EUR/USD AI Live Scan, 15-minute chart, Thursday, 1 October 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the EUR/USD 15-minute chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:46 UTC
Downtrend, recovering off day low · RSI 55 · price 1.12454
Higher lows off 1.1215, stalling at 38.2% retrace.
London extended the Asian-range break lower, and NY accelerated the drop from 1.1297 to a 1.1215 day low on USD strength after the hot ISM prices paid, with French spread stress adding to it. The recovery since has printed higher lows and is now capped at the 1.1246 bounce high, which sits on the 38.2% fib of the NY drop, in thin post-rollover Asia trade. The 1.1240 late lows and the 1.1233 spike low are holding beneath.
Support: 1.12396, 1.12328, 1.12148
Resistance: 1.12463, 1.1252, 1.12654
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1246 bounce high and the 1.1252 breakdown area opens the 50% fib at 1.1256, then the fib 61.8 at 1.1265
Failure at the 1.1240 late lows and a break of the 1.1233 spike low puts the 1.1215 day low back in play
EZ flash HICP at 09:00 UTC and US NFP at 12:30 UTC Friday could materially shift this read
23:32 UTC
Downtrend, paused in a shallow post-NY rebound · RSI 51 · price 1.1245
Asian range and London low broken in NY; tight 1.1240–1.1246 range capped by the 38.2% fib.
Price broke below the Asian range and the London low during NY hours as DXY cleared 102.00 on French spread stress and firm US data, bottoming at the 1.1215 day low at 17:15 UTC. The rebound has stalled at the 38.2% fib of the NY sell-off near 1.1246, and price has compressed above a 1.1240 range floor into the early Asia session. ATR has shrunk to about 5 pips, against 10–15 pip bars during NY hours.
Support: 1.1240, 1.1233, 1.1215
Resistance: 1.1246, 1.1256, 1.1265
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 38.2% fib at 1.1246 opens the 50% fib at 1.1256, with the London low at 1.1265 above that
Loss of the 1.1240 range floor exposes the rollover low at 1.1233, then the 1.1215 day low
Cipollone at 07:30 UTC and EZ flash HICP at 09:00 UTC (f/c 3.6% y/y) could reset the London session range
US NFP at 12:30 UTC Friday could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 1.1311 to the 1.1215 day low; 30-pip rebound now compressing below ema50.
Price broke the Asian low near 1.1315 into London and extended through NY to a 1.1215 day low, with French spread stress and a firm dollar doing the work. The rebound has stalled near the 23.6% level of the decline fib and is now held in a 6-pip band between the 1.1240 range low and the 1.1246 rebound high, still below the ema50 around 1.1255.
Support: 1.12398, 1.12328, 1.12148
Resistance: 1.12463, 1.1255, 1.12649
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1246 rebound high and ema50 near 1.1255 opens the 1.1265 london low, now overhead
Loss of the 1.1240 range low and the 1.1233 rollover low puts the 1.1215 day low back in play
Thin Asia session ahead; EZ flash HICP at 09:00 UTC and US NFP at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Post-NY consolidation 1.1240–1.1246 after a 1.1215 day low; bounce capped at the 38.2% fib.
London broke the Asian range low near 1.1306. The NY session extended to a 1.1215 day low, tested three times, as DXY cleared 102.00 on French spread stress and a hot ISM prices-paid print. The bounce has stalled in a tight 1.1240–1.1246 consolidation after NY close, with the range top sitting on the 38.2% NY leg fib, and the 1.1233 rollover low was a thin-liquidity wick.
Support: 1.1240, 1.1233, 1.1215
Resistance: 1.1246, 1.1252
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1246 range top / 38.2% NY leg fib opens the 1.1252 prior shelf, where the breakdown started
Failure to hold the 1.1240 range low exposes the 1.1233 rollover low, then the 1.1215 day low
EZ flash HICP 09:00 UTC (f/c 3.6%) and US NFP 12:30 UTC Friday could materially shift this read
22:46 UTC
Downtrend, bouncing off NY low · RSI 54 · price 1.12432
Higher lows off 1.1215, tight 1.1233–1.1246 range into Asia.
London broke the Asian range and NY extended the slide to the 1.1215 NY low after the 14:00 UTC ISM data. The drivers were firm USD and French spread stress. The bounce since has printed a higher low at 1.1220 and stalled under the late high at 1.1246, below the 38.2% fib of the 1.1311–1.1215 drop. The 21:45 UTC dip low at 1.1233 held on the rising trendline.
Support: 1.12328, 1.12205, 1.12148
Resistance: 1.12463, 1.12516, 1.12649
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1233 dip low breaks the rising trendline and puts the 1.1215 NY low back in play
Close above the 1.1246 late high and the 38.2% fib at 1.1252 opens the broken london low at 1.1265
EZ flash HICP at 09:00 UTC Fri and US NFP at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from Asia; low-range drift off the 1.1215 session low.
EURUSD broke below the Asian range near 1.1315 at London open and fell about 120 pips. The slide accelerated through the 1.1252 breakdown level after the 14:00 UTC ISM prices-paid jump, as French debt stress and a firm USD weighed. Since the 1.1215 session low the pair has drifted along a recovery line into a tight band, capped at the late-NY high of 1.1246, which sits on the 38.2% fib of the NY drop.
Support: 1.12328, 1.12148
Resistance: 1.12463, 1.1252
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1246 late-NY high / 38.2% fib exposes the 1.1252 breakdown level
Loss of the 1.1233 rollover dip and the recovery line puts the 1.1215 session low back in play
EZ flash HICP (09:00 UTC) and US NFP (12:30 UTC) on Friday could materially shift this read
Asian range broken lower; post-NY higher lows compressing under 38.2% fib.
London broke below the Asian range (1.1315–1.1336). The 14:00 UTC ISM prices-paid beat extended the NY leg to a 1.1215 session low, tested three times. The rebound since has stalled at the 38.2% fib of that leg near 1.1246, with price boxed between there and a 1.1240 range floor into the Asia session. RSI(14) sits mid-40s and ATR has contracted sharply.
Support: 1.1240, 1.12205, 1.12148
Resistance: 1.1246, 1.1252, 1.1265
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.1246 (38.2% fib) exposes the 1.1252 breakdown shelf, then the london low / 61.8% retracement near 1.1265
Loss of the 1.1240 range floor puts the 1.1220 higher low and 1.1215 session low back in focus; a break there resumes the downtrend
EZ flash HICP at 09:00 UTC and US NFP at 12:30 UTC Friday could materially shift this read
Lower highs through London and NY; higher lows off the 1.1215 day low, now flat in a tight micro range.
London cut below the Asian range and NY extended the slide through 1.1282 to a day low at 1.1215. Oil, French spread stress and DXY above 102.00 drove the move. The post-low bounce has built higher lows at 1.1220 and 1.1228 but stalled at the 1.1246 bounce high, below the 38.2% fib of the 1.1311–1.1215 leg. Price is pinned in a 6-pip micro range into thin rollover, with ATR(14) contracting to about 5 pips.
Support: 1.12396, 1.12284, 1.12148
Resistance: 1.12463, 1.12522, 1.12595
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1252 38.2% fib exposes the 1.1260 breakdown shelf from the NY slide
Loss of the 1.1240 micro low ends the bounce and puts the 1.1228 higher low and 1.1215 day low back in focus
EZ flash HICP at 09:00 UTC and US NFP at 12:30 UTC Friday could materially shift this read
Higher lows off NY low 1.1215, grinding toward 38.2% fib.
London broke the Asian range low at 1.1306, and NY extended the slide to the NY low at 1.1215 as crude, French spread stress and DXY's break of 102.00 weighed. Since then the pair has made a low-range, flag-like run of higher lows back to the late high at 1.1246, just under the 38.2% fib at 1.1252, where the 16:00 UTC breakdown started.
Support: 1.1240, 1.12148
Resistance: 1.12463, 1.1252
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1252 38.2% fib would take the bounce beyond a shallow flag
Break of the 1.1240 micro low and the recovery line would put the NY low at 1.1215 back in focus
EZ flash HICP at 09:00 UTC Fri (f/c 3.6%) is the next scheduled risk for this read
Lower highs from 1.1311; higher lows off 1.1215, capped at 1.1246.
London broke below the Asian range, and NY hours took out the London low at 1.1265 as crude, French spread stress and hot ISM prices weighed, printing a 1.1215 session low. The post-NY rebound has built a higher low at 1.1220 and micro lows at 1.1240. It is stalling at the 1.1246 bounce high, just under the 38.2% fib of the NY sell-off at 1.1252.
Support: 1.1240, 1.1220, 1.1215
Resistance: 1.1246, 1.1252, 1.1265
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1252 fib 38.2 opens a retest of the broken london low at 1.1265
Repeated failure at the 1.1246 bounce high keeps the rebound corrective within the downtrend
Loss of the 1.1240 micro lows and the 1.1220 higher low exposes the 1.1215 session low
EZ flash HICP (09:00 UTC) and US NFP (12:30 UTC) on Friday could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows from the Asian range, then a shallow higher-low flag off the 1.1215 session low.
The Asian range (~1.1315–1.1336) broke lower at London open. The slide extended through NY as crude, French spread stress and a hot ISM Prices Paid weighed on EUR, bottoming at the 1.1215 session low. The ~30-pip late-NY rebound is a shallow flag capped at the 1.1246 bounce high, still under the 1.1252 breakdown pt / 38.2% retracement, with RSI(14) ~45 and price flat on EMA20.
Support: 1.1240, 1.1232, 1.1215
Resistance: 1.1246, 1.1252, 1.1265
What it said to watch
Last two bars are slipping under the rising support. A close below the 1.1240 micro lows exposes the 1.1232 swing low, then the 1.1215 session low.
A close above the 1.1246 bounce high puts the 1.1252 breakdown pt / 38.2% retracement in play, with the 1.1265 london low above that.
Thin liquidity into NY close and rollover. EZ flash HICP at 09:00 UTC Fri is the next scheduled catalyst that could shift this read.
Higher-low chain off 1.1215 day low, testing bounce high.
EURUSD broke below the Asian range during London. It extended to a 1.1215 day low in NY as firm US claims and hot ISM prices lifted the dollar, and that low held on two tests. The late-NY recovery is a higher-low chain along a rising trendline, now pressing the 1.1246 bounce high with RSI(14) near 52.
Support: 1.1240, 1.1221, 1.1215
Resistance: 1.1246, 1.1252, 1.1265
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1246 bounce high completes the double bottom and opens the 1.1252 breakdown shelf, then the 1.1265 london low near the fib 50%
Break of the 1.1240 pullback low and the rising trendline exposes the 1.1221 higher low
Loss of the 1.1215 day low resumes the downtrend
EZ flash HICP (Fri 09:00 UTC) and US NFP (12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
Lower highs since London; higher-low chain off the 1.1215 session low.
London broke below the Asian range and NY extended the slide after firm US claims and a hot ISM prices-paid print lifted USD, with the session low at 1.1215 at 17:15 UTC. Late NY has built higher lows up to 1.1240, and price is now testing the 1.1245 bounce high, which sits at the 38.2% fib of the NY sell-off.
Support: 1.1240, 1.1215
Resistance: 1.1245, 1.1252, 1.1265
What it said to watch
Close above the 1.1245 bounce high opens the 1.1252 broken low, then the 50% fib near 1.1256
1.1265 London low lines up with the 61.8% fib; rejection there keeps the lower-high sequence intact
A break of the 1.1240 higher low and the higher-low line ends the late-NY bounce; the 1.1215 session low comes back into view
EZ flash HICP (09:00 UTC) and US NFP (12:30 UTC) Friday could materially shift this read
Higher-low chain off 1.1215 base, pressing 1.1245 neckline.
London broke the Asian range low near 1.1306 and NY extended the slide to a 1.1215 session low, tested three times between 15:45 and 17:15 UTC, as the dollar firmed on the hot ISM prices-paid print, a claims beat and French spread stress. Late NY has built a higher-low chain from that base, with the 19:32 swing low at 1.1232, and price is now at the 1.1245 neckline just under the 38.2% fib of the NY sell-off.
Support: 1.1232, 1.1215
Resistance: 1.1245, 1.1265
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1245 neckline confirms the triple bottom and exposes the 1.1252 fib 38.2% and the 1.1265 london low
Loss of the 1.1232 swing low breaks the higher-low chain
Break below the 1.1215 session low resumes the downtrend
EZ flash HICP at 09:00 UTC Friday could materially shift this read
EUR/USD broke below the Asian range in London and extended to a 1.1215 session low in NY. The selling came on oil-led dollar strength, French spread stress and the hot ISM prices paid print. Since then a chain of higher lows has lifted price back above ema20 (~1.1235) into the 1.1245 bounce high, which lines up with the 38.2% fib of the 1.1297–1.1215 leg.
Support: 1.1235, 1.1220, 1.12148
Resistance: 1.12453, 1.1252, 1.1265
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1245 bounce high / 38.2% fib opens the 1.1252 breakdown shelf, then the 1.1265 london low (61.8%)
Break of the higher-low trendline and 1.1220 returns focus to the 1.1215 session low
Fed's Williams/Cook and ECB's Nagel speaking now could shift this read after London close
EZ flash HICP (Fri 09:00 UTC) and US NFP (12:30 UTC) are the next scheduled catalysts
Higher lows off 1.1215 double bottom, testing swing high.
NY session extended the London selloff through the 1.1265 London low to a session low at 1.1215, with the USD clearing 102.00 on firm claims and a hot ISM prices-paid print. A double bottom at 1.1215–1.1216 has since produced a rising trendline of higher lows into the 1.1245 swing high. Price sits on EMA20 with RSI(14) near 52.
Support: 1.1228, 1.1215
Resistance: 1.1245, 1.1252, 1.1265
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1245 swing high extends the higher-low chain toward the 38.2% fib of the NY drop at 1.1252
Break of the rising trendline and the 1.1228 higher low puts the 1.1215 session low back in play
The London low at 1.1265 is the breakdown level above the 38.2% fib
Fed's Williams and Cook (19:30 UTC) and ECB's Nagel (19:35 UTC) could shift this late-NY read; NFP Fri 12:30 UTC
The NY session extended the London sell-off through the 1.1252 breakdown after ISM prices paid jumped, with the move bottoming at the 1.1215 session low. Since then a chain of higher lows along rising support has lifted price back to the 1.1240 bounce high. Price sits there just under EMA20 and the 23.6% retracement of the NY sell-off fib, with RSI(14) near 44.
Support: 1.12284, 1.12205, 1.12148
Resistance: 1.12405, 1.12453, 1.12517
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1245 swing high exposes the 1.1252 breakdown level and the 38.2% NY sell-off fib
Loss of the 1.1228 higher low breaks rising support and puts the 1.1220 swing low back in play
A break below the 1.1215 session low resumes the NY downtrend
Fed's Williams and Cook (19:30 UTC) and ECB's Nagel (19:35 UTC) could jolt thin late-NY liquidity
Lower highs and lower lows through London and NY; small higher-low sequence off 1.1215 since 17:15 UTC.
London broke below the Asian range low near 1.1306. The NY leg after the jobless claims and ISM prices-paid prints took the pair to a 1.1215 session low, in line with the hawkish-Fed USD bid. Late NY is consolidating on rising lows, with the latest higher low at 1.1228, while the ema20 near 1.1241 and the fib 23.6% of the 1.1311–1.1215 drop cap the bounce.
Support: 1.12284, 1.12148
Resistance: 1.12414, 1.12453, 1.12517
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1215 session low resumes the lower-low sequence
Close above the 1.1245 swing high exposes the 1.1252 breakdown level and the fib 38.2% retracement
Loss of the rising lows line near 1.1228 ends the late-NY consolidation
Fed's Williams and Cook at 19:30 UTC could materially shift this read
London broke the 1.1315–1.1336 Asian range to the downside, and NY extended the slide to a 1.1215 session low on USD strength after the hot ISM prices paid and firm claims. Since then a higher low has formed at 1.1220. Price is now pressing the descending lower-high line, with the 1.1240–1.1245 lower high, the 38.2% fib and EMA20 clustered just overhead.
Support: 1.12205, 1.12148, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.1245, 1.12517
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1245 lower high and EMA20 opens the 1.1252 breakdown shelf
Loss of the 1.1220 higher low re-exposes the 1.1215 session low and the 1.1200 round number
Fed Bowman (19:00 UTC) and Williams/Cook (19:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 1.1311; late-NY base 1.1215–1.1240.
London broke below the 1.1315–1.1336 Asian range. NY extended the slide after the hot ISM prices paid at 14:00 UTC, cutting through the 1.1253 old YTD low to a session low at 1.1215. Late NY is consolidating between the 1.1220 swing low and the 1.1240 swing high under a short run of lower highs, with RSI(14) near 34 and price below both EMAs.
Support: 1.12205, 1.12148
Resistance: 1.12405, 1.1253, 1.12966
What it said to watch
Fed Bowman (19:00 UTC) and Williams/Cook (19:30 UTC) could break the late-NY base either way
M15 close below the 1.1215 session low resumes the lower-low sequence
Reclaim of the 1.1240 swing high and the lower highs line puts the 1.1253 old YTD low back in play; the 38.2% level of the drop fib sits there
A move back above the 1.1297 lower high would negate the NY downtrend structure
EZ flash HICP (Fri 09:00 UTC) and US NFP (Fri 12:30 UTC) are the next major event risk
18:16 UTC
Downtrend, pausing in late NY · RSI 32 · price 1.12276
Lower highs and lows; tight base 1.1215–1.1245.
London broke the Asian range low near 1.1306, and NY extended the slide after the hot ISM prices paid print. The move cleared the 1.1252 broken low (the prior YTD low) and set a session low at 1.1215. Late-NY trade is compressing between a higher low at 1.1220 and the 1.1240 bounce high, under the lower highs line, with the 1.1245 swing high sitting on the 38.2% of the NY leg fib.
Support: 1.12205, 1.12148
Resistance: 1.12405, 1.12453, 1.12517
What it said to watch
Fed Bowman at 19:00 UTC and Williams/Cook at 19:30 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 1.1245 swing high (38.2% of the NY leg fib) breaks the lower highs line and exposes the 1.1252 broken low
Failure to hold the 1.1220 higher low, then the 1.1215 session low, resumes the lower-low sequence
Rejection below the 1.1240 bounce high keeps the consolidation capped
Lower highs and lower lows; tight base 1.1215–1.1245 after NY flush.
London broke below the Asian range and the 1.1265 London low gave way during NY hours, as firm US data and yields pushed EUR/USD through 1.1250 to a session low at 1.1215. After London close, price is coiling between the session low and a lower high at 1.1245, holding below the 38.2% retrace of the NY selloff, with RSI(14) near 27.
Support: 1.12148, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.12453, 1.12649
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1245 lower high breaks the micro lower-high chain and exposes the 1.1265 London low
Failure to hold the 1.1215 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.1200 psych level
Fed's Bowman (19:00 UTC) and Williams/Cook (19:30 UTC) within the next 90 minutes could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows through London and NY; small base at 1.1215–1.1217 late NY.
London broke the Asian range low near 1.1315. NY extended the slide through the 1.1253 former low after the 14:00 UTC ISM high at 1.1296, with hot Prices Paid feeding USD demand. Three tests of 1.1215–1.1217 have held so far, and the late-NY bounce high at 1.1240 sits between the 23.6% and 38.2% of the NY selloff fib, with RSI(14) recovering to ~33.
Support: 1.12148, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.12405, 1.1253, 1.12958
What it said to watch
A break of the 1.1215 session low resumes the lower-low chain toward the 1.1200 round number
A reclaim of the 1.1253 former low, above the 38.2% NY selloff fib at 1.1246, shifts the read to a deeper retracement toward the ism high
Fed's Bowman (19:00 UTC) and Williams/Cook (19:30 UTC) could materially shift this read in thin late-NY trade
EURUSD broke through the 1.1253 ytd low during NY hours as long-end US yields climbed, and three probes of the 1.1215–1.1218 area set the 1.1215 session low at 17:15 UTC. The late-NY bar has lifted to 1.1241, pressing the 1.1245 bounce high near the 38.2% level of the 1.1297–1.1215 fib.
Support: 1.12148, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.12453, 1.1253, 1.12654
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1245 bounce high puts the broken 1.1253 ytd low in play as a retest
Rejection below 1.1253 keeps the lower-high sequence intact; 1.1265 fib 61.8 caps a deeper retrace
Break of the 1.1215 session low exposes the 1.1200 round number
Fed speakers Jefferson (17:30), Bowman (19:00), Williams/Cook (19:30 UTC) could shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since London; Asian range broken below.
EUR/USD broke below the 1.1315–1.1336 Asian range in London. It extended lower in NY after hot ISM prices paid and 24-year-high long yields lifted USD, printing a session low at 1.1216. A bounce stalled at the 1.1245 swing high under the descending trendline from the 1.1311 midday high, and RSI(14) near 21 is oversold with ATR around 12 pips.
Support: 1.12161, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.12453, 1.12649, 1.13111
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.1216 session low exposes the 1.1200 round number
M15 close above the 1.1245 swing high and descending trendline breaks the lower-high chain
1.1252 (38.2% fib) and the 1.1265 london low mark the next resistance band on any rebound
Fed speakers Jefferson 17:30, Bowman 19:00 and Williams/Cook 19:30 UTC could materially shift this read
LH/LL chain since 1.1311; fresh session low 1.1216, NY afternoon.
London broke below the 1.1315 Asian range low, and NY extended the slide after the 14:00 UTC US data. Hot ISM prices paid and 24-year-high yields pushed EURUSD through the 1.1252 YTD low to a 1.1216 session low. The 1.1245 bounce high is the latest lower high, with RSI(14) near 28 and ATR around 12 pips.
Support: 1.12161, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.12453, 1.12517, 1.12649
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1245 lower high breaks the LH/LL chain
Reclaim of the 1.1252 ytd low, at the 38.2% of the NY leg fib, would mark a failed breakdown
Failure to hold the 1.1216 session low puts the 1.1200 round number in play
The 1.1265 london low sits near the 50% retracement of the NY leg, so a move there would be a deeper reset of the down move
Fed speakers Jefferson (17:30 UTC), Bowman (19:00) and Williams/Cook (19:30) could materially shift this read
16:46 UTC
Downtrend, stretched after NY breakdown · RSI 24 · price 1.12249
Lower highs and lower lows; Asian range and old YTD low broken, bounce capped under 38.2% fib.
London broke the 1.1315–1.1336 Asian range lower, and NY hours extended the slide through the 1.1253 old YTD low to a 1.12175 session low as Treasury yields and hot ISM prices paid lifted USD. The bounce stalled at 1.12453, just under the 38.2% fib of the NY leg, and price is pressing the lows again after London close with RSI(14) near 24.
Support: 1.12175, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.12453, 1.1253, 1.1265
What it said to watch
A failure to clear the 1.12453 bounce high keeps the lower-high chain intact; a reclaim of the 1.1253 old ytd low would point to a false break
An M15 close below the 1.12175 session low exposes the 1.1200 round number
A recovery through the 38.2% fib toward the 1.1265 london low would mark a deeper retracement of the NY leg
Fed's Jefferson (17:30 UTC), Bowman (19:00) and Williams/Cook (19:30) could materially shift this read; Friday's EZ HICP and US NFP are the larger risks
NY hours extended London's selloff after the hot ISM prices print and firm claims. Price broke the 1.1252 prior low and the 1.1265 London low, then hit a 1.1218 session low; the bounce has stalled at the 1.1245 bounce high, near the 38.2% fib, and lower highs from 1.1311 remain intact. RSI(14) is near 27 after the slide, and the window is now just after London close.
Support: 1.12175, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.12453, 1.1252, 1.1265
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.1252 prior low (38.2% fib) would point to a false break
Reclaim of the 1.1265 london low (50% fib) breaks the lower-highs trendline structure
Failure to hold the 1.1218 session low extends the lower-low chain toward 1.1200 psych
Fed's Jefferson (17:30 UTC), Bowman (19:00) and Williams/Cook (19:30) could materially shift this read
Rejection at the 1.1245 bounce high keeps the post-break consolidation below broken support
Lower highs and lower lows through London and NY, old ytd low broken.
NY session pushed the London downtrend lower after the ISM Prices Paid beat at 77.9. Price cut through the old ytd low at 1.1253 to a 1.1218 session low and has bounced about 20 pips, with RSI(14) lifting from ~25 to 30. Lower highs at 1.1311 and 1.1297 define the descending trendline, and the Asian range of 1.1315–1.1336 sits well above.
Support: 1.12175, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.12415, 1.1253, 1.12966
What it said to watch
A close back above 1.1253 (old ytd low, near the fib 38.2%) would turn the breakdown into a false break
The bounce high at 1.1242 capping keeps the recovery shallow; losing the 1.1218 session low exposes the 1.1200 round number
A break of the descending trendline and the 1.1297 lower high would end the lower-high sequence
Fed's Jefferson (17:30 UTC), then Bowman and Williams/Cook, could shift this read during late NY hours
Lower highs and lower lows from London open; NY leg broke the 1.1252 YTD low.
The Asian range low near 1.1315 gave way in London. Late NY session then extended the lower-high chain through the 1.1252 YTD low to a 1.1218 session low, with USD riding 24-year-high yields, firm claims and hot ISM prices. RSI(14) near 24 is stretched, and 1.1252 now lines up with the 38.2% of the NY leg fib.
Support: 1.12175, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.1252, 1.1265
What it said to watch
A close back above the 1.1252 ytd low and the 38.2% NY leg fib softens the breakout read
Failure to hold the 1.1218 session low exposes the 1.1200 round number
The lower-high trendline from 1.1311 caps rebounds; the 1.1265 london low is the next pivot above
Fed's Jefferson at 17:30 UTC, then Bowman and Williams/Cook, could materially shift this read
15:46 UTC
Downtrend, accelerating in NY session · RSI 24 · price 1.12363
Lower highs and lower lows; London low broken, fresh session low.
The NY session extended the selloff after the hot ISM prices paid print, with yields driving the dollar. Price broke through the London low at 1.1265, the yearly low cited in the digest, and printed a session low at 1.1228; RSI(14) sits at 24. Lower highs at 1.1311 and the 1.1297 lower high define the descending trendline, and the 38.2% fib of the drop sits near 1.1260, just above the 1.1252 break shelf.
Support: 1.1228, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.1252, 1.1265, 1.1297
What it said to watch
Reclaim of the 1.1252 break shelf and the 1.1265 London low would turn the breakdown into a false break
Failure to hold the 1.1228 session low exposes the 1.1200 round number
An M15 close above the descending trendline and the 1.1297 lower high invalidates the lower-high chain
Fed speakers Jefferson, Bowman, Williams and Cook (17:30–19:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
15:31 UTC
Downtrend, accelerating in NY · RSI 21 · price 1.12402
Lower highs and lower lows since London open; fresh session low, below the Asian range.
Price fell through the 1.1265 london low and the yearly-low area in NY after the hot ISM prices-paid print at 14:00 UTC, adding to the yield-driven USD bid. The bar is pressing the session low at 1.1238 with RSI(14) near 21, deeply oversold. Lower highs at 1.1311 and 1.1297 frame the descending trendline, and the 1.1252 prior low is the nearest resistance.
Support: 1.12376, 1.1200
Resistance: 1.12517, 1.12649, 1.12966
What it said to watch
Reclaim of the 1.1265 london low, which lines up with the fib 38.2%, would mark the breakdown as a false break
M15 close above the 1.1297 lower high breaks the descending trendline and the lower-high chain
Failure to hold the 1.1238 session low leaves the 1.1200 round number as the next reference
Schnabel (15:30 UTC) and Fed's Jefferson (17:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
15:16 UTC
Downtrend, fresh lows in NY session · RSI 25 · price 1.12561
Lower highs and lower lows; London low broken.
NY session broke the London low at 1.1265, which sits near the yearly low. The break printed a session low at 1.1252 as USD extended on 24-year-high Treasury yields. Lower highs at the 1.1311 swing high and the 1.1297 lower high frame the descending trendline, with RSI(14) oversold near 25.
Support: 1.12517, 1.1250
Resistance: 1.12649, 1.12966, 1.13111
What it said to watch
Schnabel speech at 15:30 UTC: any pushback on Lagarde's dovish tone could trigger a snap-back toward the london low at 1.1265
M15 close back above the london low at 1.1265 would mark the break as a false break
Failure to hold the session low and the 1.1250 round number extends the lower-low chain
Close above the 1.1297 lower high breaks the descending trendline; the 1.1311 swing high caps above
Fed's Jefferson (17:30 UTC), Bowman, Williams and Cook later in NY hours could shift USD tone
15:01 UTC
Downtrend, NY extending London lows · RSI 30 · price 1.12649
Lower highs and lower lows since the Asian range broke lower.
The Asian range (1.1315–1.1336) gave way early in London, and NY hours have now pushed to a 1.1262 session low, just under the 1.1265 london low and reported yearly low, with US yields keeping USD bid. Rebounds have capped at the 1.1311 swing high and the 1.1297 lower high along a descending trendline. RSI(14) is near 30 and ATR(14) about 9 pips.
Support: 1.12615, 1.1250
Resistance: 1.12649, 1.12966, 1.13111
What it said to watch
M15 closes back above the 1.1265 london low would turn the NY break into a false break
Failure to hold the 1.1262 session low exposes the 1.1250 round number
A close above the 1.1297 lower high breaks the descending trendline and the lower-high chain; the 1.1311 swing high caps the fib of the 1.1311–1.1262 drop
ECB's Schnabel at 15:30 GMT and Fed's Jefferson at 17:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 1.1311 pressing on 1.1282 swing low.
London broke the Asian range low near 1.1306 and extended to a session low at 1.1265 on the yields-driven USD bid. The late-morning bounce was rejected at the fib 61.8 near 1.1311. Since then, NY session has printed lower highs, with the latest at 1.1297 capped around the 14:00 UTC ISM release (hawkish prices paid), and price is pinned to the 1.1282 swing low.
Support: 1.1282, 1.1265
Resistance: 1.1297, 1.1311
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1282 swing low exposes a retest of the 1.1265 session low
Close above the 1.1297 lower high breaks the descending trendline and neutralises the lower-high sequence
Recovery through the 1.1311 fib 61.8 would mark a full retracement of the Asia-London sell-off
ECB Schnabel at 15:30 UTC and Fed speakers from 17:30 UTC could shift this read before NFP Friday
14:16 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 44 · price 1.12866
Lower highs since Asian high; NY range 1.1281–1.1297 under 1.1311.
London broke the Asian low at 1.1315 and extended to a 1.1265 session low by 10:00 UTC as yields and French spread stress weighed on EUR. The rebound stalled at a 1.1311 lower high near the 61.8% fib. NY is compressing between the 1.1281 range floor and the 1.1297 range top, below both EMAs, with ATR(14) about 9.5 pips.
Support: 1.1281, 1.1265
Resistance: 1.1297, 1.1311, 1.1315
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.1281 range floor exposes the 1.1265 session low
M15 close above the 1.1297 range top and the lower highs trendline challenges the downtrend read; 1.1311 lower high next
Reclaim of the 1.1315 Asian low would shift structure back into the prior Asian range
ECB Schnabel 15:30 UTC and Fed speakers from 17:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from the Asian high into a 1.1265 London low; since then a 1.1282–1.1311 range with a rising-lows line underneath.
London extended the four-day slide on surging US yields and French spread stress, breaking the 1.1336 Asian high to 1.1265 low leg down to a fresh yearly low at 1.1265. NY has since held a higher low near 1.1282 twice, but sellers have capped the 1.1300 round number three times. Price sits at the 38.2% fib with the 1.1311 swing high (near the 61.8%) as the range top, and ISM is landing on the current bar.
Support: 1.1282, 1.1265
Resistance: 1.1300, 1.1311, 1.1336
What it said to watch
ISM Manufacturing and Waller at 14:00 UTC (this bar) could break the 1.1282–1.1311 range either way
M15 close above the 1.1311 swing high breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 1.1336 asian high in view
Failure to hold the 1.1282 higher low and the rising-lows line re-exposes the 1.1265 yearly low
ECB Schnabel at 15:30 UTC is a second risk window for EUR
13:46 UTC
Downtrend, pausing in early NY · RSI 48 · price 1.12885
Lower highs off 1.1311, tight 1.1282–1.1297 coil.
London broke the Asian range low at 1.1315 and ran to a 1.1265 session low on the US yield and oil-driven USD bid. The rebound met rejection at the 1.1311 bounce high, just under the broken Asian low. Early NY is coiling between the 1.1282 ny low and the 1.1297 lower high, near the 50–61.8% bounce fib, with no break on Lagarde.
Support: 1.1282, 1.1265
Resistance: 1.1297, 1.1311
What it said to watch
ISM Manufacturing and Waller at 14:00 UTC could break the 1.1282–1.1297 coil
M15 close below the 1.1282 ny low (61.8% bounce fib) exposes the 1.1265 session low
M15 close above the 1.1297 lower high opens the 1.1311 bounce high
13:31 UTC
Downtrend, bounce fading · RSI 41 · price 1.12847
Lower highs off 1.1311 after 1.1265 session low.
London broke below the Asian low near 1.1315 and slid to a session low at 1.1265, the yearly low, as USD strength on record long-end yields persisted. The bounce was rejected at the 1.1311 swing high and has faded into a series of lower highs. Price is sitting on the 61.8% of the bounce fib near the 1.1282 swing low, with RSI(14) at 41.
Support: 1.1282, 1.1265
Resistance: 1.1297, 1.1311, 1.1315
What it said to watch
Lagarde speaking now (13:30 UTC) and US ISM Manufacturing at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 1.1282 swing low reopens the 1.1265 session low
Recovery above the 1.1297 lower high and the 1.1311 swing high breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 1.1315 asian low back in play
Lower highs since 1.1311 spike rejection; holding above 1.1265 low.
London broke below the Asian range low near 1.1315 and extended the drop to the 1.1265 yearly low, as rising US yields and oil kept USD bid. A late-London spike to the 1.1311 spike high was rejected below the 1.1300 round number. Since then price has printed a chain of lower highs, with the latest near 1.1297. It is now pressing the 1.1284 swing low just ahead of Lagarde.
Support: 1.1284, 1.1281, 1.1265
Resistance: 1.1297, 1.1300, 1.1311
What it said to watch
Lagarde at 13:30 UTC and ISM Manufacturing plus Waller at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 1.1284 swing low and 1.1281 prior low exposes the 1.1265 yearly low
Reclaim of the 1.1297 lower high and the 1.1300 round number breaks the lower-high chain
Close above the 1.1311 spike high puts price back inside the 61.8% of the London drop fib
13:01 UTC
Downtrend, bounce faded · RSI 45 · price 1.1287
Lower highs below the 1.1300 round number after London breakdown.
London broke the asian low at 1.1315 and the 1.1300 round number, printing a london low at 1.1265 as rising US yields weighed on EUR. The rebound was rejected at the 1.1311 swing high, and price has since put in lower highs under the descending trendline. It now sits just above the 1.1281 swing low into the first hour of NY, with RSI(14) neutral near 45 and ATR around 11 pips.
Support: 1.1281, 1.1265
Resistance: 1.1300, 1.1311, 1.1315
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1311 swing high breaks the lower-highs sequence and reopens the asian low at 1.1315
Failure to hold the 1.1281 swing low exposes the 1.1265 london low
Acceptance back above the 1.1300 round number invalidates the retest-and-rejection read
Lagarde at 13:30Z and US ISM Manufacturing at 14:00Z (f/c 55) could materially shift this read
Asian range low broken in London; bounce from 1.1265 rejected above broken 1.1300.
London broke the Asian range low near 1.1315 and extended to the 1.1265 yearly low as US yields kept climbing. The rebound overshot the 61.8% of the London leg and retested broken 1.1300, but was rejected at the 1.1311 rebound high. Price is back near 1.1290, just under EMA20, with the 1.1281 higher low intact into the NY open; ATR(14) is about 10 pips.
Support: 1.12808, 1.12649
Resistance: 1.1300, 1.13111
What it said to watch
Lagarde at 13:30Z, then ISM Manufacturing and Waller at 14:00Z, could materially shift this read
Failure to hold the 1.1281 higher low reopens the 1.1265 yearly low
An M15 close back above broken 1.1300 and the 1.1311 rebound high negates the rejection
Lower highs under 1.1311, short-term higher low at 1.1281.
London broke the Asian range low at 1.1315 and the 1.1300 round number, with the sell-off extending to a session low at 1.1265, the yearly low, as rising US yields and oil lifted USD. The rebound was rejected at 1.1311, near the 78.6% retrace and under the lower highs line. Price is back below 1.1300 and sits between that level and the 1.1281 higher low into the NY open.
Support: 1.1281, 1.1265
Resistance: 1.1300, 1.1311, 1.1315
What it said to watch
Close above the 1.1311 rebound high breaks the lower highs sequence and puts 1.1315 asian low back in play
Failure to hold the 1.1281 higher low reopens the 1.1265 session low
Lagarde at 13:30 UTC, then ISM and Waller at 14:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
Lower highs intact; higher low at 1.1281 inside the 1.1265–1.1311 London range.
London broke below the Asian range and extended to 1.1265, the yearly low, as rising US yields and oil kept USD bid. A higher low followed at 1.1281. The 11:45 UTC spike to 1.1311 met rejection near the 61.8% of the London leg and closed back under the 1.1300 psych pivot, leaving price mid-range into the London-NY transition.
Support: 1.1281, 1.1265
Resistance: 1.1300, 1.1311, 1.1336
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 1.1311 rejection high breaks the lower-high sequence and exposes the 1.1336 asian high
Failure of the 1.1281 higher low reopens the 1.1265 yearly low
US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC, Lagarde at 13:30, then ISM and Waller at 14:00 UTC are event risk inside the next two hours and could reset the session range
London broke the Asian range low and swept the yearly low; higher low now back above 1.1300.
London sold through the 1.1315 Asian low and the 1.1300 psych on yield-driven USD demand, sweeping the 1.1265 yearly low at 10:00 UTC before a sharp rebound. A higher low at 1.1281 carried price back above 1.1300. Price is now retesting that level from above, just under the rebound high at 1.1311, which sits at the 61.8% fib of the Asian high to yearly low drop.
Support: 1.1300, 1.12808, 1.12649
Resistance: 1.13111, 1.13149, 1.13364
What it said to watch
An M15 close back below the 1.1300 psych reopens the higher low at 1.1281 and the 1.1265 yearly low
A break of the higher low line from 1.1265 to 1.1281 negates the rebound structure
Acceptance above the 1.1311 rebound high and the 1.1315 Asian low puts the 1.1336 Asian high in view
US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC, Lagarde at 13:30 and ISM at 14:00 UTC carry NY session event risk that could materially shift this read
London lower-high sequence broke the Asian range low; higher low at 1.1281 now retesting 1.1300 from below.
London broke the Asian low near 1.1315 and slid through 1.1300 to a session low at 1.1265, with high long-end US yields and Brent above $100 keeping USD bid. A higher low at 1.1281 has price back at 1.1298, the 61.8% retrace of the London leg sitting right at the 1.1300 broken pivot.
Support: 1.1281, 1.1265
Resistance: 1.1300, 1.1315
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.1300 broken pivot, the London leg 61.8%, would negate the London lower-high sequence and puts the Asian low at 1.1315 in play
Rejection at 1.1300 and a break of the 1.1281 higher low would put the 1.1265 session low back in focus
US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC, Lagarde at 13:30 and ISM/Waller at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
11:31 UTC
Downtrend, bounce faded · RSI 39 · price 1.12818
Lower highs and lower lows since London open; Asian range broken lower.
London broke the Asian low at 1.1315 and fell to a session low of 1.1265, at the yearly-low area, as US yields, Brent and French spread stress weighed on EUR. The rebound met rejection at 1.1297, a lower high near the 50% retrace of the London leg and under the descending trendline. Price is back near 1.1282 late in London, with RSI(14) around 39.
Support: 1.12808, 1.12649
Resistance: 1.12971, 1.1300, 1.13149
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.1281 pullback low exposes the 1.1265 session low
An M15 close above the 1.1297 lower high and the descending trendline breaks the lower-high chain; the 1.1300 round number is the next cap
A reclaim of the 1.1315 Asian low would put price back inside the Asian range and void the range-break read
US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC, Lagarde at 13:30 and ISM/Waller at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from Asian range break, rebound capped below round number.
London broke the Asian range low at 1.1315 and extended to a session low at 1.1265 as hawkish-Fed yields and French spread stress weighed on EUR. The rebound high at 1.1297 stalled between the 38.2% and 50% fib and under the 1.1300 round number, with price back on the 1.1287 pivot low and the descending trendline intact.
Support: 1.1287, 1.1265
Resistance: 1.1297, 1.1300, 1.1315
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1300 round number and the descending trendline breaks the lower-high chain
Failure to hold the 1.1287 pivot low exposes the 1.1265 session low
Jobless claims 12:30 UTC, Lagarde 13:30 UTC and ISM/Waller 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Reclaim of the 1.1315 asian low would return price to the prior range
Lower highs and lower lows since London open. Asian range broken lower, price retesting 1.1300 from below..
London broke below the Asian range (asian low 1.1315, asian high 1.1336) and the 1.1300 psych level as US yields stayed firm, extending to a session low at 1.1265. The bounce has stalled near 1.1297, around the 50% of the London leg fib, with RSI(14) neutral near 43.
Support: 1.1287, 1.1265
Resistance: 1.1300, 1.1315, 1.1336
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 1.1300 psych reopens the asian low at 1.1315
Failure to hold the swing low at 1.1287 puts the session low at 1.1265 back in play
Rejection near the 61.8% of the London leg (~1.1302) keeps the lower-high sequence intact
US jobless claims 12:30 UTC, Lagarde 13:30 UTC and ISM 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs since 06:00 UTC, V-rejection from 1.1265, testing trendline.
London broke below the Asian low at 1.1315 and the 1.1300 round number as US yields kept the dollar firm, printing a session low at 1.1265 before a sharp rejection back to 1.1290. Price is now pressing the descending trendline off the 1.1325 swing high, between the 38.2% and 50% of the London leg fib, with 1.1300 capping overhead.
Support: 1.1275, 1.1265
Resistance: 1.1300, 1.1315, 1.1325
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1300 round number and the descending trendline breaks the London lower-high sequence, exposing the 1.1315 Asian low and the 1.1325 swing high
Loss of the 1.1275 higher low reopens the 1.1265 session low
US jobless claims 12:30 UTC, Lagarde 13:30 UTC and ISM 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs since London open; Asian range broken lower.
London broke the Asian low near 1.1315 and the 1.1300 psych handle on climbing US yields, then extended to a 1.1265 session low before a 25-pip rebound. Price is now retesting 1.1300 from below, near the 38.2% fib of the London leg and just under the falling trendline.
Support: 1.1287, 1.1265
Resistance: 1.1300, 1.1315
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 1.1300 psych and the falling trendline would break the lower-high sequence and put the asian low at 1.1315 in view
Failure to hold the 1.1287 prior low reopens the 1.1265 session low
ECB Nagel/Villeroy at 10:35 UTC, US jobless claims at 12:30, Lagarde at 13:30 and ISM at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
10:16 UTC
Downtrend, extended into London · RSI 30 · price 1.12764
Lower highs and lower lows; Asian range and 1.1300 broken, bouncing off session low.
London broke below the Asian low at 1.1315 and the 1.1300 psych level as rising US yields kept the dollar firm. A late-London flush printed a 1.1265 session low, and price is now bouncing just under the 1.1287 prior low with RSI(14) near 30. The lower-high trendline from the London open spike remains intact below 1.1300.
Support: 1.12649, 1.1250
Resistance: 1.12871, 1.1300, 1.13149
What it said to watch
Close back above the 1.1287 prior low and the 1.1300 psych level would break the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 1.1265 session low exposes the 1.1250 round number
Reclaim of the Asian low at 1.1315 invalidates the intraday downtrend read
ECB Nagel/Villeroy at 10:35 UTC, US jobless claims at 12:30, Lagarde at 13:30 and ISM at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
10:01 UTC
Downtrend, extended into oversold · RSI 23 · price 1.12667
Lower highs and lower lows; Asian range broken lower in London.
London broke the Asian low at 1.1315, then the 1.1300 psych line, and pushed to a session low at 1.1265 on a 21-pip bar as US yields kept the dollar firm. The lower-highs trendline has capped every bounce since the Asia session. RSI(14) near 23 is stretched, and the 1.1287 prior low now sits overhead.
Support: 1.1265, 1.1250
Resistance: 1.1287, 1.1300, 1.1315
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.1287 prior low would signal the impulse stalling; reclaiming 1.1300 psych would breach the lower-highs trendline
Failure to hold the 1.1265 session low opens the 1.1250 round number
Nagel/Villeroy 10:35 UTC, US claims 12:30 UTC, Lagarde 13:30 UTC and ISM 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Asian low at 1.1315 marks the 61.8% fib area of the Asian-high-to-session-low move
Asian range broken lower, LH/LL chain below 1.1300.
London took out the Asian low at 1.1315 and the 1.1300 psych handle, printing a session low at 1.1287 as US yields extended and Lagarde's dovish line capped the euro. The 09:15 UTC bounce stalled at 1.1301, the 38.2% fib and the falling trendline, with a rejection back under psych. RSI(14) near 31 is soft but not stretched.
Support: 1.12871
Resistance: 1.13014, 1.13149, 1.13248
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 1.1300 psych and the falling trendline breaks the lower-high chain
Loss of the 1.1287 session low extends the lower-low sequence
Reclaim of the asian low at 1.1315 negates the range break; swing high 1.1325 caps above
Nagel/Villeroy 10:35 UTC, US claims 12:30 UTC, Lagarde 13:30 UTC and ISM 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows below the broken Asian range.
London extended the overnight slide on firm US yields. It broke the Asian low at 1.1315 and the 1.1300 psych level, printing a session low of 1.1287. The bounce stalled at 1.1301, the 38.2% fib of the London drop, keeping the lower-high sequence intact, with RSI(14) near 33 and not yet oversold.
Support: 1.12871
Resistance: 1.1300, 1.13149, 1.13248
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.1300 psych and the 1.1301 fib level breaks the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 1.1287 session low extends the London leg lower
Reclaiming the 1.1315 Asian low would neutralise the range break; the 1.1325 swing high sits above
Nagel/Villeroy 10:35 UTC, US claims 12:30, Lagarde 13:30 and ISM 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Asian range broken lower in London; LH/LL chain below 1.1300.
Mid-London, the pair extended the overnight slide, breaking below the 1.1315 asian low and the 1.1300 psych level to a 1.1287 session low, with each bounce capped under the descending trendline. A firm USD on 24-year-high long-end yields keeps EUR heavy despite the hot CPI run. RSI(14) near 35, not yet oversold.
Support: 1.12871
Resistance: 1.1300, 1.13116, 1.13149
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.1287 session low extends the lower-low sequence
M15 close back above 1.1300 psych and the descending trendline would stall the intraday downtrend
Recovery through the 1.1312 lower high and the 50% fib of the 1.1325–1.1287 leg (~1.1306) would break the LH chain; the 1.1315 asian low is the next cap
Nagel/Villeroy 10:35 UTC, US claims 12:30 UTC, Lagarde 13:30 UTC and ISM 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
09:01 UTC
Intraday downtrend, extended in London · RSI 29 · price 1.1288
Lower highs/lower lows below the broken Asian range.
London extended the overnight slide. Price broke the Asian low at 1.1315, then the 1.1300 psych handle, in a clean lower-high chain to a session low at 1.1287, as firm US yields kept EUR heavy despite this morning's PMI beats. RSI(14) near 29 is stretched but not extreme, with the 1.1300 psych, the lh trendline (~1.1302) and the 1.1306 50% fib of the London leg now overhead.
Support: 1.1287
Resistance: 1.1300, 1.1315, 1.1325
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 1.1300 psych and the lh trendline would stall the lower-high sequence
Close above the 1.1325 swing high negates the London leg and puts the Asian range back in play
Break of the 1.1287 session low extends the lower-low chain
Nagel/Villeroy 10:35 UTC, Jobless Claims 12:30, Lagarde 13:30 and ISM 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Asian range broken lower at London open; LH/LL chain below 1.1300.
London open broke the 1.1315 Asian low and has printed a lower-high/lower-low chain since, cutting through the 1.1300 psych handle to a session low at 1.1289. The 08:00 UTC euro-area PMI beats gave no lift as firm US yields dominate. RSI(14) near 31 is not stretched, and the 1.1305 lower high is the latest cap.
Support: 1.12886
Resistance: 1.1300, 1.13046, 1.13149
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1305 lower high breaks the lower-high chain
Reclaim of 1.1300 psych, then the 1.1311 fib 61.8 of the London leg, shifts the read to corrective
Return above the 1.1315 Asian low puts price back inside the Asian range
Failure to hold the 1.1289 session low extends the lower-low sequence
Nagel/Villeroy 10:35 UTC, Jobless Claims 12:30, Lagarde 13:30 and ISM 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Asian range broken lower in London, lower-high sequence under 1.1325.
London broke the Asian low at 1.1315 and the 1.1300 psych handle, with the london low at 1.1292 printed around the PMI and Cipollone window as firm US yields kept USD bid. Price is back pinned at 1.1300 beneath a trendline of lower highs from the 1.1325 swing high, with the latest lower high at 1.1312 capping the bounce; RSI(14) near 37, ATR(14) about 8 pips.
Support: 1.1300, 1.12918
Resistance: 1.13116, 1.13149, 1.13248
What it said to watch
M15 close above the lower-high trendline and 1.1312 breaks the lower-high sequence
Reclaim of the asian low at 1.1315 puts price back inside the Asian range, with the 61.8% retrace of the Asian high to London low move near 1.1319
Failure to hold 1.1300 psych exposes the london low at 1.1292
US claims 12:30 UTC, Lagarde 13:30 UTC and ISM 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
08:16 UTC
Downtrend, extending in early London · RSI 32 · price 1.12962
Lower highs since Asia, Asian range broken to the downside.
London open took out the 1.1315–1.1336 Asian range low and the 1.1312 cycle low, then broke the 1.1300 psych to a session low at 1.1292 as firm US yields kept USD bid. Lower highs from the 06:00 UTC peak are intact. RSI(14) near 32 is soft but not stretched, and the Asia high to London low leg shows no meaningful retracement yet.
Support: 1.12918
Resistance: 1.1300, 1.13116, 1.13364
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.1300 psych would mark the break as a false break
Reclaim of the 1.1312 cycle low and the lower highs line shifts the read to a range
Failure to hold the 1.1292 session low extends the lower-low sequence
Cipollone 08:20 UTC, US claims 12:30, Lagarde 13:30 and ISM 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Asian high at 1.1336 is the 38.2–50% fib zone of the Asia high to London low leg and caps any bounce structurally
Asian range broken lower, session low just under 1.1300.
Lower highs from the 1.1336 Asian high carried price through the 1.1315 Asian low in early Europe and on to a 1.1298 session low, a brief sweep of the 1.1300 psych level. The bounce stalled at the 1.1312 bounce high, short of the 38.2% fib, with RSI(14) near 34 as firm USD on rising yields drives the move.
Support: 1.1300, 1.12981
Resistance: 1.13116, 1.13149, 1.13248
What it said to watch
A close back above the 1.1315 Asian low reopens the broken range, with the lower-highs trendline near 1.1320 and the 1.1325 swing high above it
Acceptance below the 1.1298 session low extends the lower-low chain beyond the 1.1300 psych level
Lagarde at 13:30 UTC and US ISM Manufacturing at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Asian range broken lower, London extending lower lows below 1.1300.
The 1.1315–1.1336 Asian range gave way at 06:30 UTC, and London open extended the lower-high chain to a 1.1298 london low as rising US yields kept USD firm. Price is back above 1.1300 psych, with the broken asian low at 1.1315 now overhead and RSI(14) near 38.
Support: 1.12981, 1.1300
Resistance: 1.13149, 1.13248, 1.13364
What it said to watch
Eurozone PMIs (07:45/07:55 UTC) land on the current bar and could jolt the 1.1300 psych test
Acceptance below the 1.1298 london low confirms a fresh lower-low
An M15 close back above the 1.1315 asian low marks rejection of the break; clearing the 1.1325 lower high also breaks the lower-high trendline
Asian high at 1.1336 is the 100% retrace of the Asia-to-London fib move
Lagarde 13:30 UTC and US ISM 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read later in the day
07:31 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since the Asian high · RSI 33 · price 1.13059
Asian range broken to the downside in early London; LH/LL chain intact.
Early London extended the overnight decline from the Asian high at 1.1336, breaking the Asian low at 1.1315 and printing a session low at 1.1304 after the Eurozone PMIs, with rising US yields keeping EUR heavy. Price is pressing the 1.1300 psych level with RSI(14) near 33, not yet at an extreme.
Support: 1.1304, 1.1300
Resistance: 1.1315, 1.1325, 1.1336
What it said to watch
A close below 1.1300 psych extends the lower-low chain from the Asian high
A reclaim of the 1.1315 Asian low turns the break into a false break; the 1.1325 pre-ldn high sits on the lower-highs trendline
US jobless claims 12:30 UTC, Lagarde 13:30 UTC and ISM 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower-high/lower-low chain; Asian low broken then reclaimed.
Lower highs have stepped down since the post-PCE spike faded from 1.1380, with rising US yields keeping EUR heavy through Asia. Early European trade broke the 1.1315 asian low to a 1.1306 session low just above the 1.1300 round number, then snapped back inside. Price sits under the 1.1325 lower high in the first hour of London, RSI(14) near 39 and not stretched.
Support: 1.13149, 1.13063, 1.1300
Resistance: 1.13248, 1.13364
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.1315 asian low and loss of the 1.1306 session low would resume the lower-low chain toward the 1.1300 round number
M15 close above the 1.1325 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline; asian high at 1.1336 is the next level overhead
Eurozone PMIs (07:15–07:55 UTC) land during the London open; US claims 12:30, Lagarde 13:30 and ISM 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower-high chain from the Asian high; early-London sweep below the Asian low reclaimed.
Yesterday's PCE-driven spike to 1.1380 faded through NY. Asia printed a lower-high chain from the 1.1336 Asian high, and early London swept the Asian low down to the 1.1306 sweep low at 06:30 UTC before reclaiming it. Price sits near 1.1317, just under the 38.2% fib of the Asia-London leg and below both EMAs, with EUR heavy on dovish ECB commentary and firm US yields.
Support: 1.13149, 1.13063, 1.1300
Resistance: 1.13248, 1.13364, 1.1350
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.1315 asian low reopens the 1.1306 sweep low and the 1.1300 round number
Close above the 1.1325 lower high, which coincides with the 61.8% fib, breaks the descending trendline; asian high at 1.1336 next, 1.1350 psych beyond
Euro-area PMIs (07:15–07:55 UTC), US claims (12:30), Lagarde (13:30) and ISM (14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
06:47 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through Asia · RSI 37 · price 1.13106
LH/LL chain; Asian range broken lower pre-London.
Lower highs from the 1.1336 Asian high capped price under a descending Asia trendline. Price then broke the 1.1315 low and the 1.1312 multi-month low, printing a 1.1306 session low into the London open. USD is bid on rising yields, and RSI(14) at 37 is soft but not oversold.
Support: 1.13063, 1.1300
Resistance: 1.1315, 1.13248, 1.13364
What it said to watch
Return above the 1.1315 broken low turns the break into a false break
38.2% fib of the Asia leg near 1.1318 sits just above the broken low
M15 close above the 1.1325 lower high breaks the Asia trendline
Failure to hold the 1.1306 session low exposes the 1.1300 round number
Asian high at 1.1336 remains the top of the intraday structure
Eurozone PMIs 07:15–07:55 UTC, Lagarde 13:30 UTC and US ISM 14:00 GMT could materially shift this read
06:31 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through Asia · RSI 43 · price 1.13191
LH/LL chain from 1.1336 Asian high; bounces stalling below 1.1325.
Asia session cut a lower-high/lower-low chain from the 1.1336 asian high to a 1.1315 session low. This extends yesterday's slide after the NY spike to 1.1380 faded on firm US data and yields. The 06:00 bounce stalled at a 1.1325 lower high, near the 50% of the Asia leg fib and under the lower-high line, with price now drifting back toward the 1.1312 tuesday low into London open.
Support: 1.13149, 1.1312
Resistance: 1.13248, 1.13305, 1.13364
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1325 lower high breaks the Asia lower-high line
Clean break of the 1.1315 session low and 1.1312 tuesday low extends the lower-low sequence
The 04:00 high at 1.1330 and a reclaim of the 1.1336 asian high would negate the downtrend chain
HCOB PMIs (07:15–07:55 UTC) and Cipollone (08:20 UTC) could shift this read at London open; Lagarde 13:30 and ISM 14:00 UTC later
The fade of yesterday's 1.1380 NY spike carried into Asia as a chain of lower highs from the 1.1336 asian high down to a 1.1315 asian low, with firm US yields keeping EUR heavy. The late-Asia bounce sits just under the descending trendline near 1.1326 and the 50% fib of the Asian leg. ATR is about 4 pips ahead of London open, and the 1.1312 tuesday low is 3 pips below the asian low.
Support: 1.13149, 1.1312
Resistance: 1.13305, 1.13364
What it said to watch
M15 close above the descending trendline and the 1.1331 lower high breaks the Asian lower-high chain
Loss of the 1.1315 asian low exposes the 1.1312 tuesday low
Eurozone PMIs from 07:15 UTC and ECB speakers into Lagarde at 13:30 UTC could shift the read
US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC and ISM at 14:00 UTC are the main USD risk today
Lower highs and lower lows through Asia, trading below the 1.1322 NY low.
The 12:15 UTC spike to 1.1380 on strong US data has fully unwound. Rising US yields are outweighing hot euro-area CPI, and Asia slipped under the 1.1322 NY low to a 1.1315 Asian low. A falling trendline links the lower highs from the 1.1336 Asian high and the 1.1330 lower high. RSI(14) is near 42 and ATR about 3.6 pips heading into the London open.
Support: 1.13149, 1.1312
Resistance: 1.1322, 1.13305, 1.13364
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.1322 NY low and the 1.1330 lower high breaks the falling trendline and the lower-high chain
Failure to hold the 1.1315 Asian low exposes the 1.1312 Tuesday low; a hold there puts a 50% retrace of the Asian high-low fib at 1.1326 in view
HCOB PMIs from 07:15 UTC and ECB speakers (Cipollone 08:20) could shift the read early in London
US jobless claims 12:30, Lagarde 13:30 and ISM 14:00 UTC carry high risk of breaking the Asian range
Yesterday's PCE spike to 1.1380 at the NY open fully reversed as US yields firmed. Asia has since stacked lower highs from the 1.1336 Asian high to the 1.1330 lower high and printed a session low at 1.1315, just above the 1.1312 multi-month low. RSI(14) is neutral near 43 and ATR is a thin 3.4 pips ahead of the London open.
Support: 1.13149, 1.1312
Resistance: 1.13305, 1.13364, 1.1350
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1330 lower high and the descending trendline breaks the Asia lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 1.1315 session low exposes the 1.1312 multi-mo low; a close below extends the lower-low chain
Asian high at 1.1336 and the 1.1350 psych cap mark the upper end of the Asia decline fib
HCOB manufacturing PMIs 07:15–07:55 UTC at the London open could expand the current 3-pip ATR
Lagarde 13:30 UTC and US ISM/Waller 14:00 UTC carry high risk for this read
05:31 UTC
Downtrend, steady lower highs through Asia · RSI 31 · price 1.13158
Lower highs and lower lows since the 1.1336 Asian high; prior low at 1.1322 broken.
Late Asia session: price has stepped down from the 1.1336 Asian high and cut through yesterday's prior low at 1.1322, printing a fresh session low at 1.1315 with RSI(14) near 31, soft but not extreme. Price now sits a few pips above the 1.1312 multi-month low. Firm US yields and a bid dollar keep EUR heavy despite this week's hot national CPI prints.
Support: 1.13149, 1.1312, 1.1300
Resistance: 1.1322, 1.13305, 1.13364
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.1322 prior low would mark the break as a false break
Acceptance below the 1.1312 multi-month low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.1300 round number
A push above the 1.1331 lower high and the descending lower-highs line breaks the Asian sequence
Eurozone HCOB manufacturing PMIs 07:15–07:55 UTC around London open could shift this read
Lagarde 13:30 UTC and US ISM 14:00 UTC are later high-impact risks
05:16 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through Asia · RSI 31 · price 1.13158
LH/LL chain below yesterday's low, late Asia session.
The Asia sell-off has printed lower highs at the 1.1336 asian high and the 1.1331 lower high, breaking the 1.1321 prior low to a 1.1315 session low ahead of London open. RSI(14) sits near 31, not yet oversold. Yesterday's post-PCE spike to 1.1380 was fully reversed as firm US yields kept EUR heavy despite the hot CPI beats.
Support: 1.1312, 1.1300
Resistance: 1.1321, 1.1331, 1.1336
What it said to watch
Acceptance below the 1.1312 low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.1300 round number
M15 close back above the 1.1321 prior low and the lower high at 1.1331 breaks the Asia sell-off structure
HCOB PMIs 07:15–07:55 UTC, Lagarde 13:30 UTC and US ISM 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
05:01 UTC
Downtrend, grinding lower through Asia · RSI 33 · price 1.13185
Lower highs and lower lows from the 1.1336 Asian high, pressing session low.
The Asia session held a lower-high chain from the 1.1336 Asian high through the 1.1331 lower high. Price has slipped below yesterday's 1.1322 NY low to a fresh session low at 1.1318, with the dollar bid on rising US yields. RSI(14) is near 33 and not yet oversold; ATR is a thin 3.7 pips ahead of the London open.
Support: 1.13184, 1.1312
Resistance: 1.1322, 1.13305, 1.13364
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.1318 session low exposes the 1.1312 Tuesday low
M15 close back above the 1.1322 NY low turns the break into a false break
A bounce in the Asia leg that is capped near the 61.8% at about 1.1330 keeps the lower-high trendline intact; a close above 1.1331 breaks it
HCOB PMIs at 07:15–07:55 UTC around the London open could expand the range well beyond the current ATR
Lower highs and lower lows since yesterday's 1.1380 spike; price at the Asian low.
Late Asia session: EURUSD is pressing the Asian low at 1.13195 after a lower high at 1.13305. That extends the fade from 1.1380, the spike on yesterday's US data, as rising US yields keep EUR heavy. The 1.1312 Tuesday low is the next reference below, and RSI(14) near 31 is soft but not at an extreme.
Support: 1.13195, 1.1312
Resistance: 1.13305, 1.13364, 1.13425
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 1.13305 lower high breaks the lower-high chain; the 1.13364 Asian high is the next cap
A clean break of the 1.13195 Asian low exposes the 1.1312 Tuesday low
Rebounds would meet the fib 38.2 of the fade near 1.13425
Eurozone PMIs 07:15–07:55 UTC around the London open could reset the Asian range
US jobless claims 12:30 UTC, Lagarde 13:30 UTC and ISM 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows through Asia, pressing session low.
The rejection from the 1.1380 NY high after the US GDP/ADP beats unwound the London gains, and a firm USD on rising yields dragged EUR/USD below 1.1335 late in NY. Asia has printed lower highs off the 1.1336 asian high and is now pressing the 1.1320 session low, with RSI(14) near 34, soft but not oversold.
Support: 1.13195, 1.1312
Resistance: 1.13305, 1.13364, 1.1350
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.1320 session low exposes the 1.1312 may-25 low flagged in the macro digest
An M15 close above the 1.1331 lower high breaks the Asia lower-highs sequence; the 1.1336 asian high is next
The 38.2% fib of the drop from the NY high sits near 1.1343, below the 1.1350 psych pivot
Eurozone PMIs (07:15–07:55 UTC) and Lagarde at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read; ISM follows at 14:00 UTC
04:16 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since NY spike · RSI 39 · price 1.13235
Lower highs from 1.1380, pressing 1.1321 swing low in late Asia.
The soft-PCE spike to 1.1380 in NY was fully reversed as firm US growth data and rising yields lifted the dollar. Asia has printed another lower high at the 1.1336 Asian high and is retesting the 1.1321 swing low, with the 1.1330 bounce high capping and RSI(14) near 39.
Support: 1.1321, 1.1312
Resistance: 1.1330, 1.1336, 1.1350
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1321 swing low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.1312 may-25 low
Reclaim of the 1.1330 bounce high and 1.1336 Asian high breaks the lower-highs trendline; 1.1350 psych sits at the 50% fib of the NY selloff
HCOB PMIs from 07:15 UTC at London open, then Lagarde 13:30 and ISM 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs since the PCE spike rejection; Asian double bottom at 1.1321.
Yesterday's spike to 1.1380 on the soft US PCE print was fully rejected, and NY ground down to 1.1322 as yields and DXY firmed. In Asia, sellers capped the 1.1336 asian high and the asian low at 1.1321 held twice. The double bottom has lifted price to the 50% level of the asian drop fib, with RSI(14) near 46 and ATR about 3.4 pips ahead of London open.
Support: 1.1321, 1.1312
Resistance: 1.1336, 1.1350
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 1.1336 asian high breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 1.1350 round number in view
Failure to hold the 1.1321 asian low exposes the 1.1312 recent low
Rejection at the 61.8% of the asian drop fib near 1.1330 keeps the downtrend read intact
Eurozone PMIs from 07:15 UTC, Lagarde at 13:30 UTC and US ISM at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs since PCE spike; late-Asia base at 1.1321.
The post-PCE spike to 1.1380 has faded into a chain of lower highs as US yields firmed. Asia rejected the 1.1336 asian high and dipped to a 1.1321 asian low, a marginal sweep of the NY low that closed back above it. Price sits late in the Asian session below both EMAs with RSI(14) near 38, and the 1.1312 tuesday low lies just beneath.
Support: 1.13208, 1.1312
Resistance: 1.13364, 1.1350
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1321 asian low exposes the 1.1312 tuesday low
Close above the 1.1336 asian high breaks the lower-highs trendline
Reclaim of the 1.1350 round number (50% of the pce fade) invalidates the downtrend read
HCOB PMIs from 07:15 UTC, Lagarde at 13:30 and ISM at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs since the 1.1380 PCE spike; retesting the session low.
EUR/USD has faded from the 1.1380 PCE spike high in a chain of lower highs. Late in the Asia session it slipped back under the 1.1326 minor cap to retest the 1.1321 session low set during NY hours, with firm US yields and DXY near 101.50 keeping the euro heavy. RSI(14) near 38 and an ATR of about 3.4 pips point to a slow grind rather than a flush.
Support: 1.1321, 1.1312
Resistance: 1.1326, 1.1336, 1.1343
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 1.1321 session low opens the 1.1312 tuesday low, the weakest level since May 2025
A recovery above the 1.1326 minor cap and the 1.1336 asian high would break the lower-high sequence, with the fib 38.2 of the PCE spike at 1.1343 next
HCOB PMIs from 07:15 UTC around London open, Lagarde at 13:30 UTC and US ISM at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
The PCE spike to 1.1380 in NY hours faded into a lower-high chain under the falling trendline, with firm US yields outweighing the soft PCE print. Asia set a fresh asian low at 1.1321, a pip under yesterday's NY low, and price is coiling just above it late in the session. The asian high at 1.1336 and the 1.1340 swing high cap rebounds; RSI(14) is neutral near 43 and ATR is a thin ~3.7 pips.
Support: 1.13214, 1.1312
Resistance: 1.13364, 1.13404, 1.1350
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1321 asian low exposes the 1.1312 tuesday low
Close above the 1.1336 asian high and 1.1340 swing high breaks the lower-high chain; 1.1350 psych sits above
HCOB manufacturing PMIs 07:15–07:55 UTC at London open could break the Asian range
Lagarde 13:30 UTC and US ISM 14:00 UTC are the main risk to this read
03:01 UTC
Downtrend, Asia coiling near lows · RSI 43 · price 1.13253
Lower highs from 1.1380 NY spike, marginal new low in Asia.
Lower highs since the 1.1380 spike on yesterday's US data. Firm US yields kept supply capping rallies under the descending trendline. Late in the Asia session, price set a marginal new low at 1.1321 and is coiling just above it, below EMA20/50 with RSI(14) near 43, while the 1.1321–1.1336 Asian range frames the London open.
Support: 1.13214, 1.1300
Resistance: 1.13364, 1.13437
What it said to watch
Break of the asian low at 1.1321 extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.1300 round number
M15 close above the asian high at 1.1336 and the descending trendline breaks the lower-high chain; the 38.2% fib at 1.1344 sits above
HCOB Mfg PMIs from 07:15 UTC, just after London open, could expand the 4-pip ATR range
Lagarde 13:30 UTC and ISM 14:00 UTC later today are the larger risks to this read
Lower highs from 1.1380 PCE spike; fresh low 1.1321 in late Asia.
Late Asia session: rejection at the 1.1336 asian high gave way to a new window low at the 1.1321 asian low, extending the lower-high sequence from the 1.1380 PCE spike fade as firm US yields cap EUR. RSI(14) near 40, price below both EMAs, tuesday low 1.1312 sits 9 pips beneath.
Support: 1.13214, 1.1312
Resistance: 1.13364, 1.1350
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1336 asian high breaks the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 1.1321 asian low exposes the 1.1312 tuesday low
A reclaim of 1.1350 psych would bring the 38.2% fib of the PCE spike fade near 1.1344 back into play
HCOB Mfg PMIs at 07:15 UTC around London open could shift this read; Lagarde at 13:30 UTC and ISM at 14:00 UTC later today
Lower highs and lower lows since the 1.1380 spike; Asian range 1.1321–1.1336.
Lower-high chain intact since yesterday's 12:30 UTC spike to 1.1380 faded, with a firm USD near DXY 101.50 capping EUR. Mid-Asia session, price retested the prior NY low and set a marginal new asian low at 1.1321. RSI(14) near 38 is not stretched, and the asian high at 1.1336 caps the bounce.
Support: 1.13214, 1.1312
Resistance: 1.13364, 1.13404
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1321 asian low exposes the 1.1312 tuesday low
Close above the 1.1336 asian high and the lower-highs trendline breaks the intraday down-sequence; 1.1340 swing high next
Eurozone manufacturing PMIs from 07:15 UTC could shift this read around London open
02:16 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since NY · RSI 36 · price 1.1323
Lower highs and lower lows from the 1.1380 PCE spike; Asia bounce capped at 1.1336.
The 1.1380 PCE spike high was fully reversed through NY as firm US growth data lifted the dollar. Price has now printed a fresh swing low at 1.1321 in the Asia session after the bounce was rejected at the 1.1336 Asian high. Lower highs remain intact, RSI(14) sits near 36 and the tuesday low at 1.1312 is 11 pips below.
Support: 1.1321, 1.1312
Resistance: 1.1336, 1.1350
What it said to watch
Acceptance below the 1.1321 swing low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.1312 tuesday low
M15 close back above the 1.1336 asian high breaks the lower-highs sequence and puts 1.1350 psych in view
Eurozone PMIs from 07:15 UTC, US claims at 12:30, Lagarde at 13:30 and ISM/Waller at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Retracement of the PCE spike move stalling at the 38.2% fib (~1.1344) keeps the lower-highs structure intact
02:01 UTC
Downtrend, Asia compressing near lows · RSI 44 · price 1.13274
Lower highs from 1.1380 spike; tight Asian range 1.1325–1.1336, price back in lower half.
The soft-PCE spike to 1.1380 was rejected and NY hours ground down to a 1.1322 day low as US yields and DXY firmed. Asia has held a tight 1.1325–1.1336 range, with the latest bar slipping off the asia high back to 1.1327. RSI(14) is near 44 and ATR is about 3.4 pips, so the session is compressed ahead of London.
Support: 1.13252, 1.1322, 1.1312
Resistance: 1.13364, 1.1344, 1.13634
What it said to watch
Break of the asia low at 1.1325 and the day low at 1.1322 exposes the 1.1312 prior low
Recovery above the asia high at 1.1336 and the falling trendline shifts focus to the 1.1344 fib 38.2, then the 1.1363 london high
Eurozone PMIs from 07:15 UTC, Lagarde at 13:30 and US ISM at 14:00 could materially shift this read
01:46 UTC
Intraday downtrend, stalling in Asia · RSI 52 · price 1.13329
Lower highs from the 1.1380 post-PCE spike; Asian range 1.1325–1.1336 above the 1.1322 NY low.
NY faded the post-PCE spike to 1.1380, and price slid to the 1.1322 NY low as USD firmed. The Asia session is holding a tight 1.1325–1.1336 range, and the asian high was rejected at the 38.2% fib of the 1.1360–1.1322 drop. RSI(14) is neutral near 52, and ATR is about 3 pips.
Support: 1.13252, 1.1322
Resistance: 1.13364, 1.13404, 1.1350
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1336 asian high and the 1.1340 bounce high (50% fib) breaks the lower-high chain; 1.1350 psych is next
Failure at the asian low of 1.1325, then the 1.1322 ny low, extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.1312 multi-month low
Higher-low line from the 1.1322 low intact while above 1.1325; a break returns focus to the downside
Eurozone manufacturing PMIs from 07:15 UTC could break the Asian range; Lagarde at 13:30 and US ISM at 14:00 UTC are the larger risk
01:31 UTC
Intraday downtrend, Asia bounce in progress · RSI 61 · price 1.13362
Lower highs from PCE spike; Asian higher low at 1.1325 above NY low.
The soft-PCE spike to the 1.1380 pce high was fully rejected as US yields firmed, and NY sold down to a 1.1322 ny low. Early Asia lifted off a 1.1325 asian low, cleared the 1.1330–1.1333 asia shelf, and is now pressing the 23.6% fib and EMA50 near 1.1337, with the 1.1340 ny shelf overhead.
Support: 1.1333, 1.13252, 1.1322
Resistance: 1.13404, 1.1350, 1.13797
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1340 ny shelf opens 1.1350 psych and the 38.2% fib
Loss of the asia shelf at 1.1333 and the rising Asia support line returns focus to the 1.1325 asian low
Break of the 1.1322 ny low resumes the lower-low sequence
Eurozone manufacturing PMIs from 07:15 UTC, then Lagarde at 13:30 and ISM at 14:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
01:16 UTC
Downtrend, pausing in Asia · RSI 57 · price 1.13342
Lower high 1.1340, lower low 1.1322; Asian range 1.1325–1.1335 holding just above it.
The post-PCE spike to 1.1380 was fully rejected, and NY sold off to a 1.1322 prior low. Early Asia session is holding a tight 1.1325–1.1335 range, with the bounce stalling at the asian high below the fib 38.2 at 1.1344.
Support: 1.13252, 1.1322, 1.1312
Resistance: 1.13354, 1.1344, 1.1350
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1344 fib 38.2 and the 1.1350 round number breaks the lower-high sequence
Loss of the 1.1325 asian low and the 1.1322 prior low exposes the 1.1312 may-25 low
Eurozone manufacturing PMIs from 07:15 UTC, around London open, could break the Asian range
01:01 UTC
Post-spike downtrend, now flat · RSI 52 · price 1.13316
Lower highs from 1.1380 PCE spike; tight Asian range above NY low.
The PCE spike to 1.1380 at 12:30 UTC was fully unwound through NY hours as the dollar firmed, printing a lower-low NY low at 1.1322. Asia session is compressing in a 10-pip Asian range of 1.1325–1.1335, with price stuck between EMA20 and EMA50 and ATR(14) near 3 pips.
Support: 1.13252, 1.1322
Resistance: 1.13354, 1.13404, 1.1344
What it said to watch
Close above the 1.1335 Asian high brings the 1.1340 swing high and the fib 38.2 retracement of the PCE spike (1.1344) into view
Failure to hold the 1.1325 Asian low and the 1.1322 NY low extends the lower-low sequence toward 1.1312
Eurozone PMIs from 07:15 UTC at London open, then Lagarde at 13:30 UTC and US ISM at 14:00 UTC could break the Asian range
Lower highs from 1.1380 spike; higher low at 1.1325 vs NY low 1.1322.
The post-PCE spike to 1.1380 faded through NY as USD firmed on growth beats, leaving lower highs and a 1.1322 NY low. Early Asia session printed a higher low at the 1.1325 Asian low and is pressing the 1.1335 Asian high, just under the swing high at 1.1340 and the 38.2% fib near 1.1344.
Support: 1.13252, 1.1322, 1.1312
Resistance: 1.13354, 1.13404, 1.1350
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1340 swing high and 38.2% fib at 1.1344 opens the 1.1350 pivot
Break below the 1.1325 Asian low voids the higher-low line; under the 1.1322 NY low exposes the 1.1312 tuesday low
Eurozone manufacturing PMIs from 07:15 UTC could reset the Asian range before Lagarde later in the day
00:31 UTC
Downtrend, flattening in early Asia · RSI 56 · price 1.13327
Lower highs from the PCE high; tight Asian range above the NY low.
The soft-PCE spike to the 1.1380 PCE high faded as US yields firmed. Lower highs then carried price to the 1.1322 NY low. Early Asia is holding a 1.1325–1.1333 band after demand stepped in at the 1.1325 Asia low, with RSI(14) near 56 and the 1.1340 range top capping above.
Support: 1.1325, 1.1322, 1.1312
Resistance: 1.1340, 1.1351, 1.1380
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.1340 range top breaks the lower-highs trendline and exposes the 1.1351 fib 50% retracement of the PCE high to NY low leg
Failure to hold the 1.1322 NY low opens the 1.1312 Tuesday low, the weakest level since May 2025
HCOB manufacturing PMIs from 07:15 UTC could set the London session range
Lagarde at 13:30 UTC and US ISM at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
00:01 UTC
Downtrend, early Asia drifting at lows · RSI 38 · price 1.1326
Lower highs since PCE spike rejection; tight rollover box 1.1325-1.1332 above the NY low.
The soft-PCE spike to the 1.1380 pce high was fully rejected as growth beats firmed the dollar. NY sold through yesterday's 1.1342 asia high to a 1.1322 ny low, and price is now pressing the base of a 1.1325-1.1332 rollover-top box early in the Asia session, with ATR compressed to about 2 pips.
Support: 1.1322, 1.1312
Resistance: 1.1332, 1.1342, 1.1380
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.1322 ny low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.1312 tuesday low
Reclaim of the 1.1332 rollover top and then the 1.1342 asia high (38.2% of the PCE fade fib) would break the lower-high chain
Eurozone manufacturing PMIs from 07:15 UTC and ECB speakers into London open could expand the current compressed range