EUR/USD AI Live Scan, daily chart, Tuesday, 29 September 2026

Every read JAFX AI made on the EUR/USD daily chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.

22:39 UTC

Downtrend since late August, RSI near oversold · RSI 30 · price 1.13688

Lower highs from 1.1711, pressing the 4-month base.

Month-long downtrend from the 21 Aug 1.1711 high, with a lower high at 1.1654 on 9 Sep and a full retracement of the August rally. Price sits below both EMA20 and EMA50 on D1 and RSI is near 30, after a hawkish Fed and a wider 2y UST/EGB spread drove a roughly 2.4% September decline despite ECB hike chatter. The pair is now retesting the 1.1325–1.1355 base: the ytd low from June, with the July and 28 Sep sep low just above.

Support: 1.1353, 1.1324

Resistance: 1.1410, 1.1490, 1.1654

What it said to watch

  • Daily close below the 1.1324 ytd low breaks the four-month base and exposes 1.1270
  • Recovery through the 1.1410 minor high, then the fib 38.2 near 1.1490, would show the base holding
  • A close back above the 1.1654 lower high would invalidate the lower-highs trendline read
  • Wed euro-area CPI plus US PCE/ADP, and NFP later in the week, could materially shift this read

21:02 UTC

Downtrend, pressing multi-month lows · RSI 31 · price 1.13688

Lower highs from the 1.1711 August high; retesting the June/July base.

EURUSD has been in a downtrend since the 1.1711 August high. A lower high at 1.1654 in early September preceded a roughly 360-pip slide back to the july low at 1.1353, with price below both EMAs and EMA(50) rolling over. The September leg tracks hawkish-Fed repricing and wider rate spreads, and price now sits just above the 1.1324 ytd low from June with RSI near 31, soft but not yet oversold.

Support: 1.1353, 1.1324

Resistance: 1.1410, 1.1490, 1.1654

What it said to watch

  • A daily close below the 1.1324 ytd low extends the lower-low sequence, with 1.1270 the next reference.
  • Holding the july low and the ytd low zone would leave a potential base in place, but only a recovery above the 1.1410 swing high breaks the September lower-high chain.
  • A move back through the fib 38.2 at 1.1490 would put the downtrend read into question. The lower high at 1.1654 caps the broader structure.
  • Euro-area CPI/HICP and US ADP/PCE on Wed, then NFP later this week, could materially shift this read.

16:27 UTC

Downtrend since late-August peak, pressing the lows · RSI 29 · price 1.13688

Lower highs and lower lows from the 1.1711 Aug 21 high, now testing the Jun–Jul base at 1.1324–1.1353.

EURUSD has carved a month-long downtrend of lower highs and lower lows since the 1.1711 Aug 21 peak. The Sep 8 lower high at 1.1654 capped the only rebound, and price has since slid about 300 pips below a falling EMA(50), with widening 2y UST/EGB spreads and a hawkish Fed repricing driving the September drop. Price now sits on the Jul 28 / Sep 28 swing low at 1.1353, just above the june low of 1.1324, with daily RSI in oversold territory.

Support: 1.1353, 1.1324

Resistance: 1.1410, 1.1490, 1.1654

What it said to watch

  • Daily close below the 1.1324 june low confirms a fresh lower low and opens the next support at 1.1270
  • Daily close back above the 1.1410 sep 25 high would be the first higher high since the August peak
  • A recovery through the 38.2% fib near 1.1490 would bring the descending trendline from the lower high at 1.1654 back into view
  • US ADP, PCE and GDP on Wed, then NFP later this week, could materially shift this read

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