Lower highs and lower lows since the 1.1654 mid-month peak.
EURUSD has printed successive lower highs at 1.1498 and 1.1410 since the 1.1654 peak. Price has slid to a fresh swing low at 1.1311 before closing back above the 1.1324 ytd low. The one-way USD bid tied to wider 2y UST/EGB spreads is driving the move, and both EMAs sit overhead with EMA20 below EMA50. ATR(14) near 21 pips has expanded on the latest leg, and the 1.1353 prior low now caps the first bounce.
Support: 1.1324, 1.1311
Resistance: 1.1353, 1.1410, 1.1498
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 1.1311 swing low extends the lower-low sequence and opens 1.1270
Reclaim of 1.1353 prior low and the 38.2% fib near 1.1382 would mark a deeper retracement of the lower high to swing low leg
H4 close above the 1.1410 swing high breaks the lower-high sequence
Wed euro-area CPI plus US ADP and core PCE could materially shift this read around the ytd low
Lower-high sequence from 1.1654; probe below YTD low reclaimed.
EURUSD has made lower highs and lower lows since the 1.1654 peak, capped by a descending lower-highs line. The latest leg briefly broke the 1.1325 YTD low to a 1.1311 swing low before the last bar closed back at 1.1338, a tentative false break. Hawkish Fed repricing and a wider 2y UST/EGB spread have driven USD strength this week. Price sits below both EMA20 and EMA50, RSI is recovering from oversold near 32, and ATR is modestly expanding around 21 pips. First overhead levels are the 1.1353 prior low and the fib 38.2 retrace at 1.1382 of the 1.1495–1.1311 leg.
Support: 1.1325, 1.1311, 1.1270
Resistance: 1.1353, 1.1382, 1.1410
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 1.1311 swing low confirms a fresh lower low and exposes the next level at 1.1270
Holding back above the 1.1325 ytd low keeps the false break read alive; reclaiming the 1.1353 prior low tests the fib 38.2 at 1.1382
Close above the 1.1410 swing high and the lower-highs line would break the lower-high sequence
Wed euro-area CPI/HICP and US ADP, Core PCE and GDP (12:15–12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read, with NFP later in the week
Lower highs and lower lows since 1.1654 peak; week-long 1.1353–1.1410 range broken lower.
EUR/USD has printed a clean sequence of lower highs from the 1.1654 mid-month peak, and a descending lower-highs trendline has capped every rally. Today price slipped out of the week-long range below its broken lows at 1.1355 and is now testing the 1.1325 ytd low. USD strength on 5.2%+ Treasury yields is overwhelming ECB hawkish talk. ATR(14) has settled near 20 pips after the mid-month expansion, and RSI in the low 20s marks oversold conditions into the level.
Support: 1.1325, 1.1300, 1.1270
Resistance: 1.1355, 1.1391, 1.1410
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 1.1325 ytd low extends the lower-low sequence and exposes the 1.1300 psych level, then next support near 1.1270
Recovery back above the broken lows at 1.1355 would reopen the prior range, with the fib 38.2 at 1.1391 and the 1.1410 swing high above
A break of the lower-highs trendline plus a close above the 1.1410 swing high would be the first higher high since the 1.1654 peak
ECB Lane today and Wednesday's German/Eurozone CPI prints could materially shift this read
US ADP and core PCE Wednesday, then NFP Friday, carry the larger move risk for the USD leg
16:27 UTC
Downtrend, steady rather than accelerating · RSI 30 · price 1.1335
Lower highs since 1.1654; 1.1355-1.1410 range broken lower.
Lower highs have stepped down from 1.1654 through 1.1498 and 1.1410. A descending line off those highs now sits near 1.1388. The 1.1355-1.1410 range that held from late last week gave way, and price is pressing the 1.1325 ytd low as hawkish Fed repricing and wider 2y spreads keep the dollar bid, with the soft JOLTS print shrugged off. EMA20 sits below EMA50 with price under both, and ATR(14) around 19 pips shows an orderly grind lower rather than a capitulation leg.
Support: 1.1325, 1.1270
Resistance: 1.1355, 1.1410
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 1.1325 ytd low extends the lower-low sequence toward next support at 1.1270
Recovery back above the 1.1355 range floor would mark the break as a false break
Close above the 1.1410 range high, near the decline fib 50%, breaks the lower highs line and changes the read
US ADP and PCE on Wed from 12:15 UTC, plus NFP later this week, could materially shift this read
ECB's Lane at 18:00 UTC today and Wed euro-area CPI prints are the nearer event risk
Lower highs and lower lows since the 1.1654 early-month high.
EURUSD has printed lower highs and lower lows since the 1.1654 peak. The latest swing low at 1.1332 sits just above the 1.1324 ytd low, and price is capped by a lower-highs trendline through the 1.1410 double high and by the ema20 near 1.1372. ATR(14) has contracted to about 19 pips from the mid-month expansion, so the grind lower is orderly rather than accelerating. Lagarde's dovish tilt trimmed October-hike bets while the USD stays bid on yields and firm US data.
Support: 1.1332, 1.1324, 1.1270
Resistance: 1.1372, 1.1410, 1.1497
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 1.1324 ytd low extends the lower-low sequence and exposes the 1.1270 ext support
Recovery above the ema20 and the lower-highs trendline puts the 1.1410 double high back in play, which also sits at the 38.2% retrace of the move from the 1.1497 swing high
Hot EZ national CPI on Wed could revive ECB hike pricing into a short-heavy pair and challenge the downtrend read
US JOLTS today and ADP Wed ahead of PCE/NFP could decide whether the swing low at 1.1332 gives way
Lower highs and lower lows under a descending trendline.
Lower highs and lower lows have held since the 1.1654 early-month top. The descending trendline has capped each rally, and the 1.1410 swing high marks the latest lower high after the 1.1455 range base gave way. Price has now slipped out of the 1.1353–1.1410 box to a new swing low at 1.1342, with oil above $100, a hawkish Fed repricing and Lagarde's pushback on October hikes all weighing on EUR. ATR(14) near 19.5 pips is compressed versus the mid-month expansion, and price trades below both falling EMA20 and EMA50.
Support: 1.1342, 1.1315
Resistance: 1.1392, 1.1410, 1.1455
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 1.1342 swing low extends the lower-low sequence toward next support at 1.1315
Recovery through the trendline (~1.1392) and the 1.1410 swing high, near the fib 38.2% at 1.1402, would break the lower-high structure
Reclaim of the 1.1455 range base would neutralise the range break read
Lagarde speech 11:00 UTC: a hawkish lean on hot Spain inflation could materially shift this read
JOLTS 14:00 UTC and Waller 19:00 UTC feed October Fed hike pricing and USD direction
Lower highs 1.1654 → 1.1498 → 1.1410; tight range 1.1353–1.1410.
Sequence of lower highs and lower lows since the 1.1654 early-window peak, with the break below 1.1400 driven by rising Treasury yields, Fed-hike repricing and Brent above $100. The bounce from the 1.1359 low stalled at the 1.1410 range top, near the 38.2% retracement of the 1.1498 lower high to 1.1353 swing low leg. Price is now pressing the range floor just above the late-July 1.1350 pivot, and ATR(14) near 19 pips is compressed versus the 30-40 pip bars of the selloff. Price is below both EMA(20) and EMA(50).
Support: 1.1353, 1.1300
Resistance: 1.1410, 1.1425, 1.1498
What it said to watch
An H4 close below the 1.1353 swing low extends the lower-low sequence and opens the path to the 1.1300 round number.
An H4 close back above the 1.1410 range top reclaims the breakdown zone and brings the fib 50% at 1.1425 and the 1.1498 lower high into view.
Eurozone HICP and Lagarde today, plus JOLTS today and ADP Wednesday, could break the current compression at the range floor.
Lower highs/lower lows, basing in 1.1353-1.1410 box.
The pair has printed lower highs and lower lows since the 1.1654 early-month peak. It lost the mid-month 1.1497 range top and the 1.1400 area as oil and hawkish Fed repricing lifted the USD. For about a week it has held a 1.1353-1.1410 consolidation: the bounce stalled at the swing high near the 38.2% retracement of the 1.1497-1.1353 leg, and the latest swing low only marginally undercut 1.1359. ATR(14) has compressed to around 19 pips, and price sits below both EMA20 and EMA50, with EMA20 still under EMA50.
Support: 1.1353, 1.1300
Resistance: 1.1410, 1.1442, 1.1497
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 1.1410 swing high breaks the lower-high sequence and exposes the 61.8% fib at 1.1442, then the 1.1497 range top
Sustained break below the 1.1353 swing low (near the 1.1350 summer low) extends the downtrend toward the 1.1300 round number
Tue HICP (07:00 UTC) and Lagarde (11:00 UTC) meet crowded EUR shorts and could materially shift this read
Wed ADP (f/c 72K) and quarter-end flows on Sep 30 are two-way USD risk against the consolidation