.1204 prior high, which lines up with the fib 38.2 of the Asia leg
Break and hold above the 1.1211 asia high opens room toward the 1.1250 fair value reference
Loss of the 1.1194 asia low undoes the Asian higher-low sequence and the rising line
HICP at 07:00 UTC, Lagarde at 08:30 UTC and US CPI at 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read
Asia HH/HL chain cleared prior high; flat top at 1.1211.
Asia extended Tuesday's USD-driven recovery off the 1.1195 asian low, clearing Tuesday's 1.1204 prior high. Price then capped three times at the 1.1211 asian high. Into London open the pair coils just under that flat top, sitting on the rising Asia trendline with the 1.1205 swing low beneath; RSI(14) ~60, ATR(14) ~2.5 pips.
Support: 1.12054, 1.12042, 1.11953
Resistance: 1.12108, 1.1250
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1211 asian high opens the path toward the 1.1250 fair value reference
Loss of the 1.1205 swing low and the 1.1204 prior high turns the Asia breakout into a false break
Close below the rising Asia trendline breaks the HL chain
HICP at 07:00 UTC and Lagarde at 08:30 UTC could shift the read in early London
US CPI at 12:30 UTC is the main catalyst and could materially shift this read
05:01 UTC
Grinding higher, stalling at session high · RSI 64 · price 1.12092
Asia broke above prior NY high, now capped by equal highs at 1.1211.
Asia session cleared the ny high at 1.1204 on the broad USD pullback and climbed to a 1.1211 asia high. That high has seen four rejections so far. The dip held the 1.1205 pullback low and the rising trendline. RSI(14) is near 64 and ATR is about 2.6 pips, with late-Asia ranges compressing ahead of London open.
Support: 1.12054, 1.12042, 1.1194
Resistance: 1.12108
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1211 asia high extends the Asian breakout
Loss of the 1.1205 pullback low and the rising trendline brings a retest of the 1.1204 ny high into play; below that sits the 1.1194 rollover low
HICP at 07:00 UTC, Lagarde at 08:30 UTC and US CPI at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
04:46 UTC
Uptrend, stalling at session high · RSI 66 · price 1.12096
HH/HL chain through Asia, tight range under 1.1211.
Late Asia extended the USD-led bounce from the 1.1194 asian low, clearing yesterday's NY prior high at 1.1204 and stalling at the 1.1211 session high after three touches. The pullback held the 1.1205 swing low above the asia rising line, with RSI(14) near 66 and ATR(14) about 2.7 pips ahead of the London open.
Support: 1.12054, 1.12042, 1.1194
Resistance: 1.12108, 1.1250
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1211 session high opens the path toward the 1.1250 fair value cited in the digest
Loss of the 1.1205 swing low and the asia rising line exposes the 1.1204 prior high, which sits on the 38.2% of the asia leg fib
Close back below the 1.1204 prior high turns the Asia breakout into a false break, with the 1.1194 asian low next
Lagarde at 08:30 UTC and Bowman at 09:40 GMT could shift this read before US CPI at 12:30 GMT, the main catalyst
Asia session extended the dollar pullback, building a rising trendline of higher lows from the 1.1194 rollover low and clearing Tuesday's NY prior high at 1.1204. Price has stalled under the 1.12108 Asian high for the past hour, with the 03:45 UTC swing low at 1.12054 holding. RSI(14) is in the mid-60s and ATR is under 3 pips.
Support: 1.12054, 1.12042, 1.1194
Resistance: 1.12108, 1.1250
What it said to watch
A close above the 1.12108 Asian high opens the path toward Scotiabank's 1.1250 fair value reference
A break below the 1.12054 swing low and the rising trendline puts the 1.1204 prior high back in play as support
Losing 1.1204 shifts the read back into Tuesday's range, with the 1.1194 rollover low next
London open in ~3h and Lagarde at 08:30 UTC could reset the Asian range
US CPI at 12:30 GMT is the main risk to this structure; a core beat would challenge the dollar-pullback read
04:16 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pausing below Asian high · RSI 59 · price 1.1207
Higher highs and higher lows off the 1.1197 Asian low; shallow pullback toward the broken prior high.
Late in the Asia session, EUR/USD climbed through yesterday's NY prior high at 1.1204 and printed an Asian high of 1.1211 as the dollar extended its pre-CPI pullback. Price has eased back to the 38.2% retrace of the Asian leg near 1.1205, with RSI(14) cooling to 59 and ATR(14) compressed near 3 pips ahead of London open.
Support: 1.1204, 1.1197, 1.1185
Resistance: 1.1211, 1.1250
What it said to watch
Hold of the 1.1204 prior high keeps the Asian breakout intact; an M15 close back below it exposes the 1.1197 Asian low
Loss of the 1.1185 swing low, yesterday's NY pivot, would undo the higher-low sequence
M15 close above the 1.1211 Asian high puts the 1.1250 fair value reference in view
US CPI at 12:30 GMT, with Bowman at 09:40 GMT, could materially shift this read; a core beat reverses the dollar pullback
HL chain since London open; Asia cleared the NY high.
Asia session pushed through the 1.1204 NY high and printed a 1.1211 asian high, extending a higher-low sequence (1.1175 → 1.1185 swing low area → 1.1194) that dates from London open. The move tracks the USD pullback on softer Treasury yields ahead of CPI, with RSI(14) at 63 and the last two bars stalling just under the asian high.
Support: 1.12042, 1.1194, 1.11849
Resistance: 1.12108, 1.1250
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.1204 ny high, and then the rising trendline, would mark a false break of the NY high
Failure to hold the 1.1194 swing low breaks the higher-low chain; the 1.1185 ny low is next below
Clearance of the 1.1211 asian high leaves the 1.1250 fair value reference as the next marked level
Lagarde at 08:30 UTC and US CPI at 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read
03:46 UTC
Uptrend, low-range grind · RSI 73 · price 1.12096
HH/HL chain through Asia, prior-day high broken.
Late Asia session. Price has climbed in a steady HH/HL chain from the 1.1194 asian low, cleared yesterday's NY prior high at 1.1204 and printed a session high at 1.1211 as the softer USD tone carried over. RSI(14) sits near 73 with ATR only about 2.6 pips, so the advance is thin and slow heading into London open, with the 1.1220 key level from the macro digest just overhead.
Support: 1.12042, 1.1200, 1.1194
Resistance: 1.12107, 1.1220
What it said to watch
An M15 close back below the prior high at 1.1204, which is also the 38.2% fib of the Asia leg, would break the HL chain
A close below the Asia trendline, with price currently riding it, would show the grind stalling
Loss of the 1.1200 round number and then the 1.1194 asian low would negate the whole Asia advance
An M15 close above the 1.1220 key level would mark a break of the digest's line in the sand
Euro-area HICP at 07:00 UTC and Lagarde at 08:30 UTC are near-term event risks
US CPI at 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain from 1.1194 rollover low; Asia broke above prior NY high.
Late Asia session has lifted through yesterday's NY prior high at 1.1204 to a session high of 1.1211, building higher lows off the 1.1194 rollover low as the USD softens ahead of CPI. RSI(14) at 72 is warm but not stretched. Bars are tight at ~3 pips ATR, and major resistance at 1.1220 sits 10 pips above.
Support: 1.1204, 1.1194, 1.1185
Resistance: 1.1211, 1.1220, 1.1250
What it said to watch
US CPI at 12:30 GMT is the main catalyst; core at 0.3% or above vs 0.2% f/c could reverse the Asia gains
M15 close back below the 1.1204 prior high (38.2% fib) would mark the Asia breakout as a false break
Rejection at the 1.1220 major res keeps the move a pre-CPI drift; a close above opens 1.1250 fair value
Loss of the 1.1194 rollover low breaks the HH/HL chain and exposes the 1.1185 ny low
Lagarde at 08:30 UTC during London hours could shift the read
03:16 UTC
Intraday uptrend, Asia grinding to new highs · RSI 75 · price 1.12095
HH/HL chain intact; Asia broke and is holding above the prior NY high.
Asia cleared the NY session prior high at 1.1204 and has stair-stepped to a day high near 1.1210. That extends the higher-low sequence from the 1.1185 NY low and the 1.1194 swing low, with the softer USD tone doing the work. RSI(14) near 75 is warm, and a 2.8-pip ATR reflects thin Asian ranges; Lagarde's 02:10 UTC remarks did not disturb the drift.
Support: 1.1204, 1.1194, 1.1185
Resistance: 1.1210, 1.1220
What it said to watch
Close back below the 1.1204 prior high (38.2% of the Asia leg) turns the breakout into a false break
Loss of the 1.1194 swing low and the rising support line breaks the HH/HL chain; 1.1185 NY low comes next
Acceptance above the 1.1210 day high puts the 1.1220 uob pivot in play
07:00 UTC HICP and Lagarde again at 08:30 UTC could reset the London open range; US CPI at 12:30 UTC is the larger swing risk
03:01 UTC
Uptrend, grinding higher in thin Asia trade · RSI 70 · price 1.12077
Higher-high / higher-low chain from 1.1170; NY high broken in Asia.
Asia session pushed through yesterday's NY high at 1.1204 to a session high at 1.1208, extending the rising lows from London's 1.1175 base as USD softness persists into CPI. The NY high is now the first retest level. RSI(14) sits near 70 and ATR is under 3 pips in a slow tape.
Support: 1.1204, 1.11977, 1.1194
Resistance: 1.12078, 1.1220
What it said to watch
Failure back below the ny high at 1.1204 and the asian low at 1.1198 would mark the Asia breakout as a false break
Close below the 1.1194 swing low breaks the rising lows chain
1.1220 uob pivot is the next resistance above the session high
Euro-area HICP at 07:00 UTC and Lagarde at 08:30 UTC could shift this read; US CPI at 12:30 UTC is the larger risk
02:46 UTC
Intraday uptrend, grinding higher in Asia · RSI 68 · price 1.12054
Higher lows since the late-NY low; Asia broke above yesterday's high.
Asia session cleared yesterday's NY prior high at 1.1204 and printed a session high at 1.1208 around Lagarde's 02:10 UTC remarks, extending the higher-low chain off the 1.1194 late-NY low on a softer USD. Price is holding just above the old high on a thin 3-pip ATR, with RSI(14) firm near 68 but not stretched.
Support: 1.12042, 1.11977, 1.1194
Resistance: 1.12078, 1.1222
What it said to watch
M15 close back below 1.1204 prior high would mark the Asia push as a false break
Loss of the 1.1198 asian low breaks the rising support from the late-NY low
Clearance of the 1.1208 session high exposes the 1.1220 pivot flagged as downtrend resistance
HICP at 07:00 UTC and Lagarde at 08:30 UTC could shift this read into London; US CPI at 12:30 UTC is the bigger risk later
02:31 UTC
Uptrend, Asia grinding higher · RSI 69 · price 1.1205
Higher lows since NY; Asia broke prior high.
Mid-Asia session, price has edged through yesterday's NY prior high at 1.1204 to an asian high at 1.1207, extending the rising support of higher lows from the 1.1185 NY dip and the 1.1194 swing low. The move rides softer USD after Williams' remarks, but ranges are thin with ATR near 3 pips and RSI(14) at 69, not stretched.
Support: 1.1204, 1.1198, 1.1194
Resistance: 1.1207, 1.1220
What it said to watch
A close back below the 1.1204 prior high turns the break into a false break
Loss of the 1.1198 asian low and the 1.1194 swing low breaks the rising support sequence
1.1220 UOB pivot is the next upside reference if the asian high gives way
Lagarde at 08:30 UTC and the 07:00 UTC HICP print could shift the read before US CPI at 12:30 UTC
02:16 UTC
Uptrend, grinding higher in thin Asia trade · RSI 74 · price 1.12061
Higher lows since NY low, fresh break above prior high.
Asia session pushed through yesterday's prior high at 1.1204 to a session high of 1.1207, extending the rising lows off the 1.1185 NY low as USD softness into CPI persists. RSI(14) is around 74 and ATR is tight at about 2.7 pips. The asian low at 1.1198 is the base of the overnight advance.
Support: 1.12042, 1.11977, 1.11849
Resistance: 1.12074, 1.1222
What it said to watch
Lagarde speaking from 02:10 UTC could materially shift this read in the current bar
M15 close back below the 1.1204 prior high turns the breakout into a false break
Loss of the 1.1198 asian low breaks the rising lows trendline
Close above the 1.1207 session high opens the path toward the 1.1220 uob pivot
US CPI at 12:30 UTC is the main volatility risk for the day
02:01 UTC
Uptrend, compressing near highs · RSI 68 · price 1.12036
Higher lows since London low; tight Asian range under session high.
Higher-low chain from the 1.1175 London low through the 1.1185 NY low and 1.1195 swing low remains intact, with the leg driven by softer USD into CPI. Asia session is compressing on a 1.1201 micro base after a wick to the 1.12067 session high failed to hold above the prior NY high near 1.1204; RSI(14) near 68.
Support: 1.1201, 1.1195, 1.11849
Resistance: 1.12067, 1.1220
What it said to watch
Lagarde at 02:10 UTC could break the tight Asian range
M15 close above the 1.12067 session high opens the 1.1220 UOB pivot
Loss of the 1.1201 micro base and rising lows line exposes the 1.1195 swing low at the 38.2% fib
Break below the 1.1185 NY low ends the higher-low chain
US CPI at 12:30 UTC is the main risk to this structure
Higher lows since London; pressing 1.1204 range top.
Asia session lifted off the 1.1194 Asian low and is retesting the 1.1204 prior high, which capped price in the NY session and again into the close. Higher lows at 1.1175, 1.1185 (NY low) and 1.1194 hold a rising trendline near 1.1201, with the move driven by a softer USD into CPI. RSI(14) ~69, ATR ~2 pips as Asian ranges compress.
Support: 1.1201, 1.1194, 1.1185
Resistance: 1.12042, 1.1220
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1204 prior high breaks the range top and exposes the 1.1220 UOB pivot
Break of the rising trendline near 1.1201 and the 1.1194 Asian low ends the higher-low chain, opening the 1.1185 NY low
Lagarde speaks at 02:10 UTC, about 25 minutes out, and could shift this read; US CPI at 12:30 UTC is the larger risk
The USD-led bounce off the London open, as DXY eased, has stalled at the 24h high near 1.1204, now tested for a third time in a tight Asian range. Higher lows from the 1.1185 NY low through the 1.1194 rollover dip keep rising support intact beneath the Asian low at 1.1197.
Support: 1.1197, 1.1185
Resistance: 1.1204, 1.1220
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1204 24h high opens the path to the 1.1220 uob pivot
Break of the 1.1197 asian low and the rising support line exposes the 1.1185 ny low
Lagarde at 02:10 UTC could move price out of the Asian range
US CPI at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
01:16 UTC
Grinding higher, pressing range top · RSI 66 · price 1.12033
Higher lows in Asia under a flat 1.1204 cap.
The Asia session is retesting the 1.1204 prior high, yesterday's NY peak that also capped late NY at 1.1203, after higher lows off the 1.1194 Asian low. The grind tracks the softer-USD bounce flagged in the digest. RSI(14) sits near 66 and ATR is compressed around 2 pips ahead of Lagarde.
Support: 1.1194, 1.1185
Resistance: 1.1204, 1.1220
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1204 prior high breaks the range top and opens UOB resistance at 1.1220
Failure to hold the 1.1194 Asian low breaks the rising support and returns focus to the 1.1185 NY lows
Lagarde at 02:10 UTC (HIGH) could materially shift this read, and compressed ATR leaves room for expansion
01:01 UTC
Uptrend, Asia grind into prior highs · RSI 67 · price 1.12037
Higher lows since rollover, capped at 1.1203–1.1204 three times.
Asia session is grinding higher off the 1.1194 rollover low along a rising line and is now pressing the 1.1204 NY high, a level that capped price twice yesterday. RSI(14) is near 67 and ATR is just over 2 pips. Yesterday's softer-USD bounce carried the pair from 1.1159 through London and NY, and the 1.1185 NY low sits near the 50% of the London-NY fib.
Support: 1.1194, 1.1185, 1.11748
Resistance: 1.12042, 1.1220
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1204 NY high clears the triple cap; UOB 1.1220 is the next reference
A break of the Asia rising line and the 1.1194 rollover low reopens the 1.1185 NY low
Loss of the 1.1175 London low negates the day's higher-low sequence
Lagarde at 02:10 UTC (05:10 broker) could expand the thin Asian range; US CPI at 12:30 UTC is the larger event
00:46 UTC
Uptrend, compressing under day high · RSI 58 · price 1.12019
Higher lows since London, flat cap at 1.1203–1.1204.
The USD-led bounce that ran through Tuesday's London and NY sessions has carried into Wednesday's Asia session, with higher lows at the 1.1175 London low, 1.1185 NY low and 1.1194 rollover low. Price is pressing the 1.1204 day high for a third time on a thin 2.7-pip ATR ahead of Lagarde, and RSI(14) at 58 is not stretched.
Support: 1.1194, 1.11849, 1.11748
Resistance: 1.12042, 1.1220
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1204 day high clears the triple-tested cap and brings the 1.1220 UOB level into view
Loss of the 1.1194 rollover low and the higher-lows trendline breaks the higher-low chain, exposing the 1.1185 NY low
A break below the 1.1175 London low would unwind Tuesday's London rally
Lagarde at 02:10 UTC (about 1.5h out) could materially shift this read; Spain HICP at 07:00 UTC and US CPI at 12:30 UTC follow
London broke above Monday's Asian range (1.1154–1.1180) and NY tagged a 1.1204 ny high before stalling, as a softer USD into CPI lifted the pair. Higher lows at 1.1175, 1.1185 (ny low) and 1.1194 now press price into that cap early in the Asia session, just above the 1.1200 round number. RSI(14) is near 68 and ATR(14) about 2.6 pips in thin trade.
Support: 1.1200, 1.1194, 1.11849
Resistance: 1.12042, 1.1220
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1204 ny high breaks the cap and opens the 1.1220 res zone
Loss of the 1.1200 round number and the 1.1194 higher low breaks the higher-lows trendline
A move below the 1.1185 ny low ends the higher-low chain
Lagarde at 02:10 UTC could break the Asian range early
US CPI at 12:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% m/m) is the main catalyst for a range break
Higher lows from Asia through NY, highs capped 1.1203–1.1204.
EUR/USD climbed from the 1.1154 Asian low through London and NY as the dollar eased into US CPI, printing a session high at 1.1204 that capped a second test at 1.1203 late in NY. Rising lows at the 1.1175 london low, 1.1185 ny low (38.2% of the day's rally fib) and 1.1194 late ny low are intact; price is back near 1.1200 in thin post-NY trade, RSI(14) ~57.
Support: 1.1194, 1.11849, 1.11748
Resistance: 1.12042, 1.1220
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1204 session high opens the 1.1220 resistance
Break of the 1.1194 late ny low tests the rising lows trendline; loss of the 1.1185 ny low breaks the higher-low chain
Lagarde at 02:10 UTC during the Asia session could shift this read
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the main catalyst for a range break