Lower highs and lower lows since Friday's 1.1410 peak; price pinned under EMA(20).
The pair has printed lower highs since Friday's 1.1410 peak, and the lower-highs trendline has capped every bounce since Monday's NY session. Tuesday's London break of the 1.1353 Monday low extended into NY, reaching a 1.1311 week low on broad USD strength from Fed-hike pricing and 5%+ 10Y yields. The dip below the 1.1325 YTD low was reclaimed within two hours, a false break so far. Price now sits just under EMA(20) near 1.1343, with RSI(14) recovering to the low 40s.
Support: 1.1325, 1.1311
Resistance: 1.1343, 1.1353, 1.1378
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 1.1325 YTD low would negate the false break and expose the 1.1311 week low
H1 close above EMA(20) and the lower-highs trendline near 1.1343 puts the 1.1353 Monday low and the 38.2% fib (1.1349) in play
Weekly open at 1.1378 sits near the 61.8% fib of the Friday high–week low drop; a recovery stalling below it keeps the lower-high sequence intact
German HICP (12:00 UTC) and US ADP/core PCE (12:15–12:30 UTC) on Wednesday could materially shift this read
Lower highs since Monday; YTD-low false break reclaimed.
EUR/USD has trended lower since the 1.1378 weekly open gapped under Friday's close. Monday's 1.1391 high capped the pair, and Tuesday's London and NY sessions extended the slide with a lower high at 1.1358, in line with the spread-driven USD bid. A NY-hours flush to the 1.1311 week low briefly broke the 1.1324 ytd low before a 27-pip recovery bar reclaimed it. Price now sits just under EMA(20) near 1.1344, at the 38.2% fib and pressing the descending trendline, with RSI(14) near 45.
Support: 1.1324, 1.1311
Resistance: 1.1358, 1.1378, 1.1410
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 1.1324 ytd low turns Tuesday's false break into a fresh lower-low, exposing the 1.1311 week low
Close above the descending trendline and the 1.1358 lower high opens the 50–61.8% fib zone toward the 1.1378 weekly open
1.1410 prior high, capped twice on Friday, marks the top of this week's structure
Wed euro-area CPI (09:00 UTC) and US ADP/core PCE (12:15–12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
21:02 UTC
Downtrend, late bounce off week low · RSI 46 · price 1.13415
Lower highs and lower lows since Friday; false break of YTD low.
Lower highs since Friday's 1.1410 double peak. The week opened with a gap under Friday's close, and the 1.1378 weekly open capped Monday's London session before both London and NY extended the slide. The USD ignored the JOLTS miss on hawkish Fed repricing. Tuesday's NY session pierced the 1.1324 YTD low to a 1.1311 week low, then snapped back to the 38.2% retracement of the Monday high to Tuesday low slide near 1.1342, a false break that leaves price just under EMA(20) and the lower-highs trendline. RSI(14) has recovered to ~45 from oversold readings at both of Tuesday's lows.
Support: 1.1324, 1.13114
Resistance: 1.1344, 1.13578, 1.13776
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 1.1324 YTD low negates the false break and puts the 1.1311 week low back in play
Holding above EMA(20) and a close through the 1.1358 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline and opens the path to the 1.1378 weekly open
Euro-area inflation and retail prints Wed morning, then US ADP and Core PCE at 12:15–12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Sep 30 month- and quarter-end flows can distort H1 structure around the London fix
Lower highs have stepped down from Friday's 1.1410 peak through the 1.1378 weekly open. Tuesday's selling came in two legs: London cut to the 1.1332 london low, then NY pushed through the 1.1324 ytd low to a 1.1311 week low as broad USD strength on 5.2%+ 10Y yields dominated. The snap back above 1.1324 marks a false break, but the rebound has stalled at the ema20 near 1.1344, which lines up with the 50% retracement of Tuesday's drop, while RSI(14) recovers to the mid-40s from twin oversold readings near 26.
Support: 1.1332, 1.1324, 1.1311
Resistance: 1.1344, 1.1358, 1.1378
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 1.1324 ytd low reinstates the break and puts the 1.1311 week low back in play
Close above the 1.1358 lower high, where EMA(50) also sits, breaks the lower-high sequence and the trendline from Friday
Recovery toward the 1.1378 weekly open would neutralise Tuesday's entire leg lower
Wed euro-area CPI/HICP from 06:00 UTC, then US ADP 12:15 and Core PCE 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs since Friday; false break below YTD low.
EUR/USD has printed lower highs since Friday's 1.1410 peak. The week opened on a gap down at the 1.1378 weekly open, and London hours on Tuesday drove a break through Monday's 1.1353 low as broad USD strength and 10Y yields above 5.2% dominated. The NY session extended the slide to the 1.1311 week low, briefly below the 1.1325 YTD low, before a sharp 18:00 UTC recovery to 1.1341 left a false break under the level. Price now sits just under EMA(20) near 1.1345, with RSI(14) around 43 after the rebound.
Support: 1.1325, 1.13114
Resistance: 1.1345, 1.13578, 1.13776
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 1.1325 ytd low negates the false break and exposes the 1.1311 week low
Acceptance above ema20 near 1.1345 and the 1.1358 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline and opens the path to the 50% retracement of the Friday–Tuesday drop near 1.1361, then the 1.1378 weekly open
Fed's Waller at 19:00 UTC today and Wed ADP/Core PCE at 12:15/12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Wed Eurozone CPI prints from 06:45 UTC are the next EUR-side risk to the structure
Lower highs since Friday; range broken Tuesday, retesting 1.1325 from below.
Lower highs have stacked up since Friday's 1.1410 peak. Tuesday's London open broke Monday's 1.1353 low, and the NY session extended to a 1.1311 day low, through the 1.1324/25 ytd low, as USD rode 10Y yields above 5.2% despite soft JOLTS. Price is now back up testing the ytd low from below, with RSI(14) near 34, the ema20 at 1.1343 declining overhead, and the lower-highs trendline near 1.1349 capping bounces.
Support: 1.13114, 1.1300
Resistance: 1.1325, 1.13432, 1.13776
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 1.1325 ytd low and the ema20 at 1.1343 would turn the break into a false break
Failure to hold the 1.1311 day low exposes the 1.1300 round number
Reclaiming the lower-highs trendline and the 38.2% of the Fri-Tue drop (~1.1349) shifts focus to the weekly open at 1.1378
Fed Williams (18:00 UTC), Waller (19:00 UTC) and ECB Lane tonight could shift this read
US ADP and core PCE from 12:15 UTC tomorrow, plus Sep 30 quarter-end flows, are the next risk to the structure
17:02 UTC
Downtrend, accelerating into NY · RSI 26 · price 1.13139
Lower highs since Friday, YTD low broken.
EUR/USD has printed lower highs since Friday's twin 1.1410 peaks. It gapped under the prior close at the 1.1378 weekly open, then broke Monday's 1.1353 low during Tuesday's London session. The NY-session leg through the 1.1325 ytd low to 1.1311 came on broad USD strength with 10Y yields above 5.2%, leaving price well below EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) oversold near 26.
Support: 1.13114, 1.1300
Resistance: 1.1325, 1.13578, 1.13776
What it said to watch
An H1 close back above the 1.1325 ytd low would mark the break as a false break
The lower-highs trendline near 1.1350 and the 1.1358 lower high cap structure; a close above 1.1358 breaks the sequence
38.2% retrace of the Friday-Tuesday decline sits near 1.1349, aligned with the trendline
Failure to hold the 1.1311 session low exposes the 1.1300 round number
ECB Lane at 18:00 UTC and Fed Williams/Waller speeches tonight; Wed ADP 12:15 and Core PCE 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows below EMA20; Wed–Fri range broken lower.
Since Friday's 1.1410 high, EURUSD has printed lower highs. The week opened on a gap down at the 1.1378 weekly open, and London broke the 1.1353 Monday low on Tuesday for a 1.1332 Tuesday low as broad USD strength shrugged off soft JOLTS. The NY rebound stalled at a 1.1358 lower high, below the 38.2% fib of the Friday-to-Tuesday decline, with the flipped Monday low and EMA(20) near 1.1353 capping, while RSI(14) sits near 32 without reaching oversold.
Support: 1.13322, 1.1324
Resistance: 1.13529, 1.13578, 1.13776
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.1332 tuesday low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.1324 ytd low
Recovery above the 1.1358 lower high and the lower-high trendline breaks the sequence; weekly open 1.1378 sits above
Hold back above the flipped monday low at 1.1353 would signal the break is losing traction
ECB's Lane at 18:00 UTC today, EZ CPI prints Wed morning, and US ADP/PCE Wed 12:15–12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
15:01 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since Monday open · RSI 36 · price 1.13422
Lower highs and lower lows, bounce capped under ema20.
The week opened with a gap down at 1.13776, below Friday's 1.13916 close, and H1 has printed lower highs since. Monday's NY low at 1.13529 gave way in Tuesday's London session to a 1.13322 week low as Lagarde's dovish tilt and US 10Y yields above 5.2% weighed. The London-NY transition bounce stalled at the 1.13578 swing high, below the lower-highs trendline and the ema20 near 1.1355, and price is back around 1.1340 with RSI(14) near 36.
Support: 1.13322, 1.1324
Resistance: 1.13545, 1.13578, 1.13776
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.13578 swing high and the lower-highs trendline breaks the lower-high sequence; the weekly open at 1.13776 sits above
Failure to hold the 1.13322 week low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.1324 ytd low
Holding above ema20 (~1.1355) on a retest would mark the first higher low this week
ECB's Lane at 18:00 UTC and the Fed speaker run into the NY session could materially shift this read
Wednesday's national CPIs, then ADP and PCE at 12:15/12:30 UTC, are the next scheduled risk to the week-low test
Lower highs and lower lows since Friday's 1.1410 double top.
Every session since the Friday high double top at 1.1410 has printed a lower high. The week opened on a gap lower at the 1.1378 weekly open, and price has stayed below EMA(20) and EMA(50) since Monday's NY session. Monday's leg lower ran in NY hours and Tuesday's in the London session, reaching the 1.1332 Tuesday low a few pips above the 1.1324 YTD low; the rebound stalled at the 1.1358 bounce high on the lower-high trendline, short of the 38.2% fib. Broad USD strength on ~5.25% 10Y yields and Fed-hike repricing is the driver, and a 5% HICP print failed to lift EUR.
Support: 1.13322, 1.1324
Resistance: 1.13578, 1.13776, 1.14104
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.1332 Tuesday low and 1.1324 YTD low extends the lower-low sequence
H1 close above the 1.1358 bounce high breaks the lower-high trendline, with the 1.1378 weekly open next overhead
Recovery through the 1.1410 Friday high would negate the double top read
JOLTS and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC, Lane at 18:00 UTC, then Wednesday's EZ CPI prints and US ADP could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since Monday's 1.1391 week high.
EURUSD opened the week on a gap below Friday's close. It has printed lower highs since Monday's 1.1391 top, and each rally has stalled under a lower-highs trendline. The London session drove today's leg to the 1.1332 week low after the Eurozone ESI miss, with Lagarde's dovish tilt and the USD bid on 5.27% 10Y yields adding pressure. The rebound off the week low is retesting the 38.2% fib of the week drop near 1.1355, with price below the ema20 around 1.1360 and RSI(14) recovering to ~38.
Support: 1.1332, 1.1324
Resistance: 1.1355, 1.1360, 1.1378
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.1360 (ema20 and the lower-highs trendline) breaks the lower-high sequence and opens the weekly open at 1.1378
Rejection at the 38.2% fib near 1.1355 keeps the week low at 1.1332 in focus
Failure to hold the 1.1332 week low exposes the 1.1324 ytd low
US JOLTS and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 GMT, plus Fedspeak into 19:00 GMT, could materially shift this read
Wed EZ CPI (06:45/09:00 GMT) and US ADP (12:15 GMT) are the next scheduled risks
Lower highs and lower lows since Monday's week high.
EURUSD has printed lower highs since Monday's 1.1391 week high. The London open on Tuesday extended the leg to a 1.1332 week low as Lagarde's dovish tilt and US 10Y yields at 2007 highs kept EUR heavy, and Spain's CPI beat was ignored. The bounce off the week low is holding under the monday low at 1.1353 with price below EMA(20) and EMA(50), and RSI(14) near 38 shows no bullish divergence.
Support: 1.13322, 1.1324
Resistance: 1.13529, 1.1362, 1.13776
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the monday low at 1.1353 and the ema20 near 1.1362 would test the lower-highs trendline
Failure to hold the week low at 1.1332 brings the 1.1324 ytd low into view; a close beneath it breaks the year's floor
Recovery through the 61.8% fib at 1.1369 and the weekly open at 1.1378 would negate the lower-highs read
ECB's Cipollone (13:15 UTC), US JOLTS (14:00 UTC) and Lane (18:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
Wed EU CPI prints vs 3%/3.4% forecasts and US ADP (12:15 UTC) are the next event risk for the ytd low test
Lower highs since Friday; Monday low broken in London.
H1 has printed lower highs since Friday's 1.1410 peak. Monday's NY bounce to 1.1388 on the Iran sanctions report faded, and today's London session broke the 1.1353 monday low to a session low at 1.1332, just above the 1.1324 ytd low, as the US 10Y at 5.27% and Lagarde's dovish tilt kept EUR soft. Price sits below EMA(20) near 1.1358 with RSI(14) oversold near 26, and the lower-highs line has capped every bounce this week, including the 1.1366 london high.
Support: 1.1332, 1.1324, 1.1300
Resistance: 1.1353, 1.1366, 1.1378
What it said to watch
A break below the 1.1324 ytd low exposes 1.1315 and the 1.1300 psych level
A recovery back above the 1.1353 monday low and EMA(20) would turn the London break into a false break
A close above the lower-highs line and the 1.1366 london high (near the 38.2% of the Fri-Tue drop at 1.1362) opens the path to the 1.1378 weekly open
Lagarde speaks at 11:00 UTC and JOLTS lands at 14:00 UTC; either could materially shift this read
Lower highs from Friday's 1.1410 peak, lower lows Thu/Mon/Tue.
The week opened with a gap down to 1.1378 from Friday's 1.1392 close. Monday's NY bounce stalled at 1.1388 beneath the lower-highs trendline, and Asia and London trade then slipped through the monday low at 1.1353 to a day low of 1.1342 in the London open. Price sits below EMA20 near 1.1362 with RSI(14) around 32, in line with a firm USD on the 5.27% US 10Y and Lagarde's dovish tilt trimming October hike bets.
Support: 1.13424, 1.1315
Resistance: 1.13529, 1.1362, 1.13776
What it said to watch
Lagarde at 11:00 UTC: acknowledging the hot Spanish CPI could force a relief bounce back into the monday low and ema20 zone
H1 close above the 1.1378 weekly open and the lower-highs trendline near 1.1383 would invalidate the downtrend read
Failure to hold the day low at 1.1342 exposes the 1.1315 key support; JOLTS at 14:00 UTC adds NY-session risk
RSI(14) nearing oversold. A higher RSI low on any retest of the day low would mark bullish divergence
Lower highs and lower lows; Monday range floor broken at London open.
Friday's rally to 1.1410 faded, the week opened lower at 1.1378 and supply capped Monday's NY rebound at 1.1388, below the 1.1391 week high, keeping the lower-high sequence and trendline intact. The London open pushed through Monday's 1.1353 low to a 1.1342 tuesday low, testing the late-July low near 1.1350, as oil above $100 and 10Y yields at 5.27% kept USD bid and hot Spain CPI failed to lift EUR after Lagarde's pushback on October hike bets. Price is below EMA(20) near 1.1362, which capped every hourly bounce since Monday's NY session, and RSI(14) at 31 is near oversold.
Support: 1.13424, 1.1315
Resistance: 1.1350, 1.1362, 1.13909
What it said to watch
Lagarde at 11:00 UTC: a hawkish lean on Spain's 5.0% HICP could spark a rebound through the 1.1350 july low; a 'middle path' repeat keeps the next support at 1.1315 in play
Failure to hold the 1.1342 tuesday low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.1315 next support
H1 close back above the ema20 near 1.1362 would reframe the Monday-low break as a false break
JOLTS at 14:00 UTC and Waller at 19:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Close above the 1.1391 week high breaks the lower-high trendline and the fib 61.8% at 1.1384
Lower highs since Friday; retesting the Monday week low.
Lower highs have followed Friday's 1.1410 NY-session peak, with Monday's NY sell-off setting the week low at 1.1353 and the rebound stalling at 1.1388, near the 61.8% retrace of the Friday-to-Monday drop. Price has stayed below the weekly open and EMA(20) since, and the lower-highs trendline has capped each bounce. Tuesday's early-Europe dip retested the week low, and the hot Spain CPI has failed to lift EUR as oil and US yields keep the dollar firm. RSI(14) near 38 leaves room before oversold.
Support: 1.13529, 1.1350
Resistance: 1.1367, 1.13776, 1.13909
What it said to watch
An H1 close below the 1.1353 week low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.1350 july low
A close above the lower-highs trendline and EMA(20) near 1.1367 would put the weekly open at 1.1378 back in play
Lagarde at 11:00 UTC and JOLTS at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Recovery above the 1.1391 week high negates the lower-high structure
Lower highs from 1.1410; price pressing the week low.
EUR/USD has printed lower highs since Friday's double cap at the 1.1410 Friday high. The week opened on a gap down at 1.1378, and that weekly open gave way in Monday's NY session, breaking Thursday's range to a 1.1353 week low as oil and US yields lifted USD. The NY bounce stalled at the 1.1388 Monday high, the 61.8% retracement of the Friday–Monday drop, and Asia has since drifted back below EMA(20) toward the week low with RSI(14) near 36, just above the 1.1350 July low.
Support: 1.1353, 1.1350
Resistance: 1.1378, 1.1388, 1.1410
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.1350 July low and week low confirms a fresh lower low, with 1.1315 the next support
H1 close above the 1.1388 Monday high breaks the lower-highs trendline and the lower-high sequence
Reclaiming the 1.1378 weekly open would neutralise Monday's range break
HICP (07:00 UTC) and Lagarde at 11:00 UTC could materially shift this read; JOLTS at 14:00 UTC is the USD risk
Friday high at 1.1410 remains the upper cap on any short-covering bounce
Lower highs capped by downtrend line; lows compressing into 1.1353–1.1359.
H1 has posted lower highs since Friday's twin 1.1410 London-session tops, and Monday's NY-session selloff printed the 1.1353 week low as a hawkish Fed, 5%+ US yields and $100+ Brent kept USD bid. The rebound met rejection at 1.1388, the 61.8% fib of the Friday-to-Monday leg. Asia has since slipped back to the 1.1359 thursday low, below both EMA(20) and EMA(50), with RSI(14) near 41 and the 1.1371 asian high and 1.1378 week open capping under the downtrend line.
Support: 1.13589, 1.13529, 1.1350
Resistance: 1.13712, 1.13776, 1.13884
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.1353 week low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.1350 july low, with 1.1315 the next digest support
Failure to hold the 1.1359 thursday low in the London session confirms a fresh lower low
Recovery above the 1.1371 asian high and the 1.1378 week open breaks the downtrend line and the lower-high read
A hot HICP print (07:00 UTC) or a hawkish tone from Lagarde (11:00 UTC) could materially shift this read, given oversold EUR positioning
JOLTS at 14:00 UTC and heavy Fedspeak into NY hours can reprice USD and test the week low
Lower highs from 1.1410; pressing 1.1353–1.1359 floor.
EURUSD has carved lower highs since Friday's 1.1410 peak. The weekend gap opened the week at 1.1378, and Monday's NY-hours bounce off the 1.1353 week low met rejection at the 61.8% fib near 1.1388 before rolling back under EMA(20) around 1.1370. Price now sits at 1.1360 on Thursday's lows, with RSI(14) near 42 and ATR compressed to about 8 pips in Asia as oil-driven Fed-hike repricing keeps USD bid against a 'measured' Lagarde.
Support: 1.1359, 1.1353, 1.1350
Resistance: 1.1370, 1.1378, 1.1391
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.1353 week low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.1350 july low
Close back above the 1.1378 weekly open and ema20 would ease pressure on the thu lows floor
Break of the 1.1391 week high breaches the lower-high trendline and neutralises the downtrend read
HICP (07:00 GMT), Lagarde (11:00 GMT) and US JOLTS (14:00 UTC) today could materially shift this read
04:01 UTC
Downtrend, stalling in Asia · RSI 48 · price 1.13678
Lower highs from Friday's 1.1410 peak, marginal lower low at 1.1353.
EUR/USD gapped below Friday's close into the week open at 1.1378, and Monday's NY session drove the slide to the week low at 1.1353. That low sits just under the Thu low and level with the late-July low, as Fed-hike bets and Brent above $100 kept USD firm. The NY rebound was rejected at 1.1388, near the 61.8% fib of the Friday-to-Monday decline and under the lower-highs trendline. Price has since flattened around EMA(20) near 1.1369 in the Asia session, with RSI(14) near 48 and ATR compressed to about 9 pips.
Support: 1.13589, 1.13529
Resistance: 1.13776, 1.13909, 1.14104
What it said to watch
HICP at 07:00 GMT and Lagarde at 11:00 GMT could materially shift this read, given crowded short-EUR positioning
An H1 close below the week low at 1.1353 confirms a lower low beneath the Thu low and the late-July pivot
Reclaiming the week open at 1.1378, then a close above the week high at 1.1391, breaks the lower-highs trendline and exposes the fri high at 1.1410
US JOLTS at 14:00 UTC and heavy Fedspeak during NY hours are the USD-side risk to the range
Lower highs from Friday's 1.1410 peak; marginal lower low at 1.1353, now compressing.
Lower highs have followed since the Friday high at 1.1410 was rejected twice. The NY session drove Monday's slide to the week low at 1.1353, and the rebound failed near 1.1388, below the Monday high and the weekly open at 1.1378. Price is now holding a tight Asian range above the Asia low at 1.1362, just under EMA(20) near 1.1370, with RSI(14) around 45 and ATR contracting, while USD strength on oil-driven Fed-hike repricing keeps the pair pressed toward the 1.1350 late-July low.
Support: 1.13624, 1.13529
Resistance: 1.1370, 1.13776, 1.13909
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.1353 week low and the 1.1350 late-July low confirms a lower-low extension; loss of the 1.1362 Asia low exposes it first
Close back above the weekly open at 1.1378 and the Monday high at 1.1391 breaks the lower-high trendline; 1.1400 is the next broken level
Eurozone HICP 07:00 UTC and Lagarde 11:00 UTC could materially shift this read given crowded EUR shorts
US JOLTS 14:00 UTC and the Fed speaker slate during NY hours are the USD-side risk to the compression
Lower highs since Wednesday's break of 1.1400; floor at 1.1353–1.1359.
Wednesday's London-to-NY slide through 1.1400 set the tone, and each rebound since has printed a lower high: the 1.1410 Friday high twice, 1.1391 as the Monday high, then 1.1388 in the NY session along the lower-highs trendline, stalling at the 61.8% retracement of the Friday high to weekly low leg. The first hours of NY on Monday produced a weekly low at 1.1353, just above the 1.1350 July low, as oil above $100 and Fed-hike repricing lifted the USD. Price now sits below EMA(20) and the weekly open at 1.1378, with RSI(14) near 42.
Support: 1.13589, 1.13529, 1.1350
Resistance: 1.13776, 1.13909, 1.14104
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.1353 weekly low and 1.1350 July low confirms a lower-low below the Thursday low at 1.1359
Reclaim of the weekly open at 1.1378 and a close above the 1.1391 Monday high breaks the lower-highs trendline; the Friday high at 1.1410 is the next resistance
Tue HICP at 07:00 UTC and Lagarde at 11:00 UTC could materially shift this read given crowded EUR shorts
US JOLTS at 14:00 UTC Tuesday is the first USD risk into the NY session
01:01 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 45 · price 1.1369
Lower highs since Wednesday, marginal lower low at 1.1353.
EURUSD has carved lower highs from Wednesday's 1.1446 through the 1.1410 Friday high. Monday's gap below Friday's 1.1392 close was followed by a NY-session slide to a 1.1353 week low, just under Thursday's 1.1359 low, as oil and Fed-hike repricing kept the USD bid. The bounce stalled at the 38.2% fib near 1.1388 and faded back below EMA(20) at 1.1372. Asia is now compressing in a 9-pip band, with RSI(14) at 45 and ATR near 10 pips.
Support: 1.1359, 1.1353, 1.1350
Resistance: 1.1372, 1.1388, 1.1410
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.1353 week low, and the 1.1350 july low, extends the lower-low sequence
Recovery above EMA(20) and the 38.2% fib at 1.1388 would break the lower-high line and shift the read to a range
Friday's 1.1410 high (61.8% fib) caps the range top; a close above it invalidates the downtrend read
Eurozone HICP 07:00 UTC and Lagarde 11:00 UTC could materially shift this read
US JOLTS 14:00 UTC and Fed speakers add USD-side risk during NY hours
00:01 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through the week · RSI 45 · price 1.13713
Thu–Fri range broken lower Monday; bounce capped near 38.2% retrace.
EUR/USD has printed lower highs since Wednesday's 1.1449 open. Monday opened on a bearish gap below Friday's 1.1392 close, stalled at the monday high 1.1391, and then broke the Thursday–Friday 1.1359–1.1410 range in the NY session to a week low at 1.1353. Brent above $100 and 10y yields at 2007 highs kept USD bid, while Lagarde's 'measured' line disappointed hike bets. The 35-pip rebound from the low faded under 1.1388, near the 38.2% retrace of the week's decline, and price now sits just below the ema20 with RSI(14) around 45.
Support: 1.13529, 1.1350
Resistance: 1.13735, 1.13909, 1.14104
What it said to watch
An H1 close back above the ema20 (~1.1374) would shift the read toward consolidation above the week low
An H1 close above the monday high 1.1391 breaks the lower-highs line and opens the friday high 1.1410 / 61.8% zone
A break of the week low 1.1353 exposes the 1.1350 july low; failure there confirms a fresh lower-low
Tue HICP 07:00 UTC, Lagarde 11:00 UTC and JOLTS 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read