EUR/USD AI Live Scan, 15-minute chart, Tuesday, 29 September 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the EUR/USD 15-minute chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:46 UTC
Downtrend, paused after reversal off NY low · RSI 54 · price 1.13393
False break below ytd low, now tight Asia range.
NY hours flushed through the 1.1324 ytd low to a 1.1311 ny low on broad USD strength from high yields, then an 18:00 UTC reversal reclaimed the level, a false break. Early Asia is ranging 1.1334–1.1344 between range low and range top, capped at the 61.8% fib of the 1.1358–1.1311 leg, with ATR near 3 pips.
Support: 1.13338, 1.1324, 1.13114
Resistance: 1.13437, 1.13578
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1344 range top and 61.8% fib opens the path to the 1.1358 swing high
Failure to hold the 1.1334 range low puts the 1.1324 ytd low back in play; a break there targets a retest of the 1.1311 ny low
EZ Retail Sales 06:00 UTC and EU-norm CPI 06:45 UTC could materially shift this read and break the Asia range
23:31 UTC
Intraday downtrend, stalled in range · RSI 53 · price 1.13403
Post-rebound range 1.1334–1.1344 after false break below YTD low.
London broke below the Asian range and NY extended the yield-driven USD bid to a day low at 1.1311, briefly through the 1.1325 ytd low, before an 18:00 UTC spike reclaimed the level. Since then price has held a tight 1.1334 range floor to 1.1344 range top into the Asia session, capped at the 61.8% retrace of the 1.1358–1.1311 leg, with 1.1358 the swing high above.
Support: 1.1334, 1.1325, 1.13114
Resistance: 1.13437, 1.13578
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1344 range top clears the 61.8% retrace and exposes the 1.1358 swing high
Failure to hold the 1.1334 range floor puts the 1.1325 ytd low and 1.1311 day low back in focus
German Retail Sales 06:00 UTC and EU-norm CPI 06:45 UTC could break the Asian range; US ADP/PCE later Wednesday
London broke the Asian range low near 1.1355, and USD strength drove lower highs into a 1.1311 ny low beneath the 1.1325 ytd low. An 18:00 UTC spike reclaimed that level, making it a false break, and stalled near the 68% rebound fib off the 1.1358 swing high. Early Asia is now boxed between the 1.1334 range low and the 1.1344 range top, with price pinned at the EMAs and RSI(14) neutral near 48.
Support: 1.1334, 1.1325, 1.1311
Resistance: 1.1344, 1.1358
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1344 range top opens the 1.1358 swing high
Loss of the 1.1334 range low puts the 1.1325 ytd low and 1.1311 ny low back in play
EZ Retail Sales 06:00 UTC and EU-norm CPI 06:45 UTC could break the range at London open
German HICP 12:00 UTC and US ADP/Core PCE 12:15–12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
23:01 UTC
Downtrend, pausing after a snap-back · RSI 45 · price 1.1338
Lower highs through London/NY, false break of the 1.1325 ytd low, now a tight post-spike range.
Broad USD strength took EUR/USD out of the Asian range and through the 1.1325 ytd low to a 1.1311 session low in the NY session. It reclaimed the level with a sharp 18:00 UTC spike, and the rebound has since stalled in a 1.1334–1.1344 range near the 61.8% retrace of the 1.1358 swing high to session low leg. RSI(14) is neutral at 45, with price just under EMA20/50 into the Asia session.
Support: 1.1334, 1.1325, 1.1311
Resistance: 1.1344, 1.1358
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1344 range high and 61.8% retrace opens the 1.1358 swing high
Loss of the 1.1334 range low puts the 1.1325 ytd low back in play; acceptance below it undoes the false break
German Retail Sales (06:00 UTC) and EU-norm CPI (06:45 UTC) at London open could break the range
False break below YTD low, then tight 1.1334–1.1344 post-NY range.
Broad USD strength pushed NY through the 1.1325 YTD low to a 1.1311 NY low before a 20-pip reversal bar reclaimed it, a false break now pinned near the 61.8% fib of the 1.1358 London high to NY low leg. Early Asia is compressing in a 1.1334–1.1344 range, with RSI(14) flat at 52 and ATR near 5 pips.
Support: 1.1334, 1.1325, 1.1311
Resistance: 1.1344, 1.1358, 1.1372
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1344 range high opens the 1.1358 London high, then the 1.1372 Asian high from the prior session
Failure to hold the 1.1334 range low returns focus to the 1.1325 YTD low; a close back below it negates the false break and exposes the 1.1311 NY low
Eurozone Retail Sales (06:00 UTC) and CPI (09:00 UTC) in the London morning could materially shift this read, with US ADP/PCE from 12:15 UTC after
Tight range 1.1334–1.1343 after false break below YTD low.
London broke the Asian range low near 1.1355 and NY pushed the pair to a 1.1311 session low. That was a false break of the 1.1324 ytd low, reclaimed by a 22-pip rally at 18:15 UTC as broad USD strength paused. Since then price has compressed between a 1.1334 range floor and a 1.1343 range top into early Asia, capped at the 61.8% fib, with RSI(14) neutral near 51 and price pinned at EMA50.
Support: 1.1334, 1.1324, 1.1311
Resistance: 1.1343, 1.1358
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1343 range top clears the 61.8% fib and opens the 1.1358 swing high
Loss of the 1.1334 range floor puts the 1.1324 ytd low and the 1.1311 session low back in play
Euro-area Retail Sales and CPI/HICP releases from 06:00 UTC, then US ADP/PCE at 12:15–12:30 UTC, could break the range
Tight range 1.1334–1.1344 after reclaim of ytd low.
NY hours pushed through the 1.1324 ytd low to a 1.1311 session low before an 18:00 UTC reversal reclaimed it, a false break against a day of lower highs driven by broad USD strength. Since then price has ranged 1.1334–1.1344 into the Asia session, sitting at the 61.8% retracement of the 1.1358–1.1311 drop with RSI(14) neutral.
Support: 1.1334, 1.1324, 1.1311
Resistance: 1.1344, 1.1358
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1344 range high clears the 61.8% retracement and exposes the 1.1358 midday high
Loss of the 1.1334 range low returns focus to the 1.1324 ytd low; acceptance below it re-opens the 1.1311 session low
Eurozone Retail Sales (06:00 UTC) and the CPI releases that follow could materially shift this read
22:03 UTC
Downtrend, rebound stalling in a tight range · RSI 50 · price 1.13404
False break below ytd low reclaimed; post-rollover range 1.1334–1.1343.
Broad USD strength pushed EURUSD through the 1.1324 ytd low to a 1.1311 day low in NY hours, before a 20-pip reclaim at 17:00 UTC turned it into a false break. Since rollover, price has held a quiet range between the 1.1334 rollover low and the 1.1343 rebound high. It sits on the EMA50 and the 61.8% retrace of the 1.1358 swing high to day low drop, with RSI(14) flat near 50.
Support: 1.1334, 1.1324, 1.1311
Resistance: 1.1343, 1.1349, 1.1358
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1343 rebound high breaks the post-rollover range and exposes the 1.1349 prior pivot, then the 1.1358 swing high
Failure to hold the 1.1334 rollover low puts the 1.1324 ytd low back in play; a close back below it negates the false break and re-opens the 1.1311 day low
EUR Retail Sales (06:00 UTC) and CPI (09:00 UTC) around London open, then US ADP/PCE from 12:15 UTC, could materially shift this read
False break of 1.1325 YTD low, now compressing in 1.1334–1.1343 band.
Firm USD on 10Y yields above 5.2% pushed the pair through the 1.1325 YTD low to a 1.1311 day low in NY hours. A 22-pip reversal at 18:00 UTC reclaimed the level, a false break. Since then price has compressed between the 1.1334 range low and the 1.1343 rebound high, near the 61.8% retrace of the London high-to-day low leg. RSI(14) is neutral near 56 into a thin Asia open.
Support: 1.1334, 1.1325, 1.1311
Resistance: 1.1343, 1.1349, 1.1358
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1343 rebound high exposes the 1.1349 swing high and the 1.1358 London high
Loss of the 1.1334 range low puts the 1.1325 YTD low back in play; a close below the 1.1311 day low negates the false break
Euro-area Retail Sales (06:00 UTC) and CPI (09:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 1.1366; tight 1.1334–1.1343 range after late-NY sweep.
London broke below the 1.1355–1.1371 Asian range and NY kept printing lower highs as USD/yields firmed, ending in a sweep to the 1.1311 sweep low through the 1.1324 YTD low before a sharp 20-pip reversal. Since the 18:30 UTC ny high at 1.1343, price has held a tight 1.1334–1.1343 range in thin post-NY trade, sitting at the 61.8% fib of the 12:00 high–sweep low leg, with EMA20/50 flat just below price.
Support: 1.1334, 1.1311
Resistance: 1.1343, 1.1358
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1343 ny high clears the range and puts the 1.1358 12:00 high and the lower-highs line in play
Loss of the 1.1334 range low reopens the 1.1311 sweep low and the 1.1324 YTD low zone
Wed EUR Retail Sales/CPI from 06:00 UTC, then ADP 12:15 and core PCE 12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Lower highs all day; post-NY consolidation 1.1334–1.1343 after the ytd low gave way and was reclaimed.
NY hours pushed through the 1.1324 ytd low to a 1.1311 day low on broad USD strength, then an 18:00 UTC spike reclaimed the level and stalled at the 61.8% fib retrace of the 1.1358 lower high to day low move. Price has since held a tight 1.1334–1.1343 range into the Asia open, still below the lower-highs line near 1.1345, with ATR(14) about 6 pips.
Support: 1.1334, 1.1324, 1.1311
Resistance: 1.1343, 1.1358
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1334 range low reopens the 1.1324 ytd low and 1.1311 day low
Close above the 1.1343 range high and the lower-highs line near 1.1345 exposes the 1.1358 lower high
Thin post-rollover Asia session liquidity can exaggerate moves around the range edges
Euro-area CPI prints from 06:00 UTC and US ADP/PCE at 12:15–12:30 UTC Wed could materially shift this read
Lower highs capped by falling trendline; 1.1335–1.1343 consolidation after a reclaim of the YTD low.
Broad USD strength pushed EURUSD to a 1.1311 day low in NY hours, briefly below the 1.1324 YTD low, before a 20-pip spike reclaimed it. Price now holds a 1.1335–1.1343 consolidation just above the 61.8% fib of the 1.1358–1.1311 decline. The lower-high sequence from 1.1366 stays intact under the falling trendline, with RSI(14) near 56 and ATR around 6 pips into the Asia handover.
Support: 1.13342, 1.1324, 1.13114
Resistance: 1.13431, 1.13578
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1343 rebound high puts the falling trendline near 1.1346 and the 1.1358 lower high in play
Loss of the 1.1335 consol low reopens the 1.1324 YTD low; a close below the 1.1311 day low negates the false break
EUR retail sales/CPI from 06:00 UTC and US ADP/PCE at 12:15–12:30 UTC Wed could materially shift this read
20:47 UTC
Downtrend, pausing after rebound from day low · RSI 53 · price 1.1339
Lower highs from Asian high to 1.1311 low; NY rebound now compressing below lower-high line.
London and NY extended the slide from the 1.1371 Asian high through the 1.1324 YTD low to a 1.1311 day low as the hawkish-Fed USD bid held, before a 20-pip NY-afternoon bar reclaimed the level. Late NY is compressing between the 1.1334 late low and the 1.1343 spike high near the 61.8% fib, with price pinned at EMA50 and RSI(14) neutral at 53.
Support: 1.1334, 1.1324, 1.1311
Resistance: 1.1343, 1.1358, 1.1371
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1343 spike high and the lower-high line opens the 1.1358 swing high
Loss of the 1.1334 late low puts the 1.1324 ytd low back in play; failure there retests the 1.1311 day low and turns the reclaim into a lower-low
Euro-area Retail Sales and CPI from 06:00 UTC, then US ADP and PCE at 12:15/12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Lower highs from London; false break below YTD low reclaimed.
London broke the 1.1355–1.1371 Asian range lower, and NY extended the slide on broad USD strength to a session low at 1.1311, briefly through the 1.1324 ytd low. An 18:00 UTC spike reclaimed the level, but the bounce high at 1.1343 has capped price after the NY close, with price holding near the 50% retracement around 1.1335.
Support: 1.1324, 1.1311
Resistance: 1.1343, 1.1358
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.1324 ytd low reopens the 1.1311 session low
M15 close above the 1.1343 bounce high shifts focus to the 1.1358 midday high
Wed euro-area CPI/HICP from 06:00 UTC, then US ADP and PCE at 12:15/12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 1.1358, false break of 1.1324 then tight 1.1335–1.1343 range.
EUR/USD broke below the Asian range (1.1355–1.1371) at the London open. It then held a lower-high sequence from the 1.1358 swing high through NY, briefly clearing the 1.1324 old YTD low to a 1.1311 day low at 16:45 UTC before an 18:00 UTC spike reclaimed it, with USD strength on 10Y yields above 5.2% driving the slide. Late NY is compressing between the 1.1335 rebound low and the 1.1343 bounce high, stalling at the 61.8% fib of the 1.1358–1.1311 leg with price sitting on EMA50.
Support: 1.1335, 1.1324, 1.1311
Resistance: 1.1343, 1.1358
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1343 bounce high opens the 1.1358 swing high
Loss of the 1.1335 rebound low and a close back under the 1.1324 old ytd low voids the false break read and puts the 1.1311 day low back in focus
Rejection at the 61.8% fib near 1.1340 keeps the lower-high sequence intact
Euro-area Retail Sales/CPI from 06:00 UTC and US ADP/PCE at 12:15–12:30 UTC Wed could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows; false break of 1.1324 reclaimed, now tight post-spike range.
London broke below the Asian range and the session printed lower highs from the 1.1358 midday high into a late-NY flush to the 1.1311 day low. That move briefly broke the 1.1324 YTD low before a sharp reclaim, set against broad USD strength on Fed hike repricing and 5.2% 10y yields. After London close, price is holding a 1.1334 rebound base to 1.1343 rebound high range, near the 61.8% retrace and under the lower-highs trendline.
Support: 1.1334, 1.1324, 1.13114
Resistance: 1.13431, 1.13578
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.1324 ytd low re-exposes the 1.1311 day low and turns the reclaim into a failed rebound
Loss of the 1.1334 rebound base returns price to the 50% retrace near 1.1335 and then 1.1329
Close above the 1.1343 rebound high and the lower-highs trendline near 1.1347 opens the 1.1358 midday high
German retail sales, CPI and unemployment from 06:00 UTC, then US ADP/Core PCE at 12:15–12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
NY lower-high chain; false break of 1.1324 reclaimed.
The broad USD bid carried the NY session through the 1.1324 ytd low to a 1.1311 session low. A 22-pip spike at 18:00 UTC then reclaimed the level, printing a false break. Price is stalling at the 1.1343 spike high, just under EMA50 and around the 61.8% fib of the london high-to-session low leg.
Support: 1.1334, 1.1324, 1.13114
Resistance: 1.13431, 1.13457, 1.13578
What it said to watch
Fed's Waller (19:00 UTC, in progress) could materially shift this read
Holding the 1.1334 spike base keeps the false-break read intact
An M15 close back below the 1.1324 ytd low reopens the 1.1311 session low
An M15 close above the 1.1346 lower high breaks the NY lower-high chain and exposes the 1.1358 london high
German retail sales and unemployment from 06:00 UTC Wed, then ADP and core PCE at 12:15–12:30 UTC
Lower highs from London; false break below YTD low reclaimed.
London and NY extended the USD-driven slide from the 1.1358 london high through the 1.1324 ytd low to a 1.1311 sweep low. A 20-pip reversal around ECB Lane at 18:00 UTC reclaimed the level. Price now sits at the 61.8% retrace just under the 1.1343 bounce high, with RSI(14) near 57.
Support: 1.1324, 1.1311
Resistance: 1.1343, 1.1358
What it said to watch
Fed's Waller at 19:00 UTC is under way and could materially shift this read
M15 close back below the 1.1324 ytd low turns the reclaim into a failed rebound and reopens the 1.1311 sweep low
Close above the 1.1343 bounce high clears the 61.8% retrace and opens the 1.1358 london high
Lower highs from 1.1358; YTD low broken then reclaimed.
Broad USD strength drove EUR/USD through the Asian range low early in London. The slide then ran from the 1.1358 NY high through the 1.1325 YTD low to a 1.1311 session low. A late-NY 20-pip bar reclaimed the YTD low, and price is now stalling at the fib 61.8 (1.1340) of the NY drop with the fib 50% at 1.1335 beneath.
Support: 1.13346, 1.1325, 1.13114
Resistance: 1.13401, 1.13457, 1.13578
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.1325 ytd low negates the false break read and reopens the 1.1311 session low
Sustained trade above the 1.1340 fib 61.8 puts the 1.1346 swing high and 1.1358 ny high in play
Fed's Waller at 19:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Wed ADP 12:15 UTC and core PCE 12:30 UTC are the next scheduled USD risk
Lower highs from 1.1358 NY high; false break below 1.1325 YTD low reclaimed.
London broke below the 1.1355–1.1371 Asian range, and the USD-led slide from the 1.1358 NY high pushed through the 1.1325 YTD low to a 1.1311 session low. The 18:00 UTC bar, at ECB Lane's scheduled slot, reclaimed about 22 pips to a 1.1337 spike high, breaking the NY downtrend line and stalling near the 50% retracement. The 61.8% fib at 1.1340 sits just overhead.
Support: 1.1325, 1.1311
Resistance: 1.1337, 1.1340, 1.1358
What it said to watch
Failure to hold back above the 1.1325 YTD low turns the false break into a fresh lower low toward the 1.1311 session low
M15 close above the 1.1337 spike high and the 61.8% fib at 1.1340 exposes the 1.1358 NY high
Fed's Waller at 19:00 UTC could materially shift this read; US ADP/Core PCE Wed 12:15–12:30 UTC
Lower highs from London high 1.1358; YTD low broken in NY, retest from below.
USD strength on record-high yields drove EURUSD out of the Asian range at 1.1355 and through the 1.1325 ytd low in NY hours, printing a session low at 1.1311 with RSI(14) near 34. The current bounce is retesting the broken ytd low from below, and the descending trendline off 1.1358 is still capping.
Support: 1.1311, 1.1300
Resistance: 1.1325, 1.1336, 1.1346
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 1.1325 (ytd low) undoes the breakout read
Reclaim of the 1.1336 lower high (~50% retracement of the sell-off) breaks the lower-high chain
Failure at 1.1325 and a break of the 1.1311 session low exposes the 1.1300 round number
Descending trendline near 1.1346 is the next cap if the bounce extends
Fed's Williams (18:00 UTC), Waller (19:00 UTC) and ECB Lane (18:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
Lower highs since NY open; YTD low broken, flag-like pause below it.
Lower highs from the 1.1358 NY high pushed EURUSD through the 1.1325 ytd low to a 1.1311 session low at 16:45 UTC, with the yields-driven USD bid outweighing mixed EUR data. Price is now holding a narrow shelf just above that low after London close, with RSI(14) near 28 and ATR around 6 pips.
Support: 1.13114, 1.1300
Resistance: 1.1325, 1.13363, 1.13578
What it said to watch
Close back above 1.1325 ytd low undercuts the breakout read
Break of 1.1311 session low exposes the 1.1300 round number
Close above the 1.1336 lower high breaks the NY descending line and the chain of lower highs
ECB Lane and Fed Williams at 18:00 UTC, Waller at 19:00 UTC, are near-term headline risk
17:17 UTC
Downtrend, fresh lows after London close · RSI 27 · price 1.13163
Lower-high/lower-low chain since 1.1358; YTD low 1.1324 broken.
EUR/USD broke through the 1.1324 ytd low at 16:45 UTC, after the London close, and set a 1.1311 session low as the USD bid on 5.2%+ yields persisted. The NY-session leg from the 1.1358 swing high has built a lower-high chain through the 1.1336 lower high. The first bounce is stalling below the broken ytd low, with RSI(14) near 27 and ATR around 6 pips.
Support: 1.13114, 1.1300, 1.1270
Resistance: 1.13245, 1.13363, 1.13578
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 1.1324 ytd low would mark the break as a false break
Loss of the 1.1311 session low exposes the 1.1300 round number, with 1.1270 next support beyond
A close above the 1.1336 lower high breaks the lower-high chain; the 1.1358 swing high sits above that
Fed's Williams and ECB's Lane at 18:00 UTC and Waller at 19:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since London open; YTD low broken.
London broke the Asian low near 1.1356. NY kept printing lower highs under the midday 1.1358 peak, and the 16:45 UTC bar cut through the 1.1325 YTD low to a 1.1311 session low as USD yield strength dominated. RSI(14) near 24 is stretched, but no base has formed after London close.
Support: 1.1311, 1.1300, 1.1270
Resistance: 1.1325, 1.1336, 1.1356
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 1.1325 YTD low would turn the break into a false break
Clearing the lower highs trendline near 1.1336 breaks the lower-high chain
Losing the 1.1311 session low and psych 1.1300 exposes next support at 1.1270
ECB Lane and Fed Williams at 18:00 UTC, then Waller at 19:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
LH/LL sequence from the 1.1358 swing high; current bar breaking the 1.1325 YTD low.
EUR/USD has printed a clean string of lower highs from the 1.1358 swing high through the London-NY transition. The current bar, just after London close, is pushing through the 1.1325 YTD low to 1.1318 as USD strength on 5.2%+ UST yields outweighs mixed Eurozone data. RSI(14) near 24 is stretched but not extreme, and the Asian range of 1.1355–1.1374 sits well overhead.
Support: 1.1300, 1.1270
Resistance: 1.1325, 1.1336, 1.1358
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 1.1325 YTD low would mark the break as a false break
A close above the 1.1336 lower high breaks the falling trendline sequence
The 1.1300 round number is the next test; failure there exposes the 1.1270 next support
Fed speakers (Williams 18:00, Waller 19:00 UTC) and ECB Lane at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
16:16 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through London and NY · RSI 36 · price 1.1335
Asian range broken lower; LH/LL chain, fresh session low 1.1327.
London broke the Asian range low near 1.1355, and the midday bounce met rejection at the 1.1358 swing high. The move then extended to a 1.1327 session low in NY hours on broad USD strength that ignored the soft JOLTS print. Price is now bouncing a few pips off that low, capped below the 1.1346 lower high and just above the 1.1324 YTD low.
Support: 1.1327, 1.1324
Resistance: 1.1346, 1.1358, 1.1366
What it said to watch
A close below the 1.1327 session low puts the 1.1324 YTD low in play
An M15 close back above the 1.1346 lower high (61.8% fib) breaks the LH chain; the 1.1358 swing high is next
Recovery above the 1.1366 London high would negate the session downtrend read
ECB's Lane and Fed's Williams at 18:00 UTC, then Waller at 19:00 UTC, could shift the read after London close
LH/LL chain since London broke the Asian range; NY printed a new session low.
London broke below the 1.1355–1.1374 Asian range and NY extended the lower-high chain from the 1.1358 swing high to a 1.1327 session low, just above the 1.1324 ytd low, as firm USD shrugged off the soft JOLTS miss. Price is now pressing the 1.1332 London low from below, capped under the descending trendline with RSI(14) near 35.
Support: 1.1327, 1.1324
Resistance: 1.1339, 1.1346, 1.1358
What it said to watch
Close below the 1.1327 session low and 1.1324 ytd low extends the lower-low sequence toward 1.1270
Recovery through the 38.2% fib at 1.1339 and the descending trendline would stall the downtrend read; 1.1346 lower high is the next cap
Break above the 1.1358 swing high invalidates the intraday lower-high structure
Fed's Williams and ECB's Lane at 18:00 UTC, then Waller at 19:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
LH/LL chain; NY session broke the London low, now just above the YTD low.
London open broke below the Asian range, and a lower-high chain has run from the 1.1358 London high through the 1.1346 NY high. The NY session then broke the 1.1332 London low and printed a 1.1327 session low, a few pips above the 1.1324 YTD low, as the firm USD shrugged off the soft JOLTS data. RSI(14) sits near 31, weak but not stretched.
Support: 1.1327, 1.1324
Resistance: 1.1332, 1.1346, 1.1358
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1324 YTD low extends the lower-low sequence
Failure to reclaim the 1.1332 London low keeps it acting as resistance
Recovery above the 1.1346 NY high breaks the lower-high trendline
ECB Lane and Fed Williams at 18:00 UTC, Waller at 19:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Asian range broken lower; NY lower highs pressing the London low.
London broke below the Asian range low at 1.1355 and ran to a 1.1332 london low. The midday bounce stalled at the 1.1358 swing high, and NY has since printed lower highs back toward that low, with the pair sitting just above the 1.1325 ytd low on USD strength tied to 10Y yields near 5.25%. RSI(14) is near 32, not yet at an extreme.
Support: 1.13322, 1.1325
Resistance: 1.13457, 1.13578
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1332 london low exposes the 1.1325 ytd low
M15 close above the 1.1346 lower high breaks the NY lower-highs trendline
Fed speakers (Barr 16:40, Goolsbee 17:00, Williams 18:00, Waller 19:00 UTC) and ECB Lane at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Reclaim of the 1.1358 swing high would put price back toward the broken Asian range
15:16 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through NY · RSI 39 · price 1.13378
Asian range broken lower; NY lower-high chain below 1.1358.
London broke below the Asian range and set a 1.1332 low. The early-NY rebound stalled at 1.1358, and a run of lower highs has since pulled price back to 1.1338 as high US yields and Lagarde's dovish tilt weigh on the pair. The London low and the 1.1324 YTD low sit just below, and RSI(14) near 39 is not stretched.
Support: 1.1332, 1.1324
Resistance: 1.1346, 1.1358, 1.1374
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1332 london low puts the 1.1324 ytd low in play
Close above the 1.1346 lower high breaks the NY lower-high trendline; the 1.1358 rebound high sits above
Asian high at 1.1374 caps the broader intraday range
Fed speakers from 15:00 UTC (Williams 18:00) and ECB's Lane at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Asian range broken lower; NY printing lower highs, compressing above 1.1338.
London broke the Asian range low near 1.1355 and extended to the 1.1332 london low, just above the 1.1324 ytd low, as yield-driven USD strength and Lagarde's dovish tilt weighed. The bounce was rejected at the 1.1358 rebound high, about 75% of the London drop. Early NY has printed lower highs under a descending trendline, with the 1.1338 ny low holding and RSI(14) near 43.
Support: 1.13376, 1.13322, 1.1324
Resistance: 1.13457, 1.13578
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1338 ny low exposes the 1.1332 london low and the 1.1324 ytd low
Close above the 1.1346 lower high and the descending trendline shifts focus back to the 1.1358 rebound high
Fed speakers from 15:00 UTC (Bowman, then Barr and Goolsbee) and ECB's Lane at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs below Asian low, higher low at 1.1338.
London broke the Asian range low near 1.1355 on firm USD and Lagarde's dovish tilt, printing a london low at 1.1332 just above the 1.1324 YTD low. The midday rebound stalled on a retest of the asia low at 1.1358, extending the lower highs from 06:00 UTC. The NY dip then held a higher low at the ny low 1.1338, with price flat on EMA20 and RSI(14) near 48.
Support: 1.13376, 1.13322, 1.1324
Resistance: 1.13578, 1.13739
What it said to watch
Fed speakers from 15:00 UTC (Bowman, then Barr, Goolsbee, Williams, Waller) could materially shift this read after the soft JOLTS print
Loss of the 1.1338 ny low breaks the higher low and puts the 1.1332 london low and 1.1324 ytd low in play
M15 close above the 1.1358 asia low breaks the lower highs line and reopens the asia high at 1.1374
ECB's Lane at 18:00 UTC is the next EUR-side risk to the structure
14:16 UTC
Downtrend, bounce faded · RSI 46 · price 1.13421
Lower highs since the 1.1358 swing high, testing the 1.1339 pullback low.
London broke the Asian low at 1.1355 and ran to a 1.1332 london low on broad USD strength from high yields. The midday bounce capped at a 1.1358 swing high. Lower highs since then have pulled price back to the 61.8% of the bounce fib near 1.1342, just above the 1.1339 pullback low.
Support: 1.13387, 1.13322, 1.1324
Resistance: 1.13471, 1.13547, 1.13578
What it said to watch
JOLTS and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC land in the current bar and could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 1.1347 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline
Failure to hold the 1.1339 pullback low exposes the 1.1332 london low and the 1.1324 ytd low
Recovery back above the 1.1355 asian low and 1.1358 swing high negates the downtrend read
ECB's Lane at 18:00 UTC is a further risk to the read
14:01 UTC
Downtrend, lower high in place · RSI 46 · price 1.13415
London broke below the Asian range; bounce capped at 1.1358, NY pressing the lows.
London broke below the Asian range and printed a session low at 1.1332 on broad USD strength from high yields and Fed-hike repricing. The recovery stalled at 1.1358, a lower high near the 61.8% retrace, and the NY session has pushed back through the 1.1349 swing high toward 1.1340. Price sits below both EMAs.
Support: 1.1332, 1.1324
Resistance: 1.1349, 1.1358
What it said to watch
JOLTS and US Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC land on the current bar and could materially shift this read
M15 close below 1.1332 session low exposes the 1.1324 ytd low
Reclaim of 1.1349 swing high and then 1.1358 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence
ECB's Lane at 18:00 UTC and Fedspeak into the evening add event risk
Asian range broken lower in London; lower high at 1.1358 on the retest, price fading into early NY.
London broke the Asian range lower and ran to a london low at 1.1332 as the Lagarde-driven dovish read and firm US yields weighed. The early-NY rebound was rejected at the midday high of 1.1358, a retest of the broken Asian low, and has since given back about 66% of the rebound fib to 1.1340, below both EMAs with the descending highs intact and the pullback low at 1.1339 the nearest shelf.
Support: 1.1339, 1.1332, 1.1324
Resistance: 1.1358, 1.1371
What it said to watch
JOLTS and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC, one bar away, could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 1.1332 london low confirms a lower-low and exposes the 1.1324 ytd low
Close above the 1.1358 midday high breaks the descending highs and puts the 1.1371 asian high back in play
Holding the 1.1339 pullback low keeps the rebound fib's 78.6% zone near 1.1338 as the active shelf
Fedspeak from Williams (18:00 UTC) and Waller (19:00 UTC), plus ECB's Lane at 18:00 GMT
London broke the Asian range low near 1.1355 and set a london low at 1.1332, just above the 1.1324 ytd low, as Lagarde's dovish tilt and a USD bid on 10Y yields near 5.27% weighed. The bounce stalled at the 1.1358 lower high, which aligns with the 61.8% fib and a retest of the broken Asian low. Price is back under EMA20 and testing the 1.1344 pullback low into the London-NY transition.
Support: 1.1344, 1.1332, 1.1324
Resistance: 1.1358, 1.1371
What it said to watch
JOLTS and US Consumer Confidence at 14:00 GMT, plus Cipollone at 13:15 GMT, could materially shift this read
Failure to hold the 1.1344 pullback low puts the 1.1332 london low back in play
A break of the london low exposes the 1.1324 ytd low
An M15 close above the 1.1358 lower high breaks the descending trendline and opens the 1.1371 asian high
13:01 UTC
Intraday downtrend, corrective bounce in NY · RSI 48 · price 1.13482
Asian range broken lower; higher lows off the London low, capped below the old Asian low.
London broke the Asian low at 1.1355 and slid to a 1.1332 London low as the USD firmed on yields near 2007 highs and Lagarde's dovish tilt. The early-NY bounce retested the broken Asian low and was rejected at a 1.1358 session high. Price is now sitting on a 1.1346 higher low, near the 50% of the London drop.
Support: 1.13455, 1.13322, 1.1324
Resistance: 1.13547, 1.13578
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.1358 session high reclaims the Asian low and neutralises the range break
Failure to hold the 1.1346 higher low breaks the rising trendline and exposes the 1.1332 London low, with the 1.1324 YTD low just below
Cipollone at 13:15 GMT and US JOLTS/Consumer Confidence at 14:00 GMT could materially shift this read
12:47 UTC
Intraday rebound after London selloff, stalling · RSI 53 · price 1.13508
Higher-low chain off 1.1332; capped on retest of broken Asian low.
London broke the Asian low and extended to 1.1332, just above the 1.1324 ytd low, with USD bid on yields and a dovish Lagarde read. The rebound has retraced over 61.8% of the London drop fib and printed higher lows, but stalled at 1.1358 on the retest of the broken asian low. EMA50 sits near 1.1353 and RSI(14) is neutral at 53 in the London-NY transition.
Support: 1.1349, 1.1332, 1.1324
Resistance: 1.1355, 1.1366
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the asian low and 1.1358 rebound high opens the 1.1366 swing high
Break of the 1.1349 higher low and rebound trendline ends the HL chain and exposes the 1.1332 london low
A clean break of the 1.1324 ytd low would extend the London leg
Cipollone 13:15 GMT and US JOLTS 14:00 UTC could shift this read, followed by Fedspeak into the NY session
12:16 UTC
London selloff, rebounding into resistance · RSI 56 · price 1.13521
Higher lows off 1.1332 low, testing broken Asian low.
London broke below the 1.1355–1.1371 Asian range on the USD yield bid and Lagarde's dovish lean, printing a session low at 1.1332 just above the 1.1324 YTD low. Since then a higher-low sequence has lifted price back to the 50% retracement and the broken Asian low near 1.1355, where EMA50 also sits.
Support: 1.1346, 1.1332, 1.1324
Resistance: 1.1355, 1.1371
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1355 Asian low reopens the range toward the 1.1371 Asian high
Loss of the 1.1346 higher low breaks the rebound trendline and puts the 1.1332 session low back in play
A break of the 1.1324 YTD low would extend the London leg lower
ECB's Cipollone at 13:15 UTC and US JOLTS at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Asian range broken lower; higher lows off session low under flat cap.
London broke the 1.1355 Asian low at the open and extended to a 1.1332 session low, just above the 1.1324 YTD low, as dovish ECB repricing and US 10Y yields at 2007 highs weighed on EUR. Late London has retraced 50% of the London drop from 1.1366 with higher lows near the ema20 at 1.1344, but supply is capping a flat 1.1350 rebound cap. RSI(14) sits neutral near 50.
Support: 1.1344, 1.1332, 1.1324
Resistance: 1.1350, 1.1355, 1.1371
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1350 rebound cap opens the 61.8% of the London drop and a retest of the 1.1355 Asian low from below
Reclaiming the Asian range above 1.1355 would neutralise the London range break, with the 1.1371 Asian high as the range top
Loss of the 1.1344 higher low puts the 1.1332 session low back in play; below that, the 1.1324 YTD low
ECB's Cipollone (13:15 UTC) and US JOLTS (14:00 UTC) in the first hours of NY could materially shift this read
Lower highs; London broke the Asian range low and is now consolidating below it.
London broke the Asian low at 1.1355 and extended to a 1.1332 session low, holding just above the 1.1324 ytd low as the USD bid on 5.27% US 10Y yields persisted. The bounce capped twice at 1.1349, the bounce high and the 50% retracement of the 1.1366–1.1332 leg, through Lagarde's 11:00 UTC speech. Mid-London, price is hugging EMA20 with RSI(14) near 50 and ATR around 5 pips.
Support: 1.1332, 1.1324
Resistance: 1.1349, 1.1355, 1.1372
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1355 asian low reclaims the broken range and breaks the lower-high chain; the asian high at 1.1372 sits beyond
Failure at the 1.1349 bounce high followed by a break of the 1.1332 session low exposes the 1.1324 ytd low
Cipollone 13:15 UTC, JOLTS 14:00 UTC into the NY open and Lane 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Asian range broken lower in London; lower highs into 1.1332 session low, now retracing.
London broke below the Asian low at 1.1355 on the 07:30 UTC leg and pressed to a 1.1332 session low, just shy of the 1.1324 YTD low, as broad USD strength persisted. The bounce into Lagarde's 11:00 UTC speech has stalled at the 1.1349 bounce high, the 50% retracement of the London leg fib, with price just back above EMA20.
Support: 1.1332, 1.1324
Resistance: 1.1349, 1.1355, 1.1371
What it said to watch
Lagarde (11:00 UTC) keeping October live after the hot Spanish CPI could carry price back above the 1.1355 Asian low, which would put the 1.1371 Asian high back in play
Rejection at the 1.1349 bounce high and a close below the 1.1332 session low would resume the lower-low chain toward the 1.1324 YTD low
US JOLTS at 14:00 UTC and Musalem at 11:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs since 06:00 UTC, Asian range broken lower, bounce off session low.
London broke below the Asian low at 1.1355 and extended to a 1.1332 session low, just above the 1.1324 YTD low. USD strength outweighed the hot Spanish CPI print. The late-London bounce is now pressing the ema20 near 1.1346 and the 38.2% retrace of the London drop, with the lower high at 1.1352 still capping.
Support: 1.1332, 1.1324
Resistance: 1.1346, 1.1352, 1.1355
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1352 lower high breaks the London lower-high sequence and puts the asian low at 1.1355 back in play
Failure back through the 1.1332 session low exposes the 1.1324 YTD low
Lagarde speech at 11:00 UTC: a nod to hot Spanish inflation could extend the bounce; a dovish repeat could resume the London drop
US JOLTS at 14:00 UTC during NY hours could materially shift this read
10:46 UTC
Downtrend, bouncing off day low · RSI 32 · price 1.13424
Lower highs and lower lows since London open; price retesting the broken 1.1343 shelf from below.
London broke the 1.1355 Asian low at 07:30 UTC and stepped down to a 1.1332 day low, with USD firm on hawkish Fed pricing and EUR soft after Lagarde's dovish tilt. Price is now bouncing into the 1.1343 broken shelf with RSI(14) near 32. The 1.1352 London lower high (london LH) sits at the 50% level of the Asian-high-to-day-low fib.
Support: 1.13322, 1.1315
Resistance: 1.1343, 1.13521, 1.13547
What it said to watch
Lagarde speaks at 11:00 UTC. A nod to the hot Spanish CPI could lift EUR through the 1.1343 broken shelf, while a dovish repeat keeps the day low in play
An M15 close above the 1.1352 London lower high breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 1.1355 Asian low back in view
Failure to hold the 1.1332 day low confirms a lower low, with flagged support at 1.1315 below
JOLTS and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC during NY hours could reset the session range
Lower highs and lower lows since London open, Asian range broken lower.
London broke the Asian low near 1.1355 and yesterday's prior low at 1.1353, then stepped lower under a descending line of lower highs. USD stays firm on 10Y yields near 5.27%, and EUR is soft despite the hot Spanish CPI. Price is pinned at the 1.1332 session low with RSI(14) near 24, ahead of Lagarde at 11:00 UTC.
Support: 1.1332, 1.1315
Resistance: 1.1343, 1.1353
What it said to watch
Lagarde speech at 11:00 UTC can reset the read: a hawkish nod to the Spanish CPI could squeeze EUR back above the range floor at 1.1343
Failure to hold the 1.1332 session low exposes the flagged support at 1.1315
A close back above 1.1353 prior low breaks the descending line and invalidates the London downtrend
Musalem 11:30 UTC and JOLTS 14:00 UTC are further USD risk into the NY session
10:01 UTC
Downtrend, oversold · RSI 22 · price 1.13364
Lower highs and lower lows since the Asian range broke at 06:30 UTC.
London broke below the 1.1355 Asian low at 06:30 UTC. The decline from the 1.1371 Asian high extended to a 1.1332 session low, with a chain of lower highs capping each bounce as the firm USD and Lagarde's dovish tilt weigh on EUR. RSI(14) near 22 is stretched, and price is pausing just above the low.
Support: 1.13323, 1.1315
Resistance: 1.13481, 1.13547, 1.13712
What it said to watch
Lagarde speaks at 11:00 UTC. A hawkish nod to the hot Spanish CPI could squeeze price back toward the 1.1355 asian low.
An M15 close above the 1.1348 lower high breaks the lower-high line and the chain of lower highs.
Failure to hold the 1.1332 session low exposes 1.1315 key support.
Fedspeak from 11:30 UTC and JOLTS at 14:00 UTC add USD event risk to this read.
09:46 UTC
Downtrend, stretched · RSI 20 · price 1.13343
Lower highs from the 1.1366 spike high; Asian range and prior low broken during London.
London broke below the Asian range and the 1.1353 prior low, then pressed to a 1.1333 session low on a string of lower highs from the 1.1366 spike high. The slide tracks Lagarde's dovish tilt and firm US yields. RSI(14) near 20 is stretched ahead of her 11:00 UTC speech, roughly 90 minutes out.
Support: 1.1333, 1.1315
Resistance: 1.1340, 1.1353, 1.1366
What it said to watch
Lagarde at 11:00 UTC is the main risk; a hawkish nod to Spain's 5.0% HICP could trigger a squeeze off the session low
M15 close back above the 1.1353 prior low (near the 61.8% retracement) negates the breakdown and returns price to the Asian range
A push through the 1.1340 lower high would be the first break in the lower-highs sequence
Failure to hold the 1.1333 session low exposes 1.1315 key support; a reclaim of the 1.1366 spike high would undo the London move
US JOLTS at 14:00 UTC and afternoon Fedspeak could extend or reverse the move
09:16 UTC
Downtrend, pausing after London leg lower · RSI 36 · price 1.13473
Asian range broken lower; tight base under range top.
London broke the Asian range, taking out the asian low at 1.1355 and yesterday's 1.1353 swing low, and extended to a london low at 1.1342 as USD firmness on 5.27% 10Y yields outweighed the hot Spain HICP. Mid-London, price has been compressing between 1.1343 and the 1.1352 range top, just under the 38.2% fib of the London drop. RSI(14) is near 36, soft but not oversold.
Support: 1.13424, 1.1315
Resistance: 1.13521, 1.13547, 1.13712
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1352 range top and 38.2% fib reopens the asian low at 1.1355
Failure to hold the 1.1342 london low extends the lower-low sequence toward next support at 1.1315
Asian high at 1.1371 caps the broader intraday structure; a move back there negates the range-break read
EC sentiment (09:00 UTC) and Lagarde at 11:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Musalem 11:30 UTC and JOLTS 14:00 UTC are the NY-session risk
08:46 UTC
Downtrend, pausing near lows · RSI 29 · price 1.13456
Lower highs; Asian low broken, tight post-break range.
London broke the Asian low at 1.1355 and the late-July low near 1.1350. USD strength outweighed Spain's hot 5.0% HICP, and the drop printed a 1.1342 london low. Price is now compressing between 1.1342 and a 1.1352 range top, under the lower highs trendline and below the overnight drop's 38.2% at 1.1353, with RSI(14) near 29 and ATR around 5 pips.
Support: 1.13424, 1.1315
Resistance: 1.13521, 1.13547, 1.13661
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1352 range top and 1.1355 asian low shifts focus to the 1.1366 lower high
Failure to hold the 1.1342 london low opens the 1.1315 july support
EC sentiment at 09:00 UTC and Lagarde at 11:00 UTC could materially shift this read
JOLTS at 14:00 UTC and heavy Fedspeak from 11:30 UTC are further USD risk
08:31 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through Asia into London · RSI 35 · price 1.13477
Asian range low and Monday low broken at London open; shallow bounce capped below 1.1352.
London open broke below the Asian range and Monday low at 1.1353, printing a session low at 1.1342 as oil- and yield-driven USD strength outweighed the hot Spain CPI. The rebound has stalled near 1.1352, around the 38.2% fib of the drop from the 1.1366 swing high, with lower highs from the 1.1371 Asian high intact and RSI(14) near 35.
Support: 1.13424, 1.1315
Resistance: 1.1353, 1.13661, 1.13712
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the Monday low at 1.1353 would mark the break as a false break
Clean break of the 1.1342 session low leaves 1.1315 as the next support
Close above the 1.1366 swing high breaks the lower-highs trendline
EZ ESI at 09:00 UTC and Lagarde at 11:00 UTC could materially shift this read
08:16 UTC
Downtrend, extending lower at London open · RSI 34 · price 1.13497
Lower highs through Asia, Asian range broken to the downside.
London open broke the Asian low at 1.1355 and the prior NY low. It tagged a 1.1342 session low before stabilising near the 1.1350 late-July low, and the hot Spain CPI print has done nothing for EUR so far. Asia printed a lower high at 1.1366 under the 1.1371 Asian high; RSI(14) sits near 34, soft but not oversold.
Support: 1.13424, 1.1315
Resistance: 1.13547, 1.13661, 1.13712
What it said to watch
Recovery back above the 1.1355 Asian low would turn the London break into a false break
Failure to hold the 1.1342 session low exposes 1.1315 next support
Close above the descending highs line near the 1.1366 lower high negates the lower-high sequence toward the 1.1371 Asian high
EZ ESI at 09:00 UTC and Lagarde at 11:00 UTC could materially shift this read
08:01 UTC
Downtrend, extended at the early-London low · RSI 31 · price 1.1349
Lower highs through Asia, London open broke the Asian low and prior-day low.
Early London hours: after the Asian session printed lower highs, the London open broke through the asian low at 1.1354 and the prior-day low at 1.1353, reaching a session low of 1.1342 before settling at 1.1349, right on the late-July low near 1.1350. The hot Spain CPI beat has not lifted EUR, and the 1.1366 spike high is the top of the drop being retraced on the London drop fib. RSI(14) is near 31, not yet at extreme.
Support: 1.1342, 1.1315
Resistance: 1.1354, 1.1366
What it said to watch
A close back above the asian low at 1.1354 (near the London drop fib 50%) would mark the break as a false break
Failure to hold the 1.1342 session low leaves 1.1315 as the next support
A move above the 1.1366 spike high and the Asia lower-highs trendline invalidates the intraday downtrend read
EZ ESI at 09:00 UTC and Lagarde at 11:00 UTC could shift this read, as could JOLTS at 14:00 UTC
07:46 UTC
Downtrend, extending into London open · RSI 28 · price 1.13503
Lower highs from the 1.1374 Asian high; Asian range and Monday low broken to the downside.
London open extended the Asian drift lower. It took out the asian low at 1.1355 and Monday's 1.1353 low to print 1.1350, level with the july low, as the USD yield bid overrode the Spain CPI beat (4.9% vs 4.7%). Lower highs have held since the 1.1366 pre-London high, with RSI(14) at 28.
Support: 1.1350, 1.1315
Resistance: 1.13547, 1.13661
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the asian low at 1.1355 would turn the break into a false break
Sustained trade below the 1.1350 july low puts 1.1315, the next support, in focus
A move back through the 50% fib of the asian high move (~1.1362) and the 1.1366 pre-London high breaks the lower-high sequence
EZ ESI and Consumer Confidence at 09:00 UTC, then Lagarde at 11:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
US JOLTS at 14:00 UTC and Fed speakers from 11:30 UTC are the next USD risk
07:31 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs through Asia · RSI 43 · price 1.13577
Lower-high chain from the 1.1371 Asian high; lows pressing Monday's 1.1353 low.
Asia slid from the 1.1371 asian high in a string of lower highs to a session low at 1.1355, just above the 1.1353 Monday low, and the 06:00 UTC bounce to 1.1366 met rejection at the descending trendline. Early London, the Spain CPI beat has not lifted EUR against firm US yields. Price sits back near the lows with RSI(14) ~43 and ATR a tight ~3.6 pips.
Support: 1.13547, 1.13529, 1.1350
Resistance: 1.13661, 1.13712, 1.13876
What it said to watch
Break of the 1.1355 session low and 1.1353 Monday low exposes the 1.1350 round number (late-July low), extending the lower-low sequence
M15 close above the 1.1366 bounce high and the descending trendline breaks the lower-high chain; 1.1371 asian high next, then Monday's 1.1388 spike high
EZ ESI / Consumer Confidence at 09:00 UTC and Lagarde at 11:00 UTC could materially shift this read
JOLTS and US Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC are the next US-side risk
Lower-high sequence from Monday's NY spike; Asian session low at 1.1355 held above Monday low.
Early London session: Asia ground lower to a 1.1355 Asian low, just above the 1.1353 Monday low, as the USD bid on yields and oil persisted. The 06:00 UTC pop stalled at the 1.1366 bounce high on the descending trendline from Monday's NY spike, and price is back just under EMA20 with RSI(14) near 47.
Support: 1.13547, 1.13529, 1.1350
Resistance: 1.13661, 1.13739
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1366 bounce high and descending trendline breaks the lower-high chain, opening the 1.1374 Asian high
Failure to hold the 1.1355 Asian low exposes the 1.1353 Monday low and the 1.1350 July low
HICP at 07:00 UTC and Lagarde at 11:00 UTC could materially shift this read; JOLTS at 14:00 UTC during NY hours
Asian lower highs broken by 06:00 UTC impulse, basing above Monday low.
Monday's NY spike to 1.13876 on the Iran sanctions-relief headline fully faded. Asia then ground lower in lower highs to the 1.13547 asian low, just shy of the 1.13529 monday low and the 1.1350 july low. A 06:00 UTC impulse broke the Asian descending trendline, and price is now stalling under the 1.13661 bounce high into London open, with RSI(14) near 46 and ATR around 3.4 pips.
Support: 1.13547, 1.13529, 1.1350
Resistance: 1.13661, 1.13717, 1.13876
What it said to watch
Eurozone HICP at 07:00 UTC (10:00 broker) lands on the London open and could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 1.13661 bounce high and the 1.13717 asian high (near the 50% of the spike-to-low fib) extends the recovery from the lows
Failure back below the 1.13547 asian low exposes the 1.13529 monday low and 1.1350 july low
Lagarde at 11:00 UTC and JOLTS at 14:00 UTC are later risk; a retest of the 1.13876 ny spike needs a hawkish ECB surprise
06:46 UTC
Downtrend, bouncing off lows · RSI 45 · price 1.13632
Asian lower-high chain broken; bounce stalling below ema50.
Asia ground lower in a chain of lower highs from the 1.1374 asian high to the 1.1355 asian low, stopping just above the 1.1353 monday low near the late-July 1.1350 floor. The 06:00 UTC bar broke the asian trendline, but the bounce high at 1.1366 capped it at the ema50 and the 61.8% of the asian fib. Price is sitting on EMA20 into London open, with EUR under pressure from oil and US yields.
Support: 1.13547, 1.13529
Resistance: 1.13661, 1.13739, 1.13903
What it said to watch
Eurozone HICP at 07:00 UTC, right at London open, could materially shift this read
A close back below the 1.1355 asian low and the 1.1353 monday low confirms a lower-low through the July floor
M15 close above the 1.1366 bounce high and ema50 opens the 1.1374 asian high
Acceptance above the asian high puts the 1.1388–1.1390 area and the monday high back in play
Lagarde at 11:00 UTC is the next scheduled risk to the structure
06:31 UTC
Intraday downtrend, early bounce · RSI 44 · price 1.13631
Asian lower highs and lower lows; Frankfurt-open bar broke the LH trendline.
Asia ground out lower highs and lower lows to the 1.13547 asian low, just above yesterday's 1.13529 ny low, as USD held firm on 5%+ US yields. The 06:00 UTC bar snapped the Asian trendline and is now sitting at the 50–61.8% fib, near 1.1363–1.1365. Price is hugging EMA20 but sits below EMA50, with RSI(14) near 44 ahead of the London open.
Support: 1.13547, 1.13529, 1.1350
Resistance: 1.13661, 1.13712, 1.13903
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.13547 asian low and 1.13529 ny low resumes the lower-low sequence toward the 1.1350 july low
Acceptance above the 1.13661 bounce high and 1.13712 asian high breaks intraday downtrend structure, exposing the 1.1390 prior high
Eurozone HICP at 07:00 UTC and Lagarde at 11:00 UTC could materially shift this read
US JOLTS at 14:00 UTC and Fedspeak during NY hours are the next USD-side risk
06:16 UTC
Intraday downtrend, grinding lower through Asia · RSI 33 · price 1.13567
Lower-high chain from 1.1371 Asia high, sitting just above prior low.
The Asia session has unwound Monday's Iran-headline NY spike to 1.1388, stepping lower from the 1.1371 Asia high in a clean lower-high sequence under a descending trendline as USD yields stay firm. Price is at 1.1357 with London opening in an hour, a few pips above Monday's 1.1353 prior low and the 1.1350 late-July low. RSI(14) sits at 33, not yet oversold.
Support: 1.13529, 1.1350
Resistance: 1.13603, 1.13712, 1.13876
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1353 prior low and 1.1350 july low extends the lower-low chain into the London session
Close above the 1.1360 lower high breaks the Asia trendline. The 50% retrace of the ny spike move coincides with the 1.1371 asia high
Eurozone HICP at 07:00 UTC and Lagarde at 11:00 UTC could materially shift this read
JOLTS and heavy Fedspeak from 14:00 UTC keep NY-hours volatility risk elevated
06:01 UTC
Downtrend, grinding lower through Asia · RSI 26 · price 1.13561
Lower highs and lower lows since 02:15 UTC; price testing prior-day low.
Late Asia session with a steady chain of lower highs from 1.1371. Price is pressing the 1.1353 prior low set during NY hours, with USD firm on 5%+ yields and $100 oil. RSI(14) sits near 26, not extreme, and London open is next with HICP and Lagarde on the slate.
Support: 1.13529, 1.1350
Resistance: 1.13636, 1.13739
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1353 prior low opens the 1.1350 july low flagged in the digest
Close above the asia trendline and the 1.1364 lower high breaks the lower-high chain
Reclaim of the 1.1374 asian high negates the Asia downtrend read
HICP at 07:00 UTC and Lagarde at 11:00 UTC could materially shift this read; JOLTS at 14:00 UTC later
05:46 UTC
Downtrend, grinding lower through Asia · RSI 29 · price 1.13594
Lower highs from 1.1388 spike high; asian low at 1.1359 sits just above 1.1353 swing low.
Late Asia has extended the lower-high sequence from yesterday's 1.1388 spike high under a descending trendline. Price broke the 1.1362 range floor and printed a fresh asian low at 1.1359, with RSI(14) near 29 and ATR compressed to about 2.6 pips ahead of the London open. Price is 6 pips above yesterday's 1.1353 swing low, the late-July low zone the digest flags as pivotal while Fed-hike bets and oil weigh on EUR.
Support: 1.1359, 1.1353
Resistance: 1.1362, 1.1371, 1.1388
What it said to watch
Eurozone HICP at 07:00 GMT lands at the London open and could move price well beyond the current 2.6-pip ATR
M15 close below the 1.1353 swing low confirms a lower-low below the late-July low
Recovery back above the 1.1362 range floor and the asian high at 1.1371 would break the descending trendline and the lower-high sequence
Lagarde at 11:00 GMT and US JOLTS at 14:00 UTC could reset the intraday read
Lower highs and lower lows through Asia, holding above the prior low.
Late Asia session, ahead of London open. Monday's NY spike to 1.1388 fully faded, and the Asian session has stepped lower from the 1.1371 Asia high to a fresh Asia low at 1.1359. RSI(14) is near 36 and ATR is only about 2.5 pips, a slow tape sitting just above the 1.1353 prior low and the 1.1350 July low flagged in the EUR digest.
Support: 1.13589, 1.13529, 1.1350
Resistance: 1.13636, 1.13712, 1.13876
What it said to watch
A break of the 1.1359 Asia low and then the 1.1353 prior low puts the 1.1350 July low in play
An M15 close above the 1.1364 lower high and the descending trendline breaks the Asian lower-high chain, with the 1.1371 Asia high next and the 1.1388 NY spike beyond
Eurozone HICP at 07:00 GMT and Lagarde at 11:00 GMT could expand the range sharply around the London open
US JOLTS and Fedspeak from 14:00 UTC are the NY-session risk for this read
05:16 UTC
Downtrend, grinding lower in late Asia · RSI 31 · price 1.13597
Lower highs through Asia, range low broken.
Late Asia session has slipped through the asian low at 1.1362 on a run of lower highs, printing a session low at 1.1359 with ATR(14) compressed near 3 pips. The ny low at 1.1353 and the 1.1350 july low sit just below, while the USD bid on oil-driven Fed repricing keeps supply capping each bounce.
Support: 1.13589, 1.13529, 1.1350
Resistance: 1.13624, 1.13712, 1.13876
What it said to watch
Recovery back above the asian low at 1.1362 would turn the break into a false break
M15 close above the asian high at 1.1371 clears the lower-highs trendline and reclaims the Asian range
Close below the ny low at 1.1353 exposes the 1.1350 july low; NY spike high at 1.1388 caps the 24h range
Eurozone HICP at 07:00 GMT and Lagarde at 11:00 GMT could materially shift this read; JOLTS at 14:00 UTC on the USD side
Late Asia session is grinding lower in a lower-high sequence off Monday's 1.1388 spike high. Price is back at the 1.1360 Asian low, below both EMAs, with RSI(14) near 34, on a descending trendline. The prior low at 1.1353 from Monday's NY session is the next reference, with EUR heavy on Lagarde's 'measured' line and oil-driven USD demand.
Support: 1.13598, 1.13529, 1.1350
Resistance: 1.13712, 1.13876, 1.1400
What it said to watch
M15 close below the asian low at 1.1360 exposes the prior low at 1.1353 and the 1.1350 psych level (late-July low)
Break above the asian high at 1.1371 and the descending trendline invalidates the lower-high sequence
Eurozone HICP at 07:00 GMT lands on London open and could materially shift this read; Lagarde at 11:00 GMT is the next risk
Recovery through the spike high at 1.1388 reopens the 1.1400 round number
04:46 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 39 · price 1.13629
Lower highs from 1.1390; Asia range broken marginally lower.
Late Asia session: price has made lower highs since the 1.1390 London high. The Asian range was capped near the 50% fib of the London selloff (1.1372) before slipping to a 1.1360 asia low, with RSI(14) near 39 and ATR only ~3 pips. The prior low at 1.1353 sits just above the 1.1350 july low, the pivot flagged as EUR stays heavy on Fed-hike bets and oil.
Support: 1.13598, 1.13529, 1.1350
Resistance: 1.13716, 1.13876, 1.13903
What it said to watch
Break of the 1.1353 prior low exposes the 1.1350 july low
Recovery above the 50% fib at 1.1372 challenges the lower-high sequence, with the ny high at 1.1388 and the london high at 1.1390 above
Eurozone HICP at 07:00 GMT and Lagarde at 11:00 GMT could materially shift this read at London open
US JOLTS at 14:00 UTC is the NY-session risk for a range expansion from the current ~3-pip ATR
04:31 UTC
Intraday downtrend, grinding lower in Asia · RSI 37 · price 1.13616
Lower highs since the 1.1388 spike high, testing the Asian low.
Monday's NY headline spike high at 1.1388 was fully faded. Asia has since stepped down from the 1.1374 Asian high through a lower high at 1.1371, near the 38.2% of the spike fade fib, and price is now pressing the 1.1360 Asian low with RSI(14) near 37 and ATR only about 2.6 pips. Firm USD on record-high yields keeps the NY low at 1.1353 and the 1.1350 July low in view.
Support: 1.13598, 1.13529, 1.1350
Resistance: 1.13712, 1.13739, 1.13876
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1360 Asian low exposes the 1.1353 NY low and the 1.1350 July low
Recovery above the 1.1371 lower high and the descending line breaks the Asian lower-high sequence
London open plus Eurozone HICP at 07:00 GMT (about 2.5h away) could expand the compressed Asian range
Lagarde at 11:00 GMT and US JOLTS at 14:00 UTC are the next event risks for this read
04:16 UTC
Downtrend, grinding lower in late Asia · RSI 33 · price 1.13599
Lower highs through Asia, Asian range low broken.
The NY-session spike to the 1.13876 spike high came on the Iran sanctions-relief report and was fully faded. Asia has since printed lower highs and slipped through the 1.13624 Asian low to 1.1360 ahead of London, with RSI(14) near 33 and ATR at under 3 pips. The 1.13529 day low and the 1.1350 july low sit just below.
Support: 1.13529, 1.1350
Resistance: 1.13624, 1.13712, 1.13876
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.13624 Asian low turns the break into a false break
Acceptance below the 1.13529 day low puts the 1.1350 july low in play
Eurozone HICP at 07:00 GMT (London open) and Lagarde at 11:00 GMT could reverse the Asian drift
Reclaim of the 1.13712 Asian high breaks the lower-highs sequence
JOLTS and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC during NY hours
Late in the Asia session, EUR/USD is pressing the Asian low at 1.1362. Monday's NY headline spike high at 1.1388 faded into a chain of lower highs as Lagarde's 'measured' line and firm US yields weighed. Price sits below both EMAs with RSI(14) near 36, and the Monday low at 1.1353 and the 1.1350 july low sit just beneath.
Support: 1.1362, 1.1353, 1.1350
Resistance: 1.1371, 1.1388
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1362 asian low exposes the 1.1353 monday low and the 1.1350 july low
A break of the lower highs trendline and a close above the 1.1371 asian high would neutralise the drift, with the 1.1388 spike high above
HICP at 07:00 GMT, Lagarde at 11:00 GMT and US JOLTS at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
03:46 UTC
Downtrend, compressing in late Asia · RSI 44 · price 1.1365
Lower highs since NY spike, tight Asian range.
Monday's NY spike to the 1.1388 spike high on the Iran sanctions-relief report met full rejection, leaving a lower-highs sequence and a 1.1362–1.1371 Asian range. The Asian range sits just above the 1.1353 prior low and the 1.1350 july low. ATR near 3 pips reflects a quiet late-Asia tape ahead of HICP and Lagarde.
Support: 1.1362, 1.1353, 1.1350
Resistance: 1.1371, 1.1388
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1362 asian low exposes the 1.1353 prior low and the 1.1350 july low
Close above the 1.1371 asian high breaks the lower-highs trendline; 1.1388 spike high is the next reference
Eurozone HICP at 07:00 UTC and Lagarde at 11:00 UTC could materially shift this read, with US JOLTS at 14:00 UTC
03:31 UTC
Flat to heavy, lower highs since NY · RSI 44 · price 1.13663
Tight Asian range inside yesterday's 1.1353–1.1390 range.
Late Asia session, and EURUSD is pinned inside a 9-pip Asian range (1.13624–1.13712). It sits at the 61.8% spike retrace of the NY bounce from the 1.13529 day low to the 1.13876 spike high, which faded on the Iran-sanctions headline with no follow-through. Price is below EMA20/50 and ATR(14) has compressed to ~3 pips ahead of London open, with the day low sitting just above the 1.1350 late-July low flagged in the digest.
Support: 1.13624, 1.13529
Resistance: 1.13712, 1.13876
What it said to watch
Break of the asian low at 1.13624 exposes the 1.13529 day low and the 1.1350 late-July low
Recovery above the asian high at 1.13712 reopens the path toward the 1.13876 spike high
Eurozone HICP 07:00 UTC and Lagarde 11:00 UTC could break the Asian range; crowded EUR shorts add squeeze risk on a hawkish lean
US JOLTS 14:00 UTC and the Fed speaker slate could materially shift this read during NY hours
Late Asia is compressing inside a 1.1362–1.1374 Asian range. Price is capped by the lower highs line from the 1.1388 NY high, while higher lows hold off Monday's 1.1353 prior low, near the 1.1350 late-July level flagged in the EUR digest. Price sits on the 38.2% fib of the 1.1390–1.1353 drop, with RSI(14) near 42 and ATR(14) around 3 pips ahead of London.
Support: 1.13624, 1.13529
Resistance: 1.13739, 1.13876
What it said to watch
Break of the asian low at 1.1362 and the higher lows line re-exposes the prior low at 1.1353 and 1.1350.
M15 close above the asian high at 1.1374 clears the lower highs line; the ny high at 1.1388 is the next reference.
Eurozone HICP at 07:00 UTC and Lagarde at 11:00 UTC could break the compression; the hawkish-surprise risk is amplified by crowded EUR shorts.
US JOLTS at 14:00 UTC and the Fed speaker slate could shift the NY session read.
The NY spike to 1.1388 was rejected and set the first of a series of lower highs. Asia is now pinned mid-range between the 1.1362 Asian low and 1.1374 Asian high, with ATR near 3 pips. The oil-driven USD bid keeps the NY low at 1.1353 and the 1.1350 July low in view.
Support: 1.13624, 1.13529, 1.1350
Resistance: 1.13739, 1.13876, 1.13903
What it said to watch
Close below the 1.1362 asian low exposes the 1.1353 ny low and 1.1350 july low
Close above the 1.1374 asian high and the lower-highs trendline invalidates the compression read, next the 1.1388 ny spike and 1.1390 prior high
Eurozone HICP at 07:00 UTC lands at London open and could break the Asian range
Lagarde at 11:00 UTC and US JOLTS at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
02:46 UTC
Downtrend, pausing in Asia · RSI 46 · price 1.13688
Lower highs from 1.1390; Asian range 1.1362–1.1374.
Monday's London and NY sessions printed lower highs and a 1.1353 day low near the late-July 1.1350 pivot. Oil-driven USD strength and Lagarde's 'measured hikes' line weighed, and the NY high at 1.1388 faded fully. Asia is compressing inside a 1.1362–1.1374 Asian range at the 38.2% retracement, with RSI(14) neutral near 46 and ATR only 3 pips.
Support: 1.13624, 1.13529
Resistance: 1.13739, 1.13876
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1374 Asian high breaks the lower-high sequence from the lower-high line
Failure to hold the 1.1362 Asian low exposes the 1.1353 day low and the 1.1350 pivot
Reclaim of the 1.1388 NY high invalidates the downtrend read
Eurozone HICP at 07:00 UTC and Lagarde at 11:00 UTC could materially shift this read
02:31 UTC
Intraday downtrend, pausing in Asia · RSI 46 · price 1.13694
Lower highs from 1.1390; tight Asian range above Monday's 1.1353 low.
Monday's London-NY slide tagged the prior low at 1.1353, level with the late-July low, as oil-driven Treasury yields firmed the dollar. The NY rebound stalled at a lower high near 1.1388. Asia is ranging 1.1362–1.1374 with price mid-range, RSI(14) neutral and ATR under 3 pips.
Support: 1.1362, 1.1353
Resistance: 1.1374, 1.1388
What it said to watch
Close below the 1.1362 asian low puts the 1.1353 prior low back in play; a break there extends the lower-low sequence
Close above the 1.1374 asian high and the lower-highs trendline shifts focus to the 1.1388 lower high
Eurozone HICP at 07:00 UTC around London open could break the Asian range
Lagarde at 11:00 UTC, plus Fedspeak from 11:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
02:16 UTC
Intraday downtrend, pausing in early Asia · RSI 41 · price 1.13669
Tight range above Monday low, capped below 1.1374.
Monday's Asian range (1.1384–1.1391) broke lower at London open as Lagarde's 'measured hikes' line and firm US yields weighed. The NY spike to 1.1388 on Iran sanctions-relief reports was rejected, and the 1.1353 Monday low held. Early Asia is compressing between the 1.1362 Asian low and 1.1374 Asian high, around the 38.2% level of the Monday range fib, with RSI(14) near 41 and price just under both EMAs.
Support: 1.13624, 1.13529, 1.1350
Resistance: 1.13739, 1.13876, 1.13909
What it said to watch
Break of the 1.1362 Asian low exposes the 1.1353 Monday low and the 1.1350 July low
M15 close above the 1.1374 Asian high reopens the 1.1388 NY spike high and the 1.1391 Monday high
Eurozone HICP (07:00 UTC) and Lagarde (11:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
02:01 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since NY spike · RSI 43 · price 1.13669
Lower highs from 1.13876; Asia boxed 1.13624–1.13739.
Monday's sell-off from the London high at 1.1390 reached a monday low of 1.13529 in NY, at the 1.1350 late-July low, before Iran sanctions-relief reports lifted the pair to 1.13876. Since then the pair has printed lower highs, and early Asia is holding a quiet 1.13624–1.13739 range. Price sits on the 61.8% retracement of the NY rebound, below both EMAs, with ATR near 2.6 pips.
Support: 1.13624, 1.13529
Resistance: 1.13739, 1.13876
What it said to watch
M15 close below the asian low at 1.13624 reopens the monday low at 1.13529 and the 1.1350 July low
Close above the asian high at 1.13739 breaks the lower highs line; the ny high at 1.13876 is the next reference
Eurozone HICP at 07:00 UTC and Lagarde at 11:00 UTC could materially shift this read
01:46 UTC
Downtrend, compressing in Asia · RSI 42 · price 1.13674
Lower highs from 1.1388 spike high; tight Asian range above 1.1353 session low.
London and NY pressed EURUSD from the 1.1391 Monday high to a 1.1353 session low as Lagarde's 'measured' line and oil-driven US yields weighed. The Iran sanctions-relief headline spiked price to a 1.1388 spike high, but that move met rejection and fully faded. Early Tuesday, Asia is holding a tight 1.1362–1.1374 range beneath the lower-highs line, with ATR(14) near 3 pips.
Support: 1.13624, 1.13529, 1.1350
Resistance: 1.13739, 1.13876, 1.13909
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1374 Asian high breaks the lower-highs line
Failure to hold the 1.1362 Asian low reopens the 1.1353 session low and the 1.1350 psych level
EZ HICP at 07:00 UTC and Lagarde at 11:00 UTC could materially shift this read around London open
A reclaim of the 1.1388 spike high would negate the faded-rally read
01:31 UTC
Downtrend, compressing in early Asia · RSI 44 · price 1.13669
Lower highs since the rejected spike; tight Asian range.
Monday's slide printed a 1.1353 NY low before the Iran sanctions-relief headline lifted price to the 1.1388 spike high. That spike was fully rejected, and price now sits on the 61.8% of the spike fib near 1.1366. Early Asia session is compressing between the 1.1362 Asian low and 1.1374 Asian high beneath a lower highs line, with RSI(14) at 44 and ATR around 3 pips.
Support: 1.13624, 1.13529, 1.1350
Resistance: 1.13739, 1.13876
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1362 asian low exposes the 1.1353 ny low and the 1.1350 psych level
Break above the 1.1374 asian high and the lower highs line challenges the fade from the 1.1388 spike high
Eurozone HICP at 07:00 UTC (~5.5h) and Lagarde at 11:00 UTC could materially shift this read
01:16 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs, compressing in Asia · RSI 45 · price 1.13656
Lower highs from London high; Asian range above NY low.
Early Asia is pinned just above the 1.1362 Asian low after rejection at the 1.1374 Asian high. Highs are stepping lower from the 1.1390 London high to the 1.1388 spike high, which faded after the Iran sanctions headlines. The 1.1353 NY low still holds above the 1.1350 psych level the macro digest flags as pivotal after Lagarde's 'measured' line; ATR is only ~3 pips, a compressed range.
Support: 1.13624, 1.13529, 1.1350
Resistance: 1.13739, 1.13876, 1.13903
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1362 asian low exposes the 1.1353 ny low and 1.1350 psych
Close above the 1.1374 asian high breaks the lower-highs trendline and puts the 1.1388 spike high back in play
A move through the 1.1390 london high invalidates the intraday lower-highs sequence
Eurozone HICP at 07:00 UTC and Lagarde at 11:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower-high sequence after faded spike; Asia range slipping.
Monday's London selloff from 1.1390 set a swing low at 1.1353 early in the NY session. A spike high at 1.1388, likely on the Iran sanctions-easing headlines, met rejection near the 78.6% fib and was fully faded, leaving lower highs under the trendline. Asia has slipped from its 1.1374 high to a 1.1362 low, with RSI(14) near 44 and ATR about 3 pips, so the drift is quiet rather than impulsive.
Support: 1.1362, 1.1353, 1.1350
Resistance: 1.1374, 1.1388
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1362 asian low exposes the 1.1353 swing low and the 1.1350 summer low
M15 close above the 1.1374 asian high breaks the lower-high trendline and the lower-high sequence
Recovery through the 1.1388 spike high invalidates the downtrend read
Eurozone HICP (07:00 UTC) and Lagarde (11:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
Lower highs under descending trendline; thin Asia drift toward NY low.
Monday's London open broke below the prior Asian range. NY extended the decline to the 1.1353 NY low, just above the 1.1350 July low, and the sanctions-headline spike high at 1.1388 was rejected under the descending trendline. Tuesday's Asia session has slipped to a new Asian low at 1.1365, below EMA20/50, with RSI(14) near 40 and ATR about 3 pips in thin trade.
Support: 1.13647, 1.13529, 1.1350
Resistance: 1.13739, 1.13876
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1365 Asian low puts the 1.1353 NY low and 1.1350 July low back in play
Recovery above the 1.1374 Asian high, then the 1.1388 spike high, would break the descending trendline read
Price is holding below the 38.2% level of the London-NY decline; a reclaim of that fib zone would ease the lower-high structure
Eurozone HICP at 07:00 UTC, coinciding with the London open, could materially shift this read; Lagarde follows at 11:00 UTC
00:16 UTC
Sideways after an intraday selloff, momentum flat · RSI 48 · price 1.13699
Lower highs off 1.1388 spike high, higher lows off 1.1353 day low; tight Asian range.
Monday's London session broke below the Asian range to a 1.1353 day low. A NY-hours spike to the 1.1388 spike high faded as Lagarde's 'middle path' line and $100+ Brent kept EUR heavy. Early Asia is compressing in a 9-pip band between the 1.1365 range low and the 1.1374 range top, on higher lows, with price parked at the 50% retrace of the spike and RSI(14) near 48.
Support: 1.13644, 1.13529
Resistance: 1.13739, 1.13876
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1374 range top opens the path back toward the 1.1388 spike high
Loss of the 1.1365 range low breaks the higher-lows line and exposes the 1.1353 day low and the 1.1350 area
Eurozone HICP at 07:00 UTC and Lagarde at 11:00 UTC could materially shift this read
US JOLTS at 14:00 UTC is the next USD-side risk in NY hours
Tight early-Asia range 1.1365–1.1374 inside the 1.1353–1.1388 NY range; lower highs capping.
NY session tagged the 1.1353 day low near the 1.1350 summer low, then a 16:15 UTC spike to the 1.1388 spike high on the Iran sanctions-relief report was faded. The rejection kept the lower highs intact. Early Asia is holding the 50% fib of that leg, with the 1.1365 swing low at the 61.8% level and the 1.1374 asia high capping, while ATR has shrunk to about 2.6 pips.
Support: 1.1365, 1.1353
Resistance: 1.1374, 1.1388
What it said to watch
A close above the 1.1374 asia high opens the path to the 1.1388 spike high and the lower highs line
Failure to hold the 1.1365 swing low (61.8% fib) exposes the 1.1353 day low and the 1.1350 area
Eurozone HICP at 07:00 UTC and Lagarde at 11:00 UTC could materially shift this read, as could fresh US-Iran oil headlines