11:40 UTC
Downtrend within a broad multi-quarter range · RSI 46 · price 1.14777
Lower highs since Q1 high 1.2083, price back at the lower third of the 1.1324–1.2083 range.
EURUSD has been range-bound between 1.1324 and the Q1 high at 1.2083 for the past year, and within that range the sequence of lower highs since late January — 1.2083, then 1.1849, then 1.1711 — defines the prevailing downtrend. Price at 1.1478 sits below both the W1 EMA20 and the W1 EMA50 near 1.1611, so macro structure is on the weaker side of the range, with the renewed hawkish-Fed repricing after the September FOMC and its dot-plot upgrade keeping the dollar the firmer leg. Weekly rejection at 1.1711 has handed control back to the 1.1455 seven-week low, which is the last shelf before the 1.1324 2026 low.
Support: 1.1455, 1.1324, 1.1411
Resistance: 1.1500, 1.1611, 1.1711
What it said to watch
- Weekly close below the 1.1455 seven-week low confirms a lower low and exposes the 1.1411 q1 swing low, then the 1.1324 2026 low
- Reclaiming 1.1500 psych and closing back above the w1 ema50 near 1.1611 would neutralise the lower-high sequence
- Wednesday's euro-area HCOB and US S&P Global flash PMIs are the week's main data risk and could set the next weekly close
- Holding above 1.1455 for several weeks would extend the 1.1324–1.2083 range read rather than the downtrend