21:02 UTC
Downtrend, momentum slowing into oversold · RSI 21 · price 1.13268
Lower highs and lower lows since the late-August high; price back at the June low.
EURUSD is in a four-week downtrend from the late-August 1.1711 high, printing lower highs and lower lows since the 1.1570–1.1650 shelf gave way in mid-September. EMA20 has crossed below a now-falling EMA50, and price sits about 170 pips under EMA50. Price is back at the june low (1.1324), with the Sep 29 swing low at 1.1311 and the 1.1300 round number just beneath, as oil, French spread stress and a dovish ECB keep EUR heavy. RSI near 21 is oversold, and the daily ranges have narrowed over the last three sessions as the selling pace slows.
Support: 1.1324, 1.1311, 1.1300
Resistance: 1.1410, 1.1450, 1.1499
What it said to watch
- A daily close below the 1.1300 round number extends the lower-low chain beyond the june low and the Sep 29 swing low
- A recovery through the 1.1410 bounce high would mark the first higher high since August. The ema20 near 1.1450 and the 38.2% fib of the Aug–Sep decline at 1.1464 sit just above
- Only a close back above the ema50 near 1.1499 would neutralise the downtrend structure
- With RSI oversold near 21, a higher RSI low on a fresh price low would flag rsi divergence (bullish)
- EZ flash HICP (Fri 09:00 UTC) and US NFP (Fri 12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read