19:02 UTC
Range-bound, lower highs since the 1.2083 peak · RSI 45 · price 1.14667
Broad 1.1324-1.1711 range, price back at the lower half after rejection below ema50.
The multi-quarter advance that ran from 1.0733 into the 1.2083 high stalled there and has since rolled into a rounded top, leaving a broad range between the 1.1324 swing low and the 1.1711 prior high — a regime of lower highs rather than a clean trend. Price closed the week at 1.1467 after a 143-pip down bar, back below both the 1.1550 range cap and the W1 ema50 near 1.1611, with Fed repricing out-hawking an already-priced hawkish ECB doing the work on the dollar leg. RSI(14) near 45 is mid-range and adds nothing at this scale; the structural question is whether the weekly low at 1.1455 and the 1.1400 psych area hold as the range floor.
Support: 1.1455, 1.1400, 1.1324
Resistance: 1.1550, 1.1611, 1.1711
What it said to watch
- Weekly close below 1.1455 and then the 1.1400 psych level would extend the sequence of lower highs toward the 1.1324 swing low
- Reclaiming the 1.1550 range cap and closing back above the ema50 at 1.1611 would neutralise the rounded-top read
- A weekly close above the 1.1711 prior high is required to re-open the upper half of the range
- Fed-vs-ECB rate repricing remains the dominant macro driver for this range; Lagarde remarks and US flash PMIs are the near-term inputs