16:27 UTC
Downtrend since the Q1 2026 peak · RSI 43 · price 1.1378
Lower highs from 1.2083, price retesting the June ytd low.
EURUSD has been in a downtrend since the late-January 2026 spike to the 2026 high at 1.2083. Each rally since has stalled lower, at 1.1849 in April and at the aug high of 1.1711. Price now sits below the W1 EMA50 near 1.1600 and is back at the June ytd low around 1.1324, with a hawkish Fed and wider 2y spreads keeping the euro pressured. RSI is mid-range, so there is no extreme to lean on; the read rests on the lower-high sequence and on the descending lower highs trendline.
Support: 1.1324, 1.1065
Resistance: 1.1600, 1.1711, 1.2083
What it said to watch
- Weekly close below the 1.1324 ytd low confirms a fresh lower low and exposes the 1.1065 2025 low
- Recovery back above the w1 ema50 near 1.1600 and the 1.1711 aug high would break the lower-highs sequence
- US PCE and NFP this week, plus Eurozone flash inflation, could materially shift this read
- Break above the 2026 high at 1.2083 would end the downtrend regime entirely