19:01 UTC
Corrective downtrend within broad 1.13–1.21 range · RSI 43 · price 1.14118
Lower highs since Jan 2026 peak; price back at the March low in the lower half of the range.
The late-January spike to 1.2083 failed, and EURUSD has since printed lower highs at 1.1849 (April) and 1.1711 (the August high). That shifts the mid-2025 to 2026 1.13–1.21 range into a corrective downtrend confined to its lower half, capped so far by the lower highs trendline. Price is below the ema20 near 1.1525 and the ema50 near 1.1580, which has flattened and started to roll lower. A two-week slide on a hawkish Fed, 10y yields above 5% and elevated oil has returned price to the march low at 1.1411, with the 100wma at 1.1356 and the june low at 1.1324 beneath; RSI at 43 is mid-range, so there is no extreme reading.
Support: 1.1411, 1.1356, 1.1324
Resistance: 1.1525, 1.1580, 1.1711
What it said to watch
- A weekly close below the june low at 1.1324, through the 100wma at 1.1356, confirms a lower low and breaks the range floor
- A recovery above the ema50 near 1.1580 and the 38.2% of the jan-jun decline (~1.1614) would neutralise the downtrend read
- The lower highs trendline and the aug high at 1.1711 define the cap; a weekly close above it ends the lower-high sequence
- Failure to hold the march low at 1.1411 keeps price pinned against the lower range boundary
- US PCE, ADP and NFP next week, plus Brent around $106–108, could materially shift this read