Broad multi-quarter range, price in lower half below EMA50.
The regime rolled from the 2025 trend advance into a broad multi-quarter range after January's spike to the 1.2083 2026 high was rejected, and successive rallies have since topped lower, most recently at the 1.1711 swing high. The last weekly bar closed on its low at 1.1469, with price under a flattening W1 EMA(50) at 1.1590 as the post-NFP dollar repricing was partly clawed back by safe-haven demand. RSI(14) at 44 is mid-range and carries no information at this scale; the 1.1324 yearly low and 1.1410 prior low remain the structural floor of the range.
Support: 1.1410, 1.1324
Resistance: 1.1590, 1.1711, 1.2083
What it said to watch
Weekly close below the 1.1410 prior low would expose the 1.1324 yearly low and a lower range low
Reclaim of the 1.1590 ema50 is required to neutralise the lower-high sequence
Rejection again near the 1.1711 swing high keeps the range read intact
US CPI is the dominant USD repricing catalyst and can define the coming weekly close
Lower highs since the Q1 2026 peak, range floor at 1.1324.
Regime shifted from the 2025 uptrend into a two-quarter range after the Q1 2026 rejection at the 1.2083 2026 high, with price now compressed between the 1.1324 yearly low and the 1.1600 psych level. The latest weekly bar closed at 1.1469 after a full reversal from the 1.1711 swing high, leaving price under both the W1 EMA20 and the EMA50 near 1.158 — macro structure is no longer trend-supportive. The whole leg is a USD-repricing story: the -23K NFP miss drove the pop toward 1.1600 that has since been given back, and RSI at 44 sits mid-range, offering no extreme at this timeframe.
Support: 1.1418, 1.1324
Resistance: 1.1600, 1.1711, 1.2083
What it said to watch
Weekly close below the 1.1418 swing low puts the 1.1324 yearly low back in play and confirms a lower low
A weekly close back above 1.1600 psych and the W1 EMA50 would neutralise the lower-highs sequence
US CPI is the dominant catalyst for the next weekly bar and could reset the range read